No China stimulus? Time to buy – Asia Times

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It’s a wonderful time

Clouds falls, you feel like

It’s a wonderful time

Don’t let it get ahead

– U2

Do not get Taiwanese companies because you think a big fiscal stimulus is coming. Get Chinese shares because a big fiscal signal is not needed.

The bull situation for Chinese stocks is not that stimulus may save the economy. The bull event for Chinese stocks is that homeowners are sitting on US$ 20 trillion in payments with nowhere to go.

The managed destruction of the property market is ongoing. Authorities have curtailed money management products and their inherent guarantees.

Money controls prevent easy access to foreign goods. And the coming storm of high-tech technology companies in clean power, semiconductors, aviation, robotics and biotech will have a lively equity market to get off the ground.          

China ’s economic transformation will be ill-served by flood-the-zone stimulus which – if we recall – is what got us the real estate bubble and subsequent “three red lines ” credit limits in the first place. What China ’s economic transition needs is better execution of “establish the new before abolishing the old. ”

What if we generate of China ’s new stimulus methods? The grab bag of goodies – reserve requirement ratio ( RRR ) cut, lowered interest/mortgage rates, special local bond sales, cash for clunker programs– are all bullets pointing in the same direction. But the power falls well short of a bazooka.

Trillions of renminbi ( RMB) in fiscal stimulus have been dangled but apparently withheld given the non-meeting held by the National Development and Reform Commission ( NDRC ) after the holidays. What has been offered will help China achieve 5 % gross domestic product ( GDP ) growth this year, hardly a lofty goal.

The only interesting policy is the People’s Bank of China ’s ( PBOC ) unexpected support for equity markets through 1 ) a collateral replacement scheme to increase risk assets at institutional investors and 2 ) a program to encourage bank lending for share buybacks.

While some ascribe this to an effort to drink consumer confidence, the likelier inspiration is an effort by the PBoC to redeploy some of China ’s$ 20 trillion in family bank deposits.

China ’s roaring property market in the past couple of weeks has given the box of laws a vote of confidence. Note that private marketplaces are behaving far more sensibly than global markets.

China ’s markets took one year off from October 1-7for National Day breaks – enough time for global markets to roll wild and unrestrained thoughts about fiscal stimulus of RMB2 trillion, RMB4 trillion, RMB6 trillion and RMB10 trillion.

The following pain in Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong and through global ETFs occurred in Shanghai and Shenzhen after industry reopened.

Properly attributing local business confidence is of course unthinkable. Low prices from beaten down shares provide a healthy surface.

The NDRC non-meeting may include lanced the cook of huge trigger expectations. The business has good determined that China is severe about utilizing capital markets. What it needs to figure out then is that China ’s financial woes are not as grave as made out to be.

How well has President Xi Jinping managed China ’s market? Much of the company hit is predicting Japan-style stagnation, if no inevitable decline. That, of course, has been the situation for years.

According to one famous China-based economist’s 2015 forecast, President Xi’s financial performance may have earned him God Emperor standing in the mythology of China ’s socialist officials:

My assumption is that, under President Xi’s name, 2013-2023, common growth rates are unlikely to reach 3-4 %. That’s not my prediction, that ’s the upper limit of my prediction… I think that if President Xi is able to pull off average growth rates of 3-4 % during his 10 years in office, he will have accomplished something that we should really be astonished. It would be truly impressive, almost on par with what Deng Xiaoping did in the 1980’s …

In President Xi’s first two conditions, China ’s economy grew at a 6. 2 % compound average growth rate ( CAGR ), nearly double the upper limit of said predictions. China substantially outgrew all major markets except India. Somehow, our analyst was hardly twice as dismayed.

Perhaps it was President Xi’s personal problem, extending his time in office past the usual two five-year words. Alternatively of graduating with double starred first accolades from our scholar, Xi has only extended his experiments trying to earn an extraordinary triple or even a double starred second.

Graphic: Asia Times

Han Feizi’s assessment of President Xi’s economic performance is considerably less generous. Economic growth of 6. 2 % CAGR in Xi’s first two terms is not at all astonishing; it was, in fact, modestly below expectations ( Covid 2000 to 2022, what can you do? ).

Han Feizi did not and does not share our Beijing economist’s bleak assessment of the economy that Xi inherited and thus cannot grant bonus points for outperformance:

[President Xi] inherited a much more difficult economy than we think. There’s a huge amount of debt. There’s a huge amount of unrecognized bad debt.                

While China did take on a lot of debt and take it on quickly, Han Feizi fundamentally disagrees that the amount of debt and the quality of the debt is all that problematic.

It has been his correspondent’s contention that the size of China ’s economy is significantly understated compared to OECD national accounts ( see here ).

China ’s debt-to-GDP ratio is, thus, closer to ~125-200 % instead of the often quoted ~300 %. Moreover, this debt largely financed housing and infrastructure – long-lived assets with relatively low maintenance capital – able to generate value for decades.

China still has 15-20 % of the population to urbanize. Given urbanization of 1 % of the population per year, overbuilt housing should naturally resolve itself by kicking the can down the road.

As such, China ’s debt is nowhere near capacity. Xi inherited an economy headed in the wrong direction, not an economy out of runway. With property investment hobbled by redline credit limits in 2020, China nonetheless continued to grow 5 % by redirecting lending to advanced manufacturing.

A sentiment that Han Feizi might share with our Beijing economist is that Xi’s record is incomplete. No marks can be given until he sees things through. Things being another transformation of China ’s economy and society, which Han Feizi has written about before ( see here ):

China wants America’s Silicon Valley but regulated, Japan’s car companies but electrified, Germany ’s Mittelstand but scalable and Korea’s Chaebols but without political capture. It wants to lead the world in science and technology but without cram schools. A thriving economy but with common prosperity. Industry without air pollution. Digital lifestyles without gaming addiction. Material plenty without hedonism. Modernity without its ills. This is, of course, a wish-list and unrealistically ambitious. But these mad scientists sure as hell are going to try. They’ve developed a taste for it.

Various pieces of this transformation have started to take shape. The anti-corruption campaign under Xi’s tenure has been unyielding and dare we say transformative. China ’s once low-trust and loutish public of the Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao eras is now unrecognizable, able to sustain high-trust business models like shared bikes and take-only-what-you-paid-for vending machines ( see here ).

The professional environment for China ’s young grads is surely far less treacherous than the get-rich-quick-at-any-cost mentality of the go-go days.

Output from the “new three” industries – solar, batteries and EVs – are surging, although capacity appears to be growing even faster. Deflation across multiple sectors has set off alarm bells. Although not ideal, China ’s deflation is fundamentally different from Japan’s in its lost decades.

Simplistically, deflation caused by decreasing consumption ( demand curve shifting in ) is bad; deflation caused by increasing production ( supply curve shifting out ) is good.

Unlike Japan, which suffered two recessions in the 1990s, demand in China is still growing, if weaker than optimal. Japan’s deflation started when Tokyo was the most expensive city in the world with cantaloupes selling for$ 100 each. This is not the same deflation China is currently dealing with.

China ’s real disposable household income grew 6. 1 % in 2023. In recent years, regulators have crimped the income of previously high-flying professionals in finance, tech and real estate. Upper-tier income growth has stalled while lower-tier income growth has been robust.

Economist Simon Kuznets ’s prediction that inequality would rise in the early stages of economic development before peaking and falling as wealth increases is playing out perfectly in China while it confounds expectations in more capitalist economies.      

Graphic: Asia Times

And, of course, Han Feizi does not believe China ’s economy is egregiously unbalanced ( perhaps not even unbalanced at all ) and thus has no need for massive consumption stimulus.

This is the key reason Han Feizi was not “astonished ” by China ’s ability to maintain growth over 6 % in Xi’s first two terms. There is no need for consumption to outgrow investment to signal economic health ( see here ) and thus no need for massive consumption stimulus.

China ’s regulators and anti-corruption investigators have ransacked the nation’s banks and brokerages and detained high-profile bankers, attempting to put a leash on an industry with a natural tendency to run amok. The PBoC’s support for equity markets may signal confidence in the clean-up work recently performed.

So yes, buy Chinese stocks. Valuations are still cheap, and$ 20 trillion of savings has nowhere to go. Equity markets are being prepared for China ’s high-tech future.

Growth is more sustainable in a high-trust and more equal society. No there will not be a massive consumer stimulus. But that is precisely why you should buy, not sell, China.

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Debt forces Maldives to pivot back to India from China – Asia Times

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The Maldives, known for breathtaking resorts and serene beaches, is battling an escalating debt crisis and attempting a delicate balancing act between its two largest creditors: India and China. As the island nation braced for an impending debt default, President Mohamed Muizzu’s leadership will be tested by how he steers his country through this turbulent economic and geopolitical landscape.

As of August 2024, the Maldives’ foreign currency reserves totaled $437 million, which could cover only about a month and a half of import bills. The country is projected to arrange $600-$700 million of debt service expenses in 2025 and more than $1 billion in 2026. The island nation owes China about $1.3 billion and India about $130 million.

Against this backdrop, the Maldives president met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on October 7, in a bid to secure much-needed financial assistance, amid fears that the island nation may default on a crucial $25 million bond payment. Reuters reported that India approved a $400 million currency swap agreement, a much needed lifeline for the debt strapped country of half a million people in terms of accessing short-term liquidity.

Maldives debt troubles are related to Sukuk bonds. Sukok is a special type of financial instrument that is often referred to as an Islamic bond, which operates quite differently from conventional bonds in order to comply with Islamic principles, particularly the prohibition of interest.

Unlike traditional bonds, which are debt instruments setting out that investors have lent money in exchange for interest payments, Sukuk represents ownership in a tangible asset or a pool of assets. Investors receive returns not from interest but from the revenue generated by the asset. If Maldives default on its Sukuk debt, that will be the first such event of sovereign default for Sukuk.

Absent much needed financial rescue from the likes of India, the ramifications of Maldives missing its Sukuk payment would be devastating: it could block access to international capital markets, shake investor confidence, and tip the Maldives into deeper economic turmoil.

While the Maldives with the latest assurances of help from India may have avoided an immediate default on its Sukuk debt, the country’s broader economic troubles remain unresolved, with significant debt payments looming in the coming years.

Geopolitical rivalries, structural weaknesses

The Maldives’ economic distress is deeply intertwined with the geopolitical rivalry between two major players in the region, India and China. Over the past decade, the country has borrowed extensively from both nations, but the two offer assistance with different goals in mind.

China’s loans have largely funded infrastructure projects tied to its Belt and Road Initiative, helping Beijing expand its strategic footprint in the Indian Ocean. India, on the other hand, sees the Maldives as a critical part of its regional security and has provided financial aid to counter China’s growing influence.

President Muizzu in his ‘India Out’ T-shirt. Photo: X

Muizzu’s rise to power in 2023 was underpinned by an “India Out” campaign, aimed at reducing the Maldives’ reliance on New Delhi and drawing the country closer to Beijing.

On his way to electoral victory, Muizzu promised that, once elected, he would expel Indian soldiers who were deployed in the Maldives on humanitarian assistance engagements.

Bowing down to such political pressure, India replaced dozens of its soldiers – exchanging them with civilian experts. However, as Maldives continued its plunge towards a debt crisis, shortly after coming to power, President Muizzu’s government caved in to pragmatism and softened its stance toward India, recognizing that Maldives’ immediate survival hinges on securing financial support from both China and India.

Maldives’ real challenges lie in its unsustainable debt burden and the structural vulnerabilities that underpin its economy. The country is overwhelmingly dependent on tourism, an industry highly susceptible to global economic shocks, as evidenced by the downturn following the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, Maldives imports most of its essential goods – and rising global commodity prices have compounded its financial woes, draining foreign reserves and making it even harder to service debt.

This situation places the Maldives in a precarious position between the two competing powers. India and China both have significant economic and strategic interests in the Maldives, and their financial aid comes with expectations.

For China, the Maldives is an important link in its maritime strategy, while for India, the Maldives represents a key part of its efforts to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region. As President Muizzu navigates these tricky diplomatic waters, he must find a way to secure financial support without compromising the country’s sovereignty.

As for India, there are strong incentives to take President Muizzu into its fold, given that India sustained a series of diplomatic setbacks as several pro-India governments lost power in South Asia recently.

In Sri Lanka, a marxist politician, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, became president. In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, arguably the most Pro-Indian Prime Minister in Bangladesh’s history, fled to India after being forced to resign by student-led protests. In Nepal, K.P. Sharma Oli, a pro-China politician, was elected as prime minister.

Reversing any of the recent diplomatic failures in India’s backyard will be viewed as a political victory for Indian Prime Minister Modi.

The goal: long-term solutions that leave sovereignty intact

The Maldives’ economic problems are structural, and addressing them will require more than temporary currency swaps and loans. The country needs a comprehensive strategy to diversify its economy away from tourism and reduce its dependency on imports, but such changes will take time – and political will.

The Maldives’ government has proposed several measures to address the crisis, including tax reforms, budget cuts and the restructuring of state-owned enterprises. These proposals aim to improve fiscal discipline and reduce the reliance on external borrowing. Yet, implementing these reforms will be a daunting task. Austerity measures such as tax increases and public service cuts have historically triggered protests in the Maldives, and Muizzu’s government may face significant resistance to these changes.

The question of whether the Maldives will turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout also looms large. Although the government has thus far resisted this option, citing the temporary nature of its financial difficulties, many experts believe that an IMF intervention may be inevitable if the debt crisis worsens. However, an IMF bailout would come with stringent conditions including further austerity measures that could exacerbate social unrest and hurt the economy in the short term.

Unlikely to have a long term solution ready at hand, the Maldives will continue to depend heavily on India and China for financial support. But this dependence will come at a cost as both these regional powers are likely to use their financial leverage to push for greater political influence in the country.

India may seek to use its financial assistance as a way to reassert its strategic interests in the region, while China could leverage its economic investments to secure long-term control over key infrastructure projects.

The danger of this approach is that it could undermine the Maldives’ sovereignty. While financial support from India and China may help the Maldives avoid an immediate default, it risks entangling the country in the broader geopolitical rivalry between the two powers – thus endangering its own security. The delicate balancing act necessary to handle this geopolitical quicksand will require President Muizzu to be both a shrewd diplomat and a careful economic planner, as the stakes could not be higher.

A template for other small nations to follow?

The Maldives’ debt crisis is a cautionary tale for small nations that rely heavily on foreign loans and single industries such as tourism. Without a long-term plan for economic diversification and debt restructuring, the country will remain vulnerable to financial instability and external shocks.

President Muizzu’s recent mending of ties with India in exchange for accessing capital reliefs offers only a temporary solution, as it is not a substitute for the broader reforms that are needed to stabilize the economy.

The political cost of these reforms could be significant, but the alternative – continued dependence on foreign loans and increasing debt – is far more dangerous. To prevent a deeper crisis, the Maldives will need to enact tough but necessary reforms, build its foreign reserves and explore new sectors for economic growth.

President Muizzu must know that bold actions are needed at this critical juncture of his country’s national history. It is his time to take decisive actions to secure its financial future or risk being drawn deeper into the geopolitical currents that threaten to pull it under.

In a region marked by rising competition between India and China, the Maldives’ next moves could set a precedent for how small, debt-ridden nations handle the delicate balance between economic necessity and political independence.

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Trump’s economic program would weaken the US – and Australia – Asia Times

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It’s time to take Donald Trump seriously. Betting markets say it’s as likely as not he will be elected US president in four weeks.

And unlike in 2016 when his program wasn’t clearly defined, he has set out plainly what he intends to do. Which means it’s possible to model the consequences.

The three Trump promises with the greatest economic impact are

  • the deportation of millions of US residents
  • steep restrictions on imports, especially from China
  • presidential influence over interest rates.

The best way to model the consequences is with an established model of the kind used by the International Monetary Fund and central banks around the world rather than one set up for the purpose that could be seen as designed to favor or not favor Trump.

The Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics has just done that, noting that during Trump’s first term as president he “by and large” did what he said he would do.

It finds

ironically, despite his “make the foreigners pay” rhetoric, Trump’s package of policies does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the world.

No other country in the world would be hurt by Trump’s program as much as the US – not even China – although several US allies would suffer, including Australia, which would be the fourth-worst hit by the most extreme version of what Trump is proposing.

Mass deportations

Trump has repeatedly promised the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” targeting up to 20 million unauthorized immigrants, including about 8.3 million thought to be in the workforce.

He says his model is Operation Wetback – a 1956 Eisenhower administration program that used military-style tactics to deport 1.3 million Mexicans.

The institute says Eisenhower’s success makes it easy to believe Trump could remove 1.3 million immigrant workers. It has modeled two scenarios: removing 1.3 million and 8.3 million, both over two years in 2025 and 2026.

Both slash employment, including the employment of non-immigrants, both push up inflation, which eventually is brought under control, and both make the US a less attractive place to invest, which benefits much of the rest of the world.

The institute says the low and high scenarios differ “only by the degree of damage inflicted on people, households, firms and the overall economy”.

Huge tariff hikes

Trump wants to increase every tariff on goods imported to the US by 10 percentage points, including where there is at present no tariff. And he wants at least a 60% tariff on imports from China. The institute has modelled both, with and without retaliatory tariffs from China and the rest of the world.

It finds, unsurprisingly, that extra tariffs push up the price of US imports and the prices of US-produced goods that compete with imports. Many are used as inputs in manufacturing, which means US manufacturing suffers (which is probably not what Trump had in mind).

Fewer imports mean less demand for foreign exchange within the US, which means a higher US dollar which makes US exports less competitive. The US economy is weaker as a result, although China’s is weaker still and Australia’s is weakened as much as the US given its role in providing resources to China.

Tampering with the Fed

Trump has raised the prospect of more presidential influence over interest rates, saying he thinks he has “a better instinct than, in many cases” the board of US Federal Reserve. This could be achieved by requiring the president to be consulted on rate decisions or by appointing a compliant chair.

However it’s done, the institute’s “conservative” assumption based on what happens in developing countries with less central bank independence is that it will push inflation two percentage points higher.

The modeled result is capital flight. While the US economy is initially stronger than it would have been because of the Fed’s willingness to tolerate higher inflation, after a few years it is weaker and every other economy is stronger.

When all the measures are combined, under the extreme scenarios the US economy is 6.7% weaker than it would have been by 2035 and Australia’s is 0.2% weaker. Under the more modest scenarios, the US economy is 1.6% weaker and Australia’s is 0.06% weaker.

Why not examine Harris?

Despite a history of non-partisanship, the Peterson Institute is prepared for criticism. It points out that the economic model it used is regarded as the best in the world for scenario planning and is Australian, built by Warwick McKibbin of the Australian National University.

And it says it has modeled the Trump policies rather than the Harris policies because only Trump’s represent a departure from business as usual.

As the Institute’s president, Adam Posen, put it in Washington last month, the Harris campaign has said it will not impose across-the-board tariffs, will not engage in mass deportations and will not interfere with the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

The Trump campaign has indicated it will do all three.

It’s entirely possible that in office Trump wouldn’t do everything he proposed while campaigning, and it’s entirely possible that he would change course if what was doing damaged the US in the way the modeling suggests.

But there’s something to be said for taking people at their word, at least to get an idea of what we could be in store for after a knife-edge election.

Peter Martin is a visiting fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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US election: Latinos hold the key to swinging Pennsylvania – Asia Times

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Some Democratic managers suggested that an endorsement from Puerto Rican saving performer Bad Bunny may have a greater impact on the election, especially in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, where about 300, 000 available Puerto Rican voters are located. In early September 2024, Taylor Swift posted a message to her 284 million followers on Instagram.

But when many Americans think of Pennsylvania’s deindustrialized northeast counties– including national bellwethers such as Northampton – they may consider more of Billy Joel’s” Allentown” than Poor Bunny’s” Una Velita“, a song about the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.

As a professor of history and the director of Latina/o Studies at Penn State, I believe that both the famous singer-songwriter and the Grammy-winning master of reggaeton and capture can contribute to the understanding of the social environment in the Keystone State, which is commonly believed to be the site of the election’s decisive outcome.

Man wearing multicolored and multipatterned puffer jacket and chunky necklaces holds neon green microphone
In Puerto Rico, Bad Bunny has n’t resisted running for president, giving him the chance to support a member. Photo: Frazer Harrison via Getty Images / The Talk

Closing down all businesses

In 1982, when Billy Joel recorded his melancholy song about employees left on because” they’re closing all the companies down”, he was generally describing the situation in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, 6 kilometers from Allentown.

The huge Bethlehem Steel Corp. began to lay off tens of thousands of employees as early as the 1970s. But Joel found that not much ballad with” Bethlehem”, so he used the neighboring town instead.

By the 1970s, Pennsylvania’s smaller commercial places such as Bethlehem, Hazleton, York, Reading and Lancaster were losing people and strength, and in many cases had been declining for years.

And for many Americans, especially those outside Pennsylvania, the image of these cities has n’t changed since. They also consider cities that are crowded by bright factory workers.

YouTube video

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Growing Latino appearance

However, Allentown, Bethlehem, and another Pennsylvania’s older commercial locations have benefited in part from the arrival of new people, the majority Hispanic from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These visitors have assisted in restoring population growth, stabilizing housing industry, and supplying labour to fresh sectors like warehousing and transportation since the 1990s.

A higher Latino proportion than Los Angeles can now be found in Allentown at 54 %, which is higher than that of Los Angeles.

Lancaster and York, which are 40 % and 38 % Latino, respectively, have significantly larger proportions of Latinos than Chicago and New York. And Reading, with 69 % Latinos, is almost as Latino as Miami, at 70 %. Of course, those big towns have a much larger electorate than the general population.

Latinos are settling in these places for three reasons. They typically have a large number of warehousing and shipping jobs, cheap accommodation, and a sense of community, especially in comparison to New York City, where many of these new residents are immigrants from rather than Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic.

Because of the labor movement, industrialized towns like Allentown, Bethlehem, and Reading have long been Democratic strongholds. And they continue to be, despite the fact that both union influence and Hispanic voter leanings have contributed to this.

In contrast to 34 % who say the same about the Republican Party, 60 % of Latino adults in the United States believe the Democratic Party represents the interests of “people like them” in a survey from Pew Research Center for 2022.

There were more than 1 million Latinos in Pennsylvania as of the 2020 U.S. census, which is the first time this number has increased to more than 1.1 million. Around 580, 000 eligible voters are included in this, despite the fact that Latinos typically register and cast ballots much less frequently than non-Latino white and black voters.

It’s undoubtedly oversimplified to attribute a state or national margin of victory to just one demographic, whether it was Latinos in 2024, office-park dads in the 1990s, or office-park dads in the 2000s.

But in a very close election like this one, small shifts in the margins among key groups, such as Latino voters in Pennsylvania, can determine who becomes president.

