Baltimore port closure has minimal impact on Singapore’s car industry

SINGAPORE: There is no wait in the transfer of American vehicles or its components to Singapore, auto service providers said.

This is even as the Port of Baltimore, the busiest US interface for car shipping, remains closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

The Baltimore interface handled at least 750, 000 lorries in 2023, according to statistics from the Maryland Port Administration.

According to industry watchers, shipping companies will redirect their goods to different near ports, but nevertheless, the closure will have little to no impact on US imports to Singapore and its prices. &nbsp,

According to David Wijeratne, global development process companion at consulting company PwC Singapore, the Baltimore port is one of only two ports on the Eastern Seaboard that is strong enough for very big container ships carrying things like cars and farming and construction equipment.

However, based on automotive ownership in Singapore, and the proportion of vehicles arriving from the US as opposed to countries like Japan and China,” that’s a percentage that can probably be managed, especially in the medium to longer term”, he said. &nbsp,

Consumers in the US who anticipate purchasing vehicles from Europe will be aware of the real impact, he added, because those could take months to arrive.

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Heart of the Matter Podcast: Would a 'right to disconnect' law work in Singapore?

Australia is the most recent nation to introduce legislation allowing employees to detach after work hours. Issues like stress have been caused by changing work styles and 24/7 supply. However, may policy cause more issues for businesses, or might this result in a significant shift in Singapore’s workplace culture?

Steven Chia reformers the conversation with Dr. Brandon Koh, a renowned organisational psychologist at the Singapore University of Social Sciences, Dr. Jaclyn Lee, Certis Group’s chief human resources officer, and Raj Joshua Thomas, a attorney and Nominated Member of Parliament.

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Citi executive warns against "invisible ceiling"

Citi executive warns against 'invisible ceiling'
Ms Narumon Chivangkur Citi Country Officer and Banking Head Citi Thailand Bangkok Post Forum 2024″ The Women’s Vision: Empowering Change for a Better Coming” Thursday, March 28, 2024, from 12: 30 to 15: 45 hr. World Ballroom, 23rd Floor, Centara Grand at CentralWorld Photo By VARUTH HIRUNYATHEB

One important issue individuals face when advancing their careers is the growth- restricting “invisible ceiling” they build for themselves, says Narumon Chivangkur, Citi Country Officer and Banking Head at Citi Thailand.

The real issue is not the idea that some jobs are best suited for men more than women, but rather the perception that some people have that they are insufficiently qualified to hold higher positions in their organizations, she says.

” You do n’t have to be 100 % ready to get on the road”, she says.

Ms. Narumon was speaking about her experiences during a panel discussion at the Bangkok Post community yesterday on the subject of” Insights and Challenges on the Path to Women’s Success.”

She claimed that based on her nearly three decades of experience with Citi Group, both men and women can achieve their professional goals while also learning on the job to improve their skills.

” During a journey, we can love learning at every time”, she said. ” I think this can help us reach our destination, to”.

Despite the fact that finance is a “man’s sport,” she claimed that women can get accepted to work in major executive positions.

She believes that the real issue is not the attitude toward identity, but rather the “invisible ceiling” that prevents people from having the confidence to make a decision.

She said that young individuals, especially girls, had not often think of beauty as it is impossible to achieve.

A perfectionist watch will make existence less enjoyment, she said, adding people if, at times, let common sense to take center stage.

Some people, she said, claim that they only want to take time off to plan for a job while denying other people opportunities, which is against this view.

People may leave their comfort regions, she said, to find new lines and advance their careers.

Before joining Citi Group in 1996 to operate as a management affiliate, Ms. Narumon sang in the 1990s. Eventually, she gained knowledge by running Citi’s company in the global market by working mostly with architect colleagues.

In 2015, she became worldwide industry nose, and last year, she became country mind.

She claimed that her powerful path comes not only from her business acumen and skills, but also from her optimistic attitude as she prepared to take on new responsibilities.

” I do n’t feel they are challenges”, she said. ” What I see is the door opened. You can party on the stage.

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When Russian cyber operations targeted the West - Asia Times

This is component five of a line,’ Lessons from the first cyberattacks. ‘&nbsp, Study part one, &nbsp, part two, &nbsp, piece three and part four.

