Southeast Asia – Page 155

Pavinâs book about monarchy banned in Thailand

On: July 8, 2023

Police chief warns of jail and fines for importing yet-to-be published title

Academic and author Pavin Chatchavalpongpun is currently living in exile in Japan where he teaches at Kyoto University. (Photo: Pavin Chatchavalpongpun Facebook page)

A book about the monarchy written by academic-in-exile Pavin Chatchavalpongpun has been banned in Thailand for defaming the monarchy, according to a police announcement published in the Royal Gazette on Friday.

The announcement said the cover and contents of Rama X: The Thai Monarchy under King Vajiralongkorn reflected attitudes deemed insulting, defaming or displaying great malice towards the king, the queen, heir apparent or regent, or threatening national security, peace and order or public morality.

The announcement was signed Pol Gen Damrongsak Kittiprapas, the national police chief, on June 19, according to the Royal Gazette. It cited Section 10 of the Printing Recordation Act BE 2550 (2007) for banning the book.

Anyone who imports the book into Thailand is liable to a jail term of up to 3 years and/or a fine of up to 60,000 baht. The police chief had the authority to destroy the book, said the announcement, which takes effect immediately.

“My book has been banned despite the fact that nobody has read it,” Mr Pavin wrote on his Facebook page. “It will be on shelves in the United States in October and an e-book will also be available.”

Mr Pavin, 52, is a professor at Kyoto University and editor-in-chief of the Kyoto Review of Southeast Asia, published by the school’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies.

He worked for the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs for 13 years before becoming a political science academic. He has been an outspoken critic of the political establishment and pushed for reform of Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the lese-majesté law.

He moved to Japan in 2012 to take up his position at Kyoto University, but continued to comment regularly on Thai affairs for international publications.

After the 2014 military coup, he was ordered to report to authorities but he refused. The National Council for Peace and Order subsequently issued an arrest warrant for Mr Pavin but he declined to return to Thailand and has lived abroad ever since.

US-China decoupling headed in a dangerous direction

By: Bolen C

On: July 8, 2023

In: Asia

The US and Chinese economies are closely interconnected, but their ties are eroding. Despite record levels of US-China bilateral trade in 2022, the trading relationship is becoming less interdependent. Rising tensions between Washington and Beijing are driving US and Chinese investors away from each market.

Perhaps the most consequential aspect of US-China decoupling is in technology. Security competition between the United States and China is increasingly embedded in approaches to domestic industrial and technological development. This tech war will hurt both economies and have profound global implications.

Bilateral trade between the United States and China continues to expand despite the trade-war tariffs and escalating tech restrictions that the United States has imposed on China. But bilateral trade expansion is slowing and is growing at only one-fifth the pace of the overall US trade expansion.

The share of US imports coming from China has declined, while China has shifted some imports of foreign goods away from the United States. The composition of US-China bilateral trade has also shifted away from goods with the highest tariffs.

Data on bilateral trade alone does not show the full picture of US-China commercial ties. Since the tariff war began, China’s direct investment in Southeast Asia has skyrocketed — reaching US$128 billion in 2020. US imports from Southeast Asia are also expanding rapidly.

But China’s share of the imported content in Vietnam’s exports nearly doubled from 2017 to 2021. Similarly, Chinese firms elsewhere in Southeast Asia source a large share of the parts and components in their US exports from China. The Chinese content of US imports from Southeast Asia is likely on the rise, offsetting the slowdown in direct US imports from China.

China’s trade with the US is still booming in the ‘decoupling’ era. Photo: DTN / Chris Clayton

Cumulative direct investment in China by US firms reached $124 billion in 2020, according to data from the Office of the United States Trade Representative. But the 25th annual China Business Survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China shows that a declining share of US companies see China as an investment priority because of rising tensions, a lack of regulatory consistency in China and rising costs of labor.

The survey also shows that though most US firms operating in China plan to stay, a rising share are considering shifting supply chains out of China — including Apple and Google.

Prospects of US investment in China are clouded by potential US restrictions on outbound investment to China. The Biden administration is concerned that US investors may be helping to advance Chinese technology in critical sectors and is developing a mechanism to constrain the flow of US investment into China.

But because US firms constitute a relatively small portion of total foreign direct investment, such a screening scheme will only be effective if other states are involved. The difficulties of convincing others to develop similar programs may be causing the delay in the launch of a US outbound investment screening scheme.

Private and state-owned Chinese firms are facing greater scrutiny in the United States. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States has seen its investigations involving Chinese investors surge since 2021.

Among all jurisdictions, investors from China face the most scrutiny. The most recent high-profile case involves TikTok, whose CEO was recently grilled by the US Congress. The company now faces the risk of being banned in the United States unless it splits from its Chinese parent company ByteDance.

US-China decoupling in technology is undoubtedly intensifying. Beginning with Trump’s restrictions on US exports to Huawei in 2018, the United States has been stepping up its tech restrictions on China in the past five years. By the end of 2022 about 400 Chinese persons on the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons list were prohibited from engaging in any transactions involving US persons.

In March 2023, 665 Chinese companies on the US Entity List were subject to restrictions on the flows of certain technology and goods from the United States. China responded with its own Unreliable Entity List in September 2020. So far only two US aerospace and defense companies are listed and prohibited from trading with or investing in China.

US-China technological decoupling escalated in September 2022 when US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced a profound shift in US economic policy on China. Rather than designing export restrictions to keep China’s critical technologies a generation behind that of the United States, the US objective is now to freeze China’s current level of technological development.

As the US tech frontier continues to expand, the gap between the two countries would widen, causing China to fall further behind.

In October 2022, the Biden administration announced export restrictions on certain equipment and services to Chinese semiconductor companies, aiming at slowing China’s ability to produce advanced chips – a US national security concern. Japan and the Netherlands have joined the US effort in restricting exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China.

Given the stated US goal in maintaining “as large of a lead as possible” in semiconductors, quantum computing, artificial intelligence and other critical sectors, it is not surprising that China’s President Xi Jinping has stated that the United States attempts to contain, encircle and suppress China.

The US wants as “large a lead as possible” in high-tech areas. Image: Twitter

China is now pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into cutting-edge technologies to achieve self-sufficiency. The West’s economic sanctions following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine worry Chinese leaders who fear similar sanctions could be applied to China if it pursues reunification with Taiwan.

Technological decoupling raises serious concerns about global growth in the short and long term. A 2021 IMF study identifies three direct channels where technological decoupling can affect global growth — reduced global trade flows, misallocation of resources and less cross-border knowledge diffusion.

Together with trade fragmentation and “friend-shoring”, technological decoupling can lead to significant economic losses globally. The drive for self-sufficiency is costly and success is not guaranteed.

Reining in techno-nationalism is in the United States and China’s interests, but the political reality in both capitals is making rational policy formulation extremely difficult.

Nicholas R Lardy is Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Tianlei Huang is Research Fellow and China Program Coordinator at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

Work It podcast: DBS CEO on blame culture and âair coverâ when things go wrong

By: Marcus Ching

On: July 7, 2023

In: South-East Asia

The second big part is this: Received wisdom then and even now has always been that it’s very hard for old companies to change, it’s very hard for old people to change. And it’s something that I’ve never believed … look (at) those in their 40s and 50s and 60s. We’re all changing in our personal lives.

When people have changed in their personal lives, why do we think they can’t change in a company? I have this big belief that the problem is not with human beings; the problem is with the company.”

ON HOW FAILURE CHANGED HIM

Gupta: When you’ve seen the bottom of the barrel, which is what I thought I was seeing (when his own business went bust during the dotcom crash), it changes your outlook. It changed my appetite for risk. At the end of the day, the change is so rapid and change is accelerating … without making some bets, without taking some moonshots, or taking some risks, you’re not going to succeed.

In my 20s and 30s, building a career was probably my single biggest driver. How do I make sure that I can get ahead, I get promoted, I get a bigger job, I become the youngest managing director?

DBS CEO Piyush Gupta on blame culture and âair coverâ when things go wrong

By: Marcus Ching

On: July 7, 2023

In: South-East Asia

ON HOW FAILURE CHANGED HIM

In my 20s and 30s, building a career was probably my single biggest driver. How do I make sure that I can get ahead, I get promoted, I get a bigger job, I become the youngest managing director?

Phuket aims to become âsafest cityâ

By: Barkar Nash

On: July 7, 2023

In: South-East Asia

Deputy governor and industry reps discuss ways to improve services and safety

Tourists relax on a beach in Phuket. (File photo: Achadthaya Chuenniran)

PHUKET: An effort is under way to make Phuket the safest city in Southeast Asia following a number of incidents involving tourists.

