Long road ahead for Thai PM Paetongtarn

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, centre, visits flood-affected Chiang Rai province in northern Thailand on Friday. (Photo: Government House)
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, heart, visits flood-affected Chiang Rai state in northern Thailand on Friday. ( Photo: Government House )

The Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration’s policies have possible, according to economists and political economists, but the government will have to rush and see how they turn out.

Ms Paetongtarn next Thursday delivered her administration’s policy speech to congress, focusing on measures to improve person’s financial well-being and increase the government’s income.

Mr Paetongtarn outlined plans for debt restructuring, especially concerning home and auto loans, alongside assistance for casual debtors. Long-term procedures were also mentioned, such as developing pleasure compounds, which include casinos, and a water management initiative to combat consistent flood and drought.

Before beginning job, the government is required to provide its policy speech to parliament.

Focus on financial comfort

Nonarit Bisonyabut, a senior research fellow at Thailand Development Research Institute ( TDRI), backed the policy statement, although he pointed out that 20–30 % of key elements appeared to be missing.

” We must realize that this is still only a plan news, basically an idea. We’ll have to see whether or not these tips can be put into practice, he said.

Comprehensive debt reform is a wise and essential course of action, particularly given the country’s skyrocketing rates of home debt, he said. The key problem, however, is to find an effective strategy, as previous attempts, including loan suspension and dialogue, have met limited achievement.

He claimed that while it is vital to pay off household debt, the government must figure out a way to avoid delaying the process for generations to come.

Mr Nonarit welcomed the government’s revision of its 10, 000-baht digital budget system, although the plan also requires large spending.

During the first stage, the signal money will be first distributed to 14.5 million susceptible people, or 12.4 million with state security accounts and 2.1 million disabled persons, with each receiving 10, 000 ringgit.

The second phase, which is for registered ready consumers, depends on the preparation of the settlement program itself. In the fiscal year 2025, a budget of 187 billion ringgit has been designated for transmission.

Giving out money to the most vulnerable parties, according to Mr. Nonarit, may have the desired effect. The transition to cash payment, which is expected to be relatively simple, is expected to have a significant effect.

The second phase would assist those who are still in need despite not having any monetary issues.

Nonarit: Handbook for vulnerable groups simply

Nonarit: Handbook for vulnerable groups simply

Thanaporn Sriyakul, chairman of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said the Paetongtarn state focuses heavily on economic plans, which address the person’s lives.

He urged the government to accelerate its debt restructuring and finish it in 15 days because the issue is immediately under the president’s control, with the release date set for later this month.

Mr. Thanaporn cited as an illustration the success of debt reform initiatives for cover in which cost payments to the Financial Institutions Development Fund were lowered to help consumers from state businesses.

The banks ‘ “principle is sound,” he said, but “improvements may be needed to make sure they use the funds to restructure debts for those in need rather than to fund their regular projects.

” This should not be difficult for the Finance Ministry to handle, given the clear financial parameters involved”, he added.

Thanaporn: Complete debt restructuring now

Thanaporn: Complete debt restructuring now

Megaproject concerns

Mr. Nonarit described legalizing some underground economic activities as part of a casino-entertainment complex as intriguing but difficult. While it could bring economic benefits, there are also social downsides to consider.

” As a concept, it’s intriguing and has potential. The real question is how to make it work”, he said.

Megaprojects like the Land Bridge have significant economic repercussions, and his concern is with the state’s budgetary constraints.

There are financial risks if the government ends up paying a significant portion of the project’s cost, he added, and it is unclear how much investment will be made by the state and the private sector.

” Undoing it, there is talk about a land reclamation project and the construction of nine artificial islands to combat rising sea levels,” he said. None of these topics were covered in the election campaign.

According to Mr. Nonarit, governments have a tight window of time to address the long-term issues that are causing natural disasters to become more severe as a result of climate change. Furthermore, even long-term planning may become obsolete because of constant changes.

The most recent concept, similar to the” Sponge City” concept, focuses on designing cities to allow people to coexist with water rather than try to combat it, he said, noting the government has been slow to take this approach into account.

He argued that local organizations and communities must work together to stop climate change and that the government alone cannot stop it.

Mr. Thanaporn claimed that the government’s new megaprojects are in line with the vision of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is frequently referred to as the “big boss” of the ruling Pheu Thai Party. Thaksin is Ms Paetongtarn’s father.

Thaksin is known for smuggling big ideas into people’s minds to pique interest and draw attention, but he claimed that these tactics frequently fall short of expectations.

Given previous projects tainted by irregularities, like the Baan Ua-arthorn housing welfare scheme and the rice-pledging project, megaprojects today often raise concerns about potential corruption, he said.

” Let’s wait and see how the Land Bridge and casino-entertainment complex projects develop”, he said.

Deal with debt first

Chaiwat Sathawornwichit, a list-MP of the opposition People’s Party, said the government must prioritise tackling household debt as some families are struggling financially and resorting to non-formal loans.

Despite declaring it a national agenda item, he claimed, the Srettha Thavisin administration failed to address debt issues.

He suggested that the government might consider lowering interest rates and payment obligations as well, and that lowering income and lowering the cost of living may not be sufficient.

He claimed that because there are n’t enough effective measures, the government needs to find solutions to the problem.

” If the government keeps on relying on superficial activities like holding press conferences and hosting]promotional ] events, the problem will persist”, he said.

The digital wallet scheme, according to Mr. Chaiwat, should be put on hold because it is unprofitable. He claimed that the 450 billion baht program funding would be better spent on pressing issues like providing soft loans to those in need.

He also criticised the government’s foreign policy as being rather weak, saying Thailand is the second-largest economy in Asean and should position itself more strategically.

Additionally, he claimed that the government should increase cooperation with other countries in light of the rapid rise in call-center scams.

Chaiwat: Downplays ' Baan Pa ' threat

Chaiwat: Downplays ‘ Baan Pa ‘ threat

Potential risks

When asked about the challenges the government faces, Mr. Thanaporn stated that amending the charter is not a pressing issue and that there are indications that the situation may continue. He claimed that the Senate may be dragging its feet with the proposed public referendum.

If the government wants to have the charter changed before the next general election, he said, the prime minister will need to talk with the Bhumjaithai Party, which is thought to have ties to the majority of senators.

The political analyst noted that the risk to the government is low despite the legal conflict and intense scrutiny from the Palang Pracharath Party following the removal of a PPRP leader’s faction from the cabinet.

” I do n’t think there are significant risks for the government, which has the overwhelming majority. Legal threats from Baan Pa will likely fall as the political landscape is shifting]to Bhumjaithai]”, he said.

” Baan Pa” refers to the Five Provinces Bordering Forest Preservation Foundation, at the 1st Infantry Regiment in Bangkok’s Phaya Thai district. The foundation is believed to be Gen Prawit’s unofficial office.

According to Mr. Chaiwat, the government has a “family cabinet” mentality, which leaves state officials unsure about who is actually in charge and unsure about policy continuity.

The opposition MP also expressed doubt that the government is interested in rewriting the charter because it is a broad topic. He expressed doubts about the efficacy of the drug control policy as a result of the government’s inconsistent stance on marijuana.

Mr. Chaiwat noted that having several coalition partners does influence the formulation of the government’s policy, and this is evident in the cabinet lineup.

According to him, the stability of the government will likely depend on how interests are divided and divided among the coalition partners.

Continue Reading

Commentary: The Fed Is making Hong Kong’s billionaire landlords anxious

HONG KONG: Among those looking forward to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, some are as anxious as&nbsp, Hong Kong’s home tycoons who are now dealing with slow home sales, unoccupied office buildings, and insubordinate tenants demanding contract renegotiations. &nbsp,

About 60 per share of listed property businesses ‘ loan is&nbsp, borrowed at floating rates. Banks &nbsp, charge New World Development an&nbsp, average 1.1 to 1.2 per cent over Hong Kong Inter-bank Offered Rate ( HIBOR ), whose movements track the fed fund rate&nbsp, because of the Hong Kong dollar peg.

A one percentage-point&nbsp, rate cut is keep chief executive officer Adrian Cheng, a third-generation heir&nbsp, from a billionaire home, HK$ 1.1 billion ( US$ 141 million ) &nbsp, and increase revenue by a third, according to Morgan Stanley quotes.

New World, &nbsp, one of Hong Kong’s most obliged engineers, paid HK$ 2.5 billion in funding costs&nbsp, in the second-half of 2023, &nbsp, eroding 44 per share of the firm’s working income. &nbsp,

But more importantly, the Fed’s easing cycle may begin to support large landowners make an investment case for the goods they try to sell, or use as collateral&nbsp, for institution money. Now, the city’s overall real estate market -&nbsp, from personal to financial to&nbsp, offices -&nbsp, suffers from bad carry, in that the rent an owner may expect to collect is nothing close to paying for financing costs.

Leasing&nbsp, out Grade-A offices, for instance, yields on average only about 3.2 per cent, not enough to cover the one-month HIBOR’s 3.9 per cent. &nbsp,

Continue Reading

Why Trump should bring back the gold standard – Asia Times

In his campaign for president, past president Donald Trump has talked extensively about prices. Also, his campaign has spoken about the importance of keeping the US dollar as the world’s major reserve currency.

He has not, however, proposed any changes to the US economic system or the Federal Reserve. If he were to be elected president again, his executive power would probably be the most crucial reform, returning the US to the gold standard.

Wrongly, metal has been content to decades of criticism. Under the classic, pre-1914 silver standard, the US became an economic giant.

By the turn of the 20th&nbsp, century, the US market was bigger than the next three markets – Germany, France and Britain –&nbsp, combined. Prices was almost nonexistent, but the economy was growing faster than the economy.

In contrast, the Bretton Woods metal exchange standard, which had significantly higher residual tax rates, saw higher development with lower inflation during the quarter century. If the post-1971 economy had continued to grow at the rate it grew under Bretton Woods, it would be 20 times larger ( about$ 5 trillion ) today.

Screenshot

The earlier gold techniques broke down due to mishandling. Countries halted the traditional silver conventional during World War I. During the conflict, some financed their wasting by printing money, creating inflation.

After the battle, some suffered inflation. People returned to their pre-war transfer rates, requiring strong deflations. The metal standard’s global character caused regional deflations.

The resulting economic cramps were so intense that almost all nations on gold, including the US ( in 1933, under Franklin Roosevelt ), devalued against it.

Recoveries usually began soon after depreciation. The Hoover and Roosevelt governments’ high tariffs, income increases, and large rules of the US stifled treatment and precipitated the Great Depression.

The Bretton Woods version of the gold standard ( 1945-1971 ) had regulations designed to prevent the extremes of hyperinflation and deflation. However, the US, the crucial state in the program, created inflation at levels inconsistent with the platinum price.

After a decade of such prices, the US government faced a choice: strengthen economic policy, devalue the dollar against metal as Roosevelt had done or leave gold completely.

In the US and around the world, President Richard Nixon abandoned gold, leading to a decade of stagflation, a half-century of higher inflation, slower growth, and more economic volatility.

Both Nixon and Roosevelt used executive orders or assertions to alter or change the economy’s value in gold. A re-elected Trump could do the same. &nbsp,

The US president has the authority to determine the dollar’s transfer charge. The Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund provides the president with a means for doing so: Title 31, section 5302 ( b ) of the US Code specifically authorizes dealing in gold.

But, member nations are prohibited from tying their economies to gold by a 1976 amendment to the International Monetary Fund’s articles of agreement, which was approved by the US state and is now in Title 22, part 286e–5 of the US Code.

Legitimate defenses may involve using the gold price as a goal without carrying out a real forgiveness at that price or using gold-denominated stocks until the IMF agreement may be modified.

A re-elected leader, such as Donald Trump, might make the announcement that he will set the price for gold at the sector after a brief period of adjustment, say 45 times, to expel golden speculators. As many investors are likely to sell gold, central banks may buy it up on the way down to get the lowest possible price.

At the current market rate of approximately$ 2, 500 per troy ounce, the value of the US gold reserve of 260 million troy ounces is more than$ 650 billion, about 12 % of the$ 5.6 trillion monetary base.

While adding to the golden stock over time may be healthier, this cover ratio may be appropriate. Any money must be exchanged for gold, no every dollar at when, according to the gold standard.

Money-related government may tighten monetary policy and purchase silver on the global marketplaces as needed if redemptions are great. Markets usually prefer to hold bulky real gold as long as the program is reliable.

Trump might make the announcement in collaboration with the other major international money markets, including China and the Eurozone, to further the plan.

A bilateral gold fix would have the benefit of properly distributing financial responsibility among the three major exchange rates.

No part of the group would be able to quickly defraud or rule the method because all three regions are enormous markets with large gold resources. The rest of the world may be free to mend gold, set one of the trio’s exchange rates, or hold onto their current form of currency management.

Trump’s main concerns would be addressed by a new silver standard. Critically, it would lock in lower prices. Exchange rates would be fixed, meaning there would n’t be any more complaints about currency manipulation.

The US trade deficit would probably drop, as multiple currencies may be” good as gold”, reducing the country’s want to hoard cash. In order to promote business and facilitate trade, it would remove a lot of speculation and volatility from the financial markets and commodity prices.

The next 25 years ‘ economic bubble and statues would disappear. Gold do encourage member governments to reinstate funds discipline. Secondly, such a system may help weak nations become more financially secure, probably reducing migrant outflows. &nbsp,

Basic financial reform is a difficult decision to make when it means a protracted march through the swamps of Washington, DC. Trump might use professional power to create a better program, which would make story.

Sean Rushton is adjunct fellow at the Jack Kemp Foundation, a US-based charitable institution.

Continue Reading

Rice mills group calls for banks to ease lending rules

The Thai Northeastern Rice Mills Association is requesting assistance from the government in negotiations to relax their lending restrictions in order to prepare for the upcoming harvest time because corn mill apparently lack financial cash.

The Thai Northeastern Rice Mills Association’s leader, Wichai Srinawakul, stated yesterday that commercial businesses had strict lending laws for corn mill, which affects their ability to purchase corn from producers for the upcoming season, which starts in the Northeast in November.

Mr. Wichai claims that even though the loans were secured, the banks just approved a certain amount of credit for the grain mill operators. The decision had an impact on the profitability of the mills as they prepared to buy rice from growers who have a 7.500 million-tonne harvest of rice in the northern region this year.

” Over 40 % of the 160 corn mill that comprise our agency’s account require funding from state-run business banks, and the sleep applied for loans from private lenders. If the authorities may work with the banks to alleviate lending restrictions that limit borrowing to rice mills, farmers will, thus, benefit greatly from the effort”, he stated.

Mr Wichai’s remarks followed a report Wednesday from Rangsan Sabaimuang, president of Thai Rice Mills Associations, regarding the falling rice prices.

According to Mr Rangsan, the rice mills have had to reduce price offerings to farmers. The price of polished rice dropped from 17, 800 baht to 17, 500 baht per tonne, and the price of unmilled rice dropped from 12, 000 baht to 10, 800–11, 000 baht per tonne.

If their finances do n’t improve, Mr. Rangsan warned that the mills might stop selling rice in a week.

He mentioned that the Phetchabun Farm Plants Association had previously announced the purchase of corn from farmers in a similar way. In response to a lack of funds, the group announced that it would not be purchasing grain from September 13 through September 15.

He said Pichai Naripthaphan, the newly appointed commerce minister, must support farmers and mills by negotiating with banks to offer low-interest loans for mill operators.

Pramote Charoensilp, president of the Thai Agriculturist Association, said he does not believe rice mills will stop buying rice from farmers.

Continue Reading

Chiang Rai grapples with flood disaster

Northern state’s primary air-port closed, heart of Muang area hard inundated

Lee RAI: The economic center of Thailand’s westernmost state is now inundated, with waters reaching waist-deep ranges and continuing to rise due to the overflowing Kok River.

The closing of Mae Fah Luang Chiang Rai International Airport was caused by a flood on Thursday, with a Thai AirAsia flight leaving at 1.10pm the next trip to go through.

Access to important areas, including Mae Fah Luang Chiang Rai International Airport, the five-way Pho Khun crossing, and the municipal house, was affected by the closing of roads and bridges in the Muang district on Thursday night.

Due to strong currents, emergency started on Wednesday nights, when residents were unable to stay in the ground-floor homes. To help in evacuating those trapped by the rapid-flowing waters, jet skis were used.

Chiangrai Prachanukroh Hospital in the Muang city said on Thursday that it was only handling urgent situations.

Muang area in Chiang Rai is one of the six regions that has experienced flood damage. The others are Chiang Khong, Chiang Saen, Mae Chan, Mae Fah Luang and Mae Sai.

More than 10, 000 homes have been affected, with three incidents reported in Mae Fah Luang. ( Story continues below )

On Thursday, a sea police officer carries a child through the Mae Sai region of Chiang Rai province's deep water. ( Photo supplied/Wassayos Ngamkham )

On Thursday, a sea police officer carries a child through the Mae Sai region of Chiang Rai province’s deep water. ( Photo supplied/Wassayos Ngamkham )

On Thursday, local people in Chiang Rai do their cleaning near the Mae Sai borders station. ( Photo: Hug Mae Sai Facebook )

On Thursday, local people in Chiang Rai do their cleaning near the Mae Sai borders station. ( Photo: Hug Mae Sai Facebook )

Sai River falling

In Mae Sai area, authorities said the level of the Sai River was falling and Phahon Yothin Road, which had been greatly flooded, was back to normal on Thursday.

However, the problems in the Muang district’s center continued to be challenging.

Due to the damage caused by flood and the need to clean up the Mae Sai boundary station, drivers are still able to travel to Myanmar.

On Thursday, Thai authorities had to integrate with Myanmar immigration officials before returning to their country on base after being left stranded on the Thai area during the flood.

On Thursday night, sellers from the border’s Sai Lom Joy business arrived in their stores to begin repairing the damage.

People were now able to enter the Koh Sai group, which was earlier impenetrable. However, some sites were still under waters.

On Thursday, tambon Mae Sai city officials, police, rescue personnel, and Navy officers went to evacuate people who had been stranded in their flooded houses for more than two days.

To assist in the evacuation of flood victims, aquatic officers with flat-bottomed boats were dispatched from three stations in the state. In some places that ships could not accomplish, policeman had to wade through rainwater to remove victims, mainly the elderly, women and children.

After the Kok valley burst its banks, causing significant flooding in many of the city’s downtown areas, rescue team and boats were dispatched to support disaster victims flee their homes. Around 30 centimeters great were the floodwaters at the Phor Khun crossroads.

Some roads that had been overflowed after the Sai River overflowed were once more accessible after the river’s water level decreased by about one meter, or near the standard amount, according to Suttipong Juljarern, the internal ministry’s permanent secretary. ( Story continues below )

After water recedes on Thursday in front of the Mae Sai boundary checkpoint in Chiang Rai's Mae Sai city, a person inspects dust that washed onto the road as a result of the floods. ( Photo: Hug Mae Sai Facebook )

After water recedes on Thursday in front of the Mae Sai boundary checkpoint in Chiang Rai’s Mae Sai city, a person inspects dust that washed onto the road as a result of the floods. ( Photo: Hug Mae Sai Facebook )

40 regions on update

Over 40 counties were on alert for potential flash floods as a fresh tropical depression is anticipated to increase through September 18, according to an article released by the Office of National Water Resources on Thursday.

According to the authorities, at least nine people have died as a result of floods in the northern regions of Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai since Tuesday.

From Friday through the first of the week, the weather department anticipates more heavy rain to arrive early in the nation.

Since Aug 16, floods and landslides have killed 33 citizens across Thailand and affected almost 110, 000 homes, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation.

In Thailand, about 34, 000 families, mostly in the northwestern region, have been affected by Typhoon Yagi, the strongest wind to reach Asia this year. The wind has even wreaked havoc in neighbouring Vietnam, where it left at least 157 people dead and 139 more lost.

Continue Reading

Can China’s export surge save the day? – Asia Times

The best economic news President Xi Jinping’s country has received in a while comes from the 8.7 % increase in Chinese imports in August.

The data, which came in significantly higher than the 6.5 % increase most economists anticipated, points to a crucial growth driver for the world’s largest trading country, which is now in desperate need.

According to Nomura Holdings ‘ experts,” the continued strong run of export may really delay near-term policy help.”

China appears to be a clear winner from persistently high global prices, which is boosting the country’s attractiveness in foreign markets. Wei Yao, an economist at Societe Generale, stated that “it truly offers some help to China’s growth.”

The question, of course, is whether the trade engine may continue firing to mitigate robust domestic headwinds. They include a deepening home issue that’s undermining company and home confidence, stagnant wages, negative pressures and great youth unemployment.

The bad news is that export gains do n’t appear to be sufficient to offset the long-term downward pressure on other parts of the economy. The good news: in the short work, rising exports could supply Xi’s staff greater latitude to employ much-needed structural changes.

Finding strategies to regulate real estate markets, repair the stability sheets of large property developers, and balance regional government finances is still a challenge for Xi’s team. Mainland property markets, noted Standard Chartered Bank CEO Bill Winters, have n’t yet found a floor.

The property market has been a slow grind over, according to Winters, who is aware that the property market is the underlying cause of many of the trust concerns.

He continued,” there are some signs from time to time that we’re seeing an increase in activity, but it does n’t feel like we’ve really found a bottom in terms of price.”

Ringing Zu Yu, the president of Shanghai CRIC Info Tech Co, makes another point about the sluggish pace among municipalities in terms of bolstering property markets around the country. ” Regional governments have made gradual headway”, Ding noted.

Imports, process, are proving to be far less strong than exports, a sign that island desire may require a policy-delivered jolt. Although a rate cut from the People’s Bank of China is possible, many academics believe a fiscal boost would have a bigger impact.

According to the Financial Times, investment banks economists believe that China has acquired a US$ 1.4 trillion signal program over the next two decades to rekindle economical growth and prevent deflation from ingraining its roots.

If that number is best, it would be more than double the economic “bazooka” Beijing deployed after the 2008 Lehman Brothers problems. ” The longer that depreciation sits, the bigger the process in terms of reflation”, Robin Xing, general China analyst at Morgan Stanley, told the Financial Times.

Some people think the China-cratering narrative has been a little too much, according to experts and economists.

As Louis Gave, scientist at Gavekal Dragonomics, observes, “it’s hard to find information in the&nbsp, Chinese&nbsp, information that home energy need has taken a noticeable change for the worse”. China’s crude oil imports were up in August, he noted.

” And talk that China’s fuel consumption is down because construction is cratering does n’t stand up well, either”, Gave said. ” Even at its height, the construction sector accounted for less than 4 % of&nbsp, China’s diesel – or gasoline – consumption”.

However, the softness of Chinese exports suggests home demand remains sleepy. The 2 % increase from the previous year on average in August is insignificant in comparison. Lethargic goods, noted analyst Raymond Yeung at Australia &amp, New Zealand Banking Group, “mirrors its poor private demand”.

China’s” strong” trade surplus, Yeung added, may exacerbate” concerns” about mainland “overcapacity”, intensifying the blowback already fomenting among lawmakers in the US, Europe and elsewhere.

Pan Gongsheng, the government of the PBOC, faces a special issue as a result of all of this. Internationalizing the renminbi was a major concern for the Communist Party during the Xi era.

Beijing could become a bigger vote problem in the US, where both presidential candidates have taken harsh aim at China’s trade policies, if more drastic rate cuts are implemented. This will unnerve world markets and cause unrest in the country. Additionally, it may raise the risk of default for Chinese property developers who are unable to pay offshore loan.

Appearing at next year’s Bund Summit in Shanghai, Pan’s PBOC father, Yi Gang, urged Beijing to work with greater policy necessity to maintain customer charges. They should concentrate on battling the negative force, he said.

Yi emphasized that” the key words are: how to boost domestic desire, how to properly deal with the situation of the real estate business, as well as the local authorities debt problem, and how to control the confidence of society.”

The former PBOC head remarked that “at this point, proactive fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy are important.”

One option is for Pan’s team to further lower reserve requirement ratios for banks further, said Zou Lan, director of the PBoC’s monetary policy department.

The challenge for Chinese policymakers is to manage the housing crisis and ensure that there is enough domestic demand to maintain the high level of economic growth, according to economist Jeffrey Schott of the Washington-based think tank.

According to Schott,” that is so crucial for the Chinese economy and for moving more and more people toward higher standards of living.”

China’s performance so far in 2024 is still marred by weak consumption. In July, for example, retail sales in Beijing dropped 3.8 % year on year. In Shanghai, sales fell 6.1 %.

According to economist Zhang Zhiwei of Pinpoint Asset Management,” the country continues to show divergent trends with weak domestic demand and strong export competitiveness, both reflecting the domestic deflationary pressure.” ” The question is how long exports can continue to grow given the deteriorating US economy and rising trade tensions,” the quote reads.

Strategist Yeap Jun Rong of IG International stated that” the lack of conviction around China’s economic recovery continues to leave investors shunning.”

Consider the$ 6.5 trillion in market value lost from Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since their peak in 2021, a loss comparable to the size of the entire Japanese market.

The issue is that the economy is in a worse place than I thought six months ago, according to Lazard Asset Management strategist Ron Temple, who quoted Bloomberg as saying: “it’s been an incredibly bad period for markets. The longer the government stays silent about initiating significant demand increases, the longer the consumer confidence damage will persist and the harder it will be to stop.

Count Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, economist at Union Bancaire Privée, among those who worry China’s “export momentum in August remains unsustainable”. He stated that” we do not anticipate this trend to continue even though net exports will positively contribute to GDP in August.” Additionally, weak imports suggest that domestic demand is softening.

The export portion of the equation is a positive force for the time being. So are trends in foreign direct investment ( FDI) vis-à-vis top economies like Germany. FDI from Germany into China rose to a record in the first half of 2024, reaching 2.48 billion euros ($ 2.72 billion ) in the first three months of the year and 4.8 billion euros ($ 5.28 billion ) in the April-June period.

This dynamic contradicts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s warnings about “growing geopolitical risks” between China and the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU, has been encouraging European companies to “de-risk” their positions in Xi’s economy.

” The trend is particularly notable for big German corporations, which have ramped up their investments in the Chinese market, which has long been their largest, most profitable single market”, Zheng Chunrong, director of the German Studies Centre at Tongji University, told the Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times.

According to Maximilian Butek, executive director of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, “our data shows that more than half of German companies plan to increase their investments in the country and the vast majority do n’t plan to leave.” This is particularly true for large corporations and the electronic or automotive industries.

Even so, noted UBP’s Casanova, some of the August export surge may reflect a “front-loading response” to the EU’s impending tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. ” These provisional tariffs”, he said,” will last for a maximum of four months, during which a final decision on definitive duties must be made”.

If adopted, Casanova said,” these duties would be in effect for five years. Additionally, exports of aluminum ( 24.1 % vs. prior 20.5 % ), chemical fertilizers ( 31.6 % vs. prior 15.2 % ) and steel products ( 6.8 % vs. prior -2.4 % ) also saw significant increases”.

According to Casanova,” this trend is understandable in the context of upcoming EV tariffs and a rise in demand for chemical fertilizers in the wake of sanctions against Russia.” Exports to the United States slowed to 4.8 %” versus 7.6 % in the prior month, while demand from ASEAN countries also showed a slight recovery.

The problem, he concluded, is that” a slowdown in major economies, particularly the US and Europe, may diminish demand for Chinese exports in the coming months. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the weeks leading up to the US election in November may lead to uncertainty that could affect trade agreements and market access.

Thanks to geopolitical currents– including the November 5 US election–” China’s latest export push is backfiring”, claims economist Jeemin Bang at Moody’s Analytics. ” Its policy-led ramp-up in manufacturing has sparked protectionism abroad, potentially leaving China with few viable export markets”.

The end result is that while export growth is advantageous right now, it may not be a reliable engine until 2025. That will require more courageous actions to address China’s fundamental problems, such as a persistent property crisis and domestic demand-boosting measures that wo n’t go away.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Continue Reading

The growth of malignant and exclusionary social movements – Asia Times

Today, discussion, allow alone consensus, is frowned upon and the benefit is given to exclusive cultural movements built on malicious rather than goodwill impulses. The US and some additional societies are riding into toxic polarization.

As Heritage Foundation leader Keith Roberts stated in July 2024,” ]W] electronic are in the operation of the next American Revolution, which may be violent if the remaining allows it to be”.

Violence against women was already popular ten years ago, primarily in developed nations and regions that were struggling financially as they incorporated themselves into the capitalist global economy.

However, more recently, dangerous fragmentation has also threatened to engulf nations at the center of the democratic political political movement, including France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US.

In every situation, the malevolent social activity aims to destroy a political get built—at least notionally—on principles of inclusion and benevolence, which the activity blames for its followers ‘ loss of economic and political status within their societies.

The apparent inexorability of this takeover, which is most striking, yet counterintuitive, is a result of the failure of parties from the center and left to provide coherent alternatives, and the resultant environment in which intense positions are gradually normalized.

The end result is a problems of democracy that stifles people’s confidence in social self-government because it is unable to solve pressing issues like climate change, financial inequality, and mass migration. To change this tendency, we must first understand the conditions that brought it on.

Nine Advancements That Cause Toxic Polarization

When a convergence of social, economic, and cultural conditions triggers three potent forces, dangerous polarization becomes feasible, if not unavoidable, when these three factors are activated:

Malicious bonding: An impulse to crystallize communities built on resentment, hatred, and a wish to remove those who are “different”,

The lack mind: A emotional state that views social life as a zero-sum game pitting oneself and a cultural affinity group against a cultural, racial, or class-based another, and in which case, one is in the state of a zero-sum game.

Trans-historical pain: The anxieties and compensating behaviours that have developed over the course of several centuries of physical and emotional abuse and have become embedded in our social habits.

When they converge, these conditions lay the groundwork for a conventional wisdom built on limited assumptions about what can be achieved by society. This in turn creates new, exclusionary social movements, particularly among the dominant racial, ethnic, and class-based groups, which in turn create a deep sense of alienation from the current order.

We define alienation as feeling distasteful and alienated from the larger or what society is evolving into. Alienation can quickly turn into a lack of sympathy and lead to open hostility toward the supposedly undeserving portion of the population.

Social movements, which are the zeitgeist’s incubators and carriers, are the driving forces behind this process. Exclusionary social movements, which are prevalent in toxic polarization, are always either present or in the past.

So are inclusionary social movements, which aim to build on a very different set of impulses: empathy, goodwill, good-faith communication, mutual aid, and an openness to finding common ground in inclusive and widely beneficial change.

These two movements have historically clashed or coexisted, but neither has a long-term advantage over the other. However, we are currently seeing the convergence of nine significant developments, some of which date back decades, that have contributed to the development of powerful and potentially long-lasting exclusionary social movements:

Decreased economic progress and social mobility: The developed world has witnessed a decline in economic expansion and social mobility stemming from the outsourcing of jobs and vastly unequal growth patterns in the developing world.

Rising global migration rates, in part due to the imposition of neoliberal economic policies, which have been complemented by insurgencies in the Middle East and parts of East Asia, have made dominant ethnic groups in receiving nations feel threatened. The main reason for concern is frequently” job theft” or crime, but the root cause is racial or cultural prejudice.

Self-inflicted austerity: Four decades of fiscal austerity, rationalized by neoliberal economics and concentrated primarily on social spending, stalemate and stigmatize previously successful efforts to bring underprivileged and socially marginalized groups into the circle of prosperity.

The state has come to be the main force over the past two centuries for fulfilling the promises of the inclusive or goodwill agenda. The result of austerity is” starving the state,” which causes programs that a large portion of the population relies on as well as the goodwill agenda on which they were founded.

Benefits are curtailed, service worsens, and the citizenry become disgruntled or even alienated from the system that created and built loyalty through them.

A decline in the state’s ability to provide services is another side of the constraints imposed by austerity and rising debt. Bureaucratic organizations become less effective, more patient, and less personal. Also, the physical infrastructure deteriorates. Residents of these developments feel even more alienated by the state.

Rising debt at all levels: While the severity of debt burdens is frequently debatable, they encourage austerity at the government level and hinder households ‘ and governments ‘ ability to invest for the future, further stifling inclusive movements.

Over the past 50 years, these debt burdens have come increasingly under the control of global banks, investors, and multinational institutions: a “debt industry” that sees them as an opportunity to exploit rather than a means of equitable growth and development.

A sense of national decline is produced by political and economic collapse, stalemated wars that cost money and lives and cause national morale crises, and the erosion of a previously exalted geopolitical status.

Fifty years of failed wars, from Vietnam to Iraq, have cost a lot of money and blood, but they are still regarded in the American public as gallant missions that would have been successful if the cause had not been betrayed by defamationist politicians.

Fear of loss of potency: This is fed by a fear of declining fertility, especially within the dominant ethnic group, declining birth rates contribute to a sense that their overall position in society is crumbling. This provides a platform for theories like the” Great Replacement,” which will lead to further racial bigotry and violence among ethnic minorities and migrant communities.

The decline in birth rates among men belonging to the dominant ethnic groupaggravates misogyny based on a zero-sum, scarcity-based belief that women are infantilizing and castrating them by asserting their rights. This sometimes results in a violent backlash against women’s rights.

Global warming causes energy, environmental, and technological crises: It is believed that the current living arrangement is unsustainable or that the crisis is a hoax meant to persuade people to accept a lower standard of living. Nuclear weapons still sputter, but worries now grow about the use of high-tech warfare and surveillance against people.

The increasing role of sophisticated, computer-based systems in nearly every aspect of daily life creates a deepening fear that many long-time occupations will be eliminated or downgraded, damaging millions of workers ‘ confidence in both their livelihood and sense of personal worth.

Growth of corporate and financial power: People become more alienated from the capitalist system as business shifts and union power declines. On the right, people are encouraged to blame repressive groups ( the Jews, the Chinese, and the Arabs ) for using economic force against them and covertly supporting their “replacement” by immigrants.

Inclusionary movements lose their capacity for movement-building: Social movements built on goodwill, while in the ascendancy, come to rely on the state to address challenges related to inclusion, through policies and programs that address socioeconomic inequality and marginalization.

The state is currently on a starvation diet, so the leaders of these movements no longer have the means to pursue their inclusionary objectives, and their policies and programs turn out to be inconvenient. The leadership is unable to deliver results for their loyal base.

Focused, in an electoral democracy, on winning elections, the leadership seek a new formula and new backing that will enable them to remain in power.

They acknowledge that challenging its interests and ambitions is futile and that it is impossible to change its focus to creating technocratic,” third-way” policies like welfare reform and less forceful alternatives to closing the border. These fail to resurrect the movement’s core, instead opening up space for excluded movements to gain more popular support.

Over time, the leadership of the exclusionary movement are emboldened to claim the accomplishments of the inclusionary movement as their own, seizing control of the historical-cultural narrative.

Instead of being the outcome of decades of struggle against violent opposition from exclusionary movements, the end of legal segregation, the vast expansion of the middle class, and the end of slavery are depicted in this telling.

The inclusionary movement is demonized for failing to celebrate America when it refuses to accept this version of the story. (” The American people rejected European monarchy and colonialism just as we rejected slavery, second-class citizenship for women… and ( today ) wokeism”, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025″ Mandate for Leadership” declared. These characterizations of patriotic self-assurance” to the left, just so many indicators of our moral depravity and intellectual inferiority” ( p. 2 ).

Exploiting alienation

The scarcity mind informs both the framing of the nine developments just described and the response to them.

Some are quite real, including fear of the other, fear of austerity, fear of migration and insurgencies, the climate crisis, and fear of the rise of corporate power, and fear of the abstinence of the other. They collectively create a strong sense of alienation.

As alienation increases, people grow more desperate to be seen and heard, to belong, and to feel that the powers directing society are on their side—and not someone else’s. These impulses lead to brand-new, exclusionary social movements that foster a zeitgeist that fosters toxic polarization and malignant bonding, which can be then used to forge a new political thinking of the right.

Alienation gives malignant bonding a strong, life-like pull, at least while the facilitation’s constraints are met. In our time, Roberts’s” second American Revolution” takes its place within a pattern of self-renewal that began with the 1968″ silent majority” election of Richard Nixon in a campaign built on coded racism ( “law and order” ) and extends to the 2016 and 2020 elections that brought Donald Trump to power and then solidified his right-wing populist MAGA movement.

Starving the state helps to perpetuate this cycle because it delegitimizes the inclusionary agenda. However, a social movement needs resources and a means of communication with the institutional and financial apparatus of capitalism and the state in order to gain power.

For this, it needs the support of at least a portion of what we might call the Third Force: the elites, including propertied individuals who amass capital and control access to it and the institutions that defend and promote their interests.

The Third Force typically finds it easier to form alliances with exclusionary movements rather than inclusionary ones because they often find their organizing principle in imagined scarcity and dreams of a lost golden age. As a result, they rarely raise objections to current wealth arrangements.

Additionally, exclusionary movements fetise power, making them effective partners in capturing marginal social elements. At the same time, often chaotic exclusionary social movements need the organized, disciplined institutional structures and expertise that the Third Force can build for them:

  • Think tanks ( such as the Heritage Foundation ) that can convert ideological resentments into policies
  • Media and messaging platforms ( like Fox News, Newsmax, and social media influencers, for example ),
  • Advocacy groups ( for example, the Federalist Society ), and
  • An electoral machinery and ability to mobilize a group of well-to-do donors ( for example, the Republican Party, political action committees, etc. ) behind a populist leader.

These resources, in turn, help exclusionary movements and their leaders create new elites that operate on a slightly different set of preconceived notions than the previous elites but still want to establish a new status quo. The nature of this new set of arrangements always depends greatly on the movement’s relationship with the Third Force.

The success of this cycle of self-renewal prevents progressive political forces from putting forward changes that might address the real issues that cause alienation: the rise of corporate hegemony, the loss of workers ‘ power, and technological concerns.

A Way Forward for Inclusive Movements?

When combined with the resources of the Third Force, an exclusionary movement based on alienation and malignant bonding has the potential to fundamentally alter society’s course, potentially reversing decades of social and economic progress.

As we’ve just seen, it can also alter the rival inclusionary movement’s course of action, neutralizing it while making it a target for the anti-exclusionary movement’s supporters to rally against.

Even in the long periods when inclusionary movements have been ascendant, their rivals work to undermine them. When it appeared that numerous inclusionary objectives, including universal health care for people of color and socioeconomic equality, were within reach in the US in the 1960s and early 1970s, the seeds of a strong opposition to these objectives were already beginning to emerge.

However, inclusionary leaders frequently disregarded or ignored them. Real or perceived crises were then exploited, often very successfully, by exclusionary social movements as grounds for pinning the blame on their opponents.

Because attacks on vulnerable groups, including gender nonconformists, racial and ethnic minorities, migrant women, and gender nonconformists, are easily rationalized and emotionally satisfying to troubled working people who are used to occupy a more favored position in society.

Another equally significant reason is that inclusive social movements frequently respond by highlighting the gap between society’s objectives and its achievements rather than highlighting its actual successes as justification for believing it can do better. This approach easily devolves into blaming and shaming the exclusionary movement’s target audience, which that movement can then easily exploit.

What does this tell us about the conditions for making them successful in the long run, and what does it mean for them despite generating large amounts of support for them for a long period of time?

Why have the inclusionary movements not been able to maintain and grow as effectively as their exclusionary rivals? What holds them back, and how can they find the capacity to do so?

The New World Foundation’s president is Colin Greer. He was formerly a professor at the City University of New York, a founding editor of Social Policy magazine, a contributing editor for Parade magazine for almost 20 years, and the author and co-author of several books on public policy. He is the author of three books of poetry, including Defeat/No Surrender ( 2023 ).

Eric Laursen is a self-taught journalist, historian, and activist. He is the author of Polymath, The Operating System, and The People’s Pension. His work has appeared in a wide variety of publications, including In These Times, the Nation, and the Arkansas Review. He resides in Massachusetts ‘ Buckland.

Human Bridges contributed to this article, which is republished here with permission from the Independent Media Institute.

Continue Reading

Yagi: More than 150 dead in Vietnam as typhoon floods Hanoi

The death toll of Typhoon Yagi has risen to 152 in Vietnam, according to federal projections, as one of the country’s largest river reaches its highest level in two years, flooding the streets of Hanoi.

By Wednesday, overflow waters from the inflamed Red River had reached a metre high in some of the money, making it difficult for some citizens to use boats to manage their neighborhoods.

Thousands of people have evacuated from low-lying areas of the city and 10 of Hanoi’s 30 operational regions are on “flood alert”, position media reported.

The government claimed that the typhoon’s main cause of death was mudslides and floods throughout north Vietnam, according to the government.

According to Hanoi native Tran Le Quyen,” this is the worst storm I have witnessed.” ” It was clean yesterday night. Then the whole city is flooded. We could n’t sleep last night”.

Yagi, which was immediately categorized as a very tornado, or storms, but afterwards downgraded to a tropical despair, has continued to wreak havoc in Vietnam since making ashore on Saturday.

It has been referred to as Asia’s most powerful storms this time.

” My house is now part of the river”, Nguyen Van Hung, who lives in a village on the lenders of the Red River, told Reuters.

Due to flash floods, a village in northeastern Lao Cai territory was completely destroyed on Tuesday. At least 25 individuals have been confirmed dying, and hundreds of soldiers have been stationed in the community to search for those still missing.

Authorities are also paying close attention to a electricity grow in the northwest of Yen Bai state because a large flows of water into the dam’s reservoir raises concerns that it might collapse.

Nguyen Hoang Hiep, the deputy secretary for crops and rural development, stated on Wednesday that the electricity plant is” safe,” but he urged locals to stay in sanctuary because it might take up to two weeks for the water to fade to an “allowable level.”

Yagi has left a trail of destruction in the country’s northern region over the past four days. On Monday, it collapsed a busy bridge, plunging ten cars and two scooters into the Red River.

It even tore roof from buildings, damaged trees, and left widespread damage to facilities and businesses in the northwest.

When hitting Vietnam, the typhoon left 24 people dying across southwestern China and the Philippines.

Typhoons does increase wind speeds and increase rainfall as the planet warms, according to scientists, but the impact of climate change on specific storms is unclear.

More reporting by BBC Asian

Continue Reading

Carsome announces most successful quarter with over US0mil revenue in 2Q2024, new financing line from Maybank

  • Revenue grew 9 % QoQ &nbsp, with over 3x EBITDA jump, GPU up by over 5 %
  • Push secondary business, particularly Carsome Capital with&nbsp, working funds ranges from banks

Carsome has just added a new working capital facility from Maybank to add to the RM100 million facility it got from AmBank in July. While it has not disclosed the amount yet, it is believed to be more than RM100 million.

The most profitable quarter to date for CARSOME Group Inc., the largest included car e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia, announced another significant step in the direction of its much-anticipated future IPO.

According to the company, in 2Q2024, it maintained a leadership position with about 35, 000 vehicles traded ( includes cars sold through Carsome&nbsp, via retail and B2B&nbsp, and CarTimes in Singapore ) and claimed it grew revenue by 9 % quarter-on-quarter ( QoQ ) to above US$ 310 million ( RM1.3 billion ). The EBITDA increased over 3x Ruler, and the gross margin increased by over 10 %. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, this continues the profitable development speed that Carsome first demonstrated in December 2023.

In line with the strong results, Carsome announced various new financing partnerships, such as with Ambank Group ( announced in July ) and Maybank ( not officially announced yet ), which will provide over US$ 46.17 million ( RM200 million ) in new working capital lines to support Carsome’s expansion plans. Carsome intends to utilize its market-leading level to promote its financing, plan, aftersales, and another auxiliary offerings to provide its dealers and customers with a complete one-stop option.

Carsome announces most successful quarter with over US$310mil revenue in 2Q2024, new financing line from MaybankEric Cheng ( pic ), Carsome’s co-founder, chairman and Group CEO, said,” This quarter’s results are a continuation of our profitable growth strategy. Our GPU ( Gross Profit per Unit ) is up by more than 5 % QoQ, even as customer acquisition costs continue to come down significantly, which is a testament to our strong execution, our value proposition, and our brand equity. We will remain on the right track to record-setting time. He cited the benefits of Carsome Capital’s support for expanding its secondary products, particularly Carsome Capital.

With NPL below 2 % for retail and 0.1 % for wholesale ( referring to B2B), we have established a strong operational track record. We are well positioned to utilize our magnitude to develop this business more thanks to the extra funding support and our demonstrated capabilities. This will keep Carsome top-of-mind as we better serve both current and new customers throughout the duration of their car ownership trip.

Continue Reading