Southeast Asia (Page 12)

MANILA – US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s attend to Manila brought a sigh of relief to his Filipino visitors and new reason for military problem in China.

Major Spanish officials and strategists have fretted for weeks about potential problems and possible devaluations in proper relations amid signs of an isolationist change in Washington’s international policy under Donald Trump.

Next month, Philippine Ambassador to Washington Jose Manuel Romualdez officially warned that his country should actively plan for the day when it can no longer depend on its century-old American alliance.

The high-profile explore by the US defence chief, who will soon be followed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has probably put those proper doubts somewhat to sleep.

During his kindness visit at the Malacañang Palace, Hagseth told Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr that President Trump sends his good intentions and” thinks very warmly of this great state”.

Crucially, Hegseth underscored how both the US president and he “want to express the ironclad commitment we have to the Mutual Defense Treaty ( MDT ) and to the partnership, economically, militarily, which our staffs have worked on diligently for weeks and weeks and months”.

In reaction, the Filipino head praised how the attend was” a very strong evidence and sends a very powerful message of the responsibility of both our countries to continue to work together, to maintain the peace in the Indo-Pacific Place within the South China Sea”.

Beyond diplomatic niceties, Hegseth also announced crucial upgrades to bilateral military cooperation to “re-establish deterrence” in light of rising tensions between Manila and Beijing over contested territories in the South China Sea.

In particular, Hagseth announced the deployment of the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System ( NMESIS), a naval strike missile-equipped unmanned ground vehicle capable of striking targets up to 100 nautical miles away, for this year’s edition of Philippine-US Balikatan exercise.

The US defense chief also announced the deployment of unspecified “highly-capable unmanned surface vehicles” for planned joint drills in the South China Sea. He was likely referring to US-made Maritime Tactical Systems T-12 MANTAS and Devil Ray T-38 drones, which were used by American troops deployed to the Philippines earlier.

Moreover, special forces from both sides are also slated to conduct joint exercises in Batanes, the Philippines ‘ northernmost province facing Taiwan. Despite the ongoing freeze on US overseas aid, Hagseth also reassured his hosts of the$ 500-million commitment in foreign military financing this year to help modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP).

The two sides also announced further improvements to military facilities used by rotational US forces in the Philippines under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ( EDCA ).

” We will enhance our current EDCA locations and we will make improvements. Mind you, these are Philippine bases of which we have to invest in. We will enhance them for logistical support”, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr said during a joint press conference with his American counterpart.

Most crucially, in a move that will deliberately irk China, Hegseth’s visit paved the way for the United States Indo-Pacific Command ( Indopacom ) to deploy a second mid-range Typhon Missile System battery to the Philippines for upcoming joint exercises.

The current Typhon system is capable of striking strategic targets within a 500 to 2, 000-kilometer range, which means it could conceivably hit many of China’s southern military bases. It was first deployed to the Philippines as part of joint exercises last year but was not removed after the drills were completed.

China has strongly protested the highly mobile system’s deployment to the Philippines, claiming that the US is fueling a regional arms race. The Wall Street Journal noted it marked the first time since the Cold War that the US military has deployed a land-based launching system with such a long range outside its borders.

The&nbsp, Lockheed Martin-built system, which has four launchers, a battery operations center, modified trailers and prime movers, boasts a vertical launch system that utilizes Tomahawk and Raytheon-built Standard Missile-6 missiles.

In the event of a conflict in the South China Sea or neighboring Taiwan, the Typhon missile could counter China’s famed” DF” anti-cruise ballistic missile ( ASBM ) launchers.

Accordingly, the vaunted American medium-range mobile missile system provides a tremendous deterrence effect, especially if deployed on a large scale and across strategic locations in the Philippines.

” This is a welcome development for the Armed Forces of the Philippines. We can say that the more the merrier. So the more assets that we have, the more also that we are able to train more personnel on our part. So we accept this willingly”, AFP spokesperson Colonel Francel Margareth Padilla told reporters after the announcement of the potential deployment of an additional Typhon missile battery as part of joint exercises this year.

” We welcome events like this because this would help our personnel train faster. So we welcome if it will arrive”, Philippine Army spokesperson Colonel Louie Dema-ala said. Last year, Philippine officials welcomed the’ permanent’ stationing of the weapons system in EDCA facilities and, down the road, even direct acquisition for the AFP.

The US Army’s 3rd MDTF, headquartered in Hawaii, is also&nbsp, slated to soon receive its own Typhon battery, underscoring the growing importance of advanced missile systems in America’s regional defense strategy. &nbsp,

” We’re constantly looking for opportunities to exercise capability like that forward in theater… We learn enormous lessons by bringing capability into the theater”, Col. Michael Rose, the 3rd MDTF commander, told reporters recently.

Crucially, the US official confirmed that the Typhon deployment will undirgird&nbsp, Operation Pathways, a series of year-round exercises aimed at establishing an “integrated deterrence” strategy with Asian allies to counter China’s rising power.

Before Hegseth’s visit, China hoped to steer the second Trump administration away from closer defense cooperation with Manila.

At a press briefing last week, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun warned the Philippines that “nothing good could come out of opening the door to a predator]America ]” and that those willing to be pawns in great power competition” will be deserted in the end”.

China’s statements came amid growing doubts about America’s commitment to its frontline Asian allies, including the Philippines. The rise of isolationist figures in the Pentagon, the so-called “restrainers”, has been a great source of concern among America’s traditional Asian allies, not least in Manila.

In an essay months ahead of his appointment as Pentagon’s Southeast Asia chief, Andrew Byers, for instance, advocated for Washington to effectively abandon its Philippine ally in exchange for cooperative schemes with China to de-escalate tensions in the South China Sea.

A top US general also played into anxieties among Filipinos when he announced that the US forces would not conduct a live-fire operation of its&nbsp, the Typhon Missile System during upcoming exercises in the Philippines. &nbsp,

” We are not planning to conduct live-fire in the Philippines right now”, Major General Jeffrey VanAntwerp, deputy chief of staff of operations, plans and training at US Army Pacific, told reporters ahead of Hagseth’s visit. His comments raised fears in Manila of potential retrenchment by the Pentagon in exchange for improved relations with Beijing.

But the US defense chief’s visit and largely dispelled those worries as the Trump administration’s plans for confronting China in the Pacific start to come into clearer view.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

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The military government led by coup-maker Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is now in a dangerous and vulnerable place due to Myanmar’s generally disastrous disaster in the middle of an ongoing civil war. Does the natural catastrophe, which hit Mandalay, Sagaing, and the defense enclave capital of Naypyidaw particularly hard, cause a simultaneous regime collapse?

In quake-hit places, rebel groups have declared a peace to help support to reach the patients. The military government reported that 2, 928 bodies had been recovered, 3, 408 had been hurt, and 139 were still missing as of Sunday ( March 30 ). If these statistics are understated to minimize socially the effect of Friday’s temblor, which reached 7.7 on the Richter scale, is anyone’s guess.

The program reportedly continued its flying bombardments and shellings over the weekend, including an artillery strike on a doctor in Ponnagyun in an area controlled by Arakan Army rebels close to Sittwe, in spite of the announced ceasefire and the junta’s plea for foreign aid and assistance, which are now beginning to flow in from different nations.

However, those attacks in the middle of a previously unheard catastrophe should be seen as a sign of weakness rather than power. The junta’s risks have been further exposed previously when civil unrest is compounded by natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, cyclones, and landslides.

Natural disasters have in fact played significant roles in shaping social moves, especially in brittle state with illegal or tumultuous governance structures. &nbsp,

Economic catastrophes have frequently exacerbated the structural flaws of different military regimes in Myanmar, making them even more vulnerable to insurgencies, global scrutiny, and domestic unrest.

And when the post-quake scenery emerges, rebels had immediately renounce their partial ceasefire in the name of an unmatched chance to take down a weak program with the principal city of Yangon in their sights and the defense capital Naypyidaw in their sights.

Losing” Heaven’s Authority”

According to Confucian and Buddhist traditions, a leader’s legitimacy is determined by their capacity to exert effective control and guarantee the welfare of their own citizens. &nbsp,

In archaic China, hereditary lords were thought to have lost their authority when they failed to deal with natural disasters, leading to their eventual overthrow. Despite its liberal and nationalist bent, Myanmar’s military cannot escape the country’s greatly superstitious populace. &nbsp,

Natural disasters frequently expose the stupidity of autocratic regimes around the world. That has been particularly the situation in Myanmar. More than 130, 000 people were killed when Cyclone Nargis ravaged the country in 2008. A natural disaster turned into a man-made tragedy due to the then-ruling regime’s refusal to allow international humanitarian aid feared by foreign scrutiny and also a potential US invasion.

The similarities to now are eerily similar. The regime’s ineffective handling of past reduction efforts following floods, floods, and hurricanes does not look good for the victims and disrupted survivors of Friday’s devastating disaster. Yet, today’s Myanmar is much more scattered, with the government’s hold on power much weaker than it was in 2008.

The coup in Myanmar is no exception. Conservative governments thrive on transparency. Through military-owned conglomerates like Myanma Economic Holdings Limited ( MEHL ) and the Myanmar Economic Corporation ( MEC ), the military has dominated large swathes of the economy over the years. &nbsp,

But, the increasing volume of foreign aid to victims of natural disasters raises questions about monitoring and probity. As has previously happened, the distribution of aid money and resources into crooked military officers and their business associates runs the risk of further deteriorating the administration’s already fragile standing.

Authorities in Myanmar like Bertil Lintner and David Steinberg have lengthy argued that the life of different military regimes has depended on their capacity to maintain control of the economy while preventing opposition. &nbsp,

The military must sometimes cooperate with foreign relief organizations or risk alienating the country’s fragile foundations, as natural disasters do as normal disruptors. Since the disaster, the United States, the European Union, China, Russia, India, South Korea, and the UN have all pledged to deliver humanitarian assistance.

Autocratic regimes are anathema to transparency, and the risk of exposure rises as investigation rises. The regime’s authority over crucial sources may decline further if humanitarian aid turns into a social tool that deviates from military channels.

strengthening rebel arms

The political and administrative brain centers of Myanmar, Mandalay and Naypyidaw, have recently experienced severe flooding and the disaster. &nbsp,

The Arakan Army ( AA ), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army ( MNDAA ), and theTa’ang National Liberation Army ( TNLA ), among others, benefit from this structural breakdown.

These organizations have already demonstrated their ability to launch well-planned offensives against Myanmar’s defense, as evidenced by their most recent crushing victories on the battlefield and their traditional seizing of territory that was once under the control of the regime.

Guerrilla war thrives in settings where the freedom and provide lines of standard armies are hampered, according to security expert Anthony Davis. &nbsp,

Important roads will be forced by the military to rely on air energy, but with minimal gas supplies and mounting administrative problems, air supremacy may not be viable. However, the resistance forces, deeply embedded in local populations and flexible to hard terrain, have undoubtedly gained a new foothold in numerous quake-hit areas.

When state troops are cut off from their source ranges, their ability to project power usually suffers catastrophic consequences, as evidenced by the story of uprisings in Southeast Asia. The Ho Chi Minh Trail served as a crucial artery for the Vietnam War, enabling them to outmaneuver and ultimately outlive a far superior military force. &nbsp,

Similar to Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, which have recently experienced natural disasters to strengthen their strategic position.

illusion of stability

Even when there are cracks within, autocratic regimes frequently maintain a façade of stability. Through military parades, diplomatic missions, and economic partnerships with nations like China and Russia, Myanmar’s junta has attempted to create an image of control.

However, the influx of foreign humanitarian aid, which is frequently mediated through independent organizations, perpetuates this illusion. Humanitarian missions adhere to neutrality principles, but their presence always raises international scrutiny.

According to scholars like Mary Callahan, the influx of foreign aid workers and organizations frequently results in greater external exposure of human rights violations. &nbsp,

A new infusion of humanitarian aid and the presence of foreign aid workers in Myanmar could lead to more documented cases of military abuses, from forced labor to war crimes.

Additionally, aid that bypasses military channels and travels to affected populations through neighborhood organizations, many of which have ties to or sympathize with the armed resistance, may also serve to undermine the junta’s authority and standing on the ground.

Additionally, external actors like the United Nations and the European Union may play a more direct role in providing assistance as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) is increasingly divided over how to address the Myanmar crisis. ( Despite the possibility of some US aid, the closure of USAID will lessen America’s influence. )

The military will struggle to maintain its control over crucial resources if non-state actors are tasked with distributing foreign aid, further reducing its influence over many already marginalized local populations.

The junta of Myanmar is becoming more and more dependent on the recurrent crises of civil war and the earthquake disaster that occurred on Friday. Min Aung Hlaing, the regime’s leader, struggles with maintaining control, and his previous inability to effectively and fairly respond to disasters may be detrimental to Myanmar’s post-quake response.

The military’s ability to control important resources will decrease as foreign aid enters the nation, exposing the regime’s severe structural deficiencies. A perfect storm could result from corruption, poverty, and infrastructural destruction, accelerating the junta’s decline and potential collapse. &nbsp,

The junta’s potential fall is still uncertain, but the picture is this: Myanmar’s military dictatorship is failing to deliver on its promises amid widespread desperation and suffering, and its armed and unarmed adversaries are becoming stronger day by day.

Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is a senior research fellow at the University of Malaya’s Asia-Europe Institute and professor of ASEAN studies at the Islamic International University Malaysia ( IIUM).

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