How countries prepare for population growth and decline

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India overtook China as the most populous nation in the world at the beginning of this year, with China having 850, 000 fewer individuals by the end of 2022, marking the nation’s earliest population decline since the famine that struck from 1959 to 1961.

Given China’s current population of 1.4 billion, this reduction may seem respectable, but it is expected to continue. According to UN projections, China may have fewer than 800 million people living there by the year 2100.

Communities change as a result of emigration, immigration, deaths, and birth. China’s past one-child plan, which was in effect from 1980 to 2015, slowed its birth rate as a result of gender inequality. The Chinese authorities is currently working to increase delivery charges, including by outlawing pregnancy.

According to the 18th-century The & nbsp Malthusian population growth model, populations grow exponentially and outpace resource availability until unavoidable obstacles like famine, disease, conflict, or other problems cause it to decline.

These worries were prevalent in the early 1960s, during the high global population growth rates of & nbsp. However, population growth has drastically slowed globally, and healthy decline is currently underway in China and many other nations.

According to current population trends, a 2020 study published in the Lancet medical journal & nbsp found that more than 20 nations are on track to halve their populations by 2100. While the Center of Expertise on Population and Migration( CEPAM ) predicts the global population will peak at 9.8 billion around & nbsp, 2070 to 2080, the Pew Research think-tank predicted that 90 countries‘ populations would decline by 2100.

Governments and economics everywhere are plagued by the worry of an aging and shrinking population. A reduced labor force will be put under strain by increased payment to the pension and social security systems, while younger communities may also add more to financial growth and innovation. Countries may also see a decline in their influence on the world, no the least of which is the smaller community that is available for military service.

The total fertility rate ( TFR ), which measures the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, is the most prevalent of the metrics that measure fertility and birth rates. However, it has proven difficult to achieve replacement-level fertility rates, which are usually 2.1 children and nbsp per female.

The decline in global fertility rates may be attributed to societal and cultural changes, family planning initiatives, expanded access to contraceptives, improved child mortality rates, increased cost of child rearing, urbanization, postponed marriages and pregnancy due to educational and career pursuits, and social welfare systems that lessen reliance on parental support.

Asia’s north

A prime example is Japan, whose inhabitants peaked in 2008 at 128 million and has since decreased to less than 123 million. By the end of the century, it is expected to have a population of 72 million, with its decline being supported by low fertility rates, an aging population( almost andnbsp, 30 % of people are 65 or older ), and limited immigration. Changes to immigration laws, government-sponsored speed dating, and other measures are being taken to decrease this decline.

Surprisingly, despite reaching a record low & nbsp in 2022, Japan’s TFR is now higher than those of China and South Korea. More than US$ 200 billion has been invested by South Korea since 2006 in the creation of common nursery facilities, free gardens, discounted care, and other programs to increase its TFR. & nbsp, However, South Korea’s TFR continues to be the lowest in the world at 0.78.

Earlier in the 21st century, South Korea’s state also implemented immigration reforms, all the while leading the world in technology with 1, 000 robots per 10,000 employees, more than twice the price of second-ranked Japan.

Europe

In Europe, efforts to increase population have been ongoing for a long time. For instance, in 1966, Romania & nbsp made abortion illegal and outlawed contraception, with the exception of certain medical conditions. As a result, there were more improper abortions, and in the 1980s Romania had the highest level of maternal mortality in all of Europe.

Romania’s TFR stabilized at 2.3 % by the late 1980s, but it collapsed in the 1990s along with immigration and nbsp, a community migration that has been ongoing since Romania joined the European Union in 2007.

Similar Birthrate declines and emigration have occurred in different Eastern European countries andnbsp. Western European nations, on the other hand, have only been able to grow marginally since 2000, primarily as a result of emigration. However, populations have been declining in nations like Italy, which has prompted government efforts to sell homes to immigrants for as little as€ 1 in an effort to repopulate small towns.

a country in the U.S.

In comparison to the majority of European nations, the US has a lower average age and nbsp. In the 2000s, TFR prices also increased. However, this decreased after the 2008 crisis and has never fully recovered.

And in contrast to Western nations, living expectancy continued to decline following the Covid-19 pandemic. These problems have been alleviated by Immigration & nbsp, but the US population growth rate has significantly slowed as a result of political unrest in Europe.

The US and nbsp promote family-planning initiatives internationally even though there is no official plan to increase birth rates.

Since 1984, the Mexico City Policy, which mandated that foreign non-governmental organizations ( NGOs ) not” perform or actively promote abortion as a method of family planning” in order to receive US government funding for family-planning initiatives, has oscillated between the Republican and Democratic administrations.

Russia

Following the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia’s TFR experienced a sharp drop that peaked at 1.16 in 1999 and led to people decline. Authorities efforts, however, saw it rise to 1.8 in 2014 before falling once more.

The Kremlin announced increased bills for kids of at least two youngsters as well as the desired TFR of 1.7 in 2020. Russia has even relied on immigration to further stabilize its people.

Iran

Iran’s policies regarding birth rates have changed over the past several years. Iran & nbsp implemented fertility controls in the 1950s, but they were eliminated following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But, they were reintroduced in the late 1980s to ease economic force.

Iran’s TFR, once regarded as a” success story,” decreased more quickly than expected to 1.6 in 2012. The government started limiting exposure to birth control, abortion, and vasectomies in an effort to increase the delivery rate that time.

