Could war in Gaza ignite direct US-Iran confrontation?  - Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Increasingly, there have been signs of Israel’s current military operations expanding violence beyond Gaza. Such prognoses became compelling after last week’s military strikes by the US and its allies on more than 60 locations under Houthi command and launch centers across Yemen, followed by Iranian strikes on Iraq, Syria and Pakistan.

The US has since re-designated the Houthis as global terrorists. This drift away from the hyperactive US shuttle diplomacy to contain this conflict has dangerous implications beyond this energy-rich but volatile region.

The US no longer has to worry only about the Houthis’ missile strikes on merchant vessels in the Red Sea that connects the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, accounting for 15% of global shipping and one-third of global container trade. 

What the West calls Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” – which includes the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and similar groups in Syria and Iraq – have been carrying out attacks on Israel and its allies to express solidarity with Palestine. The Houthis have been attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea since November to pressure Israel to allow the free flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza and for an early end of hostilities.

Of course, the Houthis’ promise to attack only Israel-linked shipping has not been possible, as it is never easy to identify a merchant ship with one nation even when it is legally identified by the flag of that country.

This crisis has caused severe disruptions, with shipping companies’ re-routing resulting in delays, uncertainties and fee increases. But what the United States has to worry about now is Iran’s direct military strikes, which have raised the specter of a possible direct US-Iran confrontation long in the making. At the least this new phantom threatens to derail diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict within Gaza.

Specter of military strikes

Weary of continued Houthi strikes in the Red Sea, several nations, including India, have taken measures to provide escorts, intelligence and rescues for merchant shipping in this theater. In December the United States constituted a nine-nation task force named Operation Prosperity Guardian. This has enormously increased the presence of warships in these waters, and yet the problems have not subsided.

Now, last week’s barrage of retaliation from the US and its allies has been followed by Iranian inland military strikes, first on Iraq and Syria and then inside Pakistan.

It appears that after bomb explosions in Kerman in southern Iran this month, Tehran is no longer relying only on its so-called proxies alone. President Ebrahim Raisi’s political deputy Mohammad Jamshaidi was quick to blame Israel and the US for the Kerman bombings, though Islamic State (ISIS) soon claimed responsibility for the attacks, which killed more than 100 people.

But can the United States, in the midst of a presidential election season and in the face of wars in Ukraine and Israel, afford a direct confrontation with Tehran and its allies? Especially so, when the Israeli war in Gaza has killed more than 24,000 Palestinians, galvanizing intransigence if not open pan-Arab support for Palestine? 

Not that the US has discarded diplomacy as its first choice, yet these expanding military strikes surely betray fatigue among its partners, thus complicating its diplomacy.

The US-led nine-nation Operation Prosperity Guardian, for example, has not been joined by several of its close Indo-Pacific allies. These include Australia, Japan and several of its Arab allies, including Saudi Arabia, which has been fighting the Houthis for decades.

The world’s largest trading nation, China, has not joined it either. Meanwhile, Iran launching direct strikes does not mean that Hezbollah and the Houthis have stopped shooting missiles, incrementally intensifying regional tensions. If anything, they remain keen on spreading it wider as well.

Expanding confrontation 

The Houthis, for example, have now taken it all the way from Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.  Also, more than Israel, last week’s US-led attacks were followed by the Houthis this week launching fresh attacks on US commercial vessels as well.

Together, these military attacks have reportedly impacted more than 50 countries’ shipping, disrupting global supply chains and igniting doomsday speculations.

Iran’s direct military strikes have triggered scenarios of a wider confrontation involving other nations. This Monday saw Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launch ballistic missiles at what it calls Israeli “spy headquarters” in Iraq’s Kurdish region and hit targets linked to ISIS in northern Syria.

Tuesday saw the IRGC using drones and missiles to hit at Salafi-Sunni insurgents of Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) inside Pakistan, thereby involving a nuclear-armed state of South Asia.

The Pakistan Navy has also deployed its warships in the Arabian Sea, and last Sunday claimed to have rescued 21 crew members from a merchant vessel after a hijacking distress call.

Pakistan, which has been a close ally of the United States but also a close friend of China and Iran and a major stakeholder in the Middle East, has so far steered clear of the Gaza conflict, focusing on its own merchant ships and even clarifying that its naval deployments are not meant to counter the Houthis. 

But Iranian strikes in Balochistan have pulled Pakistan into this expanding confrontation.  A Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman responded by saying, “This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences.”

It has forbidden the Iranian ambassador, on a visit to Tehran, to return to Islamabad. On Thursday, after the Iranian attacks in Balochistan, an IRGC colonel was shot dead in Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan region, with no clarity on who was behind the murder.

In December a senior IRGC adviser was killed by Israeli air strikes outside Damascus. Tensions could deepen further.

Iran-Pakistan tensions 

Jaish al-Adl, with sanctuaries in Pakistan, has been launching attacks against Iranian border guards since it was set up in 2012 and has previously claimed bombings and kidnappings of Iranian border police.

The leader of this Salafi-Sunni movement in southeastern Iran, Salahudin Farooqui, has been a vocal opponent of Iran’s support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. They are also known for being closely linked to the Kurdish freedom movement, which could potentially bring in Turkey as well.

On Tuesday, Iran’s IRGC launched an assault on two of Jaish al-Adl’s military bases inside Pakistan’s Balochistan province. This involved the use of missiles and drones targeting the two bases but also killed two innocent children and injuring three other girls. However, both the US and China – closest of friends of Pakistan – have advised restraint and dialogue.

Given Pakistan’s current politico-economic situation and its track record of non-action against India’s air strikes on Balakot in 2019 or the American operation against Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad in 2011, Islamabad is not expected to retaliate against Iran. Pakistan has troubles on its borders with Afghanistan and India as well.

Plus, as two Islamic republics, Iran and Pakistan have had an enduring history of working together on their shared challenge from these insurgencies on both sides of their 1,000-kilometer-long border.

Iran was the first country on August 14, 1947, to recognize the Pakistani state. Both have continued to make efforts to fight insurgencies and the drug trade jointly on their shared border regions.

Diplomacy on crutches 

So as war and diplomacy in West Asia race against each other, diplomacy surely seems to be in need of crutches if not yet on a ventilator. As the United States overstretches itself to address challenges at home and abroad, it needs to balance its military and diplomatic strategies to contain the war in Gaza.

On the positive side, it seems close to an early interim cessation of hostilities at least between Israel and Hezbollah by offering an economic aid package for Lebanon. But the Houthi violence now being joined by Iran’s adds to America’s troubles, though both the US and Iran can ill afford a direct confrontation.

Continue Reading

Why Ukraine's cock-a-hoop on downing two Russian aircraft - Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

In recent days, the Ukrainian military claims to have destroyed or irretrievably damaged two Russian aircraft over the contested ground of Zaporizhzhia oblast.

The role of these aircraft is to provide the Russian military – particularly its ground force – with certain capabilities. These include the ability to coordinate air and ground forces, observe and track targets of opportunities and provide real-time aerial intelligence.

Russia’s ability to perform these functions has now been significantly degraded. While the loss of individual aircraft will not have a decisive effect on Russian capabilities in the long term, it will make the application of air power and the ability to conduct operations on the ground, both offensive and defensive, more difficult in the short term.

The good news for Russia’s military is that it is winter, so things are fairly static on the ground at the moment because of the harsh weather. But this may be outweighed by other considerations. Most importantly, Russia is understood to have a limited stock of these aircraft types – and the Russian industrial base has a limited capacity to replace them.

Expensive and hard to replace

The Beriev A-50 is an airborne early-warning and control aircraft that first entered service in 1985. Its primary function is to track up to 300 targets simultaneously within a range of 180 miles using its onboard radar systems. These can be on land, or at sea or in the air.

Despite being in service for almost 40 years, the A-50’s age would not be a major concern for the Russian Air Force. The roles that this aircraft plays do not require it to have the latest cutting-edge technology in terms of speed or range, particularly given the areas in which it is operating.

The one weakness that this and almost all aircraft of this type have is that in hostile airspace they are vulnerable to air and ground-based defensive fire. This is despite their defensive capabilities, such as electronic countermeasures which are supposed to protect them from guided enemy missiles.

So deployment has to be considered carefully. It appears from open-source intelligence that the A-50 has been increasingly deployed to try to counter the increased risk to Russian military infrastructure in Crimea from Ukrainian air attack.

The sheer cost of the A-50, estimated at US$330 million per aircraft, will be a blow to Russian military planners. But a bigger worry by far will be the loss of a highly specialized crew that takes many years to train. This is not a capability that can be easily and quickly replaced.

The Ilyushin Il-22, meanwhile, is an airborne command post that is used in the command and control and radio relay roles. These are two vital roles in warfare as the ability to coordinate forces in both an offensive and defensive capacity ensures that operations are conducted effectively and efficiently. This ensures that commanders are able to direct their forces in line with operational and strategic objectives.

Initial reports suggest that this aircraft was badly damaged but was able to return to a Russian air base. There have also been claims that the damage is so serious the aircraft cannot be repaired.

Friendly fire

There is no clear evidence as to how these aircraft were targeted. Apart from its initial claim to have destroyed or damaged the aircraft, Ukraine has not commented further. Russia meanwhile, has made no official comment.

A Russian milblogger has reportedly suggested the planes had been hit by friendly fire or even shot down by a team of British SAS operatives using surface-to-air missiles.

There has been speculation that the aircraft may have been brought down by friendly fire. But Ukraine and her allies believe it could have been the US-provided Patriot air defense systems. Photo: EPA-EFE / Martin Divisek

This explanation may be an attempt aim to provide the Russian Air Force with the opportunity to deny that these incidents were due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense systems, such as the Patriot ground-based system provided in December 2022 by the US.

But this, in turn, raises important questions about how well Russia has trained its forces about the recognition of friendly and hostile aircraft as well as its ability to control the airspace in which it is operating above Ukraine

If it emerges that the loss of both these aircraft was due to Ukrainian action, it will bolster the confidence of their ground forces to engage and destroy these targets. It would also provide greater evidence for senior military and political leaders for the continued supply of these weapons systems.

How the aircraft were lost is almost an irrelevance. Both nations will put out their version of events as a continuation of the propaganda war that is assuming more and more importance in 21st-century conflict, particularly with the rise of social media platforms.

The loss of the A-50 and Il-22 are significant blows to Russian military capabilities in Ukraine. This is not down to the lack of numbers that exist within the Russian inventory, or the cost and time that will be required in replacing them.

These are obviously concerns, given the huge expense of state-of-the-art aircraft. But the loss of the highly specialized crew that takes many years to train will create the largest capability gap, especially in command and control.

This will make the coordination of air and land operations near the frontlines much more complicated to plan and conduct, making them more hazardous for those who are conducting them and leading to greater confusion within the command chain.

Matthew Powell is Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of Portsmouth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading

Indonesia presidential hopefuls pledge to boost troubled anti-graft agency

By:
On:
In: Asia

JAKARTA: Indonesia’s presidential candidates have pledged to strengthen the government’s anti-corruption agency, laying out their plans ahead of the country’s Feb 14 election, to counter pervasive graft in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The candidates’ promises, made at a dialogue late on Wednesday (Jan 17), come as experts bemoan a slowdownContinue Reading

Risky Covid complacency spreading far and wide - Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The United States experienced its second-largest Covid wave of the pandemic in January 2024. For the year to December 2023, in England, Covid rates peaked at around one in 24 people. During the same month, Singapore also experienced record Covid cases and a spike in hospitalizations.

Covid, then, is still a major public health problem, accounting for 10,000 deaths in 50 countries and a 42% increase in hospitalizations during December 2023 alone. Covid may not be a global health emergency at the moment, but it is still killing and harming far too many people worldwide.

Yet, judging by the lack of media coverage and social media attention, at least compared to earlier in the pandemic, you might be forgiven for thinking that Covid is no longer a big deal. But acting as though Covid doesn’t exist or isn’t a problem is a dangerous situation.

Covid complacency, by governments, the media and the public, is a threat to the overall health of the population, to health services and particularly to those most vulnerable, including older adults and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Covid is not getting milder. Image: Hesther Ng / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images / The Conversation

Contrary to the popular misbelief, Covid is not getting milder. We have known this for a while, but new research is starting to suggest that Omicron variants might be evolving into more severe forms.

Another common misapprehension is that once we have had Covid, which most of us have by now, our immune system is all the better for it.

While infection does lead the body to produce antibodies, getting our antibodies from vaccines and boosters is a safer option, particularly in light of growing evidence that repeat Covid infections increase the risk of long Covid symptoms, hospitalization and death.

Also, high Covid rates add pressure to already strained health systems. Covid, along with flu and other respiratory viruses are playing their part in the healthcare crisis being experienced in the UK and a number of EU countries, for example – and long Covid is responsible for substantial financial burden on health services.

It’s perhaps understandable why many people are less interested in Covid these days. It’s been a long four years.

In my research with colleagues on public attitudes to Covid, we found as early as winter 2020 that people were getting fatigued by Covid news and information. But raising awareness of the ongoing risks posed by Covid remains as important as ever.

Fighting Covid complacency

First, we need to ensure vaccine uptake is as high as possible. In the UK, like many countries, booster uptake amongst those eligible this year has been significantly lower compared to last year, and fewer population groups have been offered the vaccine. In future campaigns, boosters should be offered more broadly.

But broadening vaccine access is only one part of the puzzle. For example, in the US, where new boosters are available to everyone, only two-in-ten have taken the offer up, including only four-in-ten of those aged over 65.

One of the most common reasons for not getting boosted is the misconception that once a person has been infected there is no point in getting vaccinated.

Vaccine campaigns should be accompanied by proactive, visible and clear public health messaging to inform the public that boosters can still help to reduce the risk of illness, hospitalization and defend against newer Covid variants such as JN.1, which was named by the World Health Organization (WHO) on December 19, 2023, as a “variant of interest” and may be more infectious than other variants.

Second, we can still make use of protections that work. For example, fundamental investment in better ventilation is much needed. Cleaner air is essential for public health and will have benefits that extend beyond Covid.

Good ventilation can not only reduce the spread of Covid and other respiratory viruses, but can generally help reduce indoor air pollution, and can even improve things such as school attendance and concentration in the classroom.

Older male seated on a bus, wearing a brown coat, hat and white COVID mask
Masks are still effective protection against Covid. Photo: Picture alliance via Getty Images via The Conversation / Frank Hammerschmidt

Spain, for example, has just reintroduced face mask rules in hospitals and other healthcare settings. Existing evidence suggests that masks do work to help reduce the transmission of Covid. Masks have been controversial, but can be thought of like umbrellas – we can use them as, when and where needed.

Other countries would also do well to follow WHO advice and reintroduce face mask regulation in medical settings, to reduce hospital-acquired infections, protect vulnerable patients and reduce sickness and absenteeism among healthcare workers.

We can still live with Covid and at the same time respect, and try to reduce, the harm it can cause.

Simon Nicholas Williams is Lecturer in Psychology, Swansea University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading

Nothing to suggest F1 contracts were structured to government's disadvantage; preparations for 2024 event on track: MTI

By:
On:
In: South-East Asia

This year’s edition of the Singapore night race is scheduled to take place from Sep 20 to Sep 22.  MTI said since the event’s debut in 2008, the F1 Singapore Grand Prix has brought “substantial benefits” to Singapore, attracting more than 550,000 international visitors and generating around S$2 billion ofContinue Reading

US political paralysis thwarting CHIPS Act promise - Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The battle to keep the government open may feel just like the crisis of the day. But these fights pose immediate and long-term risks for the US.

The federal government spends tens of billions of dollars every year to support fundamental scientific research that is mostly conducted at universities. For instance, the basic discoveries that made the Covid-19 vaccine possible stretch back to the early 1960s.

Such research investments contribute to the health, wealth and well-being of society, support jobs and regional economies, and are vital to the US economy and national security.

If Congress can’t reach an agreement, then a temporary government shutdown could happen on January 19, 2024. If lawmakers miss a second February 2 deadline, then automatic budget cuts will hit future research hard.

Even if lawmakers avoid a shutdown and pass a budget, America’s future competitiveness could suffer because federal research investments are on track to be billions of dollars below targets Congress set for themselves less than two years ago.

I am a sociologist who studies how research universities contribute to the public good. I’m also the executive director of the Institute for Research on Innovation and Science, a national university consortium whose members share data that help us understand, explain and work to amplify those benefits.

Our data shows how endangering basic research harms communities across the US and can limit innovative companies’ access to the skilled employees they need to succeed.

A promised investment

Less than two years ago, in August 2022, university researchers like me had reason to celebrate.

Congress had just passed the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act. The “science” part of the law promised one of the biggest federal investments in the National Science Foundation – America’s premier basic science research agency – in its 74-year history.

The CHIPS Act authorized US$81 billion for the agency, promised to double its budget by 2027 and directed it to “address societal, national, and geostrategic challenges for the benefit of all Americans” by investing in research.

But there was one very big snag. The money still has to be appropriated by Congress every year. Lawmakers haven’t been good at doing that recently. The government is again poised to shut down.

As lawmakers struggle to keep the lights on, fundamental research is likely to be a casualty of political dysfunction. The budget proposals released so far fall $5 billion to $7.5 billion short of what the CHIPS Act called for in fiscal year 2024. Deal or no deal, science is on the chopping block in Washington.

A lag or cut in federal research funding would harm US competitiveness in critical advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics. Photo: Hispanolistic / E+ via Getty Images

Research’s critical impact

That’s bad because fundamental research matters in more ways than you might expect.

Lagging research investment will hurt US leadership in critical technologies like artificial intelligence, advanced communications, clean energy and biotechnology. Less support means less new research work gets done, fewer new researchers are trained and important new discoveries are made elsewhere.

But disrupting federal research funding also directly affects people’s jobs, lives and the economy.

Businesses nationwide thrive by selling the goods and services – everything from pipettes and biological specimens to notebooks and plane tickets – that are necessary for research.

Those vendors include high-tech startups, manufacturers, contractors and even Main Street businesses like your local hardware store. They employ your neighbors and friends and contribute to the economic health of your hometown and the nation.

Nearly a third of the $10 billion in federal research funds that 26 of the universities in our consortium used in 2022 directly supported US employers, including:

  • A Detroit welding shop that sells gasses many labs use in experiments funded by the National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Department of Defense and Department of Energy.
  • A Dallas-based construction company that is building an advanced vaccine and drug development facility paid for by the Department of Health and Human Services.
  • More than a dozen Utah businesses, including surveyors, engineers and construction and trucking companies, working on a Department of Energy project to develop breakthroughs in geothermal energy.

When Congress’ problems endanger basic research, they also damage businesses like these and people you might not usually associate with academic science and engineering. Construction and manufacturing companies earn more than $2 billion each year from federally funded research done by our consortium’s members.

Jobs and innovation

Disrupting or decreasing research funding also slows the flow of STEM – science, technology, engineering and math – talent from universities to American businesses. Highly trained people are essential to corporate innovation and to US leadership in key fields, like AI, where companies depend on hiring to secure research expertise.

In 2022, federal research grants paid wages for about 122,500 people at universities that shared data with my institute. More than half of them were students or trainees. Our data shows that they go on to many types of jobs, but are particularly important for leading tech companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Intel.

Intel is in line to benefit from the CHIPS and Science Act. Credit: Intel

More comprehensive numbers don’t exist, but that same data lets me estimate that over 300,000 people who worked at US universities in 2022 were paid by federal research funds. Threats to federal research investments put academic jobs at risk.

They also hurt private sector innovation because even the most successful companies need to hire people with expert research skills. Most people learn those skills by working on university research projects, and most of those projects are federally funded.

High stakes

The last shutdown was the longest in 40 years, but even short delays in research funding have big negative effects on the scientific workforce and lead expert researchers to look outside the US for jobs. Temporary cuts to research funding hurt too because they reduce high-tech entrepreneurship and decrease the publication of new findings.

Lasting stagnation or shrinking investments would have even more pronounced effects. Over time, companies would see fewer skilled job candidates, academic and corporate researchers would produce fewer discoveries, and fewer high-tech startups would mean slower economic growth.

America would become less competitive in the age of AI. This would make one of the fears that led lawmakers to pass the CHIPS and Science Act into a reality.

Ultimately, it’s up to lawmakers to decide whether to fulfill their promise to invest more in the research that supports jobs across the economy and American innovation, competitiveness and economic growth.

Whether the current budget deal succeeds or fails, basic research is on the table and the stakes are high.

Jason Owen-Smith is Professor of Sociology, University of Michigan

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading

China hopes for new births in year of the dragon

By:
On:
In: Asia
Zodiac dragon image: Wikipedia

The good news, according to Yuan Xin, vice-president of the Population Association of China, is that the reduction in the national headcount this year will be milder due to a cultural preference for having a baby during the Year of the Dragon.

In China, some families prefer to have a baby in the Year of the Dragon as they believe this will make their children become smarter and more successful.

There is numerical evidence for this: an increase in new births in 2012, the last Year of the Dragon.

But the bad news is that, beyond taking advantage of superstition, cunning plans to combat the downward trend are lacking as China is urged by demographic experts to take immediate action to boost its birth rate.

The call comes as figures point to just-ended 2023 as the second year in which China recorded population loss. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Wednesday that the country’s population amounted to 1.409 billion at the end of last year, down 2.08 million people (the population of North Macedonia) from a year earlier.

It has been the second year that China recorded a contraction in population after the figure dropped by 850,000 (the population of Comoros) in 2022 from 2021. Last year, India surpassed China to become the world’s largest population. The number of people in India grew 0.81% to 1.429 billion last year from 2022. 

“The downward trend in China’s total population is bound to be long-term and become an inherent characteristic,” Yuan of the Population Association said Wednesday. 

He said China’s fertility rate, the average number of children born to a woman of childbearing age, is about 1.05% at present, compared with 1.3% in Japan, 1.7% in the United States and 2% in India. 

He said the pace of the decline of China’s population will remain mild in the next three decades but the absolute number of the contraction is actually quite significant. 

He said it is vital that the government takes action to address demographic problems that will surface in the future. He also warned of the negative impact of an aging population on the Chinese economy.

The number of people aged 60 or above reached 297 million, or 21.1% of the Chinese population, at the end of 2023. The number was 280 million, or 19.8% of the population, at the end of 2022.

“We expect a recovery in new births in 2024, driven by pent-up demand,” Yue Su, principal economist in China at Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), says in a research note. “This has the potential to contribute to a positive population growth trajectory once again.”

”But after a brief rebound in 2024 and potentially 2025, the number of newborns is expected to return to its previous downward trend due to a combination of fewer women of reproductive age and declining fertility rates,” she says.

She says China may not face a “baby crisis” similar to South Korea, which has a fertility rate of 0.9%, but it will be challenging for China to replicate Japan’s stable fertility rate (1.3%). 

She says Beijing should take effective policy responses, such as household focused fiscal transfers, enhancements in working conditions for female labor, and improved social welfare coverage for migrant workers.

Policy failure

The Development Research Center of the State Council said in its latest China Development Report 2023 that China’s total population is now at its peak, and it is expected to continue declining for the foreseeable future.

The report predicted that China’s population will fall slightly to about 1.4 billion in 2035 and decrease further to 1.3 billion in 2050. 

Last year, many Chinese cities unveiled their measures to encourage young families to have more children. For example, the local government in Zhengzhou, Henan province, said a family will receive a cash subsidy of 2,000 yuan, 5,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan for having one, two and three children, respectively.

But in real practice, many families said they could not receive the subsidy as the Zhengzhou government did not have a budget for this scheme. They also said they could not get the promised extra maternity leaves and other benefits.

Some commentators said young Chinese people tend to delay marriage and childbirth due to income drop and unemployment. 

The NBS said the jobless rate of people aged between 16 and 24 was 14.9% in December while that of those aged between 25 and 29 was 6.1%. Claiming to have a review of its statistical method, the bureau stopped publishing the youth unemployment figure last year, after it reached 21.3% in June.

Kang Yi, commissioner of the NBS, said the new youth jobless rate only reflected the 34 million people aged between 16 and 24 who have finished their studies while the 62 million students who are studying and searching for part-time jobs were excluded. 

Dragon vs sheep

Alas, there is even a limit to how much superstition can do to counter the overall trend.

Much as they may like giving birth during the Year of the Dragon, there is evidence that some families do not like the Year of the Sheep.

The Empress Dowager Cixi. Photo: Wikipedia

Ma Yan, a researcher at the School of Sociology and Ethnology of the University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in a paper in 2017 that some Beijing families avoided having a baby in the Year of the Sheep, citing demographic data between 1957 and 2016.

She said it might be because of an old saying of “nine out of ten sheep are unlucky.”

That was originally a political slogan against Cixi (1835-1908), empress of the Qing dynasty, who was born in the Year of the Sheep. 

Netizens said the Taiping Rebellion tried to use this slogan to gather some crowds to overthrow the Qing government in the 19th century.

The next Year of the Sheep will be 2027. 

Read: Youths’ desperate ‘four no’ attitude worries China

Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3

Continue Reading

Can the Pacific Islands remain 'friends to all'? - Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Most Pacific Island countries claim the foreign policy of “friends to all and enemies to none” amid the mounting geopolitical disputes between the United States and China. But what does this foreign policy mean?

This policy seeks to identify short- and long-term national interests on an ad hoc basis with bilateral partners, including superpowers the United States and China. Many developing states profess this foreign policy to ensure they remain neutral during this period of intense rivalry.

Among the key issues discussed by Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders including Australia and New Zealand during their recent 52nd meeting in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, was great-power competition, with the region increasingly being used as a geopolitical playground for hard power projection.

On geopolitics, the host of the PIF meeting, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, stated that the Pacific region was seen as the focus of “heightened geo-strategic interest.”

Nevertheless, he said, the region would not shift attention away from the key issue of climate change, especially when dealing with the PIF’s 21 dialogue partners, which include the United States and China.

China has its footprint in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure program largely funded by China’s Exim Bank in the form of loans to countries in the Pacific and developing countries in other regions of the world. However, recent studies indicate that the populations of a few countries in the Pacific already disapprove of the BRI because of debt risks.

China’s official development finances in the Pacific region have decreased significantly since 2016, according to the 2023 Pacific Aid Map launched by the Lowy Institute, but China maintains support in a few places, such as Solomon Islands and Kiribati. In 2019, Solomon Islands and Kiribati shifted their diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing.

China in 2022 solidified its diplomatic relationship Solomon Islands to a more comprehensive strategic standard by signing a security pact to improve Solomon Islands’ policing. This controversial pact triggered increased PIF engagement from the United States and its traditional allies, such as Australia.

Of course, Washington has long been regarded as a “Pacific power.” Now, for the first time since the end of World War II, the United States, under President Joe Biden’s administration, has hosted PIF leaders at the White House.

At those sessions in 2022 and 2023, Washington pledged more than half a billion dollars to address climate change, among other key issues in the region. (Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manaseh Sogavare was absent during the second meeting.)

At the PIF meeting, held on November 6-10, 2023, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfied said she wanted to “listen to better understand how the US can continue to support the region’s priorities.”

US support has immensely increased in the region this year, both economically and strategically. For instance, in May 2023, the United States signed a defense cooperation agreement with Papua New Guinea, the largest country in the region. The agreement allows unlimited access by US military personnel to six of PNG’s major ports, including sea, air, and land.

And in collaboration with Australia, Washington has already announced funding for a new undersea Internet cable initiative for Pacific Island countries, largely implemented by US tech giant Google.

Such economic and strategic support to the region is to ensure “a free and open rules-based order” in the Pacific and is the aim of the Biden administration’s 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy, as the region stretching from the Indian to the Pacific Ocean is considered bedrock to global peace.

However, even with closer defense cooperation between the United States and PNG, island countries’ view of the great-power competition should still be thought of as neutral.

Furthermore, while both the United States and China are making moves to meet the Pacific region’s key development priorities, as envisaged in the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, those two countries have also aroused the concern of region’s political leaders regarding great-power competition.

Speaking at the Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ summit in Fiji in 2022, Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape stated that the foreign policy of “friends to all and enemies to none remains despite the current geopolitics in the region, where the bigger forces are at play. We have no intention of making enemies and our Pacific ways must pacify all forces and interests in our region.”

To ensure order and stability within the region and simultaneously address key emerging issues like maritime security, nuclear testing, cybersecurity and climate change will require commitment and regional cooperation from all PIF leaders. PIF states are among the world’s most aid-dependent countries and their 21 dialogue partners, including the United States and China, are seen as PIF development partners, multilaterally and bilaterally.

At the PIF summit this year, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka proposed declaring the Pacific region a “zone of peace” because of current geopolitics. Rabuka’s proposal was accepted by Forum Leaders and a declaration will be made in Tonga in 2024 at the PIF’s 53rd meeting.

It must be similar to the  Biketawa Declaration and the Boe Declaration, the two declarations that fully recognized forum members’ sovereignties and their values such as peace, harmony, security, social inclusion and prosperity underpinning the Framework for Pacific Regionalism.

Being friends to all and enemies to none under the Framework for Pacific Regionalism and the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent signifies peace, stability, and order.

As PIF states are small island developing countries, they will still need external assistance from development partners – including the United States and China – to achieve their development goals, even if great-power competition subsides.

In the meantime, while big powers have their own interests in the region, regional interest should be the key for PIF countries when engaging with their development partners, including the United States and China.

To maintain that foreign policy at the regional level necessitates solidarity from all forum members both at the present and in the future to ensure they remain neutral and to avoid any conflict within the region.

Moses Sakai ([email protected]) is a research fellow at the Papua New Guinea National Research Institute and is designated as a young leader of the Pacific Forum. He previously taught at the University of Papua New Guinea from 2018-2023.

This article was originally published by Pacific Forum and is republished with permission.

Continue Reading

Temasek-owned Accuron Technologies expands semiconductor presence with acquisition of Recif Technologies 

By:
On:
In: Technology

Solidifies growing footprint in semicon industry and presence in Europe
Positions Accuron as a versatile and innovative provider in chip industry

Accuron Technologies, a 1981 founded Temasek owned global precision engineering and technology group based in Singapore, announced its acquisition of Recif Technologies, a France-based company specialising in the design, manufacture, and installation…Continue Reading