In the post-apocalyptic dread film” A Quiet Place,” individuals attempt to avoid blind alien invaders who have an acute sense of hearing by remaining totally silent. Japan now, facing the return of Donald Trump to the White House, even hopes to avoid the creature’s interest.
Being proactive is the best course of action for us, says Tokyo University researcher Sahashi Ryo, a renowned authority on South Asian international politics.
A previous senior American official with extensive experience in Japan advised close friends to urge Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to do the same, yet advising him to refrain from making a rushy visit to Washington. However, the prime minister will join Trump at the White House on February 7 after making a choice to walk on the way of harm.
Ishiba does not want to meet the growing list of American friends who have made it on to Trump’s objective record – headed by Canada and Mexico, but including Panama, Denmark and, indeed, the whole European Union.
The most recent arguing over taxes between China and Canada seems to support the notion that Trump had merely use them as a bargaining chip.
However, it is obvious from Trump’s own repeated remarks that tariffs are used as a means of rebalancing the global market and bringing manufacturing back to the United States.
Whatever Trump’s purpose, Ishiba comes bearing the common tray of gifts. It is a well-crafted bundle of services designed to calm the lion and keep his wildly swinging sensor from veering away from his well-crafted bundle of choices, which includes more buys of American defense equipment as part of Japan’s security development program.
He is likely to steer clear of the contentious issue of Nippon Steel’s choice to halt Nippon Steel’s purchase of US Steel while pointing to the success of Chinese investment in boosting US manufacturing jobs.
Ishiba has indicated that he does not foresee soft operations in Washington. Ishiba responded to reporters by asking how he might respond to requests for even more protection funding, saying it was probable that 2 % of GDP, but that Japan would have to make the decision, not the US.
Ishiba pledged to enhance the US-Japan ally in a brief statement to a worldwide speech held last week at the Foreign Ministry think container, Japan Institute for International Affairs. But he immediately added that he planned to “engage in truthful conversation” in Washington, political code thoughts for a less than nice meeting.
Ishiba is aware of how uneasy a marriage former prime minister Shinzo Abe and Trump could be. When Japan arrives, the British chief frequently refers to the late Abe, but he will quickly discover that the new Asian leader is not just another extension of Abe.
” Ishiba’s design goes counter to that of Abe– he is certainly a flatterer”, says Richard Dyck, Tokyo-based chairman of Japan Industrial Partners, who has been part of a research group attended constantly by Ishiba.
Price war have already started.
A former senior Japanese official who was actively engaged in conversations with the first Trump administration responded with the phrase “tariffs” when asked what would be the greatest effect of a Trump administration on Japan.
Japan, thus far, has not been on Trump’s tax list. The European Union is next in line, and the taxes on Mexico and Canada are only for one month. The 10 % tax imposed on China may even lead to some kind of dialogue. However, if those pauses turn out to be temporary, Japan did de facto fall prey to Trump’s growing economic war.
The cross-border taxes would essentially destroy the US-Mexico-Canada business agreement that was negotiated during Trump’s first name. In order to create a seamless offer string in North America, Chinese companies have set up lots of companies in both Mexico and Canada. Some 1, 300 Chinese companies operate in Mexico only.
The automobile industry would be the first to experience the effects of these taxes, not just Chinese companies but also US and Korean ones, all of which run factories in both Canada and Mexico to arrange vehicles for US exports and provide the essential auto parts that go to US factories. Nissan alone exported 326, 000 vehicles to the US from Mexico.
In addition to the already imposed tariffs against China, the tariffs against China will also have an impact on Japanese businesses that export from China. Of course, a growing trade war with China would have more severe effects on Chinese growth and harm Japanese companies that make products for the Chinese market.
China – is there a G2 to come?
In some circles in Tokyo, there is a hope, echoed by American policymakers, that Japan’s role as an anchor in an anti-China confrontation will ensure that it remains off the Trump list of bad actors.
In the Trump administration, traditional conservatives like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz, who have hawkish views of China, are in charge.
In that framework of confrontation, the US may look to strengthen security ties with Japan and other partners in the region, Randall Schriver, a former defense official in the first Trump administration, predicted while speaking to the JIIA gathering last week.
Others are concerned that Trump might opt out of a new” G2″ with China that effectively excludes Japan and instead chooses to engage in some “grand bargain” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
However, most experts dismiss that worry. According to Thomas Fingar, a Stanford scholar and former senior US intelligence official,” the risk of that is pretty low.” The Chinese” will be delighted to have him there” if Trump wants to visit China to see Xi. As for Trump, he” will go because it will be a great personal triumph”.
However, the two main problems on the table are those relating to technology competition and market access. Fingar tells Toyo Keizai that the tech billionaires want access to China that is difficult for the Chinese to provide.
” Even if Trump and Xi meet, it is not the start of G2″, agrees Tokyo University expert Sahashi. ” Military-strategic competition will continue”.
Ishiba’s own China card
Prime Minister Ishiba is already making a very different move: a concerted effort to improve relations with China and the rest of Asia, particularly South Korea and important Southeast Asian nations, to lessen the negative effects of Trump’s return and the escalation of global economic conflict.
Ishiba’s approach to defense policy is more focused on the importance of strengthening Japan’s ability to defend itself than on the needs of the US alliance. His support for an Asian NATO has been misinterpreted by many as further subordination to American strategic objectives. Instead, the goal is to create a “multi-layered security system for Asia,” as Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya stated in a recent issue of the monthly Bungei Shunju.
Ishiba passionately addressed the audience at the Global Dialogue about how Japan needed to conduct a thorough investigation of the country’s decision to go to war and Japan’s defeat.  ,
” It is time for us to revisit and review the war experience”, he said. He demanded that Japan comprehend “how to position itself in the world to bring about greater peace.”
There is a comparable interest in China, observes Stanford scholar Fingar, the former US deputy director of national intelligence. China has been reaching out to Japan, particularly, and to Europe and others, seeking to repair the damage done by its alliance with Russia and Vladimir Putin.
” The Chinese smile diplomacy is partly due to fear of being isolated,” Fingar told Toyo Keizai”. They have buyers ‘ regrets as a result of collaborating with Moscow,” with growing criticism within China that it has not been a good deal.” But China is also motivated by its own interests.
Because it will benefit a domestic audience, the Chinese want to boost relations. If you can divide Japan from the Americans, it may raise questions about the Americans ‘ dependability. But the big motivation is China’s economy. For strategic reasons, they don’t need friendly relations with Japan; instead, they need Japan to continue to contribute to the Chinese economy.
The upcoming months will serve as a test of how far China is prepared to go in order to truly strengthen ties with Japan. We need some action from their side, Sahashi says, including taking immediate steps to stop economic coercion, safeguard Japanese citizens and investors, and ease their military repression of the Senkaku islands and the East China Sea.
Tokyo and Beijing will likely be encouraged to go down this path by the summit in Washington this week and the newly started trade war. But in order not to openly challenge the monster, it will be done quietly.
Daniel Sneider is a former Christian Science Monitor foreign correspondent and a lecturer on international policy at Stanford University.  , This article , was originally published by Toyo Keizai and is republished with permission.