US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s latest comments on conversations with Russia demonstrate that the US’s negotiating position has toughened.
The initial comment echoed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by calling for an absolute 30-day ceasefire and threatened to impose sanctions if it ’s violated. The next revealed that Russia’s demand for Ukraine to retreat from the remainder of the contested areas is “asking for too much. ”
Together, they confirm growing US frustration with the Russian peace method, which began in late March. Up therefore, Trump threatened to establish strictly enforced secondary sanctions against those who purchase Russia’s crude if he determined the deals are responsible for the peace talks ’ possible loss.
One quarter afterwards, he speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “just tapping me along”, during which time he reaffirmed the extra punishment risk. Soon after, the US and Ukraine signed their long-awaited materials deal, which this analysis these accurately predicted would become followed by more National arms deals.
Although it was planned considerably in advance of said improvements, Putin’s latest meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow probably took the form of Russia’s comment considering the two spent a whopping seven hours along in discussions.
It was foreseen before their appointment that “Putin & Xi Does Weed Out A Grand Deal That May Enter Into Force If The Ukraine Talks Collapse”, which appears to have been exactly what happened and could have provoked Trump’s latest article.
The US now knows that Russia is against an absolute 30-day ceasefire because it clearly fears, per the precedent of earlier ceasefires during the Minsk Accords era, that this could be exploited to provide Ukraine time to turn its troops and regroup away of reinitiating hostilities.
It’s also critical for Russia to get full control over the remainder of the contested areas as part of a peace offer in order to fully use and “denazify” those provinces that it now considers to be its own.
Vance’s feedback make it clear that the US considers this to be “asking too many ” and thus won’t coerce Ukraine into withdrawing from them, hence suggesting that Trump’s later call for an absolute 30-day peace is meant to continuously freeze the Line of Contact against Russia’s desires.
Threatening strictly enforced secondary sanctions for lack of compliance, presumably against those who purchase Russia’s oil is meant to simultaneously pressure Putin and his country ’s top oil clients, including China.
Trump’s disclosure that he discussed joint efforts to end the Ukrainian conflict in his latest call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his recent remark about how “ I think it ’s a natural thing to ask ” China to assist with this suggest that he envisages Erdogan and Xi pressuring Putin.
They would be incentivized to do so for fear of the US enforcing Trump’s threatened secondary sanctions against their countries if they refuse or fail after trying. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be roped into this, too, since India is another top buyer of Russian oil.
Unless there’s a breakthrough, such as Russia steamrolling across the Line of Contact or conceding to freeze it in exchange for something significant from the US ( which the public might not be privy to ), this sequence of events suggests that the peace process might soon collapse.
The US is preparing for that scenario by signaling why it might happen from its perspective and hinting at what it’ll do in that case ( i. e. more anti-Russian sanctions and arms for Ukraine ) so its proxy war with Russia might soon escalate.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.