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After the surprise Hamas terrorist attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023, many observers were puzzled about how Israel could have been caught completely off-guard.

We were among those puzzled, and proposed three possible reasons:

1. Israeli leaders may have underestimated Hamas’ capabilities and misunderstood its intentions.
2. Israeli intelligence may have been tricked by Hamas’ secrecy, missing signs that it was planning and training.
3. Israeli intelligence leaders may have been so wedded to their prior conclusion that Hamas was not a major threat that they dismissed mounting evidence that it was preparing for war.

New revelations from recent media coverage have shed additional light on what happened, which mostly confirm the role of faulty threat assessments, Hamas’ improved operational security, and confirmation bias.

On October 29, The New York Times reported that since May 2021, Israel’s military intelligence leaders and National Security Council had officially assessed that “Hamas had no interest in launching an attack from Gaza that might invite a devastating response from Israel.”

As a result, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and security leaders diverted attention and resources away from Hamas and toward what they saw as more existential threats: Iran and Hezbollah.

For instance, in 2021, the Israeli military cut personnel and funding for Unit 8200, a key military surveillance unit watching Gaza. In 2022, the unit stopped listening in on Hamas militants’ radio communications, though it apparently gathered other intelligence.

The US made a similar shift, focusing on the Islamic State group and other militants, leaving intelligence gathering on Hamas to Israel.

Revealing surveillance

Within days of October 7, Egypt revealed that it had shared with Israel high-level warnings of impending Hamas violence – “something big.”

A Guardian report in early November revealed that Hamas leaders who had planned the attack took special measures to avoid being detected by Israeli intelligence, including passing orders only by word of mouth, rather than by radio or internet communication. But Hamas’ planning did not totally escape detection.

The Times of Israel reported in late October that Israeli troops of the Combat Intelligence Corps surveilling the Israel-Gaza border months before October 7 saw Hamas militants digging holes, placing explosives, training frequently and even practicing blowing up a mock fence. Their warnings were ignored.

The Financial Times reported in early November that Israeli security leaders had also ignored specific alerts of Hamas training exercises from civilian volunteers in southern Israel who eavesdropped on Hamas communications.

The Financial Times also reported that weeks before the Hamas attack, Israeli border guards sent a classified warning to the top military intelligence officer in the southern command. They had detected a high-ranking Hamas military commander overseeing rehearsals of hostage-taking and warned that Hamas was training to imminently “blow up border posts at several locations, enter Israeli territory and take over kibbutzim.”

The officer who received the message dismissed it as an “imaginary scenario.” Other leaders considered the warning unremarkable.

A detailed plan

On November 30, The New York Times reported that Israeli intelligence obtained a detailed Hamas plan of attack more than a year before October 7.

The plan ran to 40 pages and included specifics that actually were part of the attack, including an opening rocket barrage, drones knocking out security cameras and automated weapons at the border, and gunmen crossing into Israel in paragliders as well as on foot and by motorcycle.

The newspaper also reported that in July 2023, a Unit 8200 analyst observed Hamas training activities that lined up with the Hamas plan, which was code-named “Jericho Wall” by Israeli officials.

The analyst determined that Hamas was preparing an attack designed to provoke a war with Israel. Superior officers dismissed her assessment, saying the “Jericho Wall” plan was only aspirational primarily because they thought Hamas lacked the capacity to carry it out.

A reflection on the Israeli intelligence community

These recent reports make clear that Israeli officials had enough intelligence to step up security. The fact that they did not suggests they may have dismissed all that evidence in favor of other information they had, which suggested Hamas was not interested in or capable of going to war with Israel.

But that may not have been the only problem. Recent studies point to increasing fissures in civil-military relations in Israel. For example, populist right-wing Israeli politicians in recent years have viewed senior intelligence officials with skepticism as potential leftist rivals, which could have led Netanyahu’s Likud government to be hostile to alternative viewpoints and various intelligence warnings on Hamas.

Although we cannot observe the extent of politicization among the senior Israeli intelligence ranks, the behavior of intelligence leaders who dismissed warnings prior to October 7 is consistent with groupthink, a phenomenon that experts say may occur when social pressure, a leader’s influential position or self-censorship leads groups to express homogeneous views and make uniform – and usually poorer – decisions.

The fact that superiors ignored warnings from the Unit 8200 analyst and the Border Defense Corps is consistent with the idea that groupthink about Hamas’ capabilities and intentions led to confirmation bias dismissing Hamas as an imminent threat.

Some of the ignored intelligence analysts were young women, who have said they believe sexism could have been a reason male superiors ignored their warnings. Another form of prejudice may also have been at play. Israel has focused intensely on its technological advantages over its enemies, assigning large numbers of personnel to electronic and cyber warfare units.

Perhaps technological optimism, faith in what the Financial Times described as “aerial drones that eavesdrop on Gaza and the sensor-equipped fence that surrounds the strip,” won out. Maybe a reliance on technology led to a false sense of security, and even the dismissal of other forms of intelligence that, it turned out, had uncovered Hamas’ real plans.

In the wake of the Hamas attacks, Israel’s security apparatus will need to investigate these weaknesses further and undertake reforms. So far, it remains unclear how many people, and at what levels of the Israeli government, received the various warnings in advance of October 7.

Therefore, it’s not yet clear what specific changes in Israel might prevent a similar failure in the future.

John Joseph Chin is Assistant Teaching Professor of Strategy and Technology, Carnegie Mellon University and Haleigh Bartos is Associate Professor of the Practice in Strategy and Technology, Carnegie Mellon University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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In November 2023, North Korea decided to close its foreign diplomatic missions in Angola, Hong Kong, Nepal, Spain, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Senegal and Guinea. 

These closures likely come as the result of financial hardship due to international sanctions as well as the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But an impending domestic food crisis may also be behind the decision. For a country that prioritizes spending on its military and luxury goods for its elites, a food shortage would stretch limited resources even further.

A North Korean foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement on November 3, 2023, that “we are carrying out operations to withdraw and establish diplomatic missions in accordance with changing global environments and national foreign policy.” 

But the likely reality is that the regime is struggling to support not only those living in North Korea but also those in missions abroad. The Kim Jong Un regime is under pressure from sanctions that have been imposed in response to North Korea’s ongoing nuclear and ballistic missile testing and launches. 

The resolutions adopted by the United Nations Security Council have called for the reduction of North Korea’s diplomatic missions and consular posts and have expressed concern that North Korea has been abusing immunities granted to its diplomats.

Many of these resolutions were passed between 2006 and 2017. For years, Kim Jong Un has found creative ways to evade United Nations sanctions to import luxury items, but his reserves might be running low. 

The announcement of embassy closures could be a sign that the government is looking for ways to trim back in an effort to continue to afford the leader’s lifestyle.

These closures could also be a sign that North Korea is looking to relocate diplomats and other workers to more favored nations, such as China and Russia, to make money that can be remitted to Pyongyang. 

These redeployments could provide further opportunities to engage in cyber or other illicit activities to raise money for the regime, just as the Lazarus Group, one of North Korea’s most active cybercriminal groups, has been able to do.

Over the last two years countries such as Romania, India, Indonesia and Bulgaria have closed their embassies in Pyongyang. This is a result of both Covid-19 pandemic restrictions within North Korea and waning diplomatic relations, as North Korea prioritizes its relationships with China and Russia. 

In his first trip abroad since the pandemic, Kim Jong Un traveled to Russia in September 2023 where he and Vladimir Putin “openly discussed unprecedented levels of potential technical cooperation.”

Interviews with North Koreans have revealed the state of the country’s food shortage crisis. Similar to the famine in the 1990s, in which an estimated “two to three million people died of starvation and hunger-related illnesses,” signs of starvation and death are once again appearing. 

One interviewee expressed that loyalty for Kim Jong Un has been waning — “before Covid-19, people viewed Kim Jong Un positively. Now almost everyone is full of discontent.”

In areas along the Chinese border, the situation has gotten so bad that the government has resorted to draconian measures and tougher restrictions to prevent its citizens from fleeing. A second famine within a generation could have devastating social and political impacts.

In early November 2023, North Korea announced a new public holiday, known as Missile Industry Day (missailgong-eobjeol), to be celebrated on November 18. 

This day not only celebrates the launch of North Korea’s Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile in 2022, but also commemorates the first time the leader’s daughter, Kim Eun Ju, known more widely as Kim Ju Ae, appeared beside him in public.

In a nation that designates public holidays solely for propaganda purposes, this new holiday is undoubtedly an attempt to legitimize dynastic rule for the Kim family. The holiday will help to solidify Kim Eun Ju’s role and aims to display the stability and longevity of the regime. 

Kim Jong Un is using national pride in the country’s missile program and the Kim family cult of personality to distract from his failure to improve North Korea’s economic situation.

All these circumstances could signify that Kim Jong Un is facing adversity both abroad and at home. North Korea’s borders have not reopened since their closure in 2020 and are likely to remain closed given the looming food crisis. 

With increasing economic problems, intensifying dependency on China and Russia, and further build-ups along the country’s borders, closing its foreign missions is one of the few remaining ways to consolidate resources for the regime.

The new public holiday celebrating the country’s missile program and the showcasing of the leader’s daughter show the efforts that Kim Jong Un will go to in order to bolster legitimacy, despite the country’s economic decline and the increasing hardships faced by North Koreans.

Kim Jong Un will continue to direct resources towards the nuclear and ballistic missile programs while demanding sacrifices from the people and finding ways to cut government expenses to ensure the program’s longevity — and his own.

Emma Whitmyer is Program Officer for the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) in New York.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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Warning: this article includes spoilers for Blue Eye Samurai.

Netflix’s Blue Eye Samurai is an anime series set during the opening decades of Japan’s Edo period (1603–1867), also known as the Tokugawa period. Among other subjects, the series addresses – with varying degrees of histocial accuracy – violence, the role of samurai and what life was like for women and people of mixed heritage.

Japanese society was strictly stratified at that time, as the series frequently makes clear. The hierarchy, ranked in descending order, consisted of the samurai, farmer, artisan and merchant classes.

Even in the early stages of the 17th century Edo period, the entire samurai ruling class centered around the role of the warrior. But by the time the series opens, in the 1650s, the country was unified – a political and economically stable society – and this meant that the role of the samurai was in decline.

Nevertheless, the samurai still defended the ideals of loyalty, courage and honor. It is these ideals that motivate Blue Eye Samurai’s principal characters, Mizu, Ringo and Taigen.

Real people of mixed heritage in Edo-period Japan

Mizu (Maya Erskine) is a mixed-heritage white and Japanese woman living undercover as a male swordsmaster. She undertakes a quest for vengeance against four British men (one of whom may be her father) who illegally remain hidden while the Japanese isolation policy, sakoku, remains in effect.

Under sakoku, only Dutch traders were permitted entry to Japan, and they were confined to a small man-made island off Nagasaki. The isolationist policy of the Tokugawa shogunate (Japan’s military government during the Edo period) effectively closed the country’s borders to all outside influences through a number of edicts issued between 1633 and 1639.

But it might help viewers of Blue Eye Samurai to know that during the preceding so-called Christian Century (1540 to 1630), the Japanese authorities had – with varying degrees of enthusiasm – accommodated a large number of foreign traders and pirates who were resident in Japan and active in Japanese waters. We can presume the four renegades are the remnants of these pirates – including Blue Eye Samurai’s main antagonist, the evil Abijah Fowler (voiced by Kenneth Branagh).

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In the Edo period, women were expected to be subservient – but not weak. As the series depicts, women presented themselves as characteristically beautiful, with elaborate hair styles, makeup and clothing. They were supposed to be educated and compliant.

Mizu is particularly burdened by many of the stereotypes of Japanese society. Not only is she a woman, but she is of mixed heritage, something which is repeatedly referred to as being “less than human” or “impure”. She has to conceal her difference in a masculine disguise.

This is reminiscent of the fate of the children of William Adams, a 17th-century English sailor who became an honorary samurai. They disappeared from historical record after 1635. The series captures the covert presence of any person of mixed European and Japanese heritage during this time.

The real upper classes in the Edo period

The life of the upper classes and the choices open to them are depicted in accurate detail in the portrayal of Akemi (Brenda Song) and her family.

Although called a “princess” (perhaps for clarity to western audiences unfamiliar with Japan’s royal hierarchies) her status is more that of a “lady”, as she is not of royal blood. Her father (Patrick Gallagher) is a self-made lord. Nonetheless, as the Japanese emperor’s role was essentially ceremonial in this period, power did lie with feudal lords such as her father. It is accurate to suggest, as the show does, that he would gain higher social status by marrying off Akemi to a member of the ruling shogun’s family.

The strong willed “princess” Akemi excels at many of the fine arts and courtly practices as was expected of a woman of their class. This includes tea ceremony, Renku poetry, flower arrangement, painting, dancing and the game of go.

We follow her as she deploys these skills to achieve independence in a patriarchal society, including resorting to becoming a geisha – which required skills similar to those possessed by women of the ruling classes. Although the proposition is initially repulsive to her, in the end she accepts that marriage to the new shogun’s brother, rather than to her childhood sweetheart Taigen (Darren Barnet), will permit her an active role in the shogunate’s court.

Some people in Edo-period Japan lived outside expected gender roles, including geisha. They could run their own businesses, and the life offered women a level of independence unknown to the other classes, as demonstrated by the character of Madame Kaji (Ming-Na Wen).

The reality of violence in Edo-period Japan

The vivid violence in Blue Eye Samurai suggests that life in the unified Edo Japan was a lot less peaceful than reality.

Due to the long Edo period’s economic and political stability, the role of a samurai as a warrior had become reduced to a largely ceremonial one. Sword skills were demonstrated in stylized duels and challenges over honor, rather than on the battlefield.

The hostility between Mizu and Taigen is plausibly founded on the latter’s perceived loss of honor after losing their duel. However, a storyline suggesting that Abijah Fowler will succeed in usurping the shogun because he has access to firearms, which would trump the Japanese weapons of swords and spears, is a little disingenuous.

In reality, there were gunsmiths in Japan producing guns throughout the Edo period, and for a century before this story is set. As guns required less skill to wield than the sword or the bow, they were seen by some samurai as contrary to their values. The sword was simply the more practical weapon in the average small-scale Edo-period conflicts.

Despite diverging from some of the history, overall The Blue Eye Samurai is an enjoyable, fairly accurate and visually sumptuous tale of Edo-era Japan.

Ruth Starr is a lecturer in the history of Japanese art and architecture at Trinity College Dublin.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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