Why the Taiwan election matters

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Supporters wave flags during KMT rallyGetty Images
By Kelly Ng
BBC News

All eyes will be on Taiwan when the self-governing island of 23 million people goes to the polls on 13 January.

Whoever is elected president on Saturday will shape relations with both Beijing and Washington – Taiwan is a key flashpoint in their tussle for power in this region.

And it will also have crucial implications for the island’s neighbours as well as allies like Japan who are wary of Beijing’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea.

The China factor

China is among the top concerns for most voters, given that its People’s Liberation Army has dialled up pressure on the island over the past year with a record number of incursions.

Beijing has long claimed the island, but ties have especially soured in recent years under President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Her careful but unwavering defence of the island’s sovereign status led to China suspending formal communications with Taiwan – Beijing said it was because of Taiwan’s refusal to accept the One China principle, which is the belief that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China and will be unified with it one day.

Things got worse in 2022, when then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei infuriated Beijing – it staged elaborate military drills in the Taiwan Strait that resembled a near-blockade of the island. Later that year, the US said Xi Jinping had sped up the timeline for unification.

During this time, Taiwan has grown close to the US, including securing billions of dollars in new weapons from Washington.

The DPP’s vice-president William Lai, who has been pegged as the frontrunner in the presidential race, is deeply disliked by Beijing. It sees him as an advocate for Taiwan independence, based on his younger, more vocal days, but he now rejects that description.

If the DPP wins an unprecedented third straight term, Beijing could up the ante on military pressure in the Taiwan Strait. It could also cut internet cables or supply routes to outlying Taiwanese islands.

Mr Xi and his foreign minister Wang Yi have repeatedly warned that the Chinese military is prepared to take Taiwan by force if necessary. But many experts believe that the prospect of a full-blown war is low, at least for now, given how much it would cost China when its own economy is struggling.

Beyond China

Any escalation between China and Taiwan runs the risk of turning into something bigger and more dangerous – the US has a big naval presence in the region, and bases from Australia in the south to Japan in the north.

Washington is yet to clarify exactly what form its support will take in the event of a Chinese attack – and it’s unclear if Japan, which hosts the largest concentration of US troops in the region, will itself fight.

People fly a lantern in New Taipei, bearing their wishes for peace on the island

Getty Images

Washington hopes the possibility of its involvement will deter Chinese aggression. And many analysts say Beijing also wants to avoid conflict, pointing to its refrain of “peaceful unification”.

Managing these many possibilities and alliances – and crucially the US relationship, which could very well change if Donald Trump wins the presidency – will fall to Taiwan’s next president.

The US has said a win for the opposition – Kuomintang (KMT) – could increase Chinese sway over Taiwan. But analysts say a Lai presidency also worries Washington.

If it happens, a war in Taiwan would be devastating – both in its human toll and as a blow to the island’s democracy.

It would also devastate the global economy. Close to half of the world’s container ships pass through the Taiwan Strait every year, making it a critical hub for international trade.

Taiwan also makes most of the semiconductors that power modern life, from cars to refrigerators to phones. Any disruption to this would paralyse the global supply chain. Sanctions against China would only aggravate the damage to the global economy.

According to several estimates, a complete disruption of China’s trade would reduce world trade in added value by $2.6tn, or 3% of the world’s gross domestic product.

Mending ties with China, Taiwan’s biggest threat but also its biggest trade partner, is a top agenda for whoever governs the island. Cost of living and jobs are major domestic issues on the ballot.

Analysts expect a divided government, where the executive and legislative will be controlled by different parties. Despite the possibility of political gridlock, some are hopeful that a more experienced DPP and a less powerful KMT could strike the right balance between spurring the economy and keeping peace with China.

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Fed easing, BOJ tapering calls look like losing bets

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TOKYO — For the Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve, what a difference a week makes.

As 2023 ended, the BOJ was almost universally seen as “tapering” on the way to exiting quantitative easing (QE). Governor Kazuo Ueda’s team was viewed as setting the stage for a pivot that would send the yen skyrocketing.

Markets were convinced, too, that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would be easing three times or more this year. Perhaps more as inflation pressures recede thanks to the highest US yields in 17 years undermining gross domestic product (GDP).