Asia South

India currently holds the title of most popular nation in the world, but its TFR is currently below replacement levels. Despite this, its people will keep expanding thanks to a sizable, young population— a demographic trait that is becoming more prevalent throughout the Global South.

While it is ultimately anticipated that India’s population will start to decline by the 2060s, the country is currently managing its young population through initiatives andnbsp, such as fostering employment opportunities abroad.

Beyond untapped financial possible, there are risks associated with not using a sizable working population and nbsp. Big young populations can cause major social and political upheaval in the absence of financial prospects. Pakistan is attempting to slow down its population growth in order to prevent aggravating pressures on its resources, system, educational system, and healthcare systems.

home organizing

Pakistan’s worries resemble those of a large portion of Africa. The top 20 nations with the highest TFR & nbsp, excluding Afghanistan, are all located in Africa. Nigeria’s population is expected to increase from 213 million to 550 million & nbsp by the year 2100, and some projections show that between 2020 and 2050, half of all births will occur in Africa. However, family planning programs have aided slower progress across the globe in recent years.

In contrast, the experience of nations where fertility-supporting campaigns have had some success( such as & nbsp, Germany, and ThenBsP, Czech Republic and Hungary ) suggests that direct financial incentives, tax breaks, affordable / free childcare facilities, generous maternity / paternity leave, housing assistance, as well as more adaptable approaches to work-life balance, are effective at halting decline.

In the past, gender equality has frequently been cited as a challenge to higher delivery costs, but this doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. For instance, in 1980, highly educated women in the US and nbsp had the lowest fertility level; however, this was untrue in 2019.

Also, by 2005, Mongolia’s TFR had decreased from 7.3 children per woman in 1974 to under two. & nbsp, But by 2019, Mongolian birth rates had risen to about three children per woman, despite the fact that women in Mongolia were becoming more educated, more represented in the population, in traditionally male-dominated fields, and had better access to rural maternal health services.

However, the recent population boom & nbsp in Mongolia has led to problems like housing shortages, pollution, school crowding, and other problems, necessitating the development of flexible strategies for population stabilization and growth.

Different parts of the world will need different measures to deal with fluctuating population numbers this century, with a median age of 44.4 years & nbsp in Europe and one of about 19 in Africa.

China is not the only nation that believes that it will age before becoming wealthy, and that such nations will create their own strategies to deal with aging cultures. Priority should be given to developing long-term green approaches to people management that avoid force but also offer assistance for those raising children.

Asia Times received this article from & nbsp, Globetrotter, who also produced it.

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Slums hidden as India puts on its best face for G20

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A new look of Gandhi Darshan where new installations along with Sculptures are placed ahead of G20 Summit at Rajghat on September 1, 2023 in New Delhi, India.shabby pictures
Zoya Mateen
Delhi-based BBC News

You will come across billboards with Bollywood stars endorsing several products on any given time as you stroll down an American road.

However, over the past year, G20 summit banners have appeared everywhere in the nation. They have been displayed on sizable LED displays and are taped to power poles and tucked behind uk-tuks.

The posters prominently feature India’s official G20 logo, which is compared to the Bharatiya Janata Party( BJP ) symbol and features a globe encircled by blooming lotuses. They are accompanied by images of Prime Minister Modi, Narendra.

The government wants to convey that India has entered the global level.

The nation has hosted 200 pre-summit meetings with yoga, cultural performances, and specially curated menus in more than 50 cities, with a reported budget for hosting the G20 exceeding$ 100 million(£ 78 million ).

On American news channels, there has been perplexing policy of events for months in an effort to entice even those who are typically blind to the subtleties of foreign policy.

Now that the principal summit is only two days away, Delhi has been prepared for what is regarded as the most high-profile occasion to be held in India in recent memory.

The American flag, rose pots, and sculptured fountains have all been erected throughout the city. The mountain logo has been placed on dozens of historic sites, and people are swarming to take selfies. Famous flowers in the city have undergone a makeover, their leaf has been freshly pruned, and flags of participating countries have been flown.

However, there is another aspect to the decoration campaign. Some neighborhoods have temporary fabric walls built in front of them to block their view, and in some cases, occupants have been moved. It’s unclear where the gypsies have been relocated after being evicted from the center of the city.

Traffic moves past a G20 logo installed in front of the main venue of the summit in New Delhi, India, August 25, 2023.

Reuters

In advance of the event, the state has declared three days of vacation for the majority of schools and offices, closed important bridges, and deployed thousands of security personnel. Numerous railways and flights have been canceled.

Never before has India hosted so some world leaders simultaneously.

The G20 is the most crucial platform to reach India’s goal of bridging the gap between international policy and local government. Former American ambassador Jitendra Nath Misra claims that the government is aware of this.

However, despite the carnival-like atmosphere, Delhi will still face the difficult task of preventing problems from derailing its goals, such as the Ukraine war, which tore the group apart at the G20 summit in Bali next year.

” India did hope that agreeable issues rather than controversial people like Ukraine will be the focus.” Although it hasn’t been able to do that thus much, Mr. Misra predicts that it will do so in the future.

India has stated that since taking office as president of the G20, it wants to prioritize issues that have a overwhelmingly negative impact on developing countries, such as climate change, rising debt, digital transformation, inflation, and food and energy security.

Students give final touches to paintings of US President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Modi, Narendra and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at an art school in Mumbai on September 5, 2023, ahead of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi.

shabby pictures

According to Happymon Jacob, a professor of foreign policy at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, the conference will take place as the” Global South” has managed to establish itself as an important player in the international order and Western nations have realized that” their exclusive venues may alone solve the problems of the world.”

Many nations then question the value of a website dominated by the West like the G20, which they assert is focused on an outmoded international distribution of power, in light of rising inequality, great food and fuel prices, and climate change.

Security has been beefed up across Delhi and armed forces have conducted many drills

shabby pictures

This, according to Mr. Jacob, was most obvious during the crisis, when India assisted nations in Africa, South Asia, and also China,” while the European countries were just looking after themselves.”

In the future, there must be” a converging point” between the two sides of the globe, and India hopes to provide that at the summit.

” We are with you and we are willing to result from the front,” the communication was sent to the local populace and the Global South. You never afford to ignore the worries coming from this region of the world under India’s command, Mr. Jacob continues, adding to the global community.

For example, Mr. Misra claims that India’s willingness to support developing nations is reflected by the plan to include the African Union in the G20.

India believes it has the power and resources to accomplish this because it is one of the world’s most prosperous financial regions.

The Delhi state, however, will find it difficult to try to bridge the gap between developed and developing nations because of its precarious geopolitical location.

Given how much money it has spent promoting a G20 summit under Mr. Modi’s authority, it will also be under pressure to produce results internally. He will want to demonstrate his ability to strengthen India’s position in the global community, particularly during the months leading up to the general vote the following year.

Bharat Mandapam - a newly built venue - will host the summit in Delhi

shabby pictures

Usually, international policy hasn’t had much of an impact on Indian democratic elections unless it’s about the immediate region, like Pakistan or China, or the US in recent years.

But under Mr. Modi, that is changing because both he and Indians are idealistic and concerned with their standing in the world.

” He has established himself as a leading international diplomat. That image would be enhanced by a significant and effective performance at the G20, according to Mr. Jacob.

Even if Ukraine disrupts the mountain, according to Mr. Misra, people will” look at the carnival, the great show” and believe it has improved the nation’s standing on the international stage.

However, Mr. Modi has a lot of job to do at home, including creating employment for millions of people, for instance.

Then there are issues with individual rights. Since Mr. Modi took office in 2014, according to opposition events and protesters, there has been an increase in hate crimes against Muslims and other people. However, his government refutes these claims, claiming that all Indians have been covered by its guidelines.

And during the conference, Mr. Modi wants to convey that message to both domestic and international audiences.

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The West and the ‘double standards’ smear

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When the West asserts to support an international rules-based attempt or any other type of moral or social values, Russia and China seize every opportunity to criticise it of” double requirements” or hypocrisy.

Smaller and middle-class nations in Asia, Africa, or Latin America frequently gladly accept this accusation because they don’t want to be perceived as belonging to the American, if not worse, camp and they dislike hearing lectures from the West about what they should do.

This strategy can work, at least temporarily, especially for the Russians and Chinese as well as for those members of what is misleadingly referred to as” the Global South” who understandably want to kick back against histories of colonialism. It can also work as a way to draw attention away from their own transgressions. However, in both scenarios, this line of thinking actually serves as a complement to the West because it highlights its inherent allure.

The” twice standards” smear is significant because it emphasizes that the West does have specifications and stands for certain principles, despite the fact that it has a far from ideal track record. China and Russia don’t, and both countries have a terrible track history in terms of standards and values.

These two nuclear-armed power issued a joint statement on February 4 and nbsp, 2022, which lectured the world that it was” going through momentous adjustments” and denounced” some players” who” continue to advocate unilateral approaches to addressing global issues and resort to force ,” as well as” interfere in the internal affairs of another states.”

All was aware that the US and its allies in Europe and Asia were meant by” some players” like Russia and China.

However, some political figures or commentators in Asia, Africa, or Latin America bothered to point out that both Russia and China had only demonstrated their fools when Russia attempted the violent invasion of its neighbour Ukraine, a move that was the best” punitive approach” and” resort to force.”

The reason is that everyone is aware that Russia or China’s even requirements are those that serve their unique national interests or the objectives of their autocratic rulers. To use a sports expression, hypocrisy and other blatant inconsistencies are just the norm.

Fact of American dishonesty

Even when speaking to their own peoples, American nations have a history of being dishonest. While together telling itself it stood for democratic values, including politics, Britain established a global kingdom based on conquering and racial discrimination.

The United States has asserted” to hold these truths to be self – evident, that all men are created equal” since its Declaration of Independence from Britain in 1776, while simultaneously practicing bondage, massacring indigenous peoples, and denying black Americans similar civil right up until the 1960s( or, some may say, up to the present ).

However, the desire to better oneself and achieve higher norms has long been the central tenet of the West.

The United Nations Charter of 1945 marked the beginning of a procedure that the current West led to establish international norms, institutions, and rules that acknowledged the fact that some countries, particularly the great power, had committed dangerous sins during the first half of the 20th century.

That approach aimed to try to compel nations to act in accordance with higher and more beneficial standards than in the past. So, the UN Charter was not a claim to superiority but rather an admission or approval of its flaws.

However, it is always alluring and necessary to hold the West accountable.

For instance, in 2020 Kishore Mahbubani, a well-known public academic and former Singaporean ambassador to the UN, wrote an essay titled” The Hypocrisy of the West” denouncing America’s use of torture in the wake of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and claiming that this inconsistency in previous moral and legal positions was actively encouraging others to use torture as well as undermining American credibility.

In that article, which is part of Mahbubani’s now-well-read series, The Asian 21st Century, he asserted that” when the US started torturing people, it was thus declaring ,”” Thou shalt torture people.” This” double standards” criticism is ineffective because it is a blatant misrepresentation of the nature of what he refers to as” Western moral reasoning.”

the importance of variety

Since the emergence of German philosophy in the so-called Enlightenment of the 17th and 18th centuries, the core of American moral reasoning has been one of discussion, experimentation, and an admission of uncertainty. The previously” brutally ironclad” argument based on religion and the purported divine right of kings was replaced by this liberal acceptance of doubt and variety.

The West today is characterized by a great deal of variety and experiment, including in regards to ethics and human rights, in the nations of Europe, North America, and Asia.

The US and Japan are criticized by Europeans for using the death sentence. Japan lags behind the majority of other countries in terms of gender equality, particularly when it comes to equal rights for queer people and others. We all criticize one another’s immigration policies, fairness networks, and even governments.

It would be a mistake for any American nation to center its foreign policy on morality lectures, precisely because of that variety and discussion. Additionally, it is wise for any European interventions in other nations’ affairs, such as those made in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya over the past 20 years, to be carried out with broad international support and specific goals based on UN Charter principles and procedures.

Unilateralism, as has occasionally been used by the United States, albeit typically( as in Iraq ) supplemented by a small number of colleagues, clouds these guidelines and produces worse results.

Following a military coup, ECOWAS ( Economic Community of West African States ) nations are currently considering armed action in their representative condition of Niger.

In the end, the issue that South, Southeast, and African nations are facing as a result of China’s bullying activities in the South China Sea and Russian invasion of Ukraine remains one that they can eventually depend on to advance norms and standards that are advantageous to all.

It is better to trust those nations that often sin than those that do not actually understand the concept of crime( or clearly lie about it when they do ), the more Russia and China accuse the West of having double standards.

In fact, it might be wiser to divide the world into those who understand the concept of criteria and those that blatantly don’t, as American leaders occasionally have a tendency to do.

The real danger to the West is the possibility that the United States will eventually abandon those standards entirely, not the issue of twin requirements. Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2024— a gentleman who rejects the idea of specifications— may pose a serious threat to the West because it would eliminate the fundamental distinctions between it, Russia, and China.

Much dwell the change, as the French say, andnbsp, vive la différence.

Bill Emmott, who was formerly The Economist’s editor-in-chief, is currently the chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, International Trade Institute, Japan Society for the UK, and the & nbsp.

This article was originally published in English on the Mainichi Shimbun’s Substack blog & nbsp and is being republished with kind permission. It is the slightly edited original of a Japanese-languge Jidai no Kaze( winds of the era ) column that was published on August 27.

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Achieving SDGs amid global disruptions

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The world finds itself at a crossroads, facing a multitude of formidable challenges – repercussions from the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical turmoil across the globe, and climate emergencies. The urgency of addressing these issues cannot be overstated.

Governments worldwide stand at a unique juncture where they must chart a course toward sustainable development, simultaneously fostering economic opportunity, averting an ecological collapse, and global well-being improvement. This convergence of priorities brings into sharp focus the 2030 agenda for sustainable development, encapsulating the collective ambition to create a better world.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) consist of 17 interlinked objectives established by the United Nations in 2015. They provide a universal framework for all countries, irrespective of their development status, to address global challenges, enhance well-being, and protect the environment.

These goals serve as a shared blueprint for international peace and prosperity, guiding efforts toward a more equitable and sustainable world by 2030, while encouraging collaboration among governments, organizations and individuals to combat poverty, inequality, environmental degradation, and other pressing global issues.

However, the journey toward realizing these SDGs has been met with unforeseen turbulence, primarily due to the profound impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The progress achieved thus far has been dealt a setback of historic proportions, with the COV SARS-2 virus reverberating through global health-care systems and international markets, development finance, undoing breakthroughs and stifling advancements that had been painstakingly forged.

Correlation between Covid-19 Infection Rates (2020) and SDG Index Score Growth Rates (2020 compared with 2019) – for High-Income, Upper-Middle Income, Lower-Middle Income and Low-Income Economies. Source: Sustainable Development Report 2020, Sustainable Development Solutions Network

The Covid-19 pandemic emerged as an unprecedented disruptor, severely damaging the SDG agenda. The effects have been felt across the board, with significant declines in global SDG index scores and a concerning increase in poverty, marking the first instance of such regression in decades – an additional 119 million to 124 million people had been pushed into extreme poverty, where South Asia accounts for 60% of this figure.

One of the most pronounced impacts has been on public health and quality of life. The pandemic’s diversion of medical services and the strain on health-care systems have undone decades of progress toward SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being). As a result, achieving improved health and well-being for all is now a more formidable challenge than ever before.

Education suffers

SDG 4 (Quality Education), a fundamental pillar of the sustainable development agenda, has suffered significantly.

In 2020, efforts (which some critics found highly questionable) to slow the spread of the respiratory ailment disrupted the educational journeys of more than 1.52 billion adolescents and children worldwide, erasing nearly two decades of academic progress. The repercussions of this setback will likely be felt for generations.

The economic fallout has been equally severe, with the world grappling with its most significant financial crisis since that of 2007-08. During 2020 the world’s collective GDP fall by 3.4%, indicating a substantial decline in economic output. The second wave of Covid-19 resulted in the loss of about 7.5 million jobs, hitting various sectors hard, and severely threatening SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Ukraine war

Adding to this conundrum, the already complex geopolitical landscape across the globe has only intensified these challenges. The war between Ukraine and Russia is a stark reminder that conflicts in one corner of the world have far-reaching, global ramifications.

It underscores the inextricable link among peace, territorial harmony, and economic prosperity. Armed conflicts have consequences beyond immediate violence; they often result in widespread agricultural abandonment, severely compromising food security.

To be sure, the conflict has disrupted global energy markets, causing fluctuations in energy prices and supply – household energy costs have nearly doubled due to disruptions in the global energy supply chain.

This disruption has been particularly felt in South Asia, where energy markets have been thrown into crisis due to uncertainty in energy supply and increased prices. The collapse of piped gas supplies from Russia has forced countries, including Europe, to seek energy alternatives, often turning to Asia for energy sourcing.

The impact of such conflicts extends beyond the devastation wrought by war itself. Trade wars between significant economies have inadvertently triggered ecological crises, with instances of deforestation and overuse of agricultural land.

The Ukraine-Russia war, for example, has already caused severe damage and loss of life, expanding its reach from population centres to rural areas, and resulting in massive displacement and loss of livelihoods.

According to the UN Security Council, about 14 million people were displaced by the conflict in Europe. This global issue of migration cuts across the entire spectrum of the 2030 Agenda, influencing all 17 SDGs.

Migration-related targets span labor migration, international student mobility, human trafficking, remittances, etc. Recognizing and addressing these complex interlinkages between migration and each SDG is essential for a comprehensive approach to these challenges.

Governments face a pressing need to enhance the accomplishment of the UN SDGs in the face of complex geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. In the short term, immediate actions are crucial.

Strengthening health-care infrastructure is vital to withstand future health crises, while restoring lost incomes, especially among vulnerable groups, is essential. Ensuring resource security is paramount, particularly for food, water and energy.

Looking ahead, governments must adopt systematic, long-term strategies for inter-departmental cooperation to address the interconnected nature of the SDGs. Identifying and tackling immediate challenges such as poverty, food security, and resource supply is vital. Simultaneously, fostering scientific progress and communication is essential in the longer horizon.

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Unmasking Russia’s military soft spots in Asia

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Russia faces four potential military problems in the Indo-Pacific:

  1. Vulnerability of the sea leg of its nuclear triad as part of the Pacific Fleet;
  2. Escalation of tensions around Japan’s territorial claims to the Kuril Islands;
  3. Large-scale regional armed conflicts, primarily on the Korean Peninsula, but also around Taiwan or in the South China Sea, and between India and China;
  4. Shifts in strategic trends between Russia and China, and between Russia and India.

Russia’s regional security outlook revolves around these four problems.

The future deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the region by the United States and its allies (especially Japan and the Republic of Korea) is a direct threat to Russian strategic nuclear forces. These missiles could also lead to a clash in the Kuril Islands due to aggressive actions by Japan.

The US Army and US Marine Corps both have programs nearing completion (LRHW Dark Eagle and SMRF Typhon for the former, and uncrewed Long Range Fires launchers for the latter).

Japan is also actively developing such capabilities (including in the hypersonic domain), and the Republic of Korea has already fielded such weapons, namely the advanced missiles of the Hyunmoo family.

The integration of early warning and space situational awareness systems by the United States, Republic of Korea, and Japan should be considered in the same context. In the long term, this will likely result in the buildup of joint and integrated air and missile defense, as well as counterspace capabilities, including through the development and forward deployment of new land- and sea-based missile defense capabilities by those countries.

Meanwhile, the Australia-United Kingdom-United States trilateral partnership (dubbed AUKUS) – which will equip the Australian Defense Force with nuclear-powered submarines and long-range precision weapons and strengthen Australian anti-submarine warfare capabilities – will further increase threats to both the submarine and surface forces of the Russian Pacific Fleet.

Artist rendering of possible design for SSN-AUKUS submarines. Image: Wikimedia Commons

Australian submarines will free up US Navy forces and assets to counter the Russian Navy and, possibly, patrol in the Northern Pacific themselves. The fielding of increasingly capable anti-submarine warfare patrol aircraft also contributes to increasing vulnerabilities for Russia.

None of these developments has been explicitly labeled “anti-Russian,” but capability matters more than policy.

Adversary pressure in the immediate vicinity of the Russian sea, air and land borders in the Indo-Pacific is also maintained by freedom-of-navigation operations, flights of bomber aircraft (within the so-called Dynamic Force Employment doctrine) and reconnaissance flights by the United States and its allies – including during exercises and tests of Russian strategic nuclear forces.

The United States’ and allies’ interests in establishing and enforcing so-called “air defense identification zones” – a fictional concept that often leads to media headlines about “airspace violations” – create additional pressure.

The “materialization” of US extended nuclear deterrence, expressed not only in a declarative “nuclear umbrella” for allies, but also in the possible forward deployment of nuclear warheads, adds another dimension to these problems.

Moreover, there seem to be changes to the way extended deterrence operates. US nuclear capabilities protect “US allies and partners,” but the latter’s conventional forces are developing a role in facilitating and supporting US missions involving nuclear weapons.

To put it more bluntly: enhanced and expanded allied non-nuclear capabilities now enable US nuclear missions, aligning with the new US concept of integrated deterrence.

As for possible armed conflicts in the region, be it in the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or South Asia, each would have a direct effect on Russia as a Pacific country.

The consequences of such conflicts would lead to dramatic changes in supply chains (which already face immense pressure due to the breakdown of relations between Russia and “the West”), the shake-up of the regional markets (which are increasingly important for Russian exports and imports) and migration waves.

The result would have direct effects on the Russian economy. The effects would be even greater because of the inevitable involvement of China, Russia’s strategic partner.

So far, Russia has managed to maintain relatively stable and even fruitful relations with both China and India. Its relationship with Japan suffers, however, and the relationship with the Republic of Korea will probably follow suit – due both to Seoul’s ever-growing involvement in providing military industrial support to Western countries and to Moscow’s possible cooperation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

To be sure, the future of Russia-China and Russia-India relations will depend not only on Moscow, but also on Beijing and New Delhi. Given increasing strategic tensions – augmented by the United States’ interest in rallying India to the US side against China as well as in limiting Russia-India cooperation – established strategic relations might evolve.

These changes might not lead to direct military conflicts but could well drive Moscow to greatly re-prioritize Russian military development.

Russia’s military security depends squarely on the Russian Far East. The Pacific Fleet has the most advanced SSBNs of the Borei family. New surface ships and submarines with Kalibr cruise missiles are entering service.

Anti-ship and air/missile defense missile batteries are deployed to the Kuril Islands and throughout the region. And even a new heavy bomber regiment might be established. The Russian Navy and Long-Range Aviation also routinely hold joint patrols with their Chinese counterparts.

Chinese troops under a Russian flag in a file photo. Image: RT

Furthermore, the deployment of US-made intermediate-range, ground-launched missiles in the region (which seems inevitable) would mean the so-called “moratorium” on such weapons no longer stands, and Russia will likely deploy similar capabilities as well, with everyone’s security undermined.

But Russia has bigger vulnerabilities, in that it lacks general-purpose naval forces: submarines, surface ships, and aviation. At this point, it is unclear if the Russian defense industry can address this problem in view of the priority it gives to the Western front. Growing military-technical cooperation with China might offer a solution, however.

Still, if Russia wants to remain a relevant military power both in the region and globally, Moscow must do more. Otherwise, even the ability to sustain the regionally deployed elements of its nuclear triad will be questioned – both by adversaries and partners.

Dmitry Stefanovich ([email protected]) is a research fellow at the Center for International Security, IMEMO Russian Academy of Sciences.

This article was first publishled by Pacific Forum. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.

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Breaking Pakistan’s dirty IMF habit

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Pakistan’s recent US$3 billion Stand-By Arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has provided much-needed financial relief alongside the financial aid and investment from several strategic partners, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and China.

These arrangements could play a significant role in addressing pressing economic crises. While these injections offer temporary fiscal respite, Pakistan faces more complex economic and political challenges. Pakistan is experiencing low economic growth at -0.5%, coupled with 29.6% inflation and 8% unemployment. 

Additionally, the 22% interest rate has severely damaged the business environment without achieving its intended objective of controlling inflation. Pakistan also struggles with low foreign exchange reserves, with the State Bank of Pakistan holding just $8.2 billion. Over $25 billion is needed to manage debt requirements, yet the tax revenue in FY2024 was only $32 billion.

Pakistan remains fragile due to political instability and security issues. Pakistan is heading towards a general election in next three months, potentially exposing a new government to these challenges. There is speculation that the election could be delayed, adding to Pakistan’s political instability that is estimated to cost the economy up to 3% of GDP per year.

Overcoming these structural economic and political issues and breaking the cycle of IMF dependency requires a holistic approach to unleash Pakistan’s growth potential and address the root causes of these challenges through critical reforms.

Pakistan must foster private sector-led growth through deregulation. Removing unnecessary bureaucratic hurdles, streamlining regulatory processes, and easing the burden of compliance will enable businesses to thrive. Regulatory frictions are estimated to cost Pakistan 39% of GDP. 

A business-friendly climate is required to attract domestic and foreign investments, spur innovation, create jobs, and grow the economy. Businesses demand both policy certainty and simplified regulatory requirements, especially regarding documentation such as No Objection Certificates.

Pakistan should also transition from a traditional bricks-and-mortar growth model to a knowledge-based economy to support sustained development. Investing in education, research, and development will nurture a skilled workforce and foster technological advancements. 

Rather than establishing professor-less universities, both the federal and provincial governments should prioritize basic education. Embracing digitalization and emerging technologies will drive productivity, efficiency, and global competitiveness, paving the way for inclusive and sustainable growth.

The government must streamline its footprint, estimated at 67% of the economy, and expedite the privatization of state-owned enterprises to improve economic efficiency and reduce the burden on the national exchequer. 

A leaner and more efficient public sector will free up resources for targeted investments in crucial sectors, while privatization will infuse dynamism and competition in previously monopolized industries, increasing productivity and profitability.

Pakistan must also improve tax compliance and encourage investment by simplifying the tax system, reducing the compliance burden on businesses, and ensuring a level playing field. 

Rather than relying solely on increasing tax rates, the government should focus on adopting a fair and transparent taxation structure and eliminating the distinction between filer and non-filer taxpayers, making filing tax returns compulsory. The tax imposed on cash withdrawals is counterproductive and should be eliminated.

Pakistan should foster stability and growth through a Charter of Prosperity, encompassing the Charter of Power, Charter of Democracy, and Charter of Economy. Continuous political strikes and marches organized by interest groups and political parties have led to significant economic losses. 

Pakistan ranks in the 5th percentile for political stability compared to the 30th percentile for South Asia. A stable political environment is essential to attract investment, allow businesses to grow, and provide space for people to think and contribute to the growth of the economy.

The Charter of Power requires a shared understanding and commitment to follow the rules and work within defined boundaries. It will help streamline power struggles between various stakeholders and power circles. 

The Charter of Democracy will prioritize political stability, institutional reforms, and collaboration among political parties for a unified economic agenda. Meanwhile, the Charter of Economy will outline a cohesive economic vision agreed upon by all stakeholders, emphasizing long-term planning, investment promotion, and export diversification.

Deregulating the economy, embracing the knowledge economy, streamlining the government, simplifying the tax system, and fostering political stability through a Charter of Prosperity could pave the way for lasting prosperity and sustainable development. 

Alongside these reforms, the government should also revisit tax expenditures, ill-devised subsidies, and non-developmental current expenditures. With strategic reforms and collaborative efforts, Pakistan can overcome its economic challenges and independently create a brighter future for its citizens.

Saima Nawaz is Assistant Professor at COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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Taliban finding new ways to stoke regional tensions

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Two years after the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, countries around the world have begun normalizing ties with the Taliban. Central Asian states are no exception.

But amid fears that the Afghan rulers could destabilize the region or create a water crisis, and with China and Russia heavily influencing regional security, Central Asian countries are proceeding cautiously.

Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia, insists that recognition of the Afghan group is off the table. In 2005, the country’s Supreme Court added the Taliban to its list of terrorist organizations. But this designation hasn’t prevented the energy-rich country from strengthening trade cooperation with the “graveyard of empires.” 

Bilateral trade between Afghanistan and Kazakhstan reached US$1 billion in 2022 and Kazakh authorities are reportedly looking to increase this to $3 billion “soon.”

Afghanistan buys about 60% of its imported flour from Kazakh producers; earlier this month, the two sides struck $200 million in new commercial deals, mainly commitments by Kazakhstan to supply Afghanistan with even more of the essential food.

Astana also views Afghanistan as an important transit country, as evidenced by the fact that Kazakhstan recently sent several trucks on a new trade route to Pakistan through Afghanistan.

Neighboring Uzbekistan has similar geo-economic goals. On July 18, representatives from Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan signed a tripartite agreement to connect the countries by rail.

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are looking east to Pakistan as a significant export destination for their goods, a strategy that could help reduce the former Soviet republics’ economic and political dependence on Russia. Afghanistan’s importance as a trade route to South Asia is a key reason why these countries, along with Kyrgyzstan, want to normalize ties with the Taliban. 

But doing business with the fundamentalist group won’t be easy, especially for Uzbekistan. One reason is water.

A colossal canal being built by the Taliban could significantly reduce the flow of a regionally-important river, the Amu Darya. This is of great concern to both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are located downstream.

The Qosh Tepa Canal threatens to create a regional water crisis. Image: Youtube Screengrab.

If the Taliban completes the Qosh Tepa Canal, which is intended to turn Afghanistan’s northern desert into farmland, Uzbek and Turkmen farmers could suffer. There are even fears that the Qosh Tepa could reduce Uzbekistan’s water reserves and cause a crippling drought.

Despite these concerns, Uzbek authorities are unlikely to jeopardize their relations with the Taliban over the project. Policymakers in Tashkent know that if they attempt to prevent the construction of the canal, the Taliban could stop Uzbekistan from using a railway route to Pakistan that enables access to seaports in South Asia. 

Tajikistan’s position may be the most difficult to navigate. Dushanbe considers Taliban-ruled Afghanistan to be a threat to Tajik national security, which is why it supports anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan and abroad.

More importantly, Tajikistan has joined Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in signing a statement that stresses “the priority importance of the rational use of the water resources of the Amu Darya river.” It’s a clear message to the Taliban that Tajikistan doesn’t approve of the group’s plans to build the controversial canal. 

Central Asian states seem to share Washington’s vision of a post-America Afghanistan, where an inclusive, united, sovereign and self-reliant country “respects the rights of its population, including women and girls, and is at peace with itself and its neighbors.”

The US, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan insist that Afghanistan shouldn’t be used as “a base for hosting, financing, or exporting terrorism and violent extremism to other countries.”

Thus, even though US troops are no longer on the ground in Afghanistan, Central Asian countries are acting as Washington’s partners in their approach to the Taliban government. 

Pro-Kremlin media in the region are trying to upset this balance. Mars Sariev, a Kyrgyz political scientist, told a Russia-language newspaper published in Kyrgyzstan that the US will eventually use the Taliban to destabilize Central Asia and weaken Russian and Chinese positions in the strategically important region. 

Taliban representatives meet with Chinese officials in Tianjin. In the center are Taliban co-founder Mullah Baladar and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Photo: Chinese Foreign Ministry

“In Afghanistan, all these radical movements are controlled by Western structures, as well as the Taliban,” Sariev said earlier this month. “Therefore, the threat in northern Afghanistan against our republics is now growing.”

One thing is certain: As the newest iteration of the Taliban government turns two, Central Asian states will continue treading carefully, coordinating their Afghan policy not only with the US, but also with Russia and China.

Washington was able to wash its hands of the troubled country in August 2021. Afghanistan’s neighbors don’t have that luxury.

Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, with special attention on energy and pipeline politics. Twitter: @nikola_mikovic

Republished with the kind permission of Syndication Bureau.

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New plan to attract Muslim visitors

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PUBLISHED : 19 Aug 2023 at 04:57

New plan to attract Muslim visitors
People emerge from the arrival hall at Suvarnabhumi airport after disembarking from a Saudi Arabian Airlines flight from Jeddah via Riyadh on Feb 28, 2022. It was the first direct commercial flight from Saudi Arabia in 32 years, following the recent normalisation of diplomatic ties. (Photo: Varuth Hirunyatheb)

Thailand is aiming to become a top destination for Muslim tourists from other countries by 2027, according to deputy government spokeswoman Rachada Dhnadirek.

She said on Friday that Muslim tourists are one of the biggest targets for the country’s tourism sector due to their growing numbers and high purchasing power.

More than 3 million Muslim tourists visited the country last year, a massive jump when compared with 875,043 in 2017, she said, citing Department of Tourism (DoT) data, adding on average, a Muslim visitor stays for 13 days and spends about 6,000 baht per day.

To further promote the kingdom among Muslim tourists, the DoT has announced a five-year plan (2023–2027) to focus on improving the service quality of tourism operators to meet international standards, she said.

This includes introducing halal goods, services and activities that meet the needs of Muslim tourists and implementing technology to facilitate travellers, she said.

The DoT is working closely with related sectors to identify how to support Muslim visitors and promote Thailand as a Muslim-friendly tourist destination, she said.

This strategic plan is expected to help the country become one of the top destinations for Muslim tourists in the next five years, Ms Rachada said.

“The government sees the importance of opening for the Muslim tourism market,” she said. “We hope the policy can be carried on by the new government.”

According to the Mastercard-Crescentrating Global Muslim Travel Index 2023, Indonesia and Malaysia are tied for the number one spot, followed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.

Meanwhile, Thailand has welcomed more than 16.472 million international tourists since Jan 1, bringing 689 billion baht for the country, according to the Tourism and Sports Ministry’s Economics Tourism and Sports Division.

The top five groups are from Malaysia (2,581,251), China (2,027,823), South Korea (982,328), India (947,431) and Russia (884,839), it said.

From Aug 7–13, the country welcomed 577,136 foreign tourists, with the number of Japanese and Indian tourists increasing by 84.36% and 22.54% from last week, respectively, it said.

For this week, the ministry estimates that the country will welcome about 570,000 international tourists with the majority of them from East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.

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Pakistan: More than 100 arrested after churches burned

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People gather at a church building vandalized by protesters in Jaranwala, Pakistan August 16, 2023Reuters
By Carrie Davies & Derek Cai
in Islamabad and Singapore

More than 100 people have been arrested in an east Pakistan city after thousands of Muslims burned churches and vandalised homes.

The violence in Jaranwala was sparked by claims that two Christian men had torn pages from the Quran.

The historic Salvation Army Church was still smouldering on Thursday, one day after the riot.

The ruins have been surrounded with barbed wire as the situation remains tense.

Public gatherings have also been restricted for seven days in Faisalabad district, which includes Jaranwala.

The two men accused of damaging the Quran, Islam’s holy book, have not been arrested though they have been charged with blasphemy, which is punishable by death in Pakistan.

Even though Pakistan has yet to sentence anyone to death for blasphemy, a mere accusation can result in widespread riots, causing lynchings and killings.

Two years ago, a Sri Lankan man accused of blasphemy was killed by an enraged mob and had his body set on fire. In 2009, a mob burned down about 60 homes and killed six people in the Gorja district in Punjab, after accusing them of insulting Islam.

Pakistan inherited the blasphemy law from the British in the 19th century. In the 1980s, Islamabad introduced stiffer penalties, including the death sentence for insulting Islam.

Around 96% of Pakistan’s population is Muslim. Other countries, including Iran, Brunei, and Mauritania also impose capital punishment for insulting religion.

Religion-fuelled violence in Pakistan has risen since the country made blasphemy punishable by death, as it “bolsters violent behaviour,” Iftekharul Bashar, a researcher at the think-tank RSIS who focuses on political and religious violence in South Asia, told the BBC.

“The Pakistani society has experienced increased fragmentation, driven by widening economic disparities, leading to an upsurge in violence directed towards minority religious groups,” Mr Bashar said.

“The emergence of extremist and vigilante factions within Pakistan, some of which exhibit significant financial backing, also contributed to this trouble trend,” he added.

A local official told BBC Urdu that authorities received calls about protests and fires early Wednesday morning after reports of the two men allegedly desecrating the Quran, the holy book of Islam, circulated on social media.

Authorities said torn pages of the the sacred text with blasphemous content allegedly scribbled on them in red marker ink, were found near a Christian community.

The reports circulated around the city and on social media, sparking outrage among the Muslim community. The violence that ensued saw mobs attacking and looting private homes belonging to Christians.

Police told the BBC that the Christian’s possessions were pulled into the streets and set on fire.

Yassir Bhatti, a 31-year-old Christian, was one of those to flee their homes.

“They broke the windows, doors and took out fridges, sofas, chairs and other household items to pile them up in front of the Church to be burnt,” he told AFP news agency.

“They also burnt and desecrated Bibles, they were ruthless.”

Videos on social media show protesters destroying Christian buildings while police appear to watch on.

Amir Mir, the information minister for Punjab province, condemned the alleged blasphemy and said in a statement that thousands of police had been sent to the area, with dozens of people detained.

The mob was mostly made up of people from an Islamist political party called Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a government source told Reuters. The TLP has denied any involvement.

Caretaker PM Anwar ul-Haq Kakar called for swift action against those responsible for the violence.

Pakistani bishop Azad Marshall, in the neighbouring city of Lahore, said the Christian community was “deeply pained and distressed” by the events.

“We cry out for justice and action from law enforcement and those who dispense justice, and the safety of all citizens to intervene immediately and assure us that our lives are valuable in our own homeland,” he posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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