Malaysia to charge Thais over mass graves

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Hearing set for Friday for foursome linked to 2015 discoveries of human trafficking camps

A Malaysian Muslim man stands near a pit during the re-burial of remains believed to be those of ethnic Rohingya found at human-trafficking camps in the country’s north, at Kampung Tualang, on June 22, 2015. (AFP File Photo)
A Malaysian Muslim man stands near a pit during the re-burial of remains believed to be those of ethnic Rohingya found at human-trafficking camps in the country’s north, at Kampung Tualang, on June 22, 2015. (AFP File Photo)

KUALA LUMPUR: Four Thai nationals will face charges in a Malaysian court on Friday over the 2015 discovery of mass graves and suspected human trafficking camps at the border with Thailand, Malaysia’s home affairs minister said.

The dense forests of southern Thailand and northern Malaysia have been a major stopping-off point for smugglers bringing people to Southeast Asia by boat — most of them Rohingya Muslims fleeing persecution in Myanmar and squalid refugee camps in Bangladesh.

The discovery of camps and graves on the Thai side of the border in 2015 led authorities in Thailand to crack down on people smugglers, but prompted traffickers to abandon at sea thousands of migrants making their way to the border area in overcrowded boats.

The Criminal Court in Thailand convicted 62 people, including an army general, police officers and provincial officials, in 2017 at the end of Thailand’s biggest ever human-trafficking trial.

Four people wanted in connection with the two countries’ investigation into the camps discovered in 2015 were extradited from Thailand this week, and were expected to be charged on Friday at a sessions court in Perlis state, Home Affairs Minister Saifuddin Nasution Ismail said on Thursday.

Saifuddin did not say what charges the four would face but stressed that Malaysia was “committed to maintaining border security and viewed issues of cross-border crime seriously, particularly human trafficking and migrant smuggling”.

The four people were among 10 Thai nationals that Malaysia had sought for extradition since 2017 as part of its investigation into the border camps, Saifuddin said.

Malaysia in 2019 launched a public inquiry into whether authorities mishandled an investigation into the 139 graves and more than 12 campsites suspected to have been run by people-smuggling groups.

The inquiry found weaknesses on the part of border patrols but concluded that no Malaysian enforcement officials, public servants or locals were involved in trafficking or migrant smuggling syndicates, according to a report published on the website of the home affairs ministry.

A policeman and a rescue worker take pictures of bodies retrieved from a mass grave at an abandoned camp in a jungle 300 metres from the border with Malaysia, in Songkhla province on May 2, 2015. (Reuters File Photo)

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Singapore slips in world competitiveness ranking but still top in Asia

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The institute’s director Professor Arturo Bris noted that while Singapore has done well in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, the nation’s late reopening – later than most European countries – shaved off some of its competitiveness.

Nevertheless, he stressed the dip was “not significant”, adding that Singapore “remains a very strong competitive economy.”

“This year, with Singapore taking advantage of the recovery, and the resilience of its economy, these are going to pay off,” Prof Bris told CNA’s Singapore Tonight on Tuesday (Jun 20).

The research highlighted that going forward, countries late to open up after the pandemic, including Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia are starting to see improvements in their competitiveness. In contrast, those early to open up are beginning to see a decline in ranking.

SMALL BUT MIGHTY

Economies with agile governance and strong trade ties have been the most successful in the latest competitive index.

Top-ranking economies – including Singapore – are small nations that make good use of access to markets and trading partners, the research found.

Second-placed Ireland, for instance, rose sharply through the ranks as a result of robust achievements in its economic performance and significant progress in government and business efficiency.

While Switzerland also slipped a spot to third overall, it still measured strongly across competitive factors, reclaiming its top spot in both government efficiency and infrastructure.

Prof Bris said that small countries allow for easier consensus between the private and the public sectors. He added that Singapore is strong in both physical and intangible infrastructure, particularly in areas of education and healthcare.

“The government also considers the long-term needs of the country much more than the short-term needs,” he said, of factors contributing to the nation’s competitive edge.

“Singapore has invested in human capital, which means that the nation is very well prepared to cope with challenges in the coming years.”

AGILITY AND ADAPTABILITY

While being small is a strength, the size is also a weakness for Singapore as smaller countries are more vulnerable to geopolitical issues, Prof Bris said, highlighting tensions in the South China Sea, and impact from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Singapore operates in the middle of a big market – Asia, and it relies (heavily) on external markets,” he explained.

“Since small economies tend to be affected much more by geopolitical issues, I would say that this is Singapore’s biggest weakness.”

Another weakness for Singapore’s competitiveness is its price tag, not unlike fellow small economies such as Hong Kong and Switzerland, Prof Bris said. 

“Successful economies are also expensive,” he said. “It is not something that we want to avoid, as it is part of the price of being successful.”

STAYING COMPETITIVE

The report said economies will need to embrace agility and adaptability in order to navigate an increasingly fragmented world.

Hence, Singapore should look at two additional areas of focus to stay competitive, on top of continuing to invest in health, education and digital infrastructure, Prof Bris said.

The first is to boost local produce and production for the domestic market in order to build resilience and work towards self-sufficiency, he said.

Second, is to put a bigger focus on regional cooperation and trade. 

“Singapore needs to focus on Southeast Asia because that’s going to be the market that will make it profitable, efficient, and successful,” he said.

“Gone are the times when globalisation meant that we can sell equally to (further places such as) Chile or Canada. Now, we will need to focus much more on markets closer to us.”

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Unraveling Pakistan’s economic crisis

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Pakistan is on the brink of an economic meltdown that threatens the nation’s fragile financial credibility and paves the way for potential political, humanitarian, and social upheaval.

Marked by widespread civil-disobedience movements, dwindling foreign-exchange reserves, soaring prices of essential commodities such as wheat, onions, milk and meat, persistent power blackouts, and an upcoming election, Pakistan faces a perfect storm of challenges.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government is grappling not only with internal political turmoil resulting from the ousting of the administration led by Imran Khan but also external pressures from intergovernmental agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

A struggling economy

The disruptions caused by the pandemic had a severe impact on economies worldwide, including Pakistan. Supply-chain disruptions affected various sectors, from retail to automobile manufacturing.

The resurgence of Covid-19 in China, the world’s second-largest economy and a significant player in global value chains across South and Southeast Asia, has added to the spillover effects on the global economy.

Consequently, by February, Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves hit an unprecedented low of US$3.19 billion, enough to cover only two weeks of import expenses, falling significantly short of the IMF’s mandated three-month import cover.

The situation is further aggravated by Pakistan’s daunting task of repaying a massive debt of $73 billion by 2025, amid a volatile political landscape and uncertain reliability of lending nations. The country’s total debt burden of $126 billion consists mainly of external loans obtained from China and Saudi Arabia.

Figure 1: Trends in Pakistan’s Foreign Reserves

Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Security concerns stemming from violent separatist groups in Sindh and Balochistan have strained the strong relationship between Pakistan and China, possibly causing the latter to suspend its developmental initiatives under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

This further hurts Pakistan’s international reputation, as it is already considered a breeding ground for terrorism, hampering its prospects for foreign investment and assistance.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has been a relatively stable supporter, except for occasional demands for immediate debt repayment.

While the relationship between the Saudi royal family and Pakistan has evolved into a strategic partnership, with Pakistan strengthening Saudi Arabia’s military and Riyadh making critical investments in Pakistan, the future of this friendship is undeniably based on geopolitical and religious interests.

Endless debt

Pakistan’s historical and cultural ties with its key allies, China and Saudi Arabia, run deep despite present circumstances suggesting otherwise.

China’s involvement in Pakistan’s development and trade dates back to the 1960s when Beijing extended interest-free credit of around $85 million (equivalent to several billion dollars today) for technological and infrastructural projects. Bilateral trade agreements were also signed to accelerate industrialization in Pakistan after the Sino-Indian war.

China and its commercial banks account for about 30% of Pakistan’s total external debt, exceeding $100 billion. This proportion surpasses the financial support received by debt-ridden Sri Lanka from China, which accounts for 20% of its total public external debt.

Moreover, the recent disbursement of an additional $700 million from the China Development Bank (CDB) in early 2023 further amplifies Pakistan’s burden of external debt obligations this year.

Figure 2: Pakistan’s Total External Debt (in US$ million) from 2006 to 2022

Source: CEIC / State Bank of Pakistan

Pakistan’s chances of defaulting on its foreign obligations this year are more imminent than ever. The nation’s dollar-denominated bonds have reached an all time low. This problem is exacerbated by the country’s low foreign-exchange reserves and upcoming repayments amounting to $7 billion in the coming months.

Additionally, negotiations with the IMF for a bailout have been slow and uncertain, leading to failure to avert a debt default and stabilizing sharply declining bond prices, which have fallen by about 60%.

Pakistan’s reliance on external loans, primarily from China and Saudi Arabia, has further compounded its economic challenges.

While these alliances have historically been strong, recent security concerns in such regions as Sindh and Balochistan have strained the relationship with China. The threat posed by violent separatist groups not only endangers the safety of Chinese nationals but also jeopardizes the future of key developmental initiatives under the BRI and CPEC.

Granting permission for Chinese security firms to operate within Pakistan would come at the expense of the Pakistan Army’s ability to protect foreign nationals.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has been a long-standing partner for Pakistan, providing critical support in various sectors. However, occasional demands for immediate debt repayment add to Pakistan’s financial strain, making it challenging to maintain a stable economic trajectory.

In conclusion, Pakistan finds itself at a critical juncture, with its economy on the verge of collapse. The country’s fragile financial credibility is at stake, and the consequences could be far-reaching, affecting not only the economy but also the political, humanitarian, and social fabric of the nation.

It is imperative for the government to address the internal political turmoil and effectively navigate the external pressures from intergovernmental agencies.

Additionally, a thorough evaluation of Pakistan’s foreign partnerships, particularly with China and Saudi Arabia, is necessary to determine their viability and ensure a sustainable path forward.

A more detailed article by this author can be found here: Debt ad Infinitum: Pakistan’s Macroeconomic Catastrophe.

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Forrester Forcasts APAC Tech Spend Will Remain Robust And Grow By 5.8% In 2023

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74% of growth will come from software and services
APAC’s digital growth is witnessing the rise of digital nationalism

According to Forrester’s Asia Pacific Tech Market Forecast, 2022 To 2027, technology spending in Asia Pacific (APAC) will grow 5.8% to reach US$732 billion in 2023.
Forrester is a research and advisory company that offers…Continue Reading

Ongoing attacks on activists bring Laos into the spotlight

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When the ambulance arrived at full speed at a Vientiane coffee shop on 29 April, first responders found what looked like a dead body. 

It was 25-year-old democracy activist Anousa “Jack” Luangsuphom. Jack was shot twice, including once in the face, by a gunman just minutes before the medical staff arrived. Though the young activist’s friends said the shooter was known to them, an official investigation of the attack has, so far, produced no updates in nearly two months.

“I survived the attempted murder, and that day changed my life forever,” Jack wrote to Emilie Palamy Pradichit, founder and executive director of the Bangkok-based rights group Manushya Foundation. “I will never give up my activism. We, Lao people, want democracy and freedom!”

A few weeks after this attack, on 17 May, Lao political activist Bounsuan Kitiyano, 56, took his last breaths near a forest in Ubon Ratchathani, northeastern Thailand.

Bounsuan was apparently shot three times while riding a motorbike. Villagers found his lifeless body and contacted the authorities, who have yet to establish firm leads as to who killed the activist and why.

Since the 1975 end of the Vietnam War – known in Laos as the American War – communist Laos has remained among the most repressive countries in the world, with strictly limited freedom of speech, press and religion.

Democracy activist Anousa “Jack” Luangsuphom poses from his hospital bed after being shot twice in cold blood. Photo supplied.

While political and freedom repression against Lao activists is not new, these two recent cases of murder and attempted murder of political activists made the world gasp. 

Some believe the Lao government is escalating a crackdown to silence dissidents ahead of its upcoming turn as the rotational ASEAN chair. Others simply weren’t surprised to see the continuation of a decades-long campaign of persecution of political criticism.

