Commentary: Does India’s disruption of the global rice market pose new threat to food security?

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BALANCING DOMESTIC NEEDS WITH EXPORTS

As chair of the 2023 G20, and with Indonesia’s successful 2022 G20 Summit still fresh in mind, India seeks to balance domestic needs with export reliability.

As the Indian shock to the world rice market unfolds, three countries are in the spotlight.

First, the question remains whether Indonesia will receive the full 1 million tonnes of rice it contracted from India. If it does, that will calm the whole world rice market.

Second, the status of the Philippines’ rice stocks is crucial. A number of experienced technocrats in the Philippine Cabinet have likely planned for this contingency.

Third, Vietnam’s export patterns warrant scrutiny. While its crop outlook seems good, there is always the danger that the Vietnamese government might restrict exports in response to domestic hoarding. Managing price expectations in Vietnam will be critical.

In a rice emergency, all eyes inevitably turn to China. Its rice production has suffered significantly from heat and floods. The exact level of rice stocks is a state secret but they are by far the largest in the world. Still, they are dispersed geographically, which somewhat limits central government access and control.

Food security in China is a high priority, and with both wheat and rice prices rising, it is hard to tell what the Chinese response will be. Any effort to pre-emptively procure more imports will spook the market.

In a real rice panic, Japan might play a similar role as in 2007. Then, the mere announcement by Japan’s prime minister that Japan would start negotiations with the Philippines to sell some of its surplus WTO rice was sufficient to prick the speculative bubble. This sent world rice prices sliding.

Japanese rice stocks are smaller now than in 2007, but even an offer of half a million tonnes to the neediest buyers in the region could calm any panic buying.

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Housing policy changes benefit singles who want to live near parents, but some say more can be done

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But analysts and housing agents do not foresee a disruption in the resale HDB market.

Mogul.sg chief research officer Nicholas Mak said that singles make up a small minority of buyers of resale HDB flats.

“Even if some singles switch from buying resale flats to applying for BTO flats, the numbers will be too small to adversely affect the HDB resale market,” he said.
 
Those that will continue to buy from the resale market include singles who want HDB flats that are larger than two-room flats, and those who cannot or choose not to wait for the BTO flats, which could take a few years to construct, Mr Mak noted.

PropNex CEO Ismail Gafoor welcomed the changes but said that policies could be further relaxed. 

“We believe, however, there may be scope to further relax the policy to allow singles to buy three-room BTO flats in any location, as some of them may find a partner and get married later in life, or may need more space given flexible work-from-home arrangements,” he said.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, Huttons’ senior director of data analytics said that in addition to not being offered larger flats, singles may be disappointed as the age limit of 35 years old was not lowered.

That’s the case for one single who is in a quandary because she does not meet the age to buy a flat.

Ms Jessica Wong, 34, said it was “commendable” that the government was making an effort to meet the housing needs of singles but it does not solve her urgent housing need due to her family situation.

“I am being chased out of my family home this year,” she said. “My dad is telling me I have to move out.”

Ms Wong, who works in the food & beverage industry, has to wait a year before she can apply for a new flat or buy one on the resale market, but said that condominiums are out of her reach. When she wrote to HDB asking to waive the age restriction, she was rejected.

HDB in its reply to her, dated Jul 28, said: “While we understand your desire to buy a flat on your own, we regret that we are unable to accede to the appeal. Meanwhile, you may consider staying with your friends or relatives, or renting a room/flat from the open market.”

She feels that these housing restrictions make her feel “less important” than married couples and less rooted to Singapore.

“If they had lowered the age restriction for resale, I could have started looking for an HDB and be on my home ownership journey much earlier,” she said.

“Now I’m delayed compared to married couples and I have to look at another 20 to 30 years to pay off my housing loan, which will affect my retirement plan as well.”

Dr Lee thinks that in the middle term, a larger supply of two-room flats or other forms of housing, such as co-living, may be needed as the number of singles is expected to grow.

“However, governmental agencies must strike a balance. On the one hand, they must address this burgeoning demand, and on the other, they face tangible supply limitations, primarily driven by land scarcity,” he said.

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Gas prices rise on fears of strikes in Australia

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LNG tankerGetty Images
By Ben King & Noor Nanji
Business reporters, BBC News

The prospect of a possible strike at a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Australia has pushed wholesale gas prices up in Europe.

The Offshore Alliance union warned that a strike at the North West Shelf facility could start as early as 2 September if no deal on pay is reached.

Benchmark gas prices for the EU and UK rose around 10% on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

Prices soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but have since fallen.

There are fears that strike action at Woodside Energy Group’s North West Shelf facility could cause disruption to shipments of LNG from Australia, which is a key global supplier.

Workers at two other offshore LNG facilities, Gorgon and Wheatstone, owned by Chevron, are also voting on strike action, with results expected on Thursday.

Together the three plants make up about 10% of the world’s supply of LNG.

Ben McWilliams, an affiliate fellow at the think tank Bruegel, warned the strikes might impact the prices globally of LNG.

Speaking to the BBC’s Newsday programme earlier this month, Mr McWilliams said: “Australia typically supplies Asia, but if these strikes were to go ahead, and Australian gas were cut to Asian consumers, we would see Asian consumers turning around and looking, for example, to Qatar and competing with European buyers there.”

Mr McWilliams said that if that were to happen there would be a “knock-on effect on prices”.

Following the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia slashed supplies of natural gas to Europe, which led countries to seek out alternative sources of energy.

Many countries are relying on LNG to fill the gap.

Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG. The others are Qatar and the US.

Last week, Cornwall Insight predicted that higher gas prices resulting from the Australian uncertainty would contribute to a significant rise in the Ofgem price cap in January.

It forecast a cap of £2,082.56 for a typical annual household bill for the first quarter of 2024, a rise from its £1,925.71 forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023.

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Tunnelling works completed for Phase 2 of Singapore’s sewage ‘superhighway’

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CHALLENGING PROCESS

PUB said that tunnelling work for Phase 2 of the project “was a challenging process” through highly built-up areas. 

“The tunnelling works had to be carried out by five different contractors, using pioneering construction methods and smart technologies for safe and smooth operations,” the agency said.

“This served to greatly reduce disruption to above-ground infrastructure and the public.”

Construction of Phase 2 also saw the implementation of new features that will allow authorities to ensure the integrity of deep tunnels and maintain them more easily.

“These include the use of concrete resistant to microbiological-influenced corrosion, isolation gates to allow for flow diversion, fibre optic cables for remote monitoring of a tunnel’s structural integrity and the use of air jumpers to control air flow within the tunnels,” PUB said.

The Tuas Water Reclamation Plant, a key component of Phase 2, is expected to be ready by 2026.

The plant will be located with the National Environment Agency’s Integrated Waste Management Facility to form Tuas Nexus, Singapore’s first integrated used water and solid waste treatment facility that will be fully energy self-sufficient, PUB said.

In a statement, PUB chief executive Goh Si Hou described the DTSS as a “game-changer” for “one of the most water-stressed countries in the world”.

“The Deep Tunnel Sewerage System is not only an engineering feat, but a key pillar in strengthening Singapore’s water resilience to meet the long-term challenges of climate change and growing water needs,” he said.

“This has been made possible through the bold vision and innovation of our pioneers, and decades of meticulous planning and hard work by our planners, engineers and contractors.

“We look forward to the upcoming completion of our water reclamation and NEWater plants, which will realise the full potential of the DTSS in the years to come.”

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Krayon Digital and Sayfer partner to enhance Web3 security | FinanceAsia

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Krayon Digital, a digital multi-party computation (MPC) wallet solutions provider to start-up and enterprise clients, recently announced its strategic partnership with Israeli blockchain security consulting company, Sayfer.

“The partnership between Krayon and Sayfer is the result of a shared ambition – to revolutionise the security landscape within digital asset management,” Hamilton Keats, CEO and co-founder of Krayon told FinanceAsia.

Typically, a cryptocurrency or digital asset wallet is paired with a single private key that authorises transactions. However, this means that if the private key is stolen or lost, it creates a single point of failure where all digital assets secured by the key are exposed to risk.

Krayon, on the other hand, provides digital wallet solutions based on MPC technology: a cryptographic protocol that enables multiple parties to contribute to a database and run computations on its basis in a secure manner, without disclosing their own input to others.

The implementation of MPC technology involves splitting private keys into pieces, or shards, that can be distributed among multiple trusted parties, such as different departments within an organisation or even different geographical locations, Keats explained.

Such deployment avoids a single party having full access to a whole private key, which greatly reduces the risk of unauthorised crypto asset access or theft.

The partnership with Sayfer will enable the development and implementation of “a comprehensive suite of [security] measures”, including end-to-end encryption, secure key generation, storage and recovery mechanisms, multi-factor authentication, and continuous security audits.

The collaboration roots from an initial all-round assessment on Krayon’s protocols, where both parties saw a lack of attention to private key management in the field, Keats told FA.

“We’ve seen so many people dealing with tens of millions of dollars [in digital wallets], but with no private key management or private key security involved,” he said.

“Our joint efforts will bring together Sayfer’s expertise in key management audits and Krayon’s cutting-edge MPC technology to deliver a secure and seamless experience for our clients,” Nir Duan, Sayfer’s CEO, commented in the release.

Blockchain and beyond

Discussing trends across the Web3 space, Keats pointed to asset tokenisation as the most exciting use of blockchain technology across Asia’s capital markets. “This revolutionary process will completely streamline global financial markets and enhance transparency.”

Although issues around security, regulatory compliance, and private key management remain some of the main challenges for the success of Web3, Keats is bullish on regulatory progress across the region.

He noted that key hubs, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are building friendly innovation framework to create regional sandboxes, and some financial institutions are seeking to tokenise their assets. These, Keats said, send promising signals of “a massive opportunity” for players building the digital asset space.

Looking ahead, Krayon aims to make MPC a more accessible and flexible solution available across the digital asset management world. The key to this lies in improving usability, which includes simplifying the complicated wallet set-up process, and offering flexibility in distribution adjustments, Keats told FA.

Embedding MPC wallet solutions into broader digital asset capabilities, such as a consumer-facing app built upon the same software development kit (SDK), is a long-term goal for the partnership.

As enterprises usually manage larger amount of asset than individual users, the ability to recover the losses, or to prevent insecurity in the first place, is crucial, Keats reiterated.

“Our ultimate goal is to offer individual clients the same level of services as we are able to offer start-ups and enterprises,” he concluded.

¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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Lucasfilm to shut Singapore operations due to ‘economic factors’ affecting industry

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SINGAPORE: Lucasfilm is winding down operations in Singapore after nearly 20 years in the country, with parent company Disney citing economic factors affecting the industry. Lucasfilm’s visual effects and animation studio, Industrial Light & Magic (ILM), has been operating in Singapore since 2006. The studio was founded as Lucasfilm Animation Singapore in 2004 toContinue Reading

Presidential Election candidates urged to guard against foreign interference, cybersecurity threats

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Additionally, MHA, CSA and ELD warned of cybersecurity risks ahead of the election.

Instances of malicious cyber activity – such as disruption, defacement or data theft – have been reported during elections of other countries, which have affected their electorates’ confidence in the election processes.

Singapore, as a highly digitally connected nation, must guard against attempts to disrupt the election processes or cast doubts on the integrity of the Presidential Election, they added.

Preventive measures to mitigate cybersecurity risks include establishing strict access control and remote access privileges to digital assets, enforcing strong password management and performing regular software updates to protect campaign devices from known vulnerabilities.

Candidates should also raise cyber awareness among campaign staff and develop cybersecurity monitoring and incident response capabilities.

