Why Biden finally attacked the Houthis

On: January 13, 2024

In: Asia

Since mid-November, the Houthis have been launching attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. The US sent a number of AEGIS destroyers to help protect international shipping, performing the dual role of intercepting Houthi drones and missiles and coming to the aid of distressed commercial ships.

The British also sent one of its best ships, the HMS Diamond. However, something changed to cause the US and the UK to actually strike Houthi military sites in retaliation.

Serious doubts arose on both the British and US sides that they were not equipped to deal with swarms of Houthi UAVs and missiles. On January 10, US and British forces shot down 21 drones and missiles. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said that doing this was unsustainable. What did he mean?

There are two answers to the question of why the situation with the Houthis was going out of control. The first answer relates to the number of missiles aboard a ship. US ships are relying on SM-2 missiles, part of the AEGIS system.

One expert estimates the number available as follows:

“The [AEGIS] destroyers have a complement of 96 VLS cells, while the [Ticonderoga class] cruisers have 122…. However, they need to fit a mixture of weaponry in those cells so they can’t all be used for air defense.

This weaponry includes the ESSM (quad packed into a single cell), the SM-2 (and its newer counterpart the SM-6), Tomahawk cruise missiles, ASROC anti-submarine missile(s) and SM-3 anti-ballistic missile(s).

The exact ratio of these weapons is largely dependent on the mission and the possible threats faced. However, at least 200 ESSM and another 100 or so SM-2 or SM-6 seems like a fair guess. Maybe a bit more.”

In short, each of the AEGIS has around 100 missiles. The British Sea Viper is the main air defense system the HMS Diamond relied on to fire at Houthi drones and missiles.

“Type 45 destroyers, also known as Daring-class destroyers, are specifically designed around the Sea Viper (PAAMS) air defense system. Each Type 45 destroyer is equipped with a 48-cell A50 Sylver Vertical Launching System. This system is designed to accommodate a mix of up to 48 Aster 15 and Aster 30 missiles,” the expert said.

Neither the US nor the British ships can be reprovisioned at sea, so they have a limited ability to “stay in the fight” if it continues for any length of time.

As the January 10 Houthi attack demonstrated, the Houthis were increasing the number of daily attacks. How large an arsenal the Houthis had, therefore, was challenging US and British defense capabilities.

Missile defenses are very expensive. Each SM-2 missile costs US$2.1 million each. Sea Viper, which can either be an Aster 15 or Aster 30, costs either 1 million to 2 million pounds per shot. ($1.25 million to $2.5 million).

Nor does this take into account the challenge of replacing these missiles once expended. It not only will be more expensive but could take years of production time.

This leads to the second answer: what happened that was different than before? There are three possibilities.

The first is that on January 10 the British ship HMS Diamond and US destroyers in the area were directly targeted by the Houthis. If this interpretation is correct, it meant that the Houthis decided to directly attack US and UK warships.

The second possibility was Houthi threats and the response by the US. On December 20, the Houthi leaders warned “they would strike US warships if the Iranian-backed militia was targeted by Washington.”

On December 31, the Maersk container ship, the Singapore-flagged Hangzhou, issued a distress call saying it was under attack by four boats.

“The small boats, originating from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, fired crew-served and small-arms weapons at the Maersk Hangzhou, getting to within 20 meters of the vessel and attempted to board the vessel,” the US Central Command said.

Helicopters from the USS Eisenhower carrier and the AEGIS USS Gravely destroyer sent helicopters to intercept the four ships. After they ignored warnings, three of the Houthi combat vessels were destroyed by gunfire and the fourth fled.

The Houthis response was “The American enemy bears the consequences of this crime and its military movements in the Red Sea to protect Israeli ships won’t prevent” the Houthis from “performing their religious, moral and humanitarian duty in support and aid of those who have been wronged in Palestine and Gaza.”

But the third reason is more important than shooting up some Houthi boats filled with commandos. In their attack on January 10, the Houthis fired ballistic anti-ship missiles at US and British warships. Previously, the Houthis relied on Kamikaze drones and anti-ship cruise missiles.

Drones are very slow flying and typically use either small gasoline motors and propellers or are battery-powered. The Houthis have four types of combat drones: Qasef-1, Qasef-2K, Sammad-2 and Sammad-3.