Russia began expanding its targeting of American states after initially becoming aware of cyberattacks against Ukraine and Georgia, especially after Putin’s second invasion of Ukraine in 2014. According to past US embassy to Russia Mike McFaul, Russia wanted to foster instability in Western governments and undermine the legitimacy of political processes. &nbsp,

Following the unlawful annexation of Crimea, Russia engaged in smaller- level distributed- rejection- of- company ( DDoS ) attacks to take out websites. Yet, it would grow sharper in its attacks against the West. In 2015, German researchers found that hackers had safely breached the computer system of the Bundestag, the European legislature. &nbsp,

The German Bundestag attack of 2015 revealed flaws in European computer security. Image: louisjarvers. de

Due to the significance of the intended institution, which Germany believed Russia wanted to steal info to stymie its democratic elections, was thought to be the most important cyberattack in European history. The Christian Democratic Union ( CDU), the political party that was then led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, was targeted in a cyberattack in 2016. &nbsp,

In an effort to get access to sensitive information, the intruders targeted the CDU. To gain access to internal communications and potentially sensitive data, the main goal was to obtain party members ‘ bill names and passwords. But, the attack was not effective. However, it continued to demonstrate to Russia that it was capable of engaging in cyberwar against the West without fear of retribution.

Russia has been the target of a number of attacks against the UK that targeted different industries. The UK has been one of Ukraine’s strongest American sponsors since Russia’s first war in 2014. The Federal Security Service ( FSB ) organized one of the most significant cyberattacks attributed to Russia.

The FSB’s Center 18 and its product Star Blizzard have been linked to by the UK authorities as being concerned for persistent attempts to smear influence over British politics. This included hacking of UK-US business documents before the 2019 general election, hacking of think tanks, and breaches of civil society organizations. Parliamentarians from a variety of political parties were lance phished from 2015 onward. The attacks sought to leak key documents and undermine confidence in UK politics and political processes.

Russian hackers targeted West-based oil and gas companies in an industrial destroy campaign in 2014. &nbsp,

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US has been the victim of significant cybercrime. The most famous event occurred in 2016 when Russian hackers hacked into the Democratic National Committee and emailed WikiLeaks sensitive information.

With the NotPetya assault, which immediately targeted Ukraine but left significant collateral damage to US and other American companies, the Russian digital operations had a global reach in 2017. The White House press assistant’s department reported that the attack was connected to Russia’s plan to destabilize Ukraine. &nbsp,

Ukraine was the victim of an invasion involving the NotPetya malware on June 27, 2017, in what would become one of the most terrible attacks ever to be launched. Tom Bossert, a former US Department of Homeland Security consultant, described the use of NotPetya as “using a atomic bomb to obtain a small military success.” Image: Bleeping Computer

Tariq Ahmad, UK Minister for Cybersecurity at the Foreign Office, described the attack as “reckless”, emphasizing its blatant disrespect for Ukrainian sovereignty. He made a point of highlighting the devastating financial consequences of the attack, noting that hundreds of millions of pounds was lost on European organizations.

NotPetya showed that even though Ukraine is the epicenter for Russia’s cyber aggression, the impact of this cyber war is global. Allies will be defended by assisting Ukraine in its cyberspace defenses. The Department of Homeland Security ( DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation ( FBI ) issued a joint government alert in 2018 as the US energy grid and other crucial infrastructure sectors were targeted by Russian government hackers. &nbsp,

Additionally, the hackers targeted vendors and smaller businesses with weaker defenses, using methods like spear phishing as a launching pad to install malware on more significant networks. &nbsp,

Once inside, the hackers became more aware of how computer systems operated and transmitted data, becoming more knowledgeable about how power plants operated and transmitted information. The hack’s aim was to show how strong Russian cyberpower is and how it can hack crucial US infrastructure.

Russia would only grow bolder with its cyberattacks if there was no strong response to deter future attacks despite the fact that hacking critical infrastructure in the West was thought to be crossing red lines.

The SolarWinds hack, which facilitated Russian hackers to access numerous businesses and US government agencies through hacked IT management software, was discovered in 2020 as part of a sophisticated espionage plot. While the company distributed software updates embedded with the hackers ‘ code to its clients around the world, the SolarWinds cyberattack remained unnoticed for several months.

Hackers gained access to a number of US government networks, including those run by the Treasury Department and the Department of Homeland Security. Following the attack, the US government imposed sanctions on Russia. According to Alex Stamos, director of the Internet Observatory at Stanford University, Russia had carried out “one of the most successful cyber-espionage campaigns of all time” through a routine software update. &nbsp,

A sophisticated adversary, who was looking to exploit the soft underbelly of Americans ‘ digital lives, launched a hack unlike any other in the SolarWinds attack, according to an investigation by National Public Radio. Image: Zoë van Dijk for NPR

In the wake of the SolarWinds breach, US and European governments began to grapple with the uncertainty surrounding cyberred lines. In response to the attack, Marcus Willett, a former senior cyber advisor to Britain’s digital intelligence agency GCHQ, cautioned the US to be reserved in its response to Russia’s” surgical” espionage campaign. &nbsp,

Russian threat actors have long benefited from the lack of clarity in their cyber security policies and have continued to make use of it. &nbsp,

A Russian criminal organization attacked Colonial Pipeline in May 2021, which had an impact on the pipeline’s IT systems. &nbsp,

The attack was so devastating that it caused long lines at gas stations and jet fuel shortages for airlines. The government issued a warning to people to only use containers made of fuel when filling plastic bags in a rush. A state of emergency was required by several US states. &nbsp,

Supply chain attacks, such as the Colonial Pipeline incident, often exploit vulnerabilities in a component within an organization’s network. Even for large organizations, it can be challenging to track down all application components and potential software flaws.

In response, the Biden Administration issued an executive order to US agencies in May 2021 requiring them to enhance their cybersecurity, including adopting software bills of materials ( SBOMs). SBOMs assist in identifying and updating software components, thus enabling quicker responses to vulnerabilities, and assisting buyers in assessing product risks.

A month later, JBS Foods, a major meat processing company, fell victim to a ransomware attack by a Russia- based group, forcing all nine of its beef plants to close temporarily. Additionally, the US company’s poultry and pork processing plants were affected by the attack. Concerns about potential shortages and price increases in the US meat supply chain were the subject of this shutdown, which had a significant impact on the supply chain.

Russia was given the all-clear when the White House claimed it was” considering all options regarding how to react” in the aftermath of the attack.

Russia continued to launch bold cyberattacks, which were never followed by a strong Western response.

NEXT: Cyber warfare following Russia’s full- scale invasion of Ukraine ( 2022 – present )

David Kirichenko&nbsp, is a Ukrainian- American security engineer and freelance journalist. Since Russia’s full- scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 he has taken a civilian&nbsp, activist role.

These articles are excerpted, with kind permission, from&nbsp, a report he presented at the UK Parliament&nbsp, on February 20 on behalf of the Henry Jackson Society.

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China’s home-grown C929 widebody passenger jet enters 'crucial' development stage amid Beijing’s aviation push

China’s house- grown C929 widebody customer aircraft has entered” a critical stage” of its development process, according to its manufacturer, amid Beijing’s ongoing efforts for a solid presence in the aviation industry. Zhang Xiaoguang, director of marketing for Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China ( COMAC ), stated at a scienceContinue Reading

Yellow Line service suspended after parts fall onto street

Next incident involving a monorail program following a wheel fall in January

Yellow Line service suspended after parts fall onto street
On its record above Srinagarindra Road on Thursday night, a Golden Line station is stalled. ( Photo: @vissnup X account )

After some parts of the track collided in an accident that damaged several vehicles, with no injuries reported, the Metropolitan Rapid Transit ( MRT ) Yellow Line’s service was suspended from Thursday morning until midnight.

Operator of the autonomous coach, Eastern Bangkok Monorail Co Ltd, reported that portions of the wire rail had been removed from the monitor between the Kalantan and Si Udom channels.

Nine vehicles and three motorcycles, or at least 12 vehicles, were discovered damaged by the falling road parts.

The Golden Line’s social media channels just announced that the company had to be suspended at all channels because the business is “attempting to handle a problem.” Eventually, the Ministry of Transportation ordered the company to be suspended until evening, according to local media reports.

The suspension was in effect before 9 a.m. because riders were using the range during rush hour to get to function. Team members were seen assisting individuals as they walked along the trail as a train was ordered to stop between the channels.

During the strange knowledge of walking along the track, some people took the chance to take photos and videos.

On social media, photographs of some of the fallen pieces were also shared.

Between Lat Phrao and Samrong, the Golden Series rail travels. The company was launched in July of last year.

Thursday’s event was the next mishap&nbsp, on the rail structure, from which a vehicle tumbled on Jan 2 and struck a vehicle on the road below. &nbsp,

In response, a replacement of the ball-bearings on all Golden Series trains was ordered in order to ensure public safety.

A portion of wire bridge on the Pink Line rail broke free from its frame and fell onto a street in January, causing damage to some parked cars along Tiwanon Road in Nonthaburi.

North Bangkok Monorail Co. is the Pink Line’s operator. The organization and Eastern Bangkok Monorail are subsidiaries of BSR JV Consortium, a cooperative venture between three large SET- listed companies: BTS Group Holdings, with a 75 % shareholding, Sino- Thai Engineering and Construction, and Ratch Group, a main power producer.

A man holds a piece of track technology that was thrown from the Golden Collection on Thursday, causing service to be halted. ( Photo: @vissnup X account )

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Yellow Line service disrupted after parts fall onto street

Next incident involving a rail system following a wheel-drop accident in January

Yellow Line service disrupted after parts fall onto street
On Thursday night, a Golden Line train is in a halt. The coach travels along Srinagarindra Road. ( Photo: @vissnup X account )

The Metropolitan Rapid Transit ( MRT ) Yellow Line’s service has been suspended since Thursday morning after some tracks were allegedly colliding in an accident that reportedly damaged three vehicles. No injuries have been reported.

Operator of the autonomous coach, Eastern Bangkok Monorail Co Ltd, reported parts of the wire bridge having fallen from the trail between the Kalantan and Si Udom facilities, according to Krungthep Turakij. No injuries were reported in the crash, which also involved two motorcycles and two vehicles.

The Golden Line’s social media channels just made the announcement that all channels ‘ services would be suspended as a result of the company’s efforts to fix the issues.

Because travellers were using the range during rush hour traffic to get to work, the expulsion came into effect before 9 am. Staff were seen assisting individuals as they walked along the trail as a coach was ordered to stop between the channels.

During the strange experience of walking along the trail, some people took the chance to take photos and videos.

@plaapiyaa เรื่องราวเช้านี้… กับการไปทำงานที่เรารัก# สถานีศรีอุดม# รถไฟฟ้าสายสีเหลือง# VoiceEffects ♬ โจ๊ะ จะ จะ- ทิดเซียง เสียงเสน่ห ์

Some fallen pieces were captured in images on social media.

Between Lat Phrao and Samrong, the Golden Series rail travels. The company was launched in July of last year.

Thursday’s event was the next mishap&nbsp, on the rail structure, from which a vehicle tumbled on Jan 2 and struck a vehicle on the road below. &nbsp,

In response, a decision was made to replace the ball-bearings on all Golden Series trains in order to ensure public safety.

A portion of wire bridge on the Pink Line rail broke free from its frame and fell onto a street in January, causing damage to some parked cars along Tiwanon Road in Nonthaburi.

North Bangkok Monorail Co. is the Pink Line’s controller. The organization and Eastern Bangkok Monorail are subsidiaries of BSR JV Consortium, a cooperative venture between three large SET- listed companies: BTS Group Holdings, with a 75 % shareholding, Sino- Thai Engineering and Construction, and Ratch Group, a main power producer.

A person holds a piece of track equipment that fell on Thursday from the Yellow Line, causing service to be halted. ( Photo: @vissnup X account )

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Majority of SMEs use AI, but may not be equipped to deal with challenges like deepfakes

SINGAPORE: A majority of small and medium enterprises ( SMEs ) have turned to artificial intelligence ( AI ) to improve their operations, but may not be doing enough to ensure their security.

According to a recent survey of business owners conducted by the Association of SMEs ( ASME), 90 % of respondents had tried implementing some sort of AI solution. Shipping and route are two of the areas where they are using this technology, according to ASME leader Ang Yuit.

The association has also witnessed a 20 % increase in the percentage of businesses reporting falling prey to scams year over year.

” Many organizations are concerned about whether they can be hacked, and whether they would gain money financially, especially when a violation happens”, he said.

Their problems are not just related to AI, but also to other breaches like fraud and hacking, he continued. Despite their concerns, some are willing to take a “wait and see” view towards improving their protection, he said.

A part company lately experienced phishing scams when its e-mail system was compromised, and an intruder posed as an employee and demanded that a customer transfer funds to a different bank account, he shared.

More and more companies are targeted for varying forms of that. So you can only imagine that the threat of even worse hacking, using deepfakes, and using AI, did increase,” he said.

” The problem is that many companies may not have the speed, particularly when you’re talking about SMEs, to really effectively cope with it”, he added. He claimed that the majority of firms rely on financial institutions to protect them from scams.

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Myanmar’s widening war headed for junta’s heartland - Asia Times

The wide and deeply disturbing contours of turmoil for the remaining of 2024 and into 2025 are now taking shape, even before the end of a clean season that has considerably altered the defense balance in Myanmar.

Recent months have seen large swathes of the nation’s borderlands fall under the control of powerful ethnic minority armies amid cascading defeats suffered by State Administration Council ( SAC ) military forces.

However, the war will almost certainly be waged at an increased level in the country’s highly populated cultural Bamar heartland and will be a really unique fight in the upcoming rainy season and beyond.

Short of a political implosion of the embattled regime in Naypyidaw– a conceivable but however unlikely scenario – the now discernable shift of major hostilities toward the center of national power promises a much less organized and more savagely destructive conflict than anything seen to date with certainly dire humanitarian consequences.

In the worst case scenario, there might be a rise in killing and population displacement in Southeast Asia that has n’t been seen since the Indochina wars of the 1970s.

The scale of the army’s recent battlefield losses and its impact on morale offers some ground for hope that the coming phase of the war might, if nasty and brutish, at least be short and that a” strategic offensive” announced by the opposition National Unity Government ( NUG) last December will push a weakened SAC regime toward collapse or break the military’s cohesion. &nbsp,

It remains to be seen how much criticism- led estimates of government decline are justified but the omens are at best combined.

The three distinct campaigns launched by ethnic resistance organizations ( EROs ) in Myanmar’s dry season ended in May have, if ever, effectively redrawn the military and administrative landscape in a way that a struggling SAC regime will not be able to reverse.

Launched by the joint Brotherhood Alliance of racial Palaung, Kokang Chinese and Rakhine rebel forces, the” Operation 1027″ that second opened on October 27 last year and finally swept across the northern of Shan state, seizing cities from SAC power and severing the most important business vessels to China.

A potent insurgent front has been formed by MNDAA, TNLA, and AA ethnic armed groups. Image: Facebook

Operation 1027 merged with an equally well-prepared and still ongoing campaign spearheaded by the Brotherhood’s numerically largest force, the Arakan Army ( AA ), which seized the majority of the state’s Rakhine on the Bay of Bengal in a slew of fierce assaults from mid-November.

And, in early March, it was the turn of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA ) to launch a strategic offensive, which in less than two weeks relieved pressure on its” capital” of Laiza on the China border and rolled up a string of army bases along the strategic road between the Kachin state capital of Myitkyina and the Ayeyarwady river port city of Bhamo.

Rebel blows that cause havoc

SAC forces continue to hold out in major urban centers, notably Lashio in Shan state, Sittwe in Rakhine and Myitkyina in Kachin. However, these insurgent campaigns ‘ ferocious success, which were the result of months of planning and preparation, had historically dealt the army with never-before-seen losses in munitions, morale, and manpower.

Assessments of battlefield casualties in Myanmar have more to do with informed guesswork than statistical certainty but it is reasonable to conclude that since late October the army has lost at least 8, 000 and probably more than 10, 000 men killed or captured.

This toll comes from a conservative breakdown of losses that were likely caused by the overrunning of two divisional-sized Military Operation Command headquarters ( MOC 16 in Hsenwi, Shan state, and MOC 9 in Kyauktaw, Rakhine state ), as well as at least 30 battalion bases, a sizable military training complex in Minbya township, and a number of smaller army and border police posts. &nbsp,

The more than 4, 000 soldiers who were given the go-ahead to a Regional Operations Command ( ROC ) in Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang region in Shan state, are not included in the list. If in the coming weeks the ROC at Sittwe and another MOC in Buthidaung in Rakhine were also to fall, this toll would obviously rise further.

The impact of this scandal, which unfolds in a matter of weeks, has undoubtedly shaken confidence at command levels and almost certainly contributed to the decision to institute a national conscription law with a call-up process starting in April. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

The sheer volume of munitions and equipment lost in these repeated defeats was no less threatening. In addition to huge quantities of small arms and light weapons, the army has lost scores of heavy 122mm and a few 155mm howitzers and at least 50 armored fighting vehicles. Given the ethnic armies of the Brotherhood’s traditional capabilities, which they have never previously had.

Superimposing these human and material losses on a map of Myanmar reveals a politically and economically bankrupt regime encircled to the east, west, north and southeast by aggressively assertive ethnic opposition forces committed to its overthrow while at the same time facing relentless popular resistance across the military’s traditional powerbase in the national heartland.

Military logic suggests that the current coup regime’s defeat is the only way this forces-force correlation can be resolved strategically. The essential issue is how long this process may take and what cost it will exact.

Coming bloody battle

Expectations that recent advances in the borderlands have triggered a “tipping point” that can translate into a nationwide strategic offensive are almost certainly premature and need to be set against psychological and material factors that suggest the possibility, even likelihood, of a very bloody and long- drawn- out struggle across the central regions of the country.

In the first place, it would be foolish to ignore a ruling military caste’s peculiar psychoses, which show how, after seven decades of power, privilege, and impunity, it has come to view itself as the unavoidable protector of its soul.

The military elite’s messianic obsession with national salvation and an ingrained xenophobia never far beneath the surface merge easily enough into a more down- to- earth fight for institutional and personal self- preservation.

The story of a depleted and besieged Tatmadaw that stood firm and ultimately prevailed against insurgent forces then ravaged the Bamar heartland serves to reinforce these mindsets and unquestionably appeals to some regime supporters.

For most army rank and file, however, instinctive discipline, a paycheck and the defense of family and comrades undoubtedly hold greater psychological sway than any misconstrued reading of history.

Myanmar’s soldiers march in a formation during a parade to commemorate the nation’s 74th Armed Forces Day on March 27, 2019, in Naypyidaw. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Thet Aung

It is also important to realize that the army’s losses since October have been significant but not decisive in terms of material.

According to one intelligence source’s tentative assessment, the army still almost certainly numbers around 70, 000 troops supported by militarized police and militia units organized under a unified command structure. This ballpark estimate is supported by a wider consensus among independent analysts.

Furthermore, at least some of these heartland forces constitute the praetorian core of military rule.

Most are typically paraded out on the March 27 Armed Forces Day parade and fall under the Naypyidaw and Yangon Regional Military Commands ( RMCs ), which include special forces companies and airborne-trained battalions. Others are assault battalions drawn from centrally commanded– but now badly mauled – Light Infantry Divisions ( LIDs ) based around the heartland in key garrison cities such as Meiktila, Magwe, Pakokku and Bago.

These loyalist units are made of well-equipped, disciplined troops with a high esprit de corps and an undeniable willingness to escalate the conflict with their backs now facing the wall, much like the Waffen SS of Nazi Germany.

As fighting spreads across the central plains in the months ahead, these units will be supported by artillery and air power that events over the past year indicate will have no compunction in leveling entire urban communities where popular resistance forces operate or seek to take control. They may also be supported by armored units, which have so far played virtually no part in the conflict.

Ranged on the other side of Myanmar’s now starkly existential divide are newly formed Peoples Defense Forces ( PDFs ) that since mid- 2021 have proved increasingly adept in guerrilla operations across wide swathes of central Myanmar, most notably in Sagaing but also in Mandalay, Magwe, Bago and southern Tanintharyi.

However, PDFs in the Myanmar heartland fight as loose coalitions of lightly armed guerrillas that, for the most part, have learned on the job, in contrast to the ethnic armies that have deployed trained and equipped battalions and brigades in carefully planned strategic offensives since October.

Operating mostly without strategic direction and with tactical command- and- control that is often weak, these armed bands still lack the organization and equipment for sustained offensive operations against conventional forces maneuvering in strength. In summary, if ethnic armies are prepared for” strategic offensive” prime time, their PDF allies are undoubtedly not.

This stark disparity raises the prospect of a potentially protracted and savage war across the crowded heartlands of Myanmar with far heavier losses in resistance ranks than seen to date accompanied by levels of civilian displacement that could well dwarf an estimated 2.3 million already driven from their homes.

Chaos avoiding

Two critical variables may serve to mitigate or perhaps even avoid a descent into open- ended, anomic chaos.

The most pressing concern is posed by military capability, as well as how well-equipped key EROs are to increase training and logistical support for heartland PDFs and, in some theaters, how much personnel they may even commit to their own.

The framework for such cooperation already exists on various fronts where EROs, most notably Kachin, Karen and Ta’ang, have trained, equipped and mentored affiliated PDFs since the early days of armed resistance to the coup.

However, a much greater level of support will be required to increase the capabilities of PDFs over the upcoming months and into the following year, which will require a lot more coordination between an ERO” coalition of the willing” and the NUG’s Defense Ministry.

Specifically, it will demand a willingness to mobilize and equip regular PDF units with heavier weapons– particularly anti- aircraft heavy machine guns and mortars – drawn from the cornucopia of munitions captured over recent months. &nbsp,

Against the backdrop of a traditionally fraught relationship between ethnic minorities and the dominant Bamar, the political and financial impediments to such a strategic initiative are significant. However, it’s conceivable that” crunch time” for making difficult decisions now has arrived rather than the past.

China’s role will also be important, if not critical. China’s intentions regarding using its influence over the Brotherhood to restrain large-scale support of PDFs under the NUG’s control or, alternatively, whether it has come to regard the Brotherhood allies as valuable proxies in defending its own interests in the Myanmar heartland and even more broadly in a post-SAC future. &nbsp,

A second variable hinges on PDF forces adopting a more unified military strategy. The dangers of a” strategic offensive” were amply demonstrated during the previous dry season at Kawlin, a district center of no significant strategic importance in Upper Sagaing, which was supported by the KIA on November 6 at the heady height of 1027 euphoria. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Members of the Karenni People’s Defense Force (KPDF) are pictured in this photo, which was taken on July 7, 2021, undergoing military training at their camp in Kayah state near Demoso. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Stringer

Kawlin was hailed by the NUG as a model for a liberated administration, but it was shelled, bombed, depopulated, and finally retaken by the military in February, which is a clear indication of why it was seized in the first place if there was no longer a better plan.

More recently, in early March, the same opportunistic approach was adopted at Kani, a town on the Chindwin River also in Upper Sagaing where PDFs joined forces in a determined attempt to overrun the center only to have to withdraw under intense army pressure ten days later.

Moving to seize towns at this point of the war prompted a concerted counterpunch that PDFs are unable to withstand, as both cases demonstrated. If these reverses could happen in Sagaing where PDFs have made hard- won battlefield progress, similar forays in Mandalay or Magwe regions would also certainly be repelled.

A strategic strategy with significantly better chances of success, rather than an uncoordinated and expensive opportunism, might focus on arteries of communication and resupply. Progressively asserting control along highways and restricting military movement between towns has two obvious benefits.

First, it forces the army out of urban bases into exhausting road opening operations, which eventually turn out to be prohibitively expensive. This dynamic is already visible on the Asia Highway to the Thai border at Myawaddy where the Karen and allied PDFs have essentially taken control of the road east of Kawkareik town.

Second, a primary offensive focus on roads and railways provides time and space for building better-organized PDF units at battalion and brigade levels, forces that in the context of wider strategic planning will eventually be able to take and hold urban centers in the face of constant guerrilla harassment that extends into urban areas.

Neither the improvement of PDF capabilities nor the adoption of a strategic approach to operations in the heartland can or should be taken for granted. Indeed, the NUG at the center of a terrifyingly disorganized battlespace arguably militates against them given the political and logistical strains they impose on them.

The alternative to progress on both crucial fronts, however, may well be a descent into years of increasingly chaotic and costly violence with regional repercussions that are impossible to predict.

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