“Presidential Election candidates play an important role in safeguarding the integrity of the election,” MHA, CSA and ELD said.

“They are also advised to stay vigilant by monitoring their platforms for suspicious activity and not re-share posts or tweets of suspicious provenance.”

They urged candidates to make a police report immediately and keep the ELD informed if they detect or suspect foreign interference in the election, or that their accounts or systems have been compromised or misused.

GUIDELINES ON POLITICAL FILMS, ADVERTISING

In a separate news release, ELD and the Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) reminded members of the public on the rules and prohibitions on party political films, online election advertising, election surveys and exit polls.

This includes the prohibition on making, exhibiting or distributing party political films, such as those intended or likely to affect voting in a political election in Singapore.

Individuals who make or publish such films are subject to investigations and prosecution, ELD and IMDA said. However, certain types of films – for example, live recordings of events held in accordance with the law and those made solely for news reporting by a licensed broadcasting service – are exempt.

The agencies also said the publishing of paid online election advertising is reserved for candidates and their election agents, with all paid advertising to be declared to the Returning Officer and abide by the published-by requirements.

“This ensures accountability and prevents the use of paid advertisements as a conduit for foreign interference in the elections process, or to bypass the election expense limits for candidates,” ELD and IMDA said.

Singaporeans will head to the polls to vote for a new president on Sep 1 if more than one candidate qualifies to run for the post.

Four potential candidates – former Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, businessman George Goh, former GIC chief investment officer Ng Kok Song and former NTUC Income CEO Tan Kin Lian – have announced their bids.

Nomination Day is set for Aug 22, and a cooling-off period where all campaigning must stop will be observed between the eve of Polling Day and when polls close. 

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Staged videos fuel religious hate and misogyny in India

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Screenshots of staged clip shows a man uncovering a person carrying a child and wearing a burkaTwitter
By Akhil Ranjan
BBC Global Disinformation Team

In a video shared and watched by millions of people in India, a man is seen attacking a person who is wearing a black burka and holding a child. He then forcibly removes the burka to reveal a man.

The message accompanying the clip warns in Hindi that people should “be aware” of criminals using the burka – a veil used by Muslim women around the world – to disguise themselves and “kidnap children”.

The video, published on YouTube earlier this year, has been viewed more than 29 million times before it was deleted.

But it did not show real events. It was a dramatisation – a scripted performance with amateur actors.

Scripted videos, apparently created for entertainment, are increasingly being shared on social media as true events in India. Often accompanying the videos are false claims that stoke religious hatred and misogyny.

India has witnessed growing tension among religious communities, particularly between Hindus and Muslims, since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in May 2014. Many of the false narratives that target these communities also encourage moral policing against women.

This trend of dramatised videos has reached multiple Indian languages, including Hindi, Tamil, Malayalam, Gujarati, Marathi and Telugu. Sometimes, local media outlets have also mistaken staged videos for news.

Many of the staged videos show people wearing burkas in order to kidnap children. This could have real-life consequences – over the past few years, authorities in many Indian states have had to issue warnings against fake news after several people were attacked by mobs believing them to be kidnappers.

Why are these videos dangerous?

These dramatised videos are accompanied by disinformation tactics which may confuse viewers on social media. Some have disclaimers but they may be hidden in the middle or the end of the videos.

Most times, the text is in English, which is not always understood by viewers.

According to a fact-check by Alt News, the original clip of the man wearing a burka – which was later deleted by its creator – actually had a disclaimer stating it was “a work of fiction”. But it was visible only for a second.

Other creators add CCTV templates to make the videos seem more realistic.

One such video, which went viral in December 2021, was shared alongside claims without evidence in multiple languages that Muslim men were trying to intoxicate Hindu girls by spiking their food.

In the comment section below the video, many users appeared to believe it was true, making Islamophobic remarks. “Beware of love jihad,” commented a user.

“Love jihad” refers to a conspiracy theory which claims that Muslim men are wooing Hindu women to convert them to Islam.

Most videos made by Hyderabad-based creator Venkat Seepana feature a recording sign and time-stamp like CCTV clips. His YouTube channel has over 1.2 million subscribers and more than 400 videos.

One clip depicted a tailor misbehaving with a woman. It was shared multiple times on Twitter and Facebook with claims that it showed a Muslim man mistreating a Hindu woman: “Hindu sisters and daughters are requested not to go to the shops of Muslims, they are people with a bad mentality.”

Seepana's video

YouTube

Seepana told the BBC that he made these videos to “spread awareness and show real-life situations”.

Alishan Jafri, a journalist and disinformation researcher, says that dramatisations that go viral may not lead to physical violence. But they deepen existing religious biases.

“These videos are adding fuel to the fire in the society that is already divided and polarised. Most of these videos are targeted against certain communities, particularly Muslims, and when they go viral, they contribute to structural violence against the minority community,” he says.

Sometimes, these scripted videos – which spread confusion in the first place – are used to sow even more disinformation online.

Some of them portray illicit relationships between friends, family members and people with a huge age difference.

Two such staged videos were widely shared in May with false claims attacking the Hindu community.

The first one depicted a man dressed in saffron – a colour associated with Hinduism – who claims he is marrying his sister.

In the second video, the same woman is shown standing next to him in a burka and he says he is marrying her to convert her to Hinduism.

On Twitter the clips were used by some to claim that this was a Hindu man who was making his sister pretend to be a Muslim woman.

Both the man and woman seen in the two videos appear in several other videos portraying different characters.

Screenshot of two staged clips show man dressed in saffron and woman next to each other

Twitter

The original clips can be found on a YouTube channel with more than 400,000 followers which commonly posts scripted videos.

When the BBC asked Vikram Mishra, the channel’s owner, if he was aware that his videos were perceived as real, he replied: “We all want to become a hit. I make videos that do well according to the trends of society.”

He said the videos are created only for “entertainment and views, as our team of 12 people earn their livelihood from our YouTube channel”.

The BBC also reached out to social media platforms with questions about their policies on dramatised videos shared out of context.

A Meta spokesperson said they have “clear rules prohibiting content on Facebook that incites violence” and that they remove anything that breaks these rules.

YouTube too said the platform has “strict policies prohibiting violent or graphic content”, misinformation, and “misleading or deceptive content with serious risk of egregious harm”.

X, formerly known as Twitter, sent an auto-reply that they would “get back” soon.

How can you spot scripted videos?

Many of the videos look and feel staged, and they are also produced and shared in other countries. But they are believed by Indians and go viral in the country because they “cater to more conservative audiences”, says Harish Nair, managing editor of Fact Crescendo, which operates in India and other Asian countries.

He also believes Indians “share videos which they believe are issued in the public interest”.

According to him, staged videos are not the prevailing misinformation trend in India. But they have “a huge impact on society as they validate their pre-existing beliefs and sentiments”.

Prateek Waghre, policy director of Internet Freedom Foundation, a Delhi-based digital rights advocacy group, agrees. “Low media literacy is one aspect of the problem, but this is happening in a society where there are existing social divisions and people are already primed to think like that.”

But there are ways to check if a video is actually scripted.

Ruby Dhingra, managing editor of India-based multilingual fact-check media Newschecker, said viewers should be wary of camera angles, locations, reactions and the language used in the video. They can reveal if the people caught in action are hiding from the camera or posing for it, and if they are speaking naturally or being loud and overacting.

Dhingra also notes that it is “highly unlikely” that an incident will be captured by multiple cameras for its entire length and without any disruption, like the scripted videos.

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Biden announces curbs on US investments in China

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The Treasury is considering a notification requirement for US investments in Chinese entities involved in less advanced semiconductors, and activities relating to certain types of artificial intelligence. China could exploit US investments to further its ability to produce sensitive technologies critical to military modernisation, the Treasury Department said. But itContinue Reading