Thailand’s prime minister turmoil

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Hello Globe readers,

This week, the world has its eyes on Thailand as the resignation of former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and the challenges around the selection of his successor leaves the public on pins and needles. 

On 13 July, a parliamentary debate resulted in the rejection of opposition Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat as the new prime minister. Although expected, the vote sparked widespread protests across the country. The Thai parliament will gather to cast their next vote for prime minister on 19 July.

While Thai citizens await the final decision, government institutions are facing an increased number of cyber infiltrations as groups of hackers target the region to steal key military information. Some experts believe the attacks, sourced to entities known as either Dark Pink or Ocean Buffalo, originated in Vietnam, but only an international investigation into the crimes will reveal the truth. 

Vietnam has recently been facing another threat. The country’s few remaining wild elephants have been clashing with local farmers over food and land, leading to often-fatal interactions for the endangered giants. With only about 100 remaining across the entire country, they’re on the brink of a population spiral. 

Last but not least, this week the Globe spoke with survivors of Singapore’s failed prison experiment that resulted in a deadly riot six decades ago nearly to the day. The chaos on Pulau Senang happened on the cusp of Singapore’s independence and faded from public memory, but a recent documentary dredged up the alleged abuse and corruption that undermined the project and led to its collapse.

That’s all for today, may you have a wonderful weekend and enjoy the features!

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Guns for hire: a season for mercenaries

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After a band of mercenaries tried to oust the government in Maldives back in 1988, I asked a Maldivian diplomat, using a familiar military catchphrase, about the strength of his country’s “standing army.”

“Standing army?” the diplomat asked with mock surprise, and remarked perhaps half-jokingly, “We don’t even have a sitting army.”

With a population of about 250,000 around that time, Maldives was one of the few countries with no fighter planes, combat helicopters, warships, missiles, or battle tanks – an open invitation for mercenaries and freelance military adventurers.

As a result, the island nation’s fragile defenses attracted mercenaries and bounty hunters who tried to take over the country twice – once in 1979, and a second time in 1988.

Although both attempts failed, the Indian Ocean archipelago refused to drop its defenses. It not only initiated a proposal seeking a UN security umbrella to protect the world’s militarily vulnerable mini-states but also backed the 1989 “International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries.”

In the US, a mercenary is called a “soldier of fortune,” which is also the title of a widely circulated magazine, subtitled the “Journal of Professional Adventurers.”

The adventures – and misadventures – of mercenaries have also been portrayed in several Hollywood movies, including The Dogs of War, Tears of the Sun, The Wild Geese, The Expendables, and Blood Diamond, among others.

Wagner hits the headlines

When the Russian Wagner Group hit the front pages of newspapers worldwide, it was described as a private mercenary group fighting in Ukraine.

The New York Times said on June 30 that the Wagner Group provided security to African presidents, propped up dictators, violently suppressed rebel uprisings, and was accused of torture, murder of civilians, and other abuses.

But the recent failed coup attempt by Wagner threatened, for a moment, the very existence of the group.

A military adviser to an African president dependent on mercenaries implicitly linked the name of the group to the German composer Richard Wagner.

And the official was quoted as saying, “If it is not Wagner any more, they can send us Beethoven or Mozart, it doesn’t matter. We’ll take them.”

A July 14 report on CNN quoted a Kremlin source as saying the Wagner Group, which led a failed insurrection against Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, was never a legal entity and its legal status needs further consideration.

“Such a legal entity as PMC Wagner does not exist and never existed. This is a legal issue that needs to be explored,” Kremlin spokesnan Dmitry Peskov said.

Peskov refused to disclose any further details on the meeting between Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin that reportedly took place several days after the aborted rebellion in June.

Besides Ukraine, mercenaries have been fighting in Central Africa, Mali, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Libya. In Syria, there was a paramilitary group called the Slavonic Corps providing security to President Bashar al-Assad battling a civil war – followed later by the Wagner Group.

And in Mali, there were more than 1,500 mercenaries fighting armed groups threatening to overthrow the government.

US frowns on mercenaries – sometimes

Ironically, the US, which used the Blackwater Security Consulting Group during the American occupation of Iraq, has imposed sanctions on several African nations deploying mercenaries.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said early this month that the United States was imposing sanctions on several entities in the Central African Republic for their connection to what he called the transnational criminal organization known as the Wagner Group and “for their involvement in activities that undermine democratic processes and institutions in the CAR through illicit trade in the country’s natural resources.”

“We are also designating one Russian national who has served as a Wagner executive in Mali,” Blinken said. “Wagner has used its operations in Mali both to obtain revenue for the group and its owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as well as to procure weapons and equipment to further its involvement in hostilities in Ukraine.”

The United States has also issued a new business risk advisory focused on the gold industry across sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, the advisory highlights “how illicit actors such as Wagner exploit this resource to gain revenue and sow conflict, corruption, and other harms throughout the region.”

Death and destruction have followed in Wagner’s wake everywhere it has operated, and the United States will continue to take actions to hold it accountable, Blinken said.

Stephen Zunes, professor of politics and international studies at the University of San Francisco, told Inter Press Service (IPS) it is certainly good that the United States is finally taking leadership in opposing the use of mercenaries.

The Iraq war, which then-senator Joe Biden strongly supported, relied heavily on the use of mercenaries from the Blackwater group. Similarly, during the Cold War, the US Central Intelligence Agency used mercenaries to support its military objectives in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.

“Whether such actions targeting the Wagner Group is indicative of an actual shift in US policy or simply a means of punishing a pro-Russian organization remains to be seen,” Zunes said.

Simon Adams, president and chief executive of the Center for Victims of Torture, told IPS that throughout history, big powers have often used mercenaries. From trying to hold back anti-colonial struggles to the horrors of the Cold War in Latin America or Africa, there is nothing new in that.

“But I think the big change is that the international community has become more intolerant of these guns-for-hire and privatized armies who believe that they can operate outside of international humanitarian law, and are often rampant abusers of human rights,” he said.

And it is much harder these days for their state sponsors to deny responsibility for their actions, he added.

The Wagner Group has been implicated in numerous atrocities in Ukraine, the CAR, and a number of other places, he said.

“They deserve all the opprobrium that has been heaped upon them. The challenge now is not just to sanction them, and to try to hold the main war criminals accountable under international law.”

The bigger challenge is to ensure that no other big state or major power engages in these same nefarious practices the next time it suits their own partisan interests to do so, Adams said.

Meanwhile, according to an article in the National Defense University Press, private force has become big business, and global in scope. No one truly knows how many billions of dollars slosh around this illicit market.

“All we know is that business is booming. Recent years have seen major mercenary activity in Yemen, Nigeria, Ukraine, Syria and Iraq. Many of these for-profit warriors outclass local militaries, and a few can even stand up to America’s most elite forces, as the battle in Syria shows.”

The Middle East is awash in mercenaries. Kurdistan is a haven for soldiers of fortune looking for work with the Kurdish militia, oil companies defending their oilfields, or those who want terrorists dead, according to the article.

“Some are just adventure seekers, while others are American veterans who found civilian life meaningless. The capital of Kurdistan, Irbil, has become an unofficial marketplace of mercenary services, reminiscent of the Tatooine bar in the movie Star Wars – full of smugglers and guns for hire.”

This article was provided by the Inter Press Service / Globetrotter News Service.

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Environmental sustainability is a priority

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Hello Globe readers,

Happy Friday, everyone. Don’t miss the last few hours of our mid-year sale, where you can get an annual membership for only half the price and gain access to all of our stories. A huge thank you from us all in advance. 

This week, our features covered major trends in energy transition projects in Southeast Asia. In his first piece for the Globe, Coby Hobbs wrote about the challenges faced by the $30-billion Just Energy Transition Project (JETP) in supporting renewable energy infrastructure development in Vietnam and Indonesia.

In the meantime, the E.U.’s Regulation on deforestation-free products, which entered into force on 29 June, forbids the import of goods into Europe that originated from land cleared since 31 December, 2020. Malaysia and Indonesia, two of the E.U.’s major trade partners, sent a mission to Brussels arguing the legislation discriminated against their palm-oil-dependent economies and would harm their agricultural sectors.

As deserted lands cause environmental concerns, deserted streets could be equally dangerous for their human population. Urbanist Jane Jacobs popularised the concept of the lively street as an instrument of public safety in her book The Death and Life of Great American Cities. She stressed the idea that a lively street is one that has people who watch over it.

Last but not least, two Indonesian human rights advocates are now fighting defamation charges over a podcast aired almost two years ago. The incriminating episode was about a report claiming military involvement in West Papua was designed to protect mining interests in the area and the alleged conflict of interest of a government official as a shareholder of a mining company in Papua. 

That’s all for today, may you have a wonderful weekend and enjoy the features!

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Exabytes encourages businesses to leverage cloud technology for IR4.0 sustainability

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Aims to address sustainability, efficiency in digital era, focusing on digital transformation
Attendees got practical solutions for optimising supply chains & embracing ESG principles

Southeast Asia’s all-in-one cloud, digital, and e-commerce solutions provider, Exabytes Group, recently organised the Cloud-Powered Industry 4.0 Revolution conference with Amazon Web Service (AWS). The conference aimed to create awareness for businesses to…Continue Reading

Washington myopia undercuts Indo-Pacific partners

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Over the last few weeks, Washington has been abuzz with everything India. On June 22, President Joe Biden, cabinet secretaries and the US Congress gave a rousing reception to visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

For his part, the prime minister cheered Republican and Democratic congressmen with his quip that he could “help them reach bipartisan consensus,” referring to the across-the-aisle support India enjoys in Washington.

It was certainly an apt decision to honor the Indian leader, given that the US-India partnership has significantly expanded under Biden. Both the White House and several members of the Biden administration, from National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell, have characterized it as the “most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century.”

However, over the last few months, some of the Biden administration’s regional policies in the Indo-Pacific have done more harm than good to its partners, particularly hurting India and its geopolitical leverage in the Indo-Pacific region. 

The Biden administration’s foreign policy cut a significant departure from its predecessors until last month, when it returned to Washington’s old ways: myopic democratic interventions, benevolent outreach to adversarial nations and partisan bickering.

Over the last few weeks, Washington’s primary Indo-Pacific partners, India and Japan, have borne the brunt of these missteps.

Biden, in a last-minute change of plans, canceled his scheduled trip to Papua New Guinea and Australia to address the debt ceiling crisis in Washington, with Republicans stalling the Democrats from raising the debt ceiling levels.

While Secretary of State Antony Blinken went ahead with his own trip to Papua New Guinea and signed a crucial defense agreement with the Pacific Island nation, Biden’s cancelation of that leg of the tour was not the best messaging to a region increasingly falling under China’s orbit.

Prior to Biden’s cancellation, the Indian government had decided to accommodate his visit and cut short Indian official visits as a courtesy to the incoming American presidential delegation. Modi went ahead with his travel itinerary as scheduled – and turned it into an opportunity to showcase India’s position on the global stage.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Papua New Guinea on May 21 and a rare moment was seen at the Port Moresby airport when PNG Prime Minister James Marape, in a traditional welcoming gesture, touched Modi’s feet and sought his blessings. Photo: NDTV

New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape hailed Modi as the leader of the Global South. Taking an implicit jab at the United States and China, the island nation leader told Modi, “We are victims of global power play, and you are the leader of Global South. We will rally behind your leadership at global forums.”

While this was a minor setback for a coordinated approach toward Chinese expansionism in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean challenge is a more geopolitically complex Gordian knot.

In mid-May, Blinken threatened Bangladesh with sanctions if the Indian Ocean state did not host free and fair elections in the 2024 poll. Suppose the United States were to follow through with its threat.

In that case, India and Japan would be in a quandary as they have consistently positioned Bangladesh as a gateway connecting the Indian subcontinent to Southeast Asia for supply chain and infrastructure connectivity initiatives.

Geographically, Bangladesh is nestled between India’s state of Bengal to the west and India’s northeastern provinces to the east, bordering a thin strip of land the connects the rest of India to the northeast (also known as the “chicken’s neck”).

Thus the densely populated country’s interaction with the rest of the world is directed through India or the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean.

Both New Delhi and Tokyo have invested in infrastructure in the region and have long-term plans to invest in Dhaka’s growth. Recently, Japan and India agreed to jointly develop the Matabari deep-sea port in Bangladesh to serve as a “strategic anchor” in the Indian Ocean.

Though often underreported, Japanese investment plays a vital role in South Asian development. Japan is also undeniably India’s Northeast region’s major infrastructure and development partner.

Development assistance projects supported by Japan in India’s Northeast amount to more than 231 billion yen ($1.7 billion). Graphic: Japanese government

Through the Bay of Bengal-Northeast India Industrial Value Chain, the Japanese government envisions increased connectivity between India’s landlocked northeast and Southeast Asia, creating a single economic zone and an alternative trade connectivity project to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida, articulating his government’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy in New Delhi in early March this year, called for increased integration of India’s Northeast with Bangladesh to transform the region into a single economic zone.

Moreover, Japan is attempting to capture the businesses moving out of the pricier markets of Southeast Asia, using the Bay of Bengal region. Japan’s regional strategy has neatly complemented the Modi government’s policies.

Modi transformed the older “Look East” policy into an “Act East” policy of increasing strategic and economic engagement with Southeast Asia as a countervailing force to China’s involvement in the region. 

Tokyo has slowly and steadily supported this transformation. A case in point is Tokyo and New Delhi’s hosting of the India-Japan Act East forum to discuss cooperation on a range of projects that will increase connectivity in India’s Northeast to Southeast Asia.

India’s Northeast has a history of civil unrest and strife, making it a challenging region for development. Furthermore, its landlocked topography and poor infrastructure limited its connectivity to both its neighboring countries and the rest of India. Only a party interested in the long game or having a vision for the region could invest in that part of the world, and in this case it is Japan.

Interestingly, as an extension, both Japan and India are engaging the immediate eastern neighbor to Bangladesh and India, Myanmar. Sanctioned by the United States, Myanmar has limited partners on the world stage. Nonetheless, Japan and India have continued engagement with the military junta to prevent the nation from falling entirely under China’s influence.

There, once again, Indo-Japanese interests are affected by America’s sanctions. In May, India-Myanmar inaugurated the Sittwe port in the Rakhine state of Myanmar. India supported this port to enhance sea lane connectivity between India’s eastern states and Myanmar.

However, since the sanctions, Indian companies have either had to depart Myanmar altogether or face global scrutiny for working with the military junta-led government.

India-financed Sittwe Port in Myanmar. Photo: PTI

As satellite images released earlier this year indicated, increased activity on the Great Coco Islands of Myanmar had the markings of Chinese military involvement. With the Great Cocos less than thirty miles north of India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, any potential militarization of the Coco Islands by the Chinese could pose a significant threat to India’s security in the Indian Ocean.

In this geopolitical equation, India cannot afford to disengage from Myanmar. And yet, America’s economic statecraft is undercutting India’s vital regional partnerships.

Henry Kissinger, who celebrated his 100th birthday in May, summed up this dynamic well: “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” It is undoubtedly proving so for Japan and India, but more so for New Delhi in the Indian Ocean. 

Against the backdrop of these measures come the Biden administration’s attempts at thawing relations with China. While Biden departs from his predecessors as the only recent president not to ask for Kissinger’s advice, he is beginning to walk in the footsteps of the grand strategist by making attempts to mend ties with China.

Katherine Tai. Photo: Wikipedia

From the dialogue in Vienna to Blinken rescheduling his trip to Beijing for last month to the official abandonment of economic “decoupling” for the less confrontational “de-risking,” Washington’s approach to China shows signs of softening.

While members of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) agreed on moving ahead with a supply chain agreement in Detroit, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai met with her Chinese counterpart to discuss trade and economic ties in the same week on the sidelines of the APEC meeting.

Washington’s blow-hot, blow-cold approach does not reassure allies and partners – particularly partners that it courts for strategic competition with China – of the consistency of its priorities and policies.

Furthermore, Washington’s skewed sanction policies, opposing democratic backsliding in a few states at the same time it calls for engagement with authoritarian China, raise questions about the motives behind such policies.

While the United States has sanctioned Chinese officials allegedly involved in human rights abuses in Xinjiang, it continues to do massive business with Beijing. This selective condemnation only further isolates partners and strengthens Chinese engagement with the sanctioned nations.

This misbegotten strategy, according to Rob York, director for regional affairs at Honolulu’s Pacific Forum, is “a holdover from America’s unipolar moment that we need to outgrow. America’s moral authority, and the benefits of aligning with Washington, are no longer assumed but must be competed for, and sanctions must be employed far more judiciously than they have been.”

This type of awakening to multipolar realities of the world order should inform Washington of the pitfalls and shortsightedness of its foreign policies. America’s sanctions and other tools of economic statecraft should not be used for democratic interventions but to deter its enemies. If not, the United States will have few allies in its strategic competition with China.

Akhil Ramesh ([email protected]) is a senior fellow at the Pacific Forum and author of the US-India chapter for Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal of Bilateral Relations in the Indo-Pacific.

The article in this version was first published by Pacific Forum. An earlier version appeared in The National Interest. Asia Times is republishing with kind permission.

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Ayala’s path to an ESG driven business | FinanceAsia

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With several ESG-backed initiatives in recent years, the Philippines-based conglomerate Ayala has solidified its commitment to sustainability. Operating across verticals including energy, finance, infrastructure, and real estate, Ayala has committed to net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. The conglomerate’s energy wing ACEN recently created the world’s first energy transition mechanism (ETM) in November 2022, backed by BPI and RCBC.

On the social front, Ayala’s GCash app and BPI’s BanKo have  played pivotal roles in financial inclusion for unbanked Filipinos and small to medium size enterprises. BPI and Globe are currently reviewing their framework to consciously focus on these areas.

When it comes to governance, Ayala’s boards are working towards an appropriate level of diversity and independence. This involves maintaining high standards when it comes to transparency and disclosure.

The 190-year-old company’s social and sustainability initiatives have a long history. Albert de Larrazabal, CFO at Ayala Corporation said, “We have always aligned ourselves to national interest and had very high standards of governance and stewardship. As we must be mindful of the ecosystems we operate under, ESG in various forms has always been part of our value proposition.”

Ayala’s approach to ESG

Today, ESG-based financing is a priority for Ayala. Apart from ACEN’s implementation of the world’s first ETM, Ayala has issued a social bond with the IFC in support of its cancer hospital. Larrazabal said, “We are looking to do KPI-linked social and ESG financing, which incorporates targets into the commercial terms and conditions of the loan.”

Even during the M&A process, the conglomerate is mindful of integrating new acquisitions into its ESG framework. Ayala has also taken steps to ensure that ESG is a priority that is ingrained at the highest levels of the organisation, leveraging its membership with the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). The conglomerate’s board has received training which ensures they can play an active role in tracking and monitoring developments in the ESG space.

Corporates making public commitments to sustainability draw a lot of attention, not all of it positive. Asked how Ayala approaches concerns about greenwashing, Larrazabal said, “Sometimes it happens inadvertently because of incorrect measurements. That’s why we brought in South Pole. We have taken steps to ensure we are on the right track by committing to independent verification, to give people a degree of reassurance.”

Building a model for the APAC region

While the need for sustainable leaders is strongly felt across APAC, many countries in the region have a minimal contribution to emissions — the Philippines emits half the global average on a per capita basis. Larrazabal said, “Between 80% to 88% of our emissions — depending on individual businesses — are scope 3.” These emissions are defined as the result of activities from assets not owned or controlled by a reporting organisation, but which are a part of its value chain. Larrazabal said, “Our scope 3 is somebody else’s scope 1 and scope 2. We need an environment that enables, incentivises, and if that fails, penalises those who disregard scope 1 and 2.”

Many emerging markets grapple with issues similar to those facing the Philippines — adopting renewable energy, while meeting the demands of a growing population and economy. As a result, ETM-like arrangements may be embraced to a greater extent. Asked for his advice on managing such a transaction, Eric Francia, president and CEO at ACEN said, “It is important for investors to reconsider their position on coal, so long as the principles are well understood. One may be investing in a coal plant, but for a good purpose, which is enabling its early retirement.”

Offering a financial perspective on the ETM, TG Limcaoco, president and CEO Bank of Philippine Islands added, “We provided lending and brought in other institutions. We took reduced rates of returns for equity and debt exposure, which allowed us to shorten the life of the plant by 10 to 15 years. It is a big win for everyone involved.”

For more on Ayala’s adoption of ESG and a deeper insight into the world’s first ever ETM, please watch the accompanying video.

 

 

¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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Commentary: Despite the excitement, India’s South China Sea policy remains unchanged

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NEW DELHI: An India-Philippines joint statement last month has caused a stir. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s Foreign Minister, and his Filipino counterpart, Enrique Manalo, issued a joint statement on Jun 29 calling for China to abide by the 2016 arbitral award on the South China Sea. 

It sparked a flurry of commentary in the media speculating a shift away from India’s long-standing neutrality on competing territorial claims in Southeast Asia. 

While India has long supported norms enshrined in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), some experts pointed out, this was the first time that New Delhi had explicitly called on China to heed the arbitral tribunal’s 2016 ruling.

The development – although significant – ought to be viewed in perspective. A joint statement by countries seeking improved ties follows diplomatic practice. Not infrequently, one side pushes the other to take positions the latter may not be entirely comfortable with but is potentially open to considering as the matter is deemed a core interest by its partner. This is often the case with Southeast Asian states and their partners in Asia and Europe.

When the G7, the Quad, and the European Union expressed their support for the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea last month, for instance, some member states were wary of the prospect of riling China. 

Yet, they said what had to be, knowing full well that China would object. It did. Beijing slammed the move, terming it a blatant interference in its internal affairs.

OTHER FACTORS AT PLAY

It’s not as if geopolitics is the sole factor influencing the implementation of rules and norms in the South China Sea.

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SoftServe partners with NQCH and IMDA for Singapore’s inaugural Quantum Bootcamp 2023

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The programme ran for two months
Three winners were picked based on overall project, technical contribution, and value

SoftServe, an IT consulting company offering software development and digital services, in partnership with the National Quantum Computing Hub (NQCH) and the Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA), announced the launch of Singapore’s first Quantum Bootcamp,…Continue Reading

Sales of new private homes fell in June amid lack of major launches, say analysts

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SINGAPORE: Sales of new private homes in Singapore fell in June, the first dip after five straight months of increases in 2023.

Excluding executive condominiums, developers sold 278 units in June, a 73.2 per cent drop from the 1,039 units sold in May, according to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Monday (Jul 17).

On a year-on-year basis, private home sales fell by 43 per cent from the 488 units sold in June 2022.

The number of units launched for sale also saw a significant decline, with the 31 units launched in June 98.1 per cent lower than the 1,595 units in May, and 92.2 per cent lower than the 397 units in June 2022.

Analysts said the decrease in private home sales was due to a lack of major project launches in June, with the 17-unit Lavender Residence being the only project launched that month.

“The substantial decline in sales volume can be attributed to a high base effect, where two major project launches (The Reserve Residences and The Continuum) drove May 2023 sales to a 12-month high,” said Lam Chern Woon, Edmund Tie’s head of research and consulting.

ERA Realty Network’s key executive officer Eugene Lim cited the June school holidays, with many Singaporeans away on vacation, for developers to avoid launching any new projects.

CBRE’s Southeast Asia head of research Tricia Song said June’s sales figure, which is the lowest since the 170 units sold in December 2022, reflect “cautious buying sentiment amidst weak economic conditions”.

She noted that the 3,463 new private homes sold in the first half of 2023 is 18 per cent lower compared to the 4,222 units sold in the first half of 2022.

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Italy in an unspoken Indo-Pacific pivot

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While Italy’s traditional geostrategic area of reference is the “enlarged Mediterranean“, the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific from an economic and geopolitical standpoint has piqued Rome’s interest. Italy does not yet possess an articulated Indo-Pacific strategy.

But a document released by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in January 2022 underscores how Rome’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific theater is already longstanding. Present and future initiatives are meant to be multilateral, inclusive and substantially in line with the European Union’s strategic priorities.

A key interest of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government is signaling the importance of upholding the rules-based order in the region. Rome’s strategic outreach in the Indo-Pacific is primarily addressed towards substantial regional players.

Meloni’s visit to India in March 2023 was instrumental in relaunching defense talks, and diplomatic efforts with Japan have elevated Japan-Italy relations to the level of a “strategic partnership” since January 2023.

While often under the media’s radar, Italian foreign policy has also already designated Southeast Asia as a significant zone of interest, in terms of both the concerns of individual states and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

A top priority has been the expansion of trade and economic interconnections. In line with this, since 2017, the annual High-Level Dialogue on ASEAN-Italy Economic Relations has grouped together political and business leaders to discuss possible avenues to increase the volume of exchanges in what is framed as a “strategic market” for Italian enterprises.

In parallel, Italy has been particularly keen to gear up its security role, especially in the maritime domain.

Between May and June 2023, the Morosini carried out different activities in Southeast Asia, paying visits to ports like Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok, participating in defense exhibitions in Malaysia and Singapore and notably taking part for the first time in the Indonesia-led multinational search and rescue “Komodo-23” exercise.

Indonesian Defense Minister and his Italian counterpart Guido Crosetto are keen to cooperate. Photo: Italian Defense Ministry

Defense relations with Jakarta are especially on the rise. The Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto visited the country in December 2022 to boost defense and industrial cooperation.

The visit can also be read through the lens of the 2021 deal between Italian shipbuilding company Fincantieri and the Indonesian Navy for the acquisition of eight frigates, which represents an important milestone in the ongoing modernization of the Indonesian armed forces.

Another key regional partner is Vietnam. In 2013, Rome and Hanoi decided to upgrade their relationship to the level of a strategic partnership. Under this framework, the two nations have been conducting a dialogue on defense-related issues.

Italy has also been a frontrunner in forging ties with different regional organizations in the Indo-Pacific, such as the Pacific Islands Forum, the Indian Ocean Rim Association and ASEAN. The attention of Italian business and diplomatic communities towards ASEAN has manifested through the intensification of institutional meetings involving the two sides.

In September 2020, ASEAN Foreign Ministers decided to confer to Italy the status of Development Partner, in a move that further deepened and institutionalized cooperation in sectors such as cybersecurity, maritime development and anti-piracy.

Southeast Asia represents one of the focus sub-regions in the context of Italy’s nascent ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. But there are important open-ended issues to reflect upon.

One relates to how long term this activism will be. While Meloni’s Italian government has put the Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asia on its geopolitical map, in the medium to long term there is the risk that, with the ongoing war in Ukraine, Italy may eventually reshift its attention and resources closer to Italy’s core strategic perimeter.

There is also the question of Italy’s relationship with China. The Italian government has yet to make a final decision about the renewal of a Belt and Road Initiative-related memorandum signed in 2019.

While some underline that Italy has gradually distanced itself from China and will likely decide not to extend the agreement, Meloni has highlighted that Rome could potentially stay on good terms with China even outside the Belt and Road Initiative framework.

Meloni’s ‘pivot to Asia’ may not last under different leadership. Image: Twitter

Yet, recent declarations by the Chinese ambassador to Italy hint that an abandonment of the memorandum would inevitably have an impact on the relationship.

This begs the question of how Italy will position itself if China increases its assertiveness in the South China Sea. How concretely Italy would respond to a contingency in the area is not easy to predict.

The articulation of an official Indo-Pacific strategy is then a fundamental step forward for Italy in order to answer strategic questions, keep building on a quite successful record and clearly delineate its priorities and goals for future engagement with Southeast Asia.

Fabio Figiaconi is PhD candidate in the Brussels School of Governance, Vrije Universiteit Brussel.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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