These rather pragmatic predictions have collided head-on with 2024. First came a 7.6 magnitude earthquake that further shook confidence in Japan’s government and economic outlook.

Then, four days later, came news that the US added a greater-than-expected 216,000 non-farm payroll jobs in December. It capped off a buoyant year for the US labor market and rapidly altered expectations for Fed rate cuts.

This U-turn in economic reality has the yen falling rather than rallying. And it’s delaying, at least for now, any plunge in the US. As these most crowded late 2023 trades go awry, Asia is reappraising economic trajectories.

For one thing, if the Fed fails to lower borrowing costs with the haste investors hope, Asian markets could give up gains driven by those very expectations.

In December, emerging markets from Jakarta to Sao Paulo enjoyed confidence-boosting rallies on hints by the Fed that US rate cuts are imminent. In Tokyo, the Nikkei Stock Average’s recent return to 33-year highs was predicated in part on anticipated powerful Fed rates to come.

Expectations for a big Fed pivot also had officials in Beijing breathing easier. Last month, Chinese leader Xi Jinping looked forward to a period when his team could address a property crisis, deflationary pressures and record youth unemployment without headwinds from Fed headquarters in Washington.

But are Asian markets sufficiently positioned for the likely disappointments to come? Odds are they’re not.

“Solid employment gains, low unemployment and sticky wages suggest no immediate need for Federal Reserve rate cuts,” says economist James Knightley at ING Bank.

US Federal Reserve Board chairman Jerome Powell may hold rates steady in 2024. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Mandel Ngan

This argument, though, is being made even before the real spoilers that could confound bond markets and, by extension, equity valuations as 2024 unfolds.

One is surprisingly robust US labor conditions adding upward pressure on wages. The December jobs data showed the extent to which wage gains are outpacing inflation.

Average US hourly earnings rose 4.1% over the past year compared with a 3.1% national inflation rate. The risk is that this dynamic blows up today’s investor optimism about a “soft landing” in the globe’s biggest economy.

As economist Mark Zandi at Moody’s Analytics points out, Americans’ real purchasing power is improving, and consistently so. This, he argues, is having a lagging effect on overall confidence.

In the post-Covid-19 period in 2021 and 2022, US households “got creamed” as inflation outpaced wages, Zandi notes. That shock, he says, explains why many are still “so uncomfortable with their financial position.” Now, he adds, things are “improving very quickly as wage growth remains strong.”

This dynamic may give the Fed pause as the world’s most-watched central bank mulls an about-face in policy. Hitting the monetary accelerator prematurely would squander the effects of the most aggressive Fed tightening since the mid-1990s.

As such, says strategist Matthew Ryan at global financial services firm Ebury, “we stand by our stance that calls for a first US rate cut in March are premature and that the Fed will need to see more evidence of a cooling in the jobs market, particularly in wages, to have confidence in achieving its medium-term inflation objective.”

George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank, concurs. The US, he says, “closed out the year on a high note, with stronger than expected labor market trends,” meaning the Fed maintains a “higher for longer” crouch for the foreseeable future.

Mateyo’s bottom line: Those “who thought the Fed will be aggressively cutting rates in 2024 will need to walk back their forecasts.”

The view, of course, isn’t universal. Kelvin Wong, an analyst at OANDA, points to hints in recent data that 11 Fed rate hikes in less than 20 months are having a cumulatively negative effect on US growth.

“Overall,” Wong says, “the mixed US jobs report for December has indicated the prior US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle has started to inflict some adverse impact on the labor market, which in turn keeps the expectation of a Fed dovish pivot alive in 2024.”

Tom Orlik, global chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, adds that “central banks are looking forward to a victory lap as inflation tracks back to target with only a modest blow to growth. Markets cheering the policy pivot will provide the appropriate soundtrack.”

Yet the plot for such debates thickens when considering the geopolitical hellscape that might lie ahead in 2024.

The number of flashpoints that could boost energy and food prices anew is increasing by the day. Top risks include Russia intensifying attacks in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia’s determination to slash oil production among OPEC+ members and the Israel-Hamas war widening into a full-blown regional catastrophe.

