HONG KONG: Hong Kong announced on Thursday, January 4, that it would not buy any residential or commercial property during the first three months of 2024 due to high vacancy rates and sluggish industry sentiment. Analysts noted that this would be the first time the government of Hong Kong hasContinue Reading
TOKYO- Despite all the issues regarding the US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China and Bank for Japan are the source of the actual play this season.
The task of stabilizing Asia’s largest economy and fending off negative forces without re-inflating property bubble falls to PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng in Beijing. As Japan flirts with a recession, BOJ Governor , Kazuo Ueda, is under pressure to end quantitative easing ( QE ) over in Tokyo.
Failure by either of the best policymakers could have unpredictable effects on the international economic order.
That is not to say that the Fed cannot slam markets in Seoul and New York with even the tiniest hint of budgetary action. The typical wisdom has swung with mind-boggling rate in recent days, from more level hikes to extreme easing in the coming months.
As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell chooses whether to applaud or upset investors, dangers abound. If you relax very soon, inflation may last forever. The Fed may increase the likelihood of a recession and potential bank problems if rates are cut too soon.
However, at the beginning of 2024, the difficulties authorities in Beijing and Tokyo are facing are much more complicated.
China is dealing with an intensifying real estate crisis, high rates of youth unemployment, negative pressures, and a Communist Party that is losing support from continent residents and overseas investors. In general, all of those pressures may support forceful price reductions.
When you add President Xi Jinping’s deleveraging directive, items become much more complicated. Since 2016, the transformation team at Xi has prioritized containing risks associated with a decade of excessive loans. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 180 % in 2011 to 256 % in 2017.
According to Logan Wright, chairman of China markets studies at Rhodium Group, this deleveraging plan “is the only reasonable starting point to discuss how China’s fundamental economic slowdown began.”
According to Wright,” China’s economic authorities cut record growth in half and made it much more difficult for Beijing to power the economy using its standard tools of credit-fueled investment by state-owned enterprises and regional governments” by reducing the growth of the shadow, or casual banking system.
According to Wright, “property developers continued to increase their own loans throughout the deleveraging promotion, building up an exceptional real estate bubble before it finally burst in late 2021, boosting China’s current , financial grief.” Following the global financial crisis, the deleveraging strategy marked the end of China’s unparalleled credit growth.
According to Wright,” China perhaps may have experienced a fiscal crisis much sooner had Beijing never taken the aggressive steps it did targeting shadow banks starting in 2016, as its system became increasingly difficult to regulate and was already resembling parts of the US economic system before the 2007–2008 global economic crises.”
Pan naturally does n’t want to waste money trying to slow down China’s boom-and-bust cycles. Pan wants to prevent encouraging a relapse into poor banking and borrowing practices. Additionally, his team needs to be aware that Premier Li Qiang and Xi do n’t want the yuan to fall significantly below current levels.
However, slow economic growth and low consumer prices are also urging more financial aid. Particularly when international challenges are getting worse, as evidenced by the highest , US yields, in nearly 20 years, among other indicators.
China’s economy experienced new signs of weakness in December as stock task remained subdued. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for the country fell from 49.4 in November, the third consecutive month of recession and the biggest drop in six times. Data indicate that stress on China’s services industry is also getting worse.
All of this points to the need for more signal in the short term, placing pressure on Pan’s PBOC.
In his annual New Year speech on Sunday, Xi insisted that China’s market had” sustained the speed of treatment.” However, talk of a significant new macroeconomic paying jolt was absent.  ,
While acknowledging that” some companies had a tough time, some people had problems finding work and meeting basic needs” in the face of “headwinds,” Xi made it clear that long-term economic stability continues to be the top priority.
According to Xi,” we may continue to act in accordance with the principles of establishing the new before abolishing the ancient, promoting stability through headway, and seeking development while maintaining balance.”
Investors may be encouraged by Xi’s intentional phrasing if he uses this five-year term, his third, to accelerate reforms to increase innovation and productivity.  ,
Xi, for instance, emphasized how scientific developments were boosting China’s “manufacturing skill” in lithium batteries, solar photovoltaic cells, and electric vehicles.
Notably, Xi vowed to “double efforts to advance science and technology, build talents, and boost education.” New levels are being scaled with tenacious resolve, and new works and improvements are emerging every day, as Xi put it.
The decline in island China is also echoing throughout Asia. As best markets almost everyday experienced sharp gains in 2023, Hong Kong stocks lost approximately US$ 523 billion in market value.  ,
In 2023, the MSCI World Index increased by 22 %. Hong Kong companies, on the other hand, dropped for the second year out of the previous six. As local require declined, the S&, P Global Taiwan Manufacturing PMI decreased from 48.3 in November to 47.1 in December.
Due to all of this, the central banks will be responsible for any efforts to address China’s slowing growth without escalating its disparities. Anyone can speculate as to how Pan threads these numerous needles or whether the PBOC also you.  ,
The BOJ of Ueda, which is under intense pressure to leave QE, may become compared in a similar way. Profit-hungry banks are sick of eking out meager profits in a culture with negative interest rates.
However, a recession in Japan’s local economy is quite possible to have ended 2023. In the months of July and September, growth decreased 2.9 % quarter over quarter. Since then, there has n’t been much evidence that the fourth quarter was any stronger.
According to scholar Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics, even though the third-quarter GDP decline “was only a blip,” we” also assume GDP growth to slow down quickly” this year.
This makes it extremely difficult for Ueda to transition away from its 24 years of zero interest rates, 22 years ‘ worth of QE, and an eight-year period of negative yield policies. It is obvious that high prices gives Team Ueda enough weapons to start “tapering.”
Core inflation is currently higher than 3 %, excluding fresh food and energy. We plainly see pretty resilient upward pressures in support prices, according to ING Bank economist Min Joo Kang.” It’s correct that cost-push inflation tends to be short-lived and could be transitory.
Japan Inc. may not be prepared for financial alcoholism, though. Banks, businesses, local governments, pension and healthcare resources, universities, assets, the postal savings method, and the growing number of seniors will all suffer significant losses if Japanese government yields increase to 2 % or even 3 %.
This “mutually assured death” active had previously prevented almost anyone from selling loan. Tokyo will have more trouble paying off the largest debt load in the developed world, which is currently at about 265 % of GDP, the higher provides go.
These contradictory factors raise concerns about the size of the currency’s most recent increases. According to researcher Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bandank,” The market’s place regarding the yen may n’t be clearer.” The most obvious industry in the forex markets right now is the long Japanese yen. It is almost to simple.
possibly incorrect. Before retiring in April to , Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda’s father, had a number of opportunities, pivot away from QE, or simply telephone that an leave might be in the cards. He did n’t.  ,
To be sure, Kuroda prepared for a change in December 2022 by allowing yields to increase by as much as 0.5 %. International markets became chaotic as a result, prompting Kuroda’s staff to rush to acquire debt and signal that BOJ policy had not changed.
That was an error. Kuroda had plenty of opportunity to signal QE was finished over the course of the following several months as he prepared to leave BOJ office.  ,
Markets were ready for a great statement, and the Tokyo creation was reluctantly preparing for one. Kuroda, who had spent the previous ten years elevating QE to new heights, also had enough political clout to start reversing his extreme asset hoarding.
Ueda has witnessed economic conditions deteriorate in the 269 weeks since taking the stick. The widely anticipated post-Covid boom  in China did n’t occur, the Fed kept tightening, and the Japanese GDP started to decline. Ueda’s ability to leave QE is constrained by all of this.
Ueda consistently confused bet for major BOJ action, with the exception of a few minor adjustments to allow 10-year yields to major 1 %. Local trends today make it extremely challenging for Ueda to tighten its financial straps.  ,
According to Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Joseph Capurso, wage growth is “remains poor and weakening.” ” We anticipate that the dollar-yen’s upward momentum will pick back up later this year.”
The BOJ’s decision-making process is influenced by what the Fed does in Washington. According to Marc Chandler, main market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex,” the question is when and how quickly Fed price reductions may be delivered.”  ,
The swing of market sentiment has significantly shifted from the “higher for longer” mantra of the majority of last year to pricing in extreme easing, according to him, as a result of moderated price pressures and weaker growth impulses.  ,
However, how Beijing and Tokyo control 2024 will continue to be the main topic of discussion in central banks circles. Additionally, neither the PBOC nor BOJ are currently aware of any surprises that may be in store for them in the coming 12 weeks.
William Pesek can be reached at @WilliamPesak on X, previously Twitter.
Thailand’s criminal-defamation laws are more likely to be repealed in 2024 as a result of misguided prosecutors and the significant national bank fraud scandal.  ,
Thailand intends to submit a UNHRC membership application. However, that move was be thwarted once more if serious crimes are found in the strange case involving a whistleblower who revealed an international banking scandal.
Additionally, read: Thailand is less secure for the courageous due to bad rules.
Early in February, an unusual fee established by the Office of the Prime Minister to look into the scam’s evidence-taking comes to an end. The whistleblower , Chutima Sidasathian test starts just a few weeks later.  ,
In the Non Thai area of the state of Nakhon Ratchasima, where three suicides and pain affecting dozens of gardening families are attributed to the bank scandal, the specific commission has been speaking with villagers and officials.  ,
The national government-funded program, run by the Village Fund to deliver low-cost funding for impoverished producers, into , personal accounts, was diverted with a total of 45 million baht ( US$ 1.3 million ).  ,
Even though the sum is modest, the Government Savings Bank ( GSB), one of Thailand’s biggest banks, is currently the focus of a lot of interest. In the information, it has been claimed that the lender concealed the theft of its own funds.
Even though the specific commission is not a court of law, anyone who is implicated in the case will be held accountable for the evidence, which takes the form of written legal declarations.  ,
Three officials from the Attorney General’s Department are in charge of the 18-person fee, which is also made up of six officers each from The Village Fund, The Bank, the Department of Justice, and the Special Investigation Department—the US Federal Bureau of Investigations ‘ equivalent in Thailand.  ,
The people received the “urgent” invitation to attend the commission  late in December, just a few weeks before the reading started. It originated from the main city officer, whose investigation revealed no evidence of wrongdoing after being prompted by the National Anti-Corruption Commission in a notice to the province’s governor.  ,
Chutima was publicly identified in the offer as the individual whose complaints led to the creation of the special commission.  ,
When Chutima and another blogger from the online media source Phuketwan were charged by the Royal Thai Navy with computer crimes and criminal defamation ten years ago, they became well-known. The reporters were ultimately found innocent by a Phuket judge.  ,
Chutima learned about the three sleeping pill overdoses and the pain of debts that the district’s farmers had been asked to pay back in 2020, despite the fact that in many cases they had never seen any income.  ,
In order to learn the truth about what had happened to the money , which was meant to help the farmers, she interviewed farmers individually and in groups over the course of several months using her analytical skills.  ,
The lender was well into a series of complaints by the time she used Facebook posts to show what had happened to the money,  , targeting 16 settlements one by one to repay the total loan amounts plus attention.
One village made an attempt to put the name of a local elected official to the legal case, which was then referred to as unlawful. Chutima was charged with contempt of court for two of her numerous Twitter content, but the prosecutor rejected the official’s request.
The local national next went to a police station where three distinct Facebook and nbsp comments were accepted by the officers. Public prosecutors and the nbsp have since filed three charges of unlawful libel. One farmer has also been charged by the native official, who has since brought Chutima under seven charges.  ,
He attended the special commission hearing, and his name was generally brought up, despite the local official’s claim that the fugitive defamation charges are “political” and “personal,” and have nothing to do with the community bank scandal.  ,
The GSB conducted its own domestic research and found that a sizable sum of money had vanished following Chutima’s andnbsp discoveries about what had happened.  ,
The lender simply stated through a local official that some funds had been “borrowed” but since returned and that any issues inside the bank’s branch were resolved, despite the fact that it would have been impossible for the money to get misdirected without the assistance of bank officials.  ,
The banks decided to write the arrangements because it had the choice of using law enforcement agencies to find the criminals or trying to negotiate directly with local leaders who might or might not know where the money went.  ,
The Village , Fund, whose name was misappropriated when would-be thieves established following town committees to compete with the legitimate ones, does not appear to be as certain about the bank’s solution and, instead, the lobbied for the creation of the particular commission of investigation.  ,
By hiding a robbery of the bank’s  , personal money, and / or other assets, officers did they violate Thai law? If thus, on whose permission? How far up the company’s chain of command understanding of the cover-up extended is the main concern raised by the evidence presented to the specific commission thus far.
The percentage is anticipated to finally respond.  ,
National and international interest is anticipated to once again be focused on Thailand and human rights as a result of the criminal  test and the whistleblower’s defamation, which began just weeks after the payment concluded.  ,
Chutima has been designated as a human rights defender by the National Human Rights Commission, and the case against her is being prosecuted under the SLAPP ( Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation ) category. In addition,  ,
Thailand’s most recent attempt to join the UN Human Rights Council and nbsp in 2014 was unsuccessful. One of the causes was probably the two reporters ‘ trial in Phuketwan at the time.
It is unquestionably moment for Thailand’s frequently abused criminal-defamation laws to be repealed in order to promote free speech, according to Chutima, who stated a decade ago that it is true. A next verdict of not guilty about ten years after the first verdict would merely confirm this.  ,
The various journalist accused of Chutima Sidasathian in 2013 was the artist, Alan Morison.
Forces inherited from 2022 shaped the US economy in 2023 — high but falling inflation, rising interest rates, neo-protectionist industrial policy, conflict with China, empty trade initiatives and the resurgence of former US president Donald Trump.
From an Asian perspective, the macro impact of US economic policy was benign and the micro impact was adverse, but security guarantees were welcome.
Political gridlock in Washington, with closely divided House and Senate numbers in Congress, is overshadowing economic events. Extreme positions advocated by right-wing Republicans and left-wing Democrats make agreement on significant legislation difficult.
Neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party is willing to advocate painful expenditure cuts or tax increases that would curtail high budget deficits, now running at 6–7% of GDP. The United States is traveling an unsustainable fiscal path.
Measured by the Consumer Price Index, annual inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, slowing to 3.2% in November 2023. Owing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, price inflation spurted during the first half of 2022.
That spurred wage inflation, fostered by an unemployment rate under 4% through 2023. In 2024, the Federal Reserve’s biggest decision is how long to keep monetary conditions tight to ensure that inflation returns to the preferred 2%.
Chairman Jerome Powell retired “transitory” from the Federal Reserve’s description of inflation in November 2021. He initiated a sustained rise in the federal funds rate, from 0 in January 2022 to 5.25–5.5% in July 2023.
Powell’s goal was to reach the 2% inflation target, even at the cost of more unemployment. Yet, there was no slowdown in the US economy during 2023.
Instead, Wall Street and Main Street relished the “soft landing” scenario. With inflation above 2%, the mantra for interest rates became “high for longer,” and yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds reached 5% in October 2023 before retreating. Sustained high interest rates aimed to quell inflation, but skeptics forecast a mild recession in 2024.
Early in 2023, several regional banks collapsed due to significant unrealized losses on their Treasury bond portfolios as interest rates rose. The Federal Reserve served as the lender of last resort, enabling troubled banks to borrow against the face value of Treasury bonds, containing the crisis.
Yet, many regional banks now grapple with distressed commercial real estate loans as the Covid-19 pandemic work-from-home trend continues to amplify office vacancies. This could trigger another regional bank crisis in 2024.
Elevated US interest rates appreciated the dollar against most currencies throughout 2023. Consequently, Asian countries paid more, in local currency terms, for US exports, but they also earned more from exports to the United States. Additionally, sustained US GDP growth attracted imports from Asia.
Some Asian central banks raised their interest rates, but Asian share markets did not particularly suffer. Between December 2022 and October 2023, Japanese equities appreciated 18%, South Korean 10% and Taiwan 16%, while Chinese, Singaporean and Australian shares ended the year roughly flat.
Towards the end of 2023, the expectation of falling US interest rates in 2024 slightly reduced the broad dollar exchange rate.
In his February 2023 State of the Union address, US President Joe Biden proclaimed Buy America as a core policy without addressing the cost of this policy for taxpayers or US allies. The new reality hit Asian partners in 2023 with the implementation of significant multi-year industrial policies.
The five-year US$1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Act of 2021 — funding highways, bridges, railways, high-speed internet and electric vehicle charging stations — mandated that every federal dollar procure US goods and services.
The $278 billion CHIPS and Sciences Act of 2022 subsidizes the semiconductor industry with $78 billion over five years. Funds are equally available to foreign firms, attracting Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to build large fabrication plants in the United States. Europe and Japan are now compelled to offer subsidies to stay in the semiconductor race.
The $394 billion misnamed Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 added neo-protectionism to climate-friendly initiatives. Battery and electric vehicle subsidies hinge on their production in the United States or a free trade agreement partner country. Responding to Japanese and South Korean complaints, special workarounds were designed to accommodate their export interests.
Slow-motion decoupling was 2023’s policy theme. US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan tried to distinguish between de-risking and decoupling, but that was wordplay to Chinese ears.
Advanced semiconductors — whether made by US or allied Asian firms — became forbidden exports and numerous Chinese companies were blackballed on the US Department of Commerce’s “entity list.”
The November 2023 Biden-Xi Summit focussed on setting guidelines to avoid military conflict but produced no commercial breakthroughs. Since Asian countries trade more with China than with the United States, they will try to sit on the fence.
Despite criminal indictments and civil trials, opinion polls put Trump in a strong position for the 2024 election. In addition to the disruptive geopolitical consequences of a second Trump presidential term, amplified “America First” policies – starting with a 10% across-the-board tariff – would echo the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariff of the 1930s.
Gary Clyde Hufbauer is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics.
This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.
Build track record as purpose driven, investor friendly social enterprise
Gearing up for next fundraising focusing on infra, community, human capital
Ending 2023 on a high note, youth-led social enterprise Accelerate Global Sdn Bhd, which in Nov 2021 raised US$102,400 (RM470,000) from 69 investors via equity crowdfunding with Ethis Malaysia, stayed true to…Continue Reading
SINGAPORE: The Singapore Police Force (SPF) once again warned members of the public on Friday (Dec 29) about the resurgence of phishing scams involving the impersonation of banks through spoofed SMSes.
At least 103 victims have fallen prey to the scams in December, with at least S$161,000 (US$122,000) lost, said the police.
Victims of this scam variant would receive SMSes from “+65” numbers claiming to be from their bank, warning them of possible unauthorised attempts to access their accounts.
They are then urged to click on the embedded URL links to verify their identity and stop the transactions.
The URLs would direct them to fake bank websites, misleading them into providing their internet banking credentials and one-time passwords (OTPs), which the scammers would use to make unauthorised withdrawals.
In some cases, victims would receive WhatsApp messages from scammers claiming to be bank officers. These criminals would impersonate bank security department officers and provide forged bank statements showing unauthorised transactions made in the victims’ e-wallets.
“Victims would only realise that they had been scammed when they discover unauthorised transactions in their bank accounts.”
Key economic areas inundated as two rivers overflow
PUBLISHED : 29 Dec 2023 at 11:14
PATTANI: The flooding situation in this southern province is still critical as the Pattani and Sai Buri rivers have overflowed their banks to inundate Pattani town, leaving key economic areas under water.
On Friday morning, the water level in the Muang Pattani municipality was rising quickly. Business premises on Phiphit, Udom Withi, Kalapho, Chabang Tiko and Yaring roads were inundated.
On Nong Chik Road leading to Pattani town, along which hotels and department stores are located, the water was more than 50 centimetres deep. Signs had been erected to tell motorists to avoid it and use other roads. Many cars and motorcycles had stalled in the water.
Red flags have also been put up at the Dechanuchit bridge. Sixty-six water pumps have been installed at various spots around the town to quickly drain the water out but more water keeps flowing in.
Local residents said water levels were the highest in about five decades in areas along the Sai Buri River in Pattani because floodwater was flowing from Narathiwat to the sea through Pattani.
An official announcement has been issued, warning people not to let their children play in the water as they could be swept away by the strong currents.
In Muang district, flooding has hit six tambons with 14 villages and 1,767 households, affecting 6,603 residents.
Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala have been the hardest-hit of five southern provinces that have seen some of the worst flooding in decades over the past week.
According to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, a total of 93,220 families were being affected by floods in 25 districts of the three southern border provinces.
In Narathiwat alone, flooding is known to have killed seven people and one person was reported missing.
Part of the problem is that the smartphone has become the gateway to everything in a user’s life, including their bank accounts.
Banks have been leaning into phone-based authenticators, which prompt the user for authorisation through SMS or an app notification before proceeding with online transactions. This is convenient, but merges authentication and application into one device. It is a problem if that one device falls under the control of an attacker.
Netizens have suggested that banks could bring back physical security tokens to overcome this problem. However, security tokens are an additional device that you must carry with you if you want to be able to authorise activities. You may need a unique device for each bank or organisation, so they may stack up and become confusing to manage.
In an ideal secure smartphone, banking apps would be able to completely isolate themselves from anything else that may run on the phone, including malware. However, if any holes are discovered in the technologies that provide this isolation, this could still be a problem. So perhaps a re-think about authentication factors is in order.
Beyond the smartphone screen, there are other areas of concern. Some may find a phone call to be a more personal – and perhaps safer – method of doing business. That’s not always true, with phone scams being prevalent in recent years.
In fact, receiving a verification phone call from a banking office is jarring in an age of scams. Singapore customers have complained that while banks can authenticate users through one-time passwords or security questions, customers have no way of verifying the legitimacy of a banking officer when one contacts them.
Banks could lean upon their other communication methods, such as notifications within their own apps, to allow the customer to verify the authenticity of requests, and even authorise the sharing of data. At a minimum, a customer should always be able to call back using a publicly verifiable contact number, such as one listed on an official website, before continuing a conversation.
More limits could also be placed on the information businesses can ask from a user for verification purposes. If we look to the regulations in Singapore, the protections of the NRIC are a good example of safer sharing of sensitive data with businesses. The Personal Data Protection Act restricts its collection and storage to cases determined to be necessary under the law, such as seeking medical treatment or getting a new phone line.
Partial recording of the NRIC is allowed in some circumstances, although collecting more than the last three digits and final character are cautioned be too revealing. Given how much of Singaporean life hinges on the NRIC, it’s understandable that it should be strongly safeguarded.
PUBLISHED : 29 Dec 2023 at 04:00
Nearly 100,000 families are struggling to recover from devastating floods in Pattani, Narathiwat, and Yala as the water begins to subside in some locations, according to the authorities.
The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) yesterday said the flood situation in the three southernmost provinces was easing, with work being done to fix damaged homes and properties.
However, 93,220 families, including those displaced by floods, in 25 districts in the provinces are struggling to find their feet.
Chaiyawat Junthirapong, DDPM’s director-general, said he is working with local authorities to offer assistance to residents in areas where the floodwater has receded.
The floods in Satun, Songkhla, Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat resulted from the northeast monsoon that covered the region and triggered persistent heavy downpours from Dec 22–28, he said.
Heavy floods ravaged wide areas in 34 districts in the five provinces at their peak in the past week, he said.
In Pattani, among the hardest hit by the heaviest flood in 50 years, many residents were caught off guard when flash floods struck their homes. They had to either wade through waist-deep water to reach evacuation boats or wait on the rooftops of their homes before being rescued.
As of yesterday, the floodwater in tambons Tabing, Lahan and Pase Yawo of Sai Buri district remained high at 3 metres in some areas.
Heavy floods were also reported in areas of Muang district, where water burst from waterway banks. The water, which flowed from nearby Yala province, was being directed into the sea in Muang district.
According to the authorities, a massive amount of water has damaged homes and disrupted roads.
In Narathiwat, 13 districts remain flooded as of yesterday. An eight-year-old child was reported missing in Rueso district. So far, seven people have died as a result of the floods, with four in Rueso district, one in Muang and two in Rangae.
Authorities have deployed flat-bottomed boats to aid residents stranded by the floods. As the flood has eased in some areas, residents have returned home, with property damage being assessed by officials.
Getty ImagesAt the age of 31, Justin Dowswell never imagined he’d be living in a shared room in his childhood home.
He had a full-time, well-paying job in Sydney, and had rented for a decade before an unprecedented housing crisis forced him to upend his life and move back in with his parents, two hours away.
“It’s humbling,” he says. But the alternative was homelessness: “So I’m one of the lucky ones”.
It’s a far cry from the promise of the Great Australian Dream.
Where the American Dream is a more abstract belief that anyone can achieve success if they work hard enough, the Australian version is tangible.
For generations, owning a house on a modest block of land has been idealised as both the ultimate marker of success and a gateway to a better life.
It’s an aspiration that has wormed its way into the country’s identity, helping to shape modern Australia.
From the so-called “Ten Pound Poms” in the 1950s to the current boom in skilled workers moving from India, waves of migrants have arrived on Australia’s shores in search of its promise. And many found it.
But for current generations the dreams proffered to their parents and grandparents are out of reach.
After decades of government policies that treat housing as an investment not a right, many say they would be lucky to even find a stable, affordable place to rent.
“The Australian Dream… it’s a big lie,” Mr Dowswell says.
Almost everything that could go wrong with housing in Australia has gone wrong, says Michael Fotheringham.
“The only thing that could make it worse is if banks started collapsing,” the head of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute tells the BBC.
Underpinning it all is that buying a house is astronomically expensive – the average property now costs about nine times an ordinary household’s income, triple what it was 25 years ago.
It’s particularly dire for the three quarters of Australians who live in major cities. Sydney, for example, is the second least affordable city on Earth to buy a property, trailing only Hong Kong, according to the 2023 Demographia International Housing Affordability survey.
Australia has made home ownership virtually unattainable for almost anyone without family wealth. Last month the boss of a major bank, ANZ, said home loans had become home loans had become “the preserve of the rich”.
That’s left people like Chelsea Hickman questioning their future. The 28-year-old fashion designer always imagined she’d become both a homeowner and a mother, but now worries that may be impossible.
“Financially, how could I ever afford both? The numbers just do not add up,” she says.
She tells the BBC from her Melbourne shared house that despite working full-time for almost a decade, she can’t even afford to rent an apartment by herself. Her friends are in a similar boat.
“Where did it go wrong?” she says.
“We did everything that everyone said we should do, and we’re still not reaching this point where we’re going to have financial independence and housing security.”
Tarek Bieganski, a 26-year-old IT manager, laughs when asked if he thinks he’ll ever own property.
“It’s just so obviously out of reach that it’s not really even a thought anymore,” he says. “And this is coming from someone that, really, has got it pretty good.”
But with interest rates rising faster than at any time in Australia’s history, even many of those who have scraped their way on to the property ladder now live in fear of falling off it.
Foodbanks are being overwhelmed by mortgage holders struggling to keep their heads above water. Hordes of people are picking up extra jobs. Many pensioners have been forced back into work.
It’s not doom and gloom for everyone though.
The level of home ownership across the nation – while significantly dropping for young people – has overall stayed around two-thirds.
And those Australians are quite content to see house prices climb and their wealth grow.
That’s difficult to stomach, Ms Hickman says, especially given how many households – one in three – now own a property other than the one they live in.
“I understand that people are like ‘Well, I worked hard to get these millions of houses’ and blah, blah, blah, and I’m like, ‘Okay, well, good for you. I work hard too and I just want one house’.”
As a result, millions of people are trapped in the rental market, seeking to create a watered-down version of the Australian Dream as tenants.
But that’s no paradise either.
Vacancies are at unprecedented, prolonged lows – to the point that councils across the country are begging people with empty holiday homes and short-term rentals to move them on to the long-term market.
And, with the greater demand, rents are skyrocketing.
Australian news has been awash with stories of massive rent increases and images of desperate people queuing to inspect properties riddled with defects and – in some cases – obviously covered in mould.
“It’s Grapes of Wrath stuff,” Dr Fotheringham says, referring to the famous Great Depression-era novel about a family struggling to build a life.
Social or subsidised housing – once a safety net for those on low or moderate incomes – is not an option for most Australians either. The number of homes available is less than half of what is needed to meet immediate demand and wait lists are years long.
And all of this is happening at a time when natural disasters and climate effects are wiping out swathes of housing stock, making even more parts of the vast Australian continent effectively unliveable.
The crisis is tipping people into homelessness or overcrowded living conditions. Demand for housing support is so high that some charities say they’ve been handing out tents.
One Tasmanian woman told the BBC she and her four kids spent over six months crammed into her mother’s spare room after the family was knocked back for more than 35 properties while languishing on the social housing wait list.
Melbourne woman Hayley Van Ree told us her rental prospects were so bleak that her mother raided her own retirement fund to buy an apartment and is now Ms Van Ree’s landlord – eliciting what she describes as a confusing mix of relief, embarrassment and guilt.
“Friends who have parents who are in property have this kind of morbid knowledge that when their parents die, they might be ok,” Ms Van Ree says. “I hate that it’s my reality.”
Mr Dowswell is now back in Sydney, having finally secured an apartment after six months, but says the ordeal has been a massive tax on his finances and mental health.
“It was just demoralising… the more you think about it, the angrier you get,” he says.
In 2023, the national conversation shifted from how expensive it is to buy a home, to how difficult it is to secure any kind of affordable home at all.
An end to pandemic-era rent and eviction freezes, record migration, rapidly escalating interest rates and construction delays conspired to leave housing in Australia in the worst state it has ever been, experts warn.
But the crisis is the result of “50 years of government policy failure, financialisation and greed”, wrote leading finance journalist Alan Kohler in a recent Quarterly Essay.
Particularly critical was what happened at the turn of the millennium, he argues. Until that point house prices in Australia had kept pace with income growth and the size of the economy – but this began to shift when the federal government introduced tax changes which incentivised the buying and selling of homes for profit.
A sharp spike in immigration and government grants pushed up house prices in that era too, but Mr Kohler says it was these tax breaks that forever changed the way Australia thinks about housing.
“It will be impossible to return the price of housing to something less destructive… without purging the idea that housing is a means to create wealth as opposed to simply a place to live,” he wrote.
Doing so will upset a large class of voters, which will take courage and innovation from policymakers, he adds.
And that’s something critics say successive governments at federal, state and local levels have struggled to muster.
Some point to decades of neglect for social housing, or the persistence with grants for first homebuyers, which are popular but don’t work as they should and actually drive up prices further.
Others argue planning and heritage laws have been too easily abused to limit developments, often by existing residents reluctant to see changes to their suburbs and investments.
Then there’s the fear of overhauling those lucrative tax incentives for property investors – with the most recent promise of reform rejected at an election in 2019 and now abandoned.
“Housing needs to be seen as an essential service and right before an investment,” Mr Dowswell says. “There is definitely a moral imperative to act… [but] selfishness will get in the way.”
National Housing Minister Julie Collins told the BBC there are “challenges” to tackle, but that her government – elected 18 months ago – is delivering “the most significant housing reforms in a generation”.
It has created or expanded schemes to help prospective buyers, though they have strict requirements and limited places. It has also promised to build thousands of new social and affordable houses – a small dent in the waiting list – and set up an investment fund to support future projects. Alongside state governments, it has pledged to create a National Housing and Homelessness Plan and beef up protections for renters.
The government is pulling other levers too: it announced earlier this month that it would halve Australia’s immigration intake and triple the fees for foreign homebuyers, both things they argue should help ease the strain.
Advocates support these changes but say they are just more tinkering around the edges of a system that needs heavy reform.
Those the BBC spoke to say that the Australian Dream has been demolished, eroding the foundations of the nation’s identity.
Australia has long thought itself the land of a fair go.
“[But] education and hard work are no longer the main determinants of how wealthy you are; now it comes down to where you live and what sort of house you inherit from your parents,” Mr Kohler says.
“It means Australia is less of an egalitarian meritocracy.”
Or as Ms Hickman sums it up: “It’s rigged.”