Puerto Ricans lean Democrat

The Latino vote includes a wide range of nationalities and identities, and partisan preferences greatly differ among them.

For example, Mexicans and Puerto Ricans have shown the greatest loyalty to the Democratic Party, while Cubans are famously the most Republican-leaning, followed by Venezuelans.

Moreover, Pennsylvania’s Hispanic population shows a very different distribution from the national scene. Across the U. S., people of Mexican ancestry account for about 60 % of all Latinos, Puerto Ricans compose 9.5 %, and Cubans, Dominicans and Salvadorans make up about 4 % each.

Red car with Harris-Walz signs drives past a crowd of people holding Trump-Vance signs and Puerto Rican flags
During the Puerto Rican Day Parade in Reading, Pennsylvania, a crowd gathers outside the Trump campaign office.

But in Pennsylvania, 53 % of Latinos are Puerto Rican and 13 % identify as Mexican. Meanwhile, 11 % say they are Dominican, and only 3 % Cuban.

And this brings us to Vega Baja, a small city on Puerto Rico’s northern coast, where Bad Bunny was born and raised. Puerto Rican citizens are citizens of the United States, but they are only able to cast ballots in US elections when they reside on the mainland. In November, Pennsylvanians could become crucial for their fate.

90, 000 undecided votes?

Latinos made up the overall coalition that helped Joe Biden win the state of his birth and become president in 2020.

Biden won about 75 % of Pennsylvania Latino votes to 25 % for Trump. Given that Biden won Pennsylvania by just 80, 000 votes in 2020, how the state’s 580, 000 Latino voters split their votes in 2024 could determine the next president.

This is demonstrated by the most recent survey of Latinos in nearby Northampton County. Among Latinos in the county, the September 2024 poll found that Harris was leading Trump 60 % to 25 %.

Although this was undoubtedly a strong Harris lead, the significance lay in the background.

Harris’s Latino vote share statewide in 2020 was not attained by the poll, and Trump’s Latino vote share was also falling short of his own 2020 Latino totals. About 90, 000 Latino voters may still be undecided, so by the numbers, they could be in a position to decide who to support and by what margin.

There has been a lot of discussion about whether Bad Bunny will sponsor the race because of this. Both campaigns are firmly convinced that influential Latinas and Latinos ‘ support might persuade influential people.

In addition to national support from stars such as America Ferrera and Rosario Dawson, the Harris campaign recently held a rally in Allentown featuring Emmy-winning actress Liza Colón-Zayas from” The Bear”, and” Hamilton” and” In the Heights” star Anthony Ramos – both of Puerto Rican descent.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign staged Anuel AA and Justin Quiles, both of whom performed in support of the former president at his Johnstown rally in late August.

Latinos make their decisions based on a combination of economic interests, cultural values, and community sentiment, similar to how other voters do it. No one is certain whether a celebrity endorsement will make a difference, but campaigns will try anything to entice undecided voters to vote for their candidate.

The Democratic National Committee made the announcement on September 29 that it would spend more money on engaging Puerto Rican and other Latino voters in Pennsylvania in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

The Southwest still has the highest percentage of Hispanic voters, but eastern Pennsylvania, which is where the majority of Latina and Latino voters may live.

A. K. Sandoval-Strausz is professor of history, Penn State

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Japan gig work shaping and squeezing a new precariat class – Asia Times

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The Chinese company Timee, which was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in July, held its second income call on September 12. CEO Ryo Ogawa lauded the company’s growth, headlined by 72.6 % and 60.6 % YoY rises in sales revenue and gross profit, respectively.

Highlighting the product’s 1.2 million and growing account, Ogawa touted potential partnerships with remote regions and market associations, ranging from restaurants to security guard providers, as a way to ultimately resolve Japan’s growing labor shortage.

Traders, however, are extremely wary. After the IPO, Timee’s stock price increased by up to 28 %, and it has since steadily fallen nearly 40 % below the IPO price.

Analysts blamed the decrease on the possibility that Timee will face stiff competition from larger, more well-resourced web giants like Mercuri if they start to expand their business and quickly poach Timee’s clientele rather than blaming its fundamentals.

In other words, the success of Timee’s business concept may be its very fate.

Fall of the precariat

However, Timee’s accomplishment speaks to some remarkable changes in the Japanese labour markets. While “irregular employment”, including part-time, contract and freelance workers, represented less than 15 % of the Japanese labor force in 1985, the figure soared to 37 % by 2023, numbering more than 21 million.

An estimated 7 to 10 million of these people work as gig workers, meaning they depend on a regular stream of small projects from various clients for survival rather than a steady job at a single employer. At the bottom of this job work population lies Timee’s workplace.

The platform attracts workers in desperate need of urgent income who are not constantly attainable by offering work that does not require an interview, no background check, and immediate pay upon gig completion.

The worker may be given little-paying, basic, repeated work that necessitates much thought and does not allow for many long-term professional development and learning due to the employer’s inability to evaluate the worker beforehand. &nbsp,

The lower quality of such gig work is extremely leading to a population of “precariats” dependent on the jobs for survival, however, due to the inability to grow properly, are forever” stuck” in low-quality jobs.

The insecurity is obvious from Timee’s user base statistics. More than 60 % of Timee’s registered users are over the age of 30, 88 % earn less than 5 million Japanese yen ( US$ 33, 700 ) per year, and more than half are” core workers” using the platform at least eight times per month.

Timee has significantly evolved into a system for aging workers who, for whatever reason, have fallen short of the full-time career path in corporate Japan rather than serving youths looking for some spending cash outside of their study hours. &nbsp,

Salaryman of the recent

To be clear, the development of a precarious social category of job personnel is by no means exclusive to Japan. The fall of an underclass job worker, however, clearly contradicts the accepted view of the Asian labor market, which restrains economic growth. &nbsp,

After all, many candidates proposed loosening regulations to prevent the fire and hiring of ordinary employees during the late concluded elections for the decision Liberal Democratic Party’s president, perpetuating the prevalence of the “one-company salaryman” due to the sheer cost of job-hopping.

Analysts at both Japanese and international think tanks attributed the country’s underwhelming productivity to the propensity for something close to lifelong employment as a root cause, according to experts in Japan and other countries.

A new reality is brought to light by Timee’s rise by its army of older gig workers: the Japanese labor market is becoming less and less competitive due to the rigidity of full-time formal employment.

The country’s inequality will continue to rise as more and more Japanese workers work outside of traditional jobs, accelerating a trend where the Gini coefficient increased by nearly 60 % in the last four decades until 2019. Timee and its potential rivals in the gig economy are poised to further exacerbate that gap.

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Asean must remain neutral to boost regional investment, says Tengku Zafrul

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Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz, ASEAN, says that in order to encourage foreign investments in the region, it may keep its independence despite international political conflicts.

The Investment, Trade, and Industry Minister emphasised that the bloc’s diversity and accessibility may serve as key sights to draw in assets, while furthermore underscoring the importance of conservation.

ALSO READ: Tengku Zafrul: Asean may rely on high-impact’ fast wins’ to provide substantial business values

” We trade and maintain connections with all Western countries, the West, and BRICS countries such as China and Russia.

He made the comment during a meeting with the Malaysian media on Monday ( October 7 ) that “at the same time, the global economy is facing challenges, with global gross domestic product growth appearing slower than anticipated.

Tengku Zafrul and his team traveled to Laos on October 6 to take part in the Asean Summits 44 and 45, as well as other related discussions, which are scheduled for October 8 through October 11.

ALSO READ: Malaysia all set to head Asean in 2025, backed by Indonesia, emphasising diversity and conservation

He also took part in the previous day’s 24th Asean Economic Community ( AEC ) Council Meeting.

Despite global economic and geopolitical risks, Tengku Zafrul noted that Asean continues to bring important assets, contrasting with a decline in global foreign direct opportunities.

” We are bucking the pattern, which is a good sign. However, there is a possibility that taxes will be imposed to guard particular markets. This is why Asean needs to keep in touch with various organizations, mainly through international forums like the World Trade Organization, “he added.

ALSO READ: Independence, shared management Asean’s best bet for tackling global problems, says PM

However, Tengku Zafrul mentioned that the AEC’s Strategic Plan for 2026-2030, currently being developed, is expected to get presented in May 2025 when Malaysia assumes the Asean Chairmanship.

He highlighted the plan’s importance in ensuring ASEAN’s market continues to grow by 4.0 %- 5.0 % by 2030, positioning it as the country’s fourth-largest monetary union.

” Right then, we are the fifth-largest economic union, with a population of 680 million, almost half of whom are under 30 years old.

” So, we need to focus on the post-2025 plan, strengthening Asean and showcasing our exclusive statement as a bloc”, he said.

During the AEC Council Meeting, Tengku Zafrul emphasised the importance of increasing intra-Asean industry, which now stands at only 23%-24 %.

He also urged Asean to prioritise micro, small, and medium businesses, which make up around 89 % to 99 % of the region’s total companies.

Datuk Sari Anwar Ibrahim, the country’s prime minister, is also anticipated to enter the conference.

On October 11, Laos, the latest Asean Chair, will formally transfer the chair to Malaysia. – Bernama

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Chinese stocks jump as markets reopen after Golden Week break

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As property markets reopened following the Golden Week trip, which was fueled by programs to increase China’s struggling economy, shares prices have increased in China.

In day trade, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 10 % as more information about the proposed new procedures is expected to be made public.

After the government and the central bank released new stimulus plans, standard stock indexes on both mainland China and Hong Kong spiked quickly before the weekly holiday.

The actions include support for the crisis-hit home business, assistance for the property market, cash handouts for the weak and more government spending.

Shareholders may be closely watching as Chinese National Development and Reform Commission officials are scheduled to release additional information immediately.

Leaders are attempting to bolster confidence in the second-largest economy in the world as fears grow that it might fall short of its own 5 % annual growth goal.

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Commentary: Can China’s stimulus blitz fix its flagging economy?

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GOOD NEWS BOOSTS INVESTMENT SENTIMENT

As investors anticipate a rise in the demand for goods and services, payment expansion, at least in the near future, may have a positive impact on the price of commodities and the financial markets. And, following the kills of fresh methods, this is exactly what we have seen.

China’s major stock score surged by more than 4 per cent within days of the central bank’s news, enjoying its best single-day protest in 16 years. And this was followed by an increase in the standard price of oil of more than 1 %. Since then, sentiment has remained beneficial, with Chinese securities increasing by about 20 % over the course of the five days since the announcement.

Expansionary plans do, but, even come with risks. Since 2021, China’s housing market has been in crisis as a result of the government’s restrictions on the amount of money developers can acquire, which has caused many developers to default on their debts. Making significant borrowing costs could rekindle a surge in sales and values, causing a new housing bubble.

But it could be a thus before China’s house business starts to burn. House costs in China are falling rapidly and there’s lots of free products. According to Goldman Sachs, the government may need to invest more than 15 trillion yuan to resolve the sector’s issues, which is significantly more than the new stimulus campaign can deliver on its own.

Predicting the outcome of the main company’s new financial deal in the long-term is challenging. It will likely take a year or two before any actual consequences start to appear. But, at least in theory, the growth of private credit that will be triggered by the main bank’s lending rate cut, as well as the related banking stimulus, may spread to the wider economy.

This really restore building and construction activities, increase customer spending, and boost demand for capital goods. In the long run, this may encourage China to pursue local demand-driven growth rather than export-dependent growth.

China’s economic magic has traditionally been based on export growth, which reached their highest level in 2006, when the country’s export accounted for 36 % of GDP. This ratio has decreased significantly since then, dropping to 19.7 % in 2023, but it still stands strong in comparison to similar markets. In 2022, the export-to-GDP amount in the United States, for instance, was 11.6 per cent.

Due to this, China is especially vulnerable to political shocks like the US’s decision to impose new tariffs on imports of Taiwanese electric vehicles, thermal tools, and batteries.

The tariffs have decreased the need for Chinese imports in the US business, but they have not undermined China’s standing in global supply chains. The demand specifically for Chinese electrical automobiles in the US was, certainly, now very small.

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Govt support to make ‘pla ra’ from blackchin tilapia

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PUBLISHED: 7 Oct 2024 at 17: 22

Blackchin tilapia.
Blackchin fishes.

The Department of Fisheries is developing “pla ra,” or fermented bass sauce, to turn blackchin tilapia into a novel method to remove them from Thailand’s waters.

The office will work with local communities in affected areas to practice caught blackchin fish into the well-known eastern spice in an effort to stop the spread of the invasive species, which poses a menace to commercially-valued fish stocks in at least nine provinces, according to department head Bancha Sukkaew.

According to him, Akkara Prompow, the deputy minister of agriculture and cooperatives, has requested that the office take proactive measures to reduce the effect of the aggressive fish on the economies of the affected regions.

The plan, he said, aims to remove at least 200, 000 kg of blackchin fish from lakes in Chumphon, Phetchaburi, Samut Prakan, Samut Songkhram, Prachin Buri, Ratchaburi, Chon Buri, Rayong and Nonthaburi regions.

The tools needed to make army ra will each get 245,000 baht from the sign-up communities. In total, the department may manage 4.9 million ringgit to the system, said Mr Bancha. Twenty populations had signed off, to date.

Phichaya Chainak, chairman of the Fisheriees Industrial Technology, Research and Development Division (FTDD), said spiced fish items, such as trained army baba and powdered army ra, are not only commonly consumed in Thailand, but also exported to markets in different Asean countries, China, the European Union, the Middle East and the United States.

According to Ms. Phichaya, adding blackchin tilapia to the pla ra will not only help stop the aggressive fish from spreading, but it will also increase regional economies and encourage community involvement.

Bancha, the head of the department, expressed confidence that this program will help to prevent the spread of alien species, increase local seafood items ‘ price, and promote grassroots economic growth.

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