Thailand is on the verge of a new democratic spring

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The last time voters headed to the polls in Thailand was in 2019, following five years of a repressive military dictatorship. Thai voters spoke nervously of their democratic aspirations and allowed a military-led government into power.

Now, after four years of a functioning parliamentary democracy, Thai voters have roared. In Sunday’s parliamentary election, they appear to have resoundingly rejected the junta and its successor military-proxy parties.

Also read: A resounding vote for change in Thailand

Thailand’s most progressive party, Move Forward, looks set to gain the most seats in the new Parliament. Close behind is the more established and similarly liberal Peua Thai party of the polarizing Shinawatra dynasty.

Following them in third place is Bhumjaithai. This rural-based, more traditional party of patronage politics had recently been the previous government’s coalition partner.

Trailing far behind, in fourth and fifth place, are the two military-proxy parties: Palang Pracharat, headed by former deputy prime minister and army chief Prawit Wongsuwan, and United Thai Nation, headed by current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha, leader of the 2014 coup.

Resistance to military’s role

The result reflects a huge boost in support for Move Forward, which won half as many seats outright in the 2019 election. Now, Move Forward looks likely to take all of but one of the 33 Bangkok seats in Parliament, which in the past was seen as the stronghold of Peua Thai.

It is hard not to wonder whether the strong performance of recently elected Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt, an independent who has set new standards in transparency, accountability and pure hard work, might have affected the choices of Bangkok voters.

Move Forward has a similar leader in the Harvard-educated former businessman Pita Limjaroenrat – someone who is both well-educated and business-minded.

The formation of a new government trenchantly opposed to the involvement of the military in politics seems logical, potentially ushering in a new progressive, democratic era in Thai politics, with Pita as the new prime minister.

This could be transformational for all of Southeast Asia – especially the countries on the mainland. Democratic institutions have taken a battering in the region in recent years, with Myanmar’s 2021 coup and Cambodia’s turn to increasingly autocratic rule under Hun Sen.

The dramatic decline in support for Thailand’s military-aligned incumbent government likely reflects a general sentiment among the Thai people that it was simply time for the military to go.

Prayut has been prime minister since May 2014, when as a military officer he undertook a coup against Yingluck Shinawatra’s democratically elected government. Since then, the Thai people have grown tired of his autocratic style of rule, short temper and mediocre management of the economy.

To speculate further, Thais may feel that the military’s job in overseeing a monarchical transition from Rama IX to Rama X is well and truly now complete.

No guarantees

But the election result also doesn’t guarantee Thailand’s opposition forces will be able to form a government.

The primary challenge facing the leading parties is the illiberal design of the 2017 constitution. Because it contains a clause allowing 250 unelected, junta-appointed senators to participate in a joint sitting to choose the next prime minister, the military-proxy parties can still, in theory, cobble together a coalition to retain power.

If they received the support of the parties that made up the previous government (Bhumjaithai and the Democrats), they could form a ruling coalition with the roughly 170 seats they all won in total in Sunday’s vote, along with the support of the 250 junta-appointed senators.

If this were to occur, they would be a minority government, unable to pass laws without opposition support, and subject to no-confidence motions. But they might hope they could lure away opposition parliamentarians, using various inducements like ministerial positions, to achieve a majority in the lower house.

The second challenge for the opposition parties is forming a democratic coalition. Will Peua Thai accept Pita as prime minister, rather than one its own three candidates, Srettha Thavisin, Paetongtarn Shinawatra or Chaikasem Nitisiri, as the prime-ministerial candidate? Would Peua Thai try to elevate Paetongtarn – the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – into the role?

Another major question is whether Peua Thai would agree to Move Forward’s controversial policy of reforming Thailand’s draconian lèse-majesté law. Move Forward wants to change the law, which criminalizes insulting the monarchy, so it is less vulnerable to being weaponized as a way to attack political opponents. The party insists this is not a step toward becoming a republic.

The chances of the two parties forming a working coalition would be strengthened if they could bring Bhumjaithai into the government. That party has swung between both sides of the political spectrum over the decades.

But this would mean Bhumjaithai accepting the stances of both Move Forward and Peua Thai to roll back Thailand’s controversial decision last year to decriminalize marijuana. Both parties are proposing to restrict use to medical purposes.

Bhumjaithai’s leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, the current health minister and a cannabis advocate, has insisted that changing Thailand’s cannabis law is non-negotiable for his party.

Threat of ‘judicial coup’

The third challenge facing the opposition parties is perhaps the most worrying. This is the possibility the conservative establishment in Thailand will find a way to invalidate the election result through court action, or a “judicial coup,” as it has become known in Thailand.

There are strong precedents for this, as previous progressive parties have been dissolved through court rulings – a misfortune yet to befall any of the conservative parties.

Pita is currently facing a lawsuit related to his possession of shares in a media company. Meanwhile, Peua Thai is facing litigation related to allowing “outsiders” to run its affairs.

There is reason to think we may know the election outcome sooner than in 2019. The Electoral Commission seems to have performed more competently in counting votes this time, and does not have to decide how to implement a complicated formula to allocate party-list seats. This means the joint sitting of Parliament should happen faster and a coalition will soon emerge.

But only then will we have any certainty the people’s voices have truly been heard.

Greg Raymond is a lecturer at the Australian National University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Mekong nations feel record-breaking heat, worsening climate crisis concerns

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As the dry season nears an end in the Mekong region, flashpoints have threatened to send thermometers to the breaking point.

Extreme heat waves battered Southeast Asia from April to May, with temperatures rising upwards of 45°C and setting harsh new records in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. As meteorologists track worldwide warming trends, the UN warns temperatures in Asia-Pacific are rising faster than the global average, adding to a climate crisis that experts say Southeast Asia is not prepared for.

Those already living in poverty are left feeling the heat the most.

“Globally, 2023 is forecast to be the hottest year on record and we have already seen records falling all over Southeast Asia,” said Laurie Parsons, a lecturer in human geography at Royal Holloway, University of London, who focuses on intertwined climate and labour issues. “But in livelihood terms the worst may well still be to come.”

Local Outlook

A primary school student uses a portable fan to keep cool during hot weather in Banda Aceh on May 15, 2023. Photo: Chaideer Mahyuddin/AFP

Much of Southeast Asia falls within the tropical climate zone, meaning temperatures are usually above 25°C year-round and, in the hottest months, can briefly rise above 40°C. 

But even with those historic highs, recent temperatures stand above and beyond. In the Mekong basin, neighboring nations set back-to-back records of sweltering heat through April and May. 

On 14 April, Thailand breezed past their national record, clocking in with a temperature of 45.4°C, which marked the first time the country recorded heat above 45°C. 

A few weeks later, Laos and Vietnam set dual records on 6 May posting 43.5°C and 44.2°C respectively. The next day, Cambodia recorded the hottest day ever in the month of May with a temperature of 41.7°C. 

Experts say it’s only going to get worse.

“Extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity – so will heatwaves and the associated impacts,” said Tiziana Bonapace, the director of disaster risk reduction with the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. 

Bonapace added that such heat waves will likely go hand-in-hand with droughts.

She believes an early warning system to alert the public of impending extreme heat could mitigate its danger to vulnerable populations such as the poor, the elderly and the very young. 

Most regional governments already have ongoing initiatives to mitigate rising temperatures by upping investments in green energy and warning systems for some extreme weather events.

But as it stands, Mekong-region countries don’t yet have the infrastructure and services needed to meet the challenges presented by a warming climate. That’s especially true where heat presents a risk to the livelihoods of society’s most vulnerable, who are more likely to work outdoors or otherwise in manual labour.

“They are people that live on the subsistence line, and they live on daily earnings,” Bonapace said. “Being absent from their daily economic activity means no income for that day.”

The physical risk posed by extreme heat is the combination of heat and humidity which creates the “heat index”, according to Parsons. The index reflects the ability of the body to cool itself, with personal risk increasing with the two related factors. 

“From April to May, temperature generally drops by less than humidity rises, so it can be a very dangerous time for workers doing strenuous work,” said Parsons, who published an investigation last year into how the global garment industry affects vulnerable populations in Cambodia. 

The government there is updating its occupational health and safety regulations, but this remains a work in progress. 

“How comprehensive or effective this turns out to be, we will see,” Parsons said. For vulnerable workers, he added, “as of now, they are largely on their own.”

Regional Outlook

A man covers his head with a towel to shelter from the sun during heatwave conditions in Yangon on May 8, 2023. Photo: Sai Aung Main/AFP

While the effects of climate change are felt around the world, the UN reports that over the past 60 years temperatures in the Asia-Pacific region have increased faster than the global average.

Without decisive action, climate change will increasingly drive poverty and inequality across the region.

Heat waves, which Bonapace classifies as “slow-onset disasters,” are to a large extent predictable. Authorities generally know the areas, timeframe, and people most likely to be affected. 

Even just a 24-hour warning of a heatwave can cut ensuing damages by 30%, Bonapace says. But even with an early warning, without proper social welfare protections the cyclical nature of poverty may keep vulnerable populations at risk.

Those who rely on daily wages may still subject themselves to unsafe working conditions for fear of losing out on a day’s wages, she said. To combat this, Bonapace believes governments should learn from the Covid-19 pandemic and implement a social protection scheme for periods of extreme heat.

A blazing sun streaks across a hazy Cambodian sky. Countries across the Mekong region have experienced unprecedented high temperatures, causing health and climate concerns. Photo: Anton L. Delgado for Southeast Asia Globe.

But for many countries in the region, this will be easier said than done.

With that, rising temperatures are likely to be especially dangerous in countries such as Cambodia where social welfare laws are yet to be implemented and at-risk sectors – including the garment industry, but also agriculture and construction – dominate the national economy.