The Qasef-1 and Qasef-2 are small loitering munitions based on Iran’s Ababil drone. Each carries a 30-kilogram warhead. Samad drones are longer-range. It is likely the drones used in the shipping lanes near the Bab-el-Mandeb straits are of the short-range variety.

Yemen has a number of different types of anti-ship cruise missiles. On December 11, for example, the Norwegian tanker Strinda was hit by a Houthi anti-ship cruise missile. It sustained some damage but survived.

In the Ukraine war, a Neptune R360 anti-ship missiles sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, Moskva. All these missiles are jet-powered and subsonic. This means they can be tracked by radar and destroyed with air defense missiles.

The problem is much more difficult if the missiles fired are ballistic missiles, meaning they are powered by a rocket motor. This makes them much faster and gives defenders far less reaction time.

The Houthis have many different anti-ship ballistic missiles supplied by Iran. They present a serious problem in restricted sea lanes near the shoreline, which is the key problem facing allies in the Bab El-Mandeb strait.

It is likely the appearance of rocket-powered ballistic anti-ship missiles forced the US and UK to make the decision to finally strike the Houthis and not just stay on the defensive.

The only other choice would be to stop protecting shipping in the Red Sea but that would negatively impact Europe, including the UK, and it would deprive Egypt of its top asset, the Suez Canal, with monthly revenues of around $750 million.

This article was originally published on his Weapons and Security Substack. It is republished with kind permission.

Online personality Kurt Tay gets more charges, says he will make police reports after being heckled

By: Marcus Ching

On: January 10, 2024

In: South-East Asia

SINGAPORE: Online personality Kurt Tay has been handed 10 fresh charges of distributing obscene material online and threatening a person in a Telegram chat group.

Tay, whose real name is Tay Foo Wei, now faces a total of 11 charges – 10 for distributing intimate images or videos of a woman without her consent to others via Telegram, and one charge under the Protection from Harassment Act of making threatening, abusive or insulting communication.

The charges are for Tay sending photos and videos of the same woman to users on Telegram and to chat groups, showing the woman performing a sex act.

The distribution was without her consent and likely to cause her humiliation, alarm and distress, the charges state.

On top of two chat groups, Tay also allegedly sent the material to seven people in October 2023.

The names of the recipients and the chat groups cannot be published as the court has imposed a gag order on their names.

The victim is also protected by a gag order.

The sole harassment-related charge that Tay faces is for several statements he allegedly made in a Telegram chat group on Oct 18, 2023.

He purportedly asked if anyone knew where to hire a killer and that he wanted someone to die “ASAP”, including vulgarities in his message.

The court heard on Wednesday that Tay might face additional charges.

Tay’s lawyer told the court that his client has been “harassed and heckled by the public”, and that this has caused grief to his family.

Tay would be making police reports, the lawyer added.

The problem of refugee camps in MENA region

By: Bolen C

On: January 6, 2024

In: Asia

According to the UN, the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) region will account for 12 % of “forcibly displaced and stateless people” in 2024. War, humanitarian problems, and economic disasters will all contribute to this movement.

The Sudanese civil war and the fallout from normal catastrophe in Turkey, Syria, Morocco, and Libya are the latest causes of the number. The millions of people in Palestine who have been displaced since 1948 are not included in this portion.

Children make up 50 % of the more than 80,000 people living in the Za’atari refugee camp in Jordan, where 20-year-old Arab girl Souad is pregnant.

It’s challenging to raise a kid in the tent. Souad informed the Wilson Center, a US-based coverage think reservoir, in June 2023 that there is limited access to basic tools like clothes and baby milk formula.

Za’atari was the fourth-largest capital in Jordan for a brief period in 2013 and was home to more than 200,000 Syrians at the time.

According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees ( UNHCR ), despite the fact that the population of the 11-year-old refugee camp has since decreased and there is still no sign of a truce in the neighboring Syria, Za’atari continues to be the largest camp for refugees in both the Middle East and the world. ( Most refugees do n’t reside in formal camps. )

According to the UNHCR, 131 million people are expected to become displaced worldwide by 2024.

According to the UNHCR, of the entire 131 million people who are expected to be displaced, 63 million are anticipated to experience internal displacement, and an additional 57 million does experience external displacement or become refugees. Women and children may make up the vast majority of those who have been displaced, just like Za’atari.

More than three-quarters of the migrants were housed in lower- and middle-income nations in 2022, with Turkey leading the way with 3.6 million people and Iran at 3.4 million. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Lebanon has the highest rate of refugees per capita ( 1 in 8 ), followed by Jordan ( one in 14 ).

results of the civil war in Syria and Yemen

Syria, where the civil war started in 2011 and is still going on, is home to the majority of the migrants in the MENA area. Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, and North Africa are home to more than 5.3 million Syrian migrants. The most Palestinian refugees in Europe are also housed in Germany, where there are about 560,000 of them.

This excludes the roughly 6.8 million internally displaced people who are still living in Syria. In the MENA place, about three-quarters of those under UNHCR’s purview—millions from the civil war in Yemen and Syria—were internally displaced.

The “entrepreneurial” spirit of the refugees is frequently emphasized in Za’atari, which has a bustling business district known as the Sham Elysees ( a play on the Arabic word for Syria and the Parisian avenue Champs-Élysées ). However, Asia Amari, an 18-year-old camp native, told CNN in 2016 that” We are not living around; it’s just an life.”

A visit to Azraq, another Syrian refugee camp in Jordan, reveals a very unique tale than the one about thriving fair. Azraq, which was intended to serve as a model camp, has been described as” a heavily controlled, miserable, and half-empty enclosure of symmetrical districts that restricts economic activity, movement and self-expression.”

It has been referred to by refugees as an “outdoor incarceration” and by outsiders as a “dystopian problem.”

situation of Palestinians

In contrast, a distinct UN organization is in charge of the nearly 6 million multigenerational Arab immigrants. In addition to smaller amounts residing in various MENA nations, about 1.5 million Arab migrants are housed in camps in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan.

” Socioeconomic conditions in the camps are generally poor, with high population density, cramped living conditions, and inadequate basic infrastructure such as roads and sewers,” according to the United Nations Relief and Work Agency ( UNRWA ), which oversees the Palestinian refugee camps.

According to the think-tank Migration Policy Institute, for instance, the almost 488 000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon are asynchronous and “have extremely limited exposure to public health care, education, or the official economy.” They reside in camps for almost 45 % of the time.

” In some Palestinian tents, when the spring rains come, natural sewage washes into people’s houses,” according to the non-governmental business Anera.

According to a Lancet study published in 2012, 31 % of Palestinian refugees living in these camps had chronic medical conditions, and 55 % had “psychological distress.”

Not only is gender-based violence a significant problem in these tents, but UNRWA claims that “violent clashes]among different groups ] are also]a regular occurrence.”

Another illustration of the appalling situations faced by Palestinians is Gaza, where both the poverty level and the proportion of people who rely on humanitarian aid are over 80 %. As of August 2022, the unemployment rate was 47 %.

According to Anera, 13 % of the youth community experienced hunger in 2017. And that was when Israel launched its massive war and bombing campaign.

Some refugees, like many Palestinians, still have a strong desire to go back to their home country, should the circumstances when again permit it to be safe for them to do so. Some, however, have the chance; for instance, fewer than 25, 000 Palestinian immigrants were able to return to the nation in the first eight month of 2023.

Others want to relocate to Canada, Europe, or another location, like Amari. But for the time being, they are confined to filthy tents.

Globetrotter created this post and gave it to Asia Times.

PBOC, BOJ start 2024 on a razor’s edge

By: Bolen C

On: January 3, 2024

In: Asia

TOKYO- Despite all the issues regarding the US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China and Bank for Japan are the source of the actual play this season.

The task of stabilizing Asia’s largest economy and fending off negative forces without re-inflating property bubble falls to PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng in Beijing. As Japan flirts with a recession, BOJ Governor&nbsp, Kazuo Ueda, is under pressure to end quantitative easing ( QE ) over in Tokyo.

Failure by either of the best policymakers could have unpredictable effects on the international economic order.

That is not to say that the Fed cannot slam markets in Seoul and New York with even the tiniest hint of budgetary action. The typical wisdom has swung with mind-boggling rate in recent days, from more level hikes to extreme easing in the coming months.

As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell chooses whether to applaud or upset investors, dangers abound. If you relax very soon, inflation may last forever. The Fed may increase the likelihood of a recession and potential bank problems if rates are cut too soon.

However, at the beginning of 2024, the difficulties authorities in Beijing and Tokyo are facing are much more complicated.

China is dealing with an intensifying real estate crisis, high rates of youth unemployment, negative pressures, and a Communist Party that is losing support from continent residents and overseas investors. In general, all of those pressures may support forceful price reductions.

When you add President Xi Jinping’s deleveraging directive, items become much more complicated. Since 2016, the transformation team at Xi has prioritized containing risks associated with a decade of excessive loans. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 180 % in 2011 to 256 % in 2017.

According to Logan Wright, chairman of China markets studies at Rhodium Group, this deleveraging plan “is the only reasonable starting point to discuss how China’s fundamental economic slowdown began.”

According to Wright,” China’s economic authorities cut record growth in half and made it much more difficult for Beijing to power the economy using its standard tools of credit-fueled investment by state-owned enterprises and regional governments” by reducing the growth of the shadow, or casual banking system.

According to Wright, “property developers continued to increase their own loans throughout the deleveraging promotion, building up an exceptional real estate bubble before it finally burst in late 2021, boosting China’s current&nbsp, financial grief.” Following the global financial crisis, the deleveraging strategy marked the end of China’s unparalleled credit growth.

According to Wright,” China perhaps may have experienced a fiscal crisis much sooner had Beijing never taken the aggressive steps it did targeting shadow banks starting in 2016, as its system became increasingly difficult to regulate and was already resembling parts of the US economic system before the 2007–2008 global economic crises.”

Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) Pan Gongsheng is depicted here. Online, New Straits Times, and Screengrab

Pan naturally does n’t want to waste money trying to slow down China’s boom-and-bust cycles. Pan wants to prevent encouraging a relapse into poor banking and borrowing practices. Additionally, his team needs to be aware that Premier Li Qiang and Xi do n’t want the yuan to fall significantly below current levels.

However, slow economic growth and low consumer prices are also urging more financial aid. Particularly when international challenges are getting worse, as evidenced by the highest&nbsp, US yields, in nearly 20 years, among other indicators.

China’s economy experienced new signs of weakness in December as stock task remained subdued. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for the country fell from 49.4 in November, the third consecutive month of recession and the biggest drop in six times. Data indicate that stress on China’s services industry is also getting worse.

All of this points to the need for more signal in the short term, placing pressure on Pan’s PBOC.

In his annual New Year speech on Sunday, Xi insisted that China’s market had” sustained the speed of treatment.” However, talk of a significant new macroeconomic paying jolt was absent. &nbsp,

While acknowledging that” some companies had a tough time, some people had problems finding work and meeting basic needs” in the face of “headwinds,” Xi made it clear that long-term economic stability continues to be the top priority.

According to Xi,” we may continue to act in accordance with the principles of establishing the new before abolishing the ancient, promoting stability through headway, and seeking development while maintaining balance.”

Investors may be encouraged by Xi’s intentional phrasing if he uses this five-year term, his third, to accelerate reforms to increase innovation and productivity. &nbsp,

Xi, for instance, emphasized how scientific developments were boosting China’s “manufacturing skill” in lithium batteries, solar photovoltaic cells, and electric vehicles.

Notably, Xi vowed to “double efforts to advance science and technology, build talents, and boost education.” New levels are being scaled with tenacious resolve, and new works and improvements are emerging every day, as Xi put it.

The decline in island China is also echoing throughout Asia. As best markets almost everyday experienced sharp gains in 2023, Hong Kong stocks lost approximately US$ 523 billion in market value. &nbsp,

In 2023, the MSCI World Index increased by 22 %. Hong Kong companies, on the other hand, dropped for the second year out of the previous six. As local require declined, the S&amp, P Global Taiwan Manufacturing PMI decreased from 48.3 in November to 47.1 in December.

Due to all of this, the central banks will be responsible for any efforts to address China’s slowing growth without escalating its disparities. Anyone can speculate as to how Pan threads these numerous needles or whether the PBOC also you. &nbsp,

Kazuo Ueda, the government of the Bank of Japan, is having trouble endingQE. Image: Screengrab / Online

The BOJ of Ueda, which is under intense pressure to leave QE, may become compared in a similar way. Profit-hungry banks are sick of eking out meager profits in a culture with negative interest rates.

However, a recession in Japan’s local economy is quite possible to have ended 2023. In the months of July and September, growth decreased 2.9 % quarter over quarter. Since then, there has n’t been much evidence that the fourth quarter was any stronger.

According to scholar Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics, even though the third-quarter GDP decline “was only a blip,” we” also assume GDP growth to slow down quickly” this year.

This makes it extremely difficult for Ueda to transition away from its 24 years of zero interest rates, 22 years ‘ worth of QE, and an eight-year period of negative yield policies. It is obvious that high prices gives Team Ueda enough weapons to start “tapering.”

Core inflation is currently higher than 3 %, excluding fresh food and energy. We plainly see pretty resilient upward pressures in support prices, according to ING Bank economist Min Joo Kang.” It’s correct that cost-push inflation tends to be short-lived and could be transitory.

Japan Inc. may not be prepared for financial alcoholism, though. Banks, businesses, local governments, pension and healthcare resources, universities, assets, the postal savings method, and the growing number of seniors will all suffer significant losses if Japanese government yields increase to 2 % or even 3 %.

This “mutually assured death” active had previously prevented almost anyone from selling loan. Tokyo will have more trouble paying off the largest debt load in the developed world, which is currently at about 265 % of GDP, the higher provides go.

These contradictory factors raise concerns about the size of the currency’s most recent increases. According to researcher Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bandank,” The market’s place regarding the yen may n’t be clearer.” The most obvious industry in the forex markets right now is the long Japanese yen. It is almost to simple.

possibly incorrect. Before retiring in April to&nbsp, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda’s father, had a number of opportunities, pivot away from QE, or simply telephone that an leave might be in the cards. He did n’t. &nbsp,

To be sure, Kuroda prepared for a change in December 2022 by allowing yields to increase by as much as 0.5 %. International markets became chaotic as a result, prompting Kuroda’s staff to rush to acquire debt and signal that BOJ policy had not changed.

That was an error. Kuroda had plenty of opportunity to signal QE was finished over the course of the following several months as he prepared to leave BOJ office. &nbsp,

Markets were ready for a great statement, and the Tokyo creation was reluctantly preparing for one. Kuroda, who had spent the previous ten years elevating QE to new heights, also had enough political clout to start reversing his extreme asset hoarding.

Ueda has witnessed economic conditions deteriorate in the 269 weeks since taking the stick. The widely anticipated post-Covid boom&nbsp in China did n’t occur, the Fed kept tightening, and the Japanese GDP started to decline. Ueda’s ability to leave QE is constrained by all of this.

Ueda consistently confused bet for major BOJ action, with the exception of a few minor adjustments to allow 10-year yields to major 1 %. Local trends today make it extremely challenging for Ueda to tighten its financial straps. &nbsp,

According to Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Joseph Capurso, wage growth is “remains poor and weakening.” ” We anticipate that the dollar-yen’s upward momentum will pick back up later this year.”

Jerome Powell, US Federal Reserve Chair Photo: Xinhua

The BOJ’s decision-making process is influenced by what the Fed does in Washington. According to Marc Chandler, main market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex,” the question is when and how quickly Fed price reductions may be delivered.” &nbsp,

The swing of market sentiment has significantly shifted from the “higher for longer” mantra of the majority of last year to pricing in extreme easing, according to him, as a result of moderated price pressures and weaker growth impulses. &nbsp,

However, how Beijing and Tokyo control 2024 will continue to be the main topic of discussion in central banks circles. Additionally, neither the PBOC nor BOJ are currently aware of any surprises that may be in store for them in the coming 12 weeks.

William Pesek can be reached at @WilliamPesak on X, previously Twitter.

Japan Airlines says jet cleared to land before collision as investigators probe conflicting reports

By: Jing Write

On: January 3, 2024

In: Asia

The words and aircraft recorders from the coast guard aircraft had been located, according to Takuya Fujiwara of the Japan Transport Safety Board, but the passenger plane’s records were still being looked for.

” We are examining the circumstances.” On the runway, several parts are dispersed, Fujiwara said, adding that the authority intended to interview a number of participants.

Officers at the big airline responded,” Our realizing is that it was given,” when asked if the Japan Airlines flight had getting agreement during a presentation.

However, citing the ongoing investigation, JAL and the property government chose not to comment directly on the conversations between the two planes ‘ flight controllers.

A voice can be heard advising JAL’s trip to” continue approach” in a recording from Haneda control tower that was reportedly made in the seconds before the incident and is accessible online at the website that broadcasts live heat traffic signs.

According to NHK, the seacoast watch helicopter was told to stay short of the airport by the control tower.

However, the journalist also cited an unknown Coast Guard official as saying that Genki Miyamoto, a 39-year-old pilot, declared he had the go-ahead to take off as soon as the accident occurred.

JAL expressed his regret for the stress and pain caused to our people, their communities, and those affected in a Twitter post on Wednesday.” We offer our deepest condolences to the families of the Japan Coast Guard officers who lost their lives in this manner.

The flight added that it was fully cooperating with the exploration and that its top priority was the safety of its passengers and employees. &nbsp,

For consumers with reservations through March 31, 2024, we are offering modifications and refunds for JAL Group airfare tickets in light of this mishap without charging any fees. &nbsp,

Singaporean missing off Desaru in Malaysia after being swept by waves

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 27, 2023

In: South-East Asia

SINGAPORE: A search and rescue operation is underway for a Singaporean man who went missing off Malaysia’s coast of Desaru on Wednesday (Dec 27).

According to Malaysian media, the 49-year-old man and his son were hit by waves while they were in the water off The Westin Desaru Coast Resort.

The son, 16, was rescued by members of the public and taken to Kota Tinggi Hospital.

The operations commander of Penawar Fire and Rescue Department said a red flag had been raised at the beach to warn visitors against water activities due to rough seas.

“A red flag was raised there as a warning to visitors not to engage in activities on the beach due to weather conditions,” Senior Assistant Superintendent Masri Ibrahim said in a statement.

He added that a distress call was made at about 12.30pm on Wednesday, and that 17 rescuers were deployed to the scene.

CNA has contacted Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for information.

Desaru, a coastal town in the state of Johor, is popular among Singapore tourists for its resorts and beaches. It is about a 90-minute ferry ride from Singapore.

âItâs not just hormonesâ: Current management of postpartum depression falls short, more intervention needed

By: Marcus Ching

On: December 26, 2023

In: South-East Asia

Multiple factors can increase the risk of a mother developing postnatal depression, said Dr Lee. These include:

History of depression or mental illness

Women with pre-existing depression or other mental illnesses may be more susceptible to the negative emotions associated with postnatal depression.

Past upbringing or difficult relationship with own mum

Women who had a tough relationship with their mothers as children may carry emotional baggage into motherhood. This can cause them to exert too much pressure on themselves as new mums, eventually leading to heightened stress and a higher risk of depression.

Complicated pregnancy

Women who had a challenging pregnancy, experiencing both physical and mental distress, may have heightened anxiety after giving birth.

Assisted pregnancy (IVF or IUI)

Conceiving through assisted reproduction such as in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) or intra-uterine insemination (IUI) can make the baby even more precious to the mother, intensifying her concerns about potential complications during childbirth and thus, increasing her anxiety.

Premature birth and NICU stay

Mothers of premature infants, particularly those admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit, often grapple with anxiety and depression due to the intense worry they have about their baby’s health and treatment.

Social factors

Single mothers, those facing financial challenges, individuals with many children, or those lacking a supportive spouse or family unit may experience increased stress in caring for a newborn, thereby elevating the risk of postpartum depression.

Local drug addict kills police officer

By: Barkar Nash

On: December 25, 2023

In: South-East Asia

PUBLISHED : 26 Dec 2023 at 04:00

Nakhon Phanom: A policeman was killed while trying to subdue a drug addict undergoing a psychotic episode in That Phanom district on Sunday.

Pol Lt Issrawut Kopolrat, deputy crime suppression chief at That Phanom station, was killed when he responded to a distress call in Ban Choke Amnuay in tambon Ummao, where the suspect, identified only as 49-year-old Anudet, was causing a disturbance.

Anudet was known to residents as a methamphetamine addict who has been in and out of jail for various offences.

He was undergoing treatment for his addiction and often exhibited strange behaviour in public, brought on by years of drug abuse.

Pol Lt Issrawut, who was the first officer to arrive on the scene, attempted to calm Anudet down. However, the suspect pulled a knife and stabbed the police lieutenant seven times. Pol Lt Issrawut was pronounced dead at the scene.

The police back-up team arrested Anudet when they arrived at the scene. Anudet has been charged initially with murder, but he is expected to be charged on other counts too. The suspect’s relatives said Anudet has been living by himself since his divorce, and he has been addicted to methamphetamine for a long time.

Kanoknart Kopolrat, 29, Pol Lt Issrawut’s wife, said her husband had known Anudet personally for some time. In fact, she said, Pol Lt Issrawut had offered to arrange medical help for Anudet, after his family failed to convince him to seek help for his addiction. She said Anudet should be punished to the full extent of the law. “It’s life for a life. Mental illness should not be an excuse for leniency,” Ms Kanoknart said.

Manyuree Kopolrat, 79, the slain officer’s mother, said Pol Lt Issrawut leaves behind four children, three from a previous marriage and one from his current wife.

Iran-Houthis tap AIS tracking tech for high sea attacks

By: Bolen C

On: December 25, 2023

In: Asia

Iran and the Houthis have been tapping into the Automated Tracking System (AIS) to locate and attack ships in the Red Sea and since December 23 ships in the Indian Ocean.

Where AIS lacks information on military ships, Iranian radars do the job of finding them. The entire operation is sophisticated and is managed in real-time, requiring significant assets to identify targets. There is no doubt that Iran and the Houthis are working together.

AIS is a system onboard ships that reports their name, location, position, course and speed. The AIS system is linked to the ship’s gyro compass, rate of turn indicator and GPS.

The resulting information is received by other ships, sent to coastal relay stations and can also be transmitted to AIS-enabled satellites. Around 99% of commercial ships worldwide use the AIS system. The system is mandated by the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea or SOLAS.

SOLAS has a number of other requirements all designed to enhance sea safety. For example. it requires ships to be equipped with Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs) and Search and Rescue Transponders (SARTs).

Ships at sea are obligated to offer assistance to those in distress. SOLAS also specifies the use of life-saving signals with specific requirements regarding danger and distress messages. US military ships also have AIS systems but don’t always turn them on.

Military ships have collision-avoidance radars that can be used to help avoid accidents, especially in areas around ports and heavily used channels. In addition, US Navy ships always have 24-hour watches by trained sailors.

AIS only covers ships over 300 tons, so many small fishing and tourist boats do not have the system. Radars are not always effective, especially against wooden vessels or in bad weather.

On June 17, 2017, the USS Fitzgerald, a guided missile destroyer like those now operating in the Red Sea, collided with the merchant ship ACX Crystal 80 nautical miles (150 kilometers; 92 miles) southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Seven sailors died in the incident. The Fitzgerald was not using its AIS system.

A few months after the Fitzgerald accident, the US Navy decided to use AIS in high-traffic areas. Some commercial ships turn off their AIS in areas where there is either a threat of attack or hijacking. However, doing so in high-traffic areas like the Red Sea invites the chance of a serious accident and compromises insurance policies for ships and cargo.

There are a number of online, public AIS trackers that cover civilian and military ships. One of them, Cruising Earth, features a separate section to track military ships from many nations, including the United States.

Checking on the US ships that have been identified as involved in Red Sea operations, the USS Carney, USS Mason and, most recently, the USS Laboon (all Arleigh Burke-class AEGIS-equipped destroyers) reveals that none of them have their AIS system operating.

The USS Mason was last reported on AIS on November 30th in the Gulf of Aden. There are no reports since that date and the vessel is listed as “out of range.” The USS Carney’s last reported AIS location was on December 12, 2022, on the east coast of the United States.

The USS Laboon, which just shot down two Houthi missiles, was last reported in the Sea of Azov on June 18, 2021. What this means is neither the Iranians nor the Houthis can use AIS to track US warships.

However, that limitation does not apply to other methods of finding US warships and certainly does not protect commercial ships using AIS which can be actively tracked, by name, by the Iranians and Houthis.

By reading ship registration records, Iranian intelligence can figure out which ships have all or partial Israeli or other foreign ownership, and tag them so that when they enter an area within reach of drones or missiles, they can be attacked.

The Iranians may also have access to non-public records, although exactly what they are and how they are accessed is not yet known.

Those attacks now include the Indian Ocean and the attack on December 23 by an Iranian drone against the Chem Pluto, a “Liberia-flagged, Japanese-owned, and Netherlands-operated” chemical tanker was hit “by a one-way attack drone fired from Iran” some 200 nautical miles (370km) off the coast of India, according to the US Defense Department.

A British maritime security firm, AMBREY, however, says the Chem Pluto has some Israeli affiliation. It is not clear as to the source of Ambrey’s information.

The public record on the ship shows it is owned by S S Offshore Pvt Ltd, a small firm in Mumbai, India. Maritime Tracker shows that the ship (as of this writing) is off the west coast of India and is not under command, meaning it is under tow.

Track of the Chem Pluto Image: https://www.maritimebulletin.net/2023/12/23/tanker-hit-by-drone-damaged-in-arabia-sea/

The above suggests that culling intelligence on ship ownership requires considerable effort. The Iranians have put a significant effort into picking out the targets, going well beyond easily obtained information.

Exactly how the Iranians and Houthis knew about Chem Pluto’s possible Israeli ownership is not clear but Chem Pluto was certainly broadcasting its location using AIS (as the current tracker shows).

The ship was hit by a drone, reportedly a KAS-04 made by Iran’s Kimia Part Sivan Company (KIPAS). This drone is both a surveillance drone and a loitering munition. It has long range but is slow flying, using a single pusher propeller.

US Central Command believes that the Houthis are assisted by Iran in locating US warships in the Red Sea. The Iranians have positioned a spy ship (masquerading as a civilian ship), the MV Saviz.

According to US government sources, the MV Saviz is equipped with intelligence domes and antennas. The ship carries 3 speedboats which provide untraceable communications with Yemen.

MV Saviz has been on station for a number of years and Israel has tried to destroy it. At one time, Yemen had high-end coastal radars (made by Italy’s Finmeccanica, now Leonardo), but these were apparently destroyed by US Tomahawk missiles in 2016 after the Houthis overtook the Red Sea coastal area.

The MV Saviz is an Iranian-flagged general cargo vessel used as an offshore surveillance, command and liaison base by Iranian forces operating in the Red Sea. Analysis suggests that it is primarily deployed in support of Houthi Navy fighting in the civil war in Yemen. Saviz was operated as a bulk cargo carrier until recently when it was repurposed to support covert operations. It retains its cover identity as a cargo ship. Photo: H I Sutton, http://www.hisutton.com/Saviz.html

The liquidation of these radars means that it would be impossible for the Houthis to locate US warships without additional help. That means the MV Saviz is very important because it has high-end radars and can intercept communications from US warships.

Clearly, the Houthi-Iran effort is not something ginned up on the spur of the moment.

It seems the attack on both commercial ships and US warships is part of a highly planned and well-coordinated effort, the collection of information not always readily available (such as a ship’s ownership) and the ability to coordinate AIS tracking with radar-derived and communications intelligence.

Sooner or later, the US and its partners will need to deal with the threat to commercial and military ships, in the Red Sea and now also the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, Iran has announced it may extend the threat to the Strait of Gibraltar and the Mediterranean Sea.

Stephen Bryen, who served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the
US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense
for policy, currently is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute.

This article was originally published on his Weapons and Security Substack. It is republished with kind permission.

Two missing at sea after scuba tour boat sinks

By: Barkar Nash

On: December 24, 2023

In: South-East Asia

PUBLISHED : 24 Dec 2023 at 11:37

A Thai national and a foreign tourist are missing following a scuba diving tour mishap off the coast of the southern province of Phangnga yesterday, police said.

The Thai Maritime Enforcement Coordination Centre (Thai-MECC) received a report at 9am that the diving boat Porn Sawan had sunk after an accident near Torinla Island, also known as Koh Kai.

The incident took place just outside the Surin islands, about four nautical miles from the mainland, police said. With 18 people on board, the boat departed from Tap Lamung Port for the excursion.

Responding to the vessel’s distress call, the fishing boat Porn Supranee 9 managed to assist 16 people to safety. However, two passengers, one Thai national and the other identified as a foreign tourist, remain unaccounted for.

Search operations are ongoing for the pair.

Distress (Page 4)

results of the civil war in Syria and Yemen

situation of Palestinians