South Korea’s demographic collapse, if unaddressed, could have serious repercussions. Even if Seoul could muddle through the economic and social repercussions, the resulting population decline would dramatically shift the regional balance of power.
AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT AND NATIONAL EMERGENCY
South Korea still relies on conscription to maintain its military strength. The number of draftees, which represents around half of the force, could fall from 330,000 soldiers in 2020 to 240,000 by 2036 and 186,000 by 2039. Without radical changes, sustaining South Korea’s formidable military posture will become impossible.
As such, population decline represents an existential threat to South Korea. Its turbulent neighbour, North Korea, maintains around 1 million troops. China, Asia’s aspiring hegemon, has 2 million.
China, North Korea and Russia all have nuclear weapons. An ageing and emptying South Korea would be an easy target for coercion. Pyongyang may even conclude that invading a crumbling South Korea to reunify the Korean Peninsula would be a cakewalk.
During the 2000s, the Russian government feared that its population’s low fertility would end its status as a great power and weaken its defence capabilities. It made the issue a national priority and managed to significantly reverse the trend.
In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, France had a stagnating population and faced a growing Germany. Here, too, efficient statecraft succeeded in redressing the country’s demography. It is important to note that in both cases, feminism had little to do with low natality.