SINGAPORE: The Singapore Economic Development Board ( EDB) will have a new managing director from next year, with , Mr Jermaine Loy taking over the role, the Ministry of Trade and Industry ( MTI ) said on Thursday ( Nov 21 ). On January 1, 2025, Mr. Loy will take overContinue Reading
Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, will take over the newly created Department of Government Efficiency alongside fellow software billionaire and former national member Vivek Ramaswamy on November 12th, according to president-elect Donald Trump’s announcement on November 12. The new office will be tasked with reining in state government, curbing federal spending, and reducing rules.
Musk has been vocal in his support of Trump’s campaign, which included probably illegal monetary “giveaways” to citizens. Although Musk is relatively new in electoral politics, technology companies and their leaders have made numerous attempts to restructure public policy and governance, ranging from housing and transportation to city planning.
By looking more closely at some of these efforts, we may be able to get a preview of what Musk’s Department of Government Performance may try to do, what government-by-tech may seem like, and what might go wrong.
In 2013, Musk himself proposed a new form of public transportation called the “hyperloop” to join Los Angeles and San Francisco. And Musk’s SpaceX aims to outsource the rocket-building business to the government.
But another tech firms have had similar interests.
Uber has made a series of attempts to replace people transport. Companies like Sidewalk Labs, a subsidiary of Google’s parent company, have created” intelligent cities” that collect and analyze information about people’s behavior in order to make decisions about providing services, making attempts to replace urban infrastructure.
Perhaps an analyst suggested that public libraries may be replaced by Amazon bookstores. In fields as diverse as cover, personality identification, and education, tech firms have challenged people products.
One thing some government-by-tech jobs have in common is a perception that government is inherently inefficient, and that (unregulated ) technology can offer better options.
Silicon Valley software companies have huge espoused “disruption“, the idea of overthrowing a dead standing status with technology. Unlike people agencies, the reasoning goes, companies is “move fast and break things” to discover new and more effective ways to deliver services and price.
Tech firms that adhere to this theory have undoubtedly provided service that many of us use frequently in our day-to-day lives and generated significant profits. But this does n’t mean the Silicon Valley model makes sense for public administration. In reality, the information suggests something more like the same.
Tech’s attempts to provide public companies have had mixed results.
Innisfil, Canada, switched to Uber in 2017 to replace all of its public transportation options. The result was a rise in city costs ( in Uber’s fees ), more cars traveling, and more expensive transportation for low-income residents.
After encountering concerns regarding protection and planning, Sidewalk Labs ‘ smart-city trial in Toronto was abandoned in 2021.
The software industry’s disruption has worsened existing issues, with Airbnb and other short-term rental firms playing a role in the housing crisis.
Additionally, tech firms typically concentrate on a select few issues. Silicon Valley has helped us to find a car, choose a restaurant for dinner, manage quickly around a town, transfer money to our friends, and search for the best rental for our vacation.
It has provided fewer options for getting low-income cover, providing treatment for the younger, or reducing our power usage. There are significant benefits to this: technology companies want to tap wealthy buyers with disposable income to generate income.
These disparities even reflect Silicon Valley’s lack of diversity, though. Tech remains mostly white, mostly female, generally upper-middle course, typically highly educated. This affects the troubles and answers Silicon Valley finds.
The secret business will suffer from all of this. However, the government’s primary function is to look after all of its citizens, not merely owners or buyers ( or even just those who voted for it ).
The issue is that Silicon Valley’s “efficiencies” and solutions may end up delivering the few at the price of the many. Some “inefficiencies” of public service arise from the truth they are designed to get as many people into accounts as possible.
Rules and protections for older people, for those with disability, for those who may not speak English as a second language, for instance, all create the need for more government and more rules.
Musk has compared the public transportation system to a “pain in the pussy” where possible serial killers must be positioned next to one another. Of course, in some places public transportation carries no such discrimination. Additionally, many people who prefer to travel by private jet ( or even Tesla ) may have no other choice but to rely on a public bus for their needs.