Israeli soldiers pictured on a tank at the Israel-Gaza border. Picture: CNBC Screengrab / Picture Alliance

News in late 2023 that the US military responded to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants by sinking a number of ships raised the stakes for a wider Middle East conflagration. Any extended disruption in shipping patterns near the Suez Canal would have central banks everywhere rethinking inflation risks.

Not surprisingly, the Middle East stands among Ian Bremmer’s top global risks for 2024.

“All these pathways pose risks to the global economy,” warns Bremmer, CEO of the Eurasia Group political risk advisory. “Most of the world’s largest shipping companies have already suspended transit through the Red Sea in response to the Houthi strikes, paralyzing a critical waterway that sees 12% of global trade pass through it.”

Bremmer adds that “ongoing Houthi attacks will keep freight insurance rates elevated, disrupt global supply chains and create inflationary pressure. In addition, the closer the conflict comes to Iran, the greater the risk of disruptions to oil flows in both the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, pushing crude prices higher.”

At the same time, Bremmer notes, any moves by Israel, the US or others to block Iran’s 1.4 million barrels per day of oil exports via sanctions or military strikes “would provoke retaliation by Tehran that puts larger volumes of oil and LNG exports from the region at risk.”

Even if this worst-case scenario, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remains a “very low probability,” Bremmer says, the mere specter could spook investors.

All this is complicating the BOJ’s 2024, and fast. After taking the BOJ reins last April, Governor Ueda passed up numerous opportunities to signal an end to 23 years of QE.

There were several moments in 2023 when global markets — and, grudgingly, Tokyo’s political establishment — were primed for a BOJ shift away from ultraloose monetary stimulus. Ueda demurred, opting instead for only technical tweaks.

There’s been a question for years about how ready Japan Inc was for an end to the free-money gravy train. In 2013, Ueda’s predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda was hired to expand a QE program first introduced in 2001.

Kuroda acted fast to grow the BOJ’s balance sheet. His team cornered the government bond market and became the biggest investor in Japanese stocks, topping the gigantic US$1.6 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund.

Such largesse, though, has a way of warping a financial system. Over time, trading in Japanese government bonds (JGBs) all but seized up. There have been countless days in recent years when not a single debt issue traded in the secondary market.

Thus when the highest inflation in 40 years arrived in 2022, JGB yields didn’t spike the way they did in the US and Europe. One reason: the unusually high percentage of bonds held by banks, companies, local governments, pension and insurance funds, universities, endowments, the postal savings system and retirees reduces incentives to sell.

In December 2022, Kuroda tiptoed up to signaling a move away from QE by letting 10-year yields rise as high as 0.5%. It shook global markets and sent the yen skyrocketing. That prompted Kuroda’s BOJ to increase bond purchases to communicate that QE wasn’t going away.

Ueda read from the same playbook in 2023 as he moved to let 10-year yields top 0.5% and then 1%. Both times, the BOJ scrambled immediately after to intervene in markets to avoid a jump in JGB rates. Absent, though, are concrete signs that Ueda sees room to begin wrapping up QE in 2024.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may hold steady on QE for now. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

Reports this week that Tokyo inflation slowed for a second month in December, a sign that cost-push inflation is easing, gives Ueda cause to stand pat. Last week’s earthquake, which killed 168, adds to the reasons why Ueda might not act.

So is the high likelihood that Japan ended 2023 in recession. And with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval rating at 17%, will Ueda think now is the time for a revolutionary change in the BOJ’s stance?

“We continue to expect that the timing of elimination of the negative interest rate policy is close, though uncertainty related to the earthquake has risen,” says Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG.

Economist Daisuke Karakama at Mizuho Bank thinks that the BOJ stepping away from negative rates in the first half 2024 has “become doubtful.”

So has virtually everything markets thought they knew about Asia’s 2024 and where the BOJ and Fed would be taking global interest rates.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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Zelensky’s war increasingly seen as ‘fought by the poor’

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Kiev now finds itself at a critical juncture with no simple solutions after the loss of Ukraine’s battle in 2023.

Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, demanded late last year that an extra 500,000 soldiers be mobilized over the coming months, which conveys both resolve and desperation. Zelensky might have time to reevaluate his own goal and how to get there, which would likely increase the fractiousness of Russian local politics.

Ukraine’s armed forces have had a power of about one million soldiers since the start of the full-scale war by Russia in February 2022, with ongoing regular recruitment making up for losses on the battle.

The goal of an additional 500,000 forces represents a significant increase of 50 % over the current benchmark in light of this. There are a number of explanations for this.

Second, it might be a sign of the true scope of loss suffered at the front over the previous 12 months. As a result of continuous Russian counterattacks, including along the lengthy bend of the front in Donbas, Ukraine experienced high rates of retention.

Concerns about the longevity of American aid are also growing. Kiev might be anticipating the need to increase individual resources on the ground in order to make up for an anticipated decline in Northern supplies of weapons and ammunition.

The new participation of 170, 000 new soldiers by Russia brings the total size of its military forces to about 1.3 million. Zelensky’s statement could therefore merely be an effort to level the playing field with regard to troop numbers.

All three of these theories, taken together, raise questions about the likelihood of a fresh Soviet offensive in 2024.

Whatever the final Russian war goals may be, one of the more tangible – and thus far unfulfilled — goals is Moscow’s territorial claim to the entire Ukrainian region of Luhansk, Donetsak, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

Denying Putin this success, which he is likely to want to accomplish before his all-but-certain re-election in March and good inauguration in May, will require a major Russian defense effort as the Kremlin’s equivalent military strength grows.

Lacking enough gentlemen to organize?

This suggests that the Russian leadership is now more focused on mobilizing all of its resources for this effort than it is on strategic prospects.

The two comparable costs on participation that the state presented to congress on December 30, 2023, show that Zelensky and his inner sphere are committed to this.

The new recruitment strategy will also put a lot of strain on already overburdened Russian state institutions and society if adopted and put into practice.

Top Ukrainian officials have publicly stated that there are simply no longer many volunteers for infantry service. In order to maintain continued enrollment, the government suggests aggressive measures.

These include hefty fines for avoiding the document, the confiscation of real estate and the melting of personal bank accounts, as well as the revoked documents of Ukrainian immigrants living abroad.

There are reportedly 600,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age in the EU who are immigrants from Ukraine on the Romanian borders. &nbsp, Photo: Gabriel Preda / Alamy Stock via The Talk

The latter group, which includes an estimated 600,000 men of fighting age who reside in the EU, will be a major focus of Kiev’s recruitment work. Zelensky did n’t mince words when addressing them directly in his New Year’s speech, saying,” You need to decide whether you are a refugee or an American.”

According to Denys Shmyhal, the prime minister of Ukraine, additional work will be made to set the country’s economy on a war footing. A new financial plan will be used in conjunction with the anticipated mobilization to raise the tax burden on individual individuals and small and medium-sized businesses while drastically cutting back on social spending.

widening cultural gaps

From a strategic standpoint, these actions are unquestionably required, particularly if Ukraine wants to regain the upper hand on the field.

However, when combined, these government actions have rekindled potentially contentious debates about social justice, fraud, and the social agreement between elites and society in Russian society. The public’s confidence in leaders is now lower and is only rising, and the conflict is becoming more and more perceived as a “war fought by the bad.”

Furthermore, the demographic trends in Ukrainian culture further exacerbate the hostile long-term leads of the ever-increasing number of people living in poverty. Men’s life expectancy has decreased from 65 years, which is currently reduced, in 2021 to 57 times.

Some practitioners predict a decline to 0.55 children per family in 2023, indicating that birth rates will continue to be extremely small. Since the start of the war, the most experienced and commercially active populace has accelerated its emigration. As a result, the weak are primarily left to fight while their living standards continue to fall.

Forced mobilization, the eradication of the populace’s rights and liberties, deeper economic unrest, and social hardship stand in stark contrast to what is commonly believed to be an elite elite lifestyle that is driven by corruption.

Zelensky may not yet be directly linked to this, and his own reputation has not been considerably harmed by his relative failure to eradicate problem.

However, a number of people in his inner sphere have been linked to dishonest behavior. If nothing else, more violent local elections —including those between the military and political elites—will weaken Ukraine’s internal fortitude and fighting prowess, more advancing Russian interests.

Therefore, Ukraine needs a new social contract between the leaders and culture as well as to reevaluate its military approach. However, neither is good.

On November 3, 2023, in an unknown place in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhny attend an artillery training facility in response to a Russian attack on Ukraine. Ukrainian Presidential Office image

Zelensky and Dmytro Kuleba, his foreign minister, insist that they “do not have a schedule B” and that there is’a path to victory. This unyielding stance is evident in the present mobilization strategies.

However, more people do not make up a plan. They is, at best, be included in a plan. Zelensky needs to explain a clearer purpose and direction in order to justify the undeniable sacrifice he is asking of Russian society.

In Ukraine and in the capitals of European allies, merely repeating the desirable—the complete independence of Ukraine—will eventually come to be seen as a dream that is perilously detached from reality on the ground.

Tetyana Malyarenko is the Jean Monnet Professor of European Security at National University Odesa Law Academy, and Stefan Wolff is a professor of global surveillance at the University of Birmingham.

Under a Creative Commons license, this post has been republished from The Conversation. Read the article in its entirety.

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BlueSG users face ‘ghost vehicles’, difficulty ending rentals days after firm apologises for ‘glitch’

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“GHOST VEHICLES”, TROUBLE ENDING RENTAL  Mr Jacob Bong, 29, who works in the entertainment industry, relies on the car-sharing service to shorten the two-hour commute from his Sembawang home to his Sentosa workplace. However, on Dec 21, he realised that he was overcharged S$50 for his drive, which reflected aContinue Reading

Behold Orca: US Navy’s robotic sub built for drone swarms

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Boeing has delivered a first giant robotic submarine to the US Navy, marking a sea change in how American underwater military missions will be conducted in the future, Defense One reported.

The diesel-electric-powered Extra-Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (XLUUV), based on Boeing’s Echo Voyager and known as Orca, was shipped after completing a series of sea trials, the report said.

Defense One says the XLUUV can be equipped with payload modules of up to 34 feet, bringing its entire length to about 85 feet. The report notes that the Orca is designed to perform long-duration critical missions to achieve undersea maritime dominance in changing environments and contested waters.

Defense One notes that the US Navy has designated the first Orca as Test Asset System (XLE0) and will apply lessons learned from XLE0’s testing to Orca XLUUV 1 through 5, which will be built and delivered to the Navy in the future.

The crewless submarine is designed to remain at sea for months in open, congested and contested waters with little human intervention, the Defense One report said.

Pentagon officials have discussed how large robotic submarines could help the US military increase its capabilities, especially in the Pacific region, and imposed a new challenge to China’s military build-up in recent years.

In 2016, then-deputy defense secretary Robert Work visited the Huntington Beach, California, Boeing factory where the Echo Voyager was first built and the Orca is now being constructed. Defense One notes that the Echo Voyager has spent over 10,000 hours at sea and “transited hundreds of nautical miles autonomously.”

The Orca submarine will aim to challenge China under the sea. Image: Boeing

It also notes that in the same year, 2016, Boeing partnered with shipbuilding stalwart Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) to start building the Orca. In early 2021, HII announced it had completed the construction of a factory that would assemble Orca hull structures.

In a July 2023 Hudson Institute report, Brian Clark notes that the undersea challenges posed by Russia and  China have made the undersea domain more contested, posing a challenge to US undersea dominance. Clark mentions that unmanned systems can suppress and destroy any undersea defenses that potential adversaries can implement.

The Warzone reported in June 2019 that China had planted two underwater sensors between Guam and the South China Sea that can reportedly track the movements of US submarines and intercept their communications.

The Warzone report notes that one of those sensors is in the Challenger Deep and the other is situated near Yap Island. The report notes that both sensors can detect acoustic signatures as far as 620 miles away (997.8 kilometers), putting crucial US military facilities at Guam within range.

Given that threat, Clark argues that the US should leverage unmanned systems such as the Orca to a much greater degree to suppress and destroy adversaries’ undersea defenses.

He also notes that China’s massive shipbuilding capabilities make it imperative for the US to scale up the production of unmanned systems like the Orca to provide a force multiplier in the event of a great power conflict.

In the same Hudson Institute report, Jamie Foggo notes that 95% of critical communications pass through undersea cables and that any disruption to that critical infrastructure would have severe economic, political and military implications.

Asia Times noted in April 2023 that severed undersea cables can have disastrous consequences for time-sensitive diplomatic or military communications, cause massive financial losses and cut off a defender from its national leadership, intelligence and sensor fusion.

Such an attack could also be highly destabilizing for nuclear stability, as it could sever a nuclear-armed adversaries’ control over its nuclear arsenal, forcing it to maintain a heightened alert and increasing the chances of mounting a pre-emptive strike.

Given those developments, Clark mentions that unmanned systems will be an essential element of undersea warfare, as a crewed submarine is not ideal for going against underwater cables, sonar arrays or naval mines hanging on the water column.

Chuck Fralick notes in the same Hudson Report that using a US$3 billion nuclear submarine may not be the ideal asset for such missions.

Kevin Decker, in the same report, envisions deploying large numbers of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV) to leverage their distributed power, which reduces reliance on a few costly assets, substantially increases underwater situational awareness, confuses enemy detection patterns and avoids risk to crewed naval vessels. 

The US may develop underwater drone swarms with Australia and the UK under the AUKUS framework, possibly bringing other Anglophone countries such as Canada and New Zealand into the high-tech emerging defense bloc.

This month, Asia Times reported that the US is getting AUKUS Pillar Two up to speed. In contrast to Pillar One, which focuses on building nuclear submarines for Australia, Pillar Two focuses on advanced technologies such as AI, electronic warfare, hypersonic weapons and quantum computing.

Canada did not join AUKUS due to the high costs of acquiring nuclear submarines. New Zealand has reservations due to its emphasis on maintaining an independent foreign policy, non-nuclear security and cultivating closer ties with Pacific countries. However, AUKUS Pillar Two’s focus on UUVs can more easily bring the two Anglophone countries within the framework.

US, UK and Australia defense alliance ready to launch Pillar Two. Image: Twitter

The Naval Association of Canada notes in an October 2022 article that the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) is exploring the use of UUVs for mine hunting and notes that UUVs can perform underwater surveillance and mapping and contribute to anti-submarine warfare.

UUVs can be a practical focal point for Canada to be integrated into the AUKUS framework, promoting strategic convergence with AUKUS’ approach with Russia in the Arctic and China in the Pacific while bolstering collaboration between the bloc’s defense industries. 

Likewise, New Zealand has also been integrating UUVs in its naval operations. Naval News reported that in June 2021, the Royal New Zealand Navy (RNZN) ordered four REMUS 300 UUVs from HII.

Naval News notes that New Zealand has a fleet of six REMUS 300 UUVs used for mine countermeasures, underwater surveys, and search and rescue.

As with Canada, UUVs can become a focal point for New Zealand’s involvement in AUKUS Pillar Two, with technology sharing within the bloc enabling New Zealand to modernize its UUV fleet further.

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Pink Line conductor rail collapses in Nonthaburi

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PUBLISHED : 24 Dec 2023 at 09:43

Pink Line conductor rail collapses in Nonthaburi
A vehicle was damaged when the conductor rail of the Pink Line electric train fell in Nonthaburi province early Sunday morning. (Photo: Chalee Radio Station)

Several kilometres of an aluminum conductor rail on the elevated Pink Line monorail system fell onto a street in Nonthaburi early Sunday morning. Three vehicles were damaged, but no casualties were reported.

The incident happened at about 5am along Tiwanon Road in Pak Kret district of Nonthaburi. A 5km stretch of the metal rail fell from the elevated structure of the Pink Line from Chon Prathan market to Khae Rai intersection. Conductor rails normally supply power to electric trains.

Eyewitnesses were vendors who parked their vehicles on the road while arranging their merchandise at the market. They said they saw bolts fall first, and then the rail collapsed and hit their vehicles. The falling rail also snagged on a power pole, leaving it standing at an angle.

One of the vendors said that if the incident had occurred as a train was passing, the damage would have been far greater. Nearby one Pink Line train stopped near Soi Tiwanon 25 Road. The whole system is normally scheduled to start service at 6am.

The rail collapsed near the western end of the 34.5-kilometre-long Pink Line from Min Buri district of Bangkok to Khae Rai area in Nonthaburi province.

