Southeast Asia (Page 43)

BANGKOK – The US and China are taking goes wooing Cambodia’s West Point-educated prime minister with guns, wealth, and compassion, but the Chinese are reaping the most benefits.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Phnom Penh to sell military aid and restore the usually tense diplomatic relations between the two previous military adversaries just as Beijing’s largest military training in Cambodia was wrapping up.

After attending a Singapore security forum where he met his Taiwanese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun, and Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Manet and Defense Minister Tea Seiha, Austin made a one-day halt in Cambodia on June 4.

Coincidentally, Hun Manet was the US Military Academy at West Point’s second Thai student in 1999, 24 times after Austin graduated from that in 1975.

In the midst of the smoldering conflict along the Gulf of Thailand, which is used by China’s Navy and the US 7th Fleet’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, Beijing’s military improvements in Cambodia may have been facilitated by that.

The US is also concerned about Phnom Penh and Beijing’s plans to drill a river from the Mekong River to the Gulf of Thailand as well as Cambodia’s alleged human rights violations and assault on social and media rights.

Hun Manet was plainly boosted into energy last year by his autocratic father, former prime minister Hun Sen, who constantly welcomed China’s boost in Cambodia’s financial, diplomatic and military affairs.

China’s &nbsp, May 16- 30 Golden Dragon 2024 military exercises in Cambodia were” the first since Hun Manet became prime minister, indicating that he is continuing to expand his father’s embrace of China”, said Craig Etcheson, an author and researcher about Cambodian.

China unleashed their robot dogs of war while putting on a stunning display during the exercises. They were mounted on their backs.

The 15- day Golden Dragon 2024 exercises were led by China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) Southern Theater Command in guiding Beijing’s closest ally in Southeast Asia, the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces.

Joint drills were conducted off the coast of Preah Sihanouk province in central Cambodia, along with a training base with forests and mountains in the Gulf of Thailand.

Golden Dragon included “more than 1, 300 Cambodian troops, more than 700 Chinese troops, three large warships, and 11 Cambodian warships”, said Cambodian Major General Thong Solimo.

Maneuvers were also carried out by two helicopters and nearly 70 armored vehicles and tanks, accompanied by weaponized robot dogs. Additionally, Chinese live-fire exercises carried out anti-terror and rescue operations.

Cambodians learned how to use” Chinese sniper rifles” including” the QBU- 191, the latest precision rifle in service with the PLA”, China’s Communist Party- run Global Times reported.

After canceling US-Cambodge military exercises, Phnom Penh agreed to host Beijing’s first Golden Dragon in 2016. A significant portion of the Chinese weapons and equipment arrived by ship and were loaded at Cambodia’s Sihanoukville Port along the gulf.

Paul Chambers, a lecturer on security and politics in Thailand and Cambodia, said,” We can definitely say that the US- China rivalry has spread to the Gulf of Thailand.

He cited the recent expansion along the gulf by China’s Ream Naval Base in Cambodia.

Ream is used by Chinese and some international shipping, but Washington worries that Cambodia might eventually permit Chinese warships to base there, escalating tensions in the Gulf of Thailand, which opens the internationally disputed South China Sea.

” With China able to use Ream for its naval military vessels, and Dara Sakor]a private airfield in Cambodia leased to Chinese ] for its air force, Cambodia has become a key geopolitical chess piece&nbsp, of Beijing in Southeast Asia”, Chambers said in an interview.

” Yes, the US- China rivalry has extended to the Gulf of Thailand”, said Arizona State University associate professor Sophal Ear, who researches Cambodia’s politics.

” Thailand’s military relationship with the US is built on decades of established alliances, joint exercises and strategic partnerships”, he said.

Thailand regularly permits the US Navy to dock at facilities along the shallow Gulf of Thailand and regularly conducts large-scale military exercises with the Pentagon.

For example, in April, the nuclear- powered Nimitz- class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, armed with missile launchers, docked at Thailand’s Laem Chabang port near Bangkok, a routine that began in 2018 in the US 7th Fleet’s area.

” We are here to make sure we are ready to respond to any crisis in the area”, Carrier Strike Group Nine Commander, Rear Admiral Christopher Alexander, said after docking.

” We are here to deter aggression”, he said, accompanied by the USS Theodore Roosevelt’s more than 80 warplanes, including anti- submarine aircraft, strike fighters and planes equipped with electronic countermeasures.

The aircraft carrier, powered by two nuclear reactors, brought 5, 000 crew members from San Diego, California, bolstering the US Pacific Fleet in the Indo- Pacific region. &nbsp,

The US Navy stated on its website that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is “tasked with maintaining open sea lanes of trade and communication, and that it is capable of projecting air superiority to all points of the globe”.

In Cambodia meanwhile, China’s low- slung, flat- backed robot dogs became a big hit during the joint military exercises.

Grinning Chinese and Cambodian uniformed troops gathered around a robodog, which has a heavy black machine gun bolted onto the quadruped’s flat back in online photos and videos posted by participants.

A Chinese officer holds a CD- sized, black box with two short, protruding antennae, resembling a Wi- Fi router, remotely controlling the robot. Numerous Cambodian officers back away, laughing uncontrollably as the crouching machine slowly rises to a four-legged standing canine position.

The robodog is captured on video from the front camera of a robot dog, who is maneuvering through a makeshift maze of scaffolding and green netting. Two Cambodian soldiers who are present aim their assault rifles into the maze, ready to advance alongside the machine.

The robot dog leaves the green maze and stalks flat, dry land, blazing its weapon, causing black smoke to come out of its barrel while supported by Cambodian armored personnel carriers.

A curved magazine for bullets and a trigger are displayed on the mounted machine gun, which allows the gun to be taken off the robodog if a human wants to shoot it. Lettering on the robot dog’s gray surface identifies it as” B1 Unitree”.

According to Cyberguy.com, a website for computer news, Unitree Robotics is” a Chinese startup that has been developing its own line of robot dogs since 2016″.

<video controls src="”>

” Unitree’s latest product is the B2, a sleek and powerful robot that can run faster, jump higher and carry more weight than its predecessor, the B1″, it reported.

The B2 has two high- definition optical cameras, a pair of depth- sensing cameras, and a Lidar] Light Detection and Ranging ] remote sensing module that provides it with a 360- degree view of its surroundings.

A B2 robot dog’s energy comes from a swappable, lithium battery, boosting its speed to nearly 20 feet per second, twice as fast as the B1. The robot is shown climbing stairs and remaining balanced while crossing obstacles while operating autonomously after programming or using remote control.

Robodogs can hear through a microphone and speak Chinese, which allows them to “interact with humans and other robots,” according to Cyberguy.

The B2 is a “brand new intelligent species” that can walk for five hours carrying an 18- pound load, said Unitree Robotics, based in Hangzhou near Shanghai, China. The B2’s” control and perception” has a” standard configuration: Intel Core i5 Platform Function, Intel Core i7 User Development”, it said on Unitree’s website.

Unitree stated to 20,000 X-users,” Unitree B2 continues to evolve daily with the growth of AI.”

Futurism, a New York- based website reporting technological developments, described the “terrifying gun- toting robodogs” as” a dystopian vision of what the future of warfare could look like.

According to the Pentagon, the US Army is considering “exploring the realm of the possible” in the future of combat by arming remote-controlled robot dogs with state-of-the-art rifles, according to Futurism.

A US-based military contractor known as Ghost Robotics has already demonstrated a long-range rifle-equipped robot dog.

China’s mechanical deadly dogs performing in Cambodia intrigued analysts.

The display of robotic dogs is more of a demonstration of technological prowess than a direct threat, according to Sophal Ear in an interview.

The US ought to take note of these developments as part of the wider picture of China’s expanding military capabilities and its development of unmanned systems and AI-driven warfare technologies.

Beijing’s military exercises with Phnom Penh mean” increased military presence and surveillance, potential flashpoints for conflict, and a heightened state of alert among regional nations. According to Sophal Ear, this rivalry may have an impact on regional trade routes and economic stability.

The US military has been conducting an ongoing evaluation of these systems, according to Etcheson in an interview.” Many US defense contractors have produced operational combat robot dogs.

