It is repulsive job to be the man who constantly complains about a near-disaster. If anyone listens to you, and the disaster happens, you’re a useless Cassandra.
If anyone listens to you and the devastation luckily does n’t occur, you’re viewed as a stupid. if people; would Many people will still believe your warning was incorrect and the precautions were needless if they listen to you and taking action to effectively prevent the disaster.
The only way you’ll always come out looking clever is if the disaster does occur, and people follow your caution in time to alleviate its impact. You are at that place; Gandalf. However, being Gandalf means that a disaster is actually occurring, so you should n’t expect it. hope for.
Despite this, I think it ’s our duty to warn the world of impending disaster if we think we see one coming.
I have been concerned about a big war between the US and China since the later 2010s, when conflicts increased in the South China Sea. I wrote a piece for Bloomberg ; in 2018 saying that the risk of battle was being ignored. I felt as though I was yelling into the vacuum.
Since the crisis, and particularly since the war in Ukraine and Gaza erupted, those concerns have gone conventional. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase and perhaps the most important businessman in the nation, is just one instance. believes that the earth is entering a political crisis unlike anything since World War 2:
The nation’s most prominent banker, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, told shareholders Monday that he continues to believe the US market to be adaptable and develop this time. However, he is concerned about political happenings, including the conflict in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas warfare, as well as US social fragmentation, may be creating an atmosphere that “may very well be creating dangers that could eclipse anything since World War II. ”
The remarks came in an monthly investor letter from Dimon…
“America’s global leadership role is being challenged outside by other nations and inside by our polarized electorate, ” Dimon said. We must find ways to put our differences aside and work together in the name of democracy with other European countries. During this time of tremendous crises, uniting to protect our important rights, including free business, is paramount. ”
He is, of course, entirely correct.
The major one is implicit: World War 3, but Dimon’s letter mentions the war in Ukraine and Gaza.
If China and the US go to combat, it’ll make what’s happening today in East Europe and the Middle East seem like child’s play – not just because the troops involved may be larger, but because the existing war in East Europe and the Middle East would probably grow into local wars as well.
You can bet that Dimon is thinking about World War 3, as are many others, even though he does n’t talk about it. As I see it, the simple truth that not many people are talking about the threat represents information that we’re also not taking it seriously.
And because Americans do n’t discuss it, there is n’t the urgency to act; would something about it. One of our excellent abilities as a society has always been that we start shouting about issues before they become serious, giving us time to prepare. We are n’t preparing because we are n’t shouting right now.
So although I’m only an unimportant little finance blogger, I did do my best to cry about the likelihood of an oncoming crisis.
Let’s start with a frightful historic analogy.
When did World War 2 begin?
Americans typically think about World War 2 for about four times; we from soon 1941 through 1945, which they participated in.
Those decades were indeed the most dramatic and dangerous of the war, by much, but the battle actually began earlier. Although the standard launch deadline is September 1, 1939, it is simple to refute the claim that the war started much earlier.
Some scholars view WW1 and WW2 as one continuous conflict, but I don’t think that actually makes sense — there was certainly a pause in world war deaths in the 1920s. Additionally, there was no real South Asian drama in World War One. But let’s set that view away.
However, there were a number of issues that lasted until World War 2, and finally merged with that conflict as a result of tributaries evaporating into a wonderful river. Let’s do a quick timetable of these.
in; 1931-32, Japan seized Manchuria from China, which increasingly sparked a larger conflict between the two countries. The Chinese war and job likewise set Japan on a path toward militarism, bringing to power the regime that would eventually sue WW2 itself.
in; 1935-36, fascist Italy invaded and taken Ethiopia. The League of Nations halfheartedly failed in an attempt to stop the war, which caused the League to be discredited and the post-WW1 order to suffer greatly. That emboldened the fascist powers. The Ethiopian opposition to Italian rule would eventually turn out to be a minor theater of World War Two.
from; Japan and the Soviet Union from 1935 to 1939; fought an undeclared border war, ultimately culminating in major battles in 1939, which the USSR won. That resulted in Japan attempting to form a coalition with Nazi Germany, which ultimately resulted in the Soviets joining the Japanese occupation at the end of World War Two.
( The realization that Japan could n’t defeat the Soviets and conquer Siberian oil fields also prompted Japan to try to take Southeast Asian oil instead, when it needed oil to prosecute its war against China; This led to the Pacific War and Pearl Harbor. )
from; 1936 through 1939, Nazi Germany, fascist Italy, and the Soviet Union fought each other in a proxy war : the Spanish Civil War. Units from all three powers officially or unofficially engaged in the fighting. When the Nationalists won, it further enshrined the fascist rulers.
in; In what is known as , Japan invaded the rest of China in 1937. the Second Sino-Japanese War. This became a significant theater of World War Two, resulting in almost as many fatalities as the Nazi invasion of the USSR.
