Dozens of crocodiles in China escape during floods

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According to Chinese authorities, Typhoon Haikui-related flooding has caused dozens of crocodiles to flee a mating land in southwestern China.

When a river in Maoming, Guangdong state overflowed, about 75 crocodiles fled in its direction.

Local government shot or electrocuted people” for health reasons ,” while some were recaptured.

Eight snakes have been rounded up thus far, according to Chinese state media, leaving heaps at large.

Local people have been instructed to stay at home.

For more than a year, Typhoon Haikui has been wreaking havoc on China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan in southern Asia.

Following the storms, which has since been downgraded to a tropical storm and has resulted in landslides and flooding, seven people have died and three more are still missing in southwestern China.

According to Maoming’s Emergency Management Bureau, 69 people and 6 young turtles managed to flee after the storms.

Although there have been no reported fatalities, authorities acknowledged that some of the reptiles are still in deep waters. Sonar technology has been used by emergency service to locate them.

A staff member at the state’s emergency bureau said,” It is now under command, but the number of alligators that escaped is a bit higher.”

According to one fire, the majority of the captured turtles have been shot to death.

According to the Washington Post, they are Japanese crocodiles. According to Crocodiles of the World, a UK park, these are fresh reptiles that can grow to be 3 meters or almost 10 feet long.

The child alligators that have been captured weigh on average about 75 kg and are longer than 2 meters, according to the fire.

Numerous reptile farms can be found in Maoming, Guangdong province. In addition to being raised for beef, they are bred for their body.

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How India overcame bitter G20 divisions over Ukraine

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India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R), US President Joe Biden (C), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (3R) and Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (3L) along with world leaders arrive to pay respect at the Mahatma Gandhi memorial at Raj Ghat on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Delhi on 10 September 2023AFP
By Soutik Biswas and Vikas Pandey
Delhi’s G20 mountain

India has achieved significant diplomatic success thanks to the G20 mutual resolve in Delhi.

Given how polarized the party was over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coming to an agreement on a joint statement appeared to be nearly impossible just days ago.

In the end, we had a resolve with no dissenting remarks and unanimous support from all G20 members.

Although important people, such as the US, the UK, Russia, and China, praised the result, Ukraine itself, which was not represented at the summit, was angry.

So how did India manage to unite countries with such diametrically opposed perspectives on Ukraine?

Some hints can be found in a careful reading of the announcement and some political developments that occurred just before the summit.

During its quarterly conference in August, the five-nation Brics class, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, decided to add six new people.

Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the new people, have close relationships to China.

The West has long been afraid of China’s growing influence, especially in the developing world, even though the development may not have directly contributed to the result of the G20 summit.

According to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, South Asia training head of the Eurasia Group,” It wasn’t a primary issue, but the West, particularly the US, is aware that China is actively attempting to establish an anti-Western global order.”

It is also well known that the West views India as China’s counterbalance and would not have preferred for Delhi to close its administration without making a statement.

US President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hold hands

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Therefore, there were numerous reasons why the West supported India in reaching a discussion.

The conflict in Ukraine was the principal sticking point. The G20’s Bali announcement from the previous year had criticized” brutality by the Russian Federation against Ukraine” and noted some members’ objections to this assessment.

It seemed improbable that the West would accept vocabulary that was less powerful than the one used in Bali, and Russia even made it clear that it would not accept a claim that Russia was to blame for the conflict.

India was in a great position to mediate the necessary find because it has cordial relations with both Moscow and the West.

The declaration ultimately used vocabulary that satisfied both Russia and Eastern nations.

It was evident that the West wanted India to succeed diplomatically. A settlement was always required. However, if there were issues in the language on which they could never reach an agreement, the US and the West would not have agreed to a mutual resolve, according to Angela Mancini, partner and head of Asia-Pacific markets at firm company Control Risks.

Analysts believe that the Delhi announcement was more forgiving than the Bali declaration in not blaming Russia for the battle. The” individual suffering and negative ramifications of the fight in Ukraine on world food and energy safety” was, however, addressed.

Officials from the UK, the US, and France ultimately seemed to concur with Russia that the summit’s announcement was a positive outcome. But, the wordings were interpreted differently by the two sides.

The declaration, according to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak,” had strong language, highlighting the impact of the war on food prices and food protection.” Sergei Lavrov, the foreign secretary of Russia, referred to the Delhi tip as a milestone.

Ukraine, however, has been upset by the sudden deal because it claimed the G20 had nothing to be happy of.

African Union Chairman and Comoros President Azali Assoumani (R) and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi hug each other during the G20 leaders' summit

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Prior to the summit, one of the main worries was the debt problems that many developing nations were experiencing.

Developing countries have long argued that wealthy countries need to boost their support in order to support their markets. The epidemic battered these, and the conflict has made their difficulties worse. The world’s poorest nations owed$ 62 billion in annual loan services to creditors, with China owing two-thirds of this, according to a World Bank report from December.

European officials have frequently accused China’s lending practices of being aggressive, but Beijing disputes this claim.

The charter could have been vetoed by China, which is closely allied with Russia, but it was not. China is not explicitly or indirectly mentioned in the article about the debt problems.

” In terms of debt reduction, we did not observe any advancement.” Any criticism of banking procedures, according to Mr. Pal Chaudhari, would have been seen in many ways as an anti-China walk.

The declaration acknowledged the crisis and urged the G20 countries to accelerate the common framework’s( CF ) implementation, which was agreed upon in 2020 to aid vulnerable countries.

Despite the fact that the G20 countries account for nearly 80 % of greenhouse gases, the team agreed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 but did not set any significant emission reduction goals.

Importantly, the announcement focused on phasing out the use of fuel rather than mentioning any targets for lowering the consumption of crude oil. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s simplistic producers would have been content with this. The West’s emission cut targets, which they consider to be” implausible ,” have even caused discomfort in China and India.

French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with US President Joe Biden

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Delhi undoubtedly put a lot of effort into gaining discussion, even if it meant making significant concessions.

It’s not surprising that some of the vocabulary was a little muffled in some places to reach that compromise, says Ms. Mancini, given that the document had to be one.

The addition of the African Union in the G20 was one issue that brought the class together even before the mountain.

It strengthened Delhi’s efforts to give developing countries from the Global South more influence on international forums.

This was” one of the most difficult G20 delegations” in the forum’s nearly 25-year history, according to a Russian government communicator. According to Svetlana Lukash of the Russian news agency Interfax, it took nearly 20 days to reach an agreement on the charter prior to the conference and five days in person.

Whether the G20 unites the wealthy and developing countries or splits the earth into two tents remains to be seen.

Leaders of the G20 nations attend the second working session of the G20 summit

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Russia hails unexpected G20 ‘milestone’ as Ukraine fumes

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A handout photo made available by the Indian Press Information Bureau (PIB) shows Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi (front R) walking with US President Joe Biden (front L) and other world leaders upon arrival at the Mahatma Gandhi"s memorial in Rajghat, New Delhi, India, 10 September 2023.EPA
by Simon Fraser in London and Zoya Mateen in Delhi.
News from BBC

Sergei Lavrov, the foreign secretary of Russia, has praised a joint statement made in Delhi by the G20 leaders that refrains from denouncing Moscow for its war against Ukraine.

According to Mr. Lavrov, Russia had not anticipated a compromise and that deal on the language was” a step in the right direction.”

The final G20 statement condemned using force for regional gain but left out any mention of Russian hostility, which drew criticism from Ukraine.

The African Union was even admitted as a permanent part during the two-day height.

The 55-member union joins at the offer of hosts India, whose president has made it a priority to increase the inclusion of so-called Global South nations in the G20.

Although there was censure of the tournament’s failure to send to phase-outing fossil fuels, the largest economies in the world reached another significant agreements in Delhi, including one on weather and biofuels.

There was no established G20″ family picture” for the second time in a column. There was no explanation given, but according to reports, many officials declined to be photographed, indicating that Russia was present at the conference.

Some people, not least on the summit’s opening moment, had anticipated a joint announcement at the G20 this year. Regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the group is bitterly fragmented. Neither Xi Jinping of China nor Vladimir Putin of Russia showed up in Delhi, sending lower-level ambassadors in their place.

Therefore, it came as a shock when Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced that the Ukraine part of the statement, which had last month’s direct criticism of Russia watered down, had reached consensus just hours after the summit began.

On Sunday, Mr. Lavrov declared that a” step” had been accomplished.

Sincerely, we didn’t anticipate that. We were prepared to defend the text’s language. In response to a query from the BBC’s Yogita Limaye, he stated that” the Global South is no longer willing to be lectured.”

The joint statement was promoted by the UK and the US as well, but Ukraine, which attended the Bali summit last year but was not invited this year, claimed it was” nothing to be happy of.”

Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi of India welcomes leaders during opening session of the G20 Leaders' Summit on September 9, 2023 in New Delhi, Delhi.

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The majority of users expressed” in the strongest terms” their regret for the Russian Federation’s aggression against Ukraine in Bali next year. The Delhi announcement, in contrast, discusses” the people suffering and additional negative effects of the war in Ukraine with regard to international food and energy security.”

In addition to urging state to” abstain from the threat or use of force to get regional skill ,” which could be interpreted as being directed at Russia, it also mentions” different views and analyses of the condition.”

According to analysts, the G20’s financial balance and power dynamics are shifting apart from Western developed market economies and toward emerging giants, especially in Asia.

There were other significant events at the tip as well, such as significant agreements aimed at combating climate change.

A complete agreement has been reached among the G20 members to” do and stimulate efforts to triple global renewable energy capacity through existing targets and policies.” More than 75 % of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the union.

In order to encourage the use of cleaner fuels, India also established a global biodiesel alliance with the US and Brazil. By facilitating industry in renewables made from plant and animal waste, the clustering aims to hasten international efforts to achieve net zero emissions targets.

India's Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi (C) along with world leaders pays respect at the Mahatma Gandhi memorial at Raj Ghat on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 10, 2023.

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On the outside of the conference, there was also a global road and port agreement connecting the Middle East and South Asia. The agreement is seen as a response to China’s Belt and Road initiative to improve world equipment.

Mr. Modi concluded months of hype and excitement by closing the summit early on Sunday evening. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil, who is assuming the presidency, received a royal hand from him.

President Lula’s talk was largely focused on issues facing developing nations.

He claimed that” we are living in a world where money is more concentrated, where millions of people continue to go hungry, in which sustainable development is perpetually threatened, and where global government institutions still reflect the reality of the 20th century.”

Leaders walked in the rain to honor Mahatma Gandhi, India’s independence warrior, at the location of his death because the rain downpours had derailed some earlier-in-the-day plans. A meeting to plant trees was downgraded to a symbolical swap of trees between G20 presidents in the past, present, and potential.

Delegates were treated to social shows, a gala dinner party, and the best of American hospitality as part of Mr. Modi’s luxurious show, which was put on from beginning to end.

However, it also sparked some debates, particularly after Mr. Modi’s sign, which introduced India as” Bharat”( which means India in Hindi ) as he opened the summit, suggested that the nation might change its name.

But, Mr. Modi and his officials hailed the occasion as a huge success and claimed that India’s G20 administration had demonstrated its leadership skills on the international stage.

Foreign Minister S Jaishankar stated,” We have sought to make this G20 as inclusive as possible.”

According to Nirmala Sitharaman, the finance minister, India has succeeded in preventing issues from obscuring the fundamental development issues facing the world.

She stated that” India’s G20 Presidency has walked the discuss safely.”

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The case for Bilawal Bhutto as Pakistan’s next prime minister

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Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a 34-year-old politician from Pakistan with an Oxford education and the head of the Pakistan People’s Party ( PPP ), is the grandson of late Zulfiqar Ali and son of former prime minister Benazir Bhatto. Bilawal, who comes from a political community and possesses strong statesmanship skills, has quickly shown that he is capable of serving as prime minister of Pakistan.

Bilawal serving as a foreign secretary

His position was significantly strengthened by his tenure as Pakistan’s foreign minister( April 2022 – August 2023 ). The ability of Bilawal Bhutto to efficiently represent Pakistan on the international stage, navigate complicated international relations, and advance Pakistan’s interests was highlighted by his leadership qualities and performance.

Bilawal Bhutto worked to strengthen relationships with local nations and emphasized the value of regional cooperation during his brief career. Local stability and economic integration, which are essential for Pakistan’s growth and security, were generally given top priority by Bilawal.

His efforts to interact with local powers like Iran, Afghanistan, and India showed his dedication to resolving disputes and fostering peace in the area. His vision for local assistance promotes a more stable and prosperous South Asia by serving the interests of Pakistan and its neighbors.

The efforts of Bilawal to strengthen Pakistan’s financial ties with China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other nations have been successful, attracting foreign direct investment and opening doors for financial expansion.

His emphasis on financial diplomacy showed that he recognized the significance of a strong market for the total development of the nation.

defending animal rights

In Pakistan, the PPP has a history of standing up for immigrants and human rights. In this regard, Bilawal Bhutto’s dedication to individual freedom, advocacy for Baloch and Pashtuns, and calls for social justice are clear. He has consistently fought against human rights violations around the world, highlighting Pakistan’s position on these problems, especially in Kashmir and Palestine.

Bilawal’s fervent support for justice and equality resonates with people around the world and demonstrates how dedicated Pakistan is to upholding basic right. His initiatives to encourage Pakistan’s position on individual rights and work with international organizations, particularly the UN and Amnesty International, show his ability to take the lead on international issues.

securing relations

In terms of Pakistan’s ties with international forces and balancing relationships, the stints of former prime minister Imran Khan and foreign secretary Shah Mahmood Qureshi were utterly insufficient and unsettling.

Bilawal made sure that Pakistan’s independence and national interests were protected by skillfully navigating the challenges of its relations with the United States, the European Union, China, and other big power. His capacity to effectively manage Pakistan’s foreign alliances and his ability to maintain a healthy approach in international relations were both demonstrated by his diplomatic prowess.

Moreover, he has actively worked to resolve regional conflicts, such as reestablishing cordial ties with Afghanistan, Iran, the Arab world, and India.

Prime Minister, why?

As prime minister, Bilawal has been positioned as a worthy leader to direct Pakistan’s foreign policy due to his thorough understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing Pakistan around the world and his proper vision.

His social savvy, which portrays him as the leader of the country’s new creation, demonstrates his ability to lead Pakistan. His command qualities were evident in his political abilities, emphasis on local assistance, promotion of financial diplomacy, advocacy for individual rights and social justice, capacity to mediate international alliances, crisis-management skills, and vision for Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Bilawal’s personality was accentuated by his ability to effectively represent Pakistan on the global stage and navigate convoluted foreign relations. Bilawal Bhutto has the possibility to become prime minister of Pakistan thanks to his corporate vision and dedication to the country’s stability and development.

Bilawal Bhutto Challenges

The long-running Kashmir debate with India is one of the most important regional issues for Pakistan. It is crucial to handle the Kashmir matter for peace and stability in the North Eastern area. Trade and business alliances between the local claims have been severely impacted by the problem.

To find a peaceful solution to the problem, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari would need to work with India and the global community for regional communication and economic participation. & nbsp,

For Pakistan’s personal safety, maintaining balance in Afghanistan is also essential. Particularly Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Islamic State of Khorasan Province militants have been greatly encouraged by the Afghan Taliban’s rise. The peace and stability of Afghanistan and Pakistan are seriously threatened by their appearance there.

Bilawal Bhutto had face significant obstacles in his efforts to forge a secure and peaceful relationship with Afghanistan through political efforts and assistance, including reestablishing normal relations with the Afghan state and combating the threat of militancy.

Pakistan hasn’t had good ties with Iran since the US imposed sanctions on it to end its nuclear programme. Pakistan’s economy would not be able to stabilize without cordial and firm ties with Iran.

It is essential to improve relations with Iran, particularly in the areas of business and power cooperation. Iran is a state with abundant fuel. Iran offers affordable diesel, gas, and non-oil products to Pakistan. It would be a significant problem for Bilawal to find ways to improve diplomatic ties if he ignored US force and grew closer with Iran. & nbsp,

The economy of Pakistan needs steady progress and balance. The main obstacle for Bilawal as prime minister would be integrating with international financial institutions, luring foreign investment, and putting good economic policies in place to revive Pakistan’s faltering business. & nbsp,

In other words, the Pakistan People’s Party, under the leadership of Bilawal Bhutto, stands a good chance of establishing the second federal government. The party’s possible success is influenced by its historical importance, Bilawal ‘ leadership qualities, appeal to the children, commitment to democracy and cultural justice, strong party architecture, regional and majority support, and the anti-incumbency issue.

However, it’s crucial to remember that social scenery can change and that the results of elections depend on a variety of factors. However, the PPP makes a strong case for Pakistani government while being led by Bilawal Bhutto.

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G20 laments war in Ukraine but avoids blaming Russia

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India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) speaks during the first session of the G20 Leaders' Summit at the Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi on September 9, 2023. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / POOL / AFP) (Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL/AFP via shabby graphics)shabby graphics
By Vikas Pandey and Soutik Biswas
G20 conference in Delhi

A joint resolution, which includes a statement on the conflict in Ukraine, has been agreed upon at the G20 summit in India.

The G20 leaders condemned the use of force for regional gain on the first day of their two-day meeting, but they refrained from criticizing Russia instantly.

The statement, according to the Polish government, is” nothing to be happy of.”

A number of international issues, such as climate change and the debt burden on developing nations, were also covered at the elevation in Delhi.

But at the G20 summit, it was a time of unexpectedly significant articles.

Given the strong divisions within the team over the conflict in Ukraine, some anticipated a joint resolution, not least on the first day of the mountain.

However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that the resolution had received widespread support.

An earlier review of the charter that was accessed by the BBC on Friday contained a clear indication that last-minute negotiations were ongoing: it stated the paragraph on Ukraine was left vacant.

The Ukraine conflict was the sticking point, as it was at the Bali summit the previous year.

The Delhi Declaration seems to be intended to make it possible for both Russia and the West to get advantages. However, in the process, it has used terminology that is less forceful in its criticism of Moscow than it was in Bali the previous year.

Although it noted that” there were other landscapes and different analyses of the condition and sanctions ,” the people in Bali condemned” in the strongest term” the brutality by the Russian Federation against Ukraine.

NEW DELHI, INDIA - SEPTEMBER 09: Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India holds a bilateral meeting with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the G20 Leaders' Summit on September 9, 2023 in New Delhi, Delhi. This 18th G20 Summit between 19 countries and the European Union, and now the African Union, is the first to be held in India and South Asia. India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is the current G20 President and chairs the summit. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/shabby graphics)

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Russia is not immediately criticized for the war in the Delhi resolution.

However, it does mention” the human suffering and additional negative effects of the Ukrainian war on the world’s food and energy security.” Additionally, it reiterated the acknowledgment of” different perspectives and evaluations.”

Importantly, rather than” the war against Ukraine ,” the declaration refers to the” war in Ukraine.” The probability that Russia would support the resolution may have increased as a result of this word choice.

Ukraine, which participated in the Bali conference, was never invited this time, and its reaction to the resolution has been negative.

The Russian foreign ministry tweeted,” G20 has nothing to be glad of in terms of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”

The African Union( AU) was formally invited to join the G20 as a permanent member by Mr. Modi, which was the other major development.

As the cornerstone of its president, Delhi prioritized elevating the tones of these countries. In the near future, it is prepared to benefit from this strategic decision as it competes with China for influence in Asia and Africa.

African Union Chairman and Comoros President Azali Assoumani (R) and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi hug each other during the first session of the G20 Leaders' Summit at the Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi on September 9, 2023. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / POOL / AFP) (Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL/AFP via shabby graphics)

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The choice is also great news for Africa, which has 1.4 billion inhabitants and will now have a larger voice at international events like the G20.

Another fiercely debated subject was climate change.

There had been no consensus on the matter at the governmental level meetings in the weeks leading up to the mountain. However, officials now claim to have reached” 100 % consensus.”

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (L), India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) and US President Joe Biden attend a session as part of the G20 Leaders' Summit at the Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi on September 9, 2023. (Photo by EVELYN HOCKSTEIN / POOL / AFP) (Photo by EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/POOL/AFP via shabby graphics)

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There has been a clear give-and-take on the environment in the resolution.

The G20 nations will” pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally through existing targets and plans ,” according to the statement. More than 75 % of greenhouse gas emissions come from G20.

In the past, developing countries had resisted raising their goals for renewable energy, cutting back on fossil fuel use, and lowering their emissions of greenhouse gases.

Developing countries have been able to buy day for greenhouse pollution to peak, at which point they will need to decrease.

According to the declaration,” timeframes for rising may be shaped by sustainable development, needs for poverty eradication, equity, and in accordance with various federal circumstances.”

The Green Development Pact, a plan to address the climate crisis through international cooperation over the next ten years, has also been emphasized by specialists.

In order to assist developing nations’ transitions to lower emissions, the G20 nations have also committed to working together to provide low-cost financing.

India had performed” fairly well” on natural finance, according to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, head of the Eurasia Group’s South Asia practice.

” Green finance presently primarily originates in wealthy nations and travels between rich nations.” Private funding is essential to this funding. Yet emerging markets don’t grasp it. India has made efforts to alter that. Getting multilateral development banks to start de-risking private capital moves in the clean space is at the heart of it, he said.

Leaders of the G20 nations attend the second working session of the G20 Leaders' Summit at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi on September 9, 2023. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / POOL / AFP) (Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL/AFP via shabby graphics)

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Then there is the rising worry about debts. According to the World Bank, the world’s poorest countries have to pay bilateral creditors an annual debt service of more than$ 60 billion, which increases the likelihood of defaults. China is owed two-thirds of this bill.

The organization has stated that it wants to aid in the loan management of these nations. The Delhi Declaration has pledged to handle the country’s loan risks.

Navin Singh Khadka provided extra coverage.

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How countries prepare for population growth and decline

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India overtook China as the most populous nation in the world at the beginning of this year, with China having 850, 000 fewer individuals by the end of 2022, marking the nation’s earliest population decline since the famine that struck from 1959 to 1961.

Given China’s current population of 1.4 billion, this reduction may seem respectable, but it is expected to continue. According to UN projections, China may have fewer than 800 million people living there by the year 2100.

Communities change as a result of emigration, immigration, deaths, and birth. China’s past one-child plan, which was in effect from 1980 to 2015, slowed its birth rate as a result of gender inequality. The Chinese authorities is currently working to increase delivery charges, including by outlawing pregnancy.

According to the 18th-century The & nbsp Malthusian population growth model, populations grow exponentially and outpace resource availability until unavoidable obstacles like famine, disease, conflict, or other problems cause it to decline.

These worries were prevalent in the early 1960s, during the high global population growth rates of & nbsp. However, population growth has drastically slowed globally, and healthy decline is currently underway in China and many other nations.

According to current population trends, a 2020 study published in the Lancet medical journal & nbsp found that more than 20 nations are on track to halve their populations by 2100. While the Center of Expertise on Population and Migration( CEPAM ) predicts the global population will peak at 9.8 billion around & nbsp, 2070 to 2080, the Pew Research think-tank predicted that 90 countries‘ populations would decline by 2100.

Governments and economics everywhere are plagued by the worry of an aging and shrinking population. A reduced labor force will be put under strain by increased payment to the pension and social security systems, while younger communities may also add more to financial growth and innovation. Countries may also see a decline in their influence on the world, no the least of which is the smaller community that is available for military service.

The total fertility rate ( TFR ), which measures the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, is the most prevalent of the metrics that measure fertility and birth rates. However, it has proven difficult to achieve replacement-level fertility rates, which are usually 2.1 children and nbsp per female.

The decline in global fertility rates may be attributed to societal and cultural changes, family planning initiatives, expanded access to contraceptives, improved child mortality rates, increased cost of child rearing, urbanization, postponed marriages and pregnancy due to educational and career pursuits, and social welfare systems that lessen reliance on parental support.

Asia’s north

A prime example is Japan, whose inhabitants peaked in 2008 at 128 million and has since decreased to less than 123 million. By the end of the century, it is expected to have a population of 72 million, with its decline being supported by low fertility rates, an aging population( almost andnbsp, 30 % of people are 65 or older ), and limited immigration. Changes to immigration laws, government-sponsored speed dating, and other measures are being taken to decrease this decline.

Surprisingly, despite reaching a record low & nbsp in 2022, Japan’s TFR is now higher than those of China and South Korea. More than US$ 200 billion has been invested by South Korea since 2006 in the creation of common nursery facilities, free gardens, discounted care, and other programs to increase its TFR. & nbsp, However, South Korea’s TFR continues to be the lowest in the world at 0.78.

Earlier in the 21st century, South Korea’s state also implemented immigration reforms, all the while leading the world in technology with 1, 000 robots per 10,000 employees, more than twice the price of second-ranked Japan.

Europe

In Europe, efforts to increase population have been ongoing for a long time. For instance, in 1966, Romania & nbsp made abortion illegal and outlawed contraception, with the exception of certain medical conditions. As a result, there were more improper abortions, and in the 1980s Romania had the highest level of maternal mortality in all of Europe.

Romania’s TFR stabilized at 2.3 % by the late 1980s, but it collapsed in the 1990s along with immigration and nbsp, a community migration that has been ongoing since Romania joined the European Union in 2007.

Similar Birthrate declines and emigration have occurred in different Eastern European countries andnbsp. Western European nations, on the other hand, have only been able to grow marginally since 2000, primarily as a result of emigration. However, populations have been declining in nations like Italy, which has prompted government efforts to sell homes to immigrants for as little as€ 1 in an effort to repopulate small towns.

a country in the U.S.

In comparison to the majority of European nations, the US has a lower average age and nbsp. In the 2000s, TFR prices also increased. However, this decreased after the 2008 crisis and has never fully recovered.

And in contrast to Western nations, living expectancy continued to decline following the Covid-19 pandemic. These problems have been alleviated by Immigration & nbsp, but the US population growth rate has significantly slowed as a result of political unrest in Europe.

The US and nbsp promote family-planning initiatives internationally even though there is no official plan to increase birth rates.

Since 1984, the Mexico City Policy, which mandated that foreign non-governmental organizations ( NGOs ) not” perform or actively promote abortion as a method of family planning” in order to receive US government funding for family-planning initiatives, has oscillated between the Republican and Democratic administrations.

Russia

Following the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia’s TFR experienced a sharp drop that peaked at 1.16 in 1999 and led to people decline. Authorities efforts, however, saw it rise to 1.8 in 2014 before falling once more.

The Kremlin announced increased bills for kids of at least two youngsters as well as the desired TFR of 1.7 in 2020. Russia has even relied on immigration to further stabilize its people.

Iran

Iran’s policies regarding birth rates have changed over the past several years. Iran & nbsp implemented fertility controls in the 1950s, but they were eliminated following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But, they were reintroduced in the late 1980s to ease economic force.

Iran’s TFR, once regarded as a” success story,” decreased more quickly than expected to 1.6 in 2012. The government started limiting exposure to birth control, abortion, and vasectomies in an effort to increase the delivery rate that time.

Asia South

India currently holds the title of most popular nation in the world, but its TFR is currently below replacement levels. Despite this, its people will keep expanding thanks to a sizable, young population— a demographic trait that is becoming more prevalent throughout the Global South.

While it is ultimately anticipated that India’s population will start to decline by the 2060s, the country is currently managing its young population through initiatives andnbsp, such as fostering employment opportunities abroad.

Beyond untapped financial possible, there are risks associated with not using a sizable working population and nbsp. Big young populations can cause major social and political upheaval in the absence of financial prospects. Pakistan is attempting to slow down its population growth in order to prevent aggravating pressures on its resources, system, educational system, and healthcare systems.

home organizing

Pakistan’s worries resemble those of a large portion of Africa. The top 20 nations with the highest TFR & nbsp, excluding Afghanistan, are all located in Africa. Nigeria’s population is expected to increase from 213 million to 550 million & nbsp by the year 2100, and some projections show that between 2020 and 2050, half of all births will occur in Africa. However, family planning programs have aided slower progress across the globe in recent years.

In contrast, the experience of nations where fertility-supporting campaigns have had some success( such as & nbsp, Germany, and ThenBsP, Czech Republic and Hungary ) suggests that direct financial incentives, tax breaks, affordable / free childcare facilities, generous maternity / paternity leave, housing assistance, as well as more adaptable approaches to work-life balance, are effective at halting decline.

In the past, gender equality has frequently been cited as a challenge to higher delivery costs, but this doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. For instance, in 1980, highly educated women in the US and nbsp had the lowest fertility level; however, this was untrue in 2019.

Also, by 2005, Mongolia’s TFR had decreased from 7.3 children per woman in 1974 to under two. & nbsp, But by 2019, Mongolian birth rates had risen to about three children per woman, despite the fact that women in Mongolia were becoming more educated, more represented in the population, in traditionally male-dominated fields, and had better access to rural maternal health services.

However, the recent population boom & nbsp in Mongolia has led to problems like housing shortages, pollution, school crowding, and other problems, necessitating the development of flexible strategies for population stabilization and growth.

Different parts of the world will need different measures to deal with fluctuating population numbers this century, with a median age of 44.4 years & nbsp in Europe and one of about 19 in Africa.

China is not the only nation that believes that it will age before becoming wealthy, and that such nations will create their own strategies to deal with aging cultures. Priority should be given to developing long-term green approaches to people management that avoid force but also offer assistance for those raising children.

Asia Times received this article from & nbsp, Globetrotter, who also produced it.

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Slums hidden as India puts on its best face for G20

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A new look of Gandhi Darshan where new installations along with Sculptures are placed ahead of G20 Summit at Rajghat on September 1, 2023 in New Delhi, India.shabby pictures
Zoya Mateen
Delhi-based BBC News

You will come across billboards with Bollywood stars endorsing several products on any given time as you stroll down an American road.

However, over the past year, G20 summit banners have appeared everywhere in the nation. They have been displayed on sizable LED displays and are taped to power poles and tucked behind uk-tuks.

The posters prominently feature India’s official G20 logo, which is compared to the Bharatiya Janata Party( BJP ) symbol and features a globe encircled by blooming lotuses. They are accompanied by images of Prime Minister Modi, Narendra.

The government wants to convey that India has entered the global level.

The nation has hosted 200 pre-summit meetings with yoga, cultural performances, and specially curated menus in more than 50 cities, with a reported budget for hosting the G20 exceeding$ 100 million(£ 78 million ).

On American news channels, there has been perplexing policy of events for months in an effort to entice even those who are typically blind to the subtleties of foreign policy.

Now that the principal summit is only two days away, Delhi has been prepared for what is regarded as the most high-profile occasion to be held in India in recent memory.

The American flag, rose pots, and sculptured fountains have all been erected throughout the city. The mountain logo has been placed on dozens of historic sites, and people are swarming to take selfies. Famous flowers in the city have undergone a makeover, their leaf has been freshly pruned, and flags of participating countries have been flown.

However, there is another aspect to the decoration campaign. Some neighborhoods have temporary fabric walls built in front of them to block their view, and in some cases, occupants have been moved. It’s unclear where the gypsies have been relocated after being evicted from the center of the city.

Traffic moves past a G20 logo installed in front of the main venue of the summit in New Delhi, India, August 25, 2023.

Reuters

In advance of the event, the state has declared three days of vacation for the majority of schools and offices, closed important bridges, and deployed thousands of security personnel. Numerous railways and flights have been canceled.

Never before has India hosted so some world leaders simultaneously.

The G20 is the most crucial platform to reach India’s goal of bridging the gap between international policy and local government. Former American ambassador Jitendra Nath Misra claims that the government is aware of this.

However, despite the carnival-like atmosphere, Delhi will still face the difficult task of preventing problems from derailing its goals, such as the Ukraine war, which tore the group apart at the G20 summit in Bali next year.

” India did hope that agreeable issues rather than controversial people like Ukraine will be the focus.” Although it hasn’t been able to do that thus much, Mr. Misra predicts that it will do so in the future.

India has stated that since taking office as president of the G20, it wants to prioritize issues that have a overwhelmingly negative impact on developing countries, such as climate change, rising debt, digital transformation, inflation, and food and energy security.

Students give final touches to paintings of US President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Modi, Narendra and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at an art school in Mumbai on September 5, 2023, ahead of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi.

shabby pictures

According to Happymon Jacob, a professor of foreign policy at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, the conference will take place as the” Global South” has managed to establish itself as an important player in the international order and Western nations have realized that” their exclusive venues may alone solve the problems of the world.”

Many nations then question the value of a website dominated by the West like the G20, which they assert is focused on an outmoded international distribution of power, in light of rising inequality, great food and fuel prices, and climate change.

Security has been beefed up across Delhi and armed forces have conducted many drills

shabby pictures

This, according to Mr. Jacob, was most obvious during the crisis, when India assisted nations in Africa, South Asia, and also China,” while the European countries were just looking after themselves.”

In the future, there must be” a converging point” between the two sides of the globe, and India hopes to provide that at the summit.

” We are with you and we are willing to result from the front,” the communication was sent to the local populace and the Global South. You never afford to ignore the worries coming from this region of the world under India’s command, Mr. Jacob continues, adding to the global community.

For example, Mr. Misra claims that India’s willingness to support developing nations is reflected by the plan to include the African Union in the G20.

India believes it has the power and resources to accomplish this because it is one of the world’s most prosperous financial regions.

The Delhi state, however, will find it difficult to try to bridge the gap between developed and developing nations because of its precarious geopolitical location.

Given how much money it has spent promoting a G20 summit under Mr. Modi’s authority, it will also be under pressure to produce results internally. He will want to demonstrate his ability to strengthen India’s position in the global community, particularly during the months leading up to the general vote the following year.

