Commentary: Malaysia’s difficult path to a low-carbon economy

On: April 19, 2024

In: Asia

Second, Malaysia should pursue the huge potential for green investment in electric vehicles ( EVs ), including motorcycles, and in hydrogen-based industries. Malaysia might become a leader in innovation, for instance, by utilizing battery-swapping systems in EVs to shorten recharge cycles and extend battery life. The opportunities for EV deployment, such as the road tax deduction and individual tax deduction relating to EV costs, are justified. An EV trend may be crucial to Kuala Lumpur’s 2030 goal of reducing coal power to 45 per share of the 2005 levels.

The biggest desire for green tech lies in a gas discovery. A clean power alternative to natural gas that produces enormous heat as a byproduct as well as water. However, its commercialism faces difficult challenges, particularly due to the high cost of producing hydrogen. The options are already growing, with gas being increasingly used in substances, cotton fabric production, cup, electronics, and metalworking.

Malaysia has great potential in this area as positive experiences emerge, for instance in Sarawak, where projects such as H2ornbill and H2biscus, in collaboration with Asian and North Korean lovers respectively, have made strides in hydrogen-based, export-oriented business.

Third, Malaysia needs to sea up administrative and financial assistance. In addition to money models, incentives, and grants for alternative technology adoption and R& development, there are other important areas of focus. D.

The state needs clearer standards and regulations in green markets, and more strict monitoring of efficient investments, to increase transparency and accountability. The state could also take into account the creation of a natural classification, which local banks have indicated would be helpful in setting criteria for approving natural loans. Lastly, enhancing the mobility and quality of data will be important for policy research, monitoring, evaluation, and future reforms.

With its big rely on fossil fuels, Malaysia faces a difficult but necessary road to decarbonisation. Yet, the country is well-positioned to plug into emerging industrial opportunities for low-carbon growth in industry and travel. Moving forward, Malaysia has confidently and quickly encourage green investments and work toward its carbon reduction objectives.

The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is hosting Vinod Thomas as a visiting top brother. This commentary second appeared on the Institute’s site, Fulcrum.

How deep is Vietnam’s financial rot? – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 19, 2024

In: Asia

The real estate magnate at the heart of a US$ 12 A 46 billion forgery case has been sentenced to death, a death sentence that appears to have appeased the Taiwanese community, but may not be enough to address growing concerns about the state of the fiscal system.

Truong My Lan, director of Van Thinh Tubby Holdings Group, was sentenced to death on April 11 by the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Court.

The trial piqued the Taiwanese public, not the least of which because the remarkable pilfered sums were frequently delivered in shoddy Styrofoam boxes, a common household item frequently used to produce pesticide-free “clean” vegetables in Asian homes.

Lan was found guilty of using her influence at the local Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) to scheming up a scheme that resulted in the embezzlement of more than 304 trillion dollars ($ 12 ). 46 billion ) from SCB between 2018 and 2022 – a amount larger than the valuation of most Asian banks.

Do Thi Nhan, the former head of the Inspection and Supervision Department II under the State Bank of Vietnam, was given a$ 5 million in cash in exchange for her confession, according to Lan. Apparently, the money was kept in three Foam boxes.

The case possibly just scratches the surface of Vietnam’s widespread widespread corruption, where corruption is deeply embedded in the Communist Party-dominated political and economic techniques.

( In another well-known case, Phan Van Anh Vu, the former chairman of Bac Nam 79 Construction JSC, reportedly used Styrofoam boxes to hand over a$ 4 million bribe to Nguyen Duy Linh, a former high-ranking official in the Ministry of Public Security. ) )

According to media reports, the State Bank of Vietnam was prompted to give SCB practically$ 24 billion in” special loans” as of early April because of the size of the alleged fraud in the Van Thinh Lil event, which has shocked Vietnam’s already fragile financial program.

The costs to SCB, estimated at 498,000 billion dong ($ 20. Despite having been detained for allegedly being crooked, Asia Commercial Bank (ACB) has experienced a similar panic that gripped lenders in 2012 after the arrest of magnate Nguyen Duc Kien for dishonest practices.

The enduring fragility of Vietnam’s monetary system is highlighted by memories of that chaotic incident, which can be stifled by false stories.

The State Bank of Vietnam’s past initiatives, including its 2015 invasion of three failing businesses, particularly CB Bank, Ocean Bank, and GP Bank ), were seen by some at the moment as designed to prevent large economic and financial collapse.

With deposit insurance that is only offered for a meager 125 million dong ( approximately$ 5,000 per person ), SCB’s failure may have a contagious impact on deposit holders who are concerned about the financial health of other Vietnamese banks.

Delicate house of accounts

However, the Van Thinh Lil event has exposed lingering systemic shortcomings in Vietnam’s financial market. Lack of transparency and poor regulatory oversight have made it easier for fraud to thrive.

In order to profit from the program, strong people with vested interests frequently break into the system and use it for their own gain. This not only affects public confidence in financial institutions, but it also discourages foreign investment, which in turn impedes economic development.

The federal discussion surrounding the Van Thinh Lil test suggests a growing public need for serious reform. The mere fact that for extensive problem can be exposed and tried in court offers a glimmer of hope.

The Styrofoam box, which was once a sign of Taiwanese resourcefulness, may also change as a means of bringing about greater accountability and transparency.

The path to reform, to be sure, may be exhausting. Undoubtedly, networks of effective individuals who profit from the corrupt status quo will resist change.

Additionally, social norms that emphasize specific contacts and a certain deference to authority had created a climate where speaking out against corruption poses a serious risk to whistleblowers.

Despite the difficulties, Vietnam has a unique opportunity to draw on the public outcry caused by the Van Thinh Lil case to drive for effective banking and governance reforms.

It will be important to strengthen regulatory frameworks, encourage greater transparency in financial institutions, and instill a tradition of whistleblowing. International cooperation in places like anti-money trafficking may also be a crucial component.

Vietnam’s fight against corruption is not finished. The Van Thinh Lil trial has exposed the problem’s scope, depth and severity. Whether it will be leveraged to create a more simply, resilient and guilty system, nevertheless, is yet to be seen.

China and ASEAN need to work together on Myanmar crisis: Observers

By: Jing Write

On: April 18, 2024

In: Asia

WHERE ASEAN HAS FAILED

Since the fight started more than three years ago, when Myanmar’s military junta seized power in a revolt, the local clustering has been having trouble playing the key mediator position.

ASEAN’s victory banks strongly on Myanmar’s application of the Five-Point Consensus, a peace plan agreed upon by all leaders of the union, which includes an instant cessation of murder, creative dialogue, and provision of charitable aid.

The discussion has so far been a failure, with the coup refusing to join the agreements.

Authorities said there are indications that Thailand might remain reconsidering its Myanmar plan and taking on a more active part with fresh Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.

We’ve clearly seen a more strategic approach and a willingness to play a more natural role as a mediator and peacemaker under the new leadership in Bangkok, said Dr. Wong.

Beijing, for its work, has been unable to keep Myanmar’s defense or military parties to the peace. In recent months, poradic fighting has continued and gotten worse, leading to air defense and live-fire training in China’s neighbor’s vicinity.

CHINA’S MEDIATION Work

China brokered the ceasefire agreement between the military and an ally of racial minority guerrilla groups in January, alarmed by the overflow of violence when five people were injured in Yunnan, in its southwest province, after an ordnance barrel crossed from Myanmar.

One of Myanmar’s strongest friends, Beijing has relationships with the key people in the fight, including the coup, cultural forces, the human National Unity Government, and Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy group. It is also close to Laos, the current ASEAN chair.

This puts Beijing in a prime position for peace efforts, said observers.

China is not just engaged in facilitation, but also a mediating function. China has more influence than any other stakeholders, and has leverage on all the stakeholders, ” said Mr Amara Thiha, a researcher from the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

He added that to safeguard its investments and interests in the nation, Myanmar needs to be stabilized.

“China’s mediation in Myanmar is not just about protecting its economic interests, it’s of strategic interest in the longer term … ( to prevent ) a power vacuum where external actors, Western actors could come in, ” he said.

Beijing has tried to avoid taking explicit sides in the conflict, according to Dr. Digby James Wren, senior advisor at the Royal Academy of Cambodia’s International Relations Institute, and has instead chosen to work with all parties as a mediator.

China is trying to find the shortest possible friction. It wants ( the situation ) to be as stable as possible. He said,” I do n’t believe the Chinese government is actively supporting any activities against the Myanmar government, but I do n’t believe they are providing as much support as they might have previously,” he said.

Trump plan to devalue dollar a gift to China – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 17, 2024

In: Asia

In a minute term, Donald Trump would generate money depreciation excellent once more.

Former US President’s aides are plotting a strategy to formally weaken the dollar to benefit producers, according to telegraphs from the former US President. As Politico accounts, for instance, Trumpworld is “actively debating ” an Argentina-like hinge at the urging of officials like Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s past international business consultant.

A trip like this might benefit China more in the long run by placing” America second.”

Buenos Aires would be in charge of the Group of Seven business if depreciation were a prosperity strategy. Turkey and Zimbabwe may become rising. As Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia may be giving China a move for its money.

The US trying to use this strategy may put more pressure on inflation and put the dollar at risk of losing its status as a reserve currency. The Federal Reserve’s monetary science might change as Trump’s plans for 60 % tax on all Chinese goods and 100 % levies on some auto goods coincide with this move.

At the moment, of course, it ’s the dollar’s relentless strength that ’s turning heads. Eastern currencies are neither at, or falling underneath, key trading levels.

The Chinese renminbi, South Korean won, American dollar, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit all experience downward force. Authorities in the West are monitoring changes in the value of the Jewish shekel, the Polish zloty, the North American rand, and other financial units.

If Trump retakes the office and devalues the buck, things will get worse. For a self-inflicted error would give Xi Jinping one of his most important goals in ways that the Chinese president could never have imagined.

Team Xi has consistently made significant and regular progress toward replacing the dollars as the economic system’s statement since 2016.

That year, Beijing secured a spot in the International Monetary Fund ’s “special drawing-rights ” program, putting the yuan into the globe’s most exclusive currency club along with the dollar, euro, yen and pound.

According to economic messaging service SWIFT, the yuan surpassed the renminbi as the money with the fourth-largest discuss in global payments in 2023. It furthermore overtook the buck as China ’s most used cross-border financial system, a second.

China ’s renminbi is gaining international momentum. Photo: Twitter Screengrab

Trump’s executive of a weaker money would significantly improve the method. That had significantly lower Americans ‘ confidence in US Treasury securities, which are a fundamental having for central bankers around the world, while raising borrowing costs for the country.

Washington’s present ability to defy economic gravity would also be hampered by purposeful dollar devaluation. Thanks to the dollar’s supply money status, the US enjoys any number of unique benefits.

This “exorbitant privilege, ” as 1960s French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called it, allows Washington to live far beyond its means.

All this explains why the dollar continues to rise even as Washington ’s national debt approaches US$ 35 trillion. The money is up 9 points. Compared to the yen, the yen has fallen to 6 %, and the euro is only at 4 %.

Certainly that President Joe Biden’s White House has n’t imperiled faith in the money. Along with ongoing debt accumulation, Team Biden’s determination to thaw portions of Russia’s forex reserves over its Ukraine war crossed a line with some international investors.

According to scholar Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Asset Management, “exceptional activities ” — including restrictions imposed by the US and its supporters against Moscow — could lead to fewer countries being willing to hold foreign currency.

Billionaire Ray Dalio, chairman of Bridgewater Associates, agrees that the price of such techniques is that “there’s less of an opportunity to buy” US Treasury assets.

The International Monetary Fund threw an unusually harsh slam at American policymakers on Tuesday ( April 16 ) over continued fiscal misadventures.

The United States ‘ excellent recent performance is undoubtedly outstanding and a significant contributor to global growth, according to the IMF. “ But it reflects robust demand elements as well, including a governmental stance that is out of range with long-term fiscal sustainability. ”

The IMF hit Washington ’s reckless impulses, warning they risk exacerbating prices and putting at risk the longer-term macroeconomic stability of the world’s biggest business. “Something will have to offer, ” the IMF concluded.

On top of Covid-19 signal, the Trump era has rolled out huge investments in clean energy, system and various policy priorities. As debts held by the government is on track to reach$ 45, interest costs are rising. 7 trillion, or 114 % of gross domestic product ( GDP ) by 2033. That compares with 97 % at the end of 2023.

These dynamics explain why “debt debasement ” trades have been “closing in on all-time highs, ” observes Michael Hartnett, investment strategist at Bank of America.

In January, “Black Swan” writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb warned of “a loan loop. In the context of growth-debt relationships, previous US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin stated to Bloomberg that the American market is “in a horrible spot.”

However, that was when the market had anticipated a year-long simplicity of up to seven. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s team is now on hold due to inflation changes. In March, the consumer price index rose at a worse-than-forecast 3. 5 % annual charge.

At a time when OPEC is determined to continue cutting output, Iran’s assault on Israel and the possibility of retribution are now on the rise.

Middle Eastern conflicts could cause commodities prices to rise even further.

“Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine … the world has now moved into an inflationary boom, ” says Louis Gave, economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. Holding US bucks and US bonds may be expensive for traders in common and risky for investors from unfair nations during this inflationary growth. ”

Gave continues,” sure enough, the gold price has increased by a third since the war of Ukraine, and long-dated US bonds have decreased by a next.” This is intriguing because the two property lessons essentially marched in unison with one another for years prior to the invasion of Ukraine. However, in a way that US Treasuries have failed to perform, golden has acted as a collection diversifier in the past two years in a way that power has done. Will the events of the weekend [Iran’s bombing of Israel ] change any of this? ”

Enter Trump’s devaluation gambit. No doubt such an idea would get extreme pushback from US institutions, including the Treasury, Fed and the Department of State.

The first Trump administration argued that boosting American exports would require engineering a weaker dollar. In July 2019, Larry Kudlow, then-director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC that “just in the past week, we had a meeting with the president and the economic principles and we have ruled out any currency intervention. Money is being drawn from all over the world because of the steady, trustworthy dollar. ”

That same month, Trump lashed out at China and Europe for, in his view, playing a “big currency manipulation game ” and “pumping money into their system ” to undermine American workers.

Trump argued at the time that Washington should use the same strategy, or it should continue to be the “dummies” who sit back and watch as other nations play their games. ”

Given the concern that Trump might get his way, the dollar dropped at the time. It was plausible, considering Lighthizer had Trump’s ear, along with advisor Peter Navarro, an economist advocating protectionist policies.

All of this led to then-US finance minister Steven Mnuchin declaring:“ I am not going to advocate a weak dollar policy in my immediate capacity as the Treasury Secretary. ”

An argument can be made today that a dollar that is constantly overvalued has costs.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens ’ College, Cambridge, tells Bloomberg that “authorities are a little bit frozen around the world as to how do you react to a generalized dollar strengthening? How do you respond to a US interest rate increase that is generalized? ”

El-Erian adds that “unfortunately in the past, when those two things go too far, they break something elsewhere. ”

Trump might be able to bypass the dollar’s fuel tank by effectively dumping sugar in it. Any increase in borrowing costs would significantly increase Washington’s burden on creditors and result in less money for essential services. And investments aimed at increasing innovation and productivity.

If Trump has his way, the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency may be over. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

As China, Japan, and developing Asia battle it out to cap exchange rates, it would also lead to the biggest currency war in history. First, Tokyo, Beijing and other top foreign holders of US debt would reduce their exposure. The race to front-run dollar sales would see Asian central banks potentially dumping$ 3 trillion-plus worth of US Treasuries.

A dollar devaluation would warp incentives for the US economy as it a whole, aside from the initial financial chaos and lost respect. Again, if a weak currency were a magical policy, Japan’s GDP would n’t be nearly$ 1 trillion smaller than it was a dozen years ago.

In Japan’s case, 25 years of prioritizing a weak yen over retooling growth engines undermined competitiveness. The 12 federal governments that had been in charge of the country since 1998 had little urgency to ease bureaucracy, stifle labor markets, start a startup boom, boost productivity, and empower women. And it took the onus off corporate CEOs to restructure, innovate and take risks.

A Trump 2 A 0 presidency could set the US on a similar path to mediocrity. It might live up to his dream by bringing the US back to 1985, a time when top-down tariffs could have a significant impact on the economy. The same was true of sharp exchange-rate shifts.

Take the events of 1985 at New York’s Plaza Hotel, which Trump once famously owned. The US bulldozed then-rival Japan and Europe in the so-called” Plaza Accord” to weaken the dollar, boost the yen, and give Washington something close to the zero-sum benefits Trump claims should be taking.

In the 40 years since, China replaced Japan as the target of Trump’s ire. When Trump complained during his 2017-2021 presidency that China was “raping ” US workers, it echoed his anti-Japan tirades of the 1980s. Additionally, there is no longer the economic system Trump wants to use for time travel.

Top economic powers could control the world’s currency markets in 1985 and decisively alter trajectories. Today, China has ample ways to navigate around Washington ’s policies, meaning if Trump wins in November and seeks to devalue the dollar it would be a policy mishap of epic proportions.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

The Myanmar refugees taking shelter in Thailand’s Mae Sot

By: Marcus Ching

On: April 17, 2024

In: Asia

Burmese crossing the border bridge to Mae Sot, Thailand

By Jonathan Head

in Mae Sot, Thailand

The wood and leaf-thatch sanctuary in the middle of a sugar field almost appears to be a safehouse.

But that is where Sanjay, 23, his choice of surname, and eight others have been hiding out since fleeing recruitment across the border in war-torn Myanmar.

They are now captives in Mae Sot, on Thailand’s northern border. A bunch of ducks, chickens, and many goats live in their primitive home.

Back apartment, I used to worry every day that they would recruit me for the military, Sanjay recalls. No one will come to harm me, yet though we have very little food below- simply rice and vegetables. I feel completely these in Thailand. “

A small, wet valley, no more than a torrent in the dry season, is all that separates Myanmar from Thailand.

Tens of thousands have eluded the area since the military coup of 2021, searching for health in Mae Sot, a frontier town in Thailand. Young people who have escaped the national conscription that has been implemented by Myanmar’s military leaders since February are the most recent arrivals. It applies to all men between the ages of 18 and 35. The legislation has caused a generation of young men to flee because the majority of the younger generation is fervently opposed to military rule.

Mae Sot has over the centuries become a troubled shelter for Burmese refugees fleeing. It resembles Casablanca in the well-known namesake film or Cold War Berlin in the exterior. It is a city full of emigrants, planning trend, waiting for asylum offers, generally wary of spies and informers, and living in a position of almost constant stress.

” I used to get a poor boy,” Sanjay says. ” I did whatever I liked. I always listened to my family. I was never interested in politics. “

His life, and thoughts, changed after the revolt when his daddy was jailed by the military, for helping the weight. But he did n’t consider leaving his house until his call-up papers arrived.

I had no intention of defending them against another Burmese citizens. “

Nine fugitives from conscription are living under this leaf-thatch shelter, together with assorted livestock

The Burmese army has really suffered yet another humiliating defeat in Myawaddy, on the other side of Mae Sot’s valley.

When a coalition of rebels overran their foundations, lots of its soldiers were forced to give up. To the east of Myawaddy, reinforcements sent to try to recapture the city have been ambushed and buried in wooded hills.

The army is sorely lacking in volunteers due to a series of similar military defeats in recent months, including those in Rakhine State and Shan and Kachin States to the northeast. Thousands of soldiers have been killed, wounded, captured or have deserted.

Sanjay opposed being one of them. Therefore, his family assisted him in escaping and took him on the lengthy and risky bus journey to the border.

He was able to enter Thailand with his Myanmar ID cards, which included a two-week visa.

He has an uncle who is already supporting him in Mae Sot, but that has now passed.

But, when he travels into Mae Sot, he is forced to lay low in the fields, which puts him at risk of incarceration and deportation. But he has no worries.

A young Burmese with tattoo of Aung San Suu Kyi

Mae Sot is today a warren of safehouses, full streets accommodating mostly illegal immigrants. Some are well-established hostels, funded by international aid agencies. Some are improvised; In the main market, there are clear shophouses that are insulated with wood and plastic tarpaulins to create just the right amount of room for a family to sleep in.

In one of the better safehouses, is a family of five that had just arrived a week ago, carrying some clothing, a couple blankets, and nothing else, except their five year-old father’s favorite toy car.

When his military call-up documents arrived, the home made the decision to leave their house close to Yangon. The community is now 19 years old.

His parents said,” I could never take for my child to have to fight against other young gentlemen.”

They described a 15-day long, gruesome journey from Yangon through the Karen State rocks and then crossing the river at evening into Thailand. All of their benefits were consumed by the money and fees they were required to pay.

That night, the parents, a former railroad employer, had just been out trying to get a career. Mae Sot’s wages are frequently harrowingly lower, but he was able to find something.

A Burmese woman selling cigarette and alcohol at a Thai Myanmar border market

For those who have fled Myanmar, the city serves as both a prison and a place of rest.

Thailand does not provide established shelter to those fleeing the conflict in Myanmar because it does not sign the UN Convention and Protocol on Refugees. Most of the defendants have few or no paperwork.

The Thai government mainly accepts the influx because Mae Sot is now almost totally Burmese and people have been crossing the border for decades. However, they are not permitted to travel outside it without paperwork. Wealth is a continuous problem; Although the police charge 300 baht ( £7,$ 9 ) per month for a card that is meant to stop people from being detained at checkpoints, many Burmese are still detained and forced to pay much higher fees for their release.

There are a lot of mental health issues, according to Nay Chi Win, the co-founder of Joy House, an impressive group center established last year to assist migrants in managing their stress and depression.

” We hear about a lot of death situations, or folks talking about death. They feel unnecessary. Again in Myanmar they might be an expert or a physician, but here they are asynchronous. They may continue their education. They don’t support their families. Often they stop caring about their existence, using drugs or alcohol. “

Sanjay has chosen to fight back across the border by following the example of many other young people. At least, he said, he did feel important. However, not all will tolerate the cruelties of battle. Four months of intensive training by the seasoned combatants of the Karen National Union are required to be accepted into one of the voluntary Women’s Defense Force units. Many do not produce the quality.

Thai army stand guard by 2nd friendship bridge following the fall of a strategic border town Myawaddy to rebels

The helicopter squads are made up of a number of young men with technical backgrounds who are assisting in the construction, adaptation, and piloting of the drones, which are extremely important in the battle, dropping tiny explosives with pinpoint accuracy to destroy the morale of the soldiers.

” I miss my foot,” said the 27-year-old past PDF warrior, speaking in a Mae Sot back streets.

He was a former IT engineer who joined the opposition after the revolution but accidentally hit a landmine.

It was the right course of action, they said. “

His suggestion to review braves who want to play in the conflict is to consider their skills:” Being on a hit squad and fighting is not the most crucial factor. We need complex folks for our helicopter squads, and we need people to move abroad and do fund-raising. “

Thailand, Thailand, has acknowledged that the military regime in Myanmar may be crumbling and that it must prepare itself to deal with tens of thousands more coming over the boundary. It has for years claimed it can handle any overflow from the issue over the frontier as a localized matter between the militaries of the two countries.

Mae Sot has a more visible Thai military presence as a result of the fighting in Myawaddy.

They can be seen performing sentry duty along the river, gazing over the casinos and connoisseurs that have recently ravaged this region of Myanmar, the now insurgent-controlled border posts, and a few defeated Burmese soldiers who stayed for a few days on the opposite bank.

However, those who have just arrived in Mae Sot are still jubilating over the reminders of Myanmar’s conflict.

The father-of-three worries about education for his boys. Most of the Burmese language schools in Mae Sot charge fees, and undocumented Burmese cannot attend Thai schools. He and his wife want their son, who is now a doctor, to be able to study online.

But, he says, they are glad they left Myanmar.

” I have slept better than I have ever had since the coup,” I said last week. “

Yen hits 34-year low, defying end of negative rates – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 17, 2024

In: Asia

On March 19, the Bank of Japan ( BoJ) announced a new interest rate increase, ending a period of negative interest rates, for the first time in 17 years. The essential rate was increased from 0 to 1. 1 % to a group ranging from zero to zero 1 % – a meager attempt to rein in some tightening after years of loose but fruitless monetary policy.

Despite the revision, Japan continues to be the world’s largest economy with the lowest interest rates. In my opinion, the walk is certainly designed to stop Japan’s economic policy problem; rather, it confirms the northern bank’s role in supporting the US dollar.

Bad charges were purportedly introduced to stimulate the economy, based on the idea that lower interest rates would result in higher development. However, the negative rates previously provided an economic stimulus.

They imposed a duty on the deposits held by the central bank’s commercial banks. Banks were required to pay the central bank as soon as rates were imposed, squeezing their profit margins ( in 2016 Japan ).

Lenders in Japan have passed this sentence on borrowers because they have never extended bad rates to deposits made by customers. Since smaller Chinese businesses have been looking for more bank loans for 30 years, this was relatively simple to complete. In consequence, lowering costs into negative territory resulted in higher borrowing rates for mortgage customers.

Due to the decline in bank revenue and the years of zero and negative charges ( the BoJ had previously reduced interest rates to zero ) 001 % in the 1990s ) have also forced thousands of small banks in Japan ( likewise in Europe ) to merge with bigger banks.

Central managers adore the concept of a few large banks and a focused banking system. However, the middle school and little businesses are the target markets. According to research, larger banks lend less to small businesses, and economies are most lively when there are many smaller banks present.

The gas for economic growth is provided by banks borrowing. Thus, the Bank of Japan’s low and negative interest rate guidelines have harmed the country’s economy by preventing banks credit development for years.

The japanese continues to be poor.

Is the modest increase in interest rates a step in the right direction? Little. The business is also suffering from zero interest rates. Ratios ought to have been raised substantially sooner and more frequently. However, the BoJ is never interested in supporting regional economic growth or even obvious government policy. Take into account the transfer charge.

Since investors may receive higher interest by investing in other assets, it is frequently believed that the low prices have contributed to a poor yen. However, the yen’s price has decreased since the price increase was announced. Before interest rates were raised, the renminbi stood at 149 to the US dollar. One year later, it had slipped to 151 to the money. And on April 15, the yen fell past 154 per money – its weakest in 34 times.

Given the skill of Chinese manufacturing, analysts have predicted that the renminbi would rebound. They are also knowledgeable of the aggressive rhetoric of the Japanese Ministry of Finance, which is officially in charge of implementing official currency measures and uses this to halt yen failure.

The BoJ is impartial and has a long history of abusing the Ministry of Finance’s ideas. The BoJ typically sterilizes any action ordered by the Finance Ministry to achieve the same objective. It has, for example, aimed to improve the crisis in order to push through fundamental change.

The cleaning is the reason why the yen has declined further since the most recent plan announcement, but so far nothing has changed.

The BoJ has been boosting record development more quickly than the US Federal Reserve. The yen’s worth in relation to the US dollar will decline as a result of more advanced funds printing in Japan. These variables are more significant than curiosity rates, which typically just follow the market.

Propping up the dollar

The Fed’s extraordinary monetary policy of March 2020, which put in place the Blackrock program, had put a risk on the US dollars. This strategy was put forth by American property management company Blackrock in 2019 to trigger prices through a form of quantitative easing.

This strategy was actually based on a 30 year old proposal of “quantitative easing ” that I developed in Japan to aid in the nation’s swift recovery from its initial banking crisis. It was a scheme intended for negative economies with shrinking bank funds, specifically for the central institution to buy assets from the non-bank industry.

When the Fed added more fuel to the fire and doubled bank credit growth to 11 % in the US, bank credit growth in 2020 was already more than 5 %. In order to avoid disappointment, I had been anticipating in 2020 that we would experience substantial inflation 18 months after, which is what happened in the nations that came after the Fed started printing money.

Since then, the BoJ has been given the task of raising the US dollars. The US has enlisted its allies to help the money in a time when the BRICS countries ( Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa ) are contesting the dominance of the money and also Saudi Arabia is selling fuel against the Chinese money.

The BoJ is continuing to increase credit development more quickly than the Fed, and the yen may remain weak as a result, no matter what the Ministry of Finance says or does. As Henry Kissinger said in 1972 with reference to South Vietnam: “It is terrible to become America’s army. It’s dangerous to be its supporter. ”

The University of Winchester’s Richard Werner is a teacher of finance and economy.

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

Digital wallet “super app” to link with bank apps

By: Barkar Nash

On: April 16, 2024

In: South-East Asia

PUBLISHED: 17 Apr 2024 at 06 :40

According to Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat, the so-called” super software” intended for the 10,000-baht digital wallet plan may work in tune with existing wireless applications for businesses on customers ‘ phones.

The app, he explained, was developed in collaboration with the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society ( DES ) and the Digital Government Development Agency ( DGA ) for use in any digital-based policies. It will use an open-loop option, which allows budget users to make purchases at various stores for the sake of wider availability with easy-to-use guidelines.

According to Mr. Julapun, anyone who wants to get the budget handout is not required to open a bank account with a state-owned financial institution in order to receive the money. The” Tang Rat” game, created by the Interior Ministry and the DGA, is already in use by those who have a disability or pension to check on the payments made, according to Mr. Junlapun. On April 10, the most recent information of the 500-billion-baht electric pocket flyer policy were revealed. It is scheduled to be released in the third quarter.

Mr Julapun said earlier that the program’s income may remain obtained from three options: 152. 7 billion ringgit from the funds for the 2025 governmental year; 175 billion ringgit from the budget’s redistribution for the upcoming fiscal year; and 172. 3 billion baht in the form of a loan from the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives ( BAAC ).

A product of this size, according to Saknarong Siriporn Na Ratchasima, a former BAAC expert and deputy secretary of the Thai Sang Thai Party, may cause the bank to lose both its inner resources and its ability to generate revenue.

He claimed that the BAAC may need to find a way to pay the financial burden of that continuous debt, including the 230 billion ringgit in losses caused by a rice-pledging program under the previous Yingluck Shinawatra administration.

Last year, the BAAC’s cash remained satisfactory, with enough money in its coffers to support its procedures. The bank claimed that its liquidity risk management complied with the requirements set by the Bank of Thailand ( BoT) ).

With a cash cover ratio of 15, the bank had 287 billion baht of solid assets backing cash. 7 %, which is higher than the required 8 percentage. 50 % stated by the BoT.

If the BAAC were to issue this sizable digital wallet mortgage while the old debts from the rice-pledging structure remained unresolved, its problems may burst and eventually stifle the company’s ability to assist producers, which is what the BAAC is supposed to do, according to Mr. Saknarong.

Food aid schemes to cover entire city

By: Barkar Nash

On: April 16, 2024

In: South-East Asia

Discussed: 16 Apr 2024 at 07 :01

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration ( BMA ) intends to expand the scope of its projects involving food security to include more of the capital’s borders.

By the end of the year, Sanyakorn Ounmeesri, the chairman of BMA’s Social Development Office, says it plans to expand the programs to include all 50 towns.

The Food Surplus and BKK Food Bank initiatives were intended to improve the distribution of resources in an equal manner, according to Mr. Sanyakorn, who said the assignments were called.

The programs, which began last month, were immediately rolled out in 10 regions, particularly Prawet, Lat Krabang, Klong Toey, Phra Khanong, Bang Khae, Bang Khunthian, Phasicharoen, Bangkok Noi, Khlong San and Bang Phlat, he said.

The Food Surplus scheme, which is handled by Scholars of Sustenance Foundation ( SOS ) and VV Share Foundation, collects untouched leftover food donated by project partners to be redistributed to vulnerable groups on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, he added.

Over the past seven decades, up until last week, 44. 80 tonnes of food have been redistributed.

” The number redistributed to time is equivalent to a little over 188,181 regular foods,” he said.

Additionally, the project has reduced the state’s emissions of 113,356 carbon monoxide. 85 kilogrammes of carbon dioxide equivalent ( CO2e ), Mr Sanyakorn said.

To date, the system has provided meals to 9,158 senior people, 2,338 poor individuals, 3,135 bad children, 1,461 orphans, 1,113 disabled people, 742 bed-ridden patients and 184 poor people, he said.

The BKK Food Bank project, however, was immediately rolled out in Huai Khwang, Phra Khanong, Bang Phlat and Bang Khunthian regions at the start of the time.

In accordance with the program, food businesses are established in the towns where people in need can stock up on basic needs provided by contributors.

The BMA plans to expand both programs to protect all 50 towns of Bangkok, perhaps by the end of this year, said Mr Sanyakorn.

The world’s coral reefs are bleaching. What does that mean?

By: Jing Write

On: April 15, 2024

In: Asia

WHAT ARE Reefs? In provinces, reefs are insects. Their calcium phosphate secretions create a tough, safe scaffolding that supports numerous multicolored single-celled algae species. The two living things have evolved over the years to work along. Corals provide shelter to plants, while the algae remove coastal waste and provide energyContinue Reading

Americans should worry more about world war – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: April 15, 2024

In: Asia

It is repulsive job to be the man who constantly complains about a near-disaster. If anyone listens to you, and the disaster happens, you’re a useless Cassandra.

If anyone listens to you and the devastation luckily does n’t occur, you’re viewed as a stupid. if people; would Many people will still believe your warning was incorrect and the precautions were needless if they listen to you and taking action to effectively prevent the disaster.

The only way you’ll always come out looking clever is if the disaster does occur, and people follow your caution in time to alleviate its impact. You are at that place; Gandalf. However, being Gandalf means that a disaster is actually occurring, so you should n’t expect it. hope for.

Despite this, I think it ’s our duty to warn the world of impending disaster if we think we see one coming.

I have been concerned about a big war between the US and China since the later 2010s, when conflicts increased in the South China Sea. I wrote a piece for Bloomberg ; in 2018 saying that the risk of battle was being ignored. I felt as though I was yelling into the vacuum.

Since the crisis, and particularly since the war in Ukraine and Gaza erupted, those concerns have gone conventional. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase and perhaps the most important businessman in the nation, is just one instance. believes that the earth is entering a political crisis unlike anything since World War 2:

The nation’s most prominent banker, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, told shareholders Monday that he continues to believe the US market to be adaptable and develop this time. However, he is concerned about political happenings, including the conflict in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas warfare, as well as US social fragmentation, may be creating an atmosphere that “may very well be creating dangers that could eclipse anything since World War II. ”

The remarks came in an monthly investor letter from Dimon…

“America’s global leadership role is being challenged outside by other nations and inside by our polarized electorate, ” Dimon said. We must find ways to put our differences aside and work together in the name of democracy with other European countries. During this time of tremendous crises, uniting to protect our important rights, including free business, is paramount. ”

He is, of course, entirely correct.

The major one is implicit: World War 3, but Dimon’s letter mentions the war in Ukraine and Gaza.

If China and the US go to combat, it’ll make what’s happening today in East Europe and the Middle East seem like child’s play – not just because the troops involved may be larger, but because the existing war in East Europe and the Middle East would probably grow into local wars as well.

You can bet that Dimon is thinking about World War 3, as are many others, even though he does n’t talk about it. As I see it, the simple truth that not many people are talking about the threat represents information that we’re also not taking it seriously.

And because Americans do n’t discuss it, there is n’t the urgency to act; would something about it. One of our excellent abilities as a society has always been that we start shouting about issues before they become serious, giving us time to prepare. We are n’t preparing because we are n’t shouting right now.

So although I’m only an unimportant little finance blogger, I did do my best to cry about the likelihood of an oncoming crisis.

Let’s start with a frightful historic analogy.

When did World War 2 begin?

Americans typically think about World War 2 for about four times; we from soon 1941 through 1945, which they participated in.

Those decades were indeed the most dramatic and dangerous of the war, by much, but the battle actually began earlier. Although the standard launch deadline is September 1, 1939, it is simple to refute the claim that the war started much earlier.

Some scholars view WW1 and WW2 as one continuous conflict, but I don’t think that actually makes sense — there was certainly a pause in world war deaths in the 1920s. Additionally, there was no real South Asian drama in World War One. But let’s set that view away.

However, there were a number of issues that lasted until World War 2, and finally merged with that conflict as a result of tributaries evaporating into a wonderful river. Let’s do a quick timetable of these.

in; 1931-32, Japan seized Manchuria from China, which increasingly sparked a larger conflict between the two countries. The Chinese war and job likewise set Japan on a path toward militarism, bringing to power the regime that would eventually sue WW2 itself.

in; 1935-36, fascist Italy invaded and taken Ethiopia. The League of Nations halfheartedly failed in an attempt to stop the war, which caused the League to be discredited and the post-WW1 order to suffer greatly. That emboldened the fascist powers. The Ethiopian opposition to Italian rule would eventually turn out to be a minor theater of World War Two.

from; Japan and the Soviet Union from 1935 to 1939; fought an undeclared border war, ultimately culminating in major battles in 1939, which the USSR won. That resulted in Japan attempting to form a coalition with Nazi Germany, which ultimately resulted in the Soviets joining the Japanese occupation at the end of World War Two.

( The realization that Japan could n’t defeat the Soviets and conquer Siberian oil fields also prompted Japan to try to take Southeast Asian oil instead, when it needed oil to prosecute its war against China; This led to the Pacific War and Pearl Harbor. )

from; 1936 through 1939, Nazi Germany, fascist Italy, and the Soviet Union fought each other in a proxy war : the Spanish Civil War. Units from all three powers officially or unofficially engaged in the fighting. When the Nationalists won, it further enshrined the fascist rulers.

in; In what is known as , Japan invaded the rest of China in 1937. the Second Sino-Japanese War. This became a significant theater of World War Two, resulting in almost as many fatalities as the Nazi invasion of the USSR.

It also prompted Japan to go to war with Britain and the US, in order to seize the oil fields of Indonesia to support the invasion of China. ( It seems to me that the fact that we do n’t think this was the start of World War II sounds like pure eurocentrism. )

in; 1939, before the Soviet Union joined World War 2, it invaded Finland in what’s known as the Winter War, securing some of the territory at great cost. This war would continue all the way through WW2 itself.

There were also no fewer than six wars in the 1930s, which ultimately led to World War 2 itself! But even after the war officially began with Hitler’s invasion of Poland in The alliances regrouped in their final configuration in September 1939, and fighting was at its height.

Hitler’s invasion of Poland was actually a Soviet Union-total invasion Even as the Nazis attacked from the west, the Soviets attacked from the east and seized part of Poland, having agreed with the Nazis beforehand to divide the country up.

The Nazis and the Soviets looked more like partners than adversaries at that time until Hitler betrayed Stalin and attacked in 1941, despite only having waged a proxy war against one another in Spain.

Britain and France declared war on Germany after it invaded Poland, but for eight months, nothing really happened; This was known as the Phoney War. That pause came to an end when Hitler invaded and conquered France and began bombing Britain in 1940.

At that point, WW2 was in full swing, but the violence was still fairly localized and fairly limited — only about two hundred thousand people died in those campaigns, which sounds like a lot but was only about 0. 3 % of the total deaths from the war.

It was n’t until ;1941 that WW2 became what we Americans remember it as. The Nazis attacked the Soviet Union and Japan attacked the US at the same time, bringing the world’s two most powerful nations into the fray, causing many casualties, sealing the Axis ‘ fate, and forming the grand alliance that would form the foundation of the postwar world order.

So if you were living at any point in 1931 through 1940, you would already be witnessing conflicts that would eventually turn into the bloodiest, most cataclysmic war that humanity has yet known— but you might not realize it. You would be in the Second World War’s shadow, but unless you could; far-sighted predictions, you would n’t know what horrors lurked in the near future.

We might be standing in the shadow of World War 3 in case the parallel is n’t too overt. right now. Future bloggers might list the wars in Ukraine and Gaza in a timeline similar to the one I just gave if World War 3.

Or we might not be in the foothills of WW3. There is still a good chance that we can avoid a more destructive, more catastrophic war and instead choose to engage in a protracted standoff. Cold War 2– instead. However, I wo n’t lie: the outlook appears to be deteriorating. One big reason is that China appears to be ramping up its support for Russia.

China is currently fighting Europe through proxy war.

The Ukraine War is a proxy war. This is not because Ukraine is a “proxy ” between the US and Europe, in the sense that we instruct Ukrainians on what to do. We do not. However, the US and Europe are assisting Ukraine in its defense to keep Russia stifled because we all know that if Ukraine does, the Baltics, Moldova, and others will follow. eventually Poland are most likely to be Putin’s next menu item.

In fact, although the US has done a lot to help Ukraine, Europe as a whole has done even more:

Given that Europe’s GDP is lower than that of the US, it has increased even more. And since the US’ aid has been mostly military – which is basically the US paying its own defense contractors – Europe’s aid has been more of an economic sacrifice.

Additionally, Europe is paying the price of the Russian gas cutoff, not the US. Ukraine’s fate is also much more important to Europe than to the US. If Ukraine survives, Putin will likely begin to destroy Europe, not to mention that Ukraine is likely to be able to join the EU. The US’ lesser degree of direct interest in the outcome of the conflict is probably one reason why Ukraine aid is now bogged down in America even as Europe’s assistance increases.

So it makes sense to view the Ukraine War as a European proxy conflict against Russia. What is more ominous is that it also makes more sense to consider it as a ; Chinese proxy conflict against Europe.

A little over a year ago, there were reports that China was sending lethal aid to Russia. Having faith in these reports, I concluded – perhaps prematurely – that China had gone “all in” on Russia’s military effort.

It’s not hard to know how much China is doing to give Russia drones and other items under the table, despite the fact that some of the reports were later walked back. But now, a year later, there are multiple credible reports that China is ramping up aid in various forms.

For instance , the US is now claiming that China is providing geospatial intelligence and material assistance to Russia. e. telling Russia where Ukrainian forces are ( to allow them to attack them ):

The US is warning allies that China has stepped up its support for Russia, including by providing geospatial intelligence, to help Moscow in its war against Ukraine.

According to those with knowledge of the situation, China has provided Russia with satellite imagery for military purposes as well as microelectronics and machine tools for tanks as a result of ongoing military integration between the two countries.

China ’s support also includes optics, propellants to be used in missiles and increased space cooperation, one of the people said.

White House National Security Council spokesman Adrienne Watson said that President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping had a conversation about China’s support for the Russian defense industry base, including machine tools, optics, nitrocellulose, microelectronics, and turbojet engines.

This is very similar to the aid that Europe and the US are providing Ukraine. Additionally, the US offers material and production assistance as well as geospatial intelligence. If reports are correct — and this time, they come from the US government as well as from major news organizations— then China is now playing the same role for Russia that Europe and the US have been playing for Ukraine.

In other words, the conflict in Ukraine now appears to be a proxy war between China and Europe. Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, definitely thinks this is the case:

The head of NATO has warned that an “alliance of authoritarian powers ” is working more closely with Western democracies. [Stoltenberg said that ] the world is now “much more dangerous, much more unpredictable, and much more violent]… ”

What does it mean that China is currently fighting Europe through proxy war.? Several things.

First of all, it implies that the US’s influence on the conflict is much more limited than we might assume. Americans like to believe that we’re still the hegemon we were in 1999 — that we can just stretch out our mighty hand to stop any war, and that wars therefore continue only when we want them to.

This is a complete fantasy. Even if America never sends another penny, Europe will continue to support Ukraine, because for them the conflict is existential ( even if the Germans don’t quite realize it yet ). Emmanuel Macron is the man, and Europe may eventually face Russia directly. already talking about this openly.

And Vladimir Putin, who is encouraged by Chinese production and intelligence support and who has staked his entire existence on the conquest of territory in East Europe, will have no reason to halt fighting, despite what the US says. The US could push Ukraine to cede land for peace, and it probably would n’t matter, because Putin wants all of Ukraine, and then he wants other European countries too.

China has mostly lobbed threats and bellicose rhetoric against Europe through its various propaganda proxies:

In other words, the Ukraine war is now a proxy war between major powers that is almost totally out of America’s control. That indicates a lack of global stability.

In fact, US actions to try to deter China from backing Russia might just end up widening the conflict. Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary, is threatening to put sanctions on Chinese banks:

The US is prepared to; sanction If Chinese banks and companies support Russia’s armed forces with , as well as Beijing’s leadership; the invasion of Ukraine, US Treasury Secretary ;Janet Yellen said last Monday…

She claimed that China has the right to establish a relationship with Russia, noting that the United States views a large portion of trade between the two nations. S. as non-problematic But the provision of military aid from Beijing to Moscow could trigger sanctions.

Of course, since Trump has already stated , the election of Trump later this year could prevent that. conciliatory sentiments toward Russia and has recently shown some signs of ; wanting to accommodate China as well. But if Trump’s America withdraws into isolationism — or worse, collapses into civil conflict — it will simply give a green light to the authoritarian powers to carry out more conquests, as the Axis was emboldened in the 1930s.

The US would eventually have to rush back in after the fact, as it did in World War II, or suffer as a result from being relegated to the status of a failed, friendless middle power.

Asia is a tinderbox

Naturally, if and when the US and China declare war, World War 3 will actually start. Almost everyone thinks this would happen if and when China attacks Taiwan, but in fact there are several other flashpoints that are just as scary and which many people seem to be overlooking.

First, there is the South China Sea, where China has used various “gray zone ” bullying tactics to pressure the Philippines into giving up its maritime territory. Ian Ellis has a thorough list of these:

The US is a formal treaty ally of the Philippines and has vowed to uphold its obligations and protect its allies; against potential threats.

Then there is the ever-present threat of North Korea, which ; some experts believe is seriously considering restarting the Korean War. That would trigger a US defense of South Korea, which in turn might bring in China, as it did in the 1950s.

The border between China and India should also be mentioned. China has recently reaffirmed its assertion to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, calling it “South Tibet ” and declaring; that the area was part of China since ancient times. Of course, India has vehemently rejected this idea. An India-China border war might not start World War 3, but the US. would undoubtedly try to support India in its struggle against China, as ; it did in 2022.

There are several flashpoints in Asia that could lead to World War 3 right now, even as Europe and China become more deeply entrenched in a proxy war. Asia is an absolute tinderbox right now.

China is improving its readiness for war. The US is not.

Most Americans are still focused on domestic conflict, but a few Americans like Jamie Dimon are starting to recognize this. As a result, America has n’t mustered the urgency necessary to resuscitate its desiccated defense-industrial base. China is building up its military massively, but the US is lagging behind. This is from a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies:

The US defense industrial base…lacks the capacity, responsiveness, flexibility, and surge capability to meet the U. S. military ’s production needs as China ramps up defense industrial production. Without making necessary adjustments, the United States runs the risk of sagging deterrence and undermining its ability to fight China and other rivals. A significant part of the problem is that the US defense ecosystem remains on a peacetime footing, despite a protracted war in Ukraine, an active war in the Middle East, and growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific in such areas as the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula.

There are numerous pressing issues facing America.

First, the Chinese defense industrial base is increasingly on a wartime footing and, in some areas, outpacing the US defense industrial base…Chinese defense companies…are producing a growing quantity and quality of land, maritime, air, space, and other capabilities. China is investing heavily in munitions and acquiring advanced weapons and equipment five to six times more quickly than the United States. China is now the world’s largest shipbuilder, with a shipbuilding capacity that is roughly 230 times that of the United States. One of China ’s large shipyards, such as Jiangnan Shipyard, has more capacity than all US shipyards combined, according to US Navy estimates.

Second, the US defense industrial base is still grappling with a number of production issues, including a lack of urgency in revitalizing the defense industrial ecosystem. There is still a shortage of ammunition and other weapons systems, which would make for a drawn-out war in places like the Indo-Pacific. Supply chain challenges also remain serious, and today’s workforce is inadequate to meet the demands of the defense industrial base.

Chinese defense industry is now more focused on the wartime. ” If that is n’t a clear enough warning, I don’t know what would be. ;; You have now been warned!

Everybody who will listen needs to be yelling these warnings out loud. Instead, many Americans ( including in the US Navy ) seem intent on hiding the issues out of shame:

As the Navy’s largest US trade show gets underway, officers in charge of the service’s marquee shipbuilding programs won’t offer the usual briefings with reporters and analysts about them…That break from the tradition…comes just days after the Navy announced that Four of its most crucial shipbuilding initiatives are years behind schedule.

The Navy’s top admiral and civilian secretary have still not responded to questions about a damning Navy report released Tuesday outlining the sweeping failure of the Navy and its industrial partners to make expected progress on two submarine programs, an aircraft carrier and a new class of frigates…

The Navy and Pentagon are investing billions in modernizing and upgrading shipyards in an effort to build and repair ships more quickly and with China, with delays of one to three years, depending on the program. Beijing’s navy has already surpassed the US in size.

However, the service’s plans have been thrown into uncertainty due to supply chain issues caused by Covid and the Navy’s insistence on changing the design of its ships even as workers build them.

Aware of the issues for years, the Navy is still unsure how to fix them…

According to two people with knowledge of the situation, Navy leaders instructed the program managers not to hold their public briefings because the conference approached the release of the shipbuilding study [. ]

I can assure you that someone in the Navy’s public relations department believes that simply refusing to talk to reporters about these issues indicates that the issues have been resolved.

This is typical of the ostrich-like mentality that I see among a very wide variety of Americans, from Congressional staffers to tech moguls to news reporters and pundits, regarding the imminent threat of war with China. However, refusing to discuss issues does n’t solve them. it simply makes us less prepared to deal with them.

China’s leaders, on the other hand, are not operating under such comforting illusions. In addition to their massive military buildup, they are taking various other actions that might or might not entail purposeful preparation for war, but definitely have the effect ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; of making China better prepared should a war break out.

For instance, China’s dominance of the battery and electric vehicle industries protects them from a potential blockade of their oil supplies via the ; Straits of Malacca.

Moreover, Xi has commanded the nation; improve its food self-sufficiency; since it was; 94 % self-sufficient in food back in 2000, this is probably not an impossible task. In the event of a war, that will protect China from any potential food import restrictions.

As for finance, China has been stockpiling gold and urging trading partners to conduct business in Yuan more frequently. That should help neuter threats of financial sanctions, like the one Janet Yellen just issued.

Again, I’m not sure which of these measures represents deliberate preparation for a great-power conflict. But they all definitely make China better-prepared. China is resolving its biggest problems in fuel, food, and finance, despite the US’s best efforts to ignore its glaring inability to build ships, missiles, and ammunition.

The possibility that revisionist great powers will launch a world war in order to overturn the global order is now a lot higher than it was a few years ago, and arguably even higher than one a long time ago. Americans need to be screaming our heads off about this, so that we can start planning for this disaster instead of allowing ourselves to be blindsided by it today.

We need to be talking about this on national TV, in the New York Times, on podcasts, and on whatever social media the CCP still does n’t control. What I mostly hear right now is a deafening, horrible silence.

This article; was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion With your kind permission, Substack and is republished. Read the original and become a Noahopinion subscriber here.

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