It also prompted Japan to go to war with Britain and the US, in order to seize the oil fields of Indonesia to support the invasion of China. ( It seems to me that the fact that we do n’t think this was the start of World War II sounds like pure eurocentrism. )
in; 1939, before the Soviet Union joined World War 2, it invaded Finland in what’s known as the Winter War, securing some of the territory at great cost. This war would continue all the way through WW2 itself.
There were also no fewer than six wars in the 1930s, which ultimately led to World War 2 itself! But even after the war officially began with Hitler’s invasion of Poland in The alliances regrouped in their final configuration in September 1939, and fighting was at its height.
Hitler’s invasion of Poland was actually a Soviet Union-total invasion Even as the Nazis attacked from the west, the Soviets attacked from the east and seized part of Poland, having agreed with the Nazis beforehand to divide the country up.
The Nazis and the Soviets looked more like partners than adversaries at that time until Hitler betrayed Stalin and attacked in 1941, despite only having waged a proxy war against one another in Spain.
Britain and France declared war on Germany after it invaded Poland, but for eight months, nothing really happened; This was known as the Phoney War. That pause came to an end when Hitler invaded and conquered France and began bombing Britain in 1940.
At that point, WW2 was in full swing, but the violence was still fairly localized and fairly limited — only about two hundred thousand people died in those campaigns, which sounds like a lot but was only about 0. 3 % of the total deaths from the war.
It was n’t until ;1941 that WW2 became what we Americans remember it as. The Nazis attacked the Soviet Union and Japan attacked the US at the same time, bringing the world’s two most powerful nations into the fray, causing many casualties, sealing the Axis ‘ fate, and forming the grand alliance that would form the foundation of the postwar world order.
So if you were living at any point in 1931 through 1940, you would already be witnessing conflicts that would eventually turn into the bloodiest, most cataclysmic war that humanity has yet known— but you might not realize it. You would be in the Second World War’s shadow, but unless you could; far-sighted predictions, you would n’t know what horrors lurked in the near future.
We might be standing in the shadow of World War 3 in case the parallel is n’t too overt. right now. Future bloggers might list the wars in Ukraine and Gaza in a timeline similar to the one I just gave if World War 3.
Or we might not be in the foothills of WW3. There is still a good chance that we can avoid a more destructive, more catastrophic war and instead choose to engage in a protracted standoff. Cold War 2– instead. However, I wo n’t lie: the outlook appears to be deteriorating. One big reason is that China appears to be ramping up its support for Russia.
China is currently fighting Europe through proxy war.
The Ukraine War is a proxy war. This is not because Ukraine is a “proxy ” between the US and Europe, in the sense that we instruct Ukrainians on what to do. We do not. However, the US and Europe are assisting Ukraine in its defense to keep Russia stifled because we all know that if Ukraine does, the Baltics, Moldova, and others will follow. eventually Poland are most likely to be Putin’s next menu item.
In fact, although the US has done a lot to help Ukraine, Europe as a whole has done even more:
Given that Europe’s GDP is lower than that of the US, it has increased even more. And since the US’ aid has been mostly military – which is basically the US paying its own defense contractors – Europe’s aid has been more of an economic sacrifice.
Additionally, Europe is paying the price of the Russian gas cutoff, not the US. Ukraine’s fate is also much more important to Europe than to the US. If Ukraine survives, Putin will likely begin to destroy Europe, not to mention that Ukraine is likely to be able to join the EU. The US’ lesser degree of direct interest in the outcome of the conflict is probably one reason why Ukraine aid is now bogged down in America even as Europe’s assistance increases.
So it makes sense to view the Ukraine War as a European proxy conflict against Russia. What is more ominous is that it also makes more sense to consider it as a ; Chinese proxy conflict against Europe.
A little over a year ago, there were reports that China was sending lethal aid to Russia. Having faith in these reports, I concluded – perhaps prematurely – that China had gone “all in” on Russia’s military effort.
It’s not hard to know how much China is doing to give Russia drones and other items under the table, despite the fact that some of the reports were later walked back. But now, a year later, there are multiple credible reports that China is ramping up aid in various forms.
For instance , the US is now claiming that China is providing geospatial intelligence and material assistance to Russia. e. telling Russia where Ukrainian forces are ( to allow them to attack them ):
The US is warning allies that China has stepped up its support for Russia, including by providing geospatial intelligence, to help Moscow in its war against Ukraine.
According to those with knowledge of the situation, China has provided Russia with satellite imagery for military purposes as well as microelectronics and machine tools for tanks as a result of ongoing military integration between the two countries.
China ’s support also includes optics, propellants to be used in missiles and increased space cooperation, one of the people said.
White House National Security Council spokesman Adrienne Watson said that President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping had a conversation about China’s support for the Russian defense industry base, including machine tools, optics, nitrocellulose, microelectronics, and turbojet engines.
This is very similar to the aid that Europe and the US are providing Ukraine. Additionally, the US offers material and production assistance as well as geospatial intelligence. If reports are correct — and this time, they come from the US government as well as from major news organizations— then China is now playing the same role for Russia that Europe and the US have been playing for Ukraine.
In other words, the conflict in Ukraine now appears to be a proxy war between China and Europe. Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, definitely thinks this is the case:
The head of NATO has warned that an “alliance of authoritarian powers ” is working more closely with Western democracies. [Stoltenberg said that ] the world is now “much more dangerous, much more unpredictable, and much more violent]… ”
What does it mean that China is currently fighting Europe through proxy war.? Several things.
First of all, it implies that the US’s influence on the conflict is much more limited than we might assume. Americans like to believe that we’re still the hegemon we were in 1999 — that we can just stretch out our mighty hand to stop any war, and that wars therefore continue only when we want them to.
This is a complete fantasy. Even if America never sends another penny, Europe will continue to support Ukraine, because for them the conflict is existential ( even if the Germans don’t quite realize it yet ). Emmanuel Macron is the man, and Europe may eventually face Russia directly. already talking about this openly.
And Vladimir Putin, who is encouraged by Chinese production and intelligence support and who has staked his entire existence on the conquest of territory in East Europe, will have no reason to halt fighting, despite what the US says. The US could push Ukraine to cede land for peace, and it probably would n’t matter, because Putin wants all of Ukraine, and then he wants other European countries too.
China has mostly lobbed threats and bellicose rhetoric against Europe through its various propaganda proxies:
In other words, the Ukraine war is now a proxy war between major powers that is almost totally out of America’s control. That indicates a lack of global stability.
In fact, US actions to try to deter China from backing Russia might just end up widening the conflict. Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary, is threatening to put sanctions on Chinese banks:
The US is prepared to; sanction If Chinese banks and companies support Russia’s armed forces with , as well as Beijing’s leadership; the invasion of Ukraine, US Treasury Secretary ;Janet Yellen said last Monday…
She claimed that China has the right to establish a relationship with Russia, noting that the United States views a large portion of trade between the two nations. S. as non-problematic But the provision of military aid from Beijing to Moscow could trigger sanctions.
Of course, since Trump has already stated , the election of Trump later this year could prevent that. conciliatory sentiments toward Russia and has recently shown some signs of ; wanting to accommodate China as well. But if Trump’s America withdraws into isolationism — or worse, collapses into civil conflict — it will simply give a green light to the authoritarian powers to carry out more conquests, as the Axis was emboldened in the 1930s.
The US would eventually have to rush back in after the fact, as it did in World War II, or suffer as a result from being relegated to the status of a failed, friendless middle power.
Asia is a tinderbox
Naturally, if and when the US and China declare war, World War 3 will actually start. Almost everyone thinks this would happen if and when China attacks Taiwan, but in fact there are several other flashpoints that are just as scary and which many people seem to be overlooking.
First, there is the South China Sea, where China has used various “gray zone ” bullying tactics to pressure the Philippines into giving up its maritime territory. Ian Ellis has a thorough list of these:
The US is a formal treaty ally of the Philippines and has vowed to uphold its obligations and protect its allies; against potential threats.
Then there is the ever-present threat of North Korea, which ; some experts believe is seriously considering restarting the Korean War. That would trigger a US defense of South Korea, which in turn might bring in China, as it did in the 1950s.
The border between China and India should also be mentioned. China has recently reaffirmed its assertion to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, calling it “South Tibet ” and declaring; that the area was part of China since ancient times. Of course, India has vehemently rejected this idea. An India-China border war might not start World War 3, but the US. would undoubtedly try to support India in its struggle against China, as ; it did in 2022.
There are several flashpoints in Asia that could lead to World War 3 right now, even as Europe and China become more deeply entrenched in a proxy war. Asia is an absolute tinderbox right now.
China is improving its readiness for war. The US is not.
Most Americans are still focused on domestic conflict, but a few Americans like Jamie Dimon are starting to recognize this. As a result, America has n’t mustered the urgency necessary to resuscitate its desiccated defense-industrial base. China is building up its military massively, but the US is lagging behind. This is from a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies:
The US defense industrial base…lacks the capacity, responsiveness, flexibility, and surge capability to meet the U. S. military ’s production needs as China ramps up defense industrial production. Without making necessary adjustments, the United States runs the risk of sagging deterrence and undermining its ability to fight China and other rivals. A significant part of the problem is that the US defense ecosystem remains on a peacetime footing, despite a protracted war in Ukraine, an active war in the Middle East, and growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific in such areas as the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula.
There are numerous pressing issues facing America.
First, the Chinese defense industrial base is increasingly on a wartime footing and, in some areas, outpacing the US defense industrial base…Chinese defense companies…are producing a growing quantity and quality of land, maritime, air, space, and other capabilities. China is investing heavily in munitions and acquiring advanced weapons and equipment five to six times more quickly than the United States. China is now the world’s largest shipbuilder, with a shipbuilding capacity that is roughly 230 times that of the United States. One of China ’s large shipyards, such as Jiangnan Shipyard, has more capacity than all US shipyards combined, according to US Navy estimates.
Second, the US defense industrial base is still grappling with a number of production issues, including a lack of urgency in revitalizing the defense industrial ecosystem. There is still a shortage of ammunition and other weapons systems, which would make for a drawn-out war in places like the Indo-Pacific. Supply chain challenges also remain serious, and today’s workforce is inadequate to meet the demands of the defense industrial base.
Chinese defense industry is now more focused on the wartime. ” If that is n’t a clear enough warning, I don’t know what would be. ;; You have now been warned!
Everybody who will listen needs to be yelling these warnings out loud. Instead, many Americans ( including in the US Navy ) seem intent on hiding the issues out of shame:
As the Navy’s largest US trade show gets underway, officers in charge of the service’s marquee shipbuilding programs won’t offer the usual briefings with reporters and analysts about them…That break from the tradition…comes just days after the Navy announced that Four of its most crucial shipbuilding initiatives are years behind schedule.
The Navy’s top admiral and civilian secretary have still not responded to questions about a damning Navy report released Tuesday outlining the sweeping failure of the Navy and its industrial partners to make expected progress on two submarine programs, an aircraft carrier and a new class of frigates…
The Navy and Pentagon are investing billions in modernizing and upgrading shipyards in an effort to build and repair ships more quickly and with China, with delays of one to three years, depending on the program. Beijing’s navy has already surpassed the US in size.
However, the service’s plans have been thrown into uncertainty due to supply chain issues caused by Covid and the Navy’s insistence on changing the design of its ships even as workers build them.
Aware of the issues for years, the Navy is still unsure how to fix them…
According to two people with knowledge of the situation, Navy leaders instructed the program managers not to hold their public briefings because the conference approached the release of the shipbuilding study [. ]
I can assure you that someone in the Navy’s public relations department believes that simply refusing to talk to reporters about these issues indicates that the issues have been resolved.
This is typical of the ostrich-like mentality that I see among a very wide variety of Americans, from Congressional staffers to tech moguls to news reporters and pundits, regarding the imminent threat of war with China. However, refusing to discuss issues does n’t solve them. it simply makes us less prepared to deal with them.
China’s leaders, on the other hand, are not operating under such comforting illusions. In addition to their massive military buildup, they are taking various other actions that might or might not entail purposeful preparation for war, but definitely have the effect ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; of making China better prepared should a war break out.
For instance, China’s dominance of the battery and electric vehicle industries protects them from a potential blockade of their oil supplies via the ; Straits of Malacca.
Moreover, Xi has commanded the nation; improve its food self-sufficiency; since it was; 94 % self-sufficient in food back in 2000, this is probably not an impossible task. In the event of a war, that will protect China from any potential food import restrictions.
As for finance, China has been stockpiling gold and urging trading partners to conduct business in Yuan more frequently. That should help neuter threats of financial sanctions, like the one Janet Yellen just issued.
Again, I’m not sure which of these measures represents deliberate preparation for a great-power conflict. But they all definitely make China better-prepared. China is resolving its biggest problems in fuel, food, and finance, despite the US’s best efforts to ignore its glaring inability to build ships, missiles, and ammunition.
The possibility that revisionist great powers will launch a world war in order to overturn the global order is now a lot higher than it was a few years ago, and arguably even higher than one a long time ago. Americans need to be screaming our heads off about this, so that we can start planning for this disaster instead of allowing ourselves to be blindsided by it today.
We need to be talking about this on national TV, in the New York Times, on podcasts, and on whatever social media the CCP still does n’t control. What I mostly hear right now is a deafening, horrible silence.
This article; was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion With your kind permission, Substack and is republished. Read the original and become a Noahopinion subscriber here.