In the disputed South China Sea, China and the Philippines are edging riskily toward armed conflict, which was quickly turn into a US-China conflict.
Two Spanish vessels conducting inspections close to the disputed Scarborough Shoal were attacked on April 30 by China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels, both of whom claim a marine feature.
The Chinese vessels targeted the Philippine Coast Guard’s (PCG) BRP Bagacay and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources ( BFAR ) vessel BRP Datu Bankaw, both of which sustained damage, according to Philippine authorities.
The China Coast Guard’s use of violent water pressure in their abuse of Spanish vessels serves as evidence of this damage, according to Commodore Jay Tarriela, the spokesperson for the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF- WPS), in a statement.
To be sure, China has yet to hire armed force to impose its will on the Philippines. And it has but to regain control of the controversially disputed Scarborough Shoal, which has been in Beijing’s actual power for decades.
However, China continues to hurt its maritime workers and harm its vessels, pushing the Philippines to the limit. The Second Thomas Shoal incident that injured some Filipino service members came just days after this year’s attack.
Significantly, the Scarborough Shoal incident occurred in the middle of a significant Balikatan wargame between the Philippines and important friends, most notably the United States, which deployed 11, 000 soldiers, state-of-the-art arms, and simulated marine attacks on archipelago.
Stress is growing on the US to listen to China’s anger. Beijing has been repeatedly warned by the Joe Biden administration that it is required to intervene to help with a fight in the event of a fight.
However, it has not yet demonstrated a defensible deterrent to China’s increasingly aggressive “gray area” tactics in the contested waters.
Frozen fight
China formally claimed that it had reached an interim deal with the Philippines to prevent a dangerous escalation of the Second Thomas Shoal shortly before the most recent round of hostilities.  ,
A spokeswoman for the Chinese embassy in Manila claimed that a “new type” had been reached to resolve disputes over the disputed reef, which houses a de facto Spanish center on the stalled BRP Sierra Madre ship.
However, Philippine authorities quickly refuted the assertion, insisting on their unwavering support for the Second Thomas Shoal, a low-tide elevation well within the Southeast Asian nation’s 200-nautical miles exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ).
The Philippine National Security Council ( NSC ) lambasted China’s claim as “nothing more than a new invention”, referring to an earlier alleged “gentleman’s agreement” between China and the former Duterte administration that is now under formal investigation.
” As the President]Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ] has clearly stated, there is , no agreement whatsoever about]Second Thomas ] Shoal , and that we shall continue to do all activities within the bounds of international law and we shall brook no interference in our lawful actions”, a statement by the NSC said.
Additionally, the Philippines will not consent to any “internal understanding” or “new model” that might be interpreted as accepting or recognising China’s control and administration of the Ayungin Shoal as China’s territory, it added.” We don’t agree to any such understanding that would be in violation of the Philippine Constitution or foreign law,” it continued.
Gilberto Teodoro, the secretary of defense of the Philippines, added his own opinion, citing the strains in diplomatic relationships that are growing.
The Second Thomas Shoal’s rising conflicts are a relatively new phenomenon that have escalated especially violently in the last six months, but the Scarborough Shoal conflict is more of a frozen fight.
Following a months-long maritime standoff with a Spanish warship, China finally relinquished of facto administrative control over the fisheries-rich and physically important shoal in 2012. The US was then criticized for avoiding the problems.
All Filipino president have warned China against recovering and establishing military installations over the reef, which is located only over 100 nautical miles from Asian shores and is crucial to vital military installations in Subic Bay, including the pro-Beijing Rodrigo Duterte.
In 2016, an administrative court, formed under the canopy of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS), censured China’s activity of the Scarborough Shoal, which was ruled as a ‘ popular fishing earth’ for coastal states, including the Philippines and Vietnam.
The US has also repeatedly warned China against any drastic action on the shoal in accordance with its mutual defense agreement with the Philippines.
Pressure on Biden
Key Western powers have publicly supported the Southeast Asian nation since last year in an effort to avert China’s use of more aggressive tactics in the disputed waters.
In light of the rising tensions surrounding the Second Thomas Shoal, which has resulted in three major incidents involving Philippine troops in recent months, Biden publicly criticised China’s “dangerous maneuvers” and reiterated his country’s “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines in October.
However, China has continued to impose its will on the disputing waters, leading to an even more bloody incident in March. Following a rare trilateral summit with President Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the US president publicly warned China of a swift response if the maritime conflict turned into an armed conflict.  ,
” I want to be clear: the United States defense commitments to Japan and to the Philippines are ironclad, they are ironclad. As I said before, any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels, or armed forces in the South China Sea will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty”, Biden declared,
Growing security support from the US and other Indo-Pacific countries has encouraged the Philippines to take more proactive steps to protect its sovereign rights in the South China Sea.
According to all indications, the Marcos Jr. administration is determined to contest the Asian superpower over a number of controversies, most notably the Second Thomas Shoal.
China has for its part continued to be successful, using its extensive coast guard fleet and pro-active militia forces to stifle Philippine patrols and resupply missions with growing ax.
All three protagonists are now trying to find new ways to protect their interests while avoiding a potential all-out conflict that would shock the entire region.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian