Xi Jinping, the president of China, is making position trips to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia between April 14 and April 18. It is Xi’s first outside visit this month, following the Central Conference on Work Related to Neighboring Countries held in Beijing from April 8 to 9. When asked what the main point of the meeting was, Renmin University’s Professor Jin Canrong, a well-known Chinese analyst frequently cited in Western media, stated to the Chinese website” Observer” ( guancha.cn ) that Beijing would talk to its Asian trading partners to counteract the effects of US tariffs. According to Jin, China will keep investing in Asia as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, but it will also increase domestic need to purchase more from its Eastern trading partners. ASEAN nations could buy Chinese state securities denominated in RMB, and China could use the money to buy more, replacing to some extent the US need. Jin’s remarks are above:
This conference on work related to neighboring nations was held in response to the extreme global condition brought on by the United States ‘ desire to impose tariffs. It showed that we hope to make for work a still higher goal in our country’s global strategy.
China and the United States are currently at odds with one another. China’s ties to its neighbors have grown even more significant in this regard. Constantly developing and maintaining such relations has distinct and far-reaching importance for China.  ,
We can keep our nation’s good placement in the Sino-US tactical game as long as we can perform a good job of home work and neighborhood diplomacy.
Over the past few years, despite the numerous global issues and very difficult circumstances, China and its surrounding regions have remained relatively stable.  ,
China’s surrounding areas will develop into a unique “island of balance” in the future and will experience robust economic advancement momentum. The area will see outstanding prospects and excellent value in the future.
The populations of the nations that surround China are also sizable, with groups exceeding 1.4 billion as well. Additionally, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have a large population, with 290 million, 250 million, and 180 million people, both. China and its surrounding countries account for about 56 % of the country’s total population.
Nevertheless, we have had good relations with our neighbors, but there are some flaws that are related to our growth rate. We are still not at the point where we are completely modernized. Our per capita GDP is approximately$ 13, 000, while that of the United States is over$ 80, 000.
Although development is the main goal of humanity, China is still in its early stages of development and hasn’t yet established modernization standards.
Our enhancement also has limitations, especially in soft energy, from the standpoint of a comprehensive national power standpoint. If our country’s per capita GDP exceeds$ 50, 000, and we have a population of 1.4 billion, we may create a huge impact. But, we are still not certain of it at this time. China is just a recent grad if the United States is a doctoral fellow in terms of the degree of development.
From now on, we may change our development strategy, increase our usage capacity and enhance people’s living standards. To do this, we must properly raise person’s income levels and give them total social stability.  ,
In the past, many of our government’s governmental expenditures were used for investment and growth. The government may spend more money right now on enhancing people’s lives by using sources that are unrelated to significant industries.  ,
By allocating and adjusting public tools, we can ultimately resolve problems in four key areas: accommodation, health care, knowledge and retirement. We can make domestic need and obtain inner circulation by improving welfare and increasing people’s investment in their livelihoods.
From a local view, the development of China’s domestic market will support the nation’s attractiveness to neighboring nations, boost the region’s job markets and development environment, and reduce its dependence on US and European markets.
Our practical work should focus on soft cooperation in the economy and technology. China first needs to strengthen its platform for regional economic cooperation and push for the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP ). Although the agreement became effective on January 1, 2023, it has not yet been fully understood. Under the RCEP framework, we should strengthen economic ties with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
In addition to strengthening economic ties with neighboring nations, we should continue to support the Belt and Road Initiative, put our emphasis on promoting subregional cooperation platforms like the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the China-South Asia Dialogue, and the China-Central Asia Dialogue.
Guancha.cn: Most of China’s neighboring economies agreed not to retaliate against Trump but to engage in tariff negotiations with the United States. How should China explore its economic and trade potential with neighboring countries?
Trump’s recent decision to suspend the imposition of “reciprocal tariffs” on 75 trading partners for 90 days and concentrate on business with us can be attributed to two factors: On the one hand, it is punishing China because many nations have shown an attitude of surrender and kneeling to the US. ( While most others chose to compromise, Canada and the European Union vowed to retaliate. ) On the other hand, it is also intended to appease different opinions at home.
In this context, China’s external trade situation is unquestionably severe.  ,
Some experts pointed out that when the tariff level between China and the United States exceeds 54 %, most of the commodity trade between the two countries will no longer have room for profit. The US increased its tariffs to 104 % and 145 %, but nothing much changed.
We must be fully prepared psychologically and willing to pay a certain price. Some scholars estimate that the impact of this tariff war on China may be as significant as that of the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic.
During the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic of 2020, China significantly changed its policies. To combat the crisis, the central government spent 4 trillion yuan ($ 547 billion ) plus local government loans in 2008 to address the crisis. In 2020, our country used its “whole-of-nation” system, similar to military mobilization, to overcome the pandemic.  ,
We must act now and act now to combat the US tariff war and to prepare as we did in 2008 and 2020.  ,
About 19 % of our GDP is exported abroad, but only 14.5 % of all exports to the US are made up of exports. Because some of our products are exported through third-party channels, the proportion may be even higher.
In the last round of tariff war, large-scale capital outflows from the mainland involved mainly Taiwanese and US firms, while the outflow of domestic capital was relatively low.
Let’s say that US exports account for about 20 % of our total exports. If China and the US’s trade is completely stopped, we will need to take steps to lessen the pain caused by a decline in exports to the US, which accounts for 4 % of our GDP.
Based on common sense, we can take three measures:
- increase domestic demand through fiscal stimulus while pursuing internal consumption,
- promote re-export through nations that are only subject to 10 % US tariffs,
- explore new markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
China and the United States could begin negotiations once they realize that China will not give in.  ,
We can work together to negotiate tariff exemptions for some goods that are produced in China and then shipped to the United States, like Tesla and Apple, for example. This has already been approved by the US. – eds ]
We’ll press the other party into negotiations after the confrontation. After all, engaging in a trade war is intended to produce bargaining chips to keep China from losing some exports. If we can reach an agreement, all products made by American companies in China for the US market can be exempted from tariffs. This could lessen China’s desire to diversify its markets.
With all of the above measures, China’s GDP will be impacted by the tariff war overall, falling from 4 % to less than 2 %.
At the strategic level, I remain optimistic about China’s overall outlook. We can use this tariff war to prompt local businesses to make adjustments, promote the establishment of a domestic market with internal and dual circulation, and turn “bad things into good things” with internal circulation.
I can make a second suggestion. Faced with a 10 % US tariff, many countries will see a decline in their trade surplus to the US and receive fewer US dollars, which may cause a global shortage of US dollars.  ,
China has the potential to use this opportunity to issue renminbi bonds in politically stable nations in large numbers.
The international market has a specific demand for renminbi. Renminbi bonds ‘ large-scale issuance can encourage Chinese investors to shop and invest there and help the country attract foreign investors.  ,
Such a move will also help promote the use of the renminbi in global transactions and agreements, creating favorable conditions for its internationalization.
This article is republished with permission from guancha.cn, which was originally published on April 14, 2025.