Southeast Asia (Page 6)

The political parties ‘ ability to predict cases in which the upcoming US presidential election between Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris could have both risks and advantages.

Sanan Angubolkul, president of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said changes in United States ‘ trade policies, funding flows, and climate commitments may also affect the Thai business, which is closely linked to international politics.

Buyers worry that American plans will have an impact on global industry, he said, and Thai baht and stock market fluctuations frequently occur in the lead up to US elections.

He argued that Thailand’s state and company sectors must make strategic adjustments in this atmosphere to reduce the risks brought on by US policies and exploit probable advantages brought by changes, such as strengthening ties with Southeast Asia and promoting regional industries.

Two probable cases have been suggested by the Thai Chamber of Commerce:

These measures have the potential to cause prices, adverse effects on Thailand’s imports, and have an impact on the transport and energy sectors. A 10 % global import tax from the US would also lower the need for Thai goods.

Furthermore, levies of up to 60 % on Chinese products may transfer Chinese imports toward Southeast Asia, flooding local businesses with cheaper items and hard Thai manufacturers.

In the following incident, if Ms Harris wins the election, her presidency would likely continue the Biden-era plans, supporting global industry and clean energy investments.

This will increase Thai export to the US and open up new opportunities for Thai companies to work on facilities and clean energy projects.

Despite the risks, Mr Sanan emphasised the importance of maintaining solid Thai-US relationships.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, he hoped Thailand would react to make sure the US would continue to be a significant trading partner and supporter in the future.

More funding

According to Kriengkrai Thiennukul, FTI Chairman, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI ) believes that Thailand is likely to be able to withstand the impact of US trade barriers and benefit from more foreign direct investment if trade wars grow.

If past president Donald Trump is reelected, nations that import products to the US, including Thailand, may impose substantial taxes on many items.

He said,” We are carefully monitoring whether America may impose tariffs on more products from Thailand, which has a trade deficit with the US,” adding that Thailand already had a trade deficit of about US$ 20 billion in 2020.

Thailand became the 12th-largest current account surplus holder with the US this year thanks to an increase of 11 %.

The US-China trade war erupted during the Trump administration as the previous leader imposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods in response to a years-long trade deficit with China. Mr. Kriengkrai claimed that Mr. Trump had stated that the US would never accept trade deficits with different nations.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank based in New York, Mr. Trump wants to “imposition a’universal’ price on most exports while matching higher taxes imposed by different places.”

The US trade barriers, which have also been in place since the Trump government, may proceed but should not be as significant as those that have been imposed by Mr. Trump, according to Mr. Kriengkrai.

He thinks Ms. Harris might impose levies on some goods. Trade disputes may have an impact on Thai imports, but they can help to spur foreign investment there.

If Mr. Trump is elected president, the US-China trade conflict is expected to get worse. This may lead to the growth of businesses into Asean states, including Thailand, said Mr Kriengkrai.

No matter who will succeed Donald Trump as president of the United States, Asst. Prof. Akekalak Chaipumee, a professor from Kasetsart University’s Faculty of Social Sciences, said that the Indo-Pacific region is still a proper area where the United States can use its influence to combat China and Russia.

The nation will continue to compete with China and Russia in its quest to be a tremendous strength. At the same time, both applicants share the similar priority– ‘ America First ‘– although at different levels”, he noted.

He said if Mr Trump becomes the next leader, US multilateralism did decline. Additionally, the Republican Party demands that China’s Most Popular Country status be revoked, that imports of necessities remain phased out, and that China desist from purchasing British businesses and real estate in order to” safe proper independence from China.”

If Ms Harris wins, US international policy will probably be consistent with the Biden administration’s view, he said.

As for Thailand, he said the nation always positions itself as” a friend to all nations” by seeking engagement with various international frameworks, such as Brics, an intergovernmental organisation comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ).

Thailand also needs to check if its international policies need to be changed following the US vote.

The business conflict continues

The complement lecturer in social science at Silpakorn University, Anekchai Rueangrattanakorn, said Thailand may have to take sides or face restrictions when it engages in diplomatic relations with some of the nations the US has a conflict with.

He said Mr Trump adopts unilateralism and sees multilateralism, including relationships with other provinces, while Ms Harris very emphasises diplomacy, negotiation, and teamwork and strongly emphasises internationalism.

He furthered that the US foreign policies will continuously affect geopolitics, especially in balancing China’s power. The US is one of the Southeast Asian allies that has made significant investments in the area and established strong military ties.

Mr. Trump’s foreign policies appear to favor stability in Southeast Asia more than Ms. Harris’, he said, adding that the Thai government needs to take into account the potential trade war caused by the possibility of a 10 % tariff wall that would prevent any imports into the US.

Thailand must stay out of international conflicts, keep its stance, take national interests as a top priority, and actively promote peace and shared prosperity in the area, according to Mr. Anekchai.

The government should continue to pursue a diplomatic and economic policy and use soft power to promote trade, investment, and tourism, particularly in emerging markets. Additionally, he recommended that the government consider crafting a suitable foreign policy strategy, especially if Thailand wants to play a leading role in resolving some of Southeast Asia’s issues.

Closer ties

Thailand needs to strengthen relations with the US regardless of the future president, said Panitan Wattanayagorn, an academic in security and international relations.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, he advised active dialogue with both US candidates to ensure favorable relations, stressing that early diplomatic efforts could be beneficial for Thailand over time.

He suggested that a victory for Mr Trump could bring clearer strategies, especially toward the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as he might pursue peace negotiations.

However, Mr Panitan noted that a long-term conflict between the US and Russia remains likely due to China’s support for Russia, along with US conflicts with China. At the same time, Mr Trump’s relations with North Korea might boost the chances of his victory.

Additionally, Mr. Panitan claimed that there might not be much of a difference between the parties ‘ strategies in Middle Eastern and Asian conflicts. However, tensions with China, particularly around trade, will likely remain intense under either administration.

He predicted that the United States would be involved for a while in the Middle East because of its alliance with Israel and Iran. With a proposed defence budget of US$ 800-900 billion, the US would be positioned to counter Iran directly, yet Israel remains a key partner until then.

Regarding Asia, Mr. Panitan noted that Mr. Trump could negotiate with Chinese President Xi Jinping while also supporting Taiwan’s defense. He further explained that the US does not currently have enough military power to deal seriously with China, making his relations with the Philippines a key factor that could win him votes.

Ms Harris, on the other hand, would likely focus more on Myanmar’s internal conflict, with the possibility that she would negotiate with Thailand for access to the region to deal with the matter, he said.

Mr. Trump’s decisive style, which might appeal to Americans given rising inflation and economic concerns, may be more difficult to support than Ms. Harris’s current uncertain policies, according to Mr. Panitan.

Continue Reading