Can TikTok’s owner afford to lose its killer app?

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A group of teens look at a photograph they took on a smartphone in Times Square in New York CityGetty Images
By Kelly Ng
BBC News

US lawmakers will vote this weekend on a second bill in as many months that corners TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance with a stark choice – sell its US business or be banned.

Fears that data about millions of Americans could land in China’s hands have driven Congressional efforts to split TikTok from the Beijing-based company.

TikTok has said ByteDance “is not an agent of China or any other country”. And ByteDance insists it’s not a Chinese firm, pointing to the many global investment firms that own 60% of it.

But the app’s extraordinary success in the US has made it yet another flashpoint between Washington and Beijing.

Some 170 million Americans spend at least an hour of their day swiping on TikTok. That includes about six in 10 teenagers, a fifth of whom say they are on it “almost constantly”, according to Pew Research Center. More than 40% of US users say it’s their regular source of news.

A ban on TikTok could be challenged as a violation of free speech. It’s also difficult to police and possibly unpalatable in an election year. While forcing ByteDance to sell the app is seemingly simpler, that option also faces obstacles.

For one, analysts say Beijing will try its best to scupper a sale. But who will buy TikTok’s US operations, which, by some estimates, could fetch up to $100bn (£80.2bn)?

And the biggest question of all: Would ByteDance sell its most successful app?

Tick tock

Founded in 2012 by Chinese entrepreneurs, ByteDance first hit the jackpot with short video app Douyin in China. A year later, it launched TikTok, an international version. TikTok was banned in China but gained a billion users in five years.

It is now run by a limited liability company based in Los Angeles and Singapore but is essentially owned by ByteDance. While its founders own only 20% of ByteDance, it’s the controlling stake in the company. About 60% is owned by institutional investors, including major US investment firms such as General Atlantic, Susquehanna and Sequoia Capital. The remaining 20% is owned by employees around the world. Three of its five board members are American.

TikTok content creators protest against a potential ban outside the US Capitol

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But Beijing’s grip over private companies in recent years worries the US about how much control the Chinese Communist Party has over ByteDance, and the data it holds. These concerns are not unfounded. Last year, a former ByteDance employee alleged in a lawsuit that Beijing had accessed TikTok user data in 2018 to spy on pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong – ByteDance dismissed this as “baseless”.

The US has been cracking down on China’s massive footprint on its soil as intelligence officials increasingly warn of espionage, surveillance and hacks. In 2022, Washington banned the sale and import of communication devices from five Chinese companies, including Huawei and ZTE. Now, the suspicion has spread to infrastructure such as Chinese-made cranes that are common in US ports, including those used by the military.

Beijing has dismissed these concerns as American paranoia and has warned that a TikTok ban will “inevitably come back to bite the US”.

Since 2022, TikTok has been routing all US users’ data through Texas-based technology giant Oracle to address security concerns. TikTok has stressed US data will be ringfenced and stored on Oracle servers in the US.

TikTok’s Singaporean CEO Shou Zi Chew was grilled by Congress twice in less than a year, and downplayed the app’s connection – and his personal links – to Chinese authorities. His repeated reminders that he was Singaporean, and not Chinese, went viral. And he said after the House vote that TikTok “will continue to do all [they] can, including exercising [their] legal rights” to protect US users’ access to the app. TikTok pointed to his statement in response to the BBC’s queries.

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Despite ByteDance’s attempts to reassure Washington, the US House of Representatives voted in March to give ByteDance six months to sell TikTok to non-Chinese owners, or have the app blocked in the US. That bill is still pending Senate approval. On Saturday they are expected to vote again on the same measure – except this time it’s bundled with other bills that promise aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

The newer version gives ByteDance nine months to decide TikTok’s fate – if the Senate passes it and if the chances for a sale look promising, President Joe Biden can further extend the deadline by another 90 days. Mr Biden has already said he would sign it into law when it reaches his desk.

Putting a price on TikTok

Valuing TikTok for a sale is tricky.

As a privately-owned company, it does not release financial details, but reports estimate its US revenue stood between $16bn to $20bn in 2023, making up as much as 16% of ByteDance’s revenue.

“In a normal market, it won’t be hard to fetch a $100bn valuation. However, under the current political risks and lack of liquidity, the valuation would take a big hit if a transaction does happen,” said Li Jianggan, who runs Singapore-based venture capital firm Momentum Works.

In other words, it would be akin to a distress sale, a further blow for ByteDance’s bottom line.

Photo illustration of a teenager using TikTok on her mobile phone

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And arm-twisting ByteDance will not work, analysts say.

“It will just shut down [in the US] rather than make a few billion dollars,” said Ling Vey-Sern, an adviser for Asia technology at Swiss private bank Union Bancaire Privée.

A ban would still allow it to return “when circumstances change, while a sale means a more definite outcome”, Mr Li said.

The US wouldn’t be the first to block TikTok – India banned the app in 2020, citing security concerns. But TikTok survived that ban because the Indian market, which was then about as big as the US market is now, wasn’t as profitable, said Jayanth N Kolla, founder of technology advisory firm Convergence Catalyst.

The US is now TikTok’s largest market, accounting for about 17% of its total users, and its most lucrative. “If TikTok were to lose its US operations, it is not just losing the user base, but a large portion of its revenue pie. That’s an immense loss,” Mr Kolla said.

Who wants TikTok?

For one, not many companies can afford to buy TikTok. And those with deep enough pockets, such as Meta or Alphabet, could be stymied by anti-competition laws.

The other major obstacle is whether the deal will include TikTok’s so-called recommendation engine. The AI-driven secret sauce that feeds content to users is crucial to the app’s success.

When the US last tried to force a sale in 2020, ByteDance said the addictive algorithm, which it owns, was not on the table. But selling TikTok without the algorithm would neither allay Washington’s concerns nor attract buyers.

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The algorithm is the “most contentious” part of any deal, Mr Li said. “Any potential acquirer just buying TikTok’s user base and content will probably be looking for a heavy discount.”

And replicating it is hard because analysts say companies like that operate in China are far better at targeting users. They have a huge market to tap into, which means AI models have more information and practice to get better. Companies can also mine more data because regulation is weak and the Community Party itself runs a sophisticated surveillance state.

A sale also leaves open the question of how a US-owned TikTok interacts with the app elsewhere. “Imagine if TikTok [users from outside the US] want to send TikToks to the US,” said Anupam Chander, a law professor specialising in global tech regulation at Georgetown Law.

“How do we know that isn’t Chinese propaganda? Do we now have to prevent foreign accounts from being seen by Americans? That begins to sound a lot more like what China did a quarter-century ago.”

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Sydney mall attack: Confronting pro-Kremlin troll on false claims Jewish student was killer

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Simeon Boikov, known online as Aussie Cossack, raising first in front of Russian flagAussie Cossack
By Marianna Spring
Propaganda and social media editor

” I always falsely suggested something,” Simeon Boikov tells me.

He posted unfounded rumors that a 20-year-old Hebrew university student was the one who fatally stabbed and killed five people and one man in Sydney under the alter self” Aussie Cossack.”

On X, he stated,” Unverified reports identify the Bondi perpetrator as Benjamin Cohen. Cohen? Actually? And to believe that so many observers first tried to blame Muslims. “

The real attacker, shot dead by authorities, was later identified as Joel Cauchi, 40. According to the government, his steps were most likely to do with his mental state.

The false allegations that Mr. Boikov amplified had already been made by hundreds of thousands of people on X and Telegram within days of his posting on X, and one federal news outlet also repeated them.

Because I want to know how his articles sparked a media frenzy, with serious consequences for Mr. Cohen, who has described his agony over being accused of an attack he had nothing to do, I tracked him down.

Mr. Boikov is speaking to me from the Australian consul where he fled more than a year earlier after an arrest warrant was issued for an alleged abuse. Vladimir Putin, a pro-Kremlin social internet character, was granted Russian membership last year and has since requested political asylum in Russia.

The brand Benjamin Cohen was not mentioned by him as the first time. It appeared to have come from a small account that shared almost entirely anti-Israel information.

One of the current methods for spreading propaganda is this.

According to Marc Owen-Jones, a specialist in online disinformation, “it’s less obvious and dubious than if a well-known and influential partisan account was to tweet it first.”

” Then more organized accounts can apply this’seeded’ tale as if it’s a legitimate audio music, and claim they are just’reporting’ what’s being said online. “

Another more extensive records suggested that the attack had some connection to Israel or Gaza before Aussie Cossack’s comments on X.

However, those were the first to go viral with Mr. Cohen’s brand.

That’s because he purchased a blue tick, which placed his content before other users and appeared higher up people’s feeds, even those who did n’t follow him.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and NSW Premier Chris Minns (3rd and 4th from left) were among those laying flowers

Getty Images

The first article racked up more than 400,000 views, according to X’s personal data- before authorities identified the attacker as Cauchi, no Benjamin Cohen. Following that, Aussie Cossack posted a similar picture to the one that shows the real perpetrator, Cauchi, standing next to a picture of Mr. Cohen in a subsequent post on X.

On Telegram, he even posted a screengrab of Mr Cohen’s LinkedIn site, revealing where he worked and studied.

However, Mr. Boikov, who spoke to me, emphasizes the skepticism in his tweet, saying that he was the” first large platform to inform this is unconfirmed.”

He suggests that” the hundreds of thousands of people who saw my content” pointed out the unverified nature of the state.

However, many people ‘ website responses to his posts appear to have viewed it in a different way and assumed Mr. Cohen was the source of the attack.

I questioned Mr. Boikov about how his posts had allegedly fabricated hundreds of thousands of lies, seriously harming the pupil at its heart. This occurred as people were grieving for loved people who were killed in the attack, and still are.

” Sorry, love, you’re doing that right now,” he said. You’re talking about the speculating of a phony state, and you’re writing a piece about it. “

Communicate in profit

Whether or not it is true that Mr. Boikov’s is one of the hundreds of very effective X accounts that now routinely share content in this manner.

Users can acquire a” share of the revenue” generated by advertising from their posts under X’s new rules, since Elon Musk purchased the social media business.

Aussie Cossack’s messages were taken up and recirculated by dozens of other records, some of whom had a history of spreading false information. Some people frequently post articles that disparage Israel or discuss the Gaza War.

Immediately, these false charges spread to various social media platforms.

When I was looking through the articles related to the murdering on Saturday night, TikTok suggested that I hunt for” Benjamin Cohen” on several films of the attack.

When I looked through the remarks, I discovered they were rife with his name before the authorities had established the attacker’s true personality.

” The suspect’s title is Benjamin Cohen IDF Soldier,” one user wrote. Their consideration had no articles, and no report picture. I sent a text. No answer.

” Shame he’s a Jew right? Why do n’t the media outlets label him? Another user posted a picture of persons running through the mall. When I messaged this one to inquire about its responses, it blocked me.

Repeated by media network

Where these accounts are based ca n’t be definitively confirmed. They consistently post controversial remarks and lack any identifying features that resemble authentic profiles.

The BBC has yet to respond to the BBC’s requests for comment. X, Telegram, and TikTok have not yet responded.

Worryingly, the debate was picked up by American media shop 7News, which named Benjamin Cohen as the “40-year-old lone wolf intruder”. The negative aspects of their document added to the fire online.

7News after retracted the statement and apologised, attributing it to “human problem”.

However, by this point, racist threats were being made toward Benjamin Cohen, who had described the incident as being “highly disconcerting and unsatisfactory to myself and my household.” He has expressed surprise that perhaps a major media outlet had identified him despite being constantly falsely accused on social advertising.

His father Mark Cohen defended his brother on X while the social media panic was taking place. He requested New South Wales Police to reveal the identity of the intruder, saying that “providing false information that it was my brother would cause more harm.”

Post on X by Mark Cohen reading: "Hey @nswpolice you need to release the name of the Bondi junction attacker before this nonsense claiming it was my son causes more harm."

X

In parallel, misleading statements were circulating that the intruder was Muslim. These were shared by well-known political figures and reporters on X with hundreds of thousands of supporters from the UK to the US.

The murder were “another terror assault by another Islamist terrorist,” according to American journalist and broadcaster Julia Hartley-Brewer, and TV presenter Rachel Riley referred to them as” a Global Intifada.” Eventually, they both retracted their content.

Hartley-Brewer posted that she had been “incorrect” and that the Sydney massacre “was not an Islamist terror attack”, while Riley said she was” sorry” if her message had been “misunderstood”.

Additionally, numerous Twitter accounts make false claims about the attacker’s religion. I messaged several of them- but they have n’t responded.

New South Wales Police have suggested the actual attacker, Cauchi, consciously targeted females- who make up five out of six of the patients.

Numerous online forums dedicated to the incels, a culture that defines themselves as incapable of getting a physical partner despite desire, have praised Cauchi as one of their own for the assault.

There is currently, however, no concrete proof that Cauchi is directly involved in these virtual activities. When questioned about Cauchi’s potential use of force against women, his father responded that his brother had “wanted a girl” and that he had” no social skills and was frustrated out of his mind.”

This kind of societal media frenzy, where misinformation is incredibly prevalent, is growing in frequency as problems in the real world occur.

This dangerous rumor mill is seriously harming the people, companions, and innocent bystanders who have been killed.

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Turkey’s economy paying the price for years of policy mishaps – Asia Times

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For many years, it was n’t the economy that determined voting behavior in Turkey. The government’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, won almost every vote he contested despite a deteriorating economic outlook.

The importance of identity politics in a nation that has seen polarization from Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development ( AK) Party’s policies over the course of its 22 years in power is frequently explained.

But, Erdogan’s run came to a screeching halt on Sunday, March 31 following Turkey’s regional votes. His AK Party lost the common ballot for the first time since 2002, and the main opposition party won in important locations like Istanbul and Ankara.

The reason why this time was different is largely due to the enormous accumulated fees from years of careless coverage that are now beginning to pay off in a major way.

What was the country’s economic viewpoint as they cast ballots, then?

On March 21, Turkey’s central bank raised interest rates quickly to 50 %. The rate increase was the most recent in a line of price increases to occur since Erdogan’s re-election as president in May 2023. The central bank’s determination to combat runaway inflation, which is currently hovering close to 70 %, was shown in the media.

The rising interest rates have received a lot of positive feedback as a much-needed change from the overly conventional economic plan. Erdogan’s innovative policy stance stemmed from his steadfast belief that raising interest rates may lead to more inflation rather than a decrease.

The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused prices to ascend worldwide. Turkey went on an interest rate lowering binge while nearly every key bank raised interest rates in response. The increase in home prices was attributed to the artificially low interest rates that were kept low, making Turkey an prices champion on par with Argentina and Venezuela.

Decoupling from another emerging markets

Emerging industry have shown surprisingly strong resilience in the face of the world’s economic strain. Some emerging economies, unlike in the past, have avoided significant fluctuations in their exchange rates, have never experienced debt distress, and had managed to maintain prices.

One cause for this is the achievement of emerging economies in enhancing their plan systems, especially by promoting the freedom of their central banks. More particularly, central bankers in these countries have tremendously improved their conversation and accountability, and have become much better at prediction inflation.

In consequence, developed nations like Chile, the Czech Republic, and South Africa have outperformed their rivals.

Unfortunately, Turkey was an exception in this circle. The nation has entirely abandoned its economic policy’s independence to the point where its central bank has had six distinct governors in the last five decades.

Politics also played a disproportional part in the development of monetary policy. Changes to the Greek law, which were put in place in 2018, gave Erdoğan considerable executive powers to press for very nice spending ahead of the 2023 national elections.

The minimum wage increased significantly, and expensive pension plans and subventional cover tasks were implemented. Normally, this increase in public spending was a result of the inflationary pressures that were already brewing.

Turkey’s central banks is then forced to raise rates while others are just beginning the easing period because of its outcast position in loose monetary policy, which cut rates between 2021 and 2023 while everyone else was tightening.

Why does this problem?

Most nations believe that getting economic plan right is important. But it matters more for nations like Turkey, which are incredibly open to trade and financial moves and whose home economy’s exchange price movements are a major factor of fluctuation.

The Turkish lira is one of the biggest losers of Erdogan’s unconventional economic policy. The value of the zloty has significantly decreased over the past six years in relation to the US dollar. In January 2018, you may have needed to part with 3.76 liras to order one US dollars. Now, this number stands at 31.9 liras.

The Greek economy suffers from significant swings in the value of the lira for a variety of reasons.

First, a major component of Turkey’s imports are inputs used in the manufacturing process, especially of vehicles, machinery and electrical devices that make up nearly half of the government’s exports. Any increase in the value of the lira may increase the cost of production and, consequently, the price of exports, which will lower the government’s profitability.

Next, Turkey imports a large portion of its power from abroad. In much the same method, any loss of the lira may increase the cost of importing strength.

Third, Turkey has significant foreign money obligations. This increases the cost of the lira’s loss perhaps more. Any decline in its price increases the amount of resources needed to pay back a certain amount of foreign currency responsibilities.

Turkish lira banknotes and coins.
Over the past six times, the lira’s worth has drastically decreased. Photo: hikrcn / Shutterstock via The Talk

Turkey’s transfer to more conservative economic plan is good news. However, the plan shifts that have been made are insufficient to turn the tables on its business, especially in the fight against inflation because it is so long overdue. Constant inflationary pressures have made it more expensive for people to buy overseas coin, adding even more pressure on the lira.

The government have had to lose significant amounts of foreign currency reserves to stop the lira from depreciating more as a result of a decline in foreign cash inflows. Similar to the sharp increase in interest rates on March 21, and as the cost the nation is willing to pay for its previous coverage blunders, should be seen in this context.

More importantly, Turkey has n’t implemented any substantive institutional reform plans in the last almost a year, which is unacceptable.

You have look no further than the current resilience of other emerging economies for evidence if you need to know whether strong and independent policy institutions improve economic efficiency.

Brazil, for example, has n’t just rebounded strongly from the pandemic. It is able to control inflation and has one of the world’s best-performing economies.

Gulcin Ozkan is Professor of Finance, King’s College London

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Hard stats on Myanmar’s revolutionary psyche – Asia Times

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What do Myanmar’s citizens actually think about the country’s future and the restrictive, ineffective military regime? There is an industry of hypothesis, fallacious logic and hyperbole that usually masquerades as information into the region’s political relationships. &nbsp,

A only- released report,” Citizens ‘ perceptions of recent political and military conflicts”, provides some many- needed rigor in measuring what Myanmar’s varied and embattled communities think of the crisis.

In the three years following the military coup in February 2021, the Blue Shirt Initiative has produced one of the most reliable common opinion polls. Although it may not offer any solutions, it is an intriguing collection of observations about a frailt world.

The experts surveyed 2, 892 individuals in a full of 233 townships, out of 330 country- large, between soon February to early March. The report has five main sections: “perceptions of democracy and democratic values, perception of the current conflicts, trust in institutions, perception of Operation 1027, ( and ) information source of political news”.

The study also includes gender and age failures, as well as physical differences between ethnic groups, which are primarily Bamar Buddhist, and Yangon, which at times suggests intriguing regional variations.

Due to the widespread issue, there is an asymmetrical spread of respondents, particularly in northern Shan state ( where the Operation 1027 unpleasant occurred in late October ), several pieces of Sagaing Region, most of Rakhine status and much of Karen position.

Although this certainly places limitations on the findings, it’s important to consider how some areas in Myanmar were able to participate, including the majority of Magwe, Mandalay, Yangon, the Irrawaddy Delta, and a large portion of Shan, Chin and Mon says.

Of those surveyed, 79 % claimed to be interested in elections, a rise from 2020 when elections ahead of that year’s votes suggested growing disillusionment about social issues. 86 % like Myanmar to be a complete democracy, a good obtaining, but tempered by very low anticipation the state will achieve that any time soon.

Where would you put our country in the next five years, in the opinion of almost half of the respondents? Similarly, lamentable was fairly lukewarm support for women’s participation in politics.

53 % of respondents think the country is “heading in the wrong direction”, with a still puzzling 8 % thinking it’s going in the “right direction”. Unsurprisingly, 39 % of respondents chose not to respond, which highlights the urgency of many of the survey’s issues and the understandable reluctance of many people in Myanmar to respond to such questions. The suggestion that fear is widespread is one of the survey’s most alarming features.

80 % said” (s ) tronger anti- coup and federal democracy movements” and” the role of the Ethnic Armed Organizations ( EAOs ) in the democracy movement are headed in the right direction”.

The recently passed military service law has shaken Myanmar society, with 73 % of respondents saying it will cause the conflicts to escalate. Since the law was passed in the first few days of February, active forced conscription measures have been implemented in 172 townships in Myanmar, according to a map produced by Data for Myanmar in late March.

Only 10 % of people believe the conflict will be over in the next six months or a year, according to forecasts on how long it will continue. It will continue for more than three years, according to 20 %. Nearly half of the respondents declined to respond. This suggests that there is more optimism than there is about the upcoming victory of resistance forces outside Myanmar. Some victory lap observers ought to carefully read this section.

The coup’s corrosive effect is described in the survey as a whole in Myanmar. Interpersonal trust has all but evaporated. According to 84 % of respondents, people “need to be cautious in dealing with people.” Although only a small percentage claimed to have no problem with people of different ethnies or religions living next door, which, if true, is progress, half the population did n’t want alcoholics or drug addicts as neighbors.

There is a marked decrease in” no answer” responses when addressing social issues, which are cited as “increase in commodity prices (83 % ), rise in crimes (79 % ), lack of job opportunities ( 76 % ), increased drug use and gambling ( 73 % ), and increase in corruption ( 73 % ).

In many Yangon neighborhoods, suspected drug users or petty criminals are escorted up and displayed on lamp posts with a warning sign around their necks to serve as an example. Although the armed conflict in the countryside may have had different effects on cities, the breakdown in law and order has become its own war zone because the military and police now act in public as bandits.

A decrease in income registered in the mid- high 80 % spectrum across geography, gender and age. Similar was loss of job, difficulty accessing education and, most alarmingly, deterioration of mental health, with 86 % in ethnic states and for women, and 84 % for people over 25.

Other sections highlight the very different social contexts in which people experience suffering. People in states, where there is frequently more armed conflict, responded positively with 53 %, which dropped to 35 % in regions and 30 % in Yangon, where there is little armed conflict ( there are no daily airstrikes in Yangon ). 37 % of people in states had lost their homes compared with 26 % in Yangon. However, there were a high 63 % loss of property rate in both the states and Yangon.

Conflict resolution initiatives are interesting because 56 % of respondents believe military methods will work better ( NA-‘no answer ‘ 28 % ), and 39 % ( NA-26 % ) believe negotiations between military and political leaders could work.

However, 37 % of people believe that international mediation to end the conflict could be successful. This includes the United Nations or the Association of South East Asian Nations ( ASEAN ). This is odd because, since the coup, there has n’t been much trust in either institution, and all international mediation efforts have failed to succeed.

The most fascinating section is” Trust in Institutions”, which compares 2020 survey results with early 2024. Although not a direct comparison, as the pre- election People’s Alliance for Credible Elections ( PACE ) survey asked slightly different questions, what has changed and has not suggests a dramatically affected society.

State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi is the most trusted person/institute with 80 % ( NA- 14 % ). It is surprising in some ways that the post-coup resistance failed to produce a new generation of leaders, which may have outlived Suu Kyi and also demonstrates a strong affinity for her as a still-potent resistance image against military rule.

The People’s Defense Forces ( PDFs ) were next with 73 %. The often- reviled National Unity Government ( NUG) must be happy with a 65 % score and the ethnic armed organizations ( EAOs ) with 60 % improved on their 2020 ranking of 22 % confidence. Their resistance to a coup and Operation 1027’s success are likely to play a role in this.

Junta strongman, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, scored an unsurprising 72 % negative rating ( NA- 18 % ), with his State Administration Council ( SAC ) getting 63 % ( NA- 23 % ).

The 2020 survey found 33 % had no confidence in the military but 43 % did ( NA- 21 % ). Many people at the time were shocked by this, and it’s worth considering whether or not they were planning the coup because they believed they had possibly half the country to blame.

Yet in the 2024 survey, that support has evaporated, with 67 % registering no confidence, although with a stubborn 5 % having quite a lot or a great deal of confidence. ( 20 % declined to answer. )

The survey ends with inquiries about information sources. Facebook is still the dominant social network with around 40 %, but the Myanmar media is a little less reliable than international media.

Yet so much of the analysis on Myanmar relies on generally high-quality Myanmar media reports, which have been hacked by a large number of foreign conflict data organizations, especially those that publish publicly, or that have been looted and sold to businesses and embassy sales.

” Anecdata”, combining stories woven into analysis, also abounds, in international perceptions of Myanmar and in the absence of more open research in SAC- controlled areas.

The BSI survey highlights the fact that many of the country’s original and significant work is being produced by skilled individuals in a variety of ways, in addition to providing actual research from a trusted research collective.

They need even more international support to continue to reflect the complex reality of the nation as it enters yet another year of repression, uncertainty, and war.

As an independent analyst with a focus on humanitarian, human rights, and conflict in Myanmar, David Scott Mathieson works on humanitarian, human rights, and conflict issues.

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Australia drain rescue: Man freed after 36 hours trapped underground

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A drainGetty Images
By Hannah Ritchie
in Sydney

After being stranded for 36 hours in a discharge network, an American man has been released.

According to officials, he attempted to get his phone before going down a discharge in Brisbane on Saturday.

The male, aged in his 30s, was rescued on Monday after emergency personnel received a call about one” stuck” underwater.

According to officials, he is currently receiving abrasion and cold in the hospital.

According to local media reports, he had searched for an exit before being saved by paramedics who lifted a discharge cap and let him out.

A Queensland Fire and Emergency Services spokesperson told the BBC that the rescue operation took about five hours.

James Lingwood, a local resident who called the authorities, reported to the Courier Mail news that he first heard a” kind of yelling” voice when he first encountered him on Sunday.

Mr. Lingwood claimed that he looked into the discharge and saw the man knee deep in water and offered to assist, but that his present was turned down.

He told the Courier Mail,” He seemed to be fine, and he said he could leave him alone because he said he could get out where he got in.”

But when passing the exact discharge on Monday, Mr Lingwood said he decided to act after receiving “heavy breathe” indicating” one was in stress”.

The neighborhood council has previously issued warnings to people who should “always stay away from storm water drainage, pipes, and gutters,” describing them as a series of “grates and pits” that was quickly” capture someone”.

Floating dust and “poisonous ingredients” are listed as another possible dangers lurking in the waters.

It’s not clear whether the man was able to retrieve his machine.

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Commentary: Expanded police powers don’t have to mean ‘three steps forward, two steps back’ for mental health in Singapore

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Teaching FOR PRACTICAL Knowledge

Chance analysis is a flawed science, and it can be difficult to predict risk in difficult circumstances.

If a person is in danger of being taken into custody before any real harm is caused by them, the expanded powers would allow police to do so without being “imminent” and “reasonably possible” to occur.

Without precise definitions, there is a chance of inaction in response to exact risk rather than a disproportionate response. Some situations demand urgent intervention, but one prioritising de- escalation and sharp participation of mental health professionals.

Due to the diversity of problems and mental health conditions, it is still necessary to use appropriate risk management and to reduce the chance of use.

Although it is not at all possible to expect police officials to be trained to the level of a mental health professional, it is still possible to give them the practical knowledge to understand the complex experiences.

A panic attack that involves shouting and erratic behavior had occur unexpectedly in common for someone with panic disorder. An agent who is proficient in active listen and de-escalation techniques could use less intimidating body language and a soft voice with greater treatment. Accepting their stress and providing support can help them get the necessary assistance more carefully.

So, specialized training and greater collaboration between law police and mental health professionals are necessary for a reaction that goes beyond the traditional concept of imprisonment and transfer to mental health facilities.

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The ‘death doula’ who invites people to discuss the taboo subject over dinner with an aim to live well

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The breakfast provides a relaxed forum for debate about a taboo subject that is typically unresolved naturally, she continued, encouraging a sense of comfort and familiarity around the topic of suicide. The goal is to “offer gentle guidance and prompts to nudge the dialogue in a creative direction” while embracing social elements in our particular society. The intention is not to impose strict rules or restrictions.

Additionally, it entails teaching people the skills and speech to either help a dying man or walk alongside them.

Every quarter, there are sessions that are available to individual sign-ups. The second Death Over Dinner function is planned for Apr 25 at Podi &amp, Poriyal, with a class size of 12 to 16 people. Tan is even interested in working with various restaurants and accepting reservations from private groups.

The topic of death is often broached when everyone is good, she mused. However, in the face of loss, which affects all of us sooner or later,” People may struggle to find the right words to express their feelings or fears, fearing that discussing the subject may lead to further distress or discomfort for the person who is ill may choose to avoid discussions about end-of-life wishes, funeral arrangements, or even acknowledging the possibility of death,” which causes a palpable tension and unease.

” Talking about it boldly and saying what needs to be said can help the people who are left behind adapt to the lost after the man passes away.”

And” In the case of someone who is aware that they are dying, those around them may not want to talk about it, which you leave them feeling unknown. They might not be able to express their desires, there might be unstated information, or even someone whispering,” You’re going to be fine,” when they know they wo n’t be.

How can we begin to talk about death openly and honestly and in a meaningful way begs another question: How is talking about death may help us live our lives more completely and purposefully?

Accepting the fixed nature of life and finding harmony with it can alter how we view the world. When we recognize that life starts and ends in the end, Tan said, we can identify what transpires in between and holds value.

How do we control what transpires in the middle of problem? How do we keep a legacy for the present and future generations? Do we want to invest our time sweating the small things and harbouring prejudices, or rather, use it to make memories and foster strong relationships? Living purposefully prompts us to confront these issues and coordinate our actions with our principles.

” Eventually, embracing the emptiness of living compels us to live honestly, love fiercely and left a tradition of sympathy and connection”.

To sign up for Death Over Dinner, visit https ://thelifereview .org/death-over-dinner.

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Cause to cheer, cause to jeer China stock bounce – Asia Times

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A debate between the bulls and bears is raging as a few measures for Chinese companies, which are off 20 % from their January lows.

The cows are betting that Beijing’s recovery efforts have been successful in bringing the market base and that there are numerous buying opportunities. The animals see more of a “dead kitty jump” after a US$ 7 trillion defeat and continued symptoms China’s economic holes are deepening.

Who’s straight? Whether President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang take the lead in that regard depends on what they will do next.

To be sure, the rise in promote charges, including those for the Hang Seng Tech Index, suggests that investors have overcame the stress and are now digesting Beijing’s ostensible game plan.

That requires very targeted more than broad-based stimulus and a greater emphasis on longer-term reforms to strengthen China’s large economic game and strengthen the role of high-tech and other high-value-added sectors.

However, this preliminary rally also signifies that Xi and Li have a new relationship with international investors.

On the time: Li Qiang and Xi Jinping in a document image. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

Communist Party leaders must accelerate efforts to end the house crisis, maintain regional government finances, and enhance China’s funds markets to support the new buying.

This week’s National People’s Congress and” Two Sessions” conferences made for an uneasy split- display for Xi’s group.

Beijing took a huge leap forward with strategies to destroy “new successful forces” to build a more stable and successful business on one monitor.

On the other hand, there were messages that previous policy mistakes are catching up with the business, as seen in fierce efforts to stop China Vanke, a significant property developer, from going bust.

Techniques taken since January to comfort international investors appear to be gaining some traction. These include the People’s Bank of China’s use of precise cash to help the country’s frightened areas and the “national group” of state-run cash ‘ stock purchases.

” We see China’s stock turnover possible growing more, especially if stimulus policies out of the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress meet marketplace expectations”, says Jonathan Fortun, an analyst at the Institute of International Finance.

” We are beginning to see the pandemic go away from the Chinese equity market, with significant reforms in the real estate industry under way and significant state-led purchases,” he continued.

Zhu Liang, investment director of AllianceBernstein Fund Management, points out that mainland stocks, particularly A- shares, are highly attractive in terms of valuation.

It’s a bit of a change from January when Chinese stocks were among the worst-performing asset classes on the planet. Since then, changes to the banks ‘ reserve ratio requirements and other efforts to boost liquidity have slowly but surely retracted the attention of the world to China.

Xi, Li, and PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng have yet to address the deflation narrative to the delight of many investors.

According to Citigroup economist Xinyu Ji, “further policy efforts are essential to foster and consolidate the price momentum.”

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, “markets are likely to remain volatile because the NPC fiscal package is insufficient to address the deflation concern and corporate earnings remain constrained.”

Hope can be sparked by reports that China Vanke, a country struggling for cash, is negotiating a debt swap with banks. The property industry is still very insolvent despite its stumble, which serves as a reminder of that. On Monday, Moody’s Investors Service cut China Vanke to a” junk” rating.

The most recent property developer is teetering toward default, China Vanke. Image: X Screengrab

” The rating actions reflect Moody’s expectation that China Vanke’s credit metrics, financial flexibility and liquidity buffer will weaken over the next 12 to 18 months”, says Kaven Tsang, an analyst at Moody’s.

That’s “because of its declining contracted sales and the growing uncertainty over its funding options in the face of the prolonged property market downturn in China.”

The onshore debt default watch involving Country Garden’s continues to generate unfavorable headlines. So there are doubts about China’s “around 5 %” economic growth target for this year without additional bazooka stimulus explosions.

Hitting the 5 % GDP goal will be” challenging”, says ING Bank economist Lynn Song, pointing to weak consumer confidence in Asia’s biggest economy. ” Trade is unlikely to be a major engine of growth as well, with global trade growth expected to remain below historical averages, especially given rising Sino-US trade protectionionism,” said one analyst.

Nomura Holdings ‘ economists concur that “achieving the’around 5 % ‘ growth target will be very challenging.”

They point out that China’s economy is still” still faltering,” as evidenced by the crackdown on local government debt in 12 high-risk provinces, the likely likely significant slowdown in investment in the new energy sector, and the lackluster data that has been made available for January and February.

The local government debt component of China’s economic puzzle is also undergoing growing and more stringent scrutiny. Banks are being advised by Xi’s regulators to halt their use of offshore bond-issuance services by local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ).

The$ 9 trillion mountain of LGFV debts poses a significant challenge for Xi’s efforts to deleveraging the economy. A state-owned company selling bonds to pay LGFV debt was one recent transaction that raised questions. The issue is that these practices are more prevalent than many investors might think.

It’s “rare to explicitly issue debt just to repay debt of another entity,” says economist Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century&nbsp, China&nbsp, Center at the University of California- San Diego.” Insect subsidies of LGFVs are everywhere,” he says.

They must deal with an increasingly difficult balancing act as Xi and Li try to deleverage the economy. Beijing could face new pressure from the outside as the world’s headwinds increase in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

” China’s economy is marred by insufficient domestic demand”, says Emily Jin, an analyst at advisory firm Datenna.

” For years, analysts have urged Beijing to boost consumption’s role in China’s economy, to little avail. The 5.2 % increase in consumer demand in 2023, largely attributable to a low base effect from pandemic consumption levels, may not hold up until 2024, according to Jin.

For now, China’s deflation trend is cheering many bond investors. In early March, yields on 30- year bonds hit a record low of 2.4 %.

Yet Beijing’s fiscal spending plans– and its debt issuance plans – mean Xi and Li must tread carefully. China, for example, plans to sell a record 1 trillion yuan ($ 139 billion ) of ultra- long- term bonds. That’s more than two times the average issuance between 2019 and 2023.

According to Goldman Sachs analyst Xinquan Chen,” the risk of a correction at the long end is high.”

According to economists, the recent spike in gold prices may be just as related to worries about Chinese deflation as US inflation.

” Gold is now the most overbought since March 8, 2022, where it peaked and declined from$ 2, 050 to$ 1, 650″, write Bank of America strategists in a recent note. Although we do n’t demand that, it is reasonable to anticipate that price momentum to wane and/or decline in the face of stretched daily relative-strength index conditions.

China’s stock market could be hampered by rising trade tensions ahead of the US election on November 5. According to Stephen Innes, a strategist at SPI Asset Management, the recent decline in Apple Inc.’s stock as iPhone sales in China decline are a” stark reminder of the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China.”

The most crucial missing element is a bold and specific strategy to solve the property crisis, which investors are currently looking at. It’s vital, analysts say, that Beijing devises a mechanism to get bad assets off property developers ‘ balance sheets.

Whether China cribs from Japan’s 1990s bad- loan mess or America’s 1980s savings and loan debacle matters less than authorities acting urgently and assertively.

In the short run, China’s housing minister, Ni Hong, says regulators intend to support “reasonable” financing needs of real estate developers. A so-called “whitelist mechanism” is a part of the plan to keep liquidity flowing to the property sector, which can account for about a quarter of GDP.

China has n’t intervened in the property market as aggressively as many anticipated. Image: Twitter

Last month, China Construction Bank, one of the nation’s biggest state- owned commercial institutions, said it had handled more than 2, 000 such projects, approving nearly$ 2.8 billion of pending disbursements.

However, much more incisive action may be required to keep the China stock bulls moving and give them the confidence to put their bets up. A definitive end to the crisis may be required.

That’s not to say Team Xi’s splashy pivot toward greater innovation and productivity is n’t a “buy” signal. China needs more productivity gains to achieve decent economic growth in the future, according to analyst Tilly Zhang of Gavekal Dragonomics, who is a member of Gavekal Dragonomics.

Yet, the move upmarket is very much still a work in progress. According to Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics,” the NPC Work Report last week commits to keeping “money supply and credit growth in step with the real GDP and inflation targets.” This may indicate that policymakers will try a little harder to push inflation higher than the 3 % target than the previous year.

But, Huang notes,” we think China’s low inflation is a symptom of its growth model built on a high rate of investment. We anticipate that inflation will remain low in the long run because reducing dependence on investment is still far off.

The good news, though, is that efforts to raise China’s economic game are beginning to pay some dividends.

” China’s economy is weak but it’s not that weak”, economist Shaun Rein at the China Market Research Group, told CNBC.

” If you’re a multinational, if you’re looking to drive growth over the next three to five years, the next China is China. It’s not India — India’s only a sixth of the GDP of China— it’s not Vietnam. These are small markets. So I actually think investors should be looking long- term at China again, it’s definitely investible”, he said.

” It’s too early to call a bull market, you still have to be very cautious, the economy is still weak – do n’t get me wrong — again the D word – deflation – looms over China, there is still a weak job market, but the valuations are too low”, Rein said.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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