Manufacturing is a war now – and the democracies are losing – Asia Times

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Elon Musk recently&nbsp, reposted a video&nbsp, showing a clip of aircraft crowds in China, declaring that the age of guarded fighter jet was around.

I’m not sure if Musk is right about the F-35 and other manned fighters — drones and fighters play different roles on the battlefield, and may coexist in the future ( for an argument that the F-35 itself has been overly maligned, &nbsp, watch this fun video ). But in any situation, Musk’s larger point that drones will occupy the battle of the future should presently be&nbsp, extremely uncontroversial.

Uavs have already become the standard method of battle surveillance and the necessary army weapon, able to defeat both tanks and soldiers.

For the moment, electronic warfare uses EM indicators to thwart drones ‘ interaction with their pilots and GPS satellites, but even that defense will be largely ineffective once AI becomes more advanced enough to allow drones to explore on their own. Without a large number of drones, it will be impossible to fight and win a modern war, even though this doesn’t mean robots will be the only means of combat.

And who makes FPV robots, of the kind depicted in Musk’s movie? China. China’s DJI and different manufacturers are the biggest players in the market for professional drones, despite the US still being the market leader in military drone production:

Source: DroneDJ

And a device is a fundamental part of any FPV aircraft. In fact, the first step in the development of the helicopter revolution was the advancement of better magnet for motors, better magnet for motors, and various types of computer chips for detecting and control. And who makes the chargers? That would also be China:

Source: BNEF

So I then want you to consider what would happen if the US and its allies engaged in a significant conflict with China, as researchers believe is becoming more and more likely. In the first few days, the majority of the two nations ‘ arsenals of weapons, including robots and the batteries that power robots, will be used up. It will then be up to who can make more ammunition and bring them to the field in time, as it did with Ukraine. 1

What will the US do if our friends and we are unable to produce a lot of munitions at that time? We will have to choose between losing the war to China and 1 ) starting with a nuclear war. Those may be our only choices. Either approach, &nbsp, the US and its allies will drop.

Then know that the US and its allies aren’t really falling behind China in aircraft and power manufacturing— they’re falling behind in&nbsp, all kinds of manufacturing. The table below comes&nbsp, from a 2024 review by UNIDO, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization:

Source: UNIDO

The United States and its allies in Asia, Europe, and Latin America made up the vast majority of international industrial production in 2000, with China only 6 %, despite decades of rapid development. Exactly thirty years later, according to UNIDO projections, China will account for 45 % of all global manufacturing, completely outperforming or matching the US and all of its allies.

This is a level of production dominance by a single nation that has only been witnessed half in the history of the world: by the UK at the start of the Industrial Revolution and by the US only after World War 2. It means that in an expanded battle of production, there is no assurance that&nbsp, the entire world united&nbsp, was defeat&nbsp, China alone.

That is a really dangerous and unpredictable position. If it does happen, China may be essentially free to start any standard issue it wants without worrying that it will be ganged up because there won’t be a strong enough gang to defeat it. The only thing they’ll have to worry is nuclear arms.

And, of course, other countries will realize this in advance, so in any issue that’s not absolutely philosophical, most of them will likely make the rational alternative to provide China whatever it wants&nbsp, without&nbsp, fighting. China wants to conquer Taiwan and occupy the entire South China Sea, according to 2&nbsp. Fine, go ahead.

China wants to annex Japan and Arunachal Pradesh. All yours, sir. As retaliation for the agreements China was forced to sign in the 19th century, China wants to make Japan and Europe sign “unequal treaties.” Absolutely. China wants preferential access to the world’s minerals, fossil fuels, and food supplies? Go ahead. And so on.

China’s leaders know this very well, of course, which is why they are unleashing a massive and unprecedented amount of&nbsp, industrial policy spending&nbsp, — in the form of cheap bank loans, tax credits, and direct subsidies — to raise production in militarily useful manufacturing industries like autos, batteries, electronics, chemicals, ships, aircraft, drones, and&nbsp, foundational semiconductors.

This doesn’t just raise Chinese production — it also creates&nbsp, a flood of overcapacity&nbsp, that spills out into global markets and forces American, European, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies out of the market.

By creating overcapacity, China is&nbsp, forcibly deindustrializing&nbsp, every single one of its geopolitical rivals. Yes, this reduces profit for Chinese companies, but profit is not the goal of war.

America’s most economically important allies — Germany and Japan — are bearing the brunt of China’s most recent industrial assault. In the 2000s and 2010s, Germany’s manufacturing exports boomed, as they sold China high-tech machinery and components. China has now copied, stole or reinvented much of Germany’s technology, and are now squeezing out the German suppliers:

Source: &nbsp, Brad Setser

This is one reason, though not the only reason, for German industrial production to have been declining since 2017:

Source: &nbsp, Marginal Revolution

In addition, China has already wiped out a significant portion of Japan’s electronics sector, and a recent glut of cheap Chinese car exports has destroyed the country’s cherished Japanese auto industry:

Source: &nbsp, Bloomberg via Noahopinion

The democratic countries have all struggled to respond to China’s industrial assault, because as capitalist countries, they naturally think about manufacturing mainly in terms of&nbsp, economic efficiency and profits&nbsp, unless a major war is actively in progress.

Democratic countries ‘ economies are primarily set up as&nbsp, free market economies with redistribution because this is what increases living standards in peacetime. In a free market economy, you permit a foreign country to sell you cheap cars, and you instead use your own productive resources for something more lucrative.

If China is willing to sell you brand-new electric vehicles for$ 10, 000, why should you turn them down? Just make B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps, sell them for a high-profit margin, and drive a Chinese car.

Except for a war, you discover that B2B SaaS, advertising platforms, and chat apps aren’t very effective at defending your freedoms. Oops! The right time to worry about manufacturing would have been&nbsp, years before&nbsp, the war, except you weren’t able to anticipate and prepare for the future. Manufacturing doesn’t just support war — in a very real way, &nbsp, it’s a war in and of itself.

Democratic nations appear to be still largely in “peace mode” with regard to their economic models. They believe that manufacturing needs to be preserved and expanded in peacetime to be prepared for the resulting, growing likelihood of a major war.

Thankfully, Republicans and Democrats in America have slowed down this deadly complacency in recent years. However, the tariffs supported by the GOP and the industrial policies promoted by the Dems are only partial solutions and do not provide essential components for a military-industrial strategy.

Republicans and Democrats don’t have a comprehensive plan for winning the manufacturing war.

Three components must be included in a military-industrial strategy for the US and its allies to compete with China:

    To stop sudden surges of Chinese exports from forcibly deindustrializing other nations, China is subject to tariffs and other trade restrictions.

  1. promoting and expanding manufacturing capacity in democratic countries through industrial policy.
  2. A sizable common market outside of China for non-Chinese manufacturers to gain scale-savings.

The GOP’s tariffs-first approach achieves the first of these, but actively sabotages the third by putting tariffs on allies. The Democrats ‘ industrial policy-focused approach achieves the second goal, but it severely undercuts its own efforts with regulations and contracting restrictions.

First, let’s talk about the GOP, since Trump is about to come back into office. In his first term, Trump moved the US away from the free trade consensus and from the model of “engagement” with China. He was the first to use tariffs and export controls as economic weapons. In his second term, he’s almost certain to&nbsp, double down on tariffs.

This will help prevent a wave of subsidized Chinese imports from suddenly destroying the remaining US industries, as happened in the US solar panel industry in the 2010s. However, Trump is making a number of errors that will severely limit the impact of his tariffs.

First, he’s threatening&nbsp, broad tariffs&nbsp, on most or all Chinese goods, instead of tariffs targeted at specific, militarily useful goods. In a post two weeks ago, I explained why broad tariffs are of limited effectiveness.

Broad tariffs cause bigger&nbsp, exchange rate movements, which cancel out more of the effect of the tariffs. Putting tariffs on Chinese-made TVs, clothing, furniture, and laptops weakens the effect of tariffs on Chinese-made cars, chips, machinery, and batteries.

Second, Trump is threatening to put tariffs on US allies like&nbsp, Canada&nbsp, and&nbsp, Mexico. This will make American manufacturers less competitive with their Chinese rivals by removing the cheap parts and components they need to build things cheaply. It will also provoke retaliation from allies, limiting the markets available to American manufacturers.

As for industrial policy, Trump doesn’t seem to see the value in it. He has &nbsp, threatened to cancel the CHIPS Act, as well as&nbsp, the Inflation Reduction Act&nbsp, that subsidizes battery manufacturing.

However, tariffs cannot simply force chip and battery factories to sprout from American soil like mushrooms after the rain. Tariffs protect the domestic market but do absolutely nothing to help American manufacturers in the far larger&nbsp, global&nbsp, market, only industrial policy can do that.

Democrats do back industrial policy. And in fact, Biden’s industrial policies have been&nbsp, one of the few small successes&nbsp, that any democratic nation has had in the struggle to keep up with China’s manufacturing juggernaut. In the US, a colossal amount of factory construction is currently happening:

Although almost all of the actual money being spent is private, the construction is heavily concentrated in the industries Biden subsidized.

This is great, but the effort has been slowed by progressive policy priorities. &nbsp, Stubborn progressive defenses&nbsp, of NEPA and the American permitting regime have prevented major reform of that formidable stumbling block, while various&nbsp, onerous contracting requirements&nbsp, — the dreaded “everything bagel” — have held up construction timelines.

Even more fundamentally, progressives tend to see the point of industrial policy as&nbsp, providing jobs for factory workers, rather than in terms of national defense. Because of these, they end up providing more jobs even as they prevent anything physically from actually getting built, which makes them complacent about delays and cost overruns:

This is why some progressives oppose automation in the manufacturing industry because they claim it will destroy jobs. China, meanwhile, is racing ahead with automation, having recently&nbsp, zoomed ahead of both Japan and Germany &nbsp, in terms of the number of robots per worker, and leaving America in the dust:

Source: IFR

Meanwhile, although Democrats may become negatively polarized into opposing all tariffs ( throwing the baby out with the bathwater ), they still&nbsp, oppose measures like the TPP&nbsp, aimed at creating a common market capable of balancing China’s internal market.

In other words, neither political party in America has yet fully understood the nature, scope, or difficulty of China’s manufacturing might, or the nature of the steps required to take in order to respond.

While his progressive opponents view reindustrialization as a massive make-work program, Trump is still having the same basic protectionist dreams he had in the 1990s. Meanwhile, America’s allies overseas seem even less capable of averting their decline.

The manufacturing war is waning, and we need to start the process right away.

1 Of course, those munitions will have to be of a similar caliber, but it’s obvious that China is now technologically advanced in almost every area on par with other major powers.

2 Insert&nbsp, overused Sun Tzu quote&nbsp, here.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Yoon’s martial law stunt may cost Korea a lost decade – Asia Times

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Yoon Suk Yeol, president of South Korea, set his country’s economy back ten centuries in six days, and increased the chances that the following ten years will be lost.

The government’s urgent request to remove Yoon’s resignation and impeachment for his crazy martial law declaration later on December 3 is the focus at this time. When the dust settles, nevertheless, the actual collateral damage will be to Asia’s fourth-biggest business.

On Monday, the day before Yoon’s determined stunt, South Korea was now carrying serious existing conditions into a 2025 some Seoul policymakers despair. Between China’s decline and Donald Trump’s coming trade conflict, South Korea’s business may find itself in harm’s way first and often.

Record household debts, which is putting strain on consumer spending, complicates the way forward. Additionally, South Korea has a gender pay gap and a labor-intensive workforce that prevents technology.

Korea’s fertility level is the lowest everywhere. A handful of family-owned conglomerates, or chaebols, continue to dominate the market, making it hard for start-ups to grow and destroy the government’s export-driven development model.

And the monetary system needs major changes to end the” Korea cheap” that underestimates Kospi index prices.

Problem is, Yoon’s antics really proved traders doubting Korea’s eagerness for global night right. His government is now even more in the lame-duck area than it was three days ago, also if Yoon can prevent being impeached — a great “if.”

It’s difficult to imagine how Yoon will survive this unless something else is dropping that we haven’t already discovered,” says Eurasia Group scientist Jeremy Chan.

As ideal as we can tell, Yoon’s martial law campaign was motivated by his disappointment with opposition parties that are stymieing his plan. The issue was considerably worsened by Yoon. Hope all-out gridlock today.

This new complication in Seoul elections appeared to be apparent to The Bank of Korea. Straight after Yoon declared martial law, BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong pledged “unlimited cash” to calm industry. On Wednesday, he set up an urgent meeting to discuss how the BOK may protect the market from further political scheming.

” From a near-term plan aspect, apart from the market problems, doubt could also come in the event of government changes”, says Goldman Sachs scientist Goohoon Kwon. On Thursday, Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun resigned.

According to Bank economists, in the best-case situation,” the negative effects to the economy and financial industry may be short-lived as uncertainties on the political and economic environment may be quickly mitigated on the back of strategic policy response.”

However, Moody’s Ratings ‘ economist Anushka Shah adds that a “prolonged period of political conflict that affects economic activity and leads to work stoppages would be credit negative.”

The significance of the Korean victory, both for domestic politics and the external sector, is a key climax. The domestic political unrest will only exacerbate the bearish sentiment surrounding the Korean victory, but Alvin Tan, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, believes that the growth slowdown and potential US-China trade war in the coming year will continue to be the main drivers.

A wiser leader than Yoon might have examined his mediocre approval rating and adjusted his policies accordingly. Or create new ones that might appeal to voters and opposition parties. Instead, Yoon threw a tantrum, leaving many of Korea’s 51 million people wondering if Yoon’s support rate is way too high.

Yoon also spewed a dose of Trumpian skepticism by warning of “anti-state” militias sympathetic to North Korea’s plot against him. Not a wise choice from a leader who makes Shigeru Ishiba and Joe Biden the most well-known Americans in the world right now.

This was” an act of political desperation”, Chan says. ” It wasn’t about North Korea or social order — despite Yoon’s claims”. In the end, Chan adds, Yoon was” trying to bring all legislative proceedings to a halt” by calling on the National Assembly.

The issue is that South Korea’s government functions are squandering up at arguably the worst possible time. Along with China exporting deflation, Seoul is bracing for US President-elect Trump’s coming tariffs. Trump has threatened that the 60 % tariffs against China could be the start of a global arms race.

Trump has telegraphed 100 % taxes on automobiles made in Mexico. Car-making giants in Korea and Japan worry — for valid reasons — that they’re next.

Concerned about the fates of Hyundai, Kia and others, Yoon has been scrambling for a meeting with Trump. In a bid to get a Mar-a-Lago tee time, Yoon dusted off his golf clubs for the first time in eight years.

Yoon’s government even hired the lobbying firm Susie Wiles, the incoming White House chief of staff, worked for. The Washington embassy of Korea hired Mercury Public Affairs to build connections with the incoming White House, according to Korean media.

Trump, of course, is less of a bridge-builder than a geopolitical wrecking ball. Still, Yoon has studied up on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Trump bromance.

Abe became the first world leader to hurl a long way to New York’s Trump Tower to kiss the ring in November 2016. The stunt also caused Abe to sit next to Trump at Group of Seven meetings and other global confabs, earning him a spot there.

If Yoon looked closer, he’d see how little the late Abe got in return for his subservience. Trump ignored Abe’s pleas and still abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, a cornerstone of Japan’s effort to contain China.

Abe’s acquiescence didn’t earn Tokyo a pass on the Trump 1.0 trade war. Trump continued to try to shake down Abe for US$ 8 billion in annual payments to keep American troop levels in Japan. It didn’t stop Trump from palling around with Kim Jong Un, legitimizing North Korea’s murderous regime at the expense of Japan‘s national security.

Yet Trump 2.0 is just one of South Korea’s biggest economic challenges. The other is how the economy is bouncing off course because of its already-existing circumstances.

The first half of Yoon’s five-year term did little to raise Korea’s economic game. He’s done little, if anything, to level playing fields to help small-and-medium-sized companies grow into larger ones.

He hasn’t made any discernible progress in lowering the nation’s crippling debt, increasing worker productivity, empowering women, and raising the average income.

Yoon hasn’t been able to dispel MSCI’s reservations about Korea Inc. Yoon argued in a uniquely assertive way earlier this year that the world’s largest index company should establish South Korea as a developed nation, a designation that would entice tidal waves of global capital into won-denominated assets.

Back in March, Yoon pledged to scrap outdated regulations, loosen limits on corporate ownership, strengthen capital markets, increase currency-trading hours, boost transparency and even tolerate short sellers.

MSCI went away unimpressed. According to its analysts,” these efforts will be subject to consultation with market participants once in effect,” as they stated in June. In other words, Team Yoon needs to carry out the Big Bang without resorting to a supply-side explanation.

Unfortunately, Yoon is only the most recent leader to talk a lot of money-savings and talk little. Like his five predecessors over the last 20 years, Yoon quickly realized the difficulty and risk of clashing with Korea’s chaebol-industrial complex and demurred.

This persistent complacency comes at a high price. In any tally of major economies courting a&nbsp, Japan-like lost decade&nbsp, through complacency and political distraction, &nbsp, South Korea&nbsp, deserves a primary place. Yoon, part of this sad continuum, also let the BOK run the show.

So did Moon Jae-in, who was elected in 2017 to restore faith in the Korean economy. Moon began with a bold plan to champion” trickle-up economics”. Higher corporate taxes were included in the plan to better distribute wealth and employment opportunities.

The strategy spearheaded by Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, and Abe decades earlier had a reversed impact due to Moon’s emphasis on enriching the middle class. Yet Moon, too, saw the magnitude of the task of taming Korea Inc&nbsp, &nbsp, — and he backed off.

The same was true for Park Geun-hye, president from 2013 to 2017. Not only was she Korea’s first female president, but also the daughter of former national leader Park Chung-hee, who built the chaebol-led model that still dominates today back in the 1960s and 1970s.

Park Geun-hye took office with grand plans to dismantle her father’s economic system. She talked of devising a more” creative” model of entrepreneurship and shifting&nbsp, tax incentives&nbsp, toward startups.

Park planned, too, to strengthen antitrust enforcement&nbsp, and penalize big companies for hoarding profits that could be used to boost paychecks and fund new cutting-edge research and development.

Her father’s export-driven development strategy placed a premium on loans to domestic businesses and shielded domestic industries from global competition. The strategy borrowed from the” Asian tigers” playbook Japan had written.

Of course, Park Chung-hee’s legacy is back in the news this week. The upheaval that occurred at the time of his 1979 murder occurred at the same time as a previous declaration of martial law.

Over time, Korean officialdom was captured by the home-growth giants Park&nbsp, Chung-hee’s policies created. But once daughter Park Geun-hye settled into the presidential Blue House, 38 years after her father’s assassination, she too decided change was too difficult and risky.

Rather than upending the chaebol system, Park got co-opted. By 2017, she was &nbsp, impeached and jailed&nbsp, in a scandal involving Samsung leader Lee Jae-yong. Both have since been pardoned, much to the dismay of many Korean voters.

Before Park, Lee&nbsp, Myung-bak, president from 2008 to 2013, &nbsp, pledged to generate more economic energy from the ground up. Voters hoped that, as a former CEO of Hyundai Engineering&nbsp, and Construction, Lee had the know-how to shift growth engines away from exports toward domestic demand. Lee demurred, siding with the chaebols that produced him.

If only these leaders had swayed the wind in a significant way, Korea might not be struggling to raise its prices and compete in the era of China. Even if Yoon manages to cling to power, somehow, his odds of elevating the economy to greater heights in the 887 days he’d have left in office are slight, at best.

What Yoon has accomplished is placing South Korea in the shoes of Asian martial law enforcers in a manner that international investors won’t find appealing. These include Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand – and now South Korea.

Yoon reassured markets about the Korean discount while also bringing up a past Kospi investors would prefer not to think about, such as 1948 martial law episodes.

One silver lining:” The swift reversal of the martial law underscores the resilience of South Korea’s institutions”, write analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company.

We anticipate only temporary effects for the economy and financial markets as the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Finance have responded quickly by reassuring investors, according to BNI. Notably, the central bank has pledged to increase short-term liquidity and take steps to stabilize the FX markets, which is in line with our opinion that the risks associated with the South Korean victory should be kept under control for the time being.

Perhaps, but the effects of Yoon’s insane and selfish act may make South Korea worry about where and how all that potential was lost in a decade.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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NTT Data announces land acquisition for new data center in Johor Bahru, Malaysia

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  • For AI requirements, the service will apply liquid cooling and green designs.
  • It will grow to be one of APAC’s largest data centre colleges.

NTT Data announces land acquisition for new data center in Johor Bahru, Malaysia

NTT Data, a global pioneer in business and technology companies, announced its proposed merger of a 68.5-acre area piece in Gelang Patah, Johor Bahru.

The site will be transformed into one of the largest data center schools in the APAC region, with the addition of six distinct houses, each with a 290 megawatt ( MW) total IT load capacity. The second tower, with an original power of 48 MW, is expected to launch in April 2027.

” With APAC emerging as one of the fastest-growing areas for IT and data centres, this corporate property merger in Malaysia underscores our commitment to local development”, said Doug Adams, CEO and President of Global Data Centers, NTT Data. Due to its close proximity to Singapore, Johor Bahru is gaining an increasingly significant financial area.

Yasuo Suzuki, Executive Vice President and Managing Director for Japan and APAC at Global Data Centers, NTT Data, added,” Expanding in Gelang Patah strengthens Malaysia’s modern equipment, supports APAC economic development, fosters innovation, and creates new job opportunities”.

NTT Data now operates six features in Cyberjaya, near Kuala Lumpur, with a combined IT weight capacity of 20 MW. Using NTT Data’s regional partnerships, the new Johor Bahru initiative aims to strengthen Malaysia’s modern facilities.

To meet the growing demand for AI applications, the facility will feature energy-efficient, green designs, according to the company, which includes advanced technologies like direct liquid cooling.

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Russia rears its head vis-a-vis Philippines in South China Sea – Asia Times

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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has described the presence of a Russian attack submarine in his nation’s exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ) in the South China Sea as “very worrisome” in a potential escalation of great power rivalry there.

On November 28, a&nbsp, &nbsp, Russian Kilo-class underwater was sighted just 80 coastal miles off the eastern Spanish territory of Occidental Mindoro. &nbsp,

” That’s very concerning. Any intrusion into the West Philippine Sea, of our EEZ, of our baselines, is very worrisome”, the Filipino president told reporters on Monday ( December 2 ).

The Russian underwater soon became known as UFA 490 and clarified its non-lethal purpose when the Philippine military fleet Jose Rizal made radio contact with it in response to the incursion.

Without providing any further details, Philippine Navy spokesman Roy Vincent Trinidad stated in a speech that the Soviet vehicle” stated it was awaiting improved weather conditions before going to Vladivostok, Russia.” &nbsp,

Admiral Trinidad tried to downplay the incident as” not alarming”, in apparent contradiction to Marcos Jr’s statement, but underscored how the Philippines was” surprised because this is a very unique submarine” .&nbsp,

Russia’s official in Manila did no comment on the matter despite press inquiries. Is it still unclear whether the Russian submarine was the updated version of the Kilo II ( Project 636.3 ) submarine from 2014 to 2016?

However, according to Russian media outlets, the 74-meter ( 243-foot ) long marine asset is armed with a missile system with a range of 12, 000 kilometers (7, 450 miles ). &nbsp,

Following a combined practice with the Malay army, the Russian submarine was headed back to Vladivostok, Russia’s east town, according to Philippine National Security Council official Jonathan Malaya. The practice came on the feet of historic&nbsp, Indonesia-Russia marine drills&nbsp, in the area last month.

Spanish authorities, following contact with the ship’s crew and appropriate Russian counterparts, reported that the submarine surfaced according to weather-related conditions. &nbsp,

Judicial intrusion

Major local experts are perplexed by the incident, and the legal context surrounding the Russian vessel’s presence in Philippine waters has also raised questions. &nbsp,

An attack underwater managing clearly and clearly in the high seas ( this is outside the territorial sea ) is not much of a threat, according to the report. Channels are for cunning and walk problems, not sailing on the surface”, Jay Batongbacal, a leading sea rules analyst based in Manila, &nbsp, wrote on his&nbsp, X accounts. &nbsp,

Foreign militaries are entitled to “innocent passage” across the Exclusive Economic Zone of coastal states under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS), but doing so should not be done in vain.

And any military deployment across another state’s EEZ is no longer considered&nbsp, &nbsp, “innocent” if it represents “any threat or use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of the coastal State” .&nbsp,

The UNCLOS has a special for submarines&nbsp, ( Article 20 ), which are required to ascertain their ‘ innocent passage’ by temporarily “navigat]ing ] on the surface…to show their flag”. The majority of UNCLOS members grant their 12 nautical miles of territorial waters the right to free section.

However, major countries such as India, China and Iran have imposed&nbsp, limits on the tuberculous presence&nbsp, of extraregional power perhaps across their EEZs. &nbsp,

For two main reasons, the Philippines is especially troubling by Russia. For one, Moscow and Beijing have declared a&nbsp,” no limits” partnership&nbsp, and simultaneously called for a’ new world order’, a strong alliance that has gained greater intensity following Russia’s war of Ukraine in 2022. &nbsp,

The two nations have also stepped up their&nbsp, defense cooperation&nbsp, in East Asia, including in fiercely disputed and geopolitically delicate waters. In July of this year, they&nbsp, conducted live-fire&nbsp, marine tasks in the South China Sea.

For the Philippines, Russia could possibly strengthen China’s growing military supremacy in the region, if never directly help the Asiatic power in the event of a disaster, including over Taiwan.

The Philippines is also concerned about Marcos Jr.’s deteriorating path of diplomatic ties. Recently, then-President Rodrigo Duterte made several trips to both Beijing and Moscow in a bid to build a new proper position.

The former Filipino president even described his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, as&nbsp, his&nbsp, “favorite hero” &nbsp, and&nbsp, “idol”, &nbsp, underscoring the depth of their personal and friendly relations.

Encouraged by Duterte’s manner and sensing, Russia quickly stepped up defence cooperation with the Philippines, America’s only full-fledged common defense treaty ally in Southeast Asia.

Consequently, Russian&nbsp, vessels docked in Manila Bay for the first time in past. Duterte individually boarded one of the visiting Russian warships, where he&nbsp, called upon his friends from Moscow to remain “our ally to protect us “—yet another thinly veiled shot at the US, which was often the goal of Duterte’s criticism, sending diplomatic relations into a tailspin.

In another first, Russia also deployed&nbsp, a defense attaché&nbsp, to Manila to explore big-ticket defense deals, including&nbsp, the potential purchase&nbsp, of submarines. The strategic flirtation&nbsp, culminated in Russia’s delivery of firearms to the Philippine National Police ( PNP ), which Washington sanctioned over its human rights record, and a&nbsp, record$ 227 deal for acquisition of Russian helicopters.

However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Duterte’s subsequent exit from office ushered in a new era of tensions between Manila and Moscow. While Duterte&nbsp, distanced himself&nbsp, from Putin’s war of aggression, his successor Marcos Jr punitively nixed a Russian Mi-17 helicopter deal in favor of American kit. &nbsp,

Throughout the ongoing war, the Philippines has also repeatedly voted in favor of Ukraine on important UN resolutions, much to Russia’s chagrin. Additionally, Marcos Jr. accepted an invitation to a Western-backed” Peace Summit” earlier this year in order to gain international support for Kyiv and was one of the few regional leaders to personally host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. &nbsp,

The Ukrainian leader thanked the Philippine leadership for its” clear position” on Russia’s “occupation of our territories” and&nbsp, sought non-lethal assistance&nbsp, from the Philippines, especially in terms of healthcare professionals and post-war recovery.

Indeed, in many ways, Marcos Jr has positioned the Philippines as a core member of an emerging “alliance of democracies” facing off against the non-Western powers of Moscow and Beijing. &nbsp,

Russia flexing regional muscles

Putin’s Russia has withstanded a first round of Western sanctions and battlefield assaults, as evidenced by his earlier this year visits to Mongolia, North Korea, and Vietnam.

Russia is also determined to keep its footing in the regional defense markets while increasing joint exercises and military exports to numerous Asian nations, including Southeast Asia. &nbsp,

Russia and the Philippines may be on a collision course with the deployment of advanced missile systems in the future, especially as Washington makes preparations for possible conflicts with China over Taiwan.

In response to the Philippines ‘&nbsp, decision to semi-permanently host, &nbsp, if not purchase, the much-vaunted&nbsp, US Typhon missile system in its northern bases, China’s defense spokesperson, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, accused Manila of “intensif]ying ] geopolitical confrontation and escalat]ing ] tensions in the region”.

The Philippines should reconsider hosting American weapons systems, which have the capability to target southern Chinese military bases, has been reiterated by China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ).

This week saw a full display of geopolitical tensions when the Philippine and the Chinese maritime forces engaged in yet another incident close to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, with each side giving contradictory accounts of the near-clash.

Earlier this year, Russia warned Japan against deploying US-made missile units to&nbsp, Japan’s southwestern Kagoshima and Okinawa prefectures, which are close to Taiwan. Russia will consider deploying short- and intermediate-range missiles on its eastern borders in response to any significant US-backed missile buildup, according to deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov. &nbsp,

Earlier this year, the Russian president also warned America’s” satellite state” allies to reconsider hosting any major American missile system. It is well known that the United States produces these missile systems and has already tested them in Denmark and Europe for exercises. Quite recently, it was announced that they are in the Philippines” .&nbsp,

The Philippines ‘ decision to host the US Typhon missile system and possibly even acquire it will likely stoke a tussle with Beijing as well as Moscow, which is averse to any significant US buildup on its eastern and western flanks.

The Philippines is suddenly at the center of a new Cold War conflict between China, Russia, and its authoritarian allies on one side and the US and its democratic allies on the other.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

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Quiet surge: China’s AI innovators doing more with less – Asia Times

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This is not a new trend, but a rise in presentations over the past few months confirms that Chinese models are also reshaping local and international dynamics and bringing about new concepts.

While the West frequently revels in the fruits of significant advances in artificial intelligence, China is also experiencing a rapid development that is both innovation and need.

To get an idea of the pace, this record the announcements from the past few weeks:

Company Model/ Solution Date Announced Important Features Significance
Alibaba Cloud Qwen-72B Quick Nov 2024 72B guidelines- Open-source- Multilingual- Advanced MoE- State-of-the-art logic performance Reinforces Alibaba’s result in the LLM area, offers a strong open-source alternative
Tencent HunYuan Video Nov 28, 2024 13B parameters- Text-to-video generation- Contrastive Video-Language Alignment ( CVLA )- Open-source A major step forward in movie era capabilities, democratizing access through empty source
Baidu iRAG Nov 12, 2024 Text-to-image era- Minimizes hallucinations using research features Increases the precision of AI-generated pictures
DeepSeek DeepSeek-R1-Lite-Preview Nov 20, 2024 Reasoning-focused design-” Chain-of-thought” reasoning- Matches Western concepts ‘ performance Shows a strong emphasis on logic, effectiveness, and keeping up with world standards
Bytedance Doubao Ongoing Doubao-PixelDance and Doubao-Seaweed for video technology- Possible integration with TikTok emphasizes Bytedance’s proficiency in blending LLMs with social media content development
JD.com ChatJD Sept 2024 E-commerce marketing- Interactive assistance- Sector-specific applications drives e-commerce development with LLMs that are focused on customer needs

China’s overlooked creativity path

Foreign types have been in synch with the West for a while, if not right away. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Its development has resulted in numerous groundbreaking contributions that were widely recognized much later and included in the tools of more well-known European modelers. Their strategy to AI has constantly been about finding fresh pathways prioritizing performance, scalability and utility.

Wu Dao 2.0, released in May 2021, is a perfect example of this first administration. It outperformed some European models of the time in terms of multimodal AI, integrating text and image control on a scale of 1.75 trillion parameters.

Beyond Wu Dao, Huawei’s Pangu-α type, introduced in 2021, exemplified China’s focus on developing resource-efficient AI. Pangu-α was among the first to show that large-scale speech models may be optimized for performance, paving the way for comparable global trends. Additionally, Bindu made a significant contribution with its first bidirectional AI models, which incorporated both visible and language capabilities. All of these were well ahead of other related developments in the West.

The latest inventions continue this pattern of pioneering techniques that will likely be replicated, if no emulated, worldwide. For instance, Tencent’s Hunyuan Video model utilizes Contrastive Video-Language Alignment ( CVLA ) to achieve impressive quality in video generation, an area where efficiency is often a key challenge.

However, DeepSeek’s” chain-of-thought” argument capabilities have drastically improved understanding of complex causes, underlining the first implementation and refinement of techniques.

Of training, China has lagged in various fields. In the patentless earth, its model manufacturers have adopted a lot more innovation than those made in the US and abroad. The critical point is that they, too, have innovated, and their inventions need more focus now because of their different focus. &nbsp,

Regulatory considerations: shaping safe and managed technology

Due to China’s special regulatory environment, Chinese developers are forced to find creative ways to meet these requirements. Artificial models are required to control generated glad in regulations, preventing potentially harmful or unwanted outputs.

This requirement has resulted in the development of sophisticated methods like responsive sign dropping, which maximize model effectiveness while successfully managing resource allocation and ensuring that models follow regulatory guidelines.

The incorporation of censorship systems into AI models is another element of regulation compliance. These functions, while provocative, function to align AI result with local rules.

Such systems could be adapted worldwide for email filtering, hazardous material restraint, and cybersecurity. The Chinese’s emphasis on safe operation and controlled outputs might help develop more stable AI systems around the world.

Hardware considerations: evolving amid minimal resources

Foreign developers have had to contend with limited exposure to cutting-edge equipment, such as innovative GPUs. These restrictions have encouraged technology and encouraged businesses to do more with less. This has resulted in improvements in how to use technology effectively and a focus on creating software that makes the most of the available technology.

For instance, Baidu adapted its Ernie concepts to work properly on Kunlun bits, while Alibaba optimized its Qwen designs for Huawei’s Ascend computers. These adjustments demonstrate how carefully combined software and hardware can transcend limitations and deliver high-quality performance.

This emphasis on maximizing output from limited resources is ingenuity and is in line with international concerns about the cost of developing AI in terms of both environmental and economic terms.

Recent advancements in the design of Sparse-Layered Models ( SLMs) and Mixture of Experts ( MoE ) architectures have further improved the capacity of Chinese AI systems to function effectively despite hardware limitations.

Alibaba’s Qwen-72B, for example, utilizes an innovative MoE infrastructure that activates just a set of design parameters during assumption. This approach—supposedly an advancement over MOE work globally—reduces mathematical weight while maintaining high performance.

Also, agentic developments, such as Baichuan AI’s Baixiaoying helper, include features that make interactions more effective by leveraging Sparse-MoE methods. Given that limited technology does not significantly affect the quality of user interactions or mathematical efficiency, these models are designed to be both resource-aware and extremely flexible.

DeepSeek’s decline in key running costs to 1 RMB per million currencies illustrates another feature of this constraint-driven technology. Although more research is required, this strategy points to a convincing trend in cost-effective AI and sets precedents for affordability that could be crucial as AI continues to expand internationally.

Focusing on software: the real-world influence of Chinese AI

Chinese AI improvements have excelled at concentrating on real-world applications that target market needs. Foreign companies have focused on specific areas where AI can have an immediate impact, in contrast to Western trends to grow LLM capabilities for general-purpose employ. This method has led to major mobility, robotics, medical, and e-commerce advances.

BYD is integrating LLMs for sophisticated message assistants and intelligent driving features, making them more user-friendly and customized driving activities. &nbsp, In automation, Foreign LLMs are driving developments in human-robot conversation. These advancements enable more efficient computerized systems that function flawlessly with human users.

Aside from such cobots, businesses like Geek and Hai Robotics apply AI-powered robots for inventory technology. Robots were created by Elephant Robotics to provide old treatment. A host of businesses are using&nbsp, AI-powered drones and drones for tasks like produce blasting, seeding, and field monitoring aside from planting.

For medical applications, Baidu’s iRAG device has shown significant success in improving the reliability of AI in health imaging by reducing hallucinations—an vital step in enhancing medical accuracy.

After the latest NY Times article that demonstrated AI types ‘ incredible diagnostic accuracy compared to skilled doctors, Baidu has been constantly developing ERNIE Bot 4.0 for health consultation. The regulatory obstacles may be lower for China. &nbsp,

The chemical structure of 1.7 billion drug-like molecules in the market has been learned by Huawei’s Pangu drug molecule model. Huawei anticipates the model to act as a virtual chemist, assisting researchers in developing and identifying novel molecules that are likely to interact with drug targets, and lowering R&amp, D costs by over 70 %.

Chinese models are also notable for their emphasis on accessibility. Tools like Baidu’s Miaoda no-code AI application builder make it easier to create AI-powered solutions, enabling smaller businesses without specialized technical teams to harness the power of LLMs. &nbsp,

Tencent is utilizing HunYuan Pro’s AI capabilities to streamline game development processes. The model can assist with tasks like generating game dialogue, creating non-player characters ( NPCs ) with realistic behaviors, and generating game levels and environments.

A different path to global benefit

In all innovation centers, AI models and applications are created globally. Chinese AI innovation demonstrates a different path toward technological advancement, where creativity is fueled by constraints and efficiency is the driving force behind progress.

Chinese AI developers have transformed constraints in their regulatory environment and resources into opportunities rather than just adaptation. Their emphasis on application, efficiency, and adaptability forms a valuable counterbalance to the Western focus on scaling and capability expansion.

Most importantly, there is a remarkable pick-up in the announcements of late. In end-user-affecting changes like TikTok’s latest features, Tencent changing the accessibility in WeChat, or Baidu’s glasses, Chinese innovations are also reaching end-users rapidly.

Even after reading reports from the media and analyst circles, it may seem as though nothing is happening with the Chinese tech companies in the AI space. None of these are likely to be ignored by the markets for very long.

In the future, especially when we discuss Korea, we will come back to the negative effects of the inability to cause excitement, although this is also true for China.

Nilesh Jasani is an LC GenInnov Fund investor based in Singapore.

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What to expect next out of suddenly unhinged South Korea – Asia Times

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Yoon Suk Yeol, the president of South Korea, declared martial law on Tuesday evening, sending ripples through the earth.

Yoon’s competitors in the National Assembly soon gathered at the government to protest the order. This caused a serious conflict in which soldiers took command of the structure.

However, in the early time of Wednesday, adequate numbers of South Vietnamese legislators gained access to the room. Of the 300 people, 190 made it in, which is far more than the 150 needed for the voting to take place. They overwhelmingly voted down the government’s purchase at around 1 am.

However, around the government, Yoon’s competitors continued to accumulate in a tense standoff with defense.

By about 4:30 am, Yoon had formally acknowledged that his effort had failed and that the military forces had already left. The order may been rescinded. It put an end to a president-to-the-National Assembly’s brief but significant constitutional issue.

Important political freedoms are suspended by military law, which enables the military to training more authority in times of war or serious threats to public safety.

A order by Yoon’s just empowered martial law chief, Army Chief of Staff General Park An-su, proclaimed:

]… ] all political activities, including those related to the National Assembly, regional assemblies, political parties, the forming of political organisations, rallies and protests are banned.

Additionally, this martial law decree placed severe restrictions on the press’s liberty and put an end to an ongoing strike by young South Korean doctors.

But, little immediate attempt was made to adopt the order. As a result, criticism activity was frequently reported in real-time.

Why was military laws declared?

Yoon defended the military law by accusing his domestic political rivals of “anti-state actions plotting revolt.”

He asserts that he was shielding “pro North Korean forces” from the law. This is a facetious term that some South Korean conservatives often use against their liberal foes.

Decades of domestic political conflict between the North Korean head and the opposition-dominated National Assembly provide abroader perspective for this decision.

Yoon cited his detractors ‘ repeated attempts to remove senior members of his leadership and their blocking of budget policy as additional justification for martial law.

Who is South Korea’s leader?

In 2022, Yoon won with a extremely unpopular lot. He’s immediately seen a range of social corruption scandals, further depleting his help.

According to recent polls, he only receives about 25 % of the Asian public’s opinion.

After a number of embarrassing scandals involving alleged fraud, tensions rose especially between Yoon’s woman and South Korea’s first woman, Kim Keon-hee, who had formally apologized for their behavior in early November.

Legacy of dictatorship

Senate is undoubtedly in order, especially if South Koreans turn out in large quantities over the upcoming trip to demand that Yoon’s term be overthrown.

South Korea has made significant progress in political merger since the change to democratic rule in 1987, with a solid and engaged civil society.

At the same time, there is a lengthy history of scandal, impeachment and yet reported criminality among Korea’s democratically elected president.

Most recently in 2017, original President Park Geun-hye’s term in office ended shortly after public demonstrations and prosecution around an influence-peddling incident.

In 2018, Park was given a lengthy prison sentence for relevant acts. In 2021, she received a pardon from her leader.

On the one hand, the effective antagonism to Yoon’s military laws decree has demonstrated the political resilience of South Korea’s organizations and social traditions.

Critics of military rules included the mind of Yoon’s conservative People Power Party, Han Dong-hoon, who denounced the government’s order as “wrong” and promised he do” prevent it with the people”.

But for some of Yoon’s competitors, his strength capture was an all too common reminder of the region’s mid-20th-century tradition of conservative, military-led law.

What will happen next?

In South Korea’s current democratic period, military legislation was first enacted.

The country’s money and marketplaces may experience immediate financial damage, but its hard-won reputation as a stable and mature democracy may suffer a significant blow.

While the immediate constitutional crises has then receded, the political problems remains. Issues have now turned to Yoon’s potential.

The president’s main opposition party has vowed to launch a proper prosecution investigation unless he resigns right away.

Alexander M Hynd is a doctoral study fellow, UNSW Sydney

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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