China fueling Pakistan-India stealth fighter race

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Pakistan is poised to take delivery of China’s Shenyang FC-31 Gyrfalcon fifth-generation fighter jets, a potentially pivotal moment in South Asia’s bristling arms race pitting India and Pakistan with China in the middle.

This month, Defense News quoted Pakistan Air Force (PAF) chief Zaheer Baber Sidhu saying that the Chinese-made fighters, also known as F-60s or J-21 Snowy Owls, are expected to enter service shortly, without indicating an exact timeframe.

Sidhu was speaking at an induction ceremony for new military equipment that included Chinese-made K-10C Firebird fighters, the Defense News report said. The PAF chief did not indicate how many FC-31s Pakistan would acquire.

China’s FC-31/J-35 lower-cost fifth-generation fighter program seeks to compete with the US-made F-35 and fourth-generation-plus European fighters in international markets.

But unanswered questions about the FC-31’s level of stealth achievable in practice, the sensors and sensor fusion in the aircraft when operational and the time taken for delivery will all determine how effective Pakistan’s acquisition will be in counterbalancing India’s evolving capabilities, the Defense News report said.  

The report also suggested that Pakistan’s JF-17, J-10 and F-16s are adequate for air superiority operations vis-à-vis India, raising questions about the need to procure FC-31s at a time Pakistan is particularly cash-strapped with the economy in a shambles.

Pakistan is a notable purchaser of Chinese fighter jets, one of a small group of countries along with Bangladesh, Myanmar, North Korea and a few African countries that have opted to procure Chinese military aircraft.

In March 2022, The Warzone reported that Pakistan had received its first Chinese-made J-10 multirole fighter jets, an acquisition that aims to enhance the PAF’s capabilities following the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) airstrike on an alleged terrorist training camp in Balakot, Pakistan, in February 2019.

The Warzone report said the PAF’s J-10 acquisition was also a response to India’s procurement of France’s Dassault Rafale multirole fighters. The J-10, equipped with advanced active-radar-guided PL-15 air-to-air missiles and active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, will fill at least some of the strategic gap with India.

Previously, Pakistan and China co-developed the JF-17 light fighter, a strategic tie-up that could eventually lift China’s fortunes in global fighter jet markets.

A China-made JF-17 Pakistani fighter. Image: Facebook

In a November 2022 article for Business Insider, Benjamin Brimelow notes that the JF-17, which first flew in 2003, is in service with only Pakistan, Myanmar and Nigeria with 145 airframes as of October 2021.

Brimelow notes that the number will increase to 185 airframes by the decade’s end, making the JF-17 the most used Chinese fighter jet worldwide.

He writes that while early JF-17s were made exclusively in China, Pakistan now hosts most of the production, with 58% of the aircraft made in Pakistan and 42% in China.

Brimelow mentions that the JF-17’s US$15 to $25 million price tag makes it cheaper than any fourth-generation fighter on the market, making it an attractive option for cash-strapped air forces in the developing world that cannot afford Western aircraft.

However, Brimelow notes that the JF-17 is not designed to compete head-on with fifth-generation fighters such as the US-made F-22 and F-35 but rather is better equipped for low-intensity conflicts such as insurgencies or basic air defense against similarly equipped adversaries.

China’s fighter jet sales to Pakistan are a bright spot in its otherwise dismal performance on world markets.

Asia Times noted in January 2022 that China’s scant fighter jet sales to date owe to Beijing’s hesitance to enter cost-sharing agreements, lack of major strategic partners and the reluctance of potential partners to enter strategic tie-ups with China via fighter jet purchases.

However, China may now be consolidating Pakistan into its military logistics supply chain through sales of sophisticated weapons.

Following the US’ example, China could use Pakistan as a model for marketing its weapons on the premise that buyers join a Chinese-dominated logistics train for technical support, better pricing and access to even more advanced weapons.

Pakistan’s long-running conflict with India has made it increasingly dependent on China for relatively cheap advanced weapons, a situation that some suggest could subjugate its foreign and defense policies to Chinese interests.

As such, Pakistan is diversifying its fighter jet sources. In February 2022, Asia Times reported that Pakistan and Turkey are collaborating to develop a fifth-generation stealth fighter to replace its aging US-made F-16 fleets.

The Turkish Fighter Experimental (TF-X) project is a twin-engine multi-role aircraft with air-to-air capabilities and air-to-surface roles. In November 2022, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) released video footage of the TF-X in an early stage of construction. It’s unclear how the FC-31 acquisition will impact the collaboration, if at all.

A full-size TF-X mockup. Photo: TRT World

Pakistan’s China-powered air force modernization is ringing alarms in India, driving New Delhi to step up its indigenous fighter program.   

In an Eurasian Times article this month, Anil Chopra says that India’s Light Combat Aircraft Mark 1A (LCA Mk1A) is on course for induction this year while the companion LCA Mk2 will make its first flight around 2025.

Meanwhile, India’s first indigenously-made fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), is scheduled for induction around 2028-29. Chopra notes that the AMCA has two variants, the partial stealth AMCA Mk1 and stealth AMCA Mk2, with the former set to fly by 2028-29 and the latter by 2032.

Chopra suggests that India may acquire around two squadrons of F-35s as an interim measure, join the Russian Su-57 or Su-75 programs, or join Japanese or European fifth-generation programs. He asserts India’s best option is to accelerate the AMCA program and acquire around 36 F-35 units.

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Bangladesh elections: My husband died in jail weeks before vote

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Anonymous shot of a woman
Samira Hussain, by
Dhaka, a BBC South Asia journalist

family, lady, and lady. She requested that we refrain from using her brand.

She wants to share a tale, but she’s hesitant to do so in front of others. We travel along railroad tracks in search of a peaceful area where we can have private conversations.

We head to an abandoned creating after leaving a crammed market. We are positioned on a program three planes above the city. In the distance, there is a call to prayer. She describes her father to me.

He was a well-known employee of Bangladesh Nationalist Party ( BNP ), the nation’s primary political opposition. He was a big-hearted man who gladly indulged his wife and children. He loved to sing, especially romantic songs. He was at a local drink shop when authorities detained him late last month. Only 26 weeks afterwards, his boy received a call. His parents had passed away in custody.

My brother had just seen his father three days prior, and he was in good health, she said. When my son inquired about his death, they replied,” We do n’t know.” Simply taking him to the graveyard.

The woman claimed that her father had marks all over his brain, hands, and mouth when she first saw him. She was informed by officials that he passed away naturally. She thinks he was tortured, though.

My daughter ca n’t hear her father’s voice, and my son can no longer call his father. The like a father does provide cannot be replaced by me. Who will appreciate the father? I then want my father to receive justice.

People's hands holding a cloth with an image of Hasina Sheikh on it

According to human rights organizations, under the leadership of Prime Minister Hasina Sheikh, there has been an increase in politically motivated prosecutions, extrajudicial murders of people, and other violations of their rights.

The “violent autocratic crackdown” by Bangladeshi authorities, according to a recent report by Human Rights Watch ( HRW), was unmistakably an effort to crush the opposition before the elections. According to Meenakshi Ganguly, Deputy Director of Human Rights Watch, Asia Division,” This all seems like there is no room for opposition or criticism that is so essential to a functioning democracy.”

The BNP declared it would abstain from voting on Sunday in light of the assault on opposition. Prime Minister Hasina Sheikh and her Awami League group are almost certain to win a fifth straight term in office because there is no genuine opposition running against her.

The government asserts that it is committed to holding completely, fair, and interactive elections on Sunday and refutes claims that critics have been silenced. Ainsul Haq, the Minister for Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affairs, said,” Let me make one thing clear: we are not gagging anyone.” ” Everyone has the right to speak up, and we would be happy to have anyone do so.”

BNP protesters find it difficult to buy. More than 10,000 of their backers and group officials are incarcerated, according to HRW.

Nasrul Islam

Nasrul Islam, a mature BNP head, said,” Yes, you may speak freely, but no one will be held accountable for the results.” He claimed that those who spoke openly were detained, subjected to beatings and torture, and some of them even died in prison. Yet he takes precautions, refraining from spending the night in his home because” that’s when officials come and arrest people.”

The married lady claims that she is concerned for the safety of her family and herself due to her late husband’s political activities.

There are many Awami League followers in the area, so we are afraid. My brother and I will be harassed, she said.

She also thinks her father did the right thing for his land despite her fear. She claims there is an excessive use of force and does not believe in the legality of these primaries.

” He passed away and left us. For this reason, I wo n’t cast a ballot.

Andrew Clarance provided further reporting

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Bangladesh election: ‘What is the point?’ ask disillusioned voters

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Framland in Bangladesh's northern Rajshahi district
by Akbar Hossain and Kelly Ng
in Dhaka and Singapore

Noor Bashar only earns 500 Bangladeshi taka ($ 4.50,$ 3.55 ) per day, or half of what he requires to support his nine-person family.

That amount might decrease even more as Bangladesh’s prices rate rises.

The 43-year-old day laborer who lives in Cox’s Bazaar, 400 km ( 250 miles ) south of the capital Dhaka, says,” People are really suffering.”

” I cannot get spices if I buy bass.” If I purchase spices, I am unable to purchase corn.

A cost-of-living issue is plaguing Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million people. The once-promising development curve of the nation has dipped, and greater difficulties now loom in the low-lying delta that is susceptible to climate change.

Disgruntled citizens, however, have no faith that Sunday’s vote, which they claim is a foregone conclusion, will make their lives better.

My family’s needs are my top priority. Politics are not something I care about because it wo n’t support my family. I’m constantly considering how I may pay back the money I took out from people, said Mr. Bashar.

Noor Bashar in Cox's Bazar

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party ( BNP ), the main opposition, has boycotted this election, and the ruling Awami League, led by Hasina,Sheikh, appears poised to tighten its authoritarian hold on it.

Tens of thousands of rival officials and supporters were detained by Ms. Hasina’s state, which rights organizations have criticized as an attempt to paralyze the opposition before the election.

Many voters believe that the Awami League has already won because there is n’t a strong opposition candidate. Some worry that Ms. Hasina’s third direct term will make the economic situation worse and increase their desperation.

” The elections do n’t interest me in the least. Why if I give a damn? Gias Uddin, a security guard in the port town of Chittagong, said that the goal, whatever it may be, will never alter my fate.

The 57-year-old claims that his family’s finances are so small that they can only manage two meals per day. Fish and meat are no longer purchased by him because they are too costly, and he frequently gathers other people’s crumbs to prepare meals for his nine kids.

Gias Uddin in Chittagong

The home gets by on donations and friend money.

” I have so far borrowed 200, 000 baht. How I may pay back the money is a mystery to me. Simply God knows, according to Mr. Uddin.

” This is a really challenging situation. I occasionally feel like I may pass away.

Clothes to treasures, then back to clothes?

According to some experts, Bangladesh’s descent into monarchy was one of the greatest threats to the country, which was hailed as an “economic wonder” just a few years ago.

According to scholar Debapriya Bhattacharya of the Centre for Policy Dialogue think tank in Dhaka, the next government may face a problem in regaining trust in the economy.

However, it would be very challenging because the state lacks the political clout to carry out the stability-related plans.

Bangladesh had experienced rapid economic growth in recent years.

Despite its difficult working conditions, its garment industry has helped millions of people escape poverty and now makes up about 80 % of the nation’s exports, making it the second-largest garment producer in the world after China.

But after a global economic slowdown in the middle of 2022, the market went into turmoil. Due to an energy crises and high prices, which led to a balance of payments crisis, people started to take to the streets as the foreign reserves were depleted. In November, prices was around 9.5 %, though some think the number is understated.

The International Monetary Fund approved a$ 4.7 billion borrowing in 2023 to strengthen Bangladesh’s weak economy after once predicting that its gross domestic product could exceed that of developed markets like Singapore and Hong Kong.

Shop in Rangpur City

However, researchers have cautioned that Bangladesh’s issues cannot be solved but quickly. Although outside factors played a role, some believe that politicians did not address them or carry out necessary changes.

Corruption is another scourge that has gone unchallenged. Bangladesh was ranked as the 12th most dishonest nation in the world by Transparency International.

” The ruling party has no reason to crack down on fraud severely.” And following this election, people and organizations connected to them will continue to have influence, according to Dr. Bhattacharya.

According to Ali Riaz, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, the folks at bottom of the social ladder did continue to bear the burden of its troubled economy as the national debt grows heavier.

” In any one-party state, there are no checks and balances.” According to Prof. Riaz, no one holds the government accountable for its financial decisions.

There have been claims of extensive vote-rigging in the past, which the Awami League refuted.

Additionally, there is worry that Bangladesh’s democracy and human rights situation may result in economic sanctions from important buying lovers like the US and the EU. Washington started enforcing immigration restrictions on Bangladeshi authorities past September after concluding that they were responsible for undermining the nation’s democratic election process.

the worst effects of climate change

Another significant and urgent issue is weather change. Bangladesh is located less than 5 meters above sea level in about two-thirds of the country. A 30 to 45 inches rise in sea level could force more than 35 million people—roughly 25 % of the nation’s population—out of southern areas, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In the south-western region of Satkhira, where vegetables simply grow during specific seasons or in corn sacks stuffed with compost due to the increasing acidity of the soil, tidal surges and cyclones are a growing threat.

The biggest issue in our region is the lack of clean drinking water. We are surrounded by salt water, according to local native Shampa Goswami.

Children fishing in a lake in Satkhira

shabby pictures

She added that many people who live in rural areas are not well-informed about culture issues and that weather has not been a top priority in the poll plan.

This, in Prof. Riaz’s opinion, highlights the absence of a political approach. You wo n’t be able to address a crisis like this that calls for engagement with the common people unless you have an accountable system, he said.

Since the end of military rule in 1991, the Awami League and the BNP have alternated as the nation’s leaders, and some people claim that both parties have made a mockery of politics.

” Generally, whoever is in power will act in the same way.” It is very challenging to determine which of two evils is the lesser of the two. According to AKM Mohsin, managing director of the Bangladesh Centre in Singapore, “democracy in Bangladesh is defined in the government’s officials ‘ words.”

They cling to their authority when they have it. But rather than removing opportunities for the populace through poor governance of the nation, Bangladesh definitely needs officials who work to create them.

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Indonesia navy drives away boat carrying Rohingya: Military

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Over 1,500 Rohingya have landed in Indonesia since November, according to data from the United Nations’ refugee agency (UNCHR), facing increasing hostility and rejection as locals grow frustrated at the numbers of boats arriving. On Wednesday (Dec 27), a large crowd of Indonesian students stormed a convention centre housing hundredsContinue Reading

Winter smog blankets South Asian capitals of Dhaka, New Delhi

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DHAKA: A thick layer of toxic smog wreathed Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka on Wednesday (Dec 27) as the air quality index plummeted into the “hazardous” category, while similar conditions prevailed in New Delhi, the capital of neighbouring India. The air quality in Dhaka, one of the world’s most crowded citiesContinue Reading

South Asia leads the world in food insecurity

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Misguided priorities combined with short-term political thinking have made South Asia the world’s epicenter of food insecurity, as roughly 1.4 billion (72.2%) of people in this region are unable to afford even the cheapest, locally available healthy meal. 

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s latest report, “Asia and the Pacific – Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition 2023,” many struggle to manage two square meals for their family. Clearly, government policies on food accessibility and distribution are not working well on the ground.

The underlying problem runs deep, as 74.1% of Indians, 82.8% of Pakistanis, 76.4% of Nepalis, 66.1% of Bangladeshis, and 55.5% of Sri Lankans faced serious difficulties and challenges in managing a healthy meal for their family in the 2021-22 fiscal year. It also reported that women suffered the highest prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity, at 42.7% compared with men at 37.3%. 

With almost three-fourths of the population in the region staring at a food crisis, governments in these countries must not urgently reflect on what existing policies, strategies, and institutional mandates support or hinder coherent actions toward food-system goals and how to resolve policy incoherence across sectors. Inaction will lead to more hunger, more poverty, greater inequality, and severe social unrest.

Hunger fuels unrest

Several incidents of unrest across the region since 2020 indicate that many people in these countries are unable to access basic food items because of high prices. The 2022 demonstrations in Sri Lanka show how food inflation can bring massive social unrest, and if not addressed, it can even topple the government.

Bangladesh raised fuel prices by more than 50%, which triggered protests over the rising cost of living. High inflation and rising food prices have led to a reduction in the consumption of meat and fish by 96% and 89% respectively in the last six months in Bangladesh. 

Nepal’s 29 million people are facing a surge in food and energy prices, raising the risk of social unrest. Data released by the Nepal Rastra Bank show that annual retail inflation accelerated to a six-year high of 7.52% in mid-August, thus making life for most Nepalis extremely difficult. 

In India, food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, was 8.7% in November. Food prices in Pakistan increased 27.95% in the same month. 

The above data point to the fact that about 1.4 billion people are in the midst of a crisis, struggling to access food with no clear end in sight. Unchecked high food prices are only making the situation worse.

As of today, there is neither a country-level concrete strategy or action plan, nor a joint regional level cooperation mechanism to check food prices. The food security situation will not improve unless governments regulate soaring essential food items.

Rising food prices continue to squeeze living standards of millions – and taming it should be the priority for national governments in the region.

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Sleeping on Russia’s naval resurgence in the Pacific

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China’s expanding naval presence in the Pacific Ocean and the South and East China Seas has become a major focus for Australia, the US and its allies.

Australia’s latest strategic defense review, for instance, was prompted, in part, by the rapid modernization of China’s military, as well as its increasing naval presence in the South China Sea.

According to the US Department of Defense’s most recent annual report to Congress, China’s navy has been strengthened with the addition of 30 new warships over the past 12 months. By 2030, the total number of ships is expected to increase to 435, up from the current 370.

But China is not the only potentially adversarial maritime power that is flexing its muscles in the Indo-Pacific region. Russia is becoming a cause for concern, too, even though the 2023 strategic review did not mention it.

My latest research project, Battle Reading the Russian Pacific Fleet 2023–2030, recently commissioned and published by the Royal Australian Navy, shows how deeply the Russian military is investing in replenishing its aging, Soviet-era Pacific Fleet.

Between 2022 and October 2023, for instance, it commissioned eight new warships and auxiliaries, including four nuclear-powered and conventional submarines. On December 11, two new nuclear-powered submarines formally joined the fleet, in addition to the conventional RFS Mozhaisk submarine, which entered service last month.

President Vladimir Putin, left, and Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, inspect newly built nuclear submarines in Russia’s Arctic in December 2023. Photo: Sputnik / Kremlin Pool / Mikhail Klimentyev

These figures may not look as impressive as the new Chinese vessels mentioned above, but it’s important to recognize that the Russian Navy has the unique challenge of simultaneously addressing the needs of four fleets (in the Arctic and Pacific oceans and Black and Baltic seas), plus its Caspian Sea flotilla.

Furthermore, Russia’s war in Ukraine has not had a considerable impact on the Pacific Fleet’s ongoing modernization or its various exercises and other activities. Between early 2022 and October 2023, for instance, the Pacific Fleet staged eight strategic-level naval exercises, in addition to numerous smaller-scale activities.

Rebuilding its powerful navy, partnering with China

In addition to rebuilding its once-powerful navy, the Russians are committing enormous resources to building up naval ties in the Indo-Pacific and strengthening their key maritime coalitions.

In recent months, for instance, a naval task group of the Pacific Fleet embarked on a tour across Southeast and South Asia. This tour made international headlines but was effectively overlooked by the Australian media.

The Russian warships spent four days in Indonesia, then staged their first-ever joint naval exercises with Myanmar and another exercise later with India. The ships then visited Bangladesh for the first time in 50 years, followed by stops in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines.

The tour signals a widening of Russia’s scope in the region, though its most important naval partner remains China.

According to my findings, between 2005 and October 2023, the Russian and Chinese navies have taken part in at least 19 confirmed bilateral and trilateral (also involving friendly regional navies) exercises and three joint patrols.

The most recent was carried out in mid-2023, when the Russian and Chinese joint task force was deployed to the North Pacific, not far from the Alaskan coast.

Canberra’s preoccupation with China should not make us blind to other potential adversaries that could threaten our national security in the medium to long term.

According to my estimates, by the time the Royal Australian Navy commissions its first Hunter class frigate and the first Virginia-class, nuclear-powered attack submarine begins operations in 2032, the replenished Russian Pacific Fleet would have a battle force of at least 45 core warships.

This is expected to include 19 nuclear-powered and conventional submarines, supported by minor combat and auxiliary elements. Most of these units would be newly designed and built.

This clearly shows that if war someday breaks out in the Pacific, the Russian Pacific Fleet could present a formidable challenge to Australian and allied naval fleets in the western and northwestern Pacific, as well as the Arctic.

Australia’s decision to acquire nuclear-powered platforms from the United States and United Kingdom suggests our intent to support and engage in long-range maritime operations with our allies, possibly as far as the northern Pacific and Arctic oceans.

And in times of crisis short of open war, Russia will also have more assets to support operations around Southeast Asia and in the Indian Ocean, extending its reach closer to the Royal Australian Navy’s areas of immediate concern.

Finally, the deepening naval cooperation between China and Russia could become a risk factor in its own right as the two countries seek to counter the AUKUS security pact. This is especially true with the possibility of expanded joint naval operations in the Pacific.

Despite the tyranny of distance between Australia and Russia, we are no longer irrelevant in Moscow’s strategic planning. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made this clear in recent remarks blasting AUKUS as a threat to stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

This means Australia’s navy and its maritime ambitions are increasingly being viewed as a risk factor to the Kremlin.

During the Cold War confrontation in the Asia-Pacific, the Soviet Union’s naval power in the region was a primary point of strategic concern for Australia, the US and its allies. This is once again proving to be true.

Alexey D Muraviev is Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies, Curtin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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