Trump has few good options to stop Iran from getting the bomb – Asia Times

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The management of novel US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering different options to stop Iran from being able to develop a nuclear weapon.

These include renegotiating a second atomic package, pursuing a policy of “maximum force ” against Tehran by ramping up sanctions and conducting strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

These discussions follow a report released in November 2024 by the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA ), which found Iran was dangerously close to enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.

The statement also said that Iran was planning to fit more than 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich more uranium. There are, nevertheless, problems associated with each of the three options available to Trump.

1. Renegotiating the radioactive offer

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA ), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, was negotiated under the administration of Barack Obama in 2015. Signed by Iran and several world powers, the offer placed limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.

Iran was required to minimize its uranium stash by 98 % and maintain its levels of uranium enrichment at 3. 67 %. This is substantially below the amount needed to create a weapon.

However, Trump withdrew from the Iran deal during his first term as president, saying it was “horrible ” and “one-sided. ” He argued it lacked identification steps and did much to suppress Iran’s support for extremist groups. He also remarked that it failed to address the regime’s growth of nuclear weapons capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

There is help for a renegotiated deal within several policy lines in Washington. But there has been a sharp increase in anti-American attitude in Iran over recent decades, which has reduced the likelihood of Tehran returning to the negotiating table.

Opinion surveys released after Trump’s departure from the Iran deal in 2018 showed that 70 % of Iranians thought Tehran does not make any more concessions to the US for a potential nuclear deal.

The death of Iranian military chief General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 has more eroded Trump’s picture in Tehran. Soleimani, who the Pentagon said was “responsible for the deaths of thousands of American and coalition company members”, was killed by an American drone attack near Baghdad International Airport in Iraq.

This anti-American attitude has been exacerbated through blazing remarks from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He vowed “severe revenge ” on those responsible for Soleimani’s death and pronounced the US as “criminals. ” In the past, Khamenei has even labeled Trump’s behaviour as “ugly and nasty. ”

2. Ramping up punishment

Iran has a deep-rooted historic dislike to Western and, more particularly, American identity. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has cemented a foreign legislation view of viewing the “American-led imperial order ” in terms of “global pride. ”

This concept has been reflected by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, which controls Iran’s nuclear programme. In a social media post in 2020, it said Iranian nuclear experts were “ready to experience the force and unilateralism of the US federal relating to the use of atomic energy. ”

Trump’s plan of highest pressure on Iran during his first term only strengthened Tehran’s thinking on American hegemony. Various Iranian officials condemned the US-led sanctions as “economic terrorism ” and criticized Washington ’s “thirst for war. ”

The Iranian government has also frequently used the punishment to attract public assistance for its authority. In April 2024, Khamenei urged the Persian people to view sanctions as an attempt to force Iran to cooperate with “colonizing, imperial plans ” and submit to “tyrannical needs. ”

There are some indications that this communications has worked. In a 2024 survey of 2,280 Iranian citizens, more than 69 % of respondents expressed support for Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Imposing additional sanctions is likely to strengthen Iran’s antagonism to the US, complicating efforts to revise a nuclear deal.

The plan will probably be undeterred by the returning of Trump’s maximum-pressure strategy, even if it leads to new restrictions from other countries. Iran’s nuclear programme has demonstrated extraordinary endurance over the years.

Tehran now has more than five kilograms of improved uranium at its disposal. And the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, estimated in July 2024 that Iran is now capable of producing “one bomb’s fair of fissile material ” in “about 12 weeks. ”

3. Dramatic Persian services

The last option being considered by Trump’s group is proactive strikes on Iranian nuclear services. This option may reflect a departure from the historic US scheme of containing Tehran through financial coercion. It would also likely result in a major escalation of conflicts between the two countries.

To understand the risks associated with US defense activity in Iran, consider the events of the past several decades. In October 2024, Israel carried out a series of attacks on Iran in retribution for a storm of Egyptian attacks on its place. This involved a hit on a nuclear arms research center near Tehran known as Taleghan 2.

The Egyptian rulers were quick to respond with some aggressive political claims. Ayatollah Khamenei vowed “a tooth-breaking response ” against Israel and its ally, the US. His assistant, Kamal Kharrazi, stated that “if an philosophical risk arises, Iran may modify its nuclear theory. ” Khamenei issued a fatwa, or spiritual judgement, against the use of nuclear weapons in 2003.

US strikes on Iranian earth are definitely not out of the problem. In October 2024, Trump expressed aid for Jewish retaliation against Iran. He urged Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear system first and “worry about the rest later. ” Scares like these simply encourage Iran to tear from its spiritual order of no producing and using nuclear arms.

More than debating hardline policies to prevent Iran’s nuclear programme, America’s approach should be to watch and wait. This would be important in assessing whether Iran, whose business has been crippled by sanctions, leans towards China and Russia for business or comes up to the negotiating table for a minute nuclear deal.

Aniruddha Saha is young research fellow in Politicians, University of Oxford

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Cohesity appoints Lim Hsin Yin as vice president of Sales for Asean

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  • Over 30 years of practice in the technology industry
  • Originally the managing director for Singapore at SAS

Cohesity appoints Lim Hsin Yin as vice president of Sales for Asean

Cohesity, a leader in AI-powered data security, has announced the appointment of Lim Hsin Yin ( pic ) as vice president of Sales for the Asean region. In this position, Lim may oversee Cohesity’s business strategy, sales procedures, and development initiatives across the area.

An economy veteran with over 30 years of experience in the software industry, Lim joins Cohesity from SAS, where she was managing director for Singapore. At SAS, she led the organisation’s company transition plan and drove significant market share growth through strategic alliances and increased deployment of AI and predictive analytics solutions.

Due to SAS, Lim spent 11 years at Dell EMC, starting as financial services chairman in Singapore before taking on local authority roles in mid-market income across Asean and Korea, and sky and data backup for Singapore and Malaysia. Under her leadership, sales and channel teams consistently surpassed revenue targets year after year. Earlier in her career, Lim served as managing director for Avaya in Singapore and held senior roles at IBM in software and financial services.

“Success in cybersecurity requires organisations to enhance their cyber resilience as cyber criminals increasingly exploit modern tools to amplify the scale and speed of their attacks. While modern technologies like AI enable efficiency and innovation, they also demand constant vigilance to meet data security and regulatory requirements, ” Lim said.

“ In today’s evolving threat landscape, it is crucial for organisations to prioritise cybersecurity and cyber resilience in their digital transformation efforts to ensure data is always secure and accessible. I look forward to leading the ASEAN team in strengthening our customers ’ cyber resilience and data management capabilities, empowering them to unlock the full potential of AI and achieve their business goals, ” she added.

Mark Nutt, senior vice president, Sales, International Region, Cohesity, commented: “This is an exciting time for Cohesity as we deliver industry-leading cyber resilience solutions for data security with cutting-edge AI capabilities. I’m delighted to welcome Lim to lead our Asean sales team and build on the strong growth we’ve experienced across individual markets in recent years.

“ I look forward to her joining the International Leadership team and contributing her extensive experience in driving market share growth across cloud infrastructure, AI, data analytics, and enterprise software at SAS and Dell EMC. Her proven ability to foster trust and lead high-performance, diverse teams aligns perfectly with Cohesity’s values. Our customers, partners, and employees will undoubtedly benefit from her expertise and personal approach, ” he added.

In her free time, Lim champions social causes and mentoring initiatives. She serves as Chairwoman of the SGTech AI Skills and Training Committee and participates in industry councils.

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Friend or foe? Trump’s threats against ‘free-riding’ allies could backfire – Asia Times

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Donald Trump is an unexpected United States president in that he may be the second to reach greater anxiety in friends than in enemies.

Take the replies to his pre-inauguration remarks about buying Greenland, for example, which placed US alliance Denmark at the center of the international foreign legislation radar screen and caused the Swedish government – which retains control of the territory’s foreign and security policies — to proclaim Greenland is n’t for sale.

Canada is also in Trump’s sights with trade tariff threats and claims it should be the 51st US state. Its government has vociferously opposed Trump’s comments, begun back-channel lobbying in Washington and prepared for trade retaliation.

Both cases highlight the coming challenges for management of the global US alliance network in an era of increased great power rivalry– not least for NATO, of which Denmark and Canada are member states.

Members of that network saw off the Soviet Union’s formidable Cold War challenge and are now crucial to addressing China ’s complex challenge to contemporary international order. They might be excused for asking themselves the question: with allies like this, who needs adversaries?

Oversimplifying complex relationships

Trump’s longstanding critique is that allies have taken advantage of the US by under-spending on defense and “free-riding ” on the security provided by Washington ’s global network.

In an intuitive sense, it is hard to deny this. To varying degrees, all states in the international system– including US allies, partners and even adversaries – are free-riding on the benefits of the global international order the US constructed after the Cold War.

But is Trump, therefore, justified in seeking a greater return on past US investment?

Since alliance commitments involve a complex mix of interests, perception, domestic politics and bargaining, Trump would n’t be the deal-maker he says he is if he did n’t seek a redistribution of the alliance burden.

The general problem with his recent foreign policy rhetoric, however, is that a grain of truth is not a stable basis for a sweeping change in US foreign policy.

Specifically, Trump’s “free-riding ” claims are an oversimplification of a complex reality. And there are potentially substantial political and strategic costs associated with the US using coercive diplomacy against what Trump calls “delinquent ” alliance partners.

US tanks in a parade with US flag flying
US military on parade in Warsaw in 2022: force projection is about more than money. Image: Getty Images via The Conversation

Free riding or burden sharing?

The inconvenient truth for Trump is that “free-riding ” by allies is hard to differentiate from standard alliance “burden sharing, ” where the US is in a  quid pro quo  relationship: it subsidizes its allies ’ security in exchange for benefits they provide the US.

And whatever concept we use to characterise US alliance policy, it was developed in a deliberate and methodical manner over decades.

US subsidization of its allies ’ security is a longstanding choice underpinned by a strategic logic: it gives Washington power projection against adversaries and leverage in relations with its allies.

To the degree there may have been free-riding aspects in the foreign policies of US allies, this pales next to their overall contribution to US foreign policy.

Allies were an essential part in the US victory in its Cold War competition with the Soviet-led communist bloc and are integral in the current era of strategic competition with China.

Overblown claims of free-riding overlook the fact that when US interests differ from its allies, it has either vetoed their actions or acted decisively itself, with the expectation reluctant allies will eventually follow.

During the Cold War, the US maintained a de facto veto over which allies could acquire nuclear weapons ( the UK and France ) and which ones could not ( Germany, Taiwan, South Korea ).

In 1972, the US established a close relationship with China to contain the Soviet Union– despite protestations from Taiwan, and the security concerns of Japan and South Korea.

In the 1980s, Washington proceeded with the deployment of US missiles on the soil of some very reluctant NATO states and their even more reluctant populations. The same pattern has occurred in the post-Cold War era, with key allies backing the US in its interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The problems with coercion

Trump’s recent comments on Greenland and Canada suggest he will take an even more assertive approach toward allies than during his first term. But the line between a reasonable US policy response and a coercive one is hard to draw.

It is not just that US policymakers have the challenging task of determining that line. In pursuing such a policy, the US also risks eroding the hard-earned credit it earned from decades of investment in its alliance network.

There’s also the obvious point that it takes two to tango in an alliance relationship. US allies are not mere pawns in Trump’s strategic chessboard. Allies have agency.

They will have been strategizing how to deal with Trump since before the presidential campaign in 2024. Their options range from withholding cooperation to various forms of defection from an alliance relationship.

Are the benefits associated with a disruption of established alliances worth the cost? It is hard to see how they might be. In which case, it is an experiment the Trump administration might be well advised to avoid.

Nicholas Khoo is associate professor of international politics and principal research fellow, Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs ( Christchurch ), University of Otago

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Marriage equality kicks off

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Gay couples to register worldwide

PUBLISHED: 21 Jan 2025 at 06 :00

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and cabinet ministers take a photo with same-sex couples on the lawn of Government House on Jan 15 to mark the historic marriage equality law. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and government officials take a picture with same-sex couples on the garden of Government House on Jan 15 to indicate the traditional wedding fairness laws. ( Photo: Chanat Katanyu )

Thai embassies and consulates abroad are geared up for same-sex wedding licenses starting on Thursday after the Marriage Equality Act comes into influence on Wednesday.

Same-sex people may register their relationship at any neighborhood workplace across Thailand and at Thai embassies and consulates worldwide from Thursday.

Deputy state official Karom Ponpornklang said on Monday that the Department of Provincial Administration is ready to help licenses under the union fairness laws in 878 regions globally on Thursday.

The ministry, which serves as the main registration, has also worked with Bangkok’s 50 district offices and 94 embassies and consulates abroad to maintain registrations go easily, Mr Karom said.

The ministry has furthermore drawn up an Interior Ministry rules regarding family licenses to help LGBTQ organizations.

Marriage and divorce techniques have also been improved, and more marriage and divorce credentials have been published to join an expected rise in demand after the bill becomes law, he said.

Personnel have also been trained to assure they are equipped with essential information about the new laws and proper etiquette when providing services for same-sex couples, Mr Karom said, adding that activities will also be held global on Thursday to indicate Wednesday’s passage of the marriage equality law.

” The government, the Interior Ministry and the Department of Provincial Administration are ready to facilitate registrations of LGBTQ couples to promote gender equality and diversity. This will also boost Thailand’s image in the international community,” he said.

In a video clip posted by the opposition People’s Party ( PP ), Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the party leader, welcomed the new law, saying pushing for the passage of the law was one of the priorities of the now-dissolved Move Forward Party, which was reborn as the PP.

He also said the PP will continue to monitor any problems that may arise after the enactment of the law and will find ways to address such problems.

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration ( BMA ) will also organise an event called” Marriage Equality Day” and a mass marriage registration at Paragon Hall in Siam Paragon from 8. 30am to 16. 30pm on Thursday.

Couples who plan to register their marriage at Siam Paragon or in the 50 districts in Bangkok on Thursday are encouraged to fill out an online form prior to the day via the link https ://shorturl. at/lotny.

They will need to bring their ID cards or equivalent documents issued by a government agency and their household registration documents.

As for foreigners, they have to show their passports and single status certificates from their home country or issued by their embassy in Thailand.

The Marriage Equality Act was endorsed by His Majesty the King and published in the Royal Gazette on Sept 24, making Thailand the third country or territory in Asia, after Taiwan and Nepal, to recognise same-sex marriage.

The new law will allow any two individuals who are 18 years old or older to register their marriage and receive the same benefits and rights as heterosexual couples. But parents ‘ and/or guardians ‘ consent will still be required if the applicants are younger than 20.

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CMIO model should be constantly reviewed as multiculturalism becomes more complex: Edwin Tong

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PANEL Conversations The conference also featured panel discussions, including one with National University of Singapore ( NUS) associate professor of sociology Daniel Goh, Permanent Secretary for information and development at the Ministry of Digital Development and Information Chng Kai Fong, and Lepak Conversations founder Yulianna Frederika. They discussed how societyContinue Reading