Lao activists such as Bounsuan have fled to Thailand for decades. But as the kingdom lacks a formal protection system for refugees – and its own people are often themselves fleeing as political dissidents – Lao exiles seeking haven on Thai soil often find an insecure, marginalised status.

“The political activism and the protection of Lao political activists in both Laos and Thailand is a sensitive issue,” said Thanachate Wisaijorn, head of the government department at the Faculty of Political Science at Ubon Ratchathani University. “It’s never brought up to the table in bilateral meetings.”

Today’s activism

While the countries’ authorities keep their grip on political narratives, Lao youths are starting to move the waters.

As the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020, Laos saw rapidly increasing inflation and a dramatic decrease in employment rates, all of which prompted citizens to share their concerns on the internet. Groups of youths created social media pages to allow their peers to openly share criticism of the Lao government, such as Jack’s popular Facebook page Empowered by a Keyboard. 

These youth-led corners of the internet are a new generation of democracy supporters who are finding new ways to raise their voices. Through social media and the internet, these activists gather online under anonymous profiles to speak about economic, political and social issues.  

Jack is part of this scene. But in his case, even speaking from behind a screen appears to have not been enough to spare him. The shooting has left others to fear not only for themselves but also for their families’ safety.

Pradichit from Manushya Foundation helped Jack’s evacuation of Laos in May after hospital staff left a bullet in his chest, allegedly hesitant to provide treatment once they realised who their patient was.

The foundation is now working with other human rights organisations and a team of lawyers to file a lawsuit against Vientiane’s Mittaphab Hospital for negligence in Jack’s case. According to their allegations, the Lao hospital failed to provide Jack with food since the police visit on 3 May. Pradichit says the chest tube installed the night of the shooting was never changed, causing severe infections and blood clots in Jack’s body. 

“His medical conditions were really bad. The hospital in Laos would have let him die,” she said.  

Jack is now fully conscious but unable to speak due to the permanent damage to his tongue caused by one of the bullets. He now communicates via text messages or written notes. 

Although he wants to continue living in Laos and advocate for democracy, after his near-brush with death, rights groups helped extract him from the country to receive medical treatment. His current location is concealed for security reasons.

“Jack doesn’t want to be relocated,” said Pradichit, who is currently supporting Jack with legal and protection processes to ensure his safety. “He doesn’t understand why he had to start his life from scratch when he had done nothing wrong.”

Unlike Jack, most other outspoken Lao activists, including Bounsuan spent decades in exile. Many of them are recognised UN political refugees in the U.S., Germany, Australia and Canada, but Bounsuan decided to stay in neighbouring Thailand so he could join the former Free Laos group, a dissident organisation active among the 1980s diaspora that advocated for a return to monarchy over communism. 

Laos Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, member of the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP) addressing the national assembly in the capital Vientiane. Photo from Lao TV, by AFP.

An unsafe past 

The Lao People’s Democratic Republic is one of only five remaining communist countries in the world along with China, North Korea, Vietnam and Cuba. The government is ruled by the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP) in a closed, single-party system. 

The modern state is the legacy of the Pathet Lao communist insurgency, which had fought through independence from the French protectorate, two decades of civil war and U.S. bombings during the Vietnam War – or American War.

This communist victory was followed by a period of great poverty, along with an exodus of thousands of people escaping retribution for siding with the U.S. and royalists during the war. They were the first generation of state dissidents. That was especially true for the Hmong ethnic group, which fought alongside the U.S. against communism and has since been regularly persecuted by the state and excluded from public employment.

Thai national archives recorded 120,000 registered Hmong people crossing from Laos in the early 1980s, but according to Thanachate, there were many more. The Thai government would support them for five years as political refugees, he explained, but their protection didn’t last long.

“We must be aware that the state relationship between Thailand and Laos was not good at that time,” Thanachate said. “That was until 2009, when Thailand facilitated the Hmong repatriation in Laos.”

For years, the Lao government mostly focused on persecuting Hmong as the state enemies, though that pressure eased with their safe repatriation. Meanwhile, a new generation of Lao political activists had been born – and were beginning a small pro-democracy movement.

Laos was about to see a new wave of political activism, with Jack being one of many young human rights defenders in the country. Attacks against political activists, however, continued incessantly throughout the decades.

Shui-Meng Ng holds a picture of her missing Laos husband Sombath Somphone, an award-winning environmental campaigner following a press conference in Bangkok on 12 December, 2018. Photo by Romeo Gacad for AFP.

Human rights violations continued

This year, Bounsuan’s death could be the latest of these brutal attacks. Human rights organisations have condemned the murder and called for the Lao government to run an independent and impartial investigation. 

The most prominent case of politically motivated assault was the enforced disappearance of human rights defender Sombath Somphone, who was abducted from a police checkpoint in Vientiane in 2012.

More than a decade later, no one knows his whereabouts. 

In the meantime, environmental activist Houayheuang “Muay” Xayabouly remains in prison after pleading guilty to state defamation for criticising the government on Facebook for corruption and its poor response to the 2019 flooding in Champasak and Salavan provinces. The whereabouts of Lao pro-democracy activist Od Sayavong, who disappeared in 2019 after returning to Laos from Thailand on a visa run, also remains unknown. 

Chue Youa Vang was murdered in 2021 allegedly by the Lao authorities for his work on finding one of the four Hmong people who mysteriously disappeared in March 2020. 

As of last year, the Lao government has reported only three political prisoners, who remain in detention for treason, anti-state propaganda and unauthorised protests.  

Many more cases have gone unreported both in Laos and Thailand. Human rights groups within Laos are only allowed to operate under government oversight, which normally restricts their investigative power and has never welcomed international oversight in cases involving Lao activists. 

In the shadow of silence, Lao democracy and human rights advocates continue to walk lightly. 

Jack is now undergoing a series of life-saving surgeries. He is not yet out of danger, but as human rights groups are increasing pressure on the Lao government, his call for democracy continues to be clear.

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Grab: Southeast Asia’s leading ride-hailing firm cuts 1,000 jobs

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Grab delivery rider.Grab

Southeast Asia’s leading ride-hailing and food delivery app, Grab, says it is cutting 1,000 jobs – amounting to 11% of its workforce.

The company’s boss said the cuts were needed to bring down costs and ensure affordable services in the long term.

The Singapore-based firm offers deliveries, rides and financial services in eight Southeast Asian countries.

In 2018, Grab took over the operations of US-based rival Uber in the region.

In an email to employees, chief executive Anthony Tan said the cuts, which are the biggest since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, were not “a shortcut to profitability.”

He also highlighted the impact of new technology and rising borrowing costs: “Change has never been this fast. Technology such as generative AI [artificial intelligence] is evolving at breakneck speed. The cost of capital has gone up, directly impacting the competitive landscape.”

The so-called “super-app”, known as “the Uber of Southeast Asia,” offers services across the region, and is present in countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

In March 2018, Grab announced that it had bought Uber’s operations in the region, in a deal it described as “the largest-ever of its kind in Southeast Asia.”

Grab’s last round of job cuts was in 2020, when it shed 360 positions due to the pandemic.

The company’s New York-listed shares dipped by 1.2% on Wednesday.

The announcement comes as other gig economy companies across the world have also cut jobs.

Indonesian ride-hailing firm GoTo, Grab’s rival in Southeast Asia, cut about 12% of its workforce last year and shed another 600 jobs in March.

Also in March, food delivery firm Just Eat said that it would cut 1,870 jobs in the UK after a slowdown in sales. The firm said it would stop employing its own couriers and use contractors instead, resulting in 1,700 job losses.

And in April, US ride-hailing app Lyft announced that it would cut more than 1,000 jobs, or more than a quarter of its workforce. It also said that it would not recruit for another 250 vacant positions.

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I couldn’t get tickets to any of Coldplay’s Singapore shows. Here’s why I think they kept selling out

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As I stared at those words, which I swear was specifically there to mock me, I couldn’t help but wonder: How did we get here?

