Commentary: What to make of China not appointing new foreign minister at ‘two sessions’

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LIU JIANCHAO CHANGES TO QIN GANG

Both Mr. Liu and Mr. Qin have worked for the unusual agency’s information department, which is where all spokespersons get training, and they share similar personality and experience.

In contrast to other ambassadors, foreign government spokespersons need better communication skills and language proficiency, especially with foreign journalists.

Mr. Liu, who attended Oxford University in the 1980s and spent four years in the United Kingdom in the 1990s, and the two people are somewhat fluent in English. They exhibit the calm assurance that some Chinese officials lack when confronted by local and foreign visitors.

Both are funny and funny. In a press briefing in 2008, Mr. Liu remarked,” Sometimes I need to watch out, not just for who is raising their hands, but also for who is taking off their boots,” after an Iraqi writer threw his boots at then US President George W. Bush. When Mr. Qin became China’s adviser to the US, he joked about being referred to as a wolf hero. The internet has stopped calling me that way now that I’ve returned as foreign secretary. He said next time,” I feel a little lost,” he said. &nbsp,

Mr. Liu’s hard actions led the party’s strategy in the mid-2010s – named Operation Fox Hunt – to bring back corrupt authorities from abroad, despite Mr. Qin’s speech being occasionally fierier. Mr. Liu demonstrated his bargaining prowess by exposing himself as a captives and recovering significant sums of stolen money overseas. &nbsp,

Mr. Liu gained regional management experience by working as a deputy gathering director in a rural county of Liaoning state, unlike Mr. Qin and many other job officials.

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Commentary: Oppenheimer is best picture at Oscars - and a lost opportunity

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One chapter of the book Resisting The Nuclear: Art And Activism Across the Pacific, a 1946 film that celebrates the significance of technology in US military can, discusses how Oppenheimer and Albert Einstein recreated the Trinity check. They point out that Oppenheimer appeared stilted in the film’s clips while Einstein appeared inattentive.

The two academics were presumably uneasy with their newly responsibilities as advocates for a terrifying, terrifying systems. If Oppenheimer goes further into this personal distress, the movie keeps firmly in place the connection between the explosives ‘ creators and the damage they caused.

THE BOMBS ARE NOT DISCRIMINATE.

In the end, movies like Oppenheimer offer little, if any, fresh insight into the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks and their implications.

More than 200, 000 people died, and those killed included Koreans who had served in Japan as military soldiers or forced laborers as well as residents who had lost their lives.

Koreans make up one in every ten victims of the weapon, but the US state has not recognized them as victims of US military attacks. They continue to struggle to receive medical care for their long-term energy illness.

Additionally, according to my reserve about Asian American victims of the bombings, between 3, 000 and 4, 000 of the bombing victims were Americans of Asian descent. The majority of them were youngsters who were residing with their people or students who had attended Japanese schools before the battle because US schools had become more and more biased toward Asian American students.

These non-Japanese individuals, many of whom were born in the US, have been known to scientists and protesters since at least the 1990s. So it makes me feel strange to watch a movie that only depicts the effects of the weapons in the perspective of the US and its allies, Japan. The bombs did n’t discriminate between friends and enemies, as my work shows.

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Commentary: Chinese women are breaking period taboos to campaign for cheaper tampons and pads

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TABOO, IGNORANCE AND AVOIDING DISCUSSION ON PERIODS

Period blood has long been falsely regarded as impure in China, with the potential to contaminate anyone who comes into contact with it.

Menstruating women were traditionally prohibited from entering temples, even today women in some places are banned from worship during their periods. To avoid the social discomfort associated with uttering the word “menstruation”, women often used euphemisms such as “the big aunt” or “that”.

From the early 2000s, Chinese feminists began to tackle shame and taboos around menstruation, spurred on by the influence of Western feminist movements. One notable example is the debut of the dance Menarche (named after the first menstrual cycle), which featured in the Chinese adaptation of The Vagina Monologues, in 2003.

A Chinese social media campaign in February 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, drew attention to the desperate need for women doctors and nurses to have access to sanitary pads and period pants. Many female medical workers were not given time to change their sanitary pads during their long working hours at hospitals, or did not have access to supplies. A public campaign for donations of sanitary towels or period pants drew support, but critics argued they were nonessential items.

Another issue is that high prices of sanitary items leave many girls unable to afford them. In August 2020, a Weibo user shared a screenshot of bulk sanitary napkins purchased online. The post prompted a wider discussion about how many girls in rural areas didn’t have access to these products, partly because of cost but also because of taboos.

According to one report, 5 per cent of girls in poorer rural areas across China did not use sanitary products, while 13 per cent felt ashamed about asking their parents for money to buy them. Many girls in rural areas were using rough paper, old towels or worn-out clothing.

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Commentary: A summit between Japan and North Korea? About time

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BOSTON, Massachusetts: North Korea keeps on surprising. While Pyongyang is busy erasing all references to unification with South Korea, it is extending an olive branch to Japan.

It all began early in 2024 when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent a rare message of sympathy for a deadly earthquake in central Japan to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Kishida welcomed the message, saying that he felt a “strong need” for the two countries to improve their relations.

Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong responded to Kishida’s remark positively. She went as far as welcoming Kishida to visit Pyongyang as long as Japan did not lay a “stumbling block” – a subtle reference to the issue of past abductions of Japanese nationals by North Korean agents. Kishida is personally supervising high-level discussions with North Korea to make a Kim-Kishida summit a reality.

North Korea’s outreach to Japan after more than four years of silence is causing much speculation about Pyongyang’s true intention and whether such a summit would materialise.

Four years ago, I wrote about the prospect of a Japan-North Korea summit between Kim and Japan’s former prime minister Shinzo Abe on the precipice of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. At that time, North Korea had already met leaders from the United States, South Korea, China, Russia, Singapore and Vietnam. It was thus natural that Abe would be next on Kim’s list.

However, two factors ended the prospect of a Japan-North Korea summit in its infancy. First, neither country was able to overcome the abduction issue. Abe previously declared the return of the remaining abductees would be the precondition for normalisation and sanctions relief per the 2002 Pyongyang Declaration.

After the failed Hanoi summit in February 2019, Abe softened the precondition in an offer of dialogue to Kim, but the North Korean leader was not interested because Kim understood that so long as the United States did not agree to sanctions relief, there was little Japan could provide North Korea.

Then the COVID-19 pandemic happened. While North Korea had to close its borders to fight the virus, Japan had to cancel the 2020 Summer Olympics. There were no sparks like the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics that could rekindle a Japan-North Korea dialogue.

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Commentary: Who is really in charge in Thailand?

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Thaksin is still in the wilderness, though. In a media interview with him in Seoul on May 21, 2015, he is also facing two criminal charges for insulting King Bhumibol, the preceding king. Thaksin has also been accused of violating the Computer Law of 2007 for causing false information to travel on cultural media from his meeting in Seoul in addition to the lese- guess law under Section 112 of the Criminal Code, which has a jail term ranging from 3 to 15 years. A peak sentence under this law can be up to 20 years in prison.

When he met with a top attorney to discuss the case on February 19, Thaksin denied any wrongdoing. The Attorney-General may make a fresh decision regarding how to deal with the Thaksin case, which will be made on April 10.

A unique Attorney-General publicly stated his official opinion that the case may be prosecuted in soon 2015. This was in attente of Thaksin’s imprisonment, who was then exiled and residing primarily in Dubai.

Thaksin has been accused of breaking the lese-majeste laws before for the first time. Due to lack of information, many similar cases against him had all been dismissed.

In the fourth month of August, Thaksin can begin counting the days until he can legitimately regain his independence if the situation against him is dropped like it did before.

In the interim, Thaksin may be busy contacting tourists to ask for better positions in a new Cabinet portfolio. Thai officials are aware of who is actually in charge.

The Thailand Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, is led by Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a Visiting Senior Fellow and acting representative. The ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute’s website, Fulcrum, originally contained this remark.

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Commentary: China’s economy will probably get worse before it gets better

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WAY OUT FOR CHINA?

There are expectations for the Chinese government to do more to boost the economy.

Its focus can be on more than supply-side support, such as boosting manufacturing capability. Demand-side policies, such as tax incentives for durable consumer goods and lowering costs for households, can stimulate consumption and keep up the economic momentum.

Improving confidence is essential, but that is easier said than done. The household perspective often takes time to respond to policy changes and economic data.

For example, new home sales have hovered at 50 per cent of the average of 2019 to 2021, the level before regulatory changes, despite laxer policies introduced to avoid the collapse of indebted property developers, such as Country Garden. It is difficult to repair the damage to confidence, and the government could be finetune regulations on a greater scale.

There is also the challenge of China’s increasing trade-off between security and economic growth. Easing geopolitical tensions would help households reduce future uncertainty, improve the export-driven provinces’ economies and attract foreign investment into China. But this seems an unlikely bet.

If hopes are pinned on consumption to drive China’s economy recovery, it will ultimately depend on the revival of animal spirits and restoring households’ optimism about the future. This will take more than an upbeat start to the Year of the Dragon. China’s economy will probably get worse before it gets better.

Gary Ng is senior economist at Natixis and research fellow at Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS).

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Commentary: Why has Hong Kong been snubbed by Taylor Swift and Coldplay?

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This is not the only event that has turned into a PR crisis for the Hong Kong government. The city held the FIA World Rallycross Championship for the first time in November 2023. Though the race is not at the same level of Formula 1, it received much hype because the race track was next to Victoria Harbour.

Unfortunately, the event was delayed on its first day as the organisers experienced construction difficulties. The track  was also shortened by one-third, making it the shortest leg in the Championship’s season.

THE ABILITY TO ORGANISE MEGA EVENTS

These disappointments make some locals wonder if Hong Kong has lost the ability to organise mega events. There are similarities between the race and the friendly football match – neither organiser had prior experience running events of that scale. Despite that, the government promised to grant them subsidies and left it up to the organisers to pull the event off.

The poor monitoring was shown in the post-match response, in which the government did not have much information about the contract and negotiations between the organiser and Inter Miami.

The government says that Hong Kong will see over 80 mega events in the first six months of 2024. Indeed, not all of them will be chaotic. Still, will events resuscitate Hong Kong’s embattled tourism sector?

Take UK designer Anya Hindmarch’s Chubby Hearts art installation in Hong Kong as an example. Funding for the art installation, which saw large heart-shaped balloons pop up in several spots across the city, totalled HK$7.8 million.

The art installation took place across 11 days, starting from Valentine’s Day, and attracted decent feedback with photos on social media.

But is it enough to attract tourists to Hong Kong? Probably not.

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Commentary: With Prabowo poised to be next Indonesia president, his challenge is to ensure Cabinet continuity

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PRABOWO’S DIPLOMATIC STYLE

Prabowo shows more ambition in the foreign relations space, but his penchant for conflating foreign policy with defence policy may mean a “less talk, more action” approach.

Prabowo repeatedly put his defence minister hat on when quizzed about foreign policy during the candidates’ debate. While his opponents spoke about cultural diplomacy, leveraging the diplomatic network, or revitalising ASEAN, Prabowo emphasised the need to gain respect by having a powerful military. For him, the South China Sea issue is a matter of improving military capabilities. Prabowo’s style of diplomacy relies on hard, instead of soft power.

While he may have traded his strongman image for an affable grandpa to appeal to domestic voters, his tough rhetoric on foreign influence continues. Being tough on outsiders serves his patriotic image well, so one can expect a power-based approach to international relations.

The new foreign minister may be given the job of projecting an image of a strong Indonesia, one ready to defend its sovereignty rather than a team player who will abide by a set of rules. Any bilateral and multilateral engagements would be evaluated on their domestic benefits rather than their international appeal. Being seen as a responsible global citizen is less important than being seen as a strong country.

Prabowo has proven himself to be a smart political operator by successfully managing to embody both transformation and continuity. Nevertheless, his pursuit of continuity will be contingent on his Cabinet picks. Like his predecessor, he will likely use ministerial posts to entice opposition parties to switch sides.

But the exit of experienced ministers may make realising both his predecessor’s and his own ambitions difficult. Foreign policy will likely be subordinated to defence policy in the absence of a strong diplomat. After winning the hearts of Indonesian voters, it is now time for Prabowo to win the trust of the international community.

Andree Surianta is an Associate Researcher at the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies and an Australia Awards PhD scholar at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University. This commentary first appeared on Lowy Institute’s blog The Interpreter.

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Commentary: Is it ‘Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts’ all over again now that the ex-PM is out of prison?

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MANOEUVRING DAUGHTER PAETONGTARN INTO PLACE

Thaksin will also want to make use of his newfound freedom to ensure that Pheu Thai is fully behind his youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra. She was made party chief last year, and thus in a position for the prime ministerial post sometime in the future.

He does not appear to be in a hurry to remove Mr Srettha, though this could quickly change if Mr Srettha fails to get the party’s signature election pledge – the digital wallet handout scheme – pushed through.

Thaksin’s release could revive speculation that the democratic parties could put in a more energetic attempt to sideline conservative parties, principally through a resurrected alliance between Pheu Thai and the MFP.

The pro-military senators, which played a central role in blocking the MFP from forming the government last year, will end their terms in May, and the next Senate will not be able to participate in a vote for a prime minister.

Pheu Thai and the MFP may be on different sides of the parliamentary aisle, but a secret meeting between MFP-aligned figure Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Thaksin in Hong Kong last year could yet bear fruit.

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Commentary: South Koreans blame feminism for demographic collapse

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South Korea’s demographic collapse, if unaddressed, could have serious repercussions. Even if Seoul could muddle through the economic and social repercussions, the resulting population decline would dramatically shift the regional balance of power.

AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT AND NATIONAL EMERGENCY

South Korea still relies on conscription to maintain its military strength. The number of draftees, which represents around half of the force, could fall from 330,000 soldiers in 2020 to 240,000 by 2036 and 186,000 by 2039. Without radical changes, sustaining South Korea’s formidable military posture will become impossible.

As such, population decline represents an existential threat to South Korea. Its turbulent neighbour, North Korea, maintains around 1 million troops. China, Asia’s aspiring hegemon, has 2 million.

China, North Korea and Russia all have nuclear weapons. An ageing and emptying South Korea would be an easy target for coercion. Pyongyang may even conclude that invading a crumbling South Korea to reunify the Korean Peninsula would be a cakewalk.

During the 2000s, the Russian government feared that its population’s low fertility would end its status as a great power and weaken its defence capabilities. It made the issue a national priority and managed to significantly reverse the trend.

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, France had a stagnating population and faced a growing Germany. Here, too, efficient statecraft succeeded in redressing the country’s demography. It is important to note that in both cases, feminism had little to do with low natality.

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