PRABOWO’S DIPLOMATIC STYLE
Prabowo shows more ambition in the foreign relations space, but his penchant for conflating foreign policy with defence policy may mean a “less talk, more action” approach.
Prabowo repeatedly put his defence minister hat on when quizzed about foreign policy during the candidates’ debate. While his opponents spoke about cultural diplomacy, leveraging the diplomatic network, or revitalising ASEAN, Prabowo emphasised the need to gain respect by having a powerful military. For him, the South China Sea issue is a matter of improving military capabilities. Prabowo’s style of diplomacy relies on hard, instead of soft power.
While he may have traded his strongman image for an affable grandpa to appeal to domestic voters, his tough rhetoric on foreign influence continues. Being tough on outsiders serves his patriotic image well, so one can expect a power-based approach to international relations.
The new foreign minister may be given the job of projecting an image of a strong Indonesia, one ready to defend its sovereignty rather than a team player who will abide by a set of rules. Any bilateral and multilateral engagements would be evaluated on their domestic benefits rather than their international appeal. Being seen as a responsible global citizen is less important than being seen as a strong country.
Prabowo has proven himself to be a smart political operator by successfully managing to embody both transformation and continuity. Nevertheless, his pursuit of continuity will be contingent on his Cabinet picks. Like his predecessor, he will likely use ministerial posts to entice opposition parties to switch sides.
But the exit of experienced ministers may make realising both his predecessor’s and his own ambitions difficult. Foreign policy will likely be subordinated to defence policy in the absence of a strong diplomat. After winning the hearts of Indonesian voters, it is now time for Prabowo to win the trust of the international community.
Andree Surianta is an Associate Researcher at the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies and an Australia Awards PhD scholar at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University. This commentary first appeared on Lowy Institute’s blog The Interpreter.