Bharat Mandapam - a newly built venue - will host the summit in Delhi

shabby pictures

Usually, international policy hasn’t had much of an impact on Indian democratic elections unless it’s about the immediate region, like Pakistan or China, or the US in recent years.

But under Mr. Modi, that is changing because both he and Indians are idealistic and concerned with their standing in the world.

” He has established himself as a leading international diplomat. That image would be enhanced by a significant and effective performance at the G20, according to Mr. Jacob.

Even if Ukraine disrupts the mountain, according to Mr. Misra, people will” look at the carnival, the great show” and believe it has improved the nation’s standing on the international stage.

However, Mr. Modi has a lot of job to do at home, including creating employment for millions of people, for instance.

Then there are issues with individual rights. Since Mr. Modi took office in 2014, according to opposition events and protesters, there has been an increase in hate crimes against Muslims and other people. However, his government refutes these claims, claiming that all Indians have been covered by its guidelines.

And during the conference, Mr. Modi wants to convey that message to both domestic and international audiences.

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The West and the ‘double standards’ smear

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When the West asserts to support an international rules-based attempt or any other type of moral or social values, Russia and China seize every opportunity to criticise it of” double requirements” or hypocrisy.

Smaller and middle-class nations in Asia, Africa, or Latin America frequently gladly accept this accusation because they don’t want to be perceived as belonging to the American, if not worse, camp and they dislike hearing lectures from the West about what they should do.

This strategy can work, at least temporarily, especially for the Russians and Chinese as well as for those members of what is misleadingly referred to as” the Global South” who understandably want to kick back against histories of colonialism. It can also work as a way to draw attention away from their own transgressions. However, in both scenarios, this line of thinking actually serves as a complement to the West because it highlights its inherent allure.

The” twice standards” smear is significant because it emphasizes that the West does have specifications and stands for certain principles, despite the fact that it has a far from ideal track record. China and Russia don’t, and both countries have a terrible track history in terms of standards and values.

These two nuclear-armed power issued a joint statement on February 4 and nbsp, 2022, which lectured the world that it was” going through momentous adjustments” and denounced” some players” who” continue to advocate unilateral approaches to addressing global issues and resort to force ,” as well as” interfere in the internal affairs of another states.”

All was aware that the US and its allies in Europe and Asia were meant by” some players” like Russia and China.

However, some political figures or commentators in Asia, Africa, or Latin America bothered to point out that both Russia and China had only demonstrated their fools when Russia attempted the violent invasion of its neighbour Ukraine, a move that was the best” punitive approach” and” resort to force.”

The reason is that everyone is aware that Russia or China’s even requirements are those that serve their unique national interests or the objectives of their autocratic rulers. To use a sports expression, hypocrisy and other blatant inconsistencies are just the norm.

Fact of American dishonesty

Even when speaking to their own peoples, American nations have a history of being dishonest. While together telling itself it stood for democratic values, including politics, Britain established a global kingdom based on conquering and racial discrimination.

The United States has asserted” to hold these truths to be self – evident, that all men are created equal” since its Declaration of Independence from Britain in 1776, while simultaneously practicing bondage, massacring indigenous peoples, and denying black Americans similar civil right up until the 1960s( or, some may say, up to the present ).

However, the desire to better oneself and achieve higher norms has long been the central tenet of the West.

The United Nations Charter of 1945 marked the beginning of a procedure that the current West led to establish international norms, institutions, and rules that acknowledged the fact that some countries, particularly the great power, had committed dangerous sins during the first half of the 20th century.

That approach aimed to try to compel nations to act in accordance with higher and more beneficial standards than in the past. So, the UN Charter was not a claim to superiority but rather an admission or approval of its flaws.

However, it is always alluring and necessary to hold the West accountable.

For instance, in 2020 Kishore Mahbubani, a well-known public academic and former Singaporean ambassador to the UN, wrote an essay titled” The Hypocrisy of the West” denouncing America’s use of torture in the wake of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and claiming that this inconsistency in previous moral and legal positions was actively encouraging others to use torture as well as undermining American credibility.

In that article, which is part of Mahbubani’s now-well-read series, The Asian 21st Century, he asserted that” when the US started torturing people, it was thus declaring ,”” Thou shalt torture people.” This” double standards” criticism is ineffective because it is a blatant misrepresentation of the nature of what he refers to as” Western moral reasoning.”

the importance of variety

Since the emergence of German philosophy in the so-called Enlightenment of the 17th and 18th centuries, the core of American moral reasoning has been one of discussion, experimentation, and an admission of uncertainty. The previously” brutally ironclad” argument based on religion and the purported divine right of kings was replaced by this liberal acceptance of doubt and variety.

The West today is characterized by a great deal of variety and experiment, including in regards to ethics and human rights, in the nations of Europe, North America, and Asia.

The US and Japan are criticized by Europeans for using the death sentence. Japan lags behind the majority of other countries in terms of gender equality, particularly when it comes to equal rights for queer people and others. We all criticize one another’s immigration policies, fairness networks, and even governments.

It would be a mistake for any American nation to center its foreign policy on morality lectures, precisely because of that variety and discussion. Additionally, it is wise for any European interventions in other nations’ affairs, such as those made in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya over the past 20 years, to be carried out with broad international support and specific goals based on UN Charter principles and procedures.

Unilateralism, as has occasionally been used by the United States, albeit typically( as in Iraq ) supplemented by a small number of colleagues, clouds these guidelines and produces worse results.

Following a military coup, ECOWAS ( Economic Community of West African States ) nations are currently considering armed action in their representative condition of Niger.

In the end, the issue that South, Southeast, and African nations are facing as a result of China’s bullying activities in the South China Sea and Russian invasion of Ukraine remains one that they can eventually depend on to advance norms and standards that are advantageous to all.

It is better to trust those nations that often sin than those that do not actually understand the concept of crime( or clearly lie about it when they do ), the more Russia and China accuse the West of having double standards.

In fact, it might be wiser to divide the world into those who understand the concept of criteria and those that blatantly don’t, as American leaders occasionally have a tendency to do.

The real danger to the West is the possibility that the United States will eventually abandon those standards entirely, not the issue of twin requirements. Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2024— a gentleman who rejects the idea of specifications— may pose a serious threat to the West because it would eliminate the fundamental distinctions between it, Russia, and China.

Much dwell the change, as the French say, andnbsp, vive la différence.

Bill Emmott, who was formerly The Economist’s editor-in-chief, is currently the chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, International Trade Institute, Japan Society for the UK, and the & nbsp.

This article was originally published in English on the Mainichi Shimbun’s Substack blog & nbsp and is being republished with kind permission. It is the slightly edited original of a Japanese-languge Jidai no Kaze( winds of the era ) column that was published on August 27.

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Achieving SDGs amid global disruptions

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The world finds itself at a crossroads, facing a multitude of formidable challenges – repercussions from the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical turmoil across the globe, and climate emergencies. The urgency of addressing these issues cannot be overstated.

Governments worldwide stand at a unique juncture where they must chart a course toward sustainable development, simultaneously fostering economic opportunity, averting an ecological collapse, and global well-being improvement. This convergence of priorities brings into sharp focus the 2030 agenda for sustainable development, encapsulating the collective ambition to create a better world.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) consist of 17 interlinked objectives established by the United Nations in 2015. They provide a universal framework for all countries, irrespective of their development status, to address global challenges, enhance well-being, and protect the environment.

These goals serve as a shared blueprint for international peace and prosperity, guiding efforts toward a more equitable and sustainable world by 2030, while encouraging collaboration among governments, organizations and individuals to combat poverty, inequality, environmental degradation, and other pressing global issues.

However, the journey toward realizing these SDGs has been met with unforeseen turbulence, primarily due to the profound impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The progress achieved thus far has been dealt a setback of historic proportions, with the COV SARS-2 virus reverberating through global health-care systems and international markets, development finance, undoing breakthroughs and stifling advancements that had been painstakingly forged.

Correlation between Covid-19 Infection Rates (2020) and SDG Index Score Growth Rates (2020 compared with 2019) – for High-Income, Upper-Middle Income, Lower-Middle Income and Low-Income Economies. Source: Sustainable Development Report 2020, Sustainable Development Solutions Network

The Covid-19 pandemic emerged as an unprecedented disruptor, severely damaging the SDG agenda. The effects have been felt across the board, with significant declines in global SDG index scores and a concerning increase in poverty, marking the first instance of such regression in decades – an additional 119 million to 124 million people had been pushed into extreme poverty, where South Asia accounts for 60% of this figure.

One of the most pronounced impacts has been on public health and quality of life. The pandemic’s diversion of medical services and the strain on health-care systems have undone decades of progress toward SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being). As a result, achieving improved health and well-being for all is now a more formidable challenge than ever before.

Education suffers

SDG 4 (Quality Education), a fundamental pillar of the sustainable development agenda, has suffered significantly.

In 2020, efforts (which some critics found highly questionable) to slow the spread of the respiratory ailment disrupted the educational journeys of more than 1.52 billion adolescents and children worldwide, erasing nearly two decades of academic progress. The repercussions of this setback will likely be felt for generations.

The economic fallout has been equally severe, with the world grappling with its most significant financial crisis since that of 2007-08. During 2020 the world’s collective GDP fall by 3.4%, indicating a substantial decline in economic output. The second wave of Covid-19 resulted in the loss of about 7.5 million jobs, hitting various sectors hard, and severely threatening SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Ukraine war

Adding to this conundrum, the already complex geopolitical landscape across the globe has only intensified these challenges. The war between Ukraine and Russia is a stark reminder that conflicts in one corner of the world have far-reaching, global ramifications.

It underscores the inextricable link among peace, territorial harmony, and economic prosperity. Armed conflicts have consequences beyond immediate violence; they often result in widespread agricultural abandonment, severely compromising food security.

To be sure, the conflict has disrupted global energy markets, causing fluctuations in energy prices and supply – household energy costs have nearly doubled due to disruptions in the global energy supply chain.

This disruption has been particularly felt in South Asia, where energy markets have been thrown into crisis due to uncertainty in energy supply and increased prices. The collapse of piped gas supplies from Russia has forced countries, including Europe, to seek energy alternatives, often turning to Asia for energy sourcing.

The impact of such conflicts extends beyond the devastation wrought by war itself. Trade wars between significant economies have inadvertently triggered ecological crises, with instances of deforestation and overuse of agricultural land.

The Ukraine-Russia war, for example, has already caused severe damage and loss of life, expanding its reach from population centres to rural areas, and resulting in massive displacement and loss of livelihoods.

According to the UN Security Council, about 14 million people were displaced by the conflict in Europe. This global issue of migration cuts across the entire spectrum of the 2030 Agenda, influencing all 17 SDGs.

Migration-related targets span labor migration, international student mobility, human trafficking, remittances, etc. Recognizing and addressing these complex interlinkages between migration and each SDG is essential for a comprehensive approach to these challenges.

Governments face a pressing need to enhance the accomplishment of the UN SDGs in the face of complex geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. In the short term, immediate actions are crucial.

Strengthening health-care infrastructure is vital to withstand future health crises, while restoring lost incomes, especially among vulnerable groups, is essential. Ensuring resource security is paramount, particularly for food, water and energy.

Looking ahead, governments must adopt systematic, long-term strategies for inter-departmental cooperation to address the interconnected nