BANGKOK – As Southeast Asian nations grapple with US President-elect Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant language and business war threats, the approaching party’s next trip will set the region’s trade-dependent nations on edge and its autocratic regimes at ease.
” In his first term, he]Trump ] did not exhibit interest in the promotion of democracy or human rights”, Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a former Thai foreign minister and trade representative, said in an interview. ” This trend is expected to continue.
” Administrations in Southeast Asia will feel less or no stress on this front,” sage Kantathi predicted.
Those officials, including in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, all seen as leaning toward China, can expect less clash from Washington in responding to their lack of good votes, free speech and other animal rights-related issues, which Democrat administrations like the cheerful Joe Biden state generally emphasize.
Provincial leaders reportedly change their political stances in response to Trump’s unpredictable behavior.
” Under his strongman administration, a personal connection with him has heightened price,” Kantathi said”. The advantage will be those who can accurately compliment Trump. Charm offensive abilities may be made more valuable.
The former leading minister added that “government officials who favor a transactional approach and dedication to work toward a deal harmony with the US will be seen in a good light.”
As businesses seek to relocate their operations from China to Southeast Asia in order to avoid Trump’s tariffs, Trump’s return to power could lead to a US-China trade war, according to analysts.
A first trade war salvo on a few Chinese goods, which Trump had previously won, spooked many businesses and prevented them from entering Southeast Asia and from China to avoid tariffs and quotas on “made-in-China” goods and services. Vietnam was one of the victims of that migration, but others might benefit from a larger exodus in the future.
If US President-elect Donald Trump follows his threat to radically increase tariffs on Chinese goods, Cambodia could be a major winner, according to a recent online article from the Phnom Penh-based Khmer Times. According to the statement,” US companies are already looking for alternative sources of goods to shift their production from China to the kingdom [Cambodia].”
Cambodia Chamber of Commerce vice president Lim Heng told the local publication,” We know all about the]trade ] war threat between China and America. Chinese companies will be more reliant on this threat to invest in Cambodia.
He predicted that” chinese businesses and regional businesses will invest in Cambodia and export to the US, Europe, and other countries.”
Cambodian exports of clothing, electrical goods, raw materials, and travel accessories could benefit from new US tariffs, which Trump has suggested will rise to 60 % for all goods made in China and 20 % elsewhere.
Still, regional countries will rue having to make the push-comes-to-shove choice of backing either the US or China if the world’s two biggest economies wage an all-out trade war.
Some people worry that Trump’s tariffs will put more of China’s excess goods in nearby Southeast Asian markets, putting more low-cost, competitive pressure on local manufacturers and businesses.
A Bangkok Post editorial warned on November 8 that the Thai government should be careful not to be perceived as having an unfavorably close relationship with China or acting as a hub for Chinese investors.
” We want to be loved by China. We want to be loved by America”, said Thailand’s Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan in September before Trump’s election win.
However, some in Asia believe that America, which is battling hostilities and wars across the globe and that needs friends and allies, is becoming increasingly desperate.
According to Wanwichit Boonprong, a lecturer in political science at Bangkok’s Rangsit University,” Southeast Asia now has more bargaining power than before and sees that the United States will re-enter the conflict in the South China Sea.” Therefore, America’s position is not as strong as before.”
Indeed, China appears to be gaining in regional influence.
” He]Trump ] should know that in recent years, Chinese capital has had a huge influence in]Southeast Asian ] countries, both legally and illegally, and many countries are happy to accept it because of their geopolitical location that is very close to China, coupled with the fact that many countries have Chinese descent, and in terms of culture or tradition it is easy to accept being Chinese,” Wanwichit said.
For instance, during the anti-communist purges and extrajudicial killings that targeted ethnic Chinese throughout the archipelagora during the old Cold War, China was Indonesia‘s adversary.
Today, Beijing has built a Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail as part of its global Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure-building program and has poured billions into the nation’s nickel industry, a key element in the global transition to electric vehicles ( EVs ).
He should be aware that several Asian nations have increasingly sought to maintain balance between China and the US as a result of the rise of China in the [Southeast Asian ] region and what appears to be Washington’s diminished interest there. This includes Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia,” Paul Chambers, a Southeast Asian security affairs specialist at Naresuan University, said in an interview.
Regional nations that believe China exerts excessive pressure on itself for power and influence may concur with Trump’s resumption of the presidency.
” Given Trump’s demonstrated anti-China policy in his first term, his return to office in 2024 points to more economic and security benefits for countries feeling bullied by China in Asia, namely Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Japan, and South Korea,” Chambers said.
” Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia are the frontline states in the eyes of the United States as a result of China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” Kasit Piromya, another former Thai foreign minister, said in an interview.
Washington and Bangkok enjoy close diplomatic, economic, and, especially, military relations – all of which are expected to continue under Trump.
” If Trump offers positive inducements to the Thai military, relations will improve,” Chambers, an expert in the Thai military, said.
Thailand, a non-NATO US treaty ally, excels at balancing its relations with China and the US delicately by looking for the advantages that each superpower offers the country.
Trump’s return to the White House coincides with the US Pentagon’s hopes to sell Lockheed Martin’s F-16 warplanes to Thailand against strong competition from Sweden’s Saab-made Gripen E/F fighter aircraft.
Eight AH-6″ Little Bird combat helicopters are currently being built by US defense contractor Boeing for the Royal Thai Army, and Thai pilots will soon be trained at Yuma Proving Ground in Mesa, Arizona.
In July, a couple of Beechcraft/Textron AT-6TH Wolverine light attack aircraft were delivered from its Providence, Rhode Island-based factory to Thailand’s air force.
Possible options include arming the Wolverines with laser-guided bombs, AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles and other weapons. A dozen patrol boats were given to the Thai Marine Police by the US a year ago.
In October, US Ambassador to Thailand Chusak Sirinil, a minister, met with the prime minister’s office to discuss how the US is ready to work with Thailand in a number of areas, including modernizing the military, battling drugs, and strengthening economic ties. Chusak said”, Thailand remains a steadfast ally of the United States.”
Countries like Cambodia could face new scrutiny for their close financial ties with Chinese companies that have profited from the nation’s real estate, natural resources, tourism, and other industries if Trump adopts a targeted hard line against Beijing and its regional allies.
US-Cambodia relations are already strained by Washington’s criticism of Phnom Penh’s slide toward authoritarianism and human rights clampdown. Cambodia has accused the US of interfering with its internal affairs and even suggested that the country attempted to start a” color revolution” to overthrow previous Prime Minister Hun Sen’s regime.
Additionally, according to Phnom Penh’s repeated denials, the US believes that Cambodia has entered a secret pact that grants China access to its Ream Naval Base along the Gulf of Thailand.
Senate President Hun Sen, who allegedly hoped to bolster ties with Trump, optimistically posted on his Facebook page:
” Before the election, Donald Trump sent a message to the American people and around the world about loving peace, war-hating, ]and ] so-called pacifism. Trump’s victory demonstrates that Americans prefer peace over a direct conflict with Israel and Ukraine.
Since 1978, Richard Ehrlich has been a foreign correspondent for the American government in Bangkok. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books”, Rituals. Killers. Wars. &, Sex. — Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka &, New York “and” Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers &, Freaks “are available
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