Was Xi Jinping, the president of China, have chosen a more awkward time to fly into Cambodia than April 17? The 1975 march by the Beijing-backed Khmer Rouge into the investment, Phnom Penh, is also commemorated.
Cambodia’s biggest and most divine national holiday, Khmer New Year, occurs when the cities are completely clear for the entire year ( although technically it’s only a vacation between April 13 and April 16 ), and the inhabitants presumably heads to the provinces.
Anyone who has spent more than two years in Cambodia is aware of the rule of silence during the Khmer New Time. The towns are deserted. The stores have been closed. Authorities are taking vacations. The authorities are off to statewide karaoke bars to spend their “tea money.”
Many bureaucrats have complained to me that they will now be working next week, and that they will have to travel back to the capital shortly to control the state visit.
But, the schedule seems to have been made very carefully. The meaning of the Khmer New Season is well known in Beijing. It is aware of how the ASEAN institutions handle their schedules. Cambodia and China both rarely make state visits during the Lunar New Year, and I have trouble remembering when they did during the trip.
So why would an “ironclad friend” decide to ruin your most significant getaway of the year? A demonstration of the energy imbalance, or a show of force? Cambodia’s plan of action was unknown. Politly decline the attend? ” We’re too hectic that week, Mr. Xi, sad. ” How about another time,”
Nevertheless, the visit was planned months in advance, so Beijing’s attitude may not have been the same as it is now. Let’s say the day was chosen in January or February. Beijing was especially angry with Southeast Asian governments at the time for reasons that are too numerous to address.
In January, when news broke that the Chinese artist Wang Xing had been abducted and forced to work in a fraud element in Myanmar, that was particularly true. The Chinese government, which had just launched a glitzy anti-scam advertising campaign, was immediately facing queries it didn’t like.
Therefore, it is possible that Beijing, as a passive-aggressive stretch, chose April 17 as the visitation time a few months ago. It’s not known whether Xi arrives in Phnom Penh in a bad feelings. One can only speculate that Xi will have some heartfelt words to say to the Big Man ( Hun Sen) and the Big Boy ( Hun Manet ) about the Cambodian authorities ‘ continued efforts to stop cyberscamming.
However, international politics have changed. The majority of Donald Trump’s actions since January have probably improved China’s standing in Southeast Asia, not least of which because the White House has confirmed all of Southeast Asia’s worst concerns about Trump 2.0. The environment has been particularly altered by the rough 49 % tariffs applied to Cambodia.
According to one viewpoint, America is now in a solid place to press on Phnom Penh to break its ties with China or to weaken them. Well, but. Yes, it has a solid position, but only if Phnom Penh believes the condition is worse than the cure.
The main lesson I learned from talking to a few people in Phnom Penh in recent days was that Trump’s taxes are more likely to bring Cambodia yet closer to China.
First of all, at the moment, Chinese ideologues aren’t required to do a lot of concoctions. They are absolutely correct when they say that Beijing presently appears much more trustworthy than Washington.
Trump is bullying as well as being unstable. In the unlikely event that Phnom Penh goes to war right away and offers Washington the majority of its needs in exchange for tariff relief, Trump won’t put in even more requirements in six months or a month. Just put, there is no way that Phnom Penh, nor any other country, will ever really believe in Trump.
Next, this isn’t primarily an economic issue. Phnom Penh would ( surely ) have offered much more and concessions to America than it currently does if it were just economic. The nation that purchases more than a third of your imports is nothing more crucial to the business.
However, it’s also social. One can speculate that Beijing is urging Phnom Penh never to “give in” to Washington. In fact, Beijing will likely view this as the best time to break even more relations between Cambodia and the US.
In terms of Phnom Penh, for decades, its reaction to any significant opposition from a foreign government has been to create a fantastic claim, wait for the heat to subside, and then do very small. Discuss loudly, and leave nothing.
Beijing is enraged, however, over Phnom Penh’s failing to combat its connivanced business. Washington is upset about Phnom Penh’s unwavering disregard for its commitment to reconciliation. Trump also has an unusual passion for trade deficits, making him angry.
Cambodia should be damned if it does, and should be damned if it doesn’t, so I don’t see how it can get out of this particular circumstance. ( Maybe, though, the Trump administration will accept the financial/trade reforms Phnom Penh has proposed, but that seems unlikely. )
And when you’re stuck, the natural inclination is to look for the simplest way to get free, which is China for Phnom Penh. According to one cause, at least Xi is showing up, but Trump don’t point to Cambodia on a chart.
This content was originally published on David Hutt’s Cambodia Unfiltered Substack, and it has since been republished. Subscribe to Cambodia Unfiltered right away below.