China better built for a trade war – and Trump knows it – Asia Times

Donald Trump made a rare agreement this week following months of price threats and aggressive posturing. He claimed that the 145 % tariff on Chinese goods “won’t become that high… it’ll come over significantly.”

No official discussions or breakthroughs are held, just a sudden change in the president’s tone. And this change is powerful.

Trump is accepting a difficult truth in spite of his bluster: China is more functionally insulated, better organized, and ultimately more resilient than the US to a prolonged trade war.

The conceit that tariffs would pressure Beijing to resist is being gradually dissected by economic reality. China has never slowed down. It has shown a determined mix of resilience and flexibility in response to US aggression, offering to discuss but refusing to retaliate.

It is not required to. Beijing has spent decades slowly lowering its risk to American force. Trump’s levies may go in, but they didn’t destabilize China.

China’s social structure, for one, gives it a significant advantage in a drawn-out financial contest. Trade wars are a source of hostility for election cycles, interest parties, and social media winds in Washington. Beijing’s plan is dictated by the top with persistence in terms of strategy. &nbsp,

With no delay or political consequences as a result of this consolidated control, China may absorb financial pain without flinching while implementing specific stimulus, subsidies, and countermeasures. It has a long-term use. Under Trump, the US cannot.

Then there is the deal balance. Last year, China and the US exchanged close to US$ 300 billion deficit. About 15 % of its exports were made by Americans, which seems like leverage for Washington until you realize how much of that business is already being reversed. &nbsp,

China’s manufacturers have moved their creation to Southeast Asia since Trump’s initial string of tariffs on steel, copper, and solar panel in 2018. &nbsp,

Companies in Vietnam and Cambodia now operate under a different symbol and properly share the same source chain. China’s 17 % increase in exports to Vietnam in March is not a coincidence. The US currently has a$ 124 billion trade deficit, which is not good.

Trump may be hesitant to impose a 46 % reciprocal tariff on Asian goods, but even that threat has been quietly stymied. Beijing is aware of the fact that Washington doesn’t need a trade war to break out on several sides.

In addition, China is cultivating solutions while Trump speaks tariffs. New business passageways have been created thanks to its Belt and Road Initiative, which spans Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

It has forged multilateral trade agreements that do not include the US. China’s exports to America are declining, dropping from 21 % of total exports in 2016 to just 13.4 % last year. China’s growth and management of its US coverage are successful.

Compare US dependence to that. Low-value-added goods like soybeans, cloth, and beef are the mainstay of American exports to China. These can all be replaced, and Argentina, Brazil, and Australia is most help. &nbsp,

In the meantime, several Chinese export to the US, including processed minerals, consumer electronics, and technology, are not so simple to swap out. They are firmly rooted in US supply stores. Hiring them with levies hurts US companies, not just Chinese manufacturers.

Then there is the unique world cards. These crucial minerals are necessary for everything from electric cars and smartphones to advanced defense systems, and China accounts for the majority of the world’s production of these crucial minerals. It could have used that leverage in its fullest form, but it has never done so. &nbsp,

International businesses are stung by the risk alone. No US deterrent could meet that kind of corporate skepticism.

What we’re seeing is recognition that Trump has no failure. He waggled the flair of a real estate dealmaker to start this tax war. &nbsp,

He is presently negotiating with a condition that is unafraid of being bullied or conned. The business pain has revolved into US inflation, supply chain issues, and suburban farmers staring at lost Chinese markets while holding pitchforks in hand.

Trump is undoubtedly not giving up. However, the restraint in his language indicates that he is reevaluating and looking for a way to declare victory without further escalation. China is, however, holding its ground. Its plan is simple: don’t inspire, don’t supply, and don’t hold back while watching the drama.

One of the many causes Beijing is in a stronger position is because of that. It has diversified export, reduced US dependence, insulated its business with commercial policy, and remained neutral about rare earths restrictions. &nbsp,

China is built to outlast the US, despite the business dispute continuing. Trump is aware of this despite all his speech. And that’s why Washington, no Beijing, is showing the first indicators of retreat.

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Asian markets mixed as Trump soothes Fed fears

On Thursday ( Apr 24 ), Asian markets were mixed after President Donald Trump declared he had” no intention” to fire the US central bank head and made diplomatic remarks about his trade dispute with China. Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates had sparked fearsContinue Reading

Trump pushing India into high-stakes, high-risk China clash – Asia Times

No president has felt the sting of US President Donald Trump’s tax war as strongly as India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, despite the fact that no other leader has. Caught in a high-stakes political connect, India is grappling with an philosophical problem: balancing its crucial economic ties with China against the beauty of the American business.

The Trump administration imposed a 26 % “reciprocal” tax on American goods on April 2, 2025, putting New Delhi in tense negotiations to gain access to the country’s largest export location, the US.

India’s response has betrayed a shocking respect, as evidenced by the rapid and significant trade work cuts on Harley-Davidson scooters and American-made whiskey liquor amid a large pledge&nbsp to lift down trade barriers. New Delhi has furthermore announced plans to buy more US strength and protection products in a bid to appease Trump.

The Trump administration has used a 90-day relief on the tariffs to pressure India into a more comprehensive National strategy to isolate China financially and carefully. US Vice President JD Vance made a notable four-day visit to Delhi on April 22 as part of this political unpleasant.

Ostensibly a family affair—Vance, with his Indian-origin wife and children, framed the trip as a nod to his Sasural ( “in-laws” ) and his kids ‘” Nana-Nani” ( maternal grandparents ) —the visit’s true purpose is to tighten the screws on India and secure its alignment against Beijing.

Trump uses the rod of tariffs to fudge Modi’s wishes in his second term, replacing the vegetable of American investment moving from China to India in his first.

Ajay Seth, the secretary of economic affairs, claimed this week that the” first order” hit from 26 % tariffs on India could reduce GDP by between 0.2 % and 0.5 %, which he said was” not a significant impact.” However, underscoring the urgency of the situation, New Delhi planned to transport both its chief trade communicator and finance secretary to Washington this week before the terrible Kashmir problems.

India’s plight is rooted in its divided financial fact. To produce ultimate products for trade, especially to the US, its business center, which is frequently just an “assembly line,” relies heavily on Chinese transitional goods, raw materials, funds equipment, technology, and investment.

In 2024-25, China accounted for over 14 % of India’s full international trade, while India’s goods contributed a simple 1.9 % to China’s international trade, highlighting a striking imbalance. India can import Chinese components, arrange them, and trade finished goods to the US now because a 35 % value addition there qualifies as enough for a “rules of origin” certificate.

Nevertheless, this type makes India susceptible to a proportion readjustment. Tilting toward the US challenges Chinese retribution that could drown its production ranges, leaning toward China threatens to renounce US market access.

India’s fundamental problem is this. Beijing may impose a bombardment of punitive measures, both explicit and implicit, that would deteriorate India’s economic trajectory, erode its security, and weaken its regional influence, much like it did in 2020 in a punitive response to the tensions in the Himalayas.

China’s most immediate tool would be business adjustment, exploiting India’s$ 100 billion deal gap in 2024-25. India’s exposure to Chinese and allied markets may be restricted by Beijing’s imposing steep tariffs or non-tariff obstacles, such as stringent quality checks, on American exports like agro products, textiles, and leather goods.

China might restrict exports of important inputs, including smartphone components, pharmaceutical precursors ( 70 % of India’s supply ), and industrial machinery, even more severely. In 2020, when India tightened attention on Chinese opportunities, Beijing retaliated by blocking engineers ‘ and technicians ‘ visits and technology shipments, a methodology it may rise to even more damaging effect immediately.

Such restrictions would stifle India’s tightly bound smartphone, pharmaceutical, and solar energy sectors, which are all closely linked to Chinese supply chains. China could further skew the trade balance, shrinking India’s export revenues, by selectively lowering imports of Indian goods.

With China constituting over a third of India’s foreign trade, these measures could precipitate a severe economic contraction, hobbling India’s industrial ambitions and global market competitiveness.

China has another means of squeezing India with financial leverage. Beijing could stifle trade financing for Indian businesses by tightening payment terms, putting off processing, or restricting credit flow through Chinese banks with$ 3.24 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and significant influence in global finance. After India’s 2020 ban on Chinese apps, Chinese investors curtailed funding to Indian startups, a precedent that could expand to broader sectors.

China might halt investments in recently approved joint ventures like Vivo, Suzhou Inovance, and ZNShine if India’s US alignment is further strained, undermining India’s plans for manufacturing growth and technology transfer.

By putting Indian projects prioritizing them, China may have a more subtle impact on India’s access to multilateral financial institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or the New Development Bank. These financial chokeholds could starve India’s industrial and infrastructure initiatives, limiting its ability to scale up domestic production or diversify away from Chinese inputs.

China might target India’s nascent digital and defense sectors in the technological sphere. Chinese tech companies like Huawei and ZTE have a share of the power behind India’s 5G networks and smart city projects. Beijing could derail India’s digital infrastructure by restricting access or withholding technical support.

In a report from the Harvard Belfer Center for 2021, China’s dominance in semiconductors, 5G, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence was highlighted. India’s newly established semiconductor industry and defense manufacturing, which depend on Chinese inputs for advanced electronics, could be hampered by an embargo on semiconductors or high-tech components.

China could also complicate operations for its tech firms in India, halting solar panels or telecom equipment supplies. Such alterations would halt India’s advancement in technology and weaken its strategic abilities, particularly in defense systems that are crucial for battling regional threats.

An even greater existential risk is posed by China’s stranglehold on critical raw minerals ( CRMs) and rare earth elements ( REEs ). In 2023, India identified 30 critical minerals vital for electric vehicles ( EVs ), semiconductors, defense equipment, and renewable energy, including lithium, cobalt, gallium, titanium, graphite, silicon, bismuth, tellurium, and REEs like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

India is the fifth-largest store in the world with 6.9 million metric tons of REE reserves, but its processing and refining capacity is inestimable. It imports 60 % of its REE imports from China, and over 40 % of its six CRMs, including graphite ( 42.4 % ), lithium ( 82 % ), silicon ( 76 % ), titanium ( 50 % ), and lithium ( 85.6 % ), lithium ( 82 % ), and titanium ( 50.6 % ) ) and lithium ( 42.4 % ) of those products. Beijing controls 87 % of global REE processing, 58 % of lithium refining and 68 % of silicon refining.

India’s plans for 30 % EV penetration by 2030, its semiconductor manufacturing plans, and its defense production, which rely on REEs for missiles, radar, and guidance systems, could be devastated by a Chinese export ban. India’s smartphone sector, which relies heavily on Chinese components, and its pharmaceutical sector, which relies on China for 70 % of its precursors, would experience severe shortages.

While India seeks alternatives through the Mineral Security Partnership and Australian partnerships, decoupling from China’s dominance could take decades. Thus, India’s industrial and strategic goals would suffer a terrible blow if an embargo were to be implemented.

China might use its diplomatic position to isolate India from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO ) and BRICS by portraying its US support as a betrayal of collective interests. In 2024, China’s foreign ministry condemned such alliances, and Beijing could rally SCO members like Pakistan and Russia to obstruct India’s initiatives.

China might strengthen ties with Brazil, South Africa, and other newly incorporated nations in BRICS , which would marginalize New Delhi. Regionally, Beijing could intensify Belt and Road Initiative projects in India’s neighbors—Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bangladesh—eroding India’s” Neighbourhood First” policy.

Chinese ambassador Chen Song emphasized BRI’s role in South Asia in 2023, signaling Beijing’s desire to encircle India. Such maneuvers would undermine India’s regional influence, isolate it diplomatically, and alienate it from its allies in the Global South, and make it appear as a Western proxy.

If India persists in antagonizing China, Beijing could escalate to hard measures. As seen in the 2020 Galwan clash, border tensions may rekindle with incursions in Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh. China deployed 100 advanced rocket launchers along the Line of Actual Control in 2021, indicating its readiness to escalate.

Naval exercises in the Indian Ocean, leveraging ports like Gwadar, Hambantota and Chattogram, could challenge India’s maritime dominance. India’s telecom, energy, and banking sectors could be targeted by cyberattacks, such as the 2020 Mumbai power outage brought on by Chinese state-sponsored organizations, potentially suffocating its economy.

