Japan is experiencing something of an economic judgment that government officials seem to be omitted yet before Donald Trump’s resumption of office.
In at least four of the last five weeks of the year, Japan’s household saving fell. ” At least” is used here because the December numbers aren’t yet known. In November, real spending dropped 0.4 % year on year. There is no compelling reason to believe that stuff improved in the final 30 days of 2025.
The point is that the “virtuous cycle” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba‘s Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) has promised since 2012 still hasn’t arrived. That’s despite all the vodka cork-popping from the flower when labor organizations received their biggest increase in 33 years.
Ishiba has merely led since October 1st. And with approval ratings in the mid-20s, he might not be about much longer. Maybe that’s why Ishiba didn’t even get a meeting with Trump, despite meeting with nearly every planet leader imaginable, including Prince William. Just not that of Japan, Trump 1.0’s leading supporter among democratic governments.
It’s on Ishiba’s see, nevertheless, that Japan’s pre-existing financial circumstances are catching up with the area. These include obstinate efforts to increase productivity and meritocracy in the labour force, lessen bureaucracy, revive the innovation that Japan Inc. was again famous for, empower women, and encourage more foreign corporations to relocate to Tokyo.
More than address these financial problems, the LDP continues to fiddling with the signs. Look no further than the Bank of Japan’s ( BOJ) interest rate policies, which have been stifled around zero for 25 years. The BOJ still lacks the will to raise rates above the current 0. 25 %.
Whatever happened to Shinzo Abe’s strong prepare 12 years ago to recreate Japan’s economic model? Sure, the late prime minister cajoled companies to increase shareholder price, driving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to all-time peaks. However, as 2025 draws near, worldwide investors are realizing that their optimism is not being matched by recent and bold reform initiatives in Tokyo.
Nor is Asia’s second-biggest business firing on some cylinder. Regular wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, which is one reason why house spending is sluggish. What makes everyone believe they’ll feed their paychecks as the Trump 2.0 era begins if CEOs were unwilling to do so in 2024?
According to Takafumi Fujita, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute,” It’s feared that higher taxes that President Trump has promised on China and other nations could stifle the global business and eventually hit Japan.”
Along with financial stability, international cooperation initiatives seem very much at risk.
” The US, Europe and Japan reconnected in a revitalized, cohesive G7 on issues such as financial sanctions, cybercrime, anti-money laundering and helping Ukraine against Russia”, says Mark Sobel,  , US chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum ( OMFIF ). ” But that unification, too, is likely to fight as Trump 2.0 introduces uncertainty and fluctuation”.
The same holds true for governmental evils that threaten the global financial system. As Sobel puts it:” Public debt is high in the US, many of Europe, Japan and China. In the US, the macroeconomic direction is unsustainable. Trump is likely to increase imbalances from the already excessively high level of 7 % of GDP, pushing up longer-term rates, hurting funding and causing business nausea. Does bond vigilantes gain”?
The BOJ is in a specially difficult status because of this. It is possible for the BOJ to delay the rate increase and maintain the policy for a while if the Chinese economy is adversely impacted by the US price boost without a matching depreciation of the yen, according to Hitoshi Asaoka, senior strategist at Asset Management One.
Frank Benzimra, mind of Asia capital approach at Societe Generale, notes that “in the coming months, the capital markets look set to be shaped by China –the level of governmental support – the US – the dollar, trade, diplomacy and the Bank of Japan – the possible catalyst for carry-trade sleeping – policies. The goal won’t have to be “bearish” in any way.
However, optimism abounds in Asian business circles. According to a Kyodo News survey, nearly 80 % of Japan’s top companies believe that the local market will continue to grow in 2025 as wage increases stimulate consumer spending.
However, every zig-and-zag may require a lot of market adaptation. ” Markets will be quite volatile but without much significant net direction, as the perceived odds of these different]tariff ] scenarios oscillate”, says Phil Suttle, principal at Suttle , Economics.
That goes, also, for northern banks from Tokyo to Washington. According to Daniel McCormack, head of research at Macquarie Asset Management,” a significant amount of core bank easing is currently priced into most rates markets, while credit spreads have tightened in recent months and are now somewhat thin by traditional standards.”
This, according to McCormack, “limits the upside in terms of returns for bonds, and equity asset classes are likely to benefit more from the macroeconomic environment that we anticipate seeing in 2025.” That said, yields have improved significantly in recent years, and absolute returns in 2025 should be healthy by historical standards.