One of SpaceX’s aims is to reduce the cost of a trip to Mars to under US$ 1 million. This would be a extraordinary success, but it means that Musk’s imagined Mars settlement may be very wealthy. As a form of public policy, spacecraft and hyperloops are terribly insufficient.
The technology sector itself depends on existing facilities and institutions, even though the idea of disruption attempts to minimize its impact.
Uber depends on roads and vehicles, as well as the institutions that maintain them, and Airbnb depends on brick-and-mortar construction, as do Amazon and eBay, which rely on postal service and travel system.
All tech companies rely on solid, enforceable financial, property, and tax laws. These outdated institutions and infrastructures may not be attractive or even effective.
However, these so-called inefficiencies have often evolved in ways aligned with fairness, justice, and inclusivity. Silicon Valley tech companies ‘ past records do not support their positions on these issues.
Hallam Stevens is professor of interdisciplinary studies, James Cook University
The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Portcast, the Singapore-based provider of real-time transportation visibility and predictive analytics, has announced that it has raised US$ 6.5 million ( RM29 million ) in a Series A funding round. The round was led by Susquehanna Asia VC, with participation from Hearst Ventures, Signal Ventures, and existing buyers, including Wavemaker Partners, TMV, and Innoport.
In a statement, the business said the new money would promote product development, especially in harnessing conceptual AI to enhance chance management, transport planning, and invoice auditing capabilities. Additionally, it intends to strengthen integrations with technologies partners while expanding its reach in important markets in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe. According to Portcast, the company is well-positioned to fulfill its goal of improving the resilience of international trade through actionable data.
In addition, the business continued to invest in artificial intelligence ( AI ) technology to protect its clients ‘ profitability in the face of increasingly fragile global supply chains and increased disruption.
Portcast provides strategic administration with justifiable justifications and recommends alternative strategies to help shipping companies and logistics companies increase their productivity, operating costs, and carbon emissions in the transportation industry. The agency’s data system integrates data from carriers, terminals, location and risk data, and custom documents to give accurate visibility through a single, easy-to-integrate API and website. The business uses machine learning and advanced large-language models to provide meaningful insights to improve supply chain operational and financial transparency.
Nidhi Gupta ( pic ), founder and CEO of Portcast, said:” Supply chain disruptions have become the norm, driving up costs for shippers and logistics service providers globally. The concern now is to push actions from visibility data through integrated recommendations, which is no longer sufficient to screen shipments. In order to reduce freight costs and enhance user experience, we are committed to creating a product that not even discovers risks in transportation but, more importantly, immediately suggests measures to reduce these costs.
The support from both existing and new traders is a bible to the customer fulfillment we’ve achieved and the trust in our strategy in today’s tough economic environment. Looking back, we are eager to expand in the Asia-Pacific area and Europe, strengthening partnerships to take our answers to even more firms”, she added.
In addition, Susquehanna Asia VC’s Richard Hsu stated that Portcast has used both amazing and open data to provide reliable and explicable transportation visibility. However, what sets them apart is their ability to transform that information into useful, practical insights for their clients, setting a new standard in shipping decision-making. With its unique data-driven approach, Portcast has the potential to address additional challenges in global trade. Not only are we excited about what Portcast has already accomplished.
Hemisphere Ventures, a US venture capital and consulting firm known for early-stage investments in space, cybersecurity, biotech, nanotech, drones, robotics, and other frontier technologies, has opened a new office in Singapore, marking its first expansion into Southeast Asia ( SEA ).
Established in 2014, Hemisphere has a collection of US border tech investments, with home offices as investors. Illustrations of markets include area, security, bioscience, nanotech, drones, robotics, and another frontier technologies
Leading the agency’s rise in SEA is Chip Whittemore, who has just been promoted to managing companion. In his new role, Whittmore may direct Hemisphere’s Singapore activity, building relationships with local shareholders, founders, and important stakeholders. According to a media transfer, Hemisphere has also been given the task of utilizing its US network to connect SEA startups with existing collection companies.  ,
Lisa Rich, founder of Hemisphere Ventures, said in the relieve:” Hemisphere’s devotion to the development ecosystem has gone world. Our new company in Singapore makes it easier for startups to interact with global markets and encourages engagement there.
As both skill and cash flow to the area, Processor’s leadership and vision will be crucial to unlocking growth opportunities in the area’s SEA, which is ripe for growth.
According to the transfer, the number of home offices in Singapore has more than tripled since 2020, with 250 more ones established in the first eight month of 2024.  ,
Singapore offers a secure and attractive location for investments in innovative technology, with access to SEA’s high-growth options, according to Chip. I’m excited to direct Hemisphere’s development, and connect owners and traders to the global business marketplace”.
¬ Capitol Media Limited. All rights reserved.
Hemisphere Ventures, a US venture capital and consulting firm known for early-stage investments in space, cybersecurity, biotech, nanotech, drones, robotics, and other frontier technologies, has opened a new office in Singapore, marking its first expansion into Southeast Asia ( SEA ).
Established in 2014, Hemisphere has a collection of US border tech investments, with home offices as investors. Illustrations of markets include , speed, security, biotechnology, nanotech, drones, robotics, and another frontier technologies
Leading the agency’s rise in SEA is Chip Whittemore, who has just been promoted to managing companion. In his new role, Whittmore may direct Hemisphere’s Singapore activity, building relationships with local shareholders, founders, and important stakeholders. According to a media launch, Hemisphere has also been given the task of utilizing its U  network, which includes facilitating connections between clients and existing collection companies in SEA.  ,
Lisa Rich, founder of Hemisphere Ventures, said in the media relieve:” Hemisphere’s devotion to the development ecosystem has gone world. Our new business in Singapore makes it easier for startups to interact with global markets and encourages engagement there.
As both skill and cash flow to the area, Processor’s leadership and vision will be crucial to unlocking growth opportunities in the area’s SEA, which is ripe for growth.
Since 2020, the number of home offices in Singapore has more than tripled, with 250 more opening in the first eight month of 2024.
Singapore offers a secure and attractive location for investments in sophisticated technology, with access to SEA’s high-growth options, according to Chip. I’m excited to direct Hemisphere’s development, and connect owners and traders to the global business marketplace”.
¬ Plaza Media Limited. All rights reserved.
Transportation Minister Chee Hong Tat predicted that raising road stability targets had cost taxpayers and commuters.  ,
He stated in parliament on Monday ( Nov 11 ) that the current rail reliability goal of 1 million mean kilometres between failure ( MKBF ) is still “relevant and valid.”
He was responding to Pritam Singh, the leader of the opposition, who claimed that the Ministry of Transportation ( MOT ) is considering raising the threshold because it had been set a mere five years ago.  ,
The 1 million number, according to Mr. Chee, was chosen because it represents what the best, most trustworthy road providers, like those in Taipei and Guangzhou, have accomplished with their techniques.
” If we look at it now, I think it’s also a relevant and acceptable specific, something that is important for us to rely on, and that is something which we will continue to work towards”, he said.  ,
The possibility of raising it more has to be thoroughly assessed, he added.  ,
Because raising MKBF farther and what is the cost incurred are incompatible, according to Mr. Chee, who said that either taxpayers or commuters will eventually have to bear the cost.  ,
” So, we will study this carefully” . ,
In response to numerous MRT and LRT system failures in the past few decades, bridge consistency was the subject of discussion in congress.  ,
A malfunctioning coach caused extensive damage to the monitors and other products in September, which caused a significant MRT disruption by preventing regular SMRT train service along a portion of the East-West Line for about six times.  ,  ,
A train problem caused disruption to teach services along the Bukit Panjang LRT line last month, with services resumed the next day.  ,  ,
Mr Chee said that the entire MKBF for the MRT system has improved from about 1.8 million train-km in end-September, to nearly 2 million train-km as at end-October.