“Those with the least privilege tend to have the least capacity to choose and shape their environments, so they end up facing the worst impacts of the climate in the short and long term,” Parsons said. “In a country like Cambodia, poverty, climatic hazards and ill health become a vicious cycle.”

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ការ​ចោទ​ប្រកាន់​ពីបទ​អំពើ​ពុក​រលួយ​ ក្នុង​កសិដ្ឋាន​សត្វ​ស្វា​នៅ​កម្ពុជា បន្សល់នូវដាន​ជួញ​ដូរ​សត្វ​ព្រៃ​ជា​សកល

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របង​ស្រោប​ដោយ​បន្លាលលួសបានហ៊ុមបរិវេណ​ក្រុមហ៊ុន Vanny Bio Research ក្នុង​ប្រទេស​កម្ពុជា ដែលបិទបាំង​ប្រតិបត្តិការ​បង្កាត់​ពូជ​សត្វ​ព្រៃ​នៅ​ក្នុង​នោះ។

មានផ្លាកសញ្ញាស្វាគមន៍មួយត្រូវបានបិតនៅក្បែរច្រកទ្វារធំរបស់កសិដ្ឋាននេះ និងត្រូវបានគេសរសេរថា «មិនទទួលយកការសម្ភាសពីស្ថាប័នសារព័ត៌មានណាមួយឡើយ»។

ម្ចាស់កសិដ្ឋាន ​អ្នក​គ្រប់​គ្រង​កន្លែង​នេះ ព្រម​ទាំង​មន្ត្រី​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​កម្ពុជា​ចំនួនពីរ​រូប ​ត្រូវ​បាន​ព្រះរាជអាជ្ញា​សហរដ្ឋ​អាមេរិក ​ចោទ​ប្រកាន់​ពី​បទ​ជួញ​ដូរ​សត្វ​ព្រៃ ​កាល​ពី​ខែ​វិច្ឆិកា។

តាមរយះឯកសាររបស់តុលាការសហព័ន្ធ សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកបានចោទប្រកាន់ថា «បណ្តាញរត់ពន្ធសត្វព្រៃអន្តរជាតិ» នេះ បានប្រើប្រាស់រូបភាពមួយ ដែលស្ថិតក្រោមការជួញដូរស្របច្បាប់ទៅលើសត្វស្វាទុកសម្រាប់បង្កាត់ពូជ ជាហេតុផលក្នុងការរត់ពន្ធសត្វស្វាដែលបានចាប់ពីព្រៃរាប់ពាន់ក្បាល ទៅមន្ទីរពិសោធន៍របស់សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក ក្នុងរយៈពេលយ៉ាងតិចបួនឆ្នាំ។ ឧស្សាហកម្មស្របច្បាប់ដែលមានតម្លៃរាប់ពាន់លានដុល្លារនេះ ផ្ដោតខ្លាំងទៅលើប្រភេទសត្វស្វាកន្ទុយវែង ទុកសម្រាប់ធ្វើការពិសោធផ្នែកវេជ្ជសាស្រ្ត។

អ្នកស្រី Sarah Kite សហស្ថាបនិកនៃអង្គការ Action for Primates បាននិយាយថា «ប្រទេសអាមេរិចគឺជាចំនុចកណ្ដាល នៃពាណិជ្ជកម្មពិភពលោក ទាក់ទងនឹងការប្រើប្រាស់សត្វស្វាសម្រាប់ការស្រាវជ្រាវ។ អ្វីៗដែលកើតឡើងនៅក្នុងរង្វង់ពាណិជ្ជកម្មនាំចូល និងនាំចេញរបស់អាមេរិក នឹងមានផលប៉ះពាល់លើសង្វាក់ផ្គត់ផ្គង់ទូទាំងពិភពលោក។”

ភាពលេចធ្លោរបស់កម្ពុជាលើពាណិជ្ជកម្មនេះ ដែលបានកើនឡើងកំឡុងពេលជំងឺរាតត្បាតកូវីដ ​១៩ ធ្វើឱ្យអ្នកស្រាវជ្រាវមានការងឿងឆ្ងល់ និងចាប់ផ្ដើមមើលទៅលើអាជីវកម្មជួញដូរសត្វស្វាដ៏ស្រពិចស្រពិលរបស់ប្រទេសកម្ពុជា។ ក្រៅពីផលប៉ះពាល់ដល់ប្រព័ន្ធអេកូឡូស៊ី និងចំនួនសត្វស្វាព្រៃដែលថយចុះ អ្នកជំនាញបសុសាស្ត្រនិយាយថា ការលាយលំនូវសត្វ ដែលចាប់ចេញមកពីព្រៃ ជាមួយសត្វចិញ្ចឹមក្នុងកសិដ្ឋាន អាចបង្កហានិភ័យដល់សុខភាពសាធារណៈជាសាកល ដោយវាអាចនាំយកជំងឺ ចម្លងទៅមន្ទីរពិសោធន៍បរទេស។

យោងតាមទិន្នន័យពាណិជ្ជកម្ម សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកបាននាំចូលសត្វស្វារស់ច្រើនជាងគេ ពីប្រទេសកម្ពុជាក្នុងមួយឆ្នាំៗ ដែលត្រូវបានគេចោទប្រកាន់ថា មានសត្វស្វាសរុបចំនួន​​ ៧០,​០០០ ក្បាល។ មកទល់ពេលនេះ គេនៅមិនទាន់ដឹងច្បាស់ថា មានស្វាប៉ុន្មានក្បាល ត្រូវបានគេយកចេញពីព្រៃនោះទេ ប៉ុន្តែព្រះរាជអាជ្ញាបានបង្ហើបថា មានចំនួនដល់ទៅរាប់ពាន់ក្បាលឯណោះ។

សត្វដែលត្រូវបានជួញដូរក្នុងតួរលេខមិនច្បាស់លាស់ សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកគ្រាន់តែជាទីតាំង ទទួលចែកចាយបន្តតែប៉ុណ្ណោះ។ នោះក៏ព្រោះតែមន្ទីរពិសោធន៍នៅទីនោះ តែងតែធ្វើកោសល្យវិច័យសត្វស្វានាំចូលមកពីប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ដើម្បីនាំចេញបន្តនូវតួខ្លួនរបស់សត្វស្វារាប់រាយ ទៅកាន់ប្រទេសកាណាដា និងទូទាំងទ្វីបអឺរ៉ុប។

សកម្មភាពនេះអាចជម្រុញនូវសកម្មភាពខុសច្បាប់ ដែលអាចកើតមាន នៅក្នុងពាណិជ្ជកម្មជួញដូរនូវសត្វប្រភេទនេះ ដោយសត្វស្វាមួយក្បាលទំនងជាត្រូវបានគេកាត់ជាដុំៗ ចាប់តាំងពីឈាម រហូតដល់ខួរក្បាលរបស់ពួកវា សម្រាប់ធ្វើការពិសោធន។ ទោះមិនទាន់ប្រាកដ មន្ទីរពិសោធន៍ដែលនាំចេញសំណាកទាំងនេះឡើងវិញ អាចជាការជួញដូរបន្ត នូវសត្វស្វាដែលចាប់ពីព្រៃក្នុងប្រទេសកម្ពុជាបន្ថែមទៀត ដែលអាចឱ្យអ្នកនាំចូល អាចមើ​លរំលង អំពើពុករលួយដែលត្រូវបានចោតប្រកាន់។

«នេះមិនមែនគ្រាន់តែជាបញ្ហាក្នុងស្រុកទេ ព្រោះនេះជាពាណិជ្ជកម្មអន្តរជាតិ។ ដោយ​សារតែ​ហានិភ័យ​ដែលស្តែងចេញពីសកម្មភាពទាំងនេះ វាជា​ក្តីបារម្ភរបស់ពិភពលោកតែម្តង​»​ អ្នកស្រី Anne-Lise Chaber ជា​អ្នក​ជំនាញ​ផ្នែក​សុខភាព​សាធារណៈ​ និង​ជា​សាស្ត្រាចារ្យ​មកពី​សាកលវិទ្យាល័យ Adelaide របស់​ប្រទេស​អូស្ត្រាលី​ បានលើកឡើង។ ថ្មីៗនេះអ្នកស្រី​ទើប​តែ​បាន​ចេញ​ផ្សាយ​ការ​សិក្សា​មួយ​ស្តី​ពី​ពាណិជ្ជកម្មជួញដូរ​សត្វ​ស្វា​។ 

អ្នកស្រីបានបន្ថែមថា «ពិភពលោកប្រៀបបីដូចជាភូមិមួយ។ ជំងឺកូវីដ១៩ ​បាន​បង្ហាញ​ឱ្យយើងដឹងថា ប្រសិន​បើ​អ្នក​មាន​ជំងឺ​មួយ ដែលកំពុង​កើត​ឡើង ដូចជានៅ​ក្នុង​ប្រទេស​មួយ​ដូច​ជា​ប្រទេស​កម្ពុជា នោះមានន័យថា ឱកាស​នៃ​ការ​រីក​រាល​ដាល​ជុំវិញ​ពិភពលោក គឺមានកម្រិត​ខ្ពស់​ណាស់»។

អាជីវកម្មសត្វស្វា៖ ការជួញដូរសត្វព្រៃពិភពលោក ក្នុងតម្លៃរាប់ពាន់លានដុល្លារ

សត្វស្វាកន្ទុយវែង គឺជាពូជសត្វដែលមានការជួញដូរច្រើនបំផុត អស់រយៈពេលជាច្រើនទសវត្សរ៍មកហើយ ដោយសារតែតម្រូវការប្រើប្រាស់ពួកវា ក្នុងការស្រាវជ្រាវផ្នែកវេជ្ជសាស្ត្រ។

ការពិសោធផ្នែកវេជ្ជសាស្ត្រ ដែលត្រូវបានគេប៉ាន់ស្មានថាមានតម្លៃ ១,២៥  ពាន់លានដុល្លារ ត្រូវបានត្រួតពិនិត្យដោយអនុសញ្ញាពាណិជ្ជកម្ម របស់អង្គការសហប្រជាជាតិ ដែលត្រូវបានគេស្គាល់ថា CITES (សាយតេស) ដែលផ្តល់ភាពស្របច្បាប់ដល់ពាណិជ្ជកម្មតាមរយៈប្រព័ន្ធអនុញ្ញាត បទបញ្ជាសុខុមាលភាពសត្វ តម្រូវការបង្កាត់ពូជ និងច្បាប់ផ្សេងៗទៀត។ ប៉ុន្តែប្រព័ន្ធដែលមានអាយុកាលជិត ៥០ឆ្នាំនេះ បែរមានឈ្មោះមិនសូវល្អ ទាក់ទងចន្លោះប្រហោងផ្លូវច្បាប់ និងកង្វះខាតទិន្នន័យ។

ខណៈពេលដែលប្រទេសកម្ពុជា បានបង្កាត់សត្វស្វាអស់រយៈពេលជាច្រើនឆ្នាំ ជាមួយនឹងការនាំចេញលើកដំបូងទៅកាន់សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកក្នុងឆ្នាំ ២០០៥ ប្រទេសនេះ បានបង្វែរទីផ្សារក្នុងអំឡុងពេលជំងឺរាតត្បាតកូវីដ១៩។

ការផ្ទុះឡើងនៃកូវីដ១៩ នាំឱ្យមានការរីកដុះដាលនៃការនាំចូល និងការនាំចេញជាសាកល ខណៈដែលប្រទេសនានា កំពុងប្រជែងគ្នាដើម្បីបង្កើតវ៉ាក់សាំង។ កាល​ពី​ខែ​កក្កដា សត្វ​ស្វា​ត្រូវ​បាន​គេ​ដាក់​បញ្ចូល​ពី «ងាយ​រងគ្រោះ» ទៅ «ជិត​ផុត​ពូជ» ក្នុង​បញ្ជី​ក្រហម​នៃ​ប្រភេទសត្វ​រង​ការ​គំរាម​កំហែង ដែល​បាន​លើក​ឡើង​ពី «ការ​ប្រើ​ប្រាស់​ជីវសាស្ត្រ» ជា​ការកត្តា​គំរាម​កំហែង​សំខាន់។

កម្ពុជាបានជួញដូរសត្វស្វារស់ជាង ៣៣ ០០០ក្បាល ក្នុងឆ្នាំ ២០២០ ដែលច្រើនជាងពាក់កណ្តាល នៃការជួញដូរសត្វស្វាពិភពលោក ដែលបានកត់ត្រានៅឆ្នាំនោះ។ ក្នុងចំណោម​ស្វា១០​ក្បាល​​ ប្រមាណ​ ៧​ក្បាល​ បញ្ចូនចូល​សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក​។

ក្រុមហ៊ុន Vanny Bio Research ដែលត្រូវបានចោទប្រកាន់ គឺជាអ្នកនាំចេញសត្វស្វាដ៏ធំបំផុតរបស់កម្ពុជា ក្នុងរយៈពេលប៉ុន្មានឆ្នាំចុងក្រោយនេះ។ ក្រុមហ៊ុនមិនបានឆ្លើយតបទៅនឹងសំណើសុំការអត្ថាធិប្បាយទេ ប៉ុន្តែ ការចេញផ្សាយជាសាធារណៈរបស់ក្រុមហ៊ុន បានបដិសេធយ៉ាងខ្លាំងទៅលើការចោតប្រកាន់នានា។ បើយោងតាមទិន្នន័យដែលចេញផ្សាយដោយប្រធានក្រសួងកសិកម្ម រុក្ខាប្រមាញ់ និងនេសាទរបស់កម្ពុជា កសិដ្ឋាននេះបាននាំចេញសត្វស្វារស់ជាង ៤០​,៧០០​ក្បាល ទៅសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកចាប់ពីឆ្នាំ ២០២០ ដល់ឆ្នាំ ២០២២។

ការចោទប្រកាន់ខែវិច្ឆិកា  កើតឡើងបន្ទាប់ពីការចាប់ខ្លួនមន្ត្រីរដ្ឋបាលព្រៃឈើកម្ពុជា ដែលអនុវត្តដោយ CITES ក្នុងប្រទេស នៅសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក ពីបទជួញដូរសត្វព្រៃ។ អ្នកស្រី Kite ចាត់ទុកថាវាជា «សោកនាដកម្មដ៏ហួសចិត្ត» ។

នៅពេលនោះ លោក គ្រី មះផល អនុប្រធានផ្នែកសត្វព្រៃ និងជីវចម្រុះ កំពុងធ្វើដំណើរទៅកាន់កិច្ចប្រជុំអន្តរជាតិមួយ អំពីបទប្បញ្ញត្តិពាណិជ្ជកម្ម​ សម្រាប់ប្រភេទសត្វជិតផុតពូជ។  ថ្នាក់លើរបស់គាត់ លោក កែវ អូម៉ាលីស អគ្គនាយករដ្ឋបាលព្រៃឈើ ក៏ត្រូវបានចោទប្រកាន់ក្នុងដីកានេះដែរ ប៉ុន្តែនៅតែមានសេរីភាពនៅកម្ពុជា។

ព្រឹត្តិការណ៍​ទាំងនេះ​បាន​ធ្វើ​ឲ្យ​មានការ​សង្ស័យ​រឹតតែ​ជ្រៅ ​ទៅ​លើ​ការ​នាំ​ចេញ​ស្វារបស់​កម្ពុជា។ វាក៏បានលើកឡើងសំនួរថ្មីៗផងដែរ អំពីតួនាទីរបស់មន្ទីរពិសោធន៍របស់សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក ដែលអាចនឹងដើរតួក្នុងការរត់ពន្ឋឡើងវិញ នូវសត្វដែលចាប់បានពីព្រៃ តាមរយៈការនាំចេញសំណាកសត្វទាំំងនោះ។

«ប្រសិនបើសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកកំពុងនាំចេញសត្វស្វារស់ ឬសំណាកសត្វ ដែលនាំចូលពីប្រទេសកម្ពុជា នោះច្បាស់ណាស់ មាននូវការព្រួយបារម្ភអំពីប្រភពដើម ថាតើពួកវាអាចត្រូវបានគេចាប់បានពីព្រៃ ឬយ៉ាងណា។ វាមាន​ផល​វិបាក​សម្រាប់​រាល់ពាណិជ្ជកម្ម​ណា​​ដែល​ពាក់​ព័ន្ធ​នឹង​សហរដ្ឋ​អាមេរិក ក៏ដូចជាការ​នាំ​ចូល និង​នាំ​ចេញ​សត្វ​ស្វា​សម្រាប់​ការ​ស្រាវជ្រាវ»។ អ្នកស្រី Kite បាននិយាយ។

សត្វស្វានៅចំកណ្តាល៖ ខ្សែសង្វាក់ផ្គត់ផ្គង់សំណាកសត្វ

ការកើនឡើង និងប្រាក់ចំណេញនៃការធ្វើពាណិជ្ជកម្មបន្តផ្ទាល់ ជារឿយៗគ្របដណ្តប់លើទីផ្សារសំណាក ដែលពង្រីកខ្សែសង្វាក់ផ្គត់ផ្គង់សត្វស្វារបស់កម្ពុជា។

លោក Nedim Buyukmihci សាស្ត្រាចារ្យពេទ្យសត្វមកពីសាកលវិទ្យាល័យ California-Davis ដែលបានចុះផ្សាយការស្រាវជ្រាវកាលពីឆ្នាំ២០២៣ ស្តីពីសុខុមាលភាពសត្វនៅក្នុងបន្ទប់ពិសោធន៍ បាននិយាយថា «មែនទែនទៅ វាមិនមានភាពខុសប្លែកគ្នាទេ រវាងការជួញដូរទាំងពីរបែបនេះ។​ ដើម្បីទទួលបានសំណាកសត្វ គេត្រូវតែមានសត្វរស់នៅកន្លែងណាមួយ។ គេមិនដែលបង្កាត់សត្វ នៅក្នុងបំពង់សាកល្បងវិទ្យាសាស្ត្ត្រទេ។ អ្នក​ទទួល​បាន​ផល​ប៉ះ​ពាល់​ដូច​គ្នា​ ទៅនឹង​ការ​ធ្វើ​ពាណិជ្ជកម្ម​​ផ្ទាល់»។

ដូចនៅក្នុងពាណិជ្ជកម្មផ្ទាល់ដែរ CITES តាមដានការនាំចូល និងនាំចេញសំណាកសត្វទាំងនេះ ដែលត្រូវបានកំណត់​ឈ្មោះជាផ្លូវការថាជា «ផ្នែកណាមួយដែលអាចស្គាល់បាន» នៃសត្វ។ ទិន្នន័យទាំងនោះកម្របញ្ជាក់ផ្នែកនីមួយៗ នៃសត្វស្វាណាស់។ លោក Buyukmihci ដែលជាអ្នកបង្កើតសមាគមបសុពេទ្យដើម្បីសិទ្ធិសត្វ បាននិយាយថា របៀបដែលគេប្រើដើម្បីវាស់ស្ទង់សំណាកទាំងនោះ ផ្តល់តម្រុយថាវា[សំណាក]ជាផ្នែកណាមួយនៃសត្វស្វា។

សំណាក​ដែល​បាន​កត់ត្រា​ជាទម្រង់បរិមាណ (volume) ជា​ធម្មតា​ជា​វត្ថុ​រាវ ដែល​គាត់​និយាយ​ថា​ទំនង​ជា​ឈាម ឬ​សារធាតុរាវ​ក្នុងឆ្អឹងខ្នង។ ចំនែកសំណាកដែលបានកត់ត្រាជាទម្រង់ម៉ាស(mass) គឺប្រហែលជាសរីរាង្គ ដូចជាខួរក្បាល ថ្លើម ឬសាច់ដុំ។

សត្វស្វាកន្ទុយវែងត្រូវបានចាត់ទុកថា ជាសត្វដែលត្រូវបានគេជួញដូរច្រើនបំផុតនៅលើពិភពលោក ដោយសារតែការប្រើប្រាស់របស់វានៅក្នុងការស្រាវជ្រាវជីវវេជ្ជសាស្ត្រ។ កាលពីខែកក្កដាឆ្នាំមុន ប្រភេទសត្វនេះត្រូវបានចុះបញ្ជីពី «ងាយរងគ្រោះ» ទៅ «ជិតផុតពូជ» នៅក្នុងបញ្ជីក្រហមនៃប្រភេទសត្វរងការគំរាមកំហែង ដែលបានលើកឡើងពី «ការប្រើប្រាស់ជីវសាស្រ្ត» ជាការគំរាមកំហែងដ៏សំខាន់មួយ។ រូបថតដោយ Anton L. Delgado សម្រាប់ Southeast Asia Globe។

អ្នកស្រី Kite ដែលធ្លាប់គ្រប់គ្រងការស៊ើបអង្កេតសម្ងាត់នៅក្នុងមន្ទីរពិសោធន៍ស្វា បាននិយាយថា «ប្រសិនបើយើងសម្លឹងមើលប្រភពដើមពិតប្រាកដ ដែលផ្នែករាងកាយទាំងនេះបានមកនោះ វាពិតជាលំបាកណាស់ក្នុងការដឹងថា​ តើមានសត្វស្វាចំនួនប៉ុន្មានក្បាលនៅក្នុងការជួញដូរនោះ»។ អ្នកស្រីបាន​សន្និដ្ឋាន​ចំនួន​សត្វ​ស្វា​រស់​ ​ជាប់​ពាក់ព័ន្ធ​នឹង​ការ​ធ្វើ​ពាណិជ្ជកម្ម​សំណាកសត្វនេះ «អាច​មាន​ចំនួន​ច្រើន»។

ក្នុងរយៈពេល ៤ឆ្នាំ ដែលព្រះរាជអាជ្ញានិយាយថា សត្វស្វាព្រៃ ត្រូវបានគេជួញដូរទៅសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក ក្រោមការធ្វើពាណិជ្ជកម្មស្របច្បាប់​ មន្ទីរពិសោធន៍នៅទីនោះ បានដើរតួជាអ្នកផ្គត់ផ្គង់[បន្ត] សំណាកសត្វស្វាពីកម្ពុជាដ៏សំខាន់ សម្រាប់បណ្តាប្រទេសនៅទូទាំងលោកខាងលិច។

នេះ​ជា​ការ​ធ្វើ​ពាណិជ្ជកម្ម​ដើម្បី​រក​ប្រាក់​ចំណេញ ប៉ុន្តែ​វា​មិន​ច្បាស់​ថា ​ប្រាក់​ចំណេញ​នោះ ​មាន​ទំហំធំ​ប៉ុនណា​ទេ។

យោងតាមទិន្នន័យពាណិជ្ជកម្មរបស់ CITES អ៊ីតាលីបាននាំចូលសំណាកចំនួនជិត ៤១,០០០សំណាក ជាចំនួនច្រើនជាងគេ តាមការនាំចេញដ៏ធំចំនួនពីរ ក្នុងឆ្នាំ ២០២០ និង ២០២១។ គ្មានឯកតានៃការវាស់វែងណាមួយ ត្រូវបានគេកត់សម្គាល់ទេ។

ត្បិតមិនមែនជាអ្នកនាំចូលច្រើន បើគិតតាមចំនួនដង ចក្រភពអង់គ្លេស ជាប្រទេសដែលនាំចូលញឹកញាប់បំផុត ជាមួយនឹងការដឹកជញ្ចូនជិត ២០ដង ចាប់ពីឆ្នាំ ២០១៨ ដល់ឆ្នាំ ២០២១។

ប្រទេសកាណាដា​បាន​នាំ​យក​សំណាក​ស្វា ប្រភពដើម​ពីកម្ពុជា​ជាង ២៦ ៥០០​មីលីលីត្រ ពី​ឆ្នាំ ២០១៧ ដល់​ឆ្នាំ ២០១៩ ដែល​ជា​បរិមាណ​ធំ​ជាង​ប្រទេស​ដទៃ​ទៀត​ ដែល​ធ្វើ​ពាណិជ្ជកម្ម​ជាមួយ​សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក។

ក្នុងរយៈពេលដូចគ្នានោះ ជាលើកដំបូងដែលត្រូវបានកត់ត្រាដោយ CITES កាណាដាក៏បាននាំចូលសត្វស្វារស់ជាង ២ ០០០ក្បាល ដោយផ្ទាល់ពីប្រទេសកម្ពុជាផងដែរ។ លើសពីនោះ មន្ទីរពិសោធន៍កាណាដាបានទិញសត្វស្វារស់ចំនួន ១៥៩ក្បាល បន្ថែមទៀតពីសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក ដែលមានដើមកំណើតមកពីប្រទេសកម្ពុជា។

លោក Daan Van Uhm សាស្ត្រាចារ្យផ្នែកឧក្រិដ្ឋកម្មនៅសាកលវិទ្យាល័យ Utrecht ប្រទេសហូឡង់ ដែលបានសិក្សាអំពីការនាំចូលស្វារបស់សហភាពអឺរ៉ុប បាននិយាយថា «តាមទស្សនៈរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ វាពិបាកណាស់ ក្នុងការចោទសួរពីភាពស្របច្បាប់នៃសត្វជាក់លាក់មួយ បើមើលតែលើឯកសារ។ នេះ​គឺ​ជា​​ទំនួល​ខុស​ត្រូវ​​ប្រទេស​ដើមច្រើនជាង … ដើម្បី​ស្វែងយល់​ពី​ភាព​ស្រប​ច្បាប់​នៃ​ពាណិជ្ជកម្ម»។

ជុំវិញពាណិជ្ជកម្មស្វា៖ ការបង្កាត់ និងកសិដ្ឋាននៅកម្ពុជា

ដោយសារកម្ពុជានាំមុខទីផ្សារស្វាពិភពលោក ការចោទប្រកាន់ដ្ឋាភិបាល និងកសិដ្ឋានស្វាដ៏ធំបំផុតរបស់ប្រទេស បានធ្វើឱ្យមានការសង្ស័យលើសង្វាក់ពាណិជ្ជកម្មទាំងមូល។

មន្ត្រី​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​បាន​បដិសេធ​យ៉ាង​ម៉ឺងម៉ាត់ ​ចំពោះ​ការ​ចោទ​ប្រកាន់​អំពើ​ពុករលួយនេះ។

ជាទូទៅ អង្គការឃ្លាំមើល ដូចជាអង្គការតម្លាភាពអន្តរជាតិ បានរកឃើញថា អំពើពុករលួយជាជំងឺរាតត្បាតនៅកម្ពុជាជាយូរណាស់មកហើយ ដោយជាប្រចាំ ស្ថិតក្នុងចំណោមចំណាត់ថ្នាក់ចុងតារាងនៅលើ «សន្ទស្សន៍នៃការយល់ឃើញអំពីអំពើពុករលួយប្រចាំឆ្នាំ» របស់ខ្លួន។

ទោះបីជាយ៉ាងណាក៏ដោយ ការកើនឡើងនៃការនាំចេញស្វា បានធ្វើឱ្យអ្នកស្រាវជ្រាវភ្ញាក់ផ្អើល។ ការរកឃើញនៃការសិក្សាឆ្នាំ ២០២៣ បង្ហាញពីភាពមិនគួរឱ្យជឿ ដែលថាប្រទេសកម្ពុជា កំពុងបំពេញតម្រូវការទីផ្សារ ដោយស្របច្បាប់។

លោក Chaber អ្នកនិពន្ធជាន់ខ្ពស់នៃការសិក្សានេះ រួមជាមួយនឹងអ្នកស្រាវជ្រាវផ្សេងទៀត មកពីសាកលវិទ្យាល័យ Adelaide បាននិយាយថា «ការស្រាវជ្រាវរបស់យើង កំពុងសួរសំណួរច្រើនជាងការផ្តល់ចម្លើយ។ យើងកំពុងសួរថា តើការជួញដូរស្របច្បាប់​នេះ គឺជាចន្លោះប្រហោង សម្រាប់ពាណិជ្ជកម្មខុសច្បាប់មែនទេ? យើង​ផ្តល់​នូវ​ធាតុផ្សំ​នៃ​ចម្លើយនេះ ​ព្រោះ​តួរលេខ​ដែល​ផ្តល់​ឲ្យ​ CITES មិន​ត្រូវ​គ្នា​នឹង​សមត្ថភាព​កសិដ្ឋាន[បង្កាត់ស្វា] ​របស់​កម្ពុជា»។