Proxy threats made by Pakistan or Myanmar, which are potentially armed by China, could put strain on India’s security apparatus on multiple fronts.

Soft power offers China a subtler tool to destabilize Modi’s domestic standing. A goodwill gesture was made in 2024 to allow Indian pilgrimages to begin at Tibet’s Kailash Mansarovar, a sacred site for Hindus, Jains, and Buddhists. These communities may react negatively to a new ban, putting strain on Modi’s political standing.

In Washington, India’s trade talks with the US this week will test Modi’s ability to navigate this minefield. Beijing clearly has the upper hand with its outsized role in India’s supply chains and minimal reliance on Indian trade.

Modi might have to balance the risks of defiance against the risks of dependence as a result of a mistake that could plunge India into economic turmoil, compromise its security, and weaken its reputation globally.

Bhim Bhurtel is on X at&nbsp, @BhimBhurtel

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IMF: Economic uncertainty is now higher than it was during Covid – Asia Times

Even among some of the world’s leading economic thinkers, confident predictions are currently hard to come by, according to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF)’s ( IMF) just released its World Economic Outlook.

A fortnight of seminars, presentations, and press events focusing on the worldwide economy, foreign growth, and world financial markets are held each flower in Washington, DC. The IMF releases its global economic growth prediction at both the flower discussions and the annual meetings, which are held each fall.

The IMF has released a foundation estimates and an clause analyzing the tax events that occurred between April 9 and April 14 for its spring meeting in 2025. According to the fund’s report, world GDP will grow by 2.8 % in 2025 and 3.0 % in 2026. For the euro area, growth will be 0.8 % and 1.2 % for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

These projections are significantly revised from IMF data that was released just three months ago. Growth in the euro area is down 0.2 % compared to the fund’s January update, and growth globally is down by 0.5 %.

We live in a much more ambiguous world than we did three months ago, so understanding the most recent IMF document and its negative estimates is essential.

Trump, taxes, and doubt

The term “unpredictable” may be sufficient if one had to total up the new US tax scheme in one word. The largest price increase in modern history occurred on April 2, 2025, referred to as” Liberation Day.”

The US leader next made two more presentations only one year later. Second, a 90-day ban on tax increases, which he allegedly did in search of bilateral treaties with the nations to which he had applied levies above 10 %. Next, that China would not be subject to this restriction, with the price increases on its goods increasing to 145 %.

This freeze means that until July, EU products that are sold to the US will be subject to a 10 % tariff rather than the 20 % that was announced on April 2. The new US administration’s 10 % application is still significantly higher than the standard tariff of 1.34 % that was in effect before April 5th, though.

But what will the price get after these 90 time? What will happen in December? What will happen in two centuries? What products will not be subject to the exemption? How far will China’s trade war with the US come? Nobody knows the answer to all of these issues. The IMF’s flower forecast for this uncertainty is clear.

Confusion is unstoppable.

The world industry doubt index from the IMF is now seven times higher than it was in October 2024, which is significantly higher than the pandemic.

This uncertainty affects the economy more severely than a large but clear tariff. Companies can at least restructure their manufacturing processes with a price, and customers can look for alternative goods. There is a charge, but at least businesses and consumers can make plans.

No one can determine these expenses now, though, because no one is aware of the impact of tariff changes. A US company might choose to purchase a particular product from the EU immediately assuming the price will be 10 %, but it turns out that the price has increased to 100 % once the product has arrived in the US because a political advisor predicted raising tariffs on that product would benefit the US economy.

Although it may seem incredible, the levies are being decided and put into effect in reality. According to one theory, Peter Navarro, the government’s financial advisor and tax idealist, was in another room at the time, so they were only able to persuade Trump to stop new tax increases.

Silence is ultimately the best course of action for both consumers and businesses because of this volatility.

Anxiety and turbulence

It should come as no surprise that financial markets are so unstable because of these regular plan changes. Financial areas are now experiencing levels of uncertainty and anxiety comparable to those seen during Covid-19, despite Trump’s proudly humblingly praising rising share prices soon after the price freeze was announced.

Five years ago, uncertainty was linked to a rise in the demand for US government bonds as a result of the “flight to health” effect, which forces investors to sell higher-risk investments and purchase safer assets like gold and government bonds in times of doubt.

We are now seeing the exact same. Since” Liberation Day,” the price of US bonds has decreased, which indicates that investors are selling them. In other words, the US government’s bill is no longer viewed as a protected asset. This paradigm shift may lead to even more financial volatility in the future given the impact of the money and US bill on global industry.

Supply stores are suddenly bridging.

One thing shares the recent situation with Covid-19, the next big global economic crisis, with the upheaval of global supply chains. Production was compelled to cease during the pandemic due to confinement. It is the imposition of tariffs as of right now.

There is, nevertheless, a second significant change. People were aware that there would only be so long before vaccines would be accessible and normal would return during Covid. Today, President Trump’s own advisors sell him all kinds of plans to protect US economical interests, hardly any disease, but rather instability in financial markets.

At the Universitat de Barcelona, Sergi Basco is the head of economics.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Commentary: Would Asia welcome trade deals that exclude China?

A Alliance ON A FAIRER Business

People in Asia was now trying to lessen China’s presence in the manufacturing industry. Suppliers and policymakers in this country are concerned that Chinese overcapacity did overflow their household areas with cheap imports as markets in the West shut themselves to Chinese goods.

However, these nations ‘ opportunities aren’t always in line with one another. They are competing with one another to take the place of Taiwanese suppliers in particular industries, for instance. Some would want to” cheat” any final agreement by doing so as much as possible with Chinese goods, or by assembling goods for a lower-than-us price in factories on the mainland.

To bring these various passions up, something else will be required. It’s unclear what the US has to sell if both support and business are on the board.

Trump believes that having access to US consumers is much of a vegetable, but the benefits of that business may not be as promising for nations that are locked in a race against one another and Beijing. After all, if China is ordered to leave their supply stores, it may cause too much of an increase in their costs to enter the US marketplace.

A coalition for fairer business may require customized strategies for each of these nations. He needs his employer to play on, even if Bessent can figure it out. Any agreement will necessitate Trump’s eagerness to tussle over the details and respect for these nations ‘ freedom.

Trump has promised to communicate with “more than 75” nations, according to him, who allegedly reached out to the US. He will have to acknowledge that the majority of his Eastern partners aren’t trying to defraud the US in any such negotiations.

After Xi’s trip to Vietnam, the president claimed the meeting’s goal was to” try to figure out, how do we screw the United States of America”; however, for a change of heart seems unlikely.

A business partnership that excludes China, guarantees that US local laws and higher standards won’t make its producers unprofitable, and establishes new provide chains that include US workers will be beneficial.

Trump actually requires a cooperative effort with supporters across the Pacific Ocean in order to accomplish his goals. A trans-Pacific relationship, if you will.

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Five cards China holds in a trade war with the US

Exactly 19 minutes before
Koh Ewe

BBC News

Getty Images A hand holds a small Trump figurine, showing the US President in a navy suit and red tie, with a raised hand and open mouthGetty Images

The two biggest markets of the world are currently engaged in a business war that is in full swing.

Beijing has responded with a 125 % tax on American goods, and Chinese exports to the US are subject to up to 245 % tariffs. As consumers, businesses, and industry are preparing for more doubt as the likelihood of a global slowdown has increased.

The government of Chinese President Xi Jinping has consistently vowed to engage in dialogue but warned that if necessary, it may “fight to the close.”

What tools does Beijing have to fight US President Donald Trump’s taxes, let’s take a look.

China may bear the brunt ( to some extent ).

Getty Images A worker produces lanterns at a factory in Yantai, in eastern China's Shandong province on January 8, 2024.Getty Images

Because China is the second-largest economy in the world, it is better deal with the effects of the taxes than other smaller nations.

With more than a billion individuals, it also has a sizable local industry, which might relieve producers who are struggling with taxes.

Because Chinese citizens aren’t spending enough, Beijing is also fumbling with the codes. However, with a variety of opportunities, such as subsidies for home appliances and” silver trains” for traveling taxpayers, that may change.