Because we know safety and reliability are essential for travellers, he said,” My coworkers and I will continue to pay close attention to keeping the MKBF above the 1 million objective.”  ,
He added that SMRT has established a task force to examine its systems, procedures, and repair procedures.  ,
The National Transport Workers ‘ Union and the Land Transport Authority ( LTA ) have been invited to the workgroup. According to Mr. Chee, “mutual learning” will also be provided by the Guangzhou and Taipei subway users.
SINGAPORE: The hours-long Singtel landline outage last month was caused by a “technical issue” of a network component,  , Senior Minister of State for the Ministry of Digital Development and Information , Janil Puthucheary said on Monday ( Nov 11 ), citing preliminary findings.
Additionally, a storage program failed to start as planned.
Speaking in parliament, Dr Janil said preliminary findings suggest that the complex issue affected the proper , functioning of a community part in one of the two systems supporting Singtel’s fixed-line voice services.
The two systems, located in separate phone exchanges, are designed to quickly take over the entire weight of the other when a program malfunctions, he said.
” But, in this instance, the backup did not happen effortlessly, which caused the continuous support disruption”, he explained.
The Singtel telephone interruption on Oct 8 disrupted calling to emergency service, care organizations, as well as customer service ranges for some federal agencies, banks and businesses.
Members of Parliament had raised a number of questions regarding the situation, including what might have caused the disturbance, how it might have been avoided in the future, and whether Singtel may face legal action.
The Infocomm Media Development Authority ( IMDA ) is conducting its investigations, adding that there is no conclusive evidence linking the incident to a sabotage or cyberattack.
” Our nation’s connectivity needs and demands are supported by Singapore’s communications system, which is a crucial system.” IMDA holds important service companies, like Singtel, to great service requirements and requires them to perform regular audits on their system and infrastructure”, he said.
” This includes ensuring the security of network architecture, reliability methods, and business continuity plans. Additionally, service companies must make sure their sites are adaptable to disruptions. If any errors are discovered under the Telecommunications Act, IMDA will not be reluctant to take severe behavior, including imposing financial penalties.
At the following meeting on Monday ( Nov 11 ), members of Parliament will discuss the recent oil spill incidents as well as the last month’s <a href=”https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singtel-landline-down-phone-service-outage-disruption-kkh-dbs-uob-banks-businesses-4665266″>Singtel landline outage.
In the midst of a probe into the company MaNaDr Clinic and the new study to determine whether 38 Oxley Road , is worthy of preservation, concerns were also raised regarding healthcare providers.
Members were questioned about what might have caused the Oct 8 phone disturbance, how such an incident could have been avoided in the future, and whether any legal action will be taken against Singtel in the order report released on Friday.
The hours-long phone interruption, which the company called an “isolated incident”, disrupted calling to emergency services, medical institutions, banks and businesses.
MP Tan Wu Meng ( PAP-Jurong ) questioned the Ministry of Digital Development and Information about the root causes of the disruption and whether current business continuity standards are sufficient in situations where a telco provides essential hotlines support.
In the event of a company loss, Dr. Tan even inquired with the Ministry of Home Affairs about the back plans for crucial phone alerts like 995 and 999.
NCMP Hazel Poa ( PSP) asked for the estimated number of calls to 995 and 999 that were impacted by the failure, and what punishments, if any, have been imposed on Singtel.
Concerning the lessons learned from the disruption, MP Yip Hon Weng ( PAP-Yio Chu Kang ) inquired whether an independent investigation will be conducted to identify vulnerabilities and stop future incidents.
According to MP Lim Wee Kiak ( PAP-Sembawang ), the Ministry of Health was asked how many patients experienced delays in getting medical care because of the outage, how many patients experienced negative outcomes as a result, and what assistance has been given to them.
Members also filed concerns about past week’s oil spills, which included an affair off Changi during bunkering operations , and a Shell petrol pipeline hole.
Given Singapore’s status as a global bunkering hub, Ms. Cheryl Chan ( PAP-East Coast ) questioned the Ministry of Transport about the need for a review of oil sighting and alert mechanisms and how the costs and workload incurred by the agencies involved would be handled.
MP Poh Li San ( PAP-Sembawang ) asked about the impact of the spills on Singapore’s seawater quality and marine ecosystem, and the mitigation measures for future incidents.
The state will be checking the structural integrity of all oil pipelines in Singapore’s lakes, according to NCMP Hazel Poa ( PSP), and Shell may face penalties.
Additionally, inquiries were made regarding the legal framework for healthcare providers.
MP Wan Rizal ( PAP-Jalan Besar ) questioned the Ministry of Health ( MOH) about the measures in place to ensure telehealth providers consistently adhere to patient care standards, as well as whether additional regulatory frameworks will be developed.
MP Hany Soh ( PAP-Marsiling-Yew Yee )  , asked how the public would be assured that teleconsultation services meet the appropriate standards, and whether MOH has received feedback on potentially errant medical clinics.
The Oxley Road site has been studied by the National Heritage Board ( NHB) to determine whether it merits to be preserved as a national monument.
NCMP , Leong Mun Wai ( PSP) asked the Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth why another study was needed considering that the Ministerial Committee on 38 Oxley Road had assessed in 2018 that the property had architectural, heritage and historical significance.
MP Louis Chua ( WP-Sengkang ) requested information on the terms of reference for the NHB study and how the current study is different from the Ministerial Committee’s 38 Oxley Road terms of reference.
Six Payments are set to become introduced, including the Protection from Scams Bill.
Seven other Bills are also scheduled for second reading, among them the Community Disputes Resolution ( Amendment ) Bill.
We then know that the elections once underestimated Donald Trump’s help, just like they did in 2016 and 2020, and not in the same way. However, we must also accept the reality that British voters have chosen to appoint a man who tried to rig the results of the election four years ago with violence and who will provide the White House on January 20th, 2019 with less restrictions than he did in 2017.
Beyond his own greater knowledge and preparation, the president’s ability to avoid prosecution for anything he does in his official ability is what makes the Supreme Court now have a clear conservative majority compared to his predecessors’, which court recently ruled.
We can be certain that Trump will attempt to pre-empt for a concept through his own actions, but that opportunity of that standard capacity has yet to be determined by any courtroom, as it needs to be. The primary way that he will accomplish this is by appointing hardliners to the Department of Justice. Trump often expressed his frustration when his attorneys general told him that what he wanted to do was against the law during his first term. Using his national resistance, he did now feel emboldened to reject any such pleasantries.
Trump has always been a malevolent person, so it can be expected that he seeks retribution against both his political and legal foes, including those who have tried to sue him and maybe even President Joe Biden himself. However, the resistance defense also applies to something Biden has done in his own official capacity.
Some of his critics, including Republican critics such as previous congresswoman Liz Cheney, will now be preparing for a legitimate assault. Thousands of his followers, including those who were prosecuted for the rape on Capitol Hill on January 6,  , 2021, may soon expect to receive national pardons, giving an official confirmation of acts previously considered legal and anti-democratic.
There will still be some restrictions on the recently elected Trump. He took office in 2017, and his Republican Party now holds power of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Republicans now have taken control of the Senate. The Democrats properly control the House of Representatives, but it seems unlikely that they will as of today, November 7th, that is.
If the Democrats do eventually gain power, it will at least give them some means by which to manage his wasting and tax policies, since the Congress has the authority to exercise those rights.  , If they do n’t, then during the two years until the 2026 mid-term elections, the Republicans will have a pretty free hand, constrained only by reality and the financial markets.
Despite this congressional inquiry, it is almost certain that he will proceed quickly with a policy that will hurt both Japan and Europe, specifically his proposal to impose a 10 % or 20 % tariff on all imports into the United States. Without the need for Parliamentary approval, a leader can do this under a number of emergency powers. The current US average transfer tax is just 2 %, so this will be a huge boost, one that the European Commission  , and the Japanese government, among others, will likely react against.
Trump has long been a fan of tariffs. In this campaign, he made the decision to emphasize how much he loves them, both as a way to punish nations that have surpluses in their trade with the United States and as a means of raising money. The European Union and Japan are included in that group.
Some Optimists think that Elon Musk and Stephen Schwarzman, two of the large Blackstone investment firm, will be the few billionaire businessmen who supported Trump in this international economic policy. Although that influence cannot be relied upon, for now that he has won the election, he no longer really needs those billionaires ‘ backing. And he is providing them with tax breaks and deregulation, which they may believe will reduce any harm to their global businesses as a result of the tariff policy.
How much less clear is the impact of Trump’s new freedoms on his foreign policy. A significant period of disruption can be anticipated if he fulfills his pledge to purge what he perceives to be the “deep state” of the intelligence services, the military, and the State Department, since such purges and restaffing will take a long time. For that reason, he might not do everything he has threatened.
President Volodymr Zelensky of Ukraine, who has undergone the most suffering since Russia’s brutal invasion in 2022, is undoubtedly the one who will have most devastated the election news. He deserves our full sympathy for everything he and his country have endured.
Zelensky is incredibly resilient, as he has demonstrated. He will be thinking that he still has a chance to sway Trump to withdraw support, but that he most importantly needs to persuade European governments to do the same. They will have to do exactly that if they really want to defend their own security and preserve NATO.
The collapse of the coalition government in Germany may have encouraged Zelensky, but the one piece of news on November 6 may have been heartening. He will no longer have to wait until September 2025 for a new government to be elected in Europe’s most powerful nation.
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, who is currently leading in polls, is likely to win the German election, but how kind of coalition he will form remains to be seen. He has shown much greater courage and determination to fight for Ukraine’s and Europe’s security. In Thursday’s papers an election date in March is forecast, but it could happen sooner than that.
Formerly editor-in-chief of The Economist,  , Bill Emmott , is currently chairman of the , Japan Society of the UK, the , International Institute for Strategic Studies , and the , International Trade Institute.
La Stampa published an early version of this article in Italian. The Substack Bill Emmott’s Global View then published this updated English version. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.
This content was first published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with authority.
” Are we enemies, or companions”? President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping had a conversation next November at the Filoli Estate, a magnificent country house and garden set in Woodside, California, at which time President Xi Jinping and President Xi Jinping spoke. ” That”, Xi explained, “is the number one question for us”.
In response to the question five months later in his telephone conversation with Biden, Xi claimed that the two sides needed to “get the issue of corporate perception” right second, just like the first button on a shirt that needs to be fixed.
Get it a Harris management or a subsequent Trump administration, the second option is not likely to be worn as per Xi’s desire. The US-China relations period has come to a ceremonious close. Strategic competitors, including apparently of an extraordinary variant, is here to stay.
The key question is whether the two parties are capable of grimly stabilizing ties by placing guardrails on the relationship as the relationship’s negative tendencies develop, or whether serious competition will turn into direct strategic rivalry with the possibility of the base completely disappearing.
A Harris president’s or a second Trump president’s approach toward China probably would have some popular elements. These include
The Trump government’s National Security Strategy of December 2017 serves as the theoretical foundation for the popular view to China.
Having declared China a “revisionist energy” that was engaged in “long-term proper competition” with the United States, the administration worked to redesign the region’s hub-and-spokes architecture into a four-cornered network featuring Washington, Tokyo, Canberra, and New Delhi as the “principal hubs” to maintain a positive corporate balance over China.
Tariffs were imposed on$ 370 billion worth of Chinese imports on the geopolitical before, and the US’ technology power program was redesigned following an expansive Internet ( information and communications technology and services ) rule that was initially trained on Huawei’s kneecapping.
The Biden administration’s three-part approach to “invest, align and compete” against China is built on this foundation. Its punitive” small yard, high fence” controls – be they about chips, supercomputing or connected vehicles – derive from the ICTS order. Trump’s Section 301 tariffs have beennot just retained but selectively increased, too, not scaled down.
By introducing landmark legislation like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act ( IRA ), the Biden administration has also increased domestic product capacity in key strategic and high-value-added manufacturing sectors. Additionally, it has creatively employed several industrial policy authorities, such as the Defense Production Act, Buy American Act, and the Bayh-Dole Act.
Given that the Republican leadership had abandoned these industrial policy initiatives, and the climate change-related initiatives might not be carried out in a second Trump administration.
Geopolitically, the Biden administration’s strategy on China centered on crafting a bespoke “latticework” of trilateral and multilateral coalitions ( rather than simply establishing a four-cornered architecture as was the case with Trump ) to build” situations of strength” and dictate the terms of effective competition with China.
Having assembled these coalitions – AUKUS, Quad, ROK-Japan-US trilateral, the Squad, deepened NATO-Indo-Pacific Partner ( IPP ) relationships – to shape the strategic environment around China, the Biden administration has since the November 2022 G20 Summit in Bali sought to cement a “floor” under its working relations with Beijing.
In a Harrisian or second Trump administration, the Biden and Trump administration brushstrokes are anticipated to continue.
None of this pleases China. In its view, the Trump and Biden administration’s strategies were intended to build it out economically, isolate it diplomatically, encircle it militarily and suppress its development technologically.
In Beijing, the networking of alliances, partnerships, and minilateral groupings is more of a catalyst for major power conflicts than a pillar for stability and deterrence, in Beijing’s opinion. And regardless of who wins on November 5, there are little hopes of positive change going forward.
That said, a Harris presidency is handily the “lesser of two evils” insofar as China is concerned.
Disruption, rather than stability, had been the norm on China during the Trump years and likely would be the case again.
China hopes that the next president will consolidate the fragile stability in ties and institutionalize it to make the bilateral relationship more predictable by building on the slow rehabilitation of ties over the past 18 months.
An essential component of China’s top top national interest is a non-disruptive external environment supported by a rough-and-ready coexisting relationship with the United States, which is its re-emergence and the achievement of its national modernization goals by the middle of the 21st . century. Harris is more qualified than Trump to make this point.
Second, as a general principle, China prefers continuity over change in government. With the relevant leader and counterpart senior officials, continuity facilitates more predictable and stable interactions, as well as allowing for the formation of equity.
Given his depth of knowledge of China and his interactions with Xi, Beijing would have preferred that Biden be reelected to office. Harris, nonetheless, represents the next best option. Besides, Harris’s pronouncements on China on the campaign trail have been light on detail. The less said over the public airwaves the better, in Beijing’s view.
Third, as a general principle, in the post-Cold War era, China has tended to prefer Democratic Party presidents over Republican Party presidents. In fact, the Clinton and Obama second terms were extremely fruitful in the bilateral relationship, which is another reason why Beijing would have so much preferred that Biden have stayed in even during this “new normal” era of US-China ties.
Democrats, in Beijing’s view, are more prone to taking a less adversarial approach towards the bilateral relationship and China’s role in the world compared to Republicans. And now that the Republican Party has abandoned its pro-trade stances, the policy axes that China and Republican administrations can rely on to find common ground have fallen dramatically.
Finally, and relatedly, China holds deep reservations not so much about President Trump as much as about a Trump administration. Trump is a known and, up to a point, a manageable quantity, in Beijing’s view. His transactionalism opens him up to opportunistic deals involving US jobs, investments, and exports, and he is not necessarily anti-China in his political outlook.
A second Trump administration, on the other hand, would be filled with freshmen who were unjustifiably hostile to China. Even though the ties would be low, there might be no bottomless if these new Cold Warriors proved to be determined to establish Taiwan as the central hub of the United States ‘ great power rivalry with China. Beijing would prefer that this theory be left unproven.
Over the next four years, the US and China will likely remain tense in a fiercely competitive relationship. The Indo-Pacific region and the world will be greatly affected by whether the two parties are able or willing to incorporate this competitive dynamic into a steadying strategic framework.
Sourabh Gupta , ( sourabhgupta@chinaus-icas .org ) is a senior Indo-Pacific international relations policy specialist with two decades of Washington-based experience in a think tank and political risk research and advisory capacity. At the Institute for China-America Studies, he heads the Trade n ‘ Technology Program.