Trump about to trigger greatest trade diversion ever seen – Asia Times

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The worldwide trading program has been shaken by US President Donald Trump’s taxes. Canadians have to be aware of the effects of the tariff’s damaging effect on US-Canada relations, but the wider wave effects may prove just as bad.

billions of dollars in imports that were formerly headed for the US are now expected to flood global markets, including those in Canada. This may lead to a traditional business diversion that may put even the most liberalized nations to the test.

In 2024, US imports accounted for about 15 % of global exports. The nation has long been the biggest consumer market in the world, in part because of its low common taxes of only 3.3 %.

These times are now over. The US’s average tariff rate increased by sevenfold to a staggering 22 % on April 2, making it by far the highest rate among nations with major economies.

A 10 % benchmark rate and a number of regional duties are still in place despite the US’s “reciprocal” taxes, which have since been suspended for all nations but China and Trump have now exempted them.

Together, they create a generation-unique tax walls around the US.

The fantastic industry escape

China is responsible for a lot of the business disruption. China exported goods worth$ 438.9 billion to the US in 2024. Thousands of packages, which were sent via e-commerce websites like Shein, entered the US duty-free because they fell below the$ 800 “de minimis” level.

Trump removed this restriction on low-value Chinese exports on April 2 and imposed a 34 % mutual tax on all Chinese imports.

This charge is then stacked on top of a 20 % fentanyl-related price after China pledged to fight on April 4. The end result is a nearly 100 % successful price, which prohibits China’s exports to the US.

China rerouted many of its export through Southeast Asia the next day US-China trade hostilities grew. Southeast Asian nations were also severely affected this day, though.

In 2024, Vietnam, a big export-oriented foreign investment destination for China, exported$ 137 billion worth of goods to the US. The US is improbable to bear for circumvention this time around, despite the suspension of the 46 % bilateral tax against Vietnam.

Additionally, all imported cars have a 25 % tax that the US has put in place. Autos are all exported to the US business by South Korea, Japan, and Germany. Some of these exports perhaps proceed as consumers are absorbed or given additional tariffs, but others will shift their vehicles elsewhere.

In total, billions of dollars in business are being rerouted, with a tsunami of goods heading for global markets.

Great Depression redux

The earth has previously existed around. The Smoot-Hawley Tax Act, which raised tariffs on dozens of imported products in an effort to protect American sectors during the Great Depression, was passed by the US in the 1930s. The end result was a sharp downturn in world trade.

Instead of immediate retaliation against the US, what eventually tipped the world over the top was international trade collapsed as US trading companions turned on each other. They rushed to defend their own production by enacting business limits of their own when faced with a flood of diverted products.

Similar to today, we are facing a comparable threat. Trump’s tariffs themselves or even the retribution they cause are more worrying, but rather the resulting industry diversion and influx of protectionism they you elicit.

World trade decreased month after month between 1929 and 1933, worsening the Great Depression, as nations increased taxes and other trade restrictions. Based on information from Charles P. Kindleberger’s The World in Depression 1929-1939.

Old fears and fresh forces

In some ways, the world may be in a more perilous place than it was in the first 1930s.

Western politicians, including G7 people, have been raising alarms about” Chinese overcapacity” for almost ten years. China frequently uses unfair non-market practices, such as secret subsidization, to lower local prices by exporting very much domestically and exporting too much worldwide.

Doubts of underdevelopment have already sparked the creation of new trade barriers in some institutions. In order to safeguard its own nascent market in 2024, Canada, for instance, imposed a 100 % tax on Chinese-made electric cars. These already-presented problems will only get worse with a flood of Chinese goods.

International trade regulations intended to stop protectionism have also weakened. The US has prohibited courts from joining the highest judge of the World Trade Organization, which is charged with enforcing business laws.

Countries outside the US have been encouraged to boldly flout WTO rules due to the resulting violence. For instance, Indonesia continues to impose a non-uniform WTO export restrictions on metal. The electronic vehicle tariff from Canada will probably also be determined illegal by trade regulations.

International trade is at a juncture

An now constrained system will be put to the test by The Great Trade Diversion. Countries also have a chance to reaffirm their commitment to foreign trade regulations. When confronted by a glut of imports, those same rules also let nations briefly stifle business.

The French government can identify areas that are in danger of causing disruption and request that the Canada Border Services Agency launch self-investigative investigations into prone areas to remove the necessary administrative hurdles before imposing temporary import restrictions.

The world trading system can survive the wind if nations adhere to these guidelines. However, a slip toward isolationism is just as likely. The desire to create illegal trade restrictions like the US currently has will be great when faced with a flurry of products coming from China.

The world economy is at a intersection: one path leads to renewed global cooperation and international regulations, the other to a sequence of protectionist procedures and a degrading of the very system that has provided decades of economic growth and balance.

Wolfgang Alschner is the University of Ottawa ‘s/L’Universitéd’Ottawa’s Hyman Soloway Chair in business and trade rules.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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US-China tensions impact visa issuance for Chinese students – Asia Times

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As Washington tightens its undergraduate visa issuance, rising geopolitical tensions and trade war are having an impact on people-to-people exchanges between the US and China. &nbsp,

Despite not providing specifics, the Trump administration reportedly revoked the visas of more than a thousand international students over the course of the previous month.

According to some media reports, the move may be connected to an executive order that US President Donald Trump signed in late January of this year to look into foreign students who had protested in favor of Palestine on US colleges or posted anti-Hamas messages on social media last year.

The majority of Chinese students who have just lost their permits are foreign students. The others are from Iran and India.

At least 1,300 international students and recent alumni at more than 200 US organizations were among the at least 1,300 who were cited as having seen their “legal standing change” in recent days, according to Inside Higher Education, a professional publication. &nbsp,

One student was “detained at the border, denied entry, and deported to their home country,” according to the University of California San Diego (UCSD ). 35 students have had their F-1 visas revoked, according to the University of California San Diego (UCSD ). International students must have F-1 permits in order to research in the US, or they risk being deported.

A Chinese journalist from Shandong claims in an article that the US government’s recent decision to revoke international student permits is political campaign. He claims that many of those who posted pro-Palestine social media posts or participated in relevant protests are currently being investigated by the US Citizenship and Immigration Services. &nbsp,

The US government’s action may appear to be a crackdown on some regulations, but the poet claims that the government wants to have a chilling influence during a sensitive time, referring to the business battle. ” Targeting foreign students may win local hardliners and halt large-scale protests,” says the statement.

He claims it’s absurd that immigration officials asked an American student who posted a photo of children in Gaza to discuss any connections to Hamas to him.

He goes on to say that this “witch hunt” damages the income of American universities by hurting several major international talents. &nbsp,

After learning that the US had revoked the visas of thousands of foreign students, some Chinese families who had planned to send their kids to the US for education had changed their minds. According to The South China Morning Post, on April 17, some Chinese families who had planned to send their children to the US changed their minds.

According to the SCMP, some parents wanted their children to switch from the Advanced Placement ( AP ) curriculum to the International Baccalaureate ( IB ) or A-level, according to a Shanghai-based study-abroad agent. The IB and A-level courses are for universities in Europe and the UK, while the AP education is for applying to American universities.

Four Chinese students sued in California on April 11 after the US federal revoked the visas of at least 529 students, faculty, and experts from 88 American institutions.

36 foreign students from 30 institutions across the US had written statements to a local judge over the weekend of April 12 through April 13, according to Clay Zhu, an attorney and managing partner at DeHeng Law Offices ‘ Silicon Valley company who represents the defendants.

One from Taiwan, three from Iran, and one from India, according to Zhu, are all from the Chinese island. He added that the complaint is intended to safeguard the rights of all foreign individuals who are impacted. Within a few days, a prosecutor may make a decision.

Trump’s executive get

On October 7, 2023, Hamas, a Palestinian republican, Sunni Islamist social group, attacked Jewish areas, killing about 1,200 citizens and seizing 251 victims. Israel launched a military operation in the Gaza Strip, which resulted in the deaths and accidents of tens of thousands of Palestinians.

On lots of US college schools last year, numerous pro-Palestine students staged protests.

Trump signed an Executive Order on January 29 to overcome anti-semitism. According to him, according to his 2019 Executive Order on Combating Anti-Semitism, students encounter anti-Semitic abuse in classrooms and on campus at universities and colleges. He claimed that Israeli students in the US have endured an unending barrage of bias and abuse since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

At least 300 international students ‘ permits were suspended, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on March 27.

We won’t grant you that visa if you say you’re coming not just to review but also to participate in activities that damage institutions, abuse students, overtake buildings, and cause conflict, according to Rubio.

Beijing authorities have criticized Israel’s military activity in Gaza on numerous occasions since October 2023 and reaffirmed China’s help for a Palestinian state. &nbsp,

Some Chinese students in the US followed Beijing’s lead by taking to the streets and posting pro-Palestine and pro-Hamas information on their social media accounts, but many of them then feel regret.

China’s Ministry of Education issued an international study alert on April 9th, urging Chinese students to examine security risks and increase their awareness of precautions if they plan to study in particular US states. The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism also recommended that travelers thoroughly assess the dangers of visiting the US on the same time.

Both warnings can be seen in the context of China’s retaliatory measures against the Trump administration’s 14 % tariff on all Chinese goods.

Additional issues

There were roughly 1.1 million foreign students studying in the US in 2024. In the academic year 2023/24, the number of Chinese students in the US was 277, 398, 4.2 % down from 289, 526 in 2022/23 or 25.5 % down from the historical peak of 372, 532 in 2019/2020, according to Statista.com.

The Stop Chinese Communist Prying by Vindicating Intellectual Safeguards in Academia Act ( Stop CCP VISAs Act ) was introduced by US Congressman Riley Moore on March 14. He claimed that Chinese students have been allegedly spied on by American military personnel or allegedly stealing cutting-edge technology from American companies. &nbsp,

” Every year, we grant student visas to almost 300,000 Chinese immigrants who reside in the US. According to Moore,” We’ve invited the CCP to spie on our defense, thieve our intellectual property, and harm our national security.” Congress must put an end to China’s abuse of our student immigration system. It’s about time to turn off the pipe and soon forbid all student visas for Chinese citizens.

Five Chinese students were arrested last October by the Federal Bureau of Investigation ( FBI ) for photographing joint US-Taiwan live-fire military exercises near a military site in Michigan. Moore’s call came after the FBI arrested them. The reported incident took place in August of 2023.

The five were accused of conspiring to remove photographs from their devices and lying to authorities about their journey to Michigan. They received their degrees from the University of Michigan in flower of 2023. They were enrolled in a joint programme between Shanghai Jiao Tong University in China and the University of Michigan.

The post-Cold War consensus that assumed China may empower and deregulate had been ineffective for years, according to US Senator Ashley Moody, who supports the Stop CCP Visas Act. Otherwise, the CCP abused American goodwill and subversively eluded it by sending officials to our shores to eavesdrop on dissidents and state rivals, as well as to smuggle billions of dollars worth of research and intellectual property.

According to a writer from Guangdong, if the US forbids Foreign learners from studying it, its universities will drop top students and significant incomes because foreign students pay several times more than local students.

Read more: Xi travels to Southeast Asia in the midst of China’s severe import problems.

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China, Cambodia vow supply chain cooperation, sign canal deal

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Beijing: According to a joint statement from the Chinese foreign ministry on Friday ( Apr 18 ), they have come to an agreement to strengthen cooperation in transportation infrastructure and secure secure supply chains. Cambodia hopes a big canal’s construction will change its economic fortunes, even though the funding andContinue Reading

Anwar’s highly calculated handshake with Min Aung Hlaing – Asia Times

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The political landscape of Southeast Asia changed when Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met Myanmar Senior General Min Aung Hlaing on April 17 in Naypyidaw in his power as ASEAN’s 2025 circular seat, albeit only slightly and with significant tension.

The conference, which was allegedly centered on humanitarian assistance following the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar’s northern and central parts on March 28, was the first official ASEAN party’s attend to the military dictatorship since the Five-Point Consensus was overthrown. &nbsp,

Anwar shakes the hands of a general whose government has killed, displaced, and dismembered the very idea of a consolidated Myanmar in a time that does come to define Malaysia’s ASEAN leadership after staging a democracy-suspending revolt in 2021.

There is no disputing the metaphoric significance of the face. ASEAN had previously avoided high-level engagements with Min Aung Hlaing to prevent ratifying the Tatmadaw’s rule of law after years of intentional political mileage to prevent legitimacy. &nbsp,

Anwar’s choice to change that pattern has rekindled questions about ASEAN’s commitment, coherence, and credibility, regardless of humanitarian justification.

Unintentionally, the gathering gave the junta a much-needed photo opportunity to sign local recognition, if not acceptance, despite its philanthropic nature. &nbsp,

Anwar and Min Aung Hlaing were swiftly featured in Naypyidaw’s meticulously choreographed media coverage, confirming the claim that the junta is Myanmar’s only genuine ruler.

However, portraying the conference as a political capitulation would be exceedingly straightforward. The attend of Anwar immediately produced beneficial results. &nbsp,

First, it authorized the ASEAN Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management ( AHA Center ) to coordinate the delivery of humanitarian aid through secure corridors. &nbsp,

Teams from Malaysia are now gaining exposure to earthquake-hit areas that had formerly been closed off as a result of the ongoing legal conflict through international and local NGOs.

Second, Anwar insisted in public and private on the necessity of a ceasefire and unrestricted access for aid workers, particularly in disputed areas held by ethnic armed organizations ( EAOs ) and People’s Defense Forces ( PDFs ). &nbsp,

The Tatmadaw has hesitantly agreed to a momentary cessation of hostilities in some areas, according to diplomatic resources in Putrajaya and Jakarta, though the validity and viability of this promise are still uncertain.

Third, Anwar used the situation to give what observers characterized as a “polite but company” censure of the military regime. &nbsp,

Anwar emphasized in a media briefing following the visit that democratic legitimacy is not a prerequisite for ASEAN’s charitable problem. This support does not make you recognize. He continued,” It shows how concerned we are for the citizens of Myanmar.”

However, the visit did not include any significant omissions, much like diplomatic missions that are gentle. Most strikingly, Anwar did not meet with members of the human government-in-exile, the National Unity Government ( NUG), which enjoys growing international acclaim and domestic allegiance. &nbsp,

He also did not speak with representatives of civil society or cultural groups from the Karen, Shan, or Rakhine communities, who are now in charge of sizable stretches of country and whose participation is essential to any successful peace process.

However, some of these organizations have connections to international crime syndicates. Evidently, Anwar was not required to meet them, particularly given how acidic their actions have become along Myanmar’s edges with Thailand and China.

These organizations are operating fraud towns, cybercrime hotspots, and trafficking networks, many of whom operate with tacit or strong protection from neighborhood militias. &nbsp,

Although Myanmar’s internal collapse caused these syndicates to rise unchallenged, these organizations may function as a scapegoat for a while and then receive a reward for it.

However, the inability to bring the visit together with non-junta voices and organizations gave the impression that ASEAN may be drifting up to its old ways of favoring state-centric politics over inclusive dialogue, whether fair or not. &nbsp,

This could stifle the pro-democracy actors and reinforce the tale that ASEAN is unable to defend its own consensus-based principles. &nbsp,

However, a large study would also be mistaken. On August 8, 1967, ASEAN was established to address issues relating to non-traditional protection. It still has a long way to move despite years of progress.

Additionally, the attend took place in the midst of growing local unrest. Anwar’s meet must now be viewed in relation to Donald Trump’s growing price war with China, which has always been the catalyst for the post-Cold War order’s collapse.

Trump’s disruption has redefined world trade, not by creating new regulations, but by creating new contradictions. Southeast Asia has become a new frontline of corporate vulnerability as a result of the financial fragmentation, which has fueled authoritarian regimes and increased global South dependency.

Myanmar is the canary in this collapsed world management system. Anwar’s explore may be seen in this political environment as a military necessity rather than an ASEAN retreat, a step to stop Myanmar from completely descending into a failed state. &nbsp,

Anwar, who chairs ASEAN, might have guessed that alienation may lead to more violence, deeper Chinese penetration, and unregulated criminal syndicates.

In this way, the conference was both a political risk and a humanitarian need, indicating that ASEAN, while inadequate and divided, is never completely paralyzed. In the face of military cruelty and local decay, it also highlighted the limitations of peaceful politics.

What comes next is crucial. Anwar has now strike a balance between this intense social inclusion push and the above-mentioned high level engagement. He must unite ASEAN to mobilize both to provide support and to start creating a peacefulness framework that includes all of Myanmar’s actors, not just those who own airports and capital cities.

In more ways than one way, the Anwar-Min Aung Hlaing conference was required to improve conditions for the distribution of humanitarian aid and demonstrate that ASEAN also has a signal in the face of severe human suffering. &nbsp,

The Tatmadaw and Min Aung Hlaing are presiding over Myanmar’s collapse at a time when Trump’s trade war and unilateralism are causing the conventional world attempt to collapse. &nbsp,

In a world like this, solitude is collusion. When done with discernment and discernment, proposal is the lesser evil.

Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is an assistant professor of ASEAN research at the Malaysian International Islamic University. He regularly writes about regionalalism, safety issues, and politics in Southeast Asia.

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HealthMetrics rebrands Indonesian operations to HealthMetrics Indonesia, launches new solutions to strengthen its digital TPA foundation

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  • aims to introduce cutting-edge modern TPA solutions to the Indonesian market.
  • strengthens its status as a local hotspot for medical care and provides care for people from other countries.

(From left) Advent Phang, Co-founder & Group Chief Technology Officer of HealthMetrics Group; Alvin Yuan, Co-founder & Group Chief Executive Officer of HealthMetrics Group; and Dr. Madan Mohan Vasandani, Chief Executive Officer of HealthMetrics Indonesia, at the official launch of HealthMetrics Indonesia during HealthMetrics Spotlight 2025 in Jakarta.

With the launch of HealthMetrics Indonesia, a leading digital Third-party Administrator ( TPA ) in Southeast Asia headquartered in Malaysia, HealthMetrics has announced its continued regional expansion. This is the result of the rebranding of Across Asia Assist Indonesia ( AAA ) under the HealthMetrics umbrella, which combines HealthMetrics ‘ advanced digital infrastructure with long-standing Indonesian expertise. In 2022, HealthMetrics acquired AAA.

The consolidated platform, according to the company, will change the healthcare system and open new cross-border opportunities, particularly for Malaysian healthcare providers who want to serve clients from other countries.

Serving insurance customers like Allianz, AXA, Tokio Marine, and regional corporations, AAA has supported millions of Indonesians for over a century in its position as a TPA and international health assistance service.

The marketing of AAA to HealthMetrics Indonesia, according to HealthMetrics, reflects this transformation by combining cutting-edge native expertise with next-generation electronic infrastructure. This marketing aims to make medical administration for insurers, corporations, medical providers, and members across the nation and locally more quickly, smart, and smooth.

The firm also introduced three options, the HealthMetrics Cloud Platform, the Worldwide Member App, and the International Assistance Hub, along with the release of HealthMetrics Indonesia. These solutions place an emphasis on patient-centric, AI-based, robust and brilliant healthcare access, giving insurers, corporations, and healthcare providers in the area greater efficiency, accountability, and access to care.

In particular, it streamlines the practice for email people and makes it easier for providers to search for board providers in Malaysia, ask ensure letters, manage claims, and provide post-care support.

” We think our digital-first strategy is in line with Southeast Asia’s perspective of a related medical ecosystem, and it builds on the electric foundations laid by our Indonesian counterpart in delivering flexible innovation across borders,” said Dr. Madan Mohan Vasandani, CEO of HealthMetrics Indonesia.

With over 7, 000 healthcare providers already integrated into its network, HealthMetrics believes its expansion into Indonesia strengthens Malaysia’s position as a gateway for cross-border care.

This is a happy moment for us as a Malaysian-born company, said Alvin Yuan, co-founder and group CEO of HealthMetrics Group. Through our connected, digital-first ecosystem, Malaysian healthcare providers have exciting opportunities to serve international patients. We can co-create a connected, borderless healthcare future by bringing technology, partnerships, and purpose together. As a result, I’m excited about the unification of a previously formidable mission with our Indonesian team, which already have a strong track record as a leading TPA and Indonesia’s largest assistance company.

” Our focus is not only on digitization, but on intelligent digital solutions– bringing cost savings, transparency, and control to all stakeholders in the healthcare journey,” said Advent Phang, co-founder andamp; Group Chief Technology Officer of HealthMetrics Group. Our experience in Malaysia, which continues to serve as a launchpad for regional growth, has influenced a lot of this innovation.

With features like instant member enrolment, AI-driven claims, fraud detection, cost containment, and real-time insights to ensure efficient and high-quality care delivery, the HealthMetrics Cloud Platform will connect insurers, corporates, and providers to manage domestic and international policies seamlessly.

Users of the HealthMetrics Global Member App are able to link multiple insurance policies, access care globally, request guarantee letters and claims, and access wellness benefits all from one app.

Through its regional TPA network, HealthMetrics International Assistance Hub can access more than 15, 000 direct-billed healthcare providers, facilitating better provider terms and coordination.

Since its launch in 2015, HealthMetrics believes that this gives it a stronger digital foundation to support its growth as a leading digital TPA with presence in Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia.

HealthMetrics Spotlight 2025 Jakarta

At HealthMetrics Spotlight 2025, which took place in Jakarta on April 16th, its digital solutions were highlighted. Over 100 people from the healthcare, insurance, employee benefits, and corporate sectors took part in the event to discuss the future of Indonesian healthcare administration, highlighting the crucial role of digital-first infrastructure in improving access, efficiency, and quality of care for all Indonesians.
The event was supported by KPJ Healthcare Bhd, one of the biggest private healthcare providers in the area, which highlighted the value of cross-border partnerships in promoting a connected, borderless healthcare experience for Indonesian corporations, insurers, and members, while also opening up new opportunities for Malaysia to attract inbound patients.

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What Southeast Asia’s manufacturers stand to lose as US-China tariff war hits region

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The overall number of workers affected by other businesses imposing paid left or reducing the number of working days or hours, according to Redma Gita Wirawasta, the agency’s chair.

Yet Sri Rejeki Isman, the biggest textile company in Indonesia, saw its fortunes drop. It posted a gross income of US$ 85 million in 2020, surpassing the US$ 1.3 billion in sales that year. However, it stopped operating after filing for bankruptcy in March, leaving about 10,700 people without jobs.

Because of the influx of Chinese materials into the business, Redma claims, adding that the competition exists in both the domestic and export markets.

” We are aware that some companies, like Mango, Zara, Nike, Adidas, H&amp, M,” had to reduce output in Indonesia because they must also contend with Chinese goods in the US and Europe.

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ASEAN states could use Xi’s visit to ‘project strength’ for US tariff talks in tough balancing act

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The regional bloc won’t impose punitive tariffs on China, according to Anwar. Anwar himself acknowledged that it would be challenging for ASEAN to retain its importance and maintain a balance between the US and China before Xi’s visit.

Chong said,” How ( Xi’s visit ) changes the situation is less well understood, including how negotiations with the United States might work.” Additionally, there are still unresolved problems with China.

These include territorial issues, as well as a possible surplus of Chinese goods as business is diverted away from the US, which could put pressure on South Asian markets and smaller businesses.

Given its low home demand and traditional use of Southeast Asian components in manufacturing export to the United States, he continued,” The degree to which China is able to give a market for East Asian items was left undiscussed as well as Beijing’s capacity to provide funding given its own financial headwinds,” he continued.

According to Abdul Rahman, Malaysia must find a “difficult work” in balancing its connections with both the US and China.

Beijing is a significant buying companion, he said, despite the territorial disputes it has with China.

” Malaysia under Anwar has posed good views about China. However, Malaysians are developing their capabilities in Sabah and Sarawak, which are facing the South China Sea, on the defense before.

Abdul Rahman said he would be curious to see how the two nations ‘ combined foreign and defense dialogue develops, as this indicates China’s desire to strengthen its defense ties with Malaysia.

It’s still hard to say at this point whether these agreements will have an impact on Malaysia’s attempts to negotiate lower tariffs with the US, he added. Trump regularly issues contradictory reports on tariffs.

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Northern rivers face ‘severe pollution’

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Citizens ‘ organizations urge PM to address the issue.

PUBLISHED: 18 Apr 2025 at 03: 30

A group of civil society organizations and many scientists in Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai have written to Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra urgently requesting state action to address the serious waste in the Kok and Sai river, which originate in Thailand from Myanmar’s Shan State.

The letter makes “alarming” amounts of heavy metal and sand pollution in rivers.

More than 1.2 million people in Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai regions, who rely on the waterways for food and cultivation, are in grave danger of the waste, they warned.

The email lists 14 high-risk mine areas that the Pollution Control Department identified in 2023 and states that” The Kok and Sai streams have become extremely polluted due to illegal mining downstream in Myanmar.”

Five of those locations are close to Thai river. Satellite pictures show extensive property construction in inland areas.

Civil society organizations claim that there hasn’t been a coordinated effort to address transnational pollution despite the growing danger.

The World Health Organization ( WHO ) has warned that long-term cyanide exposure, detected in rivers at levels as low as 0.05 milligrams per kilogram of body weight, can have serious health effects.

Areas along the Kok and Sai river basins experienced catastrophic flash floods and landslides in September 2024, a disaster that was deemed to be unheard of in the area’s history.

Numerous families have lost their homes, goods, and jobs, but extensive restoration efforts have not been made. Residents are angry over the government’s silence with just a month left of the rainy season, the text claims.

It was a typical example of cross-border pollution, according to Suebsakun Kidnukorn, a professor at Mae Fah Luang University.

He claimed that while the pollution is found in Myanmar, Thai communities are also affected by the consequences. ” This is the time for climate politics. The primary minister must discuss this matter with Myanmar’s command and use local forums for dialogue.

He claimed that Thailand should put the issue on the local agenda now that the Malay prime minister is scheduled to meet Myanmar military innovator Min Aung Hlaing in Thailand tomorrow.

The telephone for quick motion was shared by Pianporn Deetes, director of the Southeast Asian Battle for International Rivers and secretary-general of the Hill Area and Community Development Foundation.

These rivers are” transnational.” Upstream Shan State’s silver mining is destroying communities and ecosystems in Thailand. The government may then take action to stop popular mining and land clearing.

Residents were advised early this month by the Environmental and Pollution Control Office to prevent direct contact with the water in both streams because lead and arsenic levels found to be significantly above health thresholds.

Public confidence is declining despite claims from the Provincial Waterworks Authority that treated tap water is still healthy, according to Ms. Pianporn.

The government says the waters is good, but she claims that we feel unsafe. ” We are being advised not to feel river water, but we still consume waters from it. There isn’t a clear path to solving the problem’s root, and in the meantime, these communities that depend on these streams are continuing to devastate.

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South Korea’s strategic autonomy and India – Asia Times

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In today’s rapidly evolving international landscape, the concept of a “pivotal state” is gaining renewed attention. As the global order transitions into a phase of intensified great-power rivalry, particularly between the United States and China, countries that can maintain strategic autonomy while influencing regional and global power dynamics are emerging as vital players.

South Korea has, with its advanced economy, vibrant democracy, strategic geographic position, and growing soft power, all the essential ingredients to play such a role. Yet, under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, Korea has drifted from this potential, becoming overly reliant on one side of the geopolitical spectrum.

Now, however, with the political tide turning and the possibility of Lee Jae-myung ascending to the presidency, Korea has a real opportunity to reset its course and finally step into the role of a true pivotal state.

A pivotal state is not merely a middle power, but a country that actively shapes the balance in great-power politics. Unlike satellite states that gravitate around dominant powers, a pivotal state maintains a strategic center of gravity of its own. It responds flexibly to shifting international dynamics, refuses to become a vassal of larger powers and uses diplomacy and autonomy to enhance its national interests.

Examples of such countries include India and Brazil – states that pursue independent foreign policies and often play both sides when necessary, leveraging their positions for national gain without being fully subsumed into any alliance system. These nations do not just survive the global power competition – they shape it.

Missed opportunity under Yoon

When President Yoon Suk-yeol came to power in 2022, he proclaimed Korea’s ambition to become a “global pivotal state.” At face value, this was a welcome shift from past administrations that often wavered between great powers. Yoon promised bold, principled diplomacy that would elevate Korea’s standing on the global stage.

However, in execution, this vision became more rhetoric than reality. Instead of striking a balance between competing powers, the Yoon administration veered sharply toward unconditional alignment with the United States.

It enthusiastically embraced the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, tightened security and intelligence cooperation with Washington and Tokyo, and made highly visible moves such as hosting extended deterrence dialogues and participating in anti-China rhetoric.

This foreign policy posture, while arguably addressing immediate security concerns, came at the expense of Korea’s strategic autonomy. Moreover, by choosing clear alignment in a world that is increasingly multipolar, Korea forfeited its ability to mediate, influence or act as a bridge between diverging global interests. In doing so, it reduced itself from a potential rule-shaper to a rule-follower.

It alienated not only China – its largest trading partner – but also developing nations that value non-alignment and autonomy. The Yoon administration’s vision of a pivotal Korea turned out to be a paradox: how can a nation claim the mantle of a global pivot while acting as a strategic extension of another great power?

Why now is the time

There are several reasons why now is the right moment for South Korea to have a true strategic autonomy. The global power structure is fragmenting. The Cold War’s rigid bipolarity is long gone. Even the current US–China rivalry is increasingly complicated by the rise of influential players like India, Russia, Turkey, and Brazil.

This emerging multipolarity offers middle powers like Korea a rare and valuable space to maneuver – provided they have the strategic vision and political will to seize it. At the same time, cooperation among great powers is proving unstable and unpredictable.

The shifting dynamics of the war in Ukraine and the behind-the-scenes bargaining between the US and China reveal a hard truth: Smaller nations can be easily sidelined or sacrificed in the name of strategic compromise. South Korea must not allow itself to remain a passive observer while others decide its fate.

Meanwhile, the world’s attention is increasingly focused on Asia. As the geopolitical center of gravity shifts toward the Indo-Pacific, Korea finds itself at a unique crossroads. But to wield influence, it must move beyond the role of a subordinate within a US-led axis and stand as a confident, self-defining actor. India’s example proves this is not only possible – it is necessary.

A balanced approach under Lee Jae-myung?

As South Korea heads toward another electoral shift, the political winds are changing. The opposition Democratic Party, led by Lee Jae-myung, is gaining momentum. Should Lee win the presidency, Korea may finally find the political leadership necessary to realize the true meaning of a pivotal state.

Lee’s foreign policy signals indicate a desire to rebalance Korea’s diplomacy – not by abandoning its alliance with the United States, but by supplementing it with greater strategic flexibility, economic pragmatism and a non-ideological approach to China and the Global South.

In his public speeches, Lee has emphasized cooperation over confrontation, economic sovereignty, and diplomatic pragmatism – principles that align well with the idea of a pivotal state.

Rather than choosing between Washington and Beijing, a Lee-led administration would likely pursue a “both-and” strategy. This includes maintaining the security alliance with the US while re-engaging China diplomatically and economically, expanding relations with ASEAN, Middle Eastern countries, and Eurasian nations and strengthening South Korea’s voice in multilateral forums such as the G20, APEC, BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Lee’s foreign policy is also expected to prioritize technological sovereignty, green diplomacy, and economic diversification – all key areas where Korea can assert its influence globally without taking sides. Under such a strategy, Korea could begin to function as a connector, not just a consumer, of international norms.

Learning from India

India presents a timely and practical example as South Korea seeks to redefine its role in the global order. While maintaining strong strategic ties with the United States, India has consistently upheld its strategic autonomy, refusing to be drawn into any single power bloc.

Instead, it pursues a pragmatic, issue-based diplomacy rooted in national interest and guided by values – without becoming subordinate to any major power.

South Korea can draw important lessons from India’s approach. India’s “Non-Alignment 2.0” strategy allows it to engage deeply with the US while simultaneously participating in multilateral platforms like BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the G20 alongside countries such as China and Russia.

This flexible, multi-vector diplomacy enables India to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape without being locked into rigid alliances. Korea, too, can adopt such a strategy to avoid the risks of bloc-based alignment and preserve its strategic space.

India’s growing engagement with the Global South – particularly in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia – has significantly boosted its international standing. Korea can work with India to develop closer ties with these regions, allowing it to diversify its foreign policy engagements without undermining its existing relationships with rising power blocs.

Both countries can co-invest in development projects, technology transfer, and sustainable infrastructure, thereby expanding Korea’s global footprint and building partnerships that go beyond the traditional US–China binary.

Beyond the pursuit of strategic autonomy, India’s focus on technological and trade sovereignty offers another valuable blueprint for South Korea to consider in strengthening its position as a sovereign and globally autonomous power.

In critical sectors such as semiconductors, clean energy, and digital infrastructure, India has launched initiatives aimed at reducing external dependency and building resilient domestic capabilities. South Korea, facing its own challenges due to overdependence on select global supply chains, can benefit by following a similar path – strengthening self-reliance while remaining globally competitive.

By aligning more closely with India and embracing a broader, multidimensional strategic vision, South Korea can overcome its current limitations and emerge as a more independent, respected actor in both regional and global affairs. Thus, through strategic learning and enhanced cooperation with India in both economic and geopolitical domains, South Korea can strengthen its capacity to emerge as a genuinely global pivotal state.

This growing partnership is not about choosing sides, but about standing together – confidently and collaboratively. Through deeper cooperation and shared leadership, Korea and India can shape a more inclusive, balanced, and multipolar international order, reinforcing one another’s journey toward genuine strategic autonomy.

By following India’s lead, South Korea can reclaim a more self-directed, balanced foreign policy – one that protects its national interests while contributing meaningfully to a more stable world.

The strategic identity Korea urgently needs

To become a true pivotal state and have strategic autonomy , Korea must craft a foreign policy identity grounded in self-determination rather than alignment. This doesn’t mean taking an anti-American or pro-Chinese stance – it means being unequivocally pro-Korea.

At the core of this identity lies the principle of strategic autonomy: South Korea makes decisions based on its own national interests, not according to the expectations or pressures of its allies.

Such an approach requires balanced engagement, meaning South Korea should actively pursue diplomacy with all major powers – especially those in Asia and the Global South – while also playing a constructive role in multilateral forums. At the same time, Korea’s  new diplomacy must be guided by value-based pragmatism. This involves upholding principles like democracy, peace, and the rule of law, while also acknowledging the realities of a diverse international system.

Korea today stands at a historical crossroads. The failures of the Yoon administration to fulfill the promise of a global pivotal state have shown what happens when rhetoric is not matched by strategic independence. But this failure also provides a valuable lesson – that true leadership on the global stage requires courage, balance, and the will to chart one’s own path.

With Lee Jae-myung poised as a serious contender for Korea’s next presidency, the country may have its first real opportunity in decades to shift from alignment to autonomy, from reactive diplomacy to strategic leadership.

The world does not need another follower in the US-China rivalry. It needs a Korea that stands firm, speaks clearly, and acts wisely – a Korea that can finally become the true pivotal state it was always destined to be.

Korea’s moment to reclaim its strategic autonomy has finally arrived – and by looking to India as both a partner and a model, it may discover its clearest path forward and its closest ally in these challenging times.

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When Trump and Xi seek a war-ending trade deal – Asia Times

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As Xi Jinping declares his eagerness to meet with Donald Trump’s White House, the chances of a China-US trade agreement are once more rising.

With obvious pre-conditions, of training. According to reports from Bloomberg and other media outlets, President Xi’s federal wants Trump and his cabinet to tone down the rhetoric, define what precisely Washington wants, and name a certain point person to take the lead of the discussions. On Wednesday, China appointed a new business agent.

Each of these could be a non-starter – or a teaser over time– given US Trump’s predilection for late-night social-media fits and exotic plan shifts from moment to moment. After all, Trump’s taxes on imported goods have increased from 10 % to 145 % at warp speed.

The real issue is not whether Xi and Trump reach a Group of Two industry agreement, though. It’s whether it will amount to anything other than a face-saving practice of rearranging the deckchairs on a sinking business, economic and financial marriage.

Japan can provide some information from its powerful encounter with the Trump 1.0 crew in this regard. Effective because Shinzo Abe, then-Prime Minister, made sure Japan’s bilateral trade negotiations with Trump World were unbroken.

Case in point: Trump was so frightened for a “win” versus America’s long-time rival that he agreed to leave auto industry agreements for another day. Of course, Shigeru Ishiba, the current leader of Japan, was left to face Trump 2.0 in the wake of the scrub of a free-trade agreement.

Trump’s industry representatives and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are now negotiating with Ishiba’s business negotiators, under the direction of Japan’s minister of economic revitalization Ryosei Akazawa.

Immediately, Trump claimed there’s been “big development”. Tokyo may be able to escape once more with a watered-down, face-saving business agreement that doesn’t lose even half as much as Trump may claim, given the chaos caused by Trump’s tariffs and the multi-trillion-dollar decline in US stocks.

However, Xi is aware that China has a little stronger side.

This weekend’s news that gross domestic product exceeded expectations to develop 5.4 % year on year in the first third suggests China is moving into the Trump 2.0 tax neighborhood with good speed. No bursting at all, but not as much as some economists had predicted.

Xi also put on quite a show by retaliating against Trump’s string of tariffs, even increasing China’s levy on US goods to 125 %. In the process, China communicated it’s set to support considerable financial problems before caving to Trump’s needs. And that Team Xi anticipates that Trump’s team will bring their own sugar and agreements.

By calling Trump’s hill, Xi made it clear that he had taken Washington by surprise and forced him to engage in a number of humiliating back-and-forth. It’s fair to ask which market is not getting a carve-out on Trump’s sky-high transfer taxes on Chinese products?

Some policy wonks who are suffering from PTSD from Trump 1.0 are talking about subsidies for farmers in response to China’s punitive taxes on their products. All of this suggests a lack of commitment rather than a high level of suffering.

Today, even the Federal Reserve is calling Trump’s mountain. Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw cold waters on Trump’s reassurance that lower US prices may lessen the harm caused by taxes in a statement on Wednesday.

These are “very important policy changes,” according to Powell. ” There isn’t a present knowledge of how to think about this”.

The issue, according to Powell, is that” the level of the price rises announced so far is substantially higher than anticipated” and that doubt about the potential impact on the economy. That includes family desire and prices falling.

” Jerome Powell only laid down the law with Trump”, says David Russell, world mind of business plan at TradeStation. It was both a distinct warning about recessions and a charter that the Fed won’t allow the White House to implement price reductions.

The Fed faces a rapidly growing problem because of the risk that the US is entering a large inflation-flatflatlining growth period.

As Austan Goolsbee, leader of the Chicago Fed, puts it,” a price is like a bad supply shock. That is a stagflationary impact, which means that it simultaneously worsens both sides of the Fed’s two authority. There is not a common handbook for how the central banks should listen to a stagflationary shock because prices are rising while jobs are lost and progress is slowing.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock adds that” this is a hard set of challenges for economic policy to understand. There is a strong argument to keep monetary policy low in order to stabilize the risks from more inflated prices and a slowing labour market, given the economy’s starting point and with both sides of our mandate expected to be under pressure.

We would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially various time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close, according to Powell, when he said if stagflation became a reality.

This nascent Trump-Fed standoff weakens the White House’s hand heading into China trade talks.

The Trump White House is already being chastised by international investors who are already reliant on US government debt. Credit rating organizations are concerned about the prospect of 10-year yields approaching 4.5 %, as well as Asian central banks, who own US$$ 3 trillion in US Treasuries.

The last time the US bond market flashed such warning signals was March 2020, just as the pandemic was taking hold. &nbsp,

Fortunately, according to Brookings Institution economist Nellie Liang, the Fed’s purchases made at the time to restore market functioning were in line with its monetary policy goals of the time: to stimulate the economy and lower inflation to its target of 2 %.

” It’s possible, however, that the Fed may someday confront the need to purchase Treasury securities at a time when doing so would conflict with achieving its mandate of maximum employment and price stability”, Liang says. The absence of this conflict highlights the value of regulatory changes to improve Treasury market resilience.

The chances of such upgrades are close to zero because US Congress is essentially gridlocked by partisan sniping.

In the meantime, bond vigilantes are letting Trump know that his tariffs are a clear and present danger to US financial stability. And Xi doesn’t like how the US stock market is affecting Trump’s approval ratings with voters, which is a problem Xi doesn’t have.

Advantage Xi’s far more rigid system also makes China less vulnerable to a significant capital flight as investors try to cast their ballots with their feet.

” If doubts about the exceptional status of the dollar were to increase, this would be very credit negative for the US”, says Alvise Lennkh-Yunus, head of sovereign ratings at Berlin-based Scope Ratings.

Unsurprisingly, China’s two leading figures are taking China’s charm offensive on the road. Xi is based in Southeast Asia, which is now his main trading partner.

In Hanoi, Xi and Vietnam’s Communist Party Secretary-General To Lam agreed to” jointly oppose unilateral bullying” amid trade jousting. Trump’s” Liberation Day” announcement on April 2 sent a 46 % tariff to Vietnam.

According to Xinhua’s official news release, Xi stated that” we must strengthen strategic resolve and uphold the stability of the global free trade system as well as industrial and supply chains.”

Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator, told the BBC that Xi’s comments were” a very shrewd tactical move. Trump appears determined to annihilate the trade system, but Xi portrays China as the proponent of rules-based trade and portrays the US as a “reckless rogue nation.”

An” Asian family” that can exploit regional cohesion for greater stability and unity was pushed by Xi in Phnom Penh. Written between the lines in bold font was Trump’s divide-and-conquer strategy targeting economies from the biggest industrialized ones to those in the Global South.

Premier Li Qiang has been managing the phones in China’s second-largest market, Europe. According to the EU side, Li and Ursula von der Leyen discussed China’s crucial role in preventing potential trade diversion caused by tariffs, particularly in those sectors that are already in danger of overcapacity.

Chief executive of Eurizon SLJ, Stephen Jen, an economist, advises against taking China’s economic diplomacy efforts for granted. According to Jen, economies that weren’t aligned with either the US or the Soviet Union’s orbit accounted for only 18 % of global output and 14 % of global trade during the Cold War era.

Nowadays, such third parties, including the EU, play a “much heftier” role — 44 % of global output and 64 % of trade. According to Jen,” Europe holds the key to the ultimate outcome of this US-China rivalry.”

China exported almost the same amount of goods to the EU in 2024, or$ 516 billion, which is almost the same as what it did to the US. Though China ships more to the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) economies, it’s “realistic” to assume that one-third of shipments bound for the US get redirected.

” This process could cascade to effectively lead to the ‘non-aligned’ countries taking the US’ side, leaving China economically isolated,” Jen explains.

Trump 2.0, who may not be aware of these dynamics, can’t seem to impose tariffs on Europe quickly enough. Hence, the outreach efforts by Xi and Li.

Trump, however, may be targeting both friends and foes with direct tariffs and additional taxes on steel, aluminum, and cars in order to advance China’s interests. By some standards, China needs a deal with Trump at the very least to lessen uncertainty. &nbsp,

The effective tariff increase from 11 % in 2024 to 14 % in 2024 will shake up trade dynamics in previously unthinkable ways, according to Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs. Particularly when considering that exports to the US support between 10 million and 20 million Chinese factory jobs.

Demand from ASEAN may be growing, but not fast enough to offset lost American business. Shanghai’s famously busy ports are becoming quiet as idle US-bound tankers crowded the city’s shorelines, according to Caixin.

Despite this, Xi’s China has made it abundantly clear that this will be real negotiations, not the one Trump envisioned.

This could quickly blow up the talks or enable China to get away with its own Japan-like trade deal “light” win. In any case, China may have more cards in this make-a-deal situation than Trump might realize.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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