At about 8.30am Northern Bangkok Monorail Co, the Pink Line operator, reported briefly that its service was closed from the Nonthaburi Civic Center station to the Pak Kret Bypass station due to power disruption.

Later it apologised for the incident and stated that it happened at 4.45am on Sunday at the Samakkhi station and three vehicles parked under the station were damaged.

The Pink Line opened for trial service last month. 

Workers from Northern Bangkok Monorail, the Pink Line operator, check the conductor rail that detached from the concrete beam on Sunday morning. (Photo: Northern Bangkok Monorail)

The conductor rail pulled down power cables and a pole seen leaning on Tiwanon Road in Nonthaburi on Sunday morning. (Photo: Wararit Panichkitkosolkul)

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Pink Line rail fell in Nonthaburi

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PUBLISHED : 24 Dec 2023 at 09:43

Pink Line rail fell in Nonthaburi
A vehicle was damaged when the conductor rail of the Pink Line fell in Nonthaburi province early Sunday morning. (Photo: Chalee Radio Station)

Several kilometres of an aluminum conductor rail of the elevated Pink Line monorail system fell on to a street in Nonthaburi early Sunday morning. Three vehicles were damaged. No casualties were reported.

The incident happened at about 5am along Tiwanon Road in Pak Kret district of Nonthaburi. The metal rail with a distance of about five kilometres fell from the elevated structure of the Pink Line from Chon Prathan market to Khae Rai intersection. Conductor rails normally supply power to electric trains.

Eyewitnesses were vendors who parked their vehicles on the road while arranging their merchandise at the market. They said they saw bolts fell first and the rail then collapsed and hit their vehicles. The falling rail also pulled one high-power pole which consequently leaned.

One of the vendors said that if the incident happened when a train was passing, the damage would be far greater. Nearby one Pink Line train stopped near Soi Tiwanon 25 Road. The whole system was scheduled to start service at 6am.

The incident happened to the western end of the 34.5-kilometre-long Pink Line from Min Buri district of Bangkok to Khae Rai area in Nonthaburi province.

At about 8.30am the management of the Pink Line reported briefly that its service was closed from the Nonthaburi government centre to the Pak Kret station due to power disruption.

The Pink Line opened for tentative service last month. 

The conductor rail pulled power cables and the pole which leaned on Tiwanon Road in Nonthaburi on Sunday morning. (Photo: Wararit Panichkitkosolkul)

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Port of Singapore unaffected by Red Sea attack disruptions but ready to help ships ‘catch up’ after delays: MPA

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SINGAPORE: The Port of Singapore “remains unaffected” by the situation in the Red Sea, where commercial vessels have been attacked by Houthi militants, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) said on Thursday (Dec 21). MPA is, however, monitoring developments closely and is prepared to assist ships that haveContinue Reading

India driving a drone race with China in the Himalayas

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India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) successfully tested this month its Autonomous Flying Wing Technology Demonstrator, an indigenous high-speed flying-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) from the Aeronautical Test Range in Chitradurga, Karnataka.

An Indian Ministry of Defense statement on the flight notes that the UAV is designed and developed by DRDO’s Aeronautical Development Establishment and has undergone six flight trials in various developmental configurations using two in-house manufactured prototypes.

The statement, dated December 15, notes that the autonomous landing of the UAV showcased a unique capability demonstration, allowing take-off and landing from any runway with surveyed coordinates.

It highlights that feat was achieved by fusing sensor data on board using GPS-aided GEO-augmented navigation (GAGAN) receivers that utilize satellite-based augmentation to improve GPS navigation.

The Indian MOD mentioned that these trials have led to the development of a robust aerodynamic and control system, integrated real-time and hardware-in-loop simulation, and a state-of-the-art Ground Control Station.

It said that the research team behind the project had optimized avionic systems, integration and flight operations toward the successful seventh flight in the final configuration.

The source described the aircraft prototype as a complex arrowhead wing platform made of lightweight carbon prepreg composite material developed indigenously.

It also said that the successful indigenousness development of such critical technologies will further strengthen the Indian Armed Forces and that India has joined the “club of countries to have mastered the controls for the flying of wing technology.”

While the Indian MOD did not explicitly identify the drone involved in the tests, it is most likely a variant of the Ghatak flying wing stealth drone.

India’s Ghatak flying wing stealth drone. Image: Wikipedia

In June 2022, Asia Times reported that India had successfully tested its Autonomous Flying Wing Technology Demonstrator at the Aeronautical Test Range in Chitradurga, Karnataka.

The UAV, also known as the Stealth Wing Flying Testbed (SWIFT), is a significant step in India’s bid to indigenize its armed forces and reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers of weaponry.

The drone’s airframe, undercarriage, flight control and avionics systems are all reportedly indigenously made. The SWIFT drone is 3.96 meters long with a 4.8-meter wingspan and weighs approximately 1,043 kilograms.

However, it was powered by a Russian NPO Saturn 36MT turbofan engine, suggesting India still needs to perfect the technology to manufacture small drone aircraft engines.

The scaled-down version of the Ghatak combat drone aims to test stealth technology and high-speed landing in autonomous mode. As of that time, ten more test flights were needed to address design issues before proceeding with the Ghatak drone’s production.

Stealth drones such as the Ghatak may play a significant role in escalating cross-border incursions between India, Pakistan and China.

In a July 2023 article for Carnegie India, Surya Krishna and Ashima Singh note that out of 492 drone sightings at the India-Pakistan border between 2020 and 2022, 311 were seen in 2022, 104 in 2021, and 77 in 2020.

Krishna and Singh mention that Pakistan’s increasing drone incursions represent a new challenge to India’s border security forces. They note that Pakistan’s drones can fly at high altitudes and low speeds, making them difficult to detect and intercept. They also say drones reduce the danger to human operatives engaged in infiltration operations.

Krishna and Singh note that since drones can carry payloads over great distances, they are an effective tool for transporting weapons, explosives, drugs and other supplies over the border. They also say drones can be used for espionage against military installations, critical infrastructure and other targets.

China has also used drones in its border disputes with India, with the high-altitude Himalayan environment being ideal for drone operations.

In a July 2023 paper for the Foundation for Strategic Research, Antoine Bondaz and Simon Berthault note that UAVs have become an indispensable force for China in the Himalayan environment, enabling the autonomy of support systems, intelligent command, search and rescue and swarming attacks.

Bondaz and Berthault note that China uses UAVs along its border with India for various missions such as logistical support, border surveillance, battle damage assessment, artillery spotting, sniping, mine clearance and communications support.

However, they also note challenges in China’s use of UAVs in the Himalayas, including the harsh climate that can cause drones to malfunction and reduced aerodynamic performance due to thin air at high altitudes, India’s counter-UAV defenses and a lack of trained personnel to analyze data and images gathered by UAVs.

Not to be left behind, India has also capitalized on the advantages afforded by UAVs in its border disputes with Pakistan and China.

Pintu Mahla mentions in an October 2022 article for the Journal of Defense Studies that in recent years, India has increased its use of drones and that its border disputes with Pakistan and China have made suitable drone strategies and policies imperative.

Mahla also notes that intensified border drone incursions can cause disproportionate disruption to “bleed India with a thousand cuts,” giving Pakistan a viable asymmetric method to inflict costs against India’s superior conventional military and for China to challenge India’s territorial claims while avoiding direct military confrontation.

Given that, Mahla says India has intensified domestic drone research and development efforts in line with its “Make in India” program to be self-reliant in drone technology.

Furthermore, in a May 2023 paper for the Vivekananda International Foundation, Harshini Nag emphasizes that drone technology, both offensive and defensive, is crucial for India’s security, particularly in countering threats and exploiting opportunities in its geopolitical landscape.

An Indian soldier on a vehicle in Ganderbal district after border clashes with China in Ladakh. Photo: Muzamil Mattoo / NurPhoto

Nag mentions that India must develop these capabilities through indigenous production and international procurement in response to emerging security challenges.

She also explores the implications of drone technology in various military operations, underlining its role as a force multiplier in surveillance, precision strikes and counter-terrorism efforts.

Additionally, she highlights the importance of anti-drone technologies and their associated challenges, considering the proliferation of drone technology among state and non-state actors.

Nag suggests that drone warfare is an integral aspect of modern military strategy and underscores the urgency for India to advance in this field to safeguard its national interests effectively.

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