Danai Sunantarod, deputy governor of the southern tourist province, expressed the aim at a meeting on Friday with representatives of tour and travel agencies.

Their discussion of security on the island highlighted several recent incidents that have been a cause for concern.

In May, a speedboat crashed into a channel marker in Chalong Bay, injuring 35 people, mostly Russian tourists. The boat driver was believed to have dozed off.

In February, Mr Danai said, a Chinese tourist was wounded in a knife attack by a travel agent after a disagreement over a refund for a day trip that the visitor missed. Tourists drowning in Phuket also raise questions about safety, he said.

“We have to learn from these incidents,” Mr Danai said. “We want to make our home safe for our visitors. We want to be the safest city in the region.”

He said the private and public sectors must cooperate to ensure the safety of tourists, while police officers must enforce the law.

“We will tighten safety measures because we don’t want to have scammers in Phuket,” he said, referring to the case involving the Chinese tourist.

“We also want tour operators to eliminate the dual pricing system because it makes our guests feel bad,” he said, referring to a system in which foreign visitors, including expatriates, are charged more than Thais for services. (Attractions that engage in the practice are listed on 2pricethailand.com)

Mr Danai said Phuket had become a famous destination due to its beautiful beaches, variety of food, unique culture and good hospitality. The province has received local and international recognition, including a Unesco Creative City of Gastronomy listing in 2015.

Phuket welcomed 5.6 million tourists last year, who brought in about 200 billion baht for the resort island, he said. About 60-70% of them were foreigners. More tourists will come this year to reach the province’s target of 10 million, he said.

Ratchadaporn Oin, head of the Tourism and Sports Ministry office in Phuket, said tour guides and operators have an important role to play in keeping tourists safe. They must know the rules so customers will know what can and cannot be done, she said.

For example, Ms Ratchadaporn said, guides must inform tourists not to touch marine life for pictures or feed fish while snorkelling or diving.

“We urge you to take good care of tourists to make them feel safe,” she said. “It will help boost the good image of the island.”

Questioning Australiaâs AUKUS spending rationale

By: Bolen C

On: July 7, 2023

In: Asia

Australia’s purchase of nuclear submarines under the AUKUS agreement has been framed in terms of the jobs that would be created in submarine construction, rather than the security benefits that would flow to Australia from their deployment some decades hence.

This is a longstanding tradition. Because defense is an essential function of any national government, military spending has rarely — if ever — been subject to benefit-cost analysis.

And in the absence of any specific rationale for particular defense expenditure projects, such as a current or imminent war, a variety of economic benefits have been cited as reasons for approving those projects.

Decision-making with respect to military expenditure should begin with a single central objective, that of national self-defense against invasion, with other possible uses of military force being regarded as peripheral.

In any such assessment, expenditure that significantly reduces the existential risk of invasion, air attack or naval blockade can be regarded as essential.

Any other use of military power needs to be assessed in terms of opportunity costs and benefits. That is, military spending should be compared to alternative public and private expenditures — ideally those with comparable benefits.

For example, contributions to Ukraine’s resistance to the Russian invasion could be compared to civilian forms of overseas aid. Such an assessment could include both direct benefits, such as protecting civilians from war and hunger, as well as global public goods, including upholding international law and reducing the instability associated with mass poverty.

Various claims are frequently made to present a strong case for military expenditure, but they are rarely subject to careful scrutiny. The Australian government’s assertion that the AUKUS nuclear submarine purchases are needed to protect vital international shipping routes, such as to Singapore or through the South China Sea, is one example of such a claim.

A Royal Australian Navy sailor working on an anti-aircraft gun aboard the HMAS Canberra. Photo: Screengrab / NTV

Generally, such shipping routes are convenient rather than vital. Except for trade with China itself, all shipping that currently flows through the South China Sea could take alternative roundabout routes if necessary. In the worst case, shipping from Europe to East and Southeast Asia could travel south of Australia.

This is not merely hypothetical. The Suez Canal was long regarded as a vital route, but when it was blocked shipping had to go around the Cape of Good Hope. The resulting cost increases were large relative to the shorter route, but tiny in relation to the national income of the countries involved in trade. Similar points can be made with even more force about problems such as piracy.

By contrast, a full-scale naval blockade — of the kind seen during the world wars aimed at starving the target nation into submission — does represent an existential risk. But the risk of such a blockade for Australia is negligible except in the event of a new world war, which would probably involve the use of nuclear weapons, against which no current defense is feasible.

Claims about the usefulness of military power to seize resources are obsolete, as observed by Norman Angell in his 1911 book, “The Great Illusion.” Though Angell’s arguments were ignored, the First World War proved his point in disastrous fashion for all of the major participants. A century of subsequent experience has yielded ample confirmation that war never yields net economic benefits.

This is particularly true of the oil, gas and fishery resources of the South China Sea, which have been the subject of disputes for decades. Despite regular saber-rattling and occasional low-level conflict, the actual conduct of the countries in the region reflects the fact that these resources are not worth fighting over.

The crucial issues for Australia arise in relation to expeditionary forces, typically deployed as part of operations undertaken by the United States. Before considering the possible benefits of such deployment, it is worth observing that outright failure – as seen in Afghanistan and Vietnam – has been the most common outcome and that successes, such as in Iraq and Syria, have been equivocal at best.

The number of expeditionary operations is large enough to consider benefits and costs. To evaluate the benefits, Australia’s relationships with regimes where expeditionary forces were defeated can be compared with those where forces were “successful” in military terms. It is hard to see a difference sufficient to justify the loss of lives and money.

The AUKUS nuclear submarine deal is making ripples across the Indo-Pacific. Image: US Embassy in China

On AUKUS, approaches to public investment, whether military or civil, based on counts of “jobs created” are rarely satisfactory. In most cases, the workers filling these jobs are diverted from other, higher-value activities, with no effect on the level of employment and unemployment.

In this context, it is perhaps churlish to observe that the estimated cost of AU$18 million per job created by AUKUS is massively more than in a typical domestic boondoggle.

The real question yet to be answered about the AUKUS deal is how, if at all, the submarines that Australia is buying will protect us against the fortunately remote threat of foreign conquest.

John Quiggin is Australian Laureate Fellow at the School of Economics at the University of Queensland.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

Opinion: E.U. tilting at windmills with new Deforestation Regulation

By: Jing Write

On: July 7, 2023

In: South-East Asia

The E.U.’s Regulation on deforestation-free products is starting to play out like Don Quixote.

Much as the protagonist in the 17th century Spanish epic, the E.U. sees itself as a knight seeking to do good – and, in the process, finding enemies where there may be none. On a quest to limit the ecological impacts of E.U. commodities imports, this regulation is tilting at windmills, attacking illusionary foes.

The windmills right now in the E.U.’s case are countries that export commodities such as timber, palm oil, coffee, cocoa and rubber to Europe, which has long called for greater monitoring of the environmental impact of this kind of trade.

At its core, the new legislation, which entered into force on 29 June, holds that firms importing goods into Europe need to prove they did not originate from land cleared since 31 December, 2020. Companies must also confirm imported commodities are produced in compliance with the “relevant laws” of their country of origin.

Trade partners such as Indonesia and Malaysia, which together produce about 83% of the world’s palm oil supply, share many of the ecological goals and declarations as stated by E.U. lawmakers.

But in May, the two sent a mission to Brussels arguing the Deforestation Regulation discriminated against their palm-oil-dependent economies and would harm their agricultural sectors. Both have long perceived the E.U. as taking unfair advantage of palm oil to stifle competition against its own oilseed crops, particularly rapeseed, and view the new regulation as yet another act of economic protectionism pressed under the cover of environmental concern.

In 2018, when Europe banned palm oil from biofuel use under the E.U. Renewable Energy Directive (RED), palm-oil-producing states lobbed accusations of ‘crop apartheid’. They soon appeared vindicated when the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) published a report acknowledging the land efficiency and productivity of palm oil as a crop – as compared to other seed-oils, including those preferred by Europe – meant there were “no easy solutions” to regulating its role in deforestation.

“Palm oil is decimating South East Asia’s rich diversity of species as it eats into swathes of tropical forest,” said Erik Meijaard, the report’s lead author and then-chair of IUCN’s Oil Palm Task Force. “But if it is replaced by much larger areas of rapeseed, soy or sunflower fields, different natural ecosystems and species may suffer. To put a stop to the destruction we must work towards deforestation-free palm oil, and make sure all attempts to limit palm oil use are informed by solid scientific understanding of the consequences.”

The new Deforestation Regulation are unconvincing on that last point, which should concern conservation-minded readers. To their credit, the E.U. Commission has set up a Joint Task Force with Malaysia and Indonesia to address issues related to palm oil smallholders and other challenges of the regulation’s implementation.

But they’ll have to work quickly on that front. European importers now have 18 months or less to find a way to comply with this new legislation. The only sure way for them to meet this target is if the E.U. acknowledges certification programs for targeted commodities. For the palm oil industries, national programmes such as the Malaysia Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) scheme and its Indonesian counterpart (ISPO), must be counted in as credible enablers towards meeting the regulatory deadline.

Though these domestic sustainability schemes are not perfect programmes, they have greatly developed in recent years and have made tangible advancements in reigning in deforestation.

This would seem to be evidenced by the World Resources Institute (WRI) in its latest report on Global Forest Review. The report found that Indonesia and Malaysia marked near-record low levels of deforestation even as tropical forest loss elsewhere worsened in 2022, making specific mention of the MSPO and other domestic, industry-focused measures of recent years.

This kind of data will be instrumental in the E.U.-Malaysia-Indonesia task force’s work to resolve the palm oil problem, which stands in the way of trade deals between the three entities. If the E.U. refuses to acknowledge the ongoing efforts to make the industry more sustainable, it will effectively discourage its further advancement – instead incentivising producers to turn their backs on the European market as they seek less discriminating trade partners in Africa and Asia.

Major exporting countries such as Brazil, the world’s biggest exporter of soy, have chosen to brush off the demands of the new E.U. regulation by quoting national laws as being compliant with global commitments. It is worth noting at this point that the expansion of soy plantations is the second-largest direct driver of deforestation and conversion, after the expansion of pasture for cattle farming and land speculation.

Brazil’s confidence in maintaining its exports is bolstered by China and – as a further disregard of what the E.U. is demanding in terms of deforestation – these two countries have made a joint commitment to end illegal deforestation. This is very different from what the E.U. is demanding, which is that all imported commodities must be free of deforestation, whether legal or illegal.

Back in Southeast Asia, E.U. Member of Parliament Bernd Lange has appealed for understanding of the E.U.’s position in an opinion published in The Jakarta Post. The European Parliament in ASEAN tweeted in support, urging a constructive and result-oriented negotiation with Indonesia towards a trade agreement.

Such negotiations are in everybody’s best interest, especially when compared to a more Quixotic approach. But the European Parliament should note that consensus on the regulation can only be reached when the E.U. stops making one-sided demands on its trade partners and engages with them as part of the solution to greener supply chains – not as the problem.

Robert Hii is an independent industry monitor whose focus is on the sustainability of palm oil. He was born in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, and later moved to Canada. He now runs CSPO Watch, a platform that monitors the palm oil industry with a focus on sustainability.

Pita invites Taylor Swift to Thailand

By: Barkar Nash

On: July 6, 2023

In: South-East Asia

Aspiring PM tells pop star who cancelled after 2014 coup that country is ‘fully democratic’ now

Taylor Swift performs onstage on the first night of her Eras Tour at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on March 31. (Photo: AFP)

Taylor Swift is coming to Southeast Asia next year but fans will have to go to Singapore if they want to see her.

But if Pita Limjaroenrat has his way, the American pop megastar will add Thailand to her itinerary. After all, he said, she’s overdue for an appearance here, having cancelled a planned performance in 2014 shortly after the military coup.

The Move Forward party leader and prime ministerial candidate made the pitch on Wednesday evening on Twitter in response to a tweet from Swift about new dates being added to the European leg of her Eras Tour in 2024. He wrote:

“Hey Taylor! Big fan of yours. Btw, Thailand is back on track to be fully democratic after you had to cancel last time due to the coup. The Thai people have spoken via the election and we all look forward to welcoming you to this beautiful nation of ours!

Do come and I’ll be singing Lavender Haze with you!

– Tim”

Swift was scheduled to play a sold-out show in Bangkok on June 9, 2014. But a curfew was in place in the immediate aftermath of the military coup staged by Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha on May 22 of that year.

Organisers BEC-Tero announced on May 27 that the concert was being cancelled “due to recent events”. It did not elaborate.

The singer played some other dates in June of that year but the Bangkok show was never rescheduled.

Swift is scheduled to play six shows in Singapore starting on March 2 next year. Online presales of tickets opened on Wednesday with more than a million people reported to have been in the queue.

Hey Taylor! Big fan of yours. Btw, Thailand is back on track to be fully democratic after you had to cancel last time due to the coup. The Thai people have spoken via the election and we all look forward to welcoming you to this beautiful nation of ours!

Do come and I’ll be… https://t.co/ypox90kRpL

— Pita Limjaroenrat (@Pita_MFP) July 6, 2023

50 consumer complaints filed against e-commerce firm Mdada in span of six months

By: Marcus Ching

On: July 6, 2023

In: South-East Asia

SINGAPORE: The Consumers Association of Singapore (CASE) has received 50 complaints against e-commerce firm Mdada between Jan 1 and Jun 30, 2023.

These were generally from consumers who did not receive their orders within committed delivery timeframes.

Other complaints included incomplete deliveries, delays in receiving refunds for non-deliveries and defective or incorrect products, CASE President Mr Melvin Yong said in a statement on Thursday (Jul 6).

“CASE has written to Mdada to seek resolution for the outstanding complaints,” he added.

Singapore-based Mdada, founded in September 2020 by hairstylist Addy Lee, actor-host Pornsak Prajakwit and actress Michelle Chia, describes itself as the “fastest-growing and largest” livestream commerce multi-channel in Southeast Asia.

It offers a range of beauty and lifestyle products, as well as luxury items.

According to Mr Yong, at least four consumers are yet to receive orders or refunds as of Tuesday, despite Mdada’s commitment to resolve all outstanding orders by June.

“If Mdada is unable to fulfil outstanding orders or if affected consumers no longer wish to proceed with their orders due to the extended delay, they should effect the refund expeditiously,” he said.

“It is unfair for Mdada to hold on to consumers’ monies indefinitely if they are unable to fulfil the orders.”

On Wednesday, the company posted an apology on Facebook, asking customers to bear with them for “a little more” as they settle “teething issues”.

Mdada said it has “progressively paid out refunds for orders that are out of stock or have experienced inordinate delays in shipments”.

Overseas shipments are being expedited to reach customers as soon as they arrive in Singapore, it added.

“Due to manpower shortage, longer processing time is required, impacting our operations,” said the firm, while promising to ensure communication with customers via WhatsApp to be “as painless as possible, with almost immediate” responses and updates.

CNA has contacted Mdada for more information.

Affected customers may approach CASE for assistance via their website or their hotline at 6277-5100.

Shanghai Cooperation Organizationâs facade of unity

By: Bolen C

On: July 6, 2023

In: Asia

This week, India virtually hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which brought together the most powerful nations across the Asian landmass and beyond. Among those in attendance were no less than Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The latest SCO Council of Heads of State meeting was particularly crucial since it formalized the full membership of yet another major Asian power, Iran. In his opening remarks, Modi congratulated the SCO’s latest member while also signaling that Russian ally Belarus could soon also join the power grouping.

Member states also discussed other pressing issues including infrastructure connectivity challenges, cross-border security, insurgency and terrorism, and the increasingly volatile situation in Afghanistan, which shares a border with multiple SCO members.

Putin, the embattled Russian leader who just saw down a mutiny some have characterized as a coup attempt, used the occasion to project strength and expressed hope for greater strategic cooperation with like-minded Asian powers.

Under India’s rotational watch, the SCO was adamant that its expanding ranks do not necessarily signal a budding new military alliance. Yet all key members are committed to facilitating a more multipolar international order.

Despite their shared strategic interests, however, the latest SCO summit also revealed growing tensions among the world’s two largest nations, namely India and China.

Although India has refused to align with the West in the name of non-alignment, Modi implicitly criticized China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and robust defense ties with Pakistan, India’s archrival.

Reeling from its own festering border disputes with Beijing in the Himalayas, the South Asian powerhouse is also expanding defense cooperation with China’s rivals in the South China Sea, most notably the Philippines, a US treaty ally.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet at the SCO summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on June 9, 2017. Photo: Sputnik / Alexei Nikolsky / Kremlin via Reuters — Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet at the SCO summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on June 9, 2017. Photo: Sputnik / Alexei Nikolsky / Kremlin

For his part, Putin put on a brave face amid a Wagner Group mutiny, a grinding war in Ukraine and economic recession at home.

Striking a defiant note, the Russian leader claimed that his country is stronger than ever, as it “counters all these external sanctions, pressures and provocations and continues to develop as never before.”

“I would like to thank my colleagues from the SCO countries who expressed support for the actions of the Russian leadership to protect the constitutional order and the life and security of citizens,” Putin told his SCO colleagues in a televised address from the Kremlin, referring to expressions of diplomatic support by neighboring states at the height of Russia’s political crisis last month.

SCO members such as India and China have been crucial to Russia’s economic resilience in the face of Western sanctions.

Russo-Chinese trade has exploded on a year-on-year basis. In the first five months of this year, bilateral trade totaled more than US$93.8 billion, making a 40.7% increase on an annual basis. Meanwhile, India has rapidly become Russia’s largest oil customer, just as Western economies have punitively scaled back their Russian energy imports.

Russia hopes that the inclusion of Iran, another major strategic partner that is also battling Western sanctions, would further enhance its pivot to Asia by facilitating the creation of a pan-regional trade and infrastructure development regime, with Central Asian SCO members as the geographic linchpin.

Putin was also visibly pleased by the vocal support of his most powerful SCO ally. China, the organization’s founding member, called for a new global order beyond the dictates of the West. Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping firmly stood by his Russian ally and, accordingly, accused the West of a “narrow-minded” and zero-sum approach to 21^st century geopolitics.

“We should truly respect each other’s core interests and major concerns, and firmly support each other’s endeavor for development and rejuvenation. We should keep in mind the overall and long-term interests of our region, and make our foreign policies independently,” Xi told his SCO colleagues.

“We must be highly vigilant against external attempts to foment a new Cold War or camp-based confrontation in our region. We must resolutely reject any interference in our internal affairs and the instigation of ‘color revolutions’ by any country under whatever pretext,” he added, underscoring the need for solidarity among Eastern powers in face of supposed Western aggression.

Although committed to a more multipolar international order, India has a radically divergent strategic calculus than its Russian and Chinese SCO counterparts. For starters, the South Asian powerhouse, which is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (“Quad”) along with the US, Australia and Japan, does not face any Western sanctions.

By and large, the West has relented in the face of India’s insistence on continuing its robust trade and defense ties with Russia. If anything, the West is focused on providing carrots rather than sticks in its dealings with India.

During his recent visit to the White House, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed onto a series of defense deals, which are explicitly designed to reduce his country’s historical dependence on Moscow.

India’s divergent outlook was clearly on display during the SCO summit. On one hand, Modi implicitly criticized China’s BRI, refusing to back the infrastructure development initiative embraced by all other SCO members.

“Strong connectivity is crucial for the progress of any region. Better connectivity not only enhances mutual trade but also fosters mutual trust,” said the Indian leader while not mentioning either the BRI or China explicitly.

“However, in these efforts, it is essential to uphold the basic principles of the SCO charter, particularly respecting the sovereignty and regional integrity of the member states,” he added, effectively echoing “debt trap” accusations against China’s signature infrastructure initiative.

A mountain pass along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Image: Facebook

If anything, the Indian leader also took a jab at China’s warm ties with neighboring Pakistan. During the SCO meeting, where both the Chinese and Pakistani leaders were in attendance, Modi warned against the “use [of] cross-border terrorism as an instrument” of foreign policy, referring to allegations that Pakistani intelligence elements have been involved in violent operations inside India.

Growing geopolitical differences stretch way beyond India’s own backyard. New Delhi is now actively backing China’s rivals in Southeast Asia. Earlier this year, the South Asian power officially kicked off negotiations for the sale of BrahMos supersonic missiles to Vietnam, which has long been at loggerheads with China in the South China Sea.

Just days ahead of the SCO summit, India also held high-stakes bilateral strategic dialogue with the Philippines, another major claimant state in the Beijing-claimed waters.

Following its acquisition of the BrahMos missle system last year, Manila is intent on further expanding military cooperation with the South Asian powerhouse. Anticipating booming ties, India is set to dispatch its first-ever defense attaché to Manila.

During the 5th India-Philippines Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation meeting in New Delhi last week, co-chaired by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Secretary for Foreign Affairs of the Philippines Enrique Manalo, India reiterated its support for the Manila-initiated arbitral tribunal award at The Hague in 2016, which rejected Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea as incompatible with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

In a joint statement, India and the Philippines underscored the “need for peaceful settlement of disputes and for adherence to international law, especially the UNCLOS and the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea in this regard.”

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter at @Richeydarian

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ON HOW FAILURE CHANGED HIM

ON HOW FAILURE CHANGED HIM