” I see the recent display by China in Cambodia as an attempt to demonstrate that they are up to par with the development of their rival]US power,” Etcheson said.

The growing influence of China in Cambodia may shield Phnom Penh from Washington and other critics.

” China has become the Cambodian regime’s guarantee against interference from the West’s insistence on respecting international law and a measure of respect for human rights,” said Rich Garella, an American former press secretary for Cambodian opposition leader Sam Rainsy.

According to Garella,” The regime is sacrificing its sovereignty and turning into a vassal state of China, as it has for centuries been,” in an interview.

Since 1978, Richard S. Ehrlich, an American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia and the recipient of Columbia University’s Foreign Correspondents ‘ Award, has been based in Bangkok. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books”, Rituals. Killers. Wars. &amp, Sex. — Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka &amp, New York “and” Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers &amp, Freaks “are available here.

Continue Reading

When finished, India may build a submersible center in the Bay of Bengal to serve as a haven for its sea-based nuclear deterrent against Pakistan and China.

This month, the Indian Defense Research Wing ( IDRW) reported that India’s optimistic Project Varsha, a sprawling 1, 680- acre marine center, is quickly taking shape on the Eastern Coast at Rambilli. New satellite images show a quick development, which indicates that the project is on track to finish in the designated time frame.

A fleet of over 12 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines ( SSBNs ) are housed at Project Varsha, a strategic naval base that was built. A vast underground complex, which satellite imagery reveals, includes tunnels thought to be submerged pens, is its most impressive feature.

The facility’s underwater temple promises to safeguard India’s SSBNs from unauthorized access from the skies while also providing essential help facilities for nuclear architectural. Above floor, the building of piers suggests the capability to handle a variety of area vessels, enhancing the base’s functional flexibility.

The place of Project Varsha makes it advantageous strategically for the American Navy to be closer to the Indo-Pacific’s crucial shipping routes. This close proximity makes it easier to collaborate with the Bhabha Atomic Research Center ( BARC ), India’s nuclear powerhouse, and allows for a quick response to regional threats.

Project Varsha is designed to improve considerably India’s marine deterrence, allowing the deployment of atomic- military submarines from a safe, underwater base. This affirms India’s commitment to upholding its status as a main maritime power and ensuring the country’s security.

To combat the two threat that Pakistan and China pose, India wants to include four SSBNs. Now, India has one lively SSBN, the Openings Arihant, which is armed with 12 K- 15 underwater- launched ballistic missiles ( SLBM ) with a comparatively small collection of 700 meters. India programs to commission its next SSBN, the INS Arighat, by the end of this year, about seven years after its launch.

India’s second SSBN, codenamed S4, is under development and is believed to be larger than its predecessors. S4 may have half the SLBMs of Outs Arihant and INS Arighat, according to satellite pictures. It could have 24 K- 15 SLBMs or 8 K- 4 SLBMs with a range of 3, 500 km.

India may possibly finish the S4 this year before setting up sea trials. Following that, India’s third SSBN will likely be based on the S4, with varying changes over its father.

However, Yogesh Joshi points out in a January 2019 War on the Rocks article that India’s sea-based nuclear deterrent will not have any credibility if it does n’t develop intercontinental range SLBMs. &nbsp,

In accordance with that assessment, Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda word in a Bulletin of the Atomic Professionals post from July 2022 that the K-15 SLBM’s collection may only allow it to target southern Pakistan, and that its SSBNs may not be able to target China without passing through the Malacca Strait.

Nevertheless, India is now developing the K- 5 SLBM with a range of 5, 000 kilometers, although the project is highly classified according to proper and security considerations. &nbsp,

Pakistan and China pose a dual nuclear threat to India, with the latter increasingly finding common ground in a” threshold alliance” with Pakistan, a relationship that is more formal than just general defense cooperation. &nbsp,

Pakistan’s first China-built Hangor class submarine, an export variant of the Type 039B Yuan-class SSK, was launched in May 2024, according to Asia Times. In April 2015, Pakistan signed a contract with China for eight submarines, with four built in China and the remainder in Pakistan.

If Pakistan equips its Hangor class submarines with nuclear-tipped Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missiles ( SLC M), which have a 450-kilometer range, it will have a significant deep strike capability.

Pakistan’s use of sea-based tactical nuclear weapons would help counterbalance India’s conventional military might while preventing potential preemptive strikes from its nuclear arsenal. Additionally, it would enable Pakistan to maintain a credible second- strike capability.

While China has been a primary enabler of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, it may opt to maintain a safe distance from Pakistan’s ambitions considering the threat of nuclear proliferation.

Chinese nuclear weapons and missile technology have flown from Pakistan to Libya, North Korea, Iran, and possibly others, which is not in China’s best interest because more countries with nuclear weapons in Asia and other regions could stymie the global balance of power. &nbsp,

In a March 2015 Carnegie Endowment for Regional Peace report, Iskander Rehman claims that Project Varsha will provide better cover than the Arabian Sea’s congested waters, making it possible for India to use the Bay of Bengal as an SSBN bastion against Pakistan and China. &nbsp,

Rehman points out that Project Varsha’s submarine base will allow India’s SSBNs to enter the Bay of Bengal without satellite or aircraft detection.

The Bay of Bengal will be protected by surface assets, including India’s upcoming third aircraft carrier and its escorts, giving an untapped location for India to launch SLBMs at Pakistani and Chinese targets.

Rehman says that India’s nuclear tensions will most likely result from the use of conventional assets to penetrate each other’s nuclear bastions, although it is unlikely for China’s SSBNs to move into the Bay of Bengal because they would have to traverse the congested Malacca Strait to do so.

The Indian Ocean was the location of three spy ships in the Indian Ocean for upcoming submarine and naval deployments, according to The Hindustan Times ‘ report from April 2024.

According to a report from the Hindustan Times, one of those ships, the Xiang Yang Hong 01, tested a high-end autonomous underwater vessel. According to the report, the vessel can conduct oceanographic surveys and oceanographic surveys for submarine operations while subsea-based at depths of up to 12 kilometers for three months.

China’s SSBNs may be threatened by India’s growing naval presence in the South China Sea as it seeks to establish a base for its SSBN fleet in the region’s disputed maritime area.

China’s new JL- 3 SLBM’s range of 7, 200 kilometers will allow it to use the South China Sea as a bastion for its SSBN fleet. This capability will make it possible for its SSBNs to travel through chokepoints like the Miyako Strait and the Bashi Channel to the Pacific’s open waters and place the US in SLBM range.

As part of an operational deployment to Southeast Asia, which included port calls in Malaysia and Singapore, a flotilla of three Indian warships, including the destroyer INS Delhi, the anti-submarine corvette INS Kiltan, and the fleet tanker INS Shakti, made a report last month from Newsweek.

Continue Reading

China’s news to impose a law that would prevent foreigners entering waters known as the South China Sea (SCS) may serve as the start of a strong military conflict with the US. The rules, known as the Administrative Law Police Techniques for Coast Guard Agencies, may come into force on June 15, 2024.

Harsh incidents between US alliance, the Philippines, and China, have been ratcheting up in recent months. In disputed waters surrounding the Scarborough Shoal, extraordinary film footage from Britain’s Sky News captured a number of large Chinese Coast Guard ships firing water cannons at a smaller Spanish Coast Guard deliver.

In Washington, DC, US President Joe Biden and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had a meeting to discuss local security immediately before. Under the supervision of their common security agreement, which included protection of coast guard warships when they are under military assault in the South China Sea, Biden reiterated “iron-clad” help for the Philippines.

Since the treaty requires that an “armed” attack be reported to the United Nations Security Council ( UNSC ) in the first instance, China’s use of water cannons, even though potentially lethal, has to date not been construed as such. The Philippines undoubtedly did not report the Sky News-filmed tragedy to the UNSC.

However, Marcos stated at the end of May Shangri-la Security Dialogue in Singapore that” a Filipino resident was killed by a deliberate act is extremely close to what we would consider a war work.” Is that a dark collection? About truly”.

Since any arrests made under China’s new legislation are likely to be conducted at gunpoint, increasing the likelihood of a fatal incident, this dark line will be even redder starting on June 15.

Marcos Jr has characterized China’s enforcement of the law as “escalatory” and “different” from whatever Beijing had recently imposed in the contested and geopolitical sea region, of which China claims nearly 90 % under its nine- dash line.

It would not be difficult to imagine Chinese coastline guard vessels being immediately confronted by US warships now patrolling the region in order to uphold freedom of navigation if Manila was forced to summon its mutual defense treaty for British assistance. &nbsp,

In that case, Biden would likely have to respond affirmatively, which would put off worries from American allies who are already agitated about signing formal security agreements with Washington, not the least of which is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ).

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated at Singapore’s Shangri-la Dialogue that “despite these ancient clashes in Europe and the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific has remained our focus drama of function” in further underlining Washington’s rely on the Indo-Pacific at a time of spiraling tensions in the South China Sea.

Chinese Lieutenant General Jing Jianfeng scornfully responded, saying that the US Indo-Pacific strategy was intended to” create division, provoke confrontation, and undermine stability.”

Given Austin’s apparent refocus on the Indo-Pacific, it seems likely that any Philippines request for US military assistance would receive favorable reviews in Washington, likely resulting in Democrats and Republicans in Congress receiving overwhelmingly bipartisan support.

Interestingly, one of Washington’s staunchest allies, the United Kingdom, having significant naval resources deployed in the South China Sea, may be girding itself for such an eventuality.

The sudden and unexpected announcement by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that a July 4 election date was at least in line with Britain’s and America’s on its Independence Day coincided with a proposal for national service, ostensibly in order to prepare for war and perhaps in the South China Sea.

It may be a conflict Washington is prepared for, with the exception of the disastrous global financial and economic shock waves that are likely to result from any direct US-China military conflict, with one key restriction: any direct military conflict occurring exclusively within the South China Sea region.

When one considers the Korean War from 1950 to 1953, it might not seem like such a far-fetched scenario. Around two million US service members fought ferociously against three million Chinese and 100 000 Soviet troops during this conflict, along with their respective South and North Korean allies. &nbsp,

Yet it was a conflict contained by then- US, Chinese and Soviet leaders, Truman, Mao and Stalin, respectively, within the territorial limits of the Korean Peninsula, deliberately avoiding spillover into the broader global context of the then- young Cold War.

Hopefully, a direct military conflict, including a limited theater war, will be avoided and ongoing diplomacy in various areas of cooperation between the US and China will prevail. However, a peaceful outcome should n’t be taken for granted. &nbsp,

Tensions in Taiwan and the South China Sea are almost on the rise by the day. Beijing and Washington are also experiencing increased trade frictions as more sanctions are placed on US tech exports to China, as well as new punitive tariffs on imports of Chinese green technology, including EVs. &nbsp,

Meantime, accusations over Chinese President Xi Jinping’s support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine war appear to be intensifying in Western circles. These include the UK Defense Secretary’s unsupported assertions that China directly supplied Russia with military supplies.

Additionally, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has claimed that Chinese support was effectively reconstituting Russia’s military in the form of drones, artillery, long- range missiles and tracking of battlefield movements.

During a visit to Brussels at the end of May, Campbell stated that this is a sustained, comprehensive effort that is intended to support Russia in secret.

One cannot merely dismiss the dangers brought on by US-China rivalry on numerous fronts, much like they did in the lead-up to the First World War when European powers competed for supremacy on the continent.

In today’s equally polarized and militarized environment, it is vitally important to identify and calm any potential trigger points, whether accidental or not, that may explode into a catastrophic, earth- shaking regional conflict.

The death of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, in a nation in Southeast Europe, was the start of the First World War. The death of a Filipino sailor in the tropical waters of Southeast Asia could be the catalyst this time. &nbsp,

The US and China must ensure they do n’t sleepwalk into a repeat of the 1914 tragedy in the second half of June 2024 or, indeed, at any point in the future.

Bob Savic is Senior Research Fellow, Global Policy Institute, London UK and Visiting Professor, School of International Relations and Politics, University of Nottingham UK.

Continue Reading