China still invaluable to global value chains

The end of the Cold War witnessed a period of “Hyperglobalization“, during which China emerged as a central player in trade and global value chains (GVCs). 

Nowadays, GVCs account for more than 70% of international trade and China is moving toward a more upstream position in GVCs, in line with its transition to becoming a global supply hub in GVC networks.

China’s participation in GVCs enabled its transition from low-end manufacturing to higher value-added production activities. Initially, China capitalized on low labor costs and favorable investment policies to attract foreign investments in labor-intensive but low-value-added industries. 

Over time, Chinese firms have shifted towards higher value-added activities through industrial upgrading, research and development, technology adoption and workforce skill enhancements.

Domestically-owned firms have evolved into manufacturing supply centers and new regional hubs for service supply and demand. China has become a leading innovator in various industries as it transitions from an assembler to a sophisticated supplier and innovator in GVCs.

China’s evolving economic conditions, including rising labor costs, are also changing multinational enterprise investment behavior. Its aging population will result in a further decline in the working-age population and a shift in the structure of its labor market. 

Despite the low labor share and a slower wage increase compared to GDP growth, China’s unit labor cost continues to rise, eroding the country’s manufacturing labor cost competitiveness.

Improving the business environment and fostering innovation will be crucial for promoting exports in skill-intensive and contract-dependent industries as China navigates these demographic and economic challenges

While low-end manufacturing industries are outsourced, higher value-added industries with longer supply chains will remain in China, benefitting from its comprehensive manufacturing system, well-developed infrastructure and supportive government services. These factors continue to attract foreign investments despite rising geopolitical tensions.

The US-China trade conflict, which began in 2018, has negatively affected China’s exports and prompted changes in value-added structure

US President Joe Biden’s administration shifted the focus of its strategic competition with China to high-tech industries. The number of firms on the US Entity List has quadrupled and restrictions on semiconductor industry export have tightened.

Joe Biden’s CHIPS Act aims to bring more manufacturing to the US. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

Decoupling and derisking have significant global consequences, including the fragmentation of GVCs, reduced efficiency, elevated production costs and higher consumer prices. International collaboration in research and development has also been hindered, stalling technological progress and innovation

Geopolitical tensions could also intensify, causing businesses and investors to become risk-averse, leading to decreased investments, stagnant economic growth or even recession.

If China’s access to the GVC declines, it will slow down knowledge and technology flows into China from the global economy, which will dampen growth.

Multinational enterprises would lose access to China’s large market, knowledge, technological leadership and efficient industrial system — hampering their business plans and brand development.

South Korean companies have been impacted by US export controls against China. South Korea is a trade-dependent economy – its sum of export and imports as a share of GDP is around 80% – with 31% of total exports being electrical and electronic equipment. 

South Korea shipped 55% of its semiconductor exports to China in 2022. The country’s chipmakers cannot ignore business prospects in China and are worried that US export control policies could undermine their expansion.

China should be viewed as an opportunity and a driving force for worldwide economic recovery and prosperity, rather than a threat. A thriving China contributes significantly to global growth and has accounted for one-third of total expansion since the global financial crisis. 

Embracing collaboration and integration within the global value chains can lead to increased efficiency, innovation and shared knowledge.

The effects of decoupling are yet to manifest. Despite increased decoupling, US-China trade hit a new record in 2022. But China’s preparedness to withstand decoupling could be bolstered by its large economic size and integrated domestic market, which the “dual circulation” strategy is designed to achieve. 

The decreasing share of FDI in China’s total investment since 1994 suggests that China can maintain and expand its production capacity using domestic or other sources of capital even if decoupling were to occur.

China’s institutional structure also supports heavy government investments in weaker areas, contributing to the development of a domestic supply chain.

China’s property crisis is just one area of several emerging areas of economic concern. Photo: AFP / Noel Celis

But it will be difficult for the Chinese economy – burdened by an aging population, large-scale debt, weak domestic consumption and economic slowdown due to structural problems such as housing downturns – to completely offset the decline in global sales with an increase in domestic market demand.

Economic decoupling has detrimental impacts on the weakening global trading system, even with the emerging regional free trade arrangements, with long-term consequences to future cross-border flows of trade, investment and technology. Such costs will far outweigh any benefits of decoupling. 

What the world needs is a new wave of global economic reintegration to offset the negative impacts of the pandemic and the global economic slowdown. Upholding the principles and practices of open trade and multilateralism is the key to achieving this.

Ligang Song is Professor of Economics at the Arndt-Corden Department of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

Yixiao Zhou is Associate Professor of Economics at the Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

Continue Reading

Rahul Gandhi: Congress MP blames Indian PM Modi for Manipur crisis

Rahul GandhiGetty Images

Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi has accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of “murdering Mother India” in violence-hit Manipur state.

“They killed India in Manipur. Their politics killed India in Manipur,” Mr Gandhi said in parliament amid uproar from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

He was speaking during a no-confidence motion debate that the opposition have brought against Mr Modi’s government.

A vote is due on the motion on Thursday after the debate ends.

Mr Modi’s government won’t lose the vote as his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies have a majority in parliament.

But opposition leaders say the debate will force Mr Modi to speak on the ongoing ethnic clashes in Manipur state.

More than 150 people have died and tens of thousands have been displaced in Manipur since early May, when ethnic clashes broke out between the majority Meitei group and the tribal Kuki minority. Mr Modi only publicly addressed the violence weeks later, after a video that showed two women being paraded naked by a mob sparked global outrage.

Speaking in the house, Mr Gandhi said that for Mr Modi, Manipur was not important. “Our prime minister did not go to the state because for him, Manipur is not a part of India.”

The Congress party leader added, “They killed India in Manipur. Their politics has not just killed Manipur, but it has killed India in Manipur. They have murdered India in Manipur.”

Mr Gandhi’s comments sparked protests from BJP leaders who accused him of trivialising India’s name.

“You are not India, for India is not corrupt. India believes in merit, not in dynasty,” BJP MP and federal minister Smriti Irani said. The comment was a reference to the Nehru-Gandhi family, one of India’s most renowned political dynasties, that ruled India for much of its history since independence in 1947.

Mr Gandhi’s speech came days after he returned to parliament for the first time since he was convicted in a criminal defamation case.

He had lost his lawmaker status in March after he was sentenced to two years in jail. He was reinstated as MP on Monday, two days after the Supreme Court suspended his conviction.

On Monday, he visited the parliament building after paying respects to the statue of Mahatma Gandhi in the complex where he was welcomed by opposition leaders.

The parliament session, which began on 20 July, has been marked by protests from opposition leaders who have demanded that Mr Modi address the house on the violence in Manipur.

This is the second time that Mr Modi’s government is facing a no-confidence motion since it came to power in 2014. In 2018, a lawmaker had moved a motion over the issue of granting a special category status to Andhra Pradesh state. It was defeated after a 12-hour debate.

The ongoing no-confidence debate is also a chance for a newly-formed opposition alliance of 26 parties – called INDIA – to display their unity. The alliance, which was formed in July – aims to take on Mr Modi’s BJP in the general elections next year.

BBC News India is now on YouTube. Click here to subscribe and watch our documentaries, explainers and features.

Presentational grey line

Read more India stories from the BBC:

Presentational grey line

Continue Reading

China-ASEAN FTA raises digital trade stakes

Negotiations for the third iteration of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement continued beyond June 2023. Of the three issues highlighted by Chinese Deputy Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen, green economy and supply chain management are of compelling importance. 

They offer major opportunities for liberalizing trade in environmental goods and services and further strengthening ASEAN’s vital linkages in its value chain with China. But the third issue identified by Wang Shouwen — the development of the digital economy — has raised some alarm bells for ASEAN negotiators and others.

Digital trade is broadly defined as all trade that is digitally-ordered or digitally-delivered and now accounts for roughly a quarter of international commerce. It continues to grow and it holds the key to future global productivity growth. 

But as preferential free trade agreements proliferate, with 116 currently in existence, and each with different e-commerce provisions, the risk of disruptive fragmentation in digital trade as divergent rules to manage data availability and protection emerge is growing. 

The present cocktail of FTAs is at risk of transforming into a digital potage of zeroes and ones, with China-ASEAN adding to the confusion.

The particular danger with digital alignment between China-ASEAN is that it will add restrictiveness to existing confusion as the rules governing cross-border data movement come to be modeled on those that have been set by China. 

For Beijing, data-protection laws such as the Data Security Law, the Cybersecurity Law and the Personal Information Protection Law, enshrine control over access to data implemented through localization requirements. 

The US and China are jousting over data privacy issues. Image: iStock

These requirements, strengthened in 2021 and again in June 2023, prevent foreign-based companies operating in China from sending Chinese client data or product test information to their head offices for analysis.

In the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 2021 Trade Policy Review of China, a number of members expressed concern at the very wide definition of national security invoked in Beijing’s digital data management.

ASEAN nations may need little persuasion to follow China’s lead. Vietnam has already adopted some of Beijing’s methods of data localization, prompting concerned US business groups to write to Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh in September 2022. Cambodia and Indonesia are also moving towards tighter data localization.

The cost of restrictions to digital data flows can be very high and potentially greater than physical trade impediments given the flux in digital technology. 

The OECD estimates that, in a country sample where China is by far the most restrictive, a 0.1 point reduction in data restriction is associated with a 145% increase in overall exports. They also find that the impact of digital connectivity in reducing trade costs is now three times higher than it was in 1995.

ASEAN nations may find themselves at the center of tensions over digital infrastructure and digital rules by entering a bilateral deal with China.

For example, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore are all linked to a new subsea fiber optic cable called Apricot, being built for Google and Meta, that also links Guam, Japan and Taiwan. Apricot was built deliberately to avoid the South China Sea.

Nonetheless, China still has to be engaged in the development of digital technology and rules. This could be achieved within a broader negotiating framework, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), of which China is an aspiring member and which would oblige Beijing to permit freer cross-border data flows. 

This could also bring the United States back into the fold. Yet given congressional antipathy, the United States is very unlikely to seek to join the CPTPP and even less likely to back China’s bid for membership.

There is another forum for engaging China in the promotion of digital trade. This is the WTO Joint Initiative on e-commerce, chaired by Australia, Japan and Singapore, which strives for greater international convergence on provisions that enable and promote cross-border data flows. 

Importantly, the WTO Joint Initiative includes both the United States and China within its 89 members, providing a valuable opportunity for US-China cooperation. This WTO initiative also includes Brunei Darussalem, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand.

Representatives of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at the ASEAN 55 Celebration in Jakarta on August 8, 2022. Photo: ASEAN

A particularly timely objective for the co-chairs is to promote the concept advanced in 2019 by former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe on Data Free Flow with Trust. 

This approach, now attracting interest among governments and academic experts, would be far removed from what Beijing would likely seek to impose within the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.

In negotiating with Beijing, ASEAN undoubtedly risks being dominated by its bigger partner, but the rewards of closer integration make that a risk worth taking – particularly when it is attenuated by the possibility of engaging China multilaterally.

Ken Heydon is a former Australian trade official and senior member of the OECD secretariat, and Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science. 

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

Continue Reading

World Scout Jamboree: How troubles plagued South Korea’s operation

The campsite Saemangeum is a flat, reclaimed land without any natural shadeEPA

In just a matter of days, the 25th World Scout Jamboree in South Korea was crippled by a heatwave, looming typhoon, Covid outbreak and misconduct allegations.

Complaints were followed by accusations of lack of preparation by the organisers.

Described as the world’s largest youth camp, the jamboree – or festival – gathers young Scouts from around the world every four years.

About 43,000 participants – mainly scouts aged 14-18 – gathered on 1 August for the 12-day event on South Korea’s western coast.

But campsite problems led to contingents pulling out. On Monday, an incoming typhoon which turned into a tropical storm forced organisers to call quits and evacuate all participants from the Saemangeum area- a vast, treeless flatland.

Scout groups are now scattered at sites across the country, including hundreds of kilometres north in the capital Seoul.

But the jamboree’s problems began long before the storm.

In the week preceding the event, heavy rainfall turned the campsite into a muddy swamp and breeding ground for mosquitoes and flies.

Days later, a heatwave shot temperatures up to 35C (95F) as the event began. About 400 cases of heat exhaustion were reported on the first night – with many people having to be treated at a makeshift hospital on the baking grounds. A Covid-19 outbreak also spread to about 70 campers.

The South Korean organising committee deployed additional medical staffers to the event, and provided more shade and air conditioners on site, but it wasn’t enough, campers said.

Participants complained about poor sanitation, rotten food, a lack of shelter and privacy.

A man from the Thai delegation was caught walking into the female shower facility. He said it was an accident, and he had not seen a sign designating gender. After the incident, all 85 South Korean scouts and leaders withdrew from the jamboree, saying organisers did not do enough to protect women.

Participants hosing themselves off to stay cool at the site as a heatwave grips South Korea

Reuters

By the end of the week, the UK and US contingents had pulled their thousands of scouts out of the campsite. They were followed by other countries including Singapore and New Zealand.

And on Tuesday, everyone else was evacuated from the Saemangeum site after South Korean authorities conceded it was no longer safe to run the event given the approaching storm.

Thousands of participants and volunteers were ferried out of the campsite in a convoy of more than 1,000 buses to other locations around South Korea. On Wednesday, one of the buses crashed, injuring three Swiss scout members who had to be taken to hospital.

The show must go on

Despite the evacuation from its main camp site, organisers say the jamboree, scheduled to continue to 12 August, will roll on with tours and education programmes in the new sites around the country where the scouts have been taken.

South Korea’s culture ministry also announced on Tuesday that a closing ceremony will be held at the end of the week at the Seoul World Cup Stadium, along with a K-pop concert.

A spokesman from the New Zealand contingent told the BBC it had taken their team years to raise funds for the event, and the adult volunteers were “determined to make this a positive experience” despite the challenges.

But the post-event autopsy has already begun. Some critics before the event- including local politicians- raised concerns about gathering so many people at a site that lacked natural protection from the heat.

A senior South Korean official, who was called in to the site last week, told the BBC he believed a key reason for the mess was the number of authorities involved.

“We dispatched some workers to the site, and there were reports that they couldn’t even have lunch. There were piles of lunch boxes prepared, but there was nobody to distribute it,” he told the BBC. He declined to be named as he said he was not authorised to speak to media.

On top of the Korea Scout Association, the project was also managed by the province’s officials, South Korea’s legislature, as well as three other government agencies including the ministry of gender equality and family, the ministry of tourism, and the ministry of interior and safety.

Logistical stuff-ups persist, Korean media report. For example, officials in one district prepared food and accommodation for 175 evacuated scouts of the Yemen contingent. But it turned out the scouts had not even attended the jamboree in the first place.

“This is the first time in more than 100 years of World Scout Jamborees that we have had to face such compounded challenges, from untimely floods to an unprecedented heatwave and now a typhoon!” said Ahmad Alhendawi, the Secretary-General of the World Organization of the Scout Movement, in a statement.

Natural disasters- like the typhoon – are an unforeseen calamity. The last time a typhoon had disrupted the event was at the 1971 jamboree held in Japan, a spokesman from the Scouts told the BBC.

But South Korean authorities will also be sifting through accusations of mismanagement after six years of preparation.

The jamboree is a major event. Countries bid to host the festival each time, and in 2017, South Korea won that right.

Local authorities had hoped the first world jamboree to held since the pandemic would bring in investment and tourist dollars. It was to be seen as the country’s largest undertaking in terms of international participants since the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.

However, the event’s troubles have instead led to Korean media calling the event “a national disgrace.”

Continue Reading

Pheu Thai brings 6 small parties into its alliance

Pheu Thai brings 6 small parties into its alliance
Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew, centre left, and key members of Pheu Thai and the six other political parties brought into the coalition, at Wednesday’s announcement. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)

The Pheu Thai Party has brought six more political parties into its alliance to form a coalition government, lifting the total number of House seats in the group to 238.

Key members of Pheu Thai and the six new parties announced their alliance at parliament on Wednesday. The other parties are – Prachachart (9 House seats), Pheu Thai Ruam Palang (2), Charthaipattanakla (2), Seri Ruam Thai  (1), Palang Sangkhom Mai (1) and The Thongtee Thai  Party (The Party of Thai Counties), which has one MP and was formed by former village chiefs, health volunteers and other civil servants. 

Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew said his party had now secured 238 House seats in its bid to form a Pheu Thai-led coalition government.

Pheu Thai and all its coalition partners were hopeful they could ease political tensions and would seek support from all sides, elected MPs and appointed senators, for its candidate for prime minister, Dr Cholnan said.

Also present at the announcement were Pheu Thai deputy leader Phumtham Wechayachai, Pheu Thai secretary-general Prasert Chantararuangthong, Seri Ram Thai leader Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, Charthaipattanakla chairman Suwat Limtapanlop, Prachachart secretary-general Tawee Sodsong and representatives of the other parties.

On Monday, the leaders of the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties announced they would be the core of a bid to form a new coalition government. The two parties have 212 seats in total in the House of Representatives. The six new parties bring another 16 seats.

Pheu Thai came second in the May 14 general election with 141 House seats, followed by Bhumjaithai with 71.

On Aug 2, Pheu Thai dumped the election-winning Move Forward Party (MFP) and pulled out of the agreement signed with the seven other original alllies seeking to form a coalition government. The party said it would form its own coalition because the MFP insisted on amending Section 112 of the Criminal code, known as the lese majeste law, which many other MPs and most of the military appointed senators oppose.

Pheu Thai said it would nominate its own candidate for prime minister, Srettha Thavisin.

MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat failed to win parliament’s backing when nominated for prime minister on July 13.

Continue Reading

Deflation: Why falling prices in China raise concerns

Customers shop at a supermarket in Qingzhou, East China's Shandong province, 10 July, 2023.Getty Images

China’s economy has slipped into deflation as consumer prices declined in July for the first time in more than two years.

The official consumer price index, a measure of inflation, fell by 0.3% last month from a year earlier.

Analysts said this increases pressure on the government to revive demand in the world’s second largest economy.

This follows weak import and export data, which raised questions about the pace of China’s post-pandemic recovery.

The country is also tackling ballooning local government debt and challenges in the housing market. Youth unemployment, which is at a record high, is also being closely watched as a record 11.58 million university graduates are expected to enter the Chinese job market this year.

Falling prices makes it harder for China to lower its debt – and all the challenges which stem from that, such as a slower rate of growth, analysts said.

“There is no secret sauce that could be applied to lift inflation,” says Daniel Murray from investment firm EFG Asset Management. He suggests a “simple mix of more government spending and lower taxes alongside easier monetary policy”.

When did prices start falling?

Most developed countries saw a boom in consumer spending after pandemic restrictions ended. People who had saved money were suddenly able and willing to spend, while businesses struggled to keep up with the demand.

The huge increase in demand for goods that were limited in supply – coupled with rising energy costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – inflated prices.

But this is not what happened in China, where prices did not soar as the economy emerged from the world’s tightest coronavirus rules. Consumer prices last fell in February 2021.

In fact, they have been at the cusp of deflation for months, flatlining earlier this year due to weak demand. The prices charged by China’s manufacturers – known as factory gate prices – have also been falling.

“It is worrisome as far as it shows that demand in China is poor while the rest of the world is awakening, especially the West,” Alicia Garcia-Herrero, an adjunct professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said.

“Deflation will not help China. Debt will become more heavy. All of this is not good news,” she added.

Why is deflation a problem?

China produces a large proportion of the goods sold around the world.

A potential positive impact of an extended period of deflation in the country may be that it helps to curb rising prices in other parts of the world, including the UK.

However, if cut-price Chinese goods flood global markets it could have a negative impact on manufacturers in other countries. That could hit investment by businesses and squeeze employment.

A period of falling prices in China could also hit company profits and consumer spending. This may then lead to higher unemployment.

It could result in a fall in demand from the country – the world’s largest marketplace – for energy, raw materials and food, which would hit global exports.

What does this mean for China’s economy?

China’s economy is already facing other hurdles. For one, it is recovering from the impact of the pandemic at a rate that is slower than expected.

On Tuesday, official figures showed that China’s exports fell by 14.5% in July compared with a year earlier, while imports dropped 12.4%. The grim trade data reinforces concerns that the country’s economic growth could slow further this year.

China is also dealing with an ongoing property market crisis after the near-collapse of its biggest real estate developer Evergrande.

The Chinese government has been sending the message that everything is under control, but has so far avoided any major measures to encourage economic growth.

Building confidence among investors and consumers will be key to China’s recovery, Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University, said.

“The real issue is whether the government can get confidence back in the private sector, so households will go out and spend rather than save, and businesses will start investing, which it hasn’t accomplished so far,” Professor Prasad said.

“I think we’re going to have to see some significant stimulus measures (including) tax cuts.”

Additional reporting by BBC business reporter Peter Hoskins.

Related Topics

Continue Reading

Japan flexes military muscles in Australia

The Talisman Saber 2023 exercise has finished in Australia. The exercise included 13 countries and was an impressive and complex mix of amphibious, maritime, ground, air and combined arms training. And all geared toward war-fighting. Even Japan’s Self-Defense Force (JSDF) sent a contingent.

Japan’s contingent included the Japanese navy, along with amphibious ships JS Izumo and JS Shimokita. It also sent the Ground Self-Defense Force’s “Marines” – the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB) – and the Japanese army’s 1st Helicopter Brigade.

The Japanese even took advantage of Australia’s wide open training ranges to launch Type 12 surface-to-ship (anti-ship) missiles as well as Type 03 surface-to-air (anti-aircraft) missiles. They seldom do this sort of training in Japan. 

And the GSDF brought other units from the Western Army, Eastern Army, and Northern Army. They even included the artillery training detachment from GSDF’s Fuji Schools. This gave them practice and also exposure to operations with foreign militaries and in a “foreign” environment.

It’s come a long way

By any measure, the JSDF has come a long way in recent years. A little over a decade ago, Japan was afraid to even deploy forces to its own southern islands.

The idea of sending the JSDF thousands of miles from Japan to conduct combat training, and with a collection of foreign militaries, would have given many Japanese politicians and the Asahi Shimbun editorial board the vapors. 

On the United States side, State Department Japan Hands ー and more than a few people at USINDOPACOM ー could have told you it was all impossible and would never happen. And beyond that, the Chinese wouldn’t like it so don’t let it.

So it’s great the Japanese military went to Australia. But it’s bad the Japanese military went to Australia.

Huh? Here’s the problem. 

Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force participated in the Talisman Saber joint beach landing exercises in Australia. Photo: via Talisman Saber 2023 Twitter

It is impressive, indeed. One almost rejoices to see what the once insular JSDF is doing, and the scale of it all in a major multilateral exercise. 

But they need to do this sort of training up closer to home – in and around Japan.

That’s where the trouble is coming and the fight will happen. 

The problem isn’t the JSDF. Rather, one fairly notes that Japanese officialdom – including some defense bureaucrats – are too timid, as is their wont. They don’t have a sense of urgency about what’s coming their way.  

Yes, they understand China (and Russia and North Korea) are a threat, and a scary one at that. But doing something about it? That’s a different story.

This writer will be more impressed when Japanese officialdom and society allow their own JSDF (particularly the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade) to train in their own maritime terrain. “Key maritime terrain” is what it’s called in military lingo. And that means training with the Americans and the Australian Defense Force together. 

There’s been some useful but relatively limited training between the US Marines and GSDF. But it’s not what it should be.

“NIMBY” (not in my backyard) is still strong. 

Catching up to the shifting public mood

This writer thinks Tokyo is misreading the shifting mood and views of the Japanese public in general. And people in Okinawa Prefecture, including the Sakishima Shoto, in particular. 

Too many pundits and bureaucrats are clinging to old, worn-out positions vis-a-vis the JSDF, the US-Japan alliance and deterrence. Those old positions are losing support, especially among working-age people. 

One supposes Japanese policymakers feel comfortable in being slow to adjust since they have an insurance policy with the Americans in Japan and nearby. That buys them time to make decisions, they think. 

Anyone involved in Japan-US military and defense matters over the years would recognize the following statement: “They just seek our assurances that we have their back from time to time and then do just enough to keep us engaged.”

If the Americans push too hard for real and useful training with the Japanese ー much less a combined Japan-US operational headquarters ー Tokyo will say they are saber-rattling and being provocative. 

Of course, plenty of people will also claim it’s all just “too sensitive” politically for Japan ー and they’re doing their best. So don’t complain.

However, expecting the Americans to die on Japan’s behalf while Japan hasn’t done enough for itself (and for its partners) is also just “too sensitive” politically. But for the Americans.

Ground Self-Defense Force camp is shown in August 2022 under construction in Ishigaki, Okinawa Prefecture. Photo: Kyodo

Defense documents are just the first step

Sometimes one hears that since Japan’s three foundational defense documents were rewritten in December 2022, “counterstrike capability” (long-range missiles) are on order. Along with it, one hears that defense spending is set to double over five years – it’s “mission accomplished.”

Not quite. Now you need a military that can fight and an industry that can produce what’s needed. Along with it, how about a society that knows it’s got a direct stake in the matter and acts like it?

That requires a sense of urgency – that a government must have and create in society writ large.

Some people have that sense of urgency. Some don’t. 

Nobukatsu Kanehara, a former national security official and adviser to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal recently on whether Japan would help the United States defend Taiwan:

“We are building up our army, navy and air force, as well as space and cyber capabilities. Maybe in five years when our new shape is clearer, we will have to talk about new roles and missions in the region.”

Let’s get this straight. Mr Kanehara is talking about waiting five years before deciding what Japan might or might not do. In the meantime, Japan expects the Americans to take care of things and die on Japan’s behalf.  

That’s not exactly a vote getter in Washington. Some Japanese are embarrassed by this notion. But Kanehara reflects a strain of thought in much of Japan’s older “elite” foreign policy class. And many on the US side take him as gospel, rather than saying to the Japanese, “Wait a minute! We need you to do this, this, and that.”

A sense of urgency

There is no time to waste.

Sadly, as is the case with many examples in post-Cold War Japan, something traumatic or semi-traumatic has to happen to bring about change, even if that means taking the first punch.

And that assumes you can get up off the mat, and aren’t down for good. So JSDF ought to do what it did in Australia, but do it up in Japan. Things are that urgent.

Xi Jinping Senkaku defense panel defense boost Japan China maritime. predictions Quad Senkaku Islands
The largest China Coast Guard vessel yet, equipped with a 76mm gun, was caught navigating the contiguous zone around the Senkaku Islands, Ishgaki City, Sakishima Shoto, in Okinawa Prefecture in November 2022. Photo: Provided by the 11th Regional Coast Guard Headquarters

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America.

This article was originally published by JAPAN Forward and is republished with permission.

Continue Reading

Ancient lizard-like species discovered in Australia

Palaeontologist Lachlan Hart poses with the Temnospondyli fossilRichard Freeman

Scientists have identified a new species of amphibian that occupied Australia some 247 million years ago.

The finding ends a mystery that has captivated researchers since the 90s, when the creature’s fossilised remains were found by a retired chicken farmer in New South Wales.

Less than 10 fossils of the lizard-like species have been identified globally.

Experts say the discovery may “rewrite the evolution of amphibians in Australia”.

It was a broken garden wall at his home in Umina – a roughly 90-minute drive north of Sydney – that led to Mihail Mihaildis’s discovery of the extraordinary fossil, almost three decades ago.

The retired chicken farmer had purchased a 1.6 tonne sandstone slab to fix the problem. But as he sliced through the stone’s outer layers, the immortalised outline of an unknown creature revealed itself.

Mr Mihaildis contacted the Australian Museum in Sydney about his discovery, and in 1997 he handed the fossil over.

It was there in a climate-controlled display room that Lachlan Hart – the palaeontologist who would ultimately decode its petrified remains – first encountered it as a child.

“I was obsessed with dinosaurs… and so 12-year-old me saw that fossil on display back in 1997. And then 25 years later it became part of my PhD, which is insane,” Mr Hart says.

Mr Hart says it was “dumb luck” that led to his team, which was studying life in Australia’s Triassic era some 250 million years ago, being given the fossil to identify.

Remarkably, the mould contains a “nearly complete skeleton”, which is almost unheard of, Mr Hart explains.

“It’s got the head and the body attached, and the fossilisation of the creature’s skin and fatty tissues around the outside of its body – all of that makes this a really rare find.”

From that data, Mr Hart and his colleagues estimate the amphibian was approximately 1.5m in length and that it had a salamander-shaped body. The newly identified species has been named Arenaepeton supinatus, which means “sand creeper on its back” in Latin.

Scientists say the carnivorous amphibian once lived in the freshwater lakes and streams of Sydney. This particular species belongs to the Temnospondyli family: resilient amphibians that survived two of the earth’s five mass extinction events, including a series of volcanic eruptions that eradicated 70-80% of all dinosaurs roughly 250 million years ago.

Only three other fossils capturing the Temnospondyli species have been successfully identified in Australia.

The findings, which were published Tuesday, show that “Australia was a great place for animals to evolve and find refuge after mass extinctions,” Mr Hart says.

The extraordinary fossil will go on full-time display at the Australian Museum later this year.

Related Topics

Continue Reading

Royal prodigal son’s return stirs up Thailand

Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, 42, the second-eldest son of Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn arrives at the Foundation for Slum Child Care supported by the Royal Family, in Bangkok, Thailand, August 8, 2023.Reuters

This week people in Thailand have been distracted from the endless wrangling to form a new government by the unexpected arrival, from the US, of a cheery-looking, 42 year-old Thai lawyer, visiting the country of his birth for the first time in 27 years.

Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse is the second of four estranged sons of King Vajiralongkorn. Until now they were widely believed to have been stripped of their royal status and to have no place in the line of succession to the throne.

But the succession became problematic after the king’s eldest daughter Princess Bajrakitiyabha, the most plausible heir, collapsed last December. She is still in a coma and seems unlikely to recover.

For years there has been quiet talk in Thailand about the possibility of one of the estranged sons being rehabilitated and brought back to play a royal role.

Mr Vacharaesorn’s unannounced visit could be the start of such a rehabilitation, although there has been no official statement from the palace.

He is one of five children born to King Vajiralongkorn’s second wife Sujiranee, a former actress whom he divorced in 1996. Mr Vacharaesorn and his three brothers, who were at school in UK at the time, were in effect banished from Thailand with their mother, and have lived in the US since then. His sister, Princess Sirivanavari was brought back to Thailand to live with her father.

In the past the four sons occasionally published letters appealing for reconciliation with their father, and to be allowed to return to Thailand, to no effect.

Mr Vacharaesorn has spent his first three days in Bangkok partly as a tourist, rediscovering the city, visiting temples, enjoying Thai food and riding in a tuk-tuk. He told journalists coming back was like a dream come true for him.

But has also had what appear to be official engagements, meeting Thailand’s most senior religious figure, the Supreme Patriarch of the Buddhist Sangha who is appointed by his father, and visiting a childcare centre sponsored by the palace. Many Thais will interpret this as showcasing his potential for royal duties.

Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, 42, the second-eldest son of Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn visits the Foundation for Slum Child Care supported by the Royal Family, in Bangkok, Thailand, August 8, 2023.

Reuters

Back in the US he has been the most visible of the four sons, very active in the Thai community there and openly supportive of the Thai monarchy. He appears to be the one who is most suited to and interested in taking a higher profile role in the royal family.

Until her collapse last year Princess Bajrakitiyabha was seen as the most accomplished of the king’s children who are living in Thailand. She is a lawyer who had worked with the UN and been Thailand’s ambassador to Austria.

The King’s youngest child, Prince Dipangkorn, who is 18, is believed to suffer from some learning difficulties, and it was widely assumed that Princess Bajrakitiyabha would play the role of regent, or even become queen, on the death of her father. Thai succession law leaves it to the monarch to designate his successor, which King Vajiralongkorn has not yet done.

So could Mr Vacharaesorn, a successful and popular figure back in the US, fit the bill? It is far too soon to say.

More likely this will be seen as an exploratory first visit, with further trips in the future to see how he copes in the public spotlight, and with the rigid protocol and sometimes Byzantine politics of Thailand’s royal court.

And it is impossible to know what King Vajiralongkorn’s views are on this. People in his inner circle have been known to go in and out of favour quite suddenly, sometimes disappearing from public view.

Whoever organised this return of a prodigal son will be doing so with understandable caution.

Related Topics

Continue Reading

AI-powered Valkyrie drone designed for swarming China

The United States Air Force (USAF) has just tested an advanced autonomous drone showcasing new cutting-edge technologies, an artificial intelligence-powered flex of how the US may fight an air war with China over Taiwan.

On July 25, the XQ-58A Valkyrie drone successfully carried out aerial combat tasks autonomously using new AI-driven software, the Warzone reported.

The test, launched from Eglin Air Base in Florida, lasted three hours and was part of a tiered approach of training algorithms millions of times in simulations before conducting other testing.

The drone drill reflected the USAF’s phased approach to develop, mature and build trust in AI-driven autonomous capabilities and to migrate them from the laboratory into more operational environments.

The USAF Research Laboratory developed the algorithms used for the test, which The Warzone noted is part of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, a critical component of the so-called Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) modernization initiative.

The artificial intelligence/machine learning test reportedly established a multi-layer safety framework, solving a tactically relevant challenge during airborne operations, The Warzone reported.

While the USAF has not provided details about the specific tasks involved in the test, it did stress that there will be a human operator in the loop for employing highly advanced autonomous drones.

Asia Times noted in January 2022 that the emergence of loyal wingman drones such as the  XQ-58A Valkyrie reflects a requirement for mass-produced and expendable aircraft to be used in a potential conflict with China.

Expendable drones give a numbers advantage to their operators, acting as mass decoys, a swarming force or a force multiplier complementing crewed aircraft.

A XQ-58A Valkyrie drone alongside F-35A and F-22 fighters. Photo: Facebook

Loyal wingman drones can also extend the sensor ranges of stealthy crewed aircraft such as the NGAD, F-35 and F-22, operating in areas deemed too dangerous for the latter due to advanced air defenses or aerial threats.

They can also extend weapons ranges by designating targets with onboard target designators while the launching crewed aircraft stays out of range of enemy air defenses while remaining electronically silent.

The results of the 25 July tests could speed the development of drone swarms, which may prove decisive in a Taiwan conflict.

In February 2023, Asia Times reported about the US Department of Defense’s (DOD) low-profile Autonomous Multi-Domain Adaptive Swarms-of-Swarms (AMASS) project to develop autonomous drone swarms that can be launched from sea, air and land to overwhelm enemy air defenses.

AMASS aims to develop the capability to launch and command thousands of autonomous drones to destroy an enemy’s defenses and critical assets, including air defenses, artillery pieces, missile launchers, command and control posts and radar stations.

Drone swarms can flood enemy radar scopes with multiple targets, forcing the latter to waste limited missiles and ammunition, revealing their positions for crewed platforms, armed drones and loitering munitions to move in for the kill.

Machine learning and AI also allow drone swarms to look at targets from multiple angles, cross-check various targeting data streams and suggest the best point of attack.

Caitlin Lee and other writers noted in May 2023 for Aerospace America that AI will be a game changer for air combat since it reduces the risk to pilots’ lives and the cost of air superiority.

The writers argued that AI may eventually do everything that a human pilot can, noting that the US military is already experimenting with AI in dogfighting, the most challenging aspect of aerial combat.

Lee and the other writers cited the US Defense Advanced Research Project’s Agency (DARPA) Air Combat Evolution, which pitted a highly-experienced fighter pilot versus an AI-driven fighter in a series of simulated aerial contests.

They noted that the AI fighter scored cannon kills against the human pilot every time since it could aim its cannon with superhuman accuracy from seemingly impossible attack angles, outmatching the human pilot in a classical, close-range, turning dogfight.

However, Lee and the other writers note that while AI excels in black-and-white situations, air combat in the real world will present many grey areas requiring human judgment for the foreseeable future.

They argue that no matter how fast AI advances, human judgment will always be needed in making high-risk decisions in dynamic air combat situations.

Artist’s concept of a drone swarm. Credit: C4ISRNET

A human-AI combination may be the ideal solution, as it combines human flexibility and moral judgment with the precision and reliability of automation.

Operator-in-the-loop systems architecture is still needed to avoid unintended incidents and assuage moral concerns about AI deciding whether to use lethal force. It may also prevent autonomous drones from going against their operators through flawed logic, software glitches or enemy interference.

While the emergence of increasingly autonomous drones may herald a more significant shift toward the eventual “dronification” of warfare, humans will still be needed to devise crucial concepts, strategy and tactics.

Continue Reading