ទន្ទឹមនឹងក្តីកង្វល់ផ្នែកច្បាប់ទាំងនេះ លោក Chaber ក៏បានចង្អុលបង្ហាញអំពីហានិភ័យ ដែលអាចមានចំពោះសុខមាលភាពសាកល នៃការលាយសត្វស្វាចាប់ពីព្រៃ ជាមួយសត្វស្វាដែលបង្កាត់។ នៅពេលដែលមានការចាប់ផ្តើមនៃខ្សែសង្វាក់ផ្គត់ផ្គង់សកល ដែលតភ្ជាប់ប្រទេសជាច្រើន ការផ្ទុះជំងឺនៅក្នុងកសិដ្ឋានធំដូច Vanny Bio Research អាចមានផលវិបាកជាអន្តរជាតិ។

ឯកសារសាធារណៈតែមួយគត់ ដែលមានព័ត៌មានអំពីកន្លែងបង្កាត់ពូជក្នុងប្រទេស គឺជាលិខិតបែកធ្លាយឆ្នាំ ២០១៤ ពីអាជ្ញាធរគ្រប់គ្រង CITES នៅកម្ពុជា ដែលត្រូវបានដឹកនាំដោយ លោក អូម៉ាលីស ដែលត្រូវបានចោទប្រកាន់។

លិខិត​នោះ​បាន​បញ្ជាក់​ថា កសិដ្ឋាន​ស្វាកំពុង​ប្រតិបត្តិការ​ទាំង​ប្រាំមួយ ​របស់​ប្រទេស​កម្ពុជា ​មាន​សត្វ​ស្វា​សរុប​ចំនួន​ជិត ៥៦,០០០ ក្បាល​ក្នុង​ឆ្នាំ ២០១៤ ដែល​ជា​ឆ្នាំ​ដែល​ព្រះរាជាណាចក្រ​កម្ពុជា ​បាន​នាំ​ចេញ​បាន​ចំនួនប្រហែល ៥ ០០០ក្បាល ប៉ុណ្ណោះ។

ដោយផ្អែកលើចំនួនទាំងនេះ អ្នកស្រាវជ្រាវបានគណនាថា កសិដ្ឋាននឹងត្រូវការបង្កាត់ពូជស្ទើរតែទ្វេដង អោយដល់ចំនួនប្រហែល ១០៣ ០០០ក្បាល ដើម្បីអាចនាំចេញប្រហែល ៣៣, ០០០ក្បាល នៅឆ្នាំ២០២០។

ពួកគេបាននិយាយថា នោះទំនងជាការប៉ាន់ប្រមាណរបស់ក្រុមអភិរក្ស ដោយផ្អែកលើកត្តារួម ទាំងអត្រាការស្លាប់របស់ស្វា និងអត្រាមានកូនរបស់ពួកវា។

« ​មើល​ឃើញ​ការ​កើន​ឡើង​ក្នុង​រយៈ​ពេល​ខ្លី​បែប​នេះ វា​ស្ទើរ​តែ​ភ្ញាក់​ផ្អើល​ដល់​ចំណុច​ដែល​អ្នក​ស្ទើរ​តែ​ត្រូវ​សួរ៖ ប្រសិន​បើ​វា​ជា​ការ​ពិត ពួក​គេ​កំពុង​ធ្វើ​អ្វី​មួយ​មិន​គួរ​ឲ្យ​ជឿ។ ហើយប្រសិនបើវាមិនមែនជាការពិតទេ នោះពួកគេកំពុងធ្វើអ្វីមួយដែលគួរឱ្យសង្ស័យ‍‍‍‌‌‌‌‌‌»។ អ្នកស្រី Regina Warne អ្នកដឹកនាំការស្រាវជ្រាវបាននិយាយ។

បន្ថែមទៅលើការសង្ស័យរបស់អ្នកស្រាវជ្រាវ គឺរបៀបដែលកសិដ្ឋានធ្វើការនាំចេញ ក្នុងទំហំទ្វេដងក្រោយឆ្នាំ២០១៩ នៅពេលដែលសត្វស្វាតិចជាង ១៤,០០០ក្បាល ត្រូវបានជួញដូរ។ យោងតាមទិន្នន័យរបស់ CITES កម្ពុជារក្សាបាននូវកម្រិតខ្ពស់នៃការនាំចេញនេះក្នុងឆ្នាំ ២០២១ ដោយបានជួញដូរសត្វស្វាចំនួន ​​៣១,០០០​ក្បាល។

អ្នកស្រី Warne បាននិយាយថា «ការធ្វើការគណនាទាំងនេះ ត្រូវការពេលយូរ និងស្មុគ្រស្មាញ ដើម្បីទៅដល់តួលេខ ដែលអាចផ្តល់ឱ្យយើងនូវចម្លើយ។ វាមានសារៈសំខាន់ណាស់ក្នុង ការបង្កើតអោយចេញនូវរូបភាពទាំងមូល ដើម្បីអាចជំរុញថាតើបញ្ហានេះមានសារៈសំខាន់យ៉ាងណា។»

មិនមែនជាស្វារបស់ខ្លួន ក៏មិនមែនជាបញ្ហារបស់ខ្លួន៖ ការជួញដូរនៅតែបន្ត ពេលដែលការសង្ស័យកាន់តែជ្រៅ

វា​មិន​ច្បាស់​ទេ​ថា​តើ​ការ​ផ្លាស់​ប្តូរ​គោល​នយោបាយ​ឬ ​បទ​ប្បញ្ញត្តិ​ជាក់ស្តែង​ បាន​កើត​ឡើង​ នៅតាម​កសិដ្ឋាន​របស់​ប្រទេស​កម្ពុជា​ឬ​យ៉ាង​ណា។

លោក ណៅ​ ធួក ប្រធានអាជ្ញាធរគ្រប់គ្រង CITES ថ្មីនៅកម្ពុជា បានសរសេរក្នុងអ៊ីមែលមកកាន់ Southeast Asia Globe ថា «យើងនឹងចាត់វិធានការតឹងរ៉ឹងជាងមុន ដើម្បីធ្វើឱ្យប្រាកដថា កសិដ្ឋានទាំងអស់អនុវត្តតាមច្បាប់ជាតិ ក៏ដូចជាតម្រូវការរបស់ខាង CITES»។

គាត់បានសរសេរថា វិធានការទាំងនោះ នឹងរួមបញ្ចូល «ការត្រួតពិនិត្យសម្ភារៈបរិក្ខារ» ក៏ដូចជាធ្វើឱ្យប្រាកដថាសត្វស្វា «កើតនៅក្នុងកសិដ្ឋាន» ហើយមិនត្រូវបានគេសង្ស័យថា ត្រូវបានគេចាប់សត្វព្រៃនោះទេ។

Vanny Bio Research គឺជាអ្នកផ្គត់ផ្គង់សត្វស្វាកន្ទុយវែងដ៏ធំបំផុតនៅក្នុងប្រទេសកម្ពុជា ដែលបានចាប់ផ្តើមគ្របដណ្តប់ទីផ្សារពិភពលោក សម្រាប់សត្វប្រភេទនេះ បន្ទាប់ពីការផ្ទុះឡើងនៃ កូវីដ ១៩ អស់រយៈពេល ៣ ឆ្នាំចុងក្រោយនេះ។ កាលពីខែវិច្ឆិកា បុគ្គលិកចំនួនប្រាំមួយនាក់ ត្រូវបានចោទប្រកាន់ពីបទជួញដូរសត្វព្រៃ។ រូបថតដោយ Anton L. Delgado សម្រាប់ Southeast Asia Globe។

ទាំងនេះគឺជាតម្រូវការអនុវត្តមូលដ្ឋាន ដែលកំណត់ដោយ CITES ។ ប្រសិនបើរដ្ឋបាលព្រៃឈើចាត់ទុកវិធានការទាំងនេះជាវិធានការថ្មី គេមិនច្បាស់ថា មានវិធានការធ្វើអ្វីខ្លះទេចាប់តាំងពី Vanny Bio Research ត្រូវបានដាក់ឱ្យដំណើរការ ក្នុងឆ្នាំ២០០៤។

ខណៈពេលដែលការគ្រប់គ្រងអាចមិនមានការផ្លាស់ប្តូរ ការពិភាក្សាអំពីការចោទប្រកាន់ ឬឧស្សាហកម្មស្វារបស់កម្ពុជា បានក្លាយជាប្រធានបទក្ដៅ ក្នុងចំណោមអ្នកអភិរក្សសត្វព្រៃ។

តំណាងមកពី សមាគមអភិរក្សសត្វព្រៃ (Wildlife Conservation Society) សម្ព័ន្ធមិត្តសត្វព្រៃ (Wildlife Alliance) អង្គការសត្វព្រៃ និងរុក្ខជាតិអន្តរជាតិប្រចាំកម្ពុជា (Fauna Fauna & Flora International) អង្គការអភិរក្សអន្តរជាតិ (Conservation International) និងអង្គការ WWF-Greater Mekong ទាំងអស់ បានបដិសេធមិនធ្វើអត្ថាធិប្បាយលើប្រធានបទនេះទេ ដោយចង្អុលទៅភាពរសើបនៃនយោបាយ។ WWF ប្រចាំកម្ពុជាបាននិយាយ ប៉ុន្តែមិនច្រើនទេ។​

ការិយាល័យនេះបានសរសេរមកកាន់ Globe ថា «ការជួញដូរសត្វព្រៃនៅតែជាឧក្រិដ្ឋកម្មធំដ៏ធ្ងន់ធ្ងរនៅទូទាំងពិភពលោក។ កម្ពុជា​ជា​ភាគី ​​ដែល​បាន​ផ្តល់​សច្ចាប័ន​ពី CITES។ ដូច្នេះ​ការ​ជួញ​ដូរ និង​រត់ពន្ឋសត្វ​ខុស​ច្បាប់ ​គឺ​ផ្ទុយនឹង​ច្បាប់»។

រាយការណ៏បន្ថែមដោយ ឡាយ សុផាន់ណា

អត្ថបទនេះត្រូវបានផលិតឡើងដោយសហការជាមួយ Kontinentalist ដោយមានការគាំទ្រពី បណ្តាញស៊ើបអង្កេតព្រៃទឹកភ្លៀង របស់មជ្ឈមណ្ឌល Pulitzer ។

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Exchanging views on crypto: Exclusive interview with Coinhako’s co-founder and CEO, Yusho Liu | cryptocurrency, crypto, coinhako, founder, exclusive interview, yusho liu, singapore, digital assets | FinanceAsia

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From the fallout of FTX in November 2022, to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and other US lenders associated with start-up clients, the last few months have been challenging for the crypto industry.

Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange, Coinhako, however, remains optimistic in terms of its industry outlook as sector participants focus on “rebuilding trust and faith” across the digital asset universe.

Coinhako was conceptualised in 2014 and started off as a bitcoin wallet service for Singaporeans. Today, it is a multi-currency trading platform for cryptocurrencies and is licensed, regulated and headquartered in the city-state.

Receiving its Major Payment Institution licence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in May 2022, the firm is one of nine financial institutions in the market permitted to provide Digital Payment Token (DPT) services.

Confident about Singapore’s future as a Web3 hub, its team wants to play a part in growing the market’s ecosystem. To do so, the company founders recently launched Berru.co, a separate entity that seeks to support Web3 start-ups as they navigate setting up in the city.

In this interview, Coinhako’s co-founder and CEO, Yusho Liu speaks to FinanceAsia about the challenges faced by the crypto industry; the future of Singapore as a digital asset hub; and where exactly the company has its sights set on next.

Excerpts from the interview have been edited for clarity and brevity.

FA: What’s your take on the cryptocurrency market and what developments are you focussed on?

2023 is the year of reset. With the developments of the last few months and bad actors bringing the industry back several steps, we need to rebuild trust and faith in the sector.

Beyond this, we are seeing more regulatory clarity from the likes of the Hong Kong and EU authorities, which paves the way for Asia and Europe to lead when it comes to innovation in the space.

Given that Washington’s current regulatory environment is less hospitable – coupled with the issues faced by the wider US tech industry, it will be challenging for innovation to emerge from the market.

FA: Was Coinhako exposed to any of the US banks that recently collapsed?

We had zero exposure to Silvergate and SVB. We did have some exposure to Signature Bank, but no money parked there. The collapse of these banks has affected many companies but thankfully, our strongest banking relationships are based in Asia.

FA: Is Coinhako looking to raise funds to expand further? How do you view the fundraising environment?

Overall, global and regional venture capital (VC) firms have poured record amounts of money into Southeast Asian technology companies because they consider them to be at the next frontier of growth and these countries have shown very high rates of adoption and interest in digital assets. They have focussed less on companies based in more mature, traditional markets, such as the US, Europe, China, South Korea or Japan.

However, it is currently a challenging climate and investments into crypto start-ups or in the broader technology space have slowed down. While we are continuing conversations with investors, we do not think this is the right timing or environment in which to be actively fundraising.

FA: Do you have any expansion plans?

We do have plans to expand, but this year our focus is on embedding deeper into Singapore, because we think the city-state is going to be a relevant crypto hub, regardless of what the rest of the world is doing.

We see a lot of Web3 founders building a nexus in the market. There is an influx of start-ups looking to establish their presence in Singapore and we’ve set up a separate, professional advisory entity, Berru.co, to support them. Since inception this year, we’ve connected with 10 or more clients and hope to grow this multi-fold further down the road.

Drawing on Coinhako’s experience since entering the market in 2014, we want to help founders navigate the crypto landscape. We’ve done the legwork and we know what works and what doesn’t – whether that be related to finance, accounting, tax or legal considerations. This is in line with Singapore’s status as a hub, and as such, we want to make sure that companies can develop easily. A bad user experience would likely make these founders consider going elsewhere.

FA: Where else in Asia do you see opportunity?

We are watching developments in Hong Kong, with the government having recently come up with a crypto framework to foster growth in the industry. But Hong Kong is just one of the markets we’re looking at for expansion, alongside other countries in Southeast Asian and the broader Asia region.

Coinhako has a domicile-registered licence in Singapore and the beauty of being based here, is that we can use it as a centre from which to reach the rest of the region.

FA: What’s your view on Singapore’s future as a crypto hub, given that many peers have relocated to Dubai?

I’ve always said that time will tell the story.

Dubai was a hot spot when its authorities announced updated licensing frameworks. But I think that, to date, we haven’t really seen or heard much about crypto exchanges moving to the market, except for Bybit, that is trying to establish global headquarters there.

The reality is that Dubai is a regional hub for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), but if you’re trying to establish a global or Asian base, Singapore might be more suitable.

FA: Is Dubai perceived to be friendlier from a regulatory perspective, compared to Singapore?

I think it’s important to differentiate between what people say, versus what people do.

From our perspective, we don’t see many licensed entities going to Dubai, but we’re seeing unlicensed entities go there to try to obtain a licence.

FA: How optimistic are you about the growth of the Web3 and crypto industries in Asia?

We remain optimistic about the growth of the Web3 sector, in general. Yes, the industry is volatile, but most nascent industries are.

Of course, where money is involved, so too will there be bad actors. And indeed, we are seeing more overlap between the tech and finance industries.

However, as long as builders continue to come in to develop purposeful technology and applications – and good people enter the space, we remain positive.
 

¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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Mekong squeeze tests China’s good neighbor narrative

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China claims to be a uniquely benevolent international actor—a great power that, unlike other great powers past and present, does not practice “power politics” (self-interested bullying of smaller states) and is not “selfish” or warlike.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) government styles itself as the custodian of principles that, if implemented, would excise international relations of conflict and injustice.

Smaller neighbors to China’s south particularly fear domination by a strong China. To assuage their concerns, Beijing proclaims that it “opposes the strong bullying the weak” and supports “building a world of shared prosperity and promoting common development of all countries through every country’s development.”

The issue of managing fresh water resources provides a rigorous practical test of these sweet-sounding PRC assurances. Three major Southeast Asian rivers—the Mekong, the Salween, and the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy)—originate in the PRC-controlled Tibetan plateau.

Even with this geographic advantage, China has insufficient water. Chinese make up 20% of the world’s population, but their country contains only 6 or 7% of the world’s fresh water supply. The good-neighborliness promised by Beijing’s official diplomatic rhetoric collides with the permanent scarcity of a vital resource.

Not surprisingly, the latter wins out in actual PRC policy practice. But while unswervingly serving its own self-interest, Beijing also employs familiar methods to limit damage to the PRC’s desired international image.

Underneath the ceremonial public statements, the actual Chinese belief is that China owns the Lancang and that Chinese people have the right to take or use the water as they wish. They don’t think of it as a regional resource to be shared equitably with their neighbors.

China’s official position, repeated by PRC officials such as Ke Yousheng, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, is that “we should also respect the legitimate rights and interests of riparian countries in the rational development and utilization of water resources, and take care of each others’ interests and concerns.”

The reality is that Beijing prioritizes taking care of Beijing’s interests, with little “respect” for the interests and concerns of downstream neighbors.

Before arriving in Southeast Asia as the Mekong, the river flows through PRC territory as the Lancang. China operates 11 hydropower dams along the Lancang, with another 95 dams on tributaries that feed into the river. The Chinese dams harm the livelihoods of millions of people in the downstream Southeast Asian countries in two ways.

First, the dams remove sediment, which includes nutrients that helps plants grow, from the waters flowing through them. As a consequence, rice fields that use Mekong water for irrigation are becoming less productive.

Second, by impounding or releasing large amounts of water, the dams can cause or worsen droughts or floods downstream. In 2019, Chinese dams held back such an immense amount of water that downstream countries suffered a severe drought while the Lancang section of the river enjoyed unusually large water levels.

The Thai side of the Mekong River in the Golden Triangle in Chiang Rai province, with Myanmar in the background. Photo: AFP / Lillian Suwanrumpha

Conversely, the Chinese dam operators sometimes open the floodgates during dry seasons without warning, making the river level downstream rise by several meters overnight and causing massively damaging floods. China is also compounding these negative effects by building dams in the downstream countries that will supply electricity to China.

Chulalongkorn University Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak argued in 2021 that Chinese officials adjust the flow of water into the Mekong as a diplomatic tactic—for example, releasing more water as a gift before an important meeting between Chinese and Southeast Asian officials. “It’s very clear that the Chinese are using the dams for political leverage,” he said.

Reminiscent of its engagement with ASEAN to advance Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, Beijing uses its influence over a regional organization to manage the political problem of Chinese dams disrupting the Mekong.

In 1995, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos signed an Agreement on the Cooperation and Sustainable Development of the Mekong River and founded the Mekong River Commission (MRC). China declined to join, thus avoiding the agreement’s obligations.

Since then the MRC has criticized Chinese dam-building and demanded more information about the operations of dams in China that affect the flow of the river. Beijing countered by establishing an alternative organization, the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) forum, in 2016.

As Hoang Thi Ha, an analyst at Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, notes, “The LMC is a prime example of Sino-centric multilateralism, in which China is the one who sets the rules and frameworks.”

For instance, the LMC sponsors research projects that highlight the negative impacts of climate change, but not the problems caused by dams, helping Beijing divert criticism away from its own behavior.

The other important aspect of PRC damage control is the creation of alternative narratives that fight back against accusations that the PRC has acted dishonorably. The issue of the Lancang dams has given rise to several examples.

Beijing offers up the typical colonialist argument that its increased influence and economic penetration result in blessings for the region rather than exploitation: “China is solidly promoting Chinese-style modernization, which will bring new benefits to the development of the countries along Mekong River.”

Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, China faced outside criticism for its reluctance to share key data, presumably out of fear it would make the PRC government look bad. Beijing has responded by insisting that China has been extraordinarily transparent.

Similarly, answering complaints that China does not publicize information about Lancang River water storage and release by Chinese dams (which the Chinese government considers a national security secret), government functionaries have retorted that China “provided hydrological data of Lancang River free of charge during flood season to MRC for 15 consecutive years [since 2002].”

That data was wholly inadequate; it included only rainfall and water level information from two Chinese-operated hydrological stations, and only for part of the year. China agreed to release additional information starting in 2020 only under outside pressure.

The construction of a hydropower dam by the state-owned SinoHydro company is one of many underway along the Lancang River in China. Photo by Luc Forsyth/Mongabay
The construction of a hydropower dam by the state-owned SinoHydro company is one of many underway along the Lancang River in China. Photo: Twitter

PRC media opportunistically called it “a major step taken by China that fully demonstrates the country’s goodwill and sincerity as a responsible upstream neighbor.” Outside analysts continue to question the accuracy and timeliness of the data provided by the PRC government.

The “major step” of releasing additional data resulted from an April 2020 report in which a US-based environmental watchdog organization used satellite data to expose the extent of downstream damage caused by China’s dams.

The PRC government responded to this embarrassing revelation with a three-headed alternative narrative.

The first point of this narrative was that the study defaming Chinese dams was scientifically flawed. Secondly, PRC commentators argued that Chinese dams actually help the downstream countries by evening out the flow of water. In particular, these commentators said, the dams made the drought of 2018-2019 less severe for Southeast Asia.

Finally, Chinese media and officials attributed criticism of the dams to a US anti-China agenda. A PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson called the 2020 report a “malicious move to drive a wedge between” China and its neighbors.

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Luo Zhaohui claimed that “For political purposes, some countries outside the region have repeatedly used the Mekong water resources issue to spread rumors and stir up trouble, alienating all parties and undermining sub-regional cooperation.”

This allegation is consistent with PRC strategic communication about the South China Sea dispute. In that case, Beijing argues there would be no disharmony between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors if the United States was not “stirring up trouble.”

Beijing might be able to have it both ways with the Chinese domestic audience, persuading them that their government can provide water and electricity while simultaneously being a “good neighbor.”

But for China’s actual neighbors, this is increasingly non-credible, as is the notion of PRC exceptionalism. 

Denny Roy ([email protected]) is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu, specializing in strategic and international security issues in the Asia-Pacific region.

This article was originally published by Pacific Forum. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.

PacNet commentaries and responses represent the views of the respective authors. Alternative viewpoints are always welcomed and encouraged.

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Malaysia Centre for 4IR to accelerate nation’s digital economy and green energy transition

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Partners World Economic Forum to establish Malaysia Centre for 4IR
Thematic focus on digital transformation and green energy transition

The Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Malaysia (Malaysia Centre for 4IR) was officially launched yesterday by the Minister of Economy, Rafizi Ramli and the President of the World Economic Forum (WEF), Børge Brende.
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Singapore digital banks behind the regulatory times

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The digital banking ecosystem among Southeast Asia’s approximately 687 million inhabitants is diverse.

Some ASEAN members, including the more developed ASEAN-5 economies and Brunei, have well-consolidated financial services sectors, while others — especially in their rural areas — have large unbanked populations. Traditional banks and fintech start-ups have increasingly turned to digital banking to solve this problem but various issues demand greater regulatory oversight.

Digital banks have proliferated across Southeast Asia and financial authorities in Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines are seeking to incentivize financial innovation by supporting fintech growth without compromising financial stability. Some of these initiatives include rules for digital wallets, peer-to-peer lending, application programming interfaces, licensing frameworks for digital banks and regulatory sandboxes.

Digital banking adoption is influenced by numerous factors including unmet customer needs, technology adoption, talent and national identification tech systems. The World Bank estimated that the region’s connectivity rate of 133% contrasts with only 27% of the population having a bank account. It is estimated that 80% of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, and 30% of Malaysia and Thailand are unbanked.

Traditional banks such as the United Overseas Bank and Commerce International Merchant Banks have increasingly leveraged technology to compete with online-only banks and fintech start–ups. But with increasing mobile connectivity, monetary authorities — including the Monetary Authority in Singapore — have leaned towards licensing digital-only banks and nurturing fintech start-ups to compete with traditional banks.

The number of fintechs in Southeast Asia increased from 34 to 1,254 between 2000-2022. Southeast Asian fintechs have a cumulative total of US$4.8 billion of equity funding — the largest share of these start-ups located in Singapore.

Singapore’s position as a financial hub and the region’s leading digital economy for tech-driven innovation makes it an ideal choice to observe the motivations and challenges for technological transformation in financial services.

In December 2020, the Singaporean Monetary Authority awarded digital full bank licenses to GXS Bank and Sea Limited’s Mari Bank and gave significantly rooted foreign bank privileges to Trust Bank to create competition for traditional incumbents and encourage financial innovation and digital banking.

These initiatives prompted the three biggest traditional banks in Singapore — namely the Development Bank of Singapore (DBS), Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) — to accelerate their transformation processes. With high overheads, traditional banks must transform to compete with fintechs in terms of costs, products and services.

DBS approached this challenge in its journey toward being a tech-minded company by collaborating with cloud computing provider Amazon Web Services to retrain its staff in digital tools, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning. Over 3,000 DBS employees — including senior executives — were trained in innovative technologies.

DBS differentiated itself by developing 85% of its technology in-house — rather than outsourcing — during its cloud-based tech infrastructure transition. Data is used for personalized intelligence and analytics to enable a greater understanding of customers’ desires and expectations. DBS is industrializing the use of AI and machine learning to power differentiated customer experiences.

Fundamentally, DBS had to operate as a start-up and embed an appropriate organizational start-up culture — a particular challenge for incumbent banks transitioning into the tech space. Adopting a hybrid multi-cloud infrastructure, DBS aims to reduce infrastructure costs by adapting its architecture to the cloud and reimagining its processes to be customer-centric.

In this context, Singapore’s Smart Nation Initiative “Singpass”, a digital identification framework, could play a key role in enrolment and verification. DBS has become a technology company, enabling flexibility to experiment and implement changes faster, and integrate with customer systems.

For example, DBS and GovTech are teaming up to pilot Singpass face verification technology for faster digital banking sign-ups among seniors aged 62 and above.

During Singapore’s economic post-Covid-19 transition, DBS created the DBS Digital Exchange to manage its integrated digital ecosystem. Self-directed trading is possible via its digibank app. DBS and JPMorgan also co-created “Partior” as a blockchain-based cross-border clearing and settlement provider that harnesses smart contracts to transform the future of payments.

Before experimenting with intelligent banking, DBS built its proprietary AI machinery using an integrated approach. This combines predictive analytics, AI and machine learning, and customer-centric design to convert data into hyper-personalized nudges to help customers make informed decisions.

Because DBS provides “insights” and “nudges” for customers on its digibank app, the technology must be consistent and dependable. Yet despite spending billions on tech, training, contracting reputable vendors and using proven technology, DBS still encountered technical problems in its digitalization journey.

On May 5, 2023, DBS’ online banking and payment services were disrupted for the second time in two months. Previously, on March 29, 2023, DBS lost electrical power, disrupting its digital services for 10 hours. These two disruptions come 16 months after an outage in November 2021 which lasted for two days, causing access problems to the bank’s control servers.

The DBS Digital Exchange is 10% owned by Singapore’s SGX stock exchange. Image: Twitter

For the 2021 outage, the Monetary Authority required DBS to apply a multiplier of 1.5 times to its risk-weighted assets for operational risk, amounting to US$700 million of regulatory capital to ensure sufficient liquidity.

As traditional banks like DBS digitalize and embrace technology, they must have robust business recovery and continuity capacity built into their digital frameworks. Regulatory authorities like the Monetary Authority have driven digital transformation and highlighted the need for banks to continually review their digital banking infrastructure.

But regulators also need to increase monitoring and supervision of banks’ digital processes and transformation models.

Dr Faizal Bin Yahya is Senior Research Fellow in the Governance and Economy Department of the Institute of Policy Studies, National University of Singapore.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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Singapore to host Prince William’s Earthshot Prize ceremony supporting climate solutions

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SINGAPORE: A global environmental prize founded by Britain’s Prince William will hold its third annual awards ceremony in Singapore on Nov 7.

The Earthshot Prize, founded in 2020, is aimed at supporting innovative projects to tackle climate change and protect the planet.

Five winners will each be awarded £1 million (S$1.67 million) to help them scale their environmental solutions. The finalists will be announced later this year.

Announcing the destination of the 2023 awards on Monday (May 15), Prince William said: “The Earthshot Prize is all about showing the world that solutions to some of the biggest environmental challenges we face are out there.

“After two years of discovering impactful ideas and innovations, I am delighted that The Earthshot Prize is travelling to Singapore, where the ground-breaking solutions of our 2023 Finalists will be celebrated.”

The ceremony will feature performances by “world-renowned musicians and artists”, said organisers in a media release.

They added that for the first time, the awards ceremony will be accompanied by a series of events as part of Earthshot Week.

Global leaders, businesses and investors will travel to Singapore to explore opportunities with the winners and finalists. 

“Southeast Asia is one of the regions of the world most affected by climate change, but in the face of significant environmental challenges, it is also a hub for innovators, entrepreneurs, community leaders and problem solvers who are committed to restoring our planet,” organisers added.

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Winners: FinanceAsia Awards 2022-2023 Southeast Asia | awards, financeasia awards, southeast asia, sustainability, impact, esg, flagship awards, annual winners, 27th iteration | FinanceAsia

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Still reeling from the effects of last year’s supply chain woes, energy disruptions and geopolitical tensions, financial markets are now also contending with the impact of consecutive interest rate hikes and uncertainty following recent banking turmoil.

While 2023 may not deliver the capital markets rebound we were all hoping for, it is worth pausing to recognise leading financial institutions that have forged through and made waves in these volatile times.

Marked progress and innovation across deals continues to demonstrate regeneration and resilience. After all, the goal posts have not changed: each of Asia’s markets is bound by net zero commitments; and digital transformation continues to drive regulatory discourse and development around emerging sectors and virtual assets. As a result, sustainability and digitisation continue to be underlying themes shaping a new paradigm for deal-making in the region. 

The FinanceAsia team invited banks, brokers and ratings agencies to showcase their capabilities to support their clients as they navigated these uncertain economic times. Our awards process celebrates those institutions that showed determination to deliver desirable outcomes, through display of commercial and technical acumen.

This year marks the 27th iteration of our FinanceAsia awards and celebrates activity that has taken place within the past year (2022).

To reflect new trends, this year we introduced an award for Biggest ESG Impact (encompassing all three elements of ESG strategy) and updated our D&I award to include equity: Most Progressive DEI Strategy.

Read on for details of the winners for Southeast Asia. Full write-ups explaining the rationale behind winner selection will be published in the summer edition of the FinanceAsia magazine, with subsequent syndication online.

Congratulations to all of our winners!

 

*** SOUTHEAST ASIA ***

CLM (CAMBODIA, LAOS, MYANMAR)
Domestic
Best Bank: Cambodian Public Bank
***

INDONESIA
Domestic
Best Bank: PT Bank Central Asia
Best Broker: PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas
Best DCM House: PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Best ECM House: PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Best ESG Impact: PT Bank Mandiri
Best Investment Bank: PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Best Sustainable Bank: PT Bank Mandiri
Most Innovative Use of Technology: PT Bank Mandiri
Most Progressive DEI: PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia

International
Best Bank: BNP Paribas
Best Investment Bank: BNP Paribas
Best Sustainable Bank: MUFG
***

MALAYSIA
Domestic
Best Bank: Public Bank Berhad
Best DCM House:
Winner: CIMB Investment Bank
Finalist: Maybank Investment Bank
Best ECM House: Maybank Investment Bank
Best ESG Impact: Public Bank Berhad
Best Investment Bank:
Winner: Maybank Investment Bank
Finalist: CIMB Investment Bank
Best Sustainable Bank:
Winner: Public Bank Berhad
Finalist: Maybank Investment Bank
Most Progressive DEI: CIMB Bank

International
Best Bank: Citi
***

PHILIPPINES
Domestic
Best Bank: BDO Unibank
Best DCM House:
Winner: BPI Capital Corporation
Finalist: China Bank Capital
Best ECM House:
Winner: First Metro Investment
Finalist: China Bank Capital
Best ESG Impact: Bank of the Philippines Islands
Best Investment Bank:
Winner: First Metro Investment Corporation
Finalist: SB Capital Investment Corporation
Best Sustainable Bank: Bank of the Philippine Islands

International
Best Bank: HSBC
Most Progressive DEI: Citi
***

SINGAPORE
Domestic
Best Bank: DBS Bank
Best Broker: CGS-CIMB Securities
Best DCM House: United Overseas Bank
Best ESG Impact: DBS Bank
Best Investment Bank: DBS Bank
Best Sustainable Bank: DBS Bank
Most Innovative Use of Technology: DBS Bank

International
Best Bank: Citi
Best Investment Bank: Citi
Best Sustainable Bank: MUFG
Most Progressive DEI: Citi
***

THAILAND
Domestic
Best Broker: InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd.
Best ECM House: Kiatnakin Phatra Securities PCL
Best DCM House: Kasikornbank
Best Investment Bank: Kiatnakin Phatra Securities PCL
Best Sustainable Bank: Bangkok Bank PCL
Most Innovative Use of Technology: InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd

International
Best Bank: HSBC
Best Investment Bank: Citi
Best Sustainable Bank: MUFG
Most Progressive DEI: Citi
***

VIETNAM
Domestic
Best Bank: Techcombank
Best Broker: SSI Securities Corporation
Best Investment Bank:
Winner: Viet Capital Securities Corporation
Finalist: SSI Securities Corporation
Best DCM House: SSI Securities Corporation
Best ECM House:
Winner: Viet Capital Securities JSC
Finalist: SSI Securities Corporation
Best ESG Impact: Saigon-Hanoi Commercial Bank
Most Innovative Use of Technology: TechcomSecurities

International
Best Bank: HSBC
Best ESG Impact: HSBC
Best Investment Bank: HSBC
Best Sustainable Bank: Citi
Most Innovative Use of Technology: HSBC

***

For other winners:

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Thai elections: Early results show resounding win for opposition

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In: South-East Asia

Thai voters cast a strong vote against the military establishment on Sunday, with early results from the general election tracing a major victory for the opposition.

At about 1 a.m., with 82% of the vote counted, Move Forward Party and Pheu Thai had marked a commanding lead over the rest of the field – and most notably the ruling Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation, the new party of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha. 

Though the opposition parties drew even for much of the night, by press time the progressive Move Forward seemed to defy opinion polling to eke ahead as the single-strongest group. The final number of seats awarded to each party is yet to be determined, but the two opposition parties are expected to form the next Thai coalition government.

Analysts had seen the election largely as a referendum on nearly a decade of military-backed rule through Prayuth, a former military general who took power through a 2014 coup that toppled his predecessor, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

The early results of Sunday’s election seem to offer an electoral rebuke of this leadership and a clear mandate for a new one. But an opposition-led government would likely face hurdles to governance as written into the 2017 constitution pushed by the organisers of the last coup or, as many voters worry, at the sharp end of yet another military takeover.

Either way, Sunday exit polls suggested from the outset that Prayuth had struggled to connect with voters critical of his handling of the post-pandemic economy. 

The prime minister had joined the United Thai Nation after leaving Palang Pracharath due to internal party politics. Before midnight, United Thai Nation leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga appeared to concede the election in remarks to the Bangkok Post.

“We will not be unorthodox on the matter,” he said, when asked if the party would make way for a new government. “We have done our best during the time we have had.”

The Thai legislature is bicameral, with a total of 750 seats split between 500 in the House of Representatives and 250 in the Senate. 

Voters in Thailand cast ballots on Sunday to directly fill 400 constituency seats for the lower house, with the remaining 100 filled on a party-list basis in proportion to each group’s vote share.

As per the 2017 constitution, the Royal Thai Military appoints all 250 members of the Senate – providing a heavy counterweight to the elected government that could complicate selection of the next prime minister.

Results as of 1 a.m., with 82% of the vote counted, showed Move Forward winning 115 constituency seats in parliament plus a third of the proportional party-list seats. At that same time, Pheu Thai had won 112 constituency seats plus a quarter of the party-list seats. 

The party that ends up with the most seats will lead the coalition.

Beyond the opposition, at that time United Thai Nation had won an estimated 25 constituency seats plus about 10% of the party-list seats. Palang Pracharath was on track to win 40 constituency seats and just more than 1% of the party-list seats.

Both parties trailed the third-place contestant, Bhumjaithai Party, which is led by Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

Anutin is also the country’s health minister and was a vocal advocate for Thailand’s decriminalisation of cannabis. He cast his ballot Sunday while wearing a shirt printed with bright green marijuana leaves. 

Move Forward presses ahead

The emerging victor Move Forward, led by 42-year-old businessman Pita Limjaroenrat, is the second incarnation of a youthful political movement that started with the predecessor Future Forward Party. 

That earlier rendition was dissolved in 2020 by order of the Thai Constitutional Court after a strong showing in the general election of the year prior. Supporters of Move Forward worry the successor party could meet a similar fate before enacting its reformist agenda. This political wish-list includes revising the country’s strict lese majeste law, which punishes perceived insults to the monarchy, and reeling in the power of the military. 

Move Forward had made strong appeals to younger voters, many of whom had participated in the mass pro-democracy movement of 2020.

As midnight drew near, Pita told reporters that he expected Move Forward to win 160 seats in parliament, beating its goal of 100. By about that time, data from the Thai Election Commission showed the reformist party had won all 33 constituencies in Bangkok.

Though it was still unclear as of time of publication which party would lead the new coalition, Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, offered warm words to the competition after midnight.

“We are ready to talk to Move Forward, but we are waiting for the official result,” she told reporters in Bangkok.

“I’m happy for them,” she added. “We can work together.”

Pheu Thai is an electoral powerhouse that has won every ballot since 2001 but has been largely kept from power by court decisions and military coups. 

Paetongtarn, its latest chief, had previously taken a short absence from the campaign to give birth to a son, a development that won admiration from a large swath of the public.

Family ties are an inevitable part of her political tale as the next generation of the Shinawatra political dynasty. Paetongtarn is the niece of the ousted Yingluck and the daughter of the embattled billionaire and populist former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was himself removed by military coup in 2006 and recently teased a return to Thailand from his long years of self-exile.

With final results still pending, the projected winners will soon need to mobilise themselves to fulfill their campaign promises. This election has seen offerings of some of the biggest stimulus programmes and handouts to date in Thailand – to the tune of about $90 billion in total.

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