Analysis: China treads carefully in global trade disputes, eyes Southeast Asia as key market amid Western tariff pressures

A year-long anti-dumping investigation into American goods of rape was revealed on Monday by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. &nbsp,

” Canada has ignored WTO ( World Trade Organization ) principles and violated its pledges at the WTO”, said a department spokeswoman, adding that authorities had “requested sessions” with their American counterparts over the problem. &nbsp,

The spokesperson called this a classic unilateral and trade protectionist act, which seriously impairs the rules-based multilateral trading system and disrupts global industrial and supply chains for ( Chinese ) EVs as well as steel and aluminum products. &nbsp,

Economics doctor Dr. Chen predicted that Canada’s trade guidelines will continue to closely resemble those of the US. &nbsp,

” Canada will only look to the US,” according to the statement.” If the US does reduce some of the tariffs that China has imposed on imported EVs and other goods, Canada might do the same.” Otherwise, Canada will be just as hard as the US on China” .&nbsp,

Commenting on the condition, Ms Garcia-Herrero expressed concerns about Beijing’s activities. &nbsp,

China” ca n’t use retaliation as strictly or as powerfully as it thinks,” she said, noting that Beijing may have also played a role in previous trade disputes and tensions with the US, Australia, and South Korea.

For example, China in 2020 had imposed restrictions and obligations on American goods, when political disputes with Australia turned into a full-blown business war. &nbsp,

Despite ending the three decades of punishing levies and removing the last remaining taxes on wine in March, experts fear that producers will not be willing to put all their hopes on a seemingly attractive industry in the near future.

” China thinks it has a lot of leverage, but it backfires because states start fearing China, and so they want to de-risk”, she said. &nbsp,

Although China’s trade restrictions have caused significant declines in American exports of the intended goods, many of the impacted Australian sectors have found new markets in nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand.

And a Beijing response that is too stern could backfire, adding to” the West’s populist outlook on China” and” a great level of fear of China,” according to Mr. Daniel Senger, managing partner at the Shanghai-based world consulting firm Wilton Partners. That adds to “impulsive” reactions when it comes to laws on China, specifically from politicians seeking company, he noted.

China believes its EVs are badly treated and contrary to WTO rules because they represent” a quantitative advantage in terms of lower cost and higher sophistication” to what the West is now present, he told CNA. &nbsp,

Beijing appears to know that its bear warrior diplomacy was widely despised and yet disliked by many trade partners, particularly in developed nations. ” &nbsp,

According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on August 22, the EU may work with China “in the same way to discuss a proper negotiation and avoid escalations,” while the China Chamber of Commerce has stated that such measures may increase trade tensions between China and the EU and give a bad signal to international cooperation and natural development efforts.

One possible middle ground could be the development of Chinese EV output in Europe and the production of lower-end, inexpensive vehicles that Europe and North America cannot possibly afford, Mr. Senger adds.

So Beijing may be cautious this time around and might even choose a” lighter “approach, says SMU’s Mr Gao.

A SOUTHEAST ASIA SILVER LINING &nbsp,

According to experts, any business war between China and the West had unavoidably had repercussions, and one part would want to profit is Southeast Asia. &nbsp,

China has been the country’s top trading partner for 14 consecutive years, and US industry level between nations surpassed US$ 722 billion in 2022. &nbsp,

Southeast Asian nations might benefit in a number of ways. &nbsp,

” The first is to capture spillover volume ( from China ) at low prices,” said Mr Warwick Powell, an adjunct professor at the Queensland University of Technology. &nbsp,

The second is that Chinese businesses could use their presence in the region as a platform for exporting to the EU and North America. This has been the pattern already.”

In the wake of a potential tariff war, the region could experience both positive and negative effects. &nbsp,

The natural choice, or the simplest choice, would be Southeast Asia, according to Dr. Chen, if the sanctions against China are so severe that they will force more Chinese and foreign capitals with existing ones to relocate some of their production capacities abroad. &nbsp,

According to law professor Mr. Gao, new Chinese EVs could also be exported from these Southeast Asian nations to the EU and the US.

However, this might also present challenges for regional EV manufacturers, who may struggle to compete. &nbsp,

Chinese manufacturers accounted for 70 % of all EV sales in Southeast Asia last year, with automaker BYD holding the lead, according to Hong Kong-based Counterpoint Research.

VinFast Auto, a Vietnamese manufacturer of electric vehicles, is struggling to gain ground in the fiercely competitive EV market. It delivered just 9, 689 cars in the first three months of the year, well off the pace to meet its annual 100, 000 target. Last year, some 34, 855 vehicles were sold, most of which went to related parties.

But China is also facing resistance in the region as it tries to pivot and direct more exports to nations in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia, a growing global powerhouse and Southeast Asia’s largest economy, has been eyeing heavy duties on textile imports. Thailand has also expressed concern about the recent influx of cheap goods from China, claiming that industry groups have struggled to compete.

In August, Malaysia launched its own anti-dumping investigations into imports of polyethylene terephthalate and other products from China.

In a statement released on August 9, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry stated that the government would impose a provisional anti-dumping duty at the rate necessary to stop the domestic market from being further damaged.