AI's rapid evolution | FinanceAsia

Asian listed technology stocks outperformed world indices in 2023. While lingering geopolitical worries and supply chain constraints muffled the industry’s early year outlook, the sector was buoyed by the near overnight mass adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI).

The release of user-friendly chatbots found an immediate audience. Within two months of its official launch, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history, according to Similarweb data. The popularity of the OpenAI-designed chatbot spurred other notable rivals, including Google’s Bard and graphic designer Midjourney. AI systems are now capable of producing digital art designs, college-level essays and software coding – all in just a matter of seconds.

Unsure which generative AI platform will ultimately reign supreme, investors have been adopting a “picks and shovels” approach, a mining analogy favouring equipment makers. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index returned almost 50% in 2023. Asian tech companies followed, with the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Information Technology Index rallying more than a fifth, compared to a 10% gain for the MSCI World Index.

Looking into 2024, there is little to believe tech’s outperformance will reverse, said Mazen Salhab, chief market strategist, MENA for BDSwiss, speaking to FinanceAsia. Salhab foresees the trend continuing beyond the next 12 months, considering the urgency for corporations to leverage innovative technologies capable of addressing headwinds such as tightening labour dynamics and higher costs.

Given its technological reach, experts see generative AI’s transformative properties creating significant economic value across a spectrum of industries. Bloomberg Intelligence predicts generative AI sales to reach $1.3 trillion over the next decade from a market size of $40 billion in 2022, representing a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42%, with rising demand for AI products adding $280 billion in new software revenues. 

These numbers are hard to ignore, explained Hong Kong-based Robert Zhan, director of financial risk management for KPMG China, to FA. He added that companies harnessing AI would not only establish a competitive advantage for themselves, but would also unlock substantial client and shareholder values, enriching the entire business ecosystem.

Concentrated gains

Yet, despite the broad-based optimism, generative AI value creation has been narrowly focussed with select names. The market cap of US-listed Nvidia, the graphic processing unit (GPU) chipmaker behind chatbots like ChatGPT, tripled in 2023, breaching the trillion-dollar level and quickly becoming the industry’s benchmark for AI sentiment.

The excitement surrounding AI pushed Nvidia’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple to 120 times, compared to Nasdaq’s market multiple of just 25 times, with analysts justifying AI premiums due to the sector’s rising income profile and robust sales outlook. While historical productivity cycles have often inflated speculative prices, even at the current trading multiples, Salhab doesn’t believe an asset bubble exists, arguing that visible efficiency gains are set to materialise in the near future.

Timing when those AI-related gains appear is riddled with obstacles for asset allocators. Chip designer Arm Holdings, which listed on the Nasdaq in September 2023, has been trading with a P/E as much of 200 times, nearly double that of Nvidia’s, reflecting the widening gap investors are assigning to companies with AI linked revenues.

Despite the elevated valuations, fund managers see generative AI investments as just one catalyst for the tech sector. 

The outlook is particularly promising for semiconductors, said Matthew Cioppa, co-portfolio manager of Franklin Templeton’s technology fund, in a conversation with FA. Cioppa highlights ongoing drivers such as proliferating demand for electric vehicles, internet of things (IoT), and cloud computing, noting that these technologies are at the early growth stages of their innovation, offering catalysts for semiconductor stocks.

The politics of chips 

There are also many political considerations for AI investors. 

As semiconductors serve as the underlying hardware for AI, experts say the technology will inevitably always be related to political decisions that can quickly rattle markets. In October 2023, the US tightened export controls on advanced chip sales to China, hampering Beijing’s AI ambitions and fuelling US-Sino tensions ahead of the US 2024 presidential election.

The US-China trade dispute has diminished the Chinese semiconductor market for US suppliers, acknowledged Cioppa. Although he argues that export restrictions are already priced into the market, Cioppa believes that the political fallout linked to semiconductor chips and AI technology remains a volatile factor that can never be ignored, especially when the world’s two largest economies are directly involved.

Nvidia’s share price has bucked the trend. While the company has thus far overcome trading hurdles by offering alternative chips, that balancing act appears vulnerable following the group’s third-quarter earnings announcement which mentioned a more challenging operating environment ahead. That caution is now being echoed by Nvidia’s Chinese customers who are also concerned about their own generative AI aspirations.

In late November 2023, e-commerce giant Alibaba reversed its decision to spin off its Cloud Intelligence Group, citing the US export controls of advanced Nvidia chips, while China’s Tencent said it would look to domestic semiconductor manufacturers to meet its demand. Even as Nvidia coordinates with the US government on developing approved chip designs compliant with the existing rules, the outcome and timing of decisions remains unclear.

This matters for any technical development, said KPMG’s Zhan. “[Because] geopolitics impacts which AI vendor is selected, companies will be cautious to ensure they meet local regulatory requirements, particularly across data privacy and security.”

Rapid development of Chinese-produced semiconductors may test market sentiment if incumbents like Nvidia underestimate those capabilities. While supply may meet chip demand in the current market, Nvidia believes those alternatives may not provide sufficient computing power to train the next generation of AI systems, as stated in the earnings report.

Technological challenges are also occurring alongside policymaker efforts to incubate a regulatory landscape that supports AI platforms without derailing its potential. In October 2023, London initiated a summit aimed at establishing an AI oversight committee, but soon discovered that Washington had similar intentions, reflecting a lost coordination opportunity. 

What regulations are ultimately introduced is uncertain, but it’s anticipated that numerous discussions and obstacles will arise in the years ahead, said Zhan. When asked what type of regulation works best, he shared: “I would like to compare AI to a human. Right now, AI technology is still in its infancy, so it makes sense that it should get more supervision and more controls to help it learn and grow. But as AI matures and learns, such controls should adjust proportionately according to the risk.”

It is a sentiment underscored by Franklin Templeton’s Cioppa, who said that “over time a combination of sovereign regulatory frameworks and private market solutions would effectively provide AI guardrails as not to stifle innovation or make it too difficult for smaller companies to compete with the mega cap companies on any advancements.”

2024 outlook

The uncertainties facing AI investors for the year ahead are magnified by higher capital costs such as elevated interest expenses as central bankers grapple with inflation, and also the increasing need for expensive data centres.

It will be interesting to see how AI stocks’ performance compare to non-tech companies in an overall weaker investment environment. Any company looking to bring AI into their businesses will have an expensive journey which could weigh on their earnings’ outlook.