Bond markets have moved to price in aggressive easing cycles by most major central banks in the upcoming quarters, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan, for which further increases are priced, following clear signals from central bank officials that further easing is likely.
As such, many BOJ watchers still think it’s full speed ahead for rate hikes. Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG, says”, we retain our base-case forecast of a rate hike in January.”
The BOJ will need to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, according to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who recently stated that “if economic activity and prices continue to improve, the BOJ will need to do so.”
And that “uncertainties regarding the incoming US administration’s economic policies” and how the annual Spring labor management wage negotiations will develop will have the final say on Japanese rates.
Izumi Devalier, an economist at Bank of America, says that Ueda’s comments” gave a stronger indication that the central bank may need to wait until at least the March , monetary policy meeting to gain , sufficient information , to make the judgment for a hike.”
With a BOJ rate hike unlikely until March at the earliest, says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia”, the risk of dollar-yen testing extending its rally towards 160/162 in early 2025 remains elevated “from 157 now.
Asaoka anticipates that the BOJ will increase the policy rate, which is regarded as neutral, to 1 % by the end of 2025. ” He adds that” if the Trump administration’s policies lead the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in 2025, the BOJ will find it relatively easier to proceed with rate hikes.”
Some investors are betting on the return of the good times for Japanese stocks given that scenario.
” We expect the Nikkei 225 will reach 45, 400 and TOPIX to 3, 190 by the end of 2025 “from 39, 190 now, says Hisashi Shiraki, strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.
He continues,” While foreign investors ‘ appetite for Japanese stocks appears sluggish, a sizable amount of share buybacks, up to 17 trillion yen in fiscal year 2024, could protect the downside and boost the stock market going forward.”
There’s an argument, too, that Japan Inc could benefit from deeper troubles being suffered elsewhere, says Junichi Inoue, head of Japanese equities at Janus Henderson Investors.
” Due to Japanese stocks ‘ comparatively low valuations versus global equities, and ongoing governance reforms contributing to return-on-equity improvements, we expect the market to demonstrate a certain level of resilience,” Inoue says.
Inoue also points out that” for these reasons, we think that Japanese equities can be seen as attractive risk-reward asset classes, deserving of an allocation in a diversified portfolio, particularly those that are exposed to global markets and global growth.”
However, such views may be deflated by global risks. Japan would absorb a lot of economic shrapnel, perhaps even more, despite Trump’s threatened trade war targeting China. For all China’s challenges, Xi Jinping’s team has been busily diversifying exports to Global South economies around the globe.
Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, acknowledges hope that Trump’s proposed tax reductions will help Japanese companies with significant US exposure offset the risks and increase profits. But either way, a giant trade war would slam Japan’s gross domestic product.
According to Kobayashi,” If that happens, capital investment would decline because we anticipate that exports will decline, ultimately affecting the broader economy.”
That could make Japan Inc. even less willing to raise wages. Japan has been more reluctant to turn its back on the American consumer. In Tokyo, there are no signs that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates as quickly as it had hoped.
Indeed, the Trumpian headwinds to come make 2025 a perilous time for Japan. Last month, the BOJ chose not to hike rates, which it later confirmed. Ahead of that December 19 decision, traders were primed for Ueda to tighten. Many felt its refusal to act smacked of fear, not pragmatism.
For the first time since 2011, traders last week pushed 10-year yields above 1.1 %, a clear indication that the BOJ erred by not raising.
” It’s like the rug was pulled out from under us,” Kazuhiko Sano, chief bond strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities, tells Nikkei Asia.
Why should corporate executives and global investors if the BOJ doesn’t believe Japan is ready to abandon its financial training wheels?
Granted, there are legitimate arguments to support Japan Inc. companies that are cash-rich in their governance positions. Japan, after all, has carved out a place for itself as an Asia-region safe haven as deflation plagues China.
However, there will come a point when investors examine the underlying economy and wonder whether policy changes are keeping up with the level of optimism that is pervading the market.
A lack of household demand may give too many investors pause about Japan’s chances in the Trump 2.0 era as more and more investors look for an answer.
Of course, surprises are always possible. On the eve of July elections, Ishiba might find his reformist sea-legs and cling to power.
Trump might choose to prioritize a trade agreement with Xi’s China over a tariff-free arms race. Or perhaps the newly elected president will treat ally Japan favorably in the marketplace while punishing China.
But as a highly uncertain year begins, Japan’s past could catch up with it just as Ueda’s BOJ and Ishiba’s LDP stumble in the present.
Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek