Russia rears its head vis-a-vis Philippines in South China Sea – Asia Times

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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has described the presence of a Russian attack submarine in his nation’s exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ) in the South China Sea as “very worrisome” in a potential escalation of great power rivalry there.

On November 28, a&nbsp, &nbsp, Russian Kilo-class underwater was sighted just 80 coastal miles off the eastern Spanish territory of Occidental Mindoro. &nbsp,

” That’s very concerning. Any intrusion into the West Philippine Sea, of our EEZ, of our baselines, is very worrisome”, the Filipino president told reporters on Monday ( December 2 ).

The Russian underwater soon became known as UFA 490 and clarified its non-lethal purpose when the Philippine military fleet Jose Rizal made radio contact with it in response to the incursion.

Without providing any further details, Philippine Navy spokesman Roy Vincent Trinidad stated in a speech that the Soviet vehicle” stated it was awaiting improved weather conditions before going to Vladivostok, Russia.” &nbsp,

Admiral Trinidad tried to downplay the incident as” not alarming”, in apparent contradiction to Marcos Jr’s statement, but underscored how the Philippines was” surprised because this is a very unique submarine” .&nbsp,

Russia’s official in Manila did no comment on the matter despite press inquiries. Is it still unclear whether the Russian submarine was the updated version of the Kilo II ( Project 636.3 ) submarine from 2014 to 2016?

However, according to Russian media outlets, the 74-meter ( 243-foot ) long marine asset is armed with a missile system with a range of 12, 000 kilometers (7, 450 miles ). &nbsp,

Following a combined practice with the Malay army, the Russian submarine was headed back to Vladivostok, Russia’s east town, according to Philippine National Security Council official Jonathan Malaya. The practice came on the feet of historic&nbsp, Indonesia-Russia marine drills&nbsp, in the area last month.

Spanish authorities, following contact with the ship’s crew and appropriate Russian counterparts, reported that the submarine surfaced according to weather-related conditions. &nbsp,

Judicial intrusion

Major local experts are perplexed by the incident, and the legal context surrounding the Russian vessel’s presence in Philippine waters has also raised questions. &nbsp,

An attack underwater managing clearly and clearly in the high seas ( this is outside the territorial sea ) is not much of a threat, according to the report. Channels are for cunning and walk problems, not sailing on the surface”, Jay Batongbacal, a leading sea rules analyst based in Manila, &nbsp, wrote on his&nbsp, X accounts. &nbsp,

Foreign militaries are entitled to “innocent passage” across the Exclusive Economic Zone of coastal states under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS), but doing so should not be done in vain.

And any military deployment across another state’s EEZ is no longer considered&nbsp, &nbsp, “innocent” if it represents “any threat or use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of the coastal State” .&nbsp,

The UNCLOS has a special for submarines&nbsp, ( Article 20 ), which are required to ascertain their ‘ innocent passage’ by temporarily “navigat]ing ] on the surface…to show their flag”. The majority of UNCLOS members grant their 12 nautical miles of territorial waters the right to free section.

However, major countries such as India, China and Iran have imposed&nbsp, limits on the tuberculous presence&nbsp, of extraregional power perhaps across their EEZs. &nbsp,

For two main reasons, the Philippines is especially troubling by Russia. For one, Moscow and Beijing have declared a&nbsp,” no limits” partnership&nbsp, and simultaneously called for a’ new world order’, a strong alliance that has gained greater intensity following Russia’s war of Ukraine in 2022. &nbsp,

The two nations have also stepped up their&nbsp, defense cooperation&nbsp, in East Asia, including in fiercely disputed and geopolitically delicate waters. In July of this year, they&nbsp, conducted live-fire&nbsp, marine tasks in the South China Sea.

For the Philippines, Russia could possibly strengthen China’s growing military supremacy in the region, if never directly help the Asiatic power in the event of a disaster, including over Taiwan.

The Philippines is also concerned about Marcos Jr.’s deteriorating path of diplomatic ties. Recently, then-President Rodrigo Duterte made several trips to both Beijing and Moscow in a bid to build a new proper position.

The former Filipino president even described his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, as&nbsp, his&nbsp, “favorite hero” &nbsp, and&nbsp, “idol”, &nbsp, underscoring the depth of their personal and friendly relations.

Encouraged by Duterte’s manner and sensing, Russia quickly stepped up defence cooperation with the Philippines, America’s only full-fledged common defense treaty ally in Southeast Asia.

Consequently, Russian&nbsp, vessels docked in Manila Bay for the first time in past. Duterte individually boarded one of the visiting Russian warships, where he&nbsp, called upon his friends from Moscow to remain “our ally to protect us “—yet another thinly veiled shot at the US, which was often the goal of Duterte’s criticism, sending diplomatic relations into a tailspin.

In another first, Russia also deployed&nbsp, a defense attaché&nbsp, to Manila to explore big-ticket defense deals, including&nbsp, the potential purchase&nbsp, of submarines. The strategic flirtation&nbsp, culminated in Russia’s delivery of firearms to the Philippine National Police ( PNP ), which Washington sanctioned over its human rights record, and a&nbsp, record$ 227 deal for acquisition of Russian helicopters.

However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Duterte’s subsequent exit from office ushered in a new era of tensions between Manila and Moscow. While Duterte&nbsp, distanced himself&nbsp, from Putin’s war of aggression, his successor Marcos Jr punitively nixed a Russian Mi-17 helicopter deal in favor of American kit. &nbsp,

Throughout the ongoing war, the Philippines has also repeatedly voted in favor of Ukraine on important UN resolutions, much to Russia’s chagrin. Additionally, Marcos Jr. accepted an invitation to a Western-backed” Peace Summit” earlier this year in order to gain international support for Kyiv and was one of the few regional leaders to personally host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. &nbsp,

The Ukrainian leader thanked the Philippine leadership for its” clear position” on Russia’s “occupation of our territories” and&nbsp, sought non-lethal assistance&nbsp, from the Philippines, especially in terms of healthcare professionals and post-war recovery.

Indeed, in many ways, Marcos Jr has positioned the Philippines as a core member of an emerging “alliance of democracies” facing off against the non-Western powers of Moscow and Beijing. &nbsp,

Russia flexing regional muscles

Putin’s Russia has withstanded a first round of Western sanctions and battlefield assaults, as evidenced by his earlier this year visits to Mongolia, North Korea, and Vietnam.

Russia is also determined to keep its footing in the regional defense markets while increasing joint exercises and military exports to numerous Asian nations, including Southeast Asia. &nbsp,

Russia and the Philippines may be on a collision course with the deployment of advanced missile systems in the future, especially as Washington makes preparations for possible conflicts with China over Taiwan.

In response to the Philippines ‘&nbsp, decision to semi-permanently host, &nbsp, if not purchase, the much-vaunted&nbsp, US Typhon missile system in its northern bases, China’s defense spokesperson, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, accused Manila of “intensif]ying ] geopolitical confrontation and escalat]ing ] tensions in the region”.

The Philippines should reconsider hosting American weapons systems, which have the capability to target southern Chinese military bases, has been reiterated by China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ).

This week saw a full display of geopolitical tensions when the Philippine and the Chinese maritime forces engaged in yet another incident close to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, with each side giving contradictory accounts of the near-clash.

Earlier this year, Russia warned Japan against deploying US-made missile units to&nbsp, Japan’s southwestern Kagoshima and Okinawa prefectures, which are close to Taiwan. Russia will consider deploying short- and intermediate-range missiles on its eastern borders in response to any significant US-backed missile buildup, according to deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov. &nbsp,

Earlier this year, the Russian president also warned America’s” satellite state” allies to reconsider hosting any major American missile system. It is well known that the United States produces these missile systems and has already tested them in Denmark and Europe for exercises. Quite recently, it was announced that they are in the Philippines” .&nbsp,

The Philippines ‘ decision to host the US Typhon missile system and possibly even acquire it will likely stoke a tussle with Beijing as well as Moscow, which is averse to any significant US buildup on its eastern and western flanks.

The Philippines is suddenly at the center of a new Cold War conflict between China, Russia, and its authoritarian allies on one side and the US and its democratic allies on the other.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

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Quiet surge: China’s AI innovators doing more with less – Asia Times

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This is not a new trend, but a rise in presentations over the past few months confirms that Chinese models are also reshaping local and international dynamics and bringing about new concepts.

While the West frequently revels in the fruits of significant advances in artificial intelligence, China is also experiencing a rapid development that is both innovation and need.

To get an idea of the pace, this record the announcements from the past few weeks:

Company Model/ Solution Date Announced Important Features Significance
Alibaba Cloud Qwen-72B Quick Nov 2024 72B guidelines- Open-source- Multilingual- Advanced MoE- State-of-the-art logic performance Reinforces Alibaba’s result in the LLM area, offers a strong open-source alternative
Tencent HunYuan Video Nov 28, 2024 13B parameters- Text-to-video generation- Contrastive Video-Language Alignment ( CVLA )- Open-source A major step forward in movie era capabilities, democratizing access through empty source
Baidu iRAG Nov 12, 2024 Text-to-image era- Minimizes hallucinations using research features Increases the precision of AI-generated pictures
DeepSeek DeepSeek-R1-Lite-Preview Nov 20, 2024 Reasoning-focused design-” Chain-of-thought” reasoning- Matches Western concepts ‘ performance Shows a strong emphasis on logic, effectiveness, and keeping up with world standards
Bytedance Doubao Ongoing Doubao-PixelDance and Doubao-Seaweed for video technology- Possible integration with TikTok emphasizes Bytedance’s proficiency in blending LLMs with social media content development
JD.com ChatJD Sept 2024 E-commerce marketing- Interactive assistance- Sector-specific applications drives e-commerce development with LLMs that are focused on customer needs

China’s overlooked creativity path

Foreign types have been in synch with the West for a while, if not right away. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Its development has resulted in numerous groundbreaking contributions that were widely recognized much later and included in the tools of more well-known European modelers. Their strategy to AI has constantly been about finding fresh pathways prioritizing performance, scalability and utility.

Wu Dao 2.0, released in May 2021, is a perfect example of this first administration. It outperformed some European models of the time in terms of multimodal AI, integrating text and image control on a scale of 1.75 trillion parameters.

Beyond Wu Dao, Huawei’s Pangu-α type, introduced in 2021, exemplified China’s focus on developing resource-efficient AI. Pangu-α was among the first to show that large-scale speech models may be optimized for performance, paving the way for comparable global trends. Additionally, Bindu made a significant contribution with its first bidirectional AI models, which incorporated both visible and language capabilities. All of these were well ahead of other related developments in the West.

The latest inventions continue this pattern of pioneering techniques that will likely be replicated, if no emulated, worldwide. For instance, Tencent’s Hunyuan Video model utilizes Contrastive Video-Language Alignment ( CVLA ) to achieve impressive quality in video generation, an area where efficiency is often a key challenge.

However, DeepSeek’s” chain-of-thought” argument capabilities have drastically improved understanding of complex causes, underlining the first implementation and refinement of techniques.

Of training, China has lagged in various fields. In the patentless earth, its model manufacturers have adopted a lot more innovation than those made in the US and abroad. The critical point is that they, too, have innovated, and their inventions need more focus now because of their different focus. &nbsp,

Regulatory considerations: shaping safe and managed technology

Due to China’s special regulatory environment, Chinese developers are forced to find creative ways to meet these requirements. Artificial models are required to control generated glad in regulations, preventing potentially harmful or unwanted outputs.

This requirement has resulted in the development of sophisticated methods like responsive sign dropping, which maximize model effectiveness while successfully managing resource allocation and ensuring that models follow regulatory guidelines.

The incorporation of censorship systems into AI models is another element of regulation compliance. These functions, while provocative, function to align AI result with local rules.

Such systems could be adapted worldwide for email filtering, hazardous material restraint, and cybersecurity. The Chinese’s emphasis on safe operation and controlled outputs might help develop more stable AI systems around the world.

Hardware considerations: evolving amid minimal resources

Foreign developers have had to contend with limited exposure to cutting-edge equipment, such as innovative GPUs. These restrictions have encouraged technology and encouraged businesses to do more with less. This has resulted in improvements in how to use technology effectively and a focus on creating software that makes the most of the available technology.

For instance, Baidu adapted its Ernie concepts to work properly on Kunlun bits, while Alibaba optimized its Qwen designs for Huawei’s Ascend computers. These adjustments demonstrate how carefully combined software and hardware can transcend limitations and deliver high-quality performance.

This emphasis on maximizing output from limited resources is ingenuity and is in line with international concerns about the cost of developing AI in terms of both environmental and economic terms.

Recent advancements in the design of Sparse-Layered Models ( SLMs) and Mixture of Experts ( MoE ) architectures have further improved the capacity of Chinese AI systems to function effectively despite hardware limitations.

Alibaba’s Qwen-72B, for example, utilizes an innovative MoE infrastructure that activates just a set of design parameters during assumption. This approach—supposedly an advancement over MOE work globally—reduces mathematical weight while maintaining high performance.

Also, agentic developments, such as Baichuan AI’s Baixiaoying helper, include features that make interactions more effective by leveraging Sparse-MoE methods. Given that limited technology does not significantly affect the quality of user interactions or mathematical efficiency, these models are designed to be both resource-aware and extremely flexible.

DeepSeek’s decline in key running costs to 1 RMB per million currencies illustrates another feature of this constraint-driven technology. Although more research is required, this strategy points to a convincing trend in cost-effective AI and sets precedents for affordability that could be crucial as AI continues to expand internationally.

Focusing on software: the real-world influence of Chinese AI

Chinese AI improvements have excelled at concentrating on real-world applications that target market needs. Foreign companies have focused on specific areas where AI can have an immediate impact, in contrast to Western trends to grow LLM capabilities for general-purpose employ. This method has led to major mobility, robotics, medical, and e-commerce advances.

BYD is integrating LLMs for sophisticated message assistants and intelligent driving features, making them more user-friendly and customized driving activities. &nbsp, In automation, Foreign LLMs are driving developments in human-robot conversation. These advancements enable more efficient computerized systems that function flawlessly with human users.

Aside from such cobots, businesses like Geek and Hai Robotics apply AI-powered robots for inventory technology. Robots were created by Elephant Robotics to provide old treatment. A host of businesses are using&nbsp, AI-powered drones and drones for tasks like produce blasting, seeding, and field monitoring aside from planting.

For medical applications, Baidu’s iRAG device has shown significant success in improving the reliability of AI in health imaging by reducing hallucinations—an vital step in enhancing medical accuracy.

After the latest NY Times article that demonstrated AI types ‘ incredible diagnostic accuracy compared to skilled doctors, Baidu has been constantly developing ERNIE Bot 4.0 for health consultation. The regulatory obstacles may be lower for China. &nbsp,

The chemical structure of 1.7 billion drug-like molecules in the market has been learned by Huawei’s Pangu drug molecule model. Huawei anticipates the model to act as a virtual chemist, assisting researchers in developing and identifying novel molecules that are likely to interact with drug targets, and lowering R&amp, D costs by over 70 %.

Chinese models are also notable for their emphasis on accessibility. Tools like Baidu’s Miaoda no-code AI application builder make it easier to create AI-powered solutions, enabling smaller businesses without specialized technical teams to harness the power of LLMs. &nbsp,

Tencent is utilizing HunYuan Pro’s AI capabilities to streamline game development processes. The model can assist with tasks like generating game dialogue, creating non-player characters ( NPCs ) with realistic behaviors, and generating game levels and environments.

A different path to global benefit

In all innovation centers, AI models and applications are created globally. Chinese AI innovation demonstrates a different path toward technological advancement, where creativity is fueled by constraints and efficiency is the driving force behind progress.

Chinese AI developers have transformed constraints in their regulatory environment and resources into opportunities rather than just adaptation. Their emphasis on application, efficiency, and adaptability forms a valuable counterbalance to the Western focus on scaling and capability expansion.

Most importantly, there is a remarkable pick-up in the announcements of late. In end-user-affecting changes like TikTok’s latest features, Tencent changing the accessibility in WeChat, or Baidu’s glasses, Chinese innovations are also reaching end-users rapidly.

Even after reading reports from the media and analyst circles, it may seem as though nothing is happening with the Chinese tech companies in the AI space. None of these are likely to be ignored by the markets for very long.

In the future, especially when we discuss Korea, we will come back to the negative effects of the inability to cause excitement, although this is also true for China.

Nilesh Jasani is an LC GenInnov Fund investor based in Singapore.

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What to expect next out of suddenly unhinged South Korea – Asia Times

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Yoon Suk Yeol, the president of South Korea, declared martial law on Tuesday evening, sending ripples through the earth.

Yoon’s competitors in the National Assembly soon gathered at the government to protest the order. This caused a serious conflict in which soldiers took command of the structure.

However, in the early time of Wednesday, adequate numbers of South Vietnamese legislators gained access to the room. Of the 300 people, 190 made it in, which is far more than the 150 needed for the voting to take place. They overwhelmingly voted down the government’s purchase at around 1 am.

However, around the government, Yoon’s competitors continued to accumulate in a tense standoff with defense.

By about 4:30 am, Yoon had formally acknowledged that his effort had failed and that the military forces had already left. The order may been rescinded. It put an end to a president-to-the-National Assembly’s brief but significant constitutional issue.

Important political freedoms are suspended by military law, which enables the military to training more authority in times of war or serious threats to public safety.

A order by Yoon’s just empowered martial law chief, Army Chief of Staff General Park An-su, proclaimed:

]… ] all political activities, including those related to the National Assembly, regional assemblies, political parties, the forming of political organisations, rallies and protests are banned.

Additionally, this martial law decree placed severe restrictions on the press’s liberty and put an end to an ongoing strike by young South Korean doctors.

But, little immediate attempt was made to adopt the order. As a result, criticism activity was frequently reported in real-time.

Why was military laws declared?

Yoon defended the military law by accusing his domestic political rivals of “anti-state actions plotting revolt.”

He asserts that he was shielding “pro North Korean forces” from the law. This is a facetious term that some South Korean conservatives often use against their liberal foes.

Decades of domestic political conflict between the North Korean head and the opposition-dominated National Assembly provide abroader perspective for this decision.

Yoon cited his detractors ‘ repeated attempts to remove senior members of his leadership and their blocking of budget policy as additional justification for martial law.

Who is South Korea’s leader?

In 2022, Yoon won with a extremely unpopular lot. He’s immediately seen a range of social corruption scandals, further depleting his help.

According to recent polls, he only receives about 25 % of the Asian public’s opinion.

After a number of embarrassing scandals involving alleged fraud, tensions rose especially between Yoon’s woman and South Korea’s first woman, Kim Keon-hee, who had formally apologized for their behavior in early November.

Legacy of dictatorship

Senate is undoubtedly in order, especially if South Koreans turn out in large quantities over the upcoming trip to demand that Yoon’s term be overthrown.

South Korea has made significant progress in political merger since the change to democratic rule in 1987, with a solid and engaged civil society.

At the same time, there is a lengthy history of scandal, impeachment and yet reported criminality among Korea’s democratically elected president.

Most recently in 2017, original President Park Geun-hye’s term in office ended shortly after public demonstrations and prosecution around an influence-peddling incident.

In 2018, Park was given a lengthy prison sentence for relevant acts. In 2021, she received a pardon from her leader.

On the one hand, the effective antagonism to Yoon’s military laws decree has demonstrated the political resilience of South Korea’s organizations and social traditions.

Critics of military rules included the mind of Yoon’s conservative People Power Party, Han Dong-hoon, who denounced the government’s order as “wrong” and promised he do” prevent it with the people”.

But for some of Yoon’s competitors, his strength capture was an all too common reminder of the region’s mid-20th-century tradition of conservative, military-led law.

What will happen next?

In South Korea’s current democratic period, military legislation was first enacted.

The country’s money and marketplaces may experience immediate financial damage, but its hard-won reputation as a stable and mature democracy may suffer a significant blow.

While the immediate constitutional crises has then receded, the political problems remains. Issues have now turned to Yoon’s potential.

The president’s main opposition party has vowed to launch a proper prosecution investigation unless he resigns right away.

Alexander M Hynd is a doctoral study fellow, UNSW Sydney

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Trump tariffs potential death knell for Japan automakers – Asia Times

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Somewhere in the world, probably Beirut, Carlos Ghosn is having a severe case of sadness.

The Nissan-Motor-CEO-turned-international-fugitive is seeing stock plunge 47 % during the recent CEO’s five-year career. Makoto Uchida also lost more than 100 percent details to Japan’s Topix score. He’s then Nissan’s worst-performing president since at least 1974.

But Nissan’s slip isn’t happening in a suction, as Japan’s another engine giants can speak.

In 2019, the business was still reeling from Ghos n’s arrest on financial misconduct charges and escape. Nissan and its Japanese competitors are now facing a worldwide market shakeup caused by the growth of China.

Or, as Michael Dunne, CEO of automobile industry advice ZoZoGo, calls it, the “great China vehicle blitzkrieg”. According to Dunne,” the unexpected flood of Chinese cars is upending years of steady market securities and profits.”

As Donald Trump enters the White House to start off trade war, China Inc. is becoming even more of a goal. Chinese manufacturers are under increasing pressure due to a precise explosion in competition from China, particularly in the field of energy vehicles.

The Volt manufacturing acceleration process has been at best slower. Has Japan Inc. CEOs ‘ pressure on the nation’s long-dominant hybrid car market shifted to EVs and loosened their hand?

” China may export a spectacular 6 million vehicles to more than one hundred countries this month, cementing its status as the country’s No 1 producer”, Dunne says.

The typical price of those made-in-China cars: US$ 19, 000. ” That’s less than half the regular price of a new vehicle in America and Europe”, Dunne adds. Customers in all time zones are switching to new Chery, MG, Changan, and BYD models instead of Chevys, VWs, and Hondas.

If not for Trump’s returning to the scene 48 time from now, Chinese EVs eating Japan’s meal would be problems much. The US president-elect has hit the ground running by enacting transfer taxes on both China and Canada.

Trump’s inclusion of neighbors in his price list is shocking Tokyo and Seoul. One big concern is Trump’s plan to impose 100 % levies on vehicles made in Mexico ( and, presumably, on Canada too ).

As Trump results to business, his “revenge” journey is sure to start in Asia. That has leaders at Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and some bracing to levies of similar scale heading Asia’s manner. Auto-production-heavy markets like Thailand also may be in harm’s way as global supply chains go astray.

Tesla businessman Elon Musk has Trump’s hearing as the next trade war develops, thinning the story. Earlier this year, Musk warned that Chinese Vehicle areas are destined to have” important” achievement outside China.

Musk claimed in January that” the Chinese auto companies are the most competitive car companies in the world.” According to the statement,” I believe they will have a major achievement outside of China depending on the establishment of taxes or trade barriers.”

But, he added, “frankly, I think, if there are no industry restrictions established, they will very much dismantle most various companies in the world”.

In the months that followed, Musk has attempted to refute those sentiments. Apparently, someone in the Shanghai place reminded Musk of Tesla’s sprawling manufacturing presence there, where he built his first outside” Plant”.

Musk’s close relationship with Trump — including a position as authorities efficiency advisor— muddies the issue. How Musk manages to compromise his position in Trump World with an economy that Tesla heavily relies on, one that Tesla relies on.

Some argue that Musk’s level – and position in Trump World – may help Tesla engage in China via-a-vis contemporaries.

Tesla “has the scale and scope that are unmatched in the EV industry, and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled with likely higher China tariffs that will continue to dethrone cheaper Chinese EV players ( BYD, Nio, etc. )” from flooding the U. S. business over the forthcoming times”, says Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities.

There is nothing scientific about where all this leads, though, in Japan, where the country’s economy is still reeling from decades of excessive monetary easing.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has been frantically trying to meet with Trump since his shock victory on November 5. But to no cost. So much, Trump World has refused to grant Ishiba a Mar-a-Lago market.

Ishiba hopes that by forming a specific relationship with Trump, Japan Inc. will suffer less collateral harm. It’s what former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did during Trump’s 2017-2021 president.

Abe became the first earth president to jump to Trump Tower in New York to love the ring in November 2016, just weeks after Trump’s victory in the election. But other than garnered worldwide headlines, the prank did little good.

Trump continued to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was started by the US. Abe had pressed Trump to be on the TPP, which was the foundation of Tokyo’s efforts to encircle China.

Nor did Abe’s beauty offensive win Tokyo a slip on the Trump 1.0 taxes. Trump, however, palled around with Kim Jong Un in way that upheld North Korea’s brutal government at the cost of Japan’s national security. Trump humiliated Abe by revealing that the Chinese president had nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, adding insult to injury.

But there’s another reason Ishiba may perform Trump 2.0 quite carefully: the interpersonal US leader’s wish for a “grand bargain” with Xi.

Trump government takes, including Scott Bessent as US Treasury director, argue that this is the end game. Today’s risks of large tariffs, they argue, are only a negotiating strategy aimed at prodding Beijing to flex to US needs.

Japan’s issue is that it would be looking into any diplomatic Group of Two trade offer from the outside. Chinese EV industry would be the main beneficiaries of any such agreement.

That, of course, would be the same of President Joe Biden’s plan of shutting Chinese Vehicles out of the US business with 100 % fees.

Trump claimed on the campaign trail that “large companies are only being built across the border in Mexico” by China to make vehicles to offer in the US market. Our folks will man those flowers, and those plants will be constructed in the United States.

The vegetables Trump may employ to encourage China to construct US factories remain ambiguous. But the stick if China Inc doesn’t post could be 200 % tariffs, Trump has warned.

Where does this leave South Korea and Japan, in my opinion?

Now, it’s clear Foreign EV makers are on a break. By the time they were a month quick, BYD, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi already had their yearly delivery goals crossed. What’s more, BYD, Xpeng and Zeekr saw record quarterly sales in November.

BYD, for instance, delivered 504, 003 passenger cars in November and 500, 526 in October. Its full-year sales for passenger vehicles presently hit 3, 740, 930, exceeding the week’s 3.6 million goal.

Leapmotor, which is backed by Stellantis, saw 40, 169 deliveries in November, up 5.2 % from October and a whopping 117 % year on year. As competition in China heats up, Tesla has had to slash Model Y prices by 10, 000 yuan ( US$ 1, 371 ) to 239, 900 yuan ( US$ 32, 000 ).