And Trump’s tariffs have given the Chinese Communist Party an yet stronger push to access the nation’s consumer possible.

The command does “very also be prepared to bear the pain to prevent capitulating to what they perceive to be US aggression,” Mary Lovely, a Peterson Institute in Washington DC, told BBC Newshour earlier this month.

China has a higher level for suffering as an authoritarian government because it is less concerned with short-term public opinion. There is no vote scheduled to decide its rulers right now.

Turmoil is still a priority, especially given that there is now unease over an ongoing housing problems and job losses.

For younger people who have only ever witnessed a rising China, the taxes ‘ economic uncertainty is yet another blow.

State media has urged people to “weather storms up,” while the Party has been making appeal to patriotic sentiments to support its retaliatory tariffs.

Although Xi Jinping may be concerned, Beijing has maintained a confident and resolute tone thus far. The clouds won’t fall, according to a government official.

China has made an investment in the future.

Getty Images A worker inspects an electric car at a Zeekr factory in Meishan Island in Ningbo, in China's eastern Zhejiang Province on April 18, 2025. The photo shows a row of silver-coloured vehicles at a factory. Getty Images

China has always been regarded as the country’s stock, but it has invested billions to advance.

It has been in a competition for it dominance with the US under Xi.

It has heavily invested in local technology, from bits to AI to renewable energy.

Examples include the chatbot DeepSeek, which was praised as a formidable rival to ChatGPT, and BYD, which defeated Tesla last year to become the world’s largest electric vehicle ( EV ) maker. Apple has been losing market share to regional rivals like Huawei and Vivo, who have traditionally been its customers.

Beijing recently announced plans to invest more than$ 1 billion over the next ten years to promote AI innovation.

US businesses have tried to relocate their supply chains away from China, but they have found it difficult to find the same level of skilled labor and equipment abroad.

Chinese manufacturers have given the nation a decades-long benefits that may take time to simulate at every level of the supply chain.

Beijing has been preparing for this trade conflict in some ways since Trump’s past word, thanks to its unmatched supply chain skills and state aid.

Trump 1: Training

Getty Images Vietnam's General Secretary of the Communist Party To Lam (R) receives China's President Xi Jinping during a ceremonial welcome at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi on April 14, 2025. Both men are in dark suits as children around them wave Vietnam's flag.Getty Images

Beijing has stepped up its plans for a potential beyond a US-led world attempt since Trump levies hit Chinese solar panel again in 2018.

To strengthen ties with the so-called International South, it has invested billions in a controversial business and network program known as the Belt and Road initiative.

China is trying to extricate itself from the US as a result of the expansion of trade with South East Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

American farmers used to import 40 % of China’s soybeans, but that percentage now hovers at 20 %. Beijing stepped up soybean production at home after the last trade war and purchased record amounts of the crop from Brazil, the country’s top soybean supplier.

The technique kills two birds with one stone. According to Marina Yue Zhang, associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute, it deprives America’s land belt of a once-captive industry and burnishes China’s reputation for food safety.

The US no longer holds the top position for exports in China; it now belongs in South East Asia. In reality, China was the world’s largest trading partner in 2023, almost twice as many as the US. It was the biggest exporter in the world at the end of 2024, recording a document surplus of$ 1tn.

That doesn’t imply that China needs to trade with the US, the largest economy in the world, in a meaningful way. However, it does indicate that Washington’s decision to support China into a part won’t remain simple.

Beijing has warned nations against reaching a deal at the cost of China’s interests following reports that the White House may use bilateral trade negotiations to remove China.

For the majority of the planet, that would be a difficult decision.

Tengku Zafrul Aziz, Malaysia’s commerce secretary, told the BBC last month,” We can’t decide, and we will never choose between China and the US.”

China is presently aware of Trump’s timing.

Getty Images A trader walks past holding a tablet on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell on April 21, 2025, in New York City. Behind him are blurred blue screens showing the markets and men in black suits. Getty Images

Trump remained steady as stocks fell precipitously in the wake of his abrupt tariff statement in early April, referring to his remarkable levies as “medicine.”

He made a U-turn, though, by suspending the majority of those taxes for 90 days following a sharp decline in US state bonds. Treasuries, also known as Treasuries, have long been regarded as a secure funding. However, trust in the property has been shattered by the business war.

Trump has since suggested that trade hostilities with China may be easing, claiming that there will be significant reductions in tariffs on Chinese products.

Therefore, as authorities claim, Beijing now realizes that Trump may be spooked by the bond market.

US federal bonds totaling$ 700 billion are even held by China. The sole non-US alliance to possess more than that is Japan, a steadfast supporter of the United States.

Some claim that this gives Beijing more influence: Chinese media has frequently criticized the practice of selling or withholding payments of US bonds as a “weapon.”

However, researchers caution against assuming that China will not be completely destroyed by this circumstance.

Instead, it may cause significant losses for Beijing’s assets in the bond market and destabilize the Taiwanese yuan.

China will only be allowed to “only exercise stress” on US government bonds, according to Dr. Zhang. ” China has a bargaining chip, hardly a fiscal tool,” he said.

A snag on unusual rocks

Getty Images A man wearing spectacles and a face mask bending over to look at a circular semiconductor waferGetty Images

Nevertheless, China has a nearly monopoly over what it can weaponize: the extraction and refinement of rare earths, a range of components crucial to innovative tech manufacturing.

China has a lot of these in its tidal deposits, including Yttrium, which provides heat-resistant surface for jet engines, and dysprosium, which is used in magnet in electric cars and wind turbines.

Beijing has previously reacted to Trump’s most recent taxes by limiting exports of some of the rare earths needed for the production of AI cards.

According to estimates from the International Energy Agency ( IEA ), China accounts for about 61 % of rare earths ‘ production and 92 % of their refining.

While Australia, Japan, and Vietnam have begun to mine unique planets, it will take decades before China may leave the supply chain.

China prohibited the trade of another important material, antimony, in 2024, which is essential to various manufacturing processes. In response to a wave of panic buying and a search for alternative suppliers, its value more than doubled.

The rare earths market, which is feared, could experience the same kind of disruption, seriously affecting everything from defense to electric cars.

According to Thomas Kruemmer, chairman of Ginger International Trade and Investment, “everything you can move on or off good works on unusual rocks.”

” The effect will be significant for the US defense business.”

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Pahalgam: Rage and grief after 26 killed in Indian-administered Kashmir

23 days before
Cherylann Mollan

Mumbai, BBC News

PTI Himanshi bids an emotional farewell to her husband, naval officer Vinay Narwal who was killed in the attackPTI

The brutal attack that claimed the lives of 26 individuals in Indian-administered Kashmir included an American naval commander on honeymoon, a tourist guide who was the sole father for his home, and a merchant taking a vacation with his wife and children.

A group of gunmen opened fire on on travellers on Tuesday at a hotel in Pahalgam, a picturesque city in the Himalayas that is frequently referred to as the” Switzerland of India.”

There is no standard confirmation from the government regarding the statistics that have been reported from various Indian says. Some readers have suffered serious injuries.

The region’s stressed region’s recent spate of deadly attacks has shrunk many people’s lives.

EPA Mandatory Credit: Photo by FAROOQ KHAN/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock (15265768s)A family member reacts during Adil Hussain Shah's funeral in Hapatnur, Anantnag district, India, 23 April 2025. According to officials, terrorists attacked the popular tourist destination of Pahalgam in south Kashmir, resulting in at least 26 deaths and several injuries, with Shah being one of the victims.Dozens killed after gunmen opened fire on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, Anantnag, India - 23 Apr 2025EPA

Tuesday evening was the day of the invasion. Witnesses reported hearing the sound of bullets ripping through the air at Baisaran, a mountaintop meadow, five kilometers ( three miles ) from Pahalgam, to the BBC.

They began to flee for safety, and some of their members were hurt or disbanded in the conflict.

Veenu Bhai, who fractured his finger as he attempted to flee, claimed there was chaos and mayhem all over. No one knew what was happening, he said, and children may become heard screaming.

Priyadarshini, whose father Prashant Satpathy was killed in the attack, claimed he was shot while descending from a funicular while speaking to the Indian Express paper.

JS Chandramouli, a retired businessman who had traveled to Kashmir with his family and four others, separated himself from his team, and his bullet-stricken body was discovered at the webpage of the attack, according to the newspaper.

The majority of the subjects were Hindu people.

Some witnesses claimed that the gunmen had shot non-Muslims, but others claimed it was a strange shooting. One of the patients was a native Muslim man.

The Indian government has no provided an official statement regarding the extent to which individuals have been targeted based on their religion.

In a film that has since gone viral, Himanshi can be heard saying that one of the intruders asked her husband if he was Muslim while she was on wedding with her husband, an Indian naval officer named Vinay Narwal.

She said,” When he said little, the man shot him dead.”

The couple got married on April 16th, next year. Himanshi bid her husband a sorrowful farewell on Wednesday as he lay in a tomb decorated with the American flag as he passed away.

He was the most ideal person. She prayed that his heart would rest peacefully and that he had the best life possible wherever he was.

Hawa Singh Narwal, Vinay’s father, claimed that his nephew had first wished to spend his honeymoon in Switzerland.

He claimed that he did not receive a visa.

Getty Images Locals in Kashmir shut shops and schools on Wednesday to protest against the attackGetty Images

Asavari, the daughter of businessman Santosh Jagdale, from Maharashtra state, claimed that the gunmen had asked her father to read an Islamist verse.

They pumped three shots into him, one in the nose, one behind the ears, and one in the back, when he failed to do so, she said.

She added that the attackers also killed her brother, who was standing right in front of her.

According to Pallavi, whose father Manjunath Rao was killed, one of the attackers said,” I didn’t kill you,” when she confronted them and demanded that they take her as well. Come and show Prime Minister Narendra Modi this.

People have been torn apart by the drama, and grief has engulfed households.

Some friends are teary-eyed as they speak to reporters.

Syed Hussain Shah’s family, a local person who traveled with tourists on horseback to make a life and died in the attack, claimed to ANI news agency that her brother was the family’s sole source of income.

When writers inquired about her child, she was heartbroken. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who claimed the man was killed while attempting to stop the adversaries, was among the hundreds of people who attended Shah’s death, according to reports.

A home in Maharashtra’s northern state is having trouble accepting the sudden passing of three of its users.

The attackers shot Atul Mone, Sanjay Lele, and Hemant Joshi, relatives who had traveled to Kashmir with six different family members, dead.

” We learned last night [about their deaths ] about their deaths.” A comparative told BBC Marathi that the home is shocked.

Kamal Saini/ BBC Photo of Hawa Singh Narwal (centre) greving the loss of his grandson Vinay NarwalKamal Saini/ BBC

Leaders around the world have condemned the brazen attack on one of India’s most well-known tourist destinations and startled India. Folks have been protesting all over India.

Visitors in Kashmir on Wednesday canceled shopping, restaurants, and schools in opposition of the attack. Locals expressed fear that tourists would be frightened, causing irreparable damage to their companies and Kashmir’s market, according to some locals.

In areas that were once filled with holiday activity, there is an eerie silence.

More than 24 hours have passed since the crime, and those who have been affected are also battling to understand what has happened. The insurgents suspected of carrying out the killings are currently on a massive hunt.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi canceled a trip abroad to meet with security officers in Delhi.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stated that” Those dependable and behind such an action will very shortly hear our answer, loud and clear.” We will reach those responsible for this event as well as those responsible for conspiring to carry out such acts on Indian land.

India has not yet revealed who it believes carried out the deaths. However, it launched cross-border attacks after earlier attacks, blaming radical organizations it claims Pakistan supports, which denies the accusations.

If India engages in the same kind of warfare as its nuclear-armed neighbors, according to observers, there is now a chance of them rekindling the conflict.

Hawa Singh Narwal claims to be angry and grieving and wants “exemplary abuse” for the intruders.

” I lost my nephew today. If such problems don’t quit, someone else will reduce own tomorrow, he told BBC Punjabi.

Majid Jahangir of BBC Hindi, Deepali Jagtap and Vinayak Hogade of BBC Marathi, and Kamal Saini of BBC Punjabi contributed monitoring.

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