How did Singapore – a country roasted for not being on the list of Coldplay’s initial Asia stops – end up with six shows?

And more importantly, why couldn’t I get a seat to watch one of my favourite bands despite them playing six shows?

Here’s my attempt to rationalise the whole situation. A coping mechanism, if you will.

1. COLDPLAY’S SG TICKETS ARE MUCH CHEAPER  

Let’s ignore Coldplay’s VIP packages for a second and just focus on the prices of general standing tickets – the spots closest to the stage – across the board in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia’s standing tickets = IDR 350,0000 (S$313)
The Philippines’ standing tickets = P11,000 (S$266)
Thailand’s standing tickets = 5,800 baht (S$224)
Malaysia’s standing tickets  = RM658 (S$190)

In comparison, here’s how much our standing tickets cost: S$168.

With that price tag, coupled with us having more shows, it makes a lot more sense for Coldplay fans in other parts of the region to come to our sunny island to Viva la Vida (and make it a full-blown vacation while they’re at it).

That, in turn, probably explains why queues for Coldplay’s Singapore concerts exceeded a million people. Because judging from past shows by the likes of U2 and Blackpink, Singaporeans are obviously not the only ones watching these acts.

2. THE NATIONAL STADIUM IS AN OBJECTIVELY GOOD VENUE

A question that has been popping up throughout this entire Coldplay discourse is: Why would they play six shows here and not more shows in other countries? Heck, some of the other venues they’re playing at have bigger seating capacities than ours.

The band and their management have not given an official reason (and we’ve also reached out to organisers LiveNation) but personally, I could think of a few.

One of the main ones – and bear with me on this – is that the National Stadium is objectively a good place to hold a concert with this much hype.

We’ve already established that loads of people from all over Asia (and maybe the world) will be coming to Singapore for Coldplay. It will take more than a huge seating capacity to effectively manage this crowd.

Enter the National Stadium.

As someone who recently went to Blackpink’s concert at the National Stadium, I can honestly say that travelling to and from the location is convenient with a capital C. The stadium is a few steps away from Stadium MRT Station and is within walking distance from Kallang MRT Station. Sure, you’ll have to queue up to enter the stations once the concert is over but, thanks to the staff, the lines will be orderly and properly managed.

Plus, National Stadium is near multiple hotels, which bodes well for our overseas friends.

3. COLDPLAY HAS A STELLAR REPUTATION

Over the years, Coldplay has built up a glowing reputation thanks to their solid discography and showmanship. They’re one of the few bands to successfully experiment with different music styles – from the mellow alternative rock vibes of Yellow to the more pop-ish My Universe. This, in turn, has garnered them a wide fanbase, spanning people of multiple ages.

Coupled with Coldplay’s critically acclaimed live performances, it’s no wonder that even casual listeners of the band were clamouring to get tickets for Singapore’s shows.

4. COLDPLAY MEMBERS ARE TRYING TO BE PERMANENT RESIDENTS IN SINGAPORE

I kid, of course. However, a few netizens (including YouTuber Jinnyboy) can’t help but wonder if Coldplay’s six shows signal their desire to obtain permanent residency status here. Bassist Guy Berryman categorically said they loved it the last time they were here with their families.

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RHB recognises top fintech innovators at inaugural RHB Xcelerator demo day

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Startups received 8 weeks of mentorship, consultations from RHB Group units
Program mentored startups in micro banking, customer experience & insurance 

RHB Banking Group announced the graduation of seven growth-stage startups from its inaugural RHB Xcelerator programme.
In a statement by 1337 Ventures, RHB’s partner for RHB Xcelerator, the firm said the accelerator programme…Continue Reading

SE Asia’s alignment up for grabs in New Cold War

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At the ASEAN Summit in 2018, former Australian prime minister Scott Morrison argued that “our relationships with [the US and China] are different, and they’re both successful. Australia doesn’t have to choose and we won’t choose.”  

Yet within two years, Australia found itself choosing decisively to align itself with the United States.

At the same 2018 summit, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong took a less categorical approach to choosing sides. He said “I think it is very desirable for us not to have to take sides, but the circumstances may come where ASEAN may have to choose one or the other. I hope it does not happen soon.”

Since then, US-China competition has only grown more intense. Australia’s “push comes to shove” choice was never in doubt, given it has fought alongside the United States in every post-1945 war in which the United States was involved. But this is not so for ASEAN states.

ASEAN countries are being pulled in different directions — and their alignments may be up for grabs. No ASEAN state wants to make “invidious choices” between China and the United States. But it is instructive to look at how they are currently positioned between the two contending powers.

In an ongoing study, “The Anatomy of Choice: Southeast Asia between the Superpowers,” experts were invited to track the alignments of ASEAN members over time. Preliminary assessments of interactions with the two superpowers since 2014 suggest Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar lean strongly towards China, while Singapore and the Philippines are closer to the United States.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and US President Joe Biden walk to the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC. Photo: Twitter / Screengrab / Pool

These countries probably do not see their existing positions as “invidious.” Given their geography, perception of economic opportunities and military procurement history, their alignment seems natural and has served them well. 

These countries’ angst about not wanting to choose is less about maintaining strategic equidistance between the two superpowers and more about not moving drastically from where they are now.

In between these five states are the classic hedgers — Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Thailand. These are the countries whose alignments may be persuadable.

The current positions of ASEAN countries are not fixed. A survey by the ISEAS-Yusuf Ishak Institute of Southeast Asians from elite educated backgrounds found yearly fluctuations in how ASEAN would choose if it were forced to align itself with the United States or China. 

Comparing overall ASEAN sentiment between 2022 and 2023, the survey found a slight increase among those favoring alignment with the United States, from 57 to 61%.

Especially interesting are the country-specific results. Elite opinion in Cambodia and Laos swung drastically in favor of the United States between 2022 and 2023. Less drastic shifts towards China were seen in Myanmar, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Going by elite opinion, the state of play remains in flux. As a former Singaporean ambassador to the United States quipped, “the United States should not ask Asian countries to choose. You may not like the results if you ask countries to choose.”

There are several key factors that are likely to shape the choices of ASEAN states. In terms of offering economic opportunities, China wins. With geography, continental Southeast Asia needs to accommodate China while maritime Southeast Asia looks to the United States. 

For domestic politics, there is a general preference for the superpower agnostic about political systems — namely China. Estimation of US staying power is another consideration. Most studies conclude that general preferences lean in China’s favor.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Vietnamese leader Nguyen Phu Trong see eye to eye on many things. Image: China Daily

During the Cold War, countries chose a wholesale approach, often on the basis of ideological affinity. Maritime Southeast Asia chose the United States and the West, and the mainland states aligned with China and the Soviet Union.

But today, Southeast Asia seems to be adopting a more piecemeal approach — ASEAN states buy into Chinese or US initiatives as they suit.

Chinese initiatives include the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank, the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. China’s more recent proposals such as the Global Development, Global Security and Global Civilization Initiatives also suggest an active and purposive outreach to the world. 

US initiatives include the aborted Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

If Southeast Asian countries are taking a piecemeal approach to choosing from these available options, China seems to offer more extensive and substantive opportunities for growth. For all its problems, the Belt and Road Initiative provides more incentives compared to the US-led schemes. 

Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, China managed to “eke out a vaccine diplomacy victory” in Southeast Asia through the prompt delivery of its Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines, despite the greater efficacy of US-donated mRNA vaccines. 

Over time, Southeast Asian countries might find that they have inadvertently hitched their economic and strategic fortunes with one side.

Yet not all is lost for those keen on reversing this momentum. The recent experience of the United States with Pacific nations suggests the Global South retains significant goodwill and trust in the West. 

By upping its game in response to Chinese efforts at wooing Pacific countries, the Biden administration fostered a US-Pacific Partnership in September 2022. In contrast, China’s attempt to create a more ambitious region-wide partnership in May 2022 foundered.

The challenge is undoubtedly greater in Southeast Asia. The resources the United States and its allies will need to bring are of a completely different scale, given the competition.

Yuen Foong Khong is Li Ka Shing Professor of Political Science at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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