At the moment, Chinese automakers are playing catch-up in the EV area and boosting purchases. That’s regardless of what becomes of Trump’s business conflict or his pledge to eliminate Biden’s$ 7, 500 return on EV payments.

Toyota, for instance, is building a great power shop in the US state of North Carolina”. We plan for the long term, but political considerations aren’t a factor in how we approach product creation or investment opportunities,” says David Christ, vice president of Toyota North America.

Yet Japan Inc. is bleeding global market share. A new analysis by Bloomberg economists found that Japanese automakers saw the biggest market share losses of any peers between 2019 and 2024 in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

How China is gaining from those losses can be written in bold font between the lines. It’s likely they’ll strengthen that push,” says Bloomberg Intelligence senior auto analyst Tatsuo Yoshida of China’s ambitions.

Even the sales and output of the much-vaunted Toyota appears&nbsp, to have plateaued. All six of the main Japanese automakers that Bloomberg Intelligence has tracked have consistently ceded ground. In Thailand and in Singapore, where Japanese carmakers long enjoyed strong customer loyalty, market shares are down to 35 % from 50%-plus in 2019.

In 2023, China dethroned Japan to become the world’s top automaker. The devastating blow to Japan’s collective psyche was the worst since China overtook Japan in terms of GDP in 2011.

However, the ways that Chinese automakers managed to capture Japan’s nap continue to surprise economic historians. It’s not just autos. Efforts to generate more tech” unicorns,” for example, didn’t gain the traction Japan’s government expected. Even today, Japan trails Indonesia in the race to generate US$ 1 billion-plus valuation startups.

As the EV market expanded, Japan’s persistent obsession with hybrid vehicles reflects this same pattern. Granted, the slowdown in US demand for EVs has many auto analysts believing Japan’s dual-track approach has merit. At least temporarily.

Yet Toyota officials and their Japanese counterparts are in fact aware of their errors when they dismiss the EV future as being in view. Toyota is catching up on older models. Japan’s top automaker is tripling EV output as it chases China’s BYD, which in 2023 surpassed Musk’s Tesla.

The question, of course, is whether it may already be too late as Tesla, Detroit, Germany and China beat Toyota to the market”. No one,” says advisory ZoZoGo’s Dunne”, can match BYD on price. Period. Boardrooms in America, Europe, Korea and Japan are in a state of shock.”

Of course, Trump’s trade war could complicate the outlook considerably. This is especially important because no one is sure whether Trump will strike a deal with Xi’s China or instead impose tariffs.

For now, Cigdem Cerit, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, sees a” neutral outlook for the global automotive sector, “reflecting” our expectation of a stable production environment, with global light vehicle sales projected to increase by about 2 %.”

But Cerit adds”, the growth will be unevenly distributed across regions, as European and Chinese markets face macroeconomic challenges. We expect pricing to remain subdued due to escalating competition.”

For Japanese chieftains like Nissan’s Uchida to those at Toyota, the threat from China’s auto industry isn’t to be taken lightly. Nor does the upcoming US government work with China Inc. or support its replacement.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Equinix energises digital landscape in Singapore with additional 58.5 MWp of solar energy 

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  • Agreement help Singapore’s move towards a brighter economy
  • Equinix will receive 133.5 MW of solar energy from Sembcorp Power.

Equinix energises digital landscape in Singapore with additional 58.5 MWp of solar energy 

The digital infrastructure company® Equinix, Inc., has signed its second renewable energy power purchase agreement ( PPA ) with Sembcorp Power Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Sembcorp Industries, in an effort to help reduce the effects of global climate change. Sembcorp Power announced in a statement that it will support Equinix’s expanding data center portfolio with a maximum of 133.5 Megawatts ( MWp ) of renewable energy with this second PPA.

According to the report, Equinix’s continuing investment underscores its commitment to providing modern facilities for economic growth while reducing carbon emissions in accordance with the Singapore Green Plan 2030.

Beginning in 2029, this minute PPA will allow Equinix to generate a maximum capacity of 58.5 MWp of solar power generated by JTC’s qualities on Jurong Island. This renewable energy source may significantly reduce carbon emissions by 30 to 30 to 200 tonnes annually, making that number comparable to the power of over 17, 200 four-room HDB condos. This PPA may allow fresh energy to help the country’s transition to a green economy by aligning with the Singapore government’s commitment to make Jurong Island a sustainable energy and substances park.

Lee May Leong, Managing Director, Singapore, Equinix, said:” Data centres serve as the foundation of the online business, but the increasing power demands of AI are impacting national energy constraints and emissions targets. Equinix is positively addressing these issues by putting forth energy-saving best practices and procurement strategies that are in line with our climate commitments. We’re delighted to announce our next PPA in Singapore, which demonstrates our ongoing commitment to supporting our customers ‘ efforts to advance their businesses and achieve conservation goals.

Meanwhile, Vickrem Vijayan, Head of Energy Commercial ( Singapore ), Sembcorp, said:” We are pleased to deepen our ongoing partnership with Equinix, supporting them in advancing their sustainability goals and helping to shape a more sustainable digital economy. We look forward to future partnerships that will advance Singapore’s 2030 Green Plan and promote the change of strength.

Highlights/Key Information:

  • The houses of five JTC houses, including Jurong Rock Caverns ‘ above-ground services and Jurong Island Checkpoint, will be covered by this thermal deployment on Jurong Island, which will also include 60 hectares of vacant land.
  • Equinix and Sembcorp signed their first long-term PPA in Singapore in April 2024, which is anticipated to produce about 75 MWp of renewable energy starting on January 1, 2027.
  • Since 2015, Equinix has executed 25 PPAs worldwide, including arrangements in Australia, India, and Singapore in 2024. These agreements are expected to contribute approximately 3, 250, 000 megawatt hours ( MWh ) of renewable energy annually to local grids across the US, Australia, France, Finland, India, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Singapore once operational.
  • In 2023, Equinix achieved 96 % solar cover across its international operations. In Asia-Pacific, Equinix achieved 100 % renewable coverage in China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, and Singapore markets in 2023.

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Tariffs have two very different meanings for Trump – Asia Times

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Donald Trump has not adhered to agreement. But some people were surprised last week when he threatened to attack China, Mexico, and Canada over what his trade policy would be when he took office on January 20. Presidents-elect are not supposed to announce policies in advance, but he does n’t care about such niceties.

Strangely enough, but, his statement was really very soothing, perhaps more convincing than he meant it to be.

How could it be regarded as comforting to know that the first day of his presidency would threaten to impose 25 % tariffs on all exports of goods from America’s two biggest and closest investing partners? How could it be comforting to be threatened with a 10 % tax increase on Chinese goods? The obvious motivation behind these risks is what provides the answer.

Trump’s stated love of tariffs, which he described as” the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” is the subject of a heated debate over whether he views them as economic and fiscal policy tools or as leverage in negotiations. If they are instruments of financial and fiscal policy, the taxes will be popular and long-lasting. They will be targeted at particular places and may be very short-lived if they are negotiating weapons.

The threat of tariffs as negotiating weapons was really comforting because of how they were placed in the next category. And since the names of the arms ‘ potential targets were so ambiguous and impossible, it should be relatively simple for China, Mexico, and Canada to deal with them.

In reality, each of the three threats was aimed at putting an American national issue on the shoulders of foreign nations. Trump claimed that the threats made against China and Mexico were meant to force those nations into halting the flow of the methadone drug that results in 100, 000 deaths annually in America as a result of overdoses.

None of these nations may fulfill their obligations. Fentanyl and its components are subject to stricter controls in China, but it can be purchased from numerous sources and is notoriously difficult to control. According to the&nbsp, Financial Times, deaths caused by fentanyl abuse in the US actually decreased by 20 % last year. It is unclear why Mexico could be any worse at policing the US-Mexico border than the US itself, given that the illegal immigration across the French border is currently little.

The expectations are clear. Trump may only want to sway a small amount from each of these governments so that he can consider a victory and demonstrate earlier in his administration how strong he is and how America may outperform different nations under his leadership.

This kind of bullying behavior is not the real cause of Trump’s and taxes ‘ worries. Nor does it stay in his employ of tariffs against certain places, such as China. In the same way that he did during his first term in office, he dealt with challenges of the kind this year. Perhaps a nation as large as China would simply defer business through other channels rather than completely halt it with high tariffs against it. After Trump imposed 25 % tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, this was the case, and it would happen once more.

The real worry

The real worry is that he might want to use tariffs as a genuine tool of economic and fiscal policy, believing that imposing high tariff barriers around America will raise fiscal revenues, promote domestic manufacturing and eliminate America’s trade deficits. If so, then his campaign promise of implementing a 10% or 20% universal tariff – on goods imports from all countries except those on which even higher tariffs are imposed – would be carried out.

This would not be a communicating technique, which would force Europe to spend more on defense or purchase more American liquefied natural gas. In the belief that doing so would render the US more productive and stronger, it would adhere to a deeply held deglobalization idea. Such a plan may be sustained until at least the close of Trump’s word in 2028 and had basically make the existing laws of the world trading system, policed by the World Trade Organization in Geneva, outdated (or, at best, in expulsion ).

Trump’s deglobalization theory is still a mystery as of right now. His choice of Scott Bessent as the Treasury Secretary suggests that he wo n’t attempt to implement a radical change in economic policy. Bessent is a fairly orthodox investment fund manager. However, his nominations for Commerce secretary ( Howard Lutnick, another financier ) and US trade representative ( Jamieson Greer, a lawyer ) suggest that he might, for those men have voiced strong support for broad tariffs.

The manufacturing sector in America typically relies on imported components and raw materials, which would present a significant challenge for Trump, Lutnick, and Greer in imposing a 10 % or 20 % universal tariff. While some manufacturers may welcome defense against foreign competitors, others, including in the defense industry, had notice their input costs rise sharply as a result. Replacing global supply chains with local ones would be problematic, time-consuming, and costly and generally might not even be feasible.

The best chance is that any proposal to implement a universal tariff will receive a wave of lobbying for specific exemptions, enough to postpone the policy or possibly discredit it immediately.

This year’s tax risks were all about negotiating with foreign institutions. Also Trump’s pretended best buddy, Elon Musk, whose Tesla electric car company, Starlink satellite online company, and SpaceX rocket-launcher all rely on world markets and supply chains, would need to negotiate a large tariff.

Discussions with foreigners might be much simpler than those with Americans.

Previously editor-in-chief of The Economist, &nbsp, Bill Emmott&nbsp, is currently president of the&nbsp, Japan Society of the UK, the&nbsp, International Institute for Strategic Studies&nbsp, and the&nbsp, International Trade Institute.

This post, originally published on Bill Emmott’s Global View, is the English classic of an essay published December 2 in Italian by La Stampa. It is republished with authority.

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All bow before the almighty US dollar – Asia Times

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The earth was suffering from a massive abundance of dollars in 1971. The world was being flooded with money by British international investment and assistance, as well as US government policies that were inflationary.

The earth had too little golden at the same time, especially the United States. That was a problem because, unlike today, exchange rates did n’t float freely on markets. Money were to be exchanged for gold for$ 35 an ounce. ( The currencies of other countries were fixed-rate pegged to the dollar. )

Europeans were frantically attempting to exchange money for metal or exchange them for other currencies. With the US progressively unable to fulfill its responsibility, traders expected devaluation.

President Richard Nixon halted the economy’s conversionibility into gold in August of that year in response to the money crisis.

Despite a later established devaluation, speculators continued to attack the money. By 1973, the gold standard and resolved exchange rates were past.

Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connally made a wonderfully cynical post that is frequently quoted yet now during the devaluation negotiations in 1971. Connally stated to foreigners,” The money is your problem, but ours.”

In an unexpected way, the money was likewise my problem. In 1971, I was the 24-year-old minesweeping and offer agent on the USS Pivot. The Nixon administration decided to pay for basic rights that by granting Pivot and several other US Navy minesweepers as pay for the money problems.

In preparation, the Pivot’s captain tasked me with teaching our crew Spanish – a language that I did n’t know and that the crew turned out to be uninterested in learning. I called the Pentagon in a desperate attempt to find someone there who could help me compile a lengthy list of minesweeper conditions in Spanish. By pointing at their mimeographed files of the list, the crew successfully overcame the language barrier.

These weeks a strong money is, in many ways, everybody’s issue. It’s particularly difficult for international places.

International Monetary Fund research last year concluded that for emerging-market economies,” a 10 % U. S. dollar appreciation, linked to global financial market forces, decreases economic output by 1.9 % after one year, and this drag lingers for two and a half years”. Development-developed nations are worst hit by their ballooning local currency principal and interest duty.

Higher interest rates are a possible issue for the Federal Reserve Board and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, if that’s one of the reasons for a stronger money. Donald Trump, the president-elect, wants more authority over the Federal Reserve, weaker currencies, and lower interest rates. However, the Fed will keep rates higher, which will tend to keep the buck powerful, if his policies are as many economists and investors predicted. In such a case, Powell may find himself in Trump’s sights again.

A stronger money would be no joy for US exporting companies, pretty little including agriculture. Without the money dwindling more, it’s difficult enough to engage with Brazil and other ag-exporting nations.

The money appears to be strengthening further. Since April 2022, the US Dollar Index has been in solid country, rising above 100, and rising since soon September. Despite the mayor’s choices, Wall Street is betting that it will expand under a Trump presidency.

Trump has significantly reassured markets by appointing hedge-fund director Scott Bessent as treasurer. In recent days, the money and long-term interest rates have both increased slightly. Wall Street’s fears about prices have been fueled by the promise of enormous tariffs. Bessent has criticized taxes less heavily, claiming that they can serve as a bargaining chip and that coordination should be done with US friends.

Bessent furthermore, however, has promised to keep the economy’s position as the nation’s reserve currency. That’s a good thing for any government minister to perform, reserve-currency position affords the US many advantages. Keep in mind, though, that it is one of the factors the money is therefore often strong. With so much of the world’s business and assets denominated in dollars, there’s nearly always require for the divine buck.

Connally was half-right, the money is really our money. But it’s not just their difficulty. It’s about everybody’s.

Past lifelong Wall Street Journal Asia journalist and editor&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, is writer professor of DTN/The Progressive Farmer.

This&nbsp, content, &nbsp, initially published on December 2 by the latter news business and then republished by Asia Times with authority, is © Copyright 2024 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. Follow&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, on&nbsp, X @urbanize&nbsp,

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Malaysia deepens economic ties with a Russia shunned over Ukraine invasion

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However, industry players said some companies may not want to get into business with Russia out of fear they would face trade obstacles given the ongoing sanctions.

For instance, the United States’ latest sanctions sought to further curtail Russia’s use of the international financial system.

Standardising currency used in business with Russia may therefore emerge as a challenge, noted chairman of the Small and Medium Enterprises Association of Malaysia William Ng.

Also, while Russia may have developed its own state-of-the-art software and information technology applications, they would be a hard-sell in Southeast Asia, he added. 

“We have been reliant on the American (and) European vendors for many years. To now shift the reliance to Russia as an option will take a bit of learning,” he said. 

“At the end of the day, we know what is the elephant in the room: That is the issue of Ukraine. Until and unless Russia solves it – and only Russia can solve this issue – everybody else will be at risk (of sanctions),” he added.

RELATIONS BETWEEN ASEAN AND RUSSIA

Still, Malaysia, which will take on the leadership of ASEAN next year, is eager to engage with Russia and BRICS member countries to diversify from its traditional markets, while maintaining ASEAN centrality amid intense superpower rivalries.

Already, ASEAN has benefitted from its trade ties with Russia.

In 2023, Russia’s trade turnover with ASEAN grew by 15 per cent from the previous year. 

The BRICS grouping, which was formed to act as a counterweight to the West and originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, added 13 partner countries in October, including ASEAN nations Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. 

ASEAN, with a combined GDP of almost US$4 trillion, is the fifth-largest economy in the world. 

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