Why the EU-China Summit is bound to disappoint

In April 2022, the final mountain between the European Union and China was contentious. Shortly after Russia’s war of Ukraine, toward which China has taken a liberal approach, it took place via videoconference. Although business may be the main topic at the next conference, which will take place in Beijing from December 7 to 8, it is unlikely to be any simpler. &nbsp,

After three decades of zero-Covid- 19 laws in China, the anticipated advantages of a reopened China for Europe have never materialized. Instead, with a €400 billion diplomatic deficit with the EU, business relations, which were balanced prior to the pandemic, are now largely in China’s pursuit.

The EU, a significant online exporter, is hardly comparable to any other significant economy in terms of trade imbalance. With many industries also closed to foreign competition, this, in the opinion of EU officials, is proof of limited access to the Chinese market.

It also signals China’s extreme industrial policy, which the European Commission views as unjust competition given the significant subsidies it provides to important industries that compete with those of Europe, not just in China but also extremely in the EU and next markets.

Despite the economy being reopened, China’s imports have been growing negatively for several months, which makes the lack of industry access even more obvious. Beijing’s localisation requirements, which make it extremely challenging for foreign corporations to continue relying on their physical manufacturers, are a major factor in the decline in EU exports to China.

An important factor in the decline in Chinese imports is their substitution with Chinese local suppliers, which is a key goal of Beijing’s historic professional policy” Made in China 2025″ in an effort to achieve self-reliance. &nbsp,

environmentally friendly technology

Meanwhile, a significant increase in EU imports from China has been attributed to China’s dominance of green technology, particularly solar panels and electric vehicles ( EVs ). China exports 90 % of the world’s solar panel, while the EU economy has been destroyed since subsidies were lifted following the 2010–12 EU sovereign problems.

However, it is much more difficult to accept Chinese EV imports because the car industry, which employs more than 14 million people, continues to be one of the major industries in the EU. This is likely the reason the EU has contacted the World Trade Organization to conduct an anti-subsidy research into Vehicles made in China and exported to the European Union.

Chinese officials will undoubtedly complain about this investigation during this week’s summit, but it does n’t seem likely that the EU delegation will show any signs of backing down. &nbsp,

The Taiwanese, who are accustomed to the union easing its positions in prior investigations, such as the 2014 anti-dumping spacecraft into solar panels, may not yet completely understand the EU’s tougher stance. Given the much greater significance of the car industry for Europe this time and the probable lack of counteroffers from the Chinese side, it is anticipated that the European Commission will maintain its position.

More than 1,000 tips were made by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China in September to reduce barriers to promote access for EU businesses. China might benefit from these, but there are two reasons why this is implausible.

Second, despite declining consumption and expense, the Chinese market continues to perform poorly. A significant business deficit has grown in significance as a source of growth as well as to prevent the negative effects of huge capital outflows on the balance of payments, which in turn affects the value of the rmb and public confidence in the economy.

Next, China has seen the Biden-Xi conference in California on November 15 as a victory in restoring US relationships. Chinese officials will be less inclined to provide Europeans with industry access that the US may not have had once they have regained confidence in China’s relations with the most significant country in the world.

After the Biden- Xi mountain, China’s self-confidence is bound to fight with the EU side making exceedingly anxious requests to balance its relationship with China. However, given China’s weak economy and the requirement for a trade surplus, there is also much room for it to increase goods. Therefore, the EU-China summit will undoubtedly upset once more.

Senior research fellow at Bruegel and chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, Alicia Garcia Herrero.