The rectangular balance of power between China, India, and the US may change after two elections this time.
After the American elections, which are scheduled for April 19 to June 1, Prime Minister Narenda Modi is expected to be reelected. Donald Trump, who is vying for re-election as US senator in November, and Modi have a close connection.
During his first term as president, Modi established a close connection with Trump. Both men have powerful political credentials, own larger- than- living personas and concentrate on immigration policies. If Trump and Modi are elected, India-US relationships are most likely to be stronger than ever.
However, the China- US connection is not doing well. Trump’s taxes, which remained in place throughout Biden’s president, may be increased if Trump re-enters the White House. Trump stated in an interview with Fox News ‘ Sunday Morning Futures that tariffs on Chinese products may rise to 60 % if he is re-elected.
But that’s not all. Trump wants to increase US dependence on the Chinese business by doing so.
Additionally, it is likely that Trump will do the same under his second administration because he prohibited US companies from funding Chinese companies that may compromise US stability during his first presidency.
China needs foreign aid to strengthen its ailing business and boost exports as the country’s children poverty rate is still high at 14.9 % and the economy’s is weakening. However for Beijing, Trump’s plan would not only harm China’s economic treatment, but US restrictions on American tech companies from investing in China may also harm Beijing’s efforts to become a world leader in synthetic knowledge by 2030.
Fall of India
The high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods offer enormous trading options for India, despite Trump’s intentions to impose a baseline tax of 10 % on all imports. US businesses will look to expand their supply chains by sourcing products from abroad as the US economy becomes more disconnected from the Chinese market.
India is poised to become China’s solution for three factors:
Given how Beijing’s influence in southern Asia has increased as a result of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s effort to build a global business networking, advancing ties with the US would be well received by Delhi.
The US has always been interested in supporting India as a” counter to China,” and it works with the security organization the Quad, which has four people: the US, India, Japan, and Australia, to halt China’s effect.
The price issue
Trump imposed a 25 % tariff on Chinese imports in January 2018, starting an unprecedented trade war with China. Beijing retaliated by imposing its personal taxes on US products, and Sino-US relationships deteriorated culminating in the 2019 recalls of Chinese giant panda from the San Diego zoo in California ( a highly symbolic sign by the Chinese government ).
The taxes, which duty Chinese imports, were supposed to protect American interests. However, US consumers and businesses have had to spend more for items because the US economy depends heavily on Chinese exports. By 2019, Trump’s taxes cost the US an estimated 300, 000 tasks. The US business shrank, and in 2020 the taxes cost the US a staggering US$ 316 billion.
Beijing is worried about a second Trump presidency. Since 2018, China has sought to minimize the effects of Trump’s trade conflict by adopting a plan of self- reliance. This resulted in a decrease in China’s imports of production inputs into the high tech, electric, and automotive sectors.
However, China’s ability to minimize its dependence on the international community is highly limited. According to experts, the Chinese leadership is aware of this, and Xi’s main motivation for attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in San Francisco was to rekindle ties with the West and entice much-needed foreign investment.
The Taiwan problem
The phrase” The Supreme Art of War is subdue the enemy without fighting” was a well-known line from the Chinese classic Sun Tzu’s Art of War in 2012. But if he had read the rest of Sun Tzu’s work, he would be aware of the following:” When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Avoid pressing a desperate opponent too hard.
Trump should realize that Washington’s increased aggression towards China may only undermine Taiwan’s security. Beijing’s desire to unite with Taiwan was largely a nationalistic exercise meant to legitimize the “one China policy.” Given the island state’s advancement in semiconductor technology and China’s current economic problems, the need to acquire Taiwan has transcended historical fervor to economic desire.
Artificial intelligence is important because it will confer major economic, technological, and military benefits to China. China needs to acquire semiconductor chips if it wants to be the world’s AI leader by 2030. China may forcefully occupy Taiwan if it ca n’t access that through trade.
Chee Meng Tan is a visiting assistant professor of business economics at the University of Nottingham in Malaysia.
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