As the market undergoes tapering, venture capital and private equity firms are adjusting their expectations. Hong Kong-based Alex Wong, head of M&A advisory at FTI Capital Advisors, told FA:

“Our clients, particularly those considering Hong Kong initial public offerings (IPOs), have recalibrated their expectations. Impacted by the weaker local market, some are exploring various alternatives at reduced exit valuations. Others are studying different listing venues, or altogether, deferring IPO plans and choosing direct exit strategies like trade sales.”

For fund managers preparing for the year ahead, these factors may bode well again for Asia’s technology stocks over non-tech names, particularly innovative companies backed by reliable cash flows and visible dividend payouts to shareholders. For investors that may mean holding onto 2023’s winner in 2024.

Peter Choi, a senior analyst at Vontobel, favours firms such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the largest constituent for MSCI AC Asia Pacific Information Technology Index which returned more than a third to investors last year, highlighting that TMSC powers AI businesses not only for Nvidia, but also for tech giants such as Google and Microsoft.

Yet, no matter which AI-related companies lead stock market returns, the generative AI attention will unlikely fade, explained Andrew Pearson, managing director of Intellligencia, an AI and analytics company in Hong Kong and Macau.  

“Fundamentally, generative AI is anything that can be imagined even if it doesn’t currently exist, making it good marketing material inside a PowerPoint presentation or even a book,” said Pearson, who recently published The Dead Chip Syndicate. Ominously, he added: “There will always be an audience for something that carries a 10% chance of destroying the human race. It is too big to disregard at this point.”

For investors, there may be a sense of irony by sticking to the same investment strategy in 2024, as arguably the most prudent approach to capture the market upside for a constantly evolving technology, is to repeat what has worked before. Will this trade work again? We will find out over the next 12 months.

This article first appeared in the print publication Volume One 2024 of Finance Asia.


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HQ Capital opens Singapore office; announces head of Asia | FinanceAsia

According to a business statement, international private equity firm HQ Capital has opened a new business in Singapore and appointed Michael Hu as Asia’s managing director.

Hu, based in Singapore, joined HQ Capital’s world executive council in soon 2023 and is in charge of Asia’s investment and business development activities. The new Singapore office will serve its private wealth and institutional investors in the region, whilst acting as a “gateway” for investment activities in markets including Australia, Greater China, Japan, Korea, India and Southeast Asia ( SEA ), according to the statement.

Since 1997, HQ Capital has invested in Asia and has an company there since 2007. HQ Capital invests worldwide with private collateral managers, focusing on the little- to middle- market. The agency also has offices in New York, Frankfurt, London, Shanghai and Tokyo, according to its site. &nbsp,

Hu served as a senior member of the secondaries & primaries investment group and oversaw investment relations and personal success solutions at private funding house Ardian, which is based in Singapore. Hu served as a principal at Greenhill &amp, Co. in Singapore and Hong Kong before becoming a director of the Asia Pacific ( Apac ) capital advisory business. I have 15 years of financial and personal ownership experience.

Marc Brugger, chief executive officer and chief financial officer of HQ Capital, said in the declaration:” Michael has a tremendous track record in secret capital investment, on both a primary and secondary basis, as well as co- investments, and a solid network in the region. Our existence in Asia, a growing market with unfilled investor demand, is further strengthened by the starting of our innovative Singapore office.

With a global software and a specialized investment focus, Hu added,” We will provide long-term, bespoke purchase solutions to personal wealth and institutional investors looking for different access to private markets. I look forward to working closely with our investors, HQ Capital’s global team, and top- tier private equity managers in Asia”.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ), which is pending approval, has approved HQ Capital’s application for a capital markets services license. &nbsp,

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HQ Capital opens Singapore office; appoints head of Asia | FinanceAsia

According to a business statement, international private equity firm HQ Capital has opened a new business in Singapore and appointed Michael Hu as managing producer and nose of Asia.

Hu will take over HQ Capital’s world professional commission and will be in charge of the Asia-focused investment and business growth activities. The new Singapore office will serve its private wealth and institutional investors in the region, whilst acting as a “gateway” for investment activities in markets including Australia, Greater China, Japan, Korea, India and Southeast Asia ( SEA ), according to the statement.

HQ Capital has invested in Asia since 1997 and has an company there since 2007. HQ Capital invests worldwide with private collateral managers, focusing on the little- to middle- market. The agency also has offices in New York, Frankfurt, London, Shanghai and Tokyo, according to its site. &nbsp,

Hu served as a senior member of the secondaries &amp, primaries funding group and led investment relations and personal success solutions before becoming a controlling director at secret investment house Ardian, which is based in Singapore. Hu served as a principal at Greenhill &amp, Co. in Singapore and Hong Kong before becoming a director of the Asia Pacific ( Apac ) capital advisory business. I have 15 years of financial and personal ownership experience.

Marc Brugger, chief executive officer and chief financial officer of HQ Capital, said in the declaration:” Michael has a tremendous track record in secret capital investment, on both a primary and secondary basis, as well as co- investments, and a solid network in the region. Our presence in Asia, a growing market with unmet investor demands, is further strengthened by the opening of our new Singapore office.

With a global platform and a specialized investment focus, Hu added,” We will offer long-term, bespoke investment solutions to private wealth and institutional investors looking for different access to private markets. I look forward to working closely with our investors, HQ Capital’s global team, and top- tier private equity managers in Asia”.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ), which is pending approval, has approved HQ Capital’s application for a capital markets services license. &nbsp,

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IWD Deal Analysis: How IIX’s WLB6 Orange bond helps women’s livelihoods in Asia | FinanceAsia

In a growing regional trend, December 2023 saw the sixth issuance of Impact Investment Exchange (IIX)’s Women’s Livelihood Bond (WLB) Series, the $100 million Women’s Livelihood Bond 6 (WLB6).

Altogether the IIX, since 2017, has raised $228 million to support women’s economic empowerment in Asia, with the overall trend in deal size on an upward trend. FinanceAsia discussed the investors, the rationale and the processes involved in order to celebrate International Women’s Day (IWD) 2024 on Friday, March 9 and the drive towards diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) across the region. 

The closing of WLB6 marked the world’s largest sustainable debt security and was issued in compliance with the Orange Bond Principles and aims to uplift over 880,000 women and girls in the Global South.

Global law firm Clifford Chance advised Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and Standard Chartered Bank pro bono as placement agents.

Proceeds from WLB6 will be used to promote the growth of women-focused businesses and sustainable livelihoods across six sectors: agriculture; water and sanitation; clean energy; affordable housing; SME lending and microfinance across India, Cambodia, Indonesia, Kenya and Vietnam. 100% of the $100 million proceeds designed to advance UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 5: gender equality and 25-30% designed to advance SDG 13 — climate action.

Robert Kraybill, chief investment officer, IIX, told FA: “The Women’s Livelihood Bond (WLB) Series is a blended finance instrument that pools capital from public-sector development finance institutions and private-sector investors. The public sector investors provide risk-tolerant “first-loss” capital in the form of subordinated notes, while the private sector investors purchase the senior bonds.”

“The WLB Series targets a range of private sector investors seeking a combination of high impact with low risk and an appropriate return. From the outset, beginning with the WLB1, the bonds have attracted both family offices and institutional investors. Initially, this was skewed towards family offices. As the WLB issuances increased, we saw increased interest from institutional investors, such that over 90% of the WLB6 was placed with institutions,” added Kraybill. 

For WLB6, there were global investors on the deal including from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific (Apac). The WLB6 bonds comply with the EU and UK securitisation regulations, making it easier for European institutional investors to participate. For example, one of the investors was Dutch pension fund APG Asset Management which invested $30 million.

Kraybill said: “Throughout building the loan portfolios for the WLBs – from sourcing and screening to due diligence – we integrate traditional credit criteria with impact criteria. We look to invest in companies meeting our credit and financial criteria while delivering meaningful positive impact.”

“We are proud that we have not experienced any payment defaults or credit losses on any of the WLB loan portfolios, demonstrating the resilience of the high-impact women-focused businesses that we work with, even in the face of challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The first two bonds in the WLB Series – WLB1 and WLB2 – have matured and been fully retired, meeting all of their obligations to bondholders,” Kraybill added. 

The IIX, which is headquartered in Singapore and has offices in Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, also tracks the impact outcomes generated by its investment throughout the life of the bonds and reports on the targets. WLB1 and WLB2 exceeded impact projections, according to IIX.   

Complex deal

Given the number of parties involved and a myriad of regulations and compliance, the deal was not easy to put together. 

Gareth Deiner, partner at Clifford Chance, explained to FA the law firm’s role in the deal: “We’ve been involved for several years on these transactions, and this is not the first woman’s livelihood bond that the IIX team has put together.”

Singapore-based Deiner continued: “Historically, we have acted on the trustee side, but we have been advising the lead managers of the transaction for the last three offerings. It’s approximately a three to four month execution process to make sure we get the documentation agreed and the structure in place. IIX do the underlying due diligence on the borrowers, which is necessary given that the financing is raised from the international capital markets. Together with their counsel, they work on the disclosure in the offering document for the bond transaction.”

“As counsel to the lead managers, we are responsible for the underlying contractual documentation for the notes and the offering, but it’s IIX who retain control over the loan documentation with the notes proceeds end-users, and putting the loan pool together. They’re doing due diligence on the on the underlying borrowers of the deal,” he explained. 

This is backed up by IIX’s due diligence. IIX’s Kraybill explained: “The financial due diligence conducted by our credit team is similar to that of other emerging market lenders. What sets us apart is the upfront impact due diligence and ongoing impact monitoring and reporting conducted by our impact assessment team. Our team screens potential investments against rigorous eligibility criteria to ensure they contribute to positive outcomes for underserved women and gender minorities in the Global South while often empowering women as agents of climate action.”

Navigating US legal rules and dealing with investors from around the world also added to the complexity. 

Deiner said: “Dealing with a wide range of investors, including qualified institutional buyers in the US, we needed to comply with US federal securities law, including limiting the sale of the notes to qualified purchasers under the US Investment Company Act. There were also certain structural considerations raised by the EU and UK securitisation regulation.”

“From a legal perspective, it was an interesting deal because there’s a wide range of highly technical substantive law, which required the input from specialists across the Clifford Chance network. We have the expertise across the globe and do a lot of sustainable financing work,” continued Deiner. 

“Recently we’ve advised on some market-leading and groundbreaking transactions in terms of bringing sustainability finance technology to capital markets transactions,” he added.

However, this deal, in particular, involved social governance goals. 

Deiner explained: “What we like about this particular transaction is that so much of the Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) agenda is about the environmental (E) angle, such as green bonds related to carbon transition and climate action. That encompasses sustainable  development goal 13 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).”

“However, you rarely hear about sustainable finance transactions that focus on the S and the G in ESG, which IIX champions. Each of the sustainable development goals (SDG) has its own hue, its own colour. This transaction focusses on SDG 5, which is gender equality, and are referred to as Orange bonds – orange being the hue for SGD 5. In addition, IIX has developed its own framework and principles to really drive that S in the ESG,” he added.

Tracking societal impact

There is still a key issue on how to track the impact of where the money ends up.

IIX’s due diligence process includes interviews with beneficiaries and stakeholders of investees,  using its own digital impact assessment tool to incorporate input from a broad group of female beneficiaries. This verifies impact claims while giving a voice and value to the women it is assisting, according to Kraybill.

He continued: “Our selection process for projects funded through WLB6 closely aligns with the objectives of The Orange Movement. Each of the bonds in the WLB Series adheres to The Orange Bond Principles, which focuses on empowering women, girls, and gender minorities, particularly in climate action and adaptation.”

IIX looks at the potential of each project’s mission, vision, goals, and business structure, to evaluate alignment with the core values of the WLB Series and The Orange Movement. Its impact assessment team conducts due diligence to ensure selected projects meet criteria outlined by The Orange Movement and contribute to promoting gender equity and addressing climate challenges in emerging markets, according to Kraybill.

With the rise of bonds connected to ESG and DEI, the scrutiny from investors is also increasing, especially with the prevalence of greenwashing. 

Clifford Chance’s Deiner said: “The legal landscape for green bonds and sustainability-linked bonds has evolved considerably in recent years, particularly regarding due diligence. When a company issues a green bond under a green bond framework, substantial work is required to ensure the bond’s integrity. This diligence has become a critical factor in investment decisions, as investors need to be confident that the environmental credentials are genuine and not merely an instance of greenwashing.”

“One of the key parts of the Orange bond initiative is achieving transparency in the investment process and decision, and the subsequent reporting, as the proceeds are going to an issuer who is on-lending it again, to, for example, a microfinance lender. It’s a combination of seeking an investment return and a view on the credit profile. The funds have specific objectives regarding capital allocation, and the appeal of the Orange bond aspect aligns with this focus,” Deiner added. 

$10 billion goal

The IIX has an ambitious goal of mobilising $10 billion by 2030 and optimism abounds. 

Kraybill said: “We remain optimistic about reaching our ambitious goal through sustained collaboration and concerted action, empowering women and girls worldwide while fostering inclusive and sustainable development.”

“Partnerships with the Orange Bond Steering Committee organisations, like the Australian government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the UN Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), Nuveen, and others, are vital in this endeavour. Together, we aim to build a gender-empowered financing system, mobilise new capital, and accelerate progress toward gender equality and women’s empowerment globally,” Kraybill added.

The Orange Movement is also building “Orange Alliances” at regional and national levels to bring together gender lens investors and other stakeholders. IIX is conducting training programs to train and certify Orange Bond verification agents.

“We’re introducing an “Orange Seal” for MSMEs and other organisations, which enhances their gender, DEI, and climate bona fides. We have expanded our transaction tagging functionality to include innovative finance instruments that adhere to the Orange Bond Principles framework. Furthermore, we’re eagerly anticipating the launch of the Orange Loan Facility, alongside numerous other initiatives to further the Orange Movement’s mission,” Kraybill said. 

He said: “We remain optimistic about reaching our ambitious goal through sustained collaboration and concerted action, empowering women and girls worldwide while fostering inclusive and sustainable development.”

The next bond could potentially be much larger than WLB6’s $100 million. 

Clifford Chance’s Deiner is also optimistic: “There’s a flow of transactions that we’re going to see over the next 12 months, and this an area that people are paying more attention to. The transactions have grown considerably over the years. These transactions have involved deals from around $20 million up to the latest offering of $100 million. So, there is clearly increasing demand for these transactions each year.”

Standard Chartered declined to provide a comment for the article.


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IWD Deal Analysis: IIX’s WLB6 Orange Bond helping women’s livelihoods in Asia | FinanceAsia

In a growing regional trend, December 2023 saw the sixth issuance of Impact Investment Exchange (IIX)’s Women’s Livelihood Bond (WLB) Series, the $100 million Women’s Livelihood Bond 6 (WLB6).

Altogether the IIX, since 2017, has raised $228 million to support women’s economic empowerment in Asia, with the overall trend in deal size on an upward trend. FinanceAsia discussed the investors, the rationale and the processes involved in order to celebrate International Women’s Day (IWD) 2024 on Friday, March 9 and the drive towards diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) across the region. 

The closing of WLB6 marked the world’s largest sustainable debt security and was issued in compliance with the Orange Bond Principle and aims to uplift over 880,000 women and girls in the Global South.

Global law firm Clifford Chance advised Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and Standard Chartered Bank pro bono as placement agents.

Proceeds from WLB6 will be used to promote the growth of women-focused businesses and sustainable livelihoods across six sectors: agriculture; water and sanitation; clean energy; affordable housing; SME lending and microfinance across India, Cambodia, Indonesia, Kenya and Vietnam. 100% of the $100 million proceeds designed to advance UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 5: gender equality and 25-30% designed to advance SDG 13 — climate action.

Robert Kraybill, chief investment officer, IIX, told FA: “The Women’s Livelihood Bond (WLB) Series is a blended finance instrument that pools capital from public-sector development finance institutions and private-sector investors. The public sector investors provide risk-tolerant “first-loss” capital in the form of subordinated notes, while the private sector investors purchase the senior bonds.”

“The WLB Series targets a range of private sector investors seeking a combination of high impact with low risk and an appropriate return. From the outset, beginning with the WLB1, the bonds have attracted both family offices and institutional investors. Initially, this was skewed towards family offices. As the WLB issuances increased, we saw increased interest from institutional investors, such that over 90% of the WLB6 was placed with institutions,” added Kraybill. 

For WLB6, there were global investors on the deal including from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific (Apac). The WLB6 bonds comply with the EU and UK securitisation regulations, making it easier for European institutional investors to participate. For example, one of the investors was Dutch pension fund APG Asset Management which invested $30 million.

Kraybill said: “Throughout building the loan portfolios for the WLBs – from sourcing and screening to due diligence – we integrate traditional credit criteria with impact criteria. We look to invest in companies meeting our credit and financial criteria while delivering meaningful positive impact.”

“We are proud that we have not experienced any payment defaults or credit losses on any of the WLB loan portfolios, demonstrating the resilience of the high-impact women-focused businesses that we work with, even in the face of challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The first two bonds in the WLB Series – WLB1 and WLB2 – have matured and been fully retired, meeting all of their obligations to bondholders,” Kraybill added. 

The IIX, which is headquartered in Singapore and has offices in Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, also tracks the impact outcomes generated by its investment throughout the life of the bonds and reports on the targets. WLB1 and WLB2 exceeded impact projections, according to IIX.   

Complex deal

Given the number of parties involved and a myriad of regulations and compliance, the deal was not easy to put together. 

Gareth Deiner, partner at Clifford Chance, explained to FA the law firm’s role in the deal: “We’ve been involved for several years on these transactions, and this is not the first woman’s livelihood bond that the IIX team has put together.”

Singapore-based Deiner continued: “Historically, we have acted on the trustee side, but we have been advising the lead managers of the transaction for the last three offerings. It’s approximately a three to four month execution process to make sure we get the documentation agreed and the structure in place. IIX do the underlying due diligence on the borrowers, which is necessary given that the financing is raised from the international capital markets. Together with their counsel, they work on the disclosure in the offering document for the bond transaction.”

“As counsel to the lead managers, we are responsible for the underlying contractual documentation for the notes and the offering, but it’s IIX who retain control over the loan documentation with the notes proceeds end-users, and putting the loan pool together. They’re doing due diligence on the on the underlying borrowers of the deal,” he explained. 

This is backed up by IIX’s due diligence. IIX’s Kraybill explained: “The financial due diligence conducted by our credit team is similar to that of other emerging market lenders. What sets us apart is the upfront impact due diligence and ongoing impact monitoring and reporting conducted by our impact assessment team. Our team screens potential investments against rigorous eligibility criteria to ensure they contribute to positive outcomes for underserved women and gender minorities in the Global South while often empowering women as agents of climate action.”

Navigating US legal rules and dealing with investors from around the world also added to the complexity. 

Deiner said: “Dealing with a wide range of investors, including qualified institutional buyers in the US, we needed to comply with US federal securities law, including limiting the sale of the notes to qualified purchasers under the US Investment Company Act. There were also certain structural considerations raised by the EU and UK securitisation regulation.”

“From a legal perspective, it was an interesting deal because there’s a wide range of highly technical substantive law, which required the input from specialists across the Clifford Chance network. We have the expertise across the globe and do a lot of sustainable financing work,” continued Deiner. 

“Recently we’ve advised on some market-leading and groundbreaking transactions in terms of bringing sustainability finance technology to capital markets transactions,” he added.

However, this deal, in particular involved social governance goals. 

Deiner explained: “What we like about this particular transaction is that so much of the Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) agenda is about the environmental (E) angle, such as green bonds related to carbon transition and climate action. That encompasses sustainable  development goal 13 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).”

“However, you rarely hear about sustainable finance transactions that focus on the S and the G in ESG, which IIX champions. Each of the sustainable development goals (SDG) has its own hue, its own colour. This transaction focusses on SDG 5, which is gender equality, and are referred to as Orange bonds – orange being the hue for SGD 5. In addition, IIX has developed its own framework and principles to really drive that S in the ESG,” he added.

Tracking societal impact

There is still a key issue on how to track the impact of where the money ends up.

IIX’s due diligence process includes interviews with beneficiaries and stakeholders of investees,  using its own digital impact assessment tool to incorporate input from a broad group of female beneficiaries. This verifies impact claims while giving a voice and value to the women it is assisting, according to Kraybill.

He continued: “Our selection process for projects funded through WLB6 closely aligns with the objectives of The Orange Movement. Each of the bonds in the WLB Series adheres to The Orange Bond Principles, which focuses on empowering women, girls, and gender minorities, particularly in climate action and adaptation.”

IIX looks at the potential of each project’s mission, vision, goals, and business structure, to evaluate alignment with the core values of the WLB Series and The Orange Movement. Its impact assessment team conducts due diligence to ensure selected projects meet criteria outlined by The Orange Movement and contribute to promoting gender equity and addressing climate challenges in emerging markets, according to Kraybill.

With the rise of bonds connected to ESG and DEI, the scrutiny from investors is also increasing, especially with the prevalence of greenwashing. 

Clifford Chance’s Deiner said: “The legal landscape for green bonds and sustainability-linked bonds has evolved considerably in recent years, particularly regarding due diligence. When a company issues a green bond under a green bond framework, substantial work is required to ensure the bond’s integrity. This diligence has become a critical factor in investment decisions, as investors need to be confident that the environmental credentials are genuine and not merely an instance of greenwashing.”

“One of the key parts of the Orange bond initiative is achieving transparency in the investment process and decision, and the subsequent reporting, as the proceeds are going to an issuer who is on-lending it again, to, for example, a microfinance lender. It’s a combination of seeking an investment return and a view on the credit profile. The funds have specific objectives regarding capital allocation, and the appeal of the Orange bond aspect aligns with this focus,” Deiner added. 

$10 billion goal

The IIX has an ambitious goal of mobilising $10 billion by 2030 and optimism abounds. 

Kraybill said: “We remain optimistic about reaching our ambitious goal through sustained collaboration and concerted action, empowering women and girls worldwide while fostering inclusive and sustainable development.”

“Partnerships with the Orange Bond Steering Committee organisations, like the Australian government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the UN Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), Nuveen, and others, are vital in this endeavour. Together, we aim to build a gender-empowered financing system, mobilise new capital, and accelerate progress toward gender equality and women’s empowerment globally,” Kraybill added.

The Orange Movement is also building “Orange Alliances” at regional and national levels to bring together gender lens investors and other stakeholders. IIX is conducting training programs to train and certify Orange Bond verification agents.

“We’re introducing an “Orange Seal” for MSMEs and other organisations, which enhances their gender, DEI, and climate bona fides. We have expanded our transaction tagging functionality to include innovative finance instruments that adhere to the Orange Bond Principles framework. Furthermore, we’re eagerly anticipating the launch of the Orange Loan Facility, alongside numerous other initiatives to further the Orange Movement’s mission,” Kraybill said. 

He said: “We remain optimistic about reaching our ambitious goal through sustained collaboration and concerted action, empowering women and girls worldwide while fostering inclusive and sustainable development.”

The next bond could potentially be much larger than WLB6’s $100 million. 

Clifford Chance’s Deiner is also optimistic: “There’s a flow of transactions that we’re going to see over the next 12 months, and this an area that people are paying more attention to. The transactions have grown considerably over the years. These transactions have involved deals from around $20 million up to the latest offering of $100 million. So, there is clearly increasing demand for these transactions each year.”

Standard Chartered declined to provide a comment for the article.


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Volume One 2024 magazine out now | FinanceAsia

We are delighted to announce that the first volume of FinanceAsia’s 2024 bi-annual magazine, is now available for your perusal

In this edition, we celebrate all the winners the FinanceAsia Achievement Awards 2023 and explain the rationale behind why each institution won. In addition to the Deal and House Awards for Asia and Australia and New Zealand (ANZ); this year we added a new category, the Dealmaker Poll, which recognises key individuals and companies based on market feedback. 

 

In feature format, Christopher Chu examines the potential and reach of artificial intelligence (AI) in Asia – the fast-moving technology is presenting both huge challenges and opportunities for investors. While it remains caught in the cross-hairs of geopolitics and regulation, he examines how AI could be a game-changer for productivity.

 

Ryan Li explores the proposed breakup of Chinese giant Alibaba and how the firm’s ambitions fit in with wider developments across China’s tech sector.

 

Also in the magazine, Andrew Tjaardstra reviews IPO activity across key Asian markets in 2023 and looks ahead to how public markets might perform in 2024 – while it certainly hasn’t been an easy ride for the region’s equity markets over the last 12 months, there have been some bright spots, notably India and Japan, which are set to continue their momentum this year.

 

Finally, read Ella Arwyn Jones’ exclusive interview with Rachel Huf, the new Hong Kong CEO of Barclays. Huf shares her transition from lawyer to leader, offering insights around her career path and the strategic direction of the bank in the Special Administrative Region (SAR) over months to come. 

 

Click here to read the full magazine issue online. 

 


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Blackstone appoints head of SEA private equity, aims to double Singapore headcount | FinanceAsia

A spokesperson for Blackstone has confirmed to&nbsp, FinanceAsia that the size of its Singapore private equity team will double in order to expand into Southeast Asia ( SEA ) in the next two years. The group had “evaluate options” across the board in SEA, including Singapore, the spokesperson added. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Additionally, the New York-based other asset manager has appointed Mumbai-based Aravind Krishnan, a managing director at Blackstone Private Equity, to direct Singapore’s private capital staff. Krişnan, who has been with Blackstone for 11 years, will quickly move to Singapore to help with the team’s expansion.

In a press release released on January 16, Blackstone Private Equity’s head of Asia, Amit Dixit, stated in an email that” Singapore is home to some of our most significant owners, as well as office for international and Asian firms and a gate to SEA. Our SEA private capital company will be led by Aravind, who has been with Blackstone for more than a decade. The Blackstone Singapore group now has more than 100 professionals.

Blackstone celebrated its eighth celebration in the Lion City with a recent move to a new business in Singapore. Over 100 folks work for the company overall it.

In the launch, Blackstone’s global head of personal ownership, Joe Baratta, stated,” This is a great time to be in Singapore, an important doorway to the SEA and its emerging options. Over the past ten years, we have grown more than threefold across all of our companies and forged valuable collaborations with our shareholders, the government, and businesses. Our footprints in SEA will be greatly increased by the development of our private capital business.

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UOB Malaysia makes successful debut sukuk issuance | FinanceAsia

The debut RM500 million ($ 106 million ) Basel III- compliant Tier 2 subordinated Islamic medium term notes ( Tier 2 Sukuk Wakalah ) has been successfully priced by United Overseas Bank ( Malaysia ) ( UOB Malaysia ).

The first people Level 2 Sukuk transaction to be issued by a foreign-owned banks on January 23 was the Malay ringgit business.

More than 40 investors participated in UOB Malaysia’s successful debut in the sukuk business with the tightest spread for a Baht Level 2 transaction, according to William Chua, managing producer, loan capital markets, investment banking, group retail banking, at CIMB.

One of the mutual direct managers for the transaction was UOB, who also served as the transaction’s shared lead manager.

According to a media release, this deal was timed to catch the window when the “market is beneficial with sufficient liquidity” is early in the year. &nbsp,

The Level 2 Sukuk Wakalah is rated AA1, whereas the Tier 1 UOB Malaysia is rated AAA with a robust prospect from RAM. &nbsp,

More than 72 members from 38 different organizations from across the investing area attended the owners ‘ conference on January 10 to support this agreement. &nbsp,

According to the transfer, the transaction was book-built with the deal size being beforehand announced to increase demand, which accelerated the identification of the actual interest and optimal pricing levels.

With a final order book of RM1.7 billion, which registered 3.39 times cover, UOB Malaysia was able to close the book at 4.01 %, the tightest end of the initial price guidance ( IPG). &nbsp,

Insurance at 25 %, asset management at 58 %, private banks at 2 %, banks at 11 %, and other corporations at 4 % were among the distribution partners for the issuance.

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Asia seeks 2024 redemption for IPOs | FinanceAsia

After a relatively poor 2022, while some Asian stock markets performed well in 2023, such as India and Japan, others including China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia languished as geopolitical tensions, rising interest rates and poor performing domestic economies knocked investor confidence.

There was also a downturn in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Asia Pacific (Apac), with 155 deals completed in 2023 with volumes down 23% compared to 200 deals in 2022, according to WTW.

Broadly, investors were spooked by a combination of higher for longer interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, a lacklustre economic performance in China post-pandemic with the property sector dragging confidence, and wider geopolitical tensions.

Will Cai, partner and head of Asia capital markets practice and co-chair of China corporate practice at law firm Cooley, told FinanceAsia: “2023 was a very challenging year for all major capital markets in Asia, with Japan as the only exception. There were several contributing factors: the slower-than-expected post-Covid-19 economic recovery in China, the current regional and global geopolitical tensions, as well as the high interest rates.”

He added: “High interest rates have a significant negative impact on capital market deals. The logic is very simple: if treasury bonds can provide 5% annual return, risk free, investors will expect a much higher return on high-risk equity deals – which unfortunately is not what many companies can deliver in a tough market. We probably need to see a moderate reduction on interest rates before equity investors return to the market.”

Amid the gloom, other avenues in the equity space beyond IPOs, performed relatively well, with banks needing to respond to changing client needs.

Kenneth Chow, co-head of Asia equity capital markets, Citi, said: “These are challenging market conditions and as a bank you need to be nimble and flexible. However, there are always opportunities in Asia, such as convertible bonds and block trades.”

Japan and India rising

There were arguably two Asian ‘star’ performers in 2023: Japan and India.

Despite a weak yen, Japan saw a breakout from years of deflation, corporate governance reform and a solid domestic economy, while India saw strong GDP growth of around 7% and a continuation of reforms.

Udhay Furtado, co-head of Asia equity capital markets, Citi, told FA: “Japan and India have recently emerged as IPO hotspots, while Indonesia has also seen positive momentum. There is an increasing interest in the energy transition story, including the makers of electric vehicles and batteries.” 

Japan, with IPO proceeds up 82% compared with 2022, was the standout Asian market last year.

Peter Guenthardt, head of Asia Pacific investment banking at Bank of America, said: “There are many opportunities in Japan with the fee pool increasing 20% in 2023, while overall fees were down by the same figure across Apac. The fee pool was twice the size of China this year. Japan could remain the largest fee pool in Apac in 2024.”

Guenthardt added: “In Japan, there has been an increase of IPOs, block trades and convertible bonds, with that trend set to continue. There has also been a rise in activist investors – for which it is the second most active market in the world.”

He continued: “Japanese companies are also looking to expand abroad for M&A opportunities, with the US being the most popular market and where sectors such as technology are particularly attractive.”  

In India, the market saw a big improvement in the second half of the year. While many companies conducted IPOs outside of India, the local stock markets saw the number of issuers increase by over 50% to 239, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). With the second half of the year doing particularly well, this bodes well for 2024, with some experts tipping the world’s fifth largest economy to lead the way in IPOs globally this year. 

Citi’s Furtado said in a media release: “We hope to see a turn in the IPO markets, as we have been seeing in India in late 2023 and we also expect to see [a] continued pick up in convertible bond activity (given refinancing efficiencies), alongside a robust follow-on/ block calendar.”

2024 Hong Kong bounceback?

One of the big questions for Asia in 2024 is can Hong Kong, one of the pre-eminent financing hubs, return to something resembling its former glory after years of protest and pandemic turmoil. Any turnaround in Hong Kong should also indicate improved confidence in Chinese equities given that the majority of companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) are Chinese.

PwC is predicting HK$100 billion ($12.8 billion) of deals in 2024 with around 80 deals in the pipeline, and KPMG is expecting Hong Kong to return to the top five of the IPO global rankings.

While the fundamentals are still strong in the Special Administrative Region (SAR), a recent reliance on Chinese companies, which have been buffeted by domestic headwinds and rising US interest rates, has damaged the market. In addition, the potential implications of the SAR’s new national security law have rattled global investor appetite.

However, in a sign of optimism, already in 2024, two Chinese bubble tea firms have applied for listings on the HKEX suggesting that market appetite could be rebounding in China – especially for companies supplying consumer staples.

Although stock markets in mainland China are providing stiff competition to Hong Kong, foreign investors and Chinese firms are still attracted to Hong Kong’s greater flexibility. In addition, geopolitical tensions mean that Chinese and Hong Kong firms are becoming more cautious about listing in the US.

Stephen Chan, Hong Kong-based partner at Dechert, told FA: “2023 was relatively challenging for the Hong Kong IPO market, with the number of deals and proceeds raised having declined year on year. We have seen a number of potential listing applicants choose to delay their listing timetable in view of the underperforming stock price of recent new listings.”

A sluggish stock market performance, low valuations for newly listed companies and the macroeconomic environment contributed to potential listing applicants opting for the wait-and-see approach, with the SAR facing strong headwinds.

Chan added: “The US interest rates hikes saw investors opt for products with high interest rates and fixed income.” This dampened the demand for IPOs, and in turn affected the valuation of potential IPOs and hence weakened the urge for potential listing applicants, explained Chan. 

He said: “Increased borrowing costs and lower consumer spending in general – due to the high interest rate cycle – have also affected the operational and financial performance of the potential listing applicants. Improvements to both investor sentiment towards the equity market and companies’ operating and financial performance would be essential before companies could reconsider fundraising through IPO.”

Certain sectors have been performing better than others, including technology, media and telecom (TMT) and biotech and healthcare companies. These are likely to continue to lead the IPO market in terms of the deal count and deal size in Hong Kong, especially with January 1, 2024’s HKEX regulatory reform for the new Chapter 18C (known as the GEM reforms) for specialist technology companies, and an expanding market for biotech and healthcare under Chapter 18A which was launched in 2018.

Chan added: “The HKEX has taken the opportunity to introduce a number of modifications to improve the fundraising process including the new settlement platform, FINI, which will shorten the time gap between IPO pricing and trading and hence reduce the market risk and modernise and digitalise the entire IPO process.”

“The GEM listing reform aiming to enhance attractiveness for SMEs to seek listings. . . will also boost the number of deal counts for the Hong Kong IPO market and provide SMEs with development potential a viable pathway for pursuing listing in the main board in the future.”

A continuation of the return of visitors to around 65% of pre-pandemic levels to the SAR in 2023 should also help build momentum in the local economy. In addition, the SAR has been reaching out to the Middle East for investment and is increasing its trade cooperation with Asean countries.

Asia outlook

While China appears to still be struggling to turn its economy around, Asia will continue its overall growth trajectory as the middle class grows, technology evolves and connectivity improves. The relatively young populations of Asean countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand will also continue to provide a boon for investors.

Cooley’s Cai said: “In terms of deal counts, there were still relatively more biotech deals in 2023. Part of the reason is that biotech companies must raise capital regardless of market conditions (and therefore, the price). We also see companies from the ‘new consumer’ sectors looking to IPO. We believe these two sectors likely can do well in 2024.”

He continued: “We hope 2024 will be better than 2023, but we may need to wait a bit longer for a booming market.”

There is certainly a long way to go before seeing the region’s previous robust IPO levels.

“2024 is going to be a volatile year with the upcoming elections in the likes of the US and India, but there is a strong pipeline of deals if risk appetite returns, which will partly depend on the pace of monetary loosening,” said Citi’s Furtado.

Alongside a host of elections, there are ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, meaning there is much uncertainty over global supply chains, oil prices and the inflation trajectory.

While investors will be hoping that inflation can be kept under control so the US Fed can start cutting rates sooner rather than later, solid economic fundamentals and growth in many large countries in the region should provide confidence in Asia’s equity markets moving forward.

This article first appeared in Volume One 2024 of the FinanceAsia print magazine which is available online here


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Moody's warns US, China it's time to change their ways

Moody’s Investors Service is actively and innocently prodding the two largest bears in the world economy.

Experts at the agency threatened to remove Washington’s final AAA credit score next month. The increase in US 10 time bond yields to 17-year peaks was exacerbated by that volley.

Beijing was the next city to speak Moody growl this week. As Asia’s largest economy struggles with an economic slowdown and a worsening real estate crisis, Moody’S changed its outlook on the Chinese government of debt from” stable” to “negative” on Tuesday ( December 5 ).

A day later, Moody’s went even further by telegraphing potential rating steps against state-owned bank tycoons, numerous Foreign government-backed organizations funding system assignments, and even Hong Kong and Macau.

Threatening downgrades for the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Development Bank, and another behemoths will undoubtedly work if Moody’s is attempting to capture the attention of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It will also affect international investors who are concerned that Beijing is n’t moving quickly enough to contain contagion risks.

In general, the urge is to respond violently to these instructions. The group of US President Joe Biden carried out that action.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responded to Moody’s risk to drop by saying,” This is a choice I disagree with. Treasury securities continue to be the world’s top safe and liquid asset, and the American market is ultimately strong.

China is also pushing up. Issues of Moody about the aspirations of China’s economic development and fiscal sustainability are unnecessary, the Ministry of Finance of Xi stated on Tuesday, expressing its “dissatisfaction.”

Beijing added that the fallout from financial and property issues is” stable” and that it is working to “deepen measures to tackle risks and challenges.” However, it’s important to take into account the potential benefits of rating agencies like Moody making a timely call for stronger action against the two economical powers.

Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, disagrees that the country merits a upgrade. Asia Times files / AFP picture

The rules of economic gravity however apply, as Moody’s served as a helpful warning to Biden, Yellen, and Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, in the case of America.

Faith in the money is rapidly eroding as the US federal loan surpasses$ 33 trillion, Biden’s White House raises spending, and the Fed tightens its restrictions with the most vehemence in years.

The price increases in gold and cryptocurrencies are merely the most recent example of how traditional Bretton-Woods economic realities are clashing with contemporary disregard for the ways in which markets you influence perhaps the largest economies.

China, as well. The 24 members of the Communist Party’s Politburo will soon meet to discuss policy priorities and determine rise objectives for the upcoming year. Following that, a course may be charted by the annual Central Economic Work Conference, which will bring up municipal and central government leaders.

A development goal of around 5 % is anticipated for 2024, according to economists at JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, and other major investment bankers.

An optimistic growth target, according to Goldman Sachs economist Maggie Wei,” may help lessen the risk of China falling into a self-fulfilling cycle of melancholy expectations, more depressing growth, and reinforcing negative expectations.”

However, Moody’s is reminding group leaders that economic gravity is more difficult than that.

According to Moody’s, the government and larger public sector may help financially strapped regional and local governments and state-owned enterprises in China, according to its reasoning.

When Moody’s warns of “increased dangers related to functionally and consistently lower medium-term economic growth and the continued reduction of the property sector,” it also speaks for many.

However, it is implied in bold font between the lines that many international investors are n’t buying Xi’s promises to carry out audacious structural reforms. And how new stimulus increases are then “posing wide downside risks to China’s macroeconomic, economic, and institutional strength,” according to Moody.

Chinese President Xi Jinping claims that he now favors more expansion driven by the private sector. Online Screengrab image

China’s finance minister responded by saying that mainland growth is improving in the October–December quarter and that the Chinese economy will account for more than 30 % of global GDP in 2023. That would be consistent with predictions made by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF).

However, there is no timeline for taking action to grow&nbsp, better, rather than just faster, in China’s new rhetoric. According to scholar Lee Lu at Nomura Holdings, more stimulus may become necessary in the short term. We also think it’s too early to say the bottom, he says, “despite the numerous trigger actions announced recently.”

The good news is that Premier Li Qiang is thought to have received Xi’s approval to speed up efforts to reinvigorate the private sector. Li’s team unveiled a 25-point plan package next month to level playing fields and increase funding for private companies.

Eight economic officials and firm tanks are involved in the program, including the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, the People’s Bank of China, National Administration of Financial Regulation, China Securities Regulatory Commission, &nbsp, and National Development and Reform Commission.

The goal is to significantly raise the loan to private enterprise ratio in order to increase innovation and productivity and support more powerful supply chains. According to Li’s group, the goal is to guarantee” ongoing revenue solutions” for private businesses that refrain from “blindly stopping, suppressing, withdrawing or cutting off money.”

The NDRC stated this week that China “is comfortable and more capable of achieving long-term robust growth, and constantly bringing new impetus and options to the earth through China’s accelerated advancement.”

According to scholar Diana Choyleva of Enodo Economics,” Beijing is serious about getting funds flowing to the healthier components of the home field, whether it be personal or state-owned.” &nbsp, They are not satisfied with entrusting the choice to the businesses, which have discriminated against the private market for a number of factors.

Jumpstarting the creation of a high-yield bond market to expand China’s money markets universe is an essential component of the business. Theoretically, a lively and varied range of debt offerings would boost options for private sector financing and boost China’s appeal to investors.

These, Xi’s efforts to make the yuan more popular on international businesses are advantageous. As concerns about the US dollar rise, the battle is gaining momentum. Nothing could hasten that progress more quickly than swiftly and openly putting in place significant reforms.

Here is where Xi and his team needed to win back the confidence of international investors. It is important to note that The Moody’s news did n’t destroy Chinese assets.

The most significant lesson from the Moody’s statement, according to economists at advisory organization China Beige Book, is that their team takes years longer than the majority of China viewers to reach an obvious conclusion. Little brand-new around. Continue.

However, analysts at Citigroup Global Markets predict that in 2024, China’s investment-grade payment issues will be more alluring than those of US counterparts. Following the Moody’s information, Citi experts wrote,” The market has now priced this in to some extent, and China investment-grade has some price.”

In Chongqing, China, a butler is seen strolling along dingy bridges with brand-new residential properties in the distance. Photo: Zhang Peng, LightRocket, CNBC Screengrab, and Getty Images

As Beijing works to regulate real estate markets, Citi experts also cited China’s” stronger, but still fragile micro story.” Chinese money bonds with an investment class are currently up about 5.4 % in 2023.

According to Citi researchers,” China risks are primarily in the price.” The Chinese offshore credit market, which is regarded as an asset and money diversifier for regional investors, tends to do well in times of inland equity-market volatility.

Analysts ‘ concern that China’s time of raising GDP rates solely through stimulus and funding is over, however, is where Moody makes a point.

For starters, “remaining plan room may be limited, as we believe central authorities needs to balance moral liability problems when supporting local governments with substantial debt burdens,” according to scientist Samuel Kwok at Fitch Ratings.

Another is that the quality of mainland growth can only be improved by strong financial retooling that unlocks China’s longer-term growth potential. This trend toward trigger over reform explains why S&amp, P Global Ratings predicts that China will grow below 5 % into 2026.

According to S&amp and P record analyst Eunice Tan, China’s real estate market is still under stress despite stimulus. The cash patterns of property developers and heavily indebted regional government borrowing vehicles are being dented by limited access to credit assistance and higher corporate debt utilize.

As a result, S&amp, P’s Tan claims that the rise website for the Asia-Pacific is moving from China to South and Southeast Asia. Tan notes that this change may limit China’s lenders ‘ medium-term face while enhancing those of India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

China’s imports decreased by 0.6 %, despite data released on Thursday showing a 0.5 % increase in exports in November year over year. More policy supports are required to promote demand, according to a word from UBS analysts, and the data more dashed hopes of regaining China’s consumption-led economy.

According to OANDA researcher Kelvin Wong, “domestic need has remained weak in China despite continued revival efforts by policymakers via intended monetary and fiscal stimulus steps.”

Therefore, according to Wong,” It seems that the previous one-month treatment of transfer growth recorded in October is probably a “blip” and November’s bad year-on-year growth rate suggests the rolling twelve months of bad growth trend in imports remains intact.”

At the Horgos Port in the autonomous region of north China’s Xinjiang Uighur, business containers can be seen. Image: Xinhua

Global traders are anxiously anticipating the Politburo’s next chamber event as difficulties mount. This once-every-five-year program typically takes place in early December.

The fact that it has n’t been scheduled yet has led to rumors that Xi wants to address a number of pressing issues, such as rising local government debt, deflationary pressures, and real estate to record youth unemployment.

As a madly polarizing 2024 presidential election draws near, the US even faces significant obstacles. The US government’s estimated annualized loan interest payments have increased to the$ 1&nbsp, trillion level, among other things.

Shareholders are free to disregard the financial paths in Washington and Beijing that Moody’s, S&amp, P, and Fitch have to say. However, as payment prospects deteriorate, it is important to keep in mind that some observers, analysts, and investors are n’t buying the party line, despite Biden and Xi’s insistence that they are on top of their individual debt problems.

Following William Pesek on X, previously Twitter, at @WilliamPess

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