Sure A Not

The nomination of China hawks like Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Elbridge Colby for top leadership positions by the incoming Trump 2.0 administration seems to have good things for Taiwan. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Sydney Morning Herald&nbsp, journalist Lisa Visentin is among those who&nbsp, conclude&nbsp, that” Trump has sent an early information to Beijing that Washington is doubtful to leave Taiwan”. A recent&nbsp, Taipei Times&nbsp, editorial&nbsp, exulted&nbsp, that the content of Trump’s proposed management team “indicates that the US would maintain its strong support for Taiwan”.

Alas, the reality is more complicated. Washington is currently anticipating wet climate on two sides in Taiwan.

The first is a requirement that Taiwan raise its defence spending from its current 2.5 % of GDP. Trump&nbsp, said&nbsp, the number may be 10 %. Lest we dismiss that as everyday Trumpian rhetoric, Colby, the recently appointed secretary of defense for plan, has &nbsp, said&nbsp, the same thing.

A resumptuous US-China trade war, which would directly harm Taiwan among different US friends by stifling China’s earnings from the US market and therefore stifling China’s ability to buy the goods from other Asia-Pacific nations, is the next anticipated tsunami.

But there’s more. Trump 2.0 is more likely than any US state since the Korean War to end US support for an automatic Taiwan despite the presence of China hawks in the Oval Office.

The US’s present support for Taiwan times up to 1950. In 1949, the Chiang Kai-shek state and the Republic of China under Mao Zedong’s control had taken control of mainland China, forcing the Republic of China state and its remaining troops to relocastate Taiwan. &nbsp,

Beijing planned to end the Chinese Civil War by attempting to win Taiwan in the fall of 1950 after Washington’s assurance had declined. However, the Korean War’s onset in June of that year persuaded US President Harry Truman to place the US Navy to stop PRC troops from crossing the Taiwan Strait. Thereafter, Taiwan became a US territory.

Fast forward to the current, and for a while, there are several reasons why once-reliable US assistance immediately seems unsure.

Second, Trump rejects the bipartisan isolationist perspective that has dominated US foreign policy since the end of World War II. The US’s great strategy has long allowed Taiwan to choose its own global social destiny.

Taiwan turned into a successful Chinese progressive democracy, exemplifying the kind of change that Washington promotes globally as its original Leninist government effectively implemented land reform and later replaced it with political liberalization. This project is based on America’s self-image, but it also reflects a well-known theory that democracy promotes harmony because democratic governments have a tendency to avoid conflict. &nbsp,

An independent Taiwan also aids in establishing the democratic social order that is supported by the US in Asia. &nbsp, As for, acquiescing to a hostile PRC invasion of Taiwan may diminish, perhaps fatally, America’s placement of corporate leadership in the Asia-Pacific area. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Trump’s thinking about Taiwan, but, is not relatively based on intellectual or strategic views that make Taiwan’s independence beneficial to the United States.

Trump rather emphasizes&nbsp his hatred toward Taiwan for allegedly stealing semiconductor production from the US and for failing to pay for US military protection, despite the US-Taiwan Relations Act’s prohibition against military defending Taiwan and Taiwan’s responsibility to pay for the weaponry the US provides. &nbsp,

On four times, Biden&nbsp, said&nbsp, officially he would give US forces to protect Taiwan in the event of a PRC harm. Trump, in contrast, frequently expresses reluctance to defend Taiwan because it is too little, too near to China, and unimportant in comparison to that country. On the other hand, Trump touts his regard for and connection with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and has &nbsp, also admitted&nbsp, to taking guidance from Xi.

Another reason to doubt whether the US will continue to support an intelligent Taiwan is that Trump’s China bird advisors does not really dictate US plan. True, Trump allowed his team to impose a tougher US position on China during his first word.

They altered the language of important US policy statements to present China as an antagonistic state determined to stifle America’s rise to worldwide influence. According to a technique report released by the incoming Trump presidency in January 2021, the US has a strong curiosity in preventing the PRC from seizing Taiwan. The Uyghur Muslim minority’s harassment was also referred to as “genocide” in the previous Trump White House.

Trump, but, also showed that he was willing to compromise corporate objectives in the search for a bilateral trade agreement with Beijing. Trump&nbsp, decided&nbsp, to cut US sanctions against Chinese communications large ZTE as a favour to Xi in 2018. He also&nbsp, reportedly&nbsp, told Xi he endorsed China’s severe cure of Uyghurs.

However, the anti-China, pro-Taiwan eagles in the Trump 2.0 management may not last long. The turnover rate among senior officers was incredibly high during Trump’s first name. &nbsp,

Third, the effect of other top advisors in the incoming Trump presidency less friendly toward Taiwan, quite as mega-billionaire Elon Musk and near-billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, may outweigh the influence of the pro-Taiwan advisors. &nbsp,

Ramaswamy has &nbsp, said&nbsp, Taiwan matters to the United States only because it makes advanced semiconductors and that after ramping up its own chip production, America should stop protecting Taiwan. Meanwhile, Musk is thoroughly compromised by his business interests in China, where his most profitable Tesla factory is located. &nbsp,

Musk has &nbsp, called&nbsp, himself “kind of pro-China” .&nbsp, He takes the PRC government’s position that Taiwan is part of China, equating Taiwan’s relationship to the PRC with the US federal government’s relationship to the US state of Hawaii.

Musk wants Taipei to comply with Beijing’s demands to prevent a cross-strait conflict that would disrupt the supply chains Musk’s businesses rely on. Ramaswamy and Musk can be expected to place a higher value on avoiding a US war with China in their advice to Trump as opposed to preserving Taiwan’s democracy.

Or, there’s a chance that the China hawks will vehemently despise Taiwan because of how much they control US policy in Asia. Beijing is deeply concerned that US efforts to prevent Taiwan from being forcibly annexed by the PRC serve as a cover for an alleged American plot to slash the country into pieces to secure Taiwan’s independence. &nbsp,

Some China hawks are known to engage in elaborate symbolic gestures intended to disparage or humiliate China, as if this was based on the idea that the Chinese government would consent if the US showed signs of strength and commitment. Then-Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 was one such example.

China responded by stepping up rather than by ceasing to expand and enhance the size and standard of its military exercises close to Taiwan. US Indo-Pacific commander Admiral Samuel Paparo&nbsp, observed&nbsp, that in 2024 he” saw the most rehearsal and the most joint exercises from the People’s Republic of China that I’d ever seen” .&nbsp,

US supporters of Taiwan should aim for policies that, ideally without stoking hysteria in Beijing, actually improve Taiwan’s security and defensibility. If completely empowered, the China hawks might not have the restraint to stay on this prudent middle path, which is best for Taiwan’s well-being.

There is also a non-trivial possibility that Trump and Xi could reach a mega-deal to reset US-China relations. By purchasing tens of billions of dollars worth of additional US products, Beijing would promise to redress China’s enormous trade surplus with the US, which Trump has discussed most. This would be a rehash of the” Phase One” trade agreement that was broken just before the Covid pandemic began. &nbsp,

In addition, China would reassure Trump that trade between China and the US would continue to be free in an East Asian nation. In return, Trump would abandon US strategic leadership in Asia. He already has a strong belief that the costs of US leadership abroad outweigh the advantages that regular Americans can expect. &nbsp,

Washington would cease selling arms to Taiwan as part of this restrenchment and give up its alliances and military installations on the western rim of the Pacific. Of course, many members of the US Congress would object. However, as the Trump phenomenon has demonstrated, we shouldn’t underestimate how much Republican Party politicians will give up their core beliefs and principles in order to maintain Trump’s favor. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Although America has never been tougher on China, this occurs amidst an anti-internationalism that is part of Trump’s” Make America Great Again” package. Therefore, Taiwan’s enduring fear of being snuffed out by America is more relevant than ever. Koreans have a tradition of describing their nation as a” shrimp among whales.”

Increasingly, that metaphor applies at least as well to Taiwan, with a potentially fickle US as one of the whales.

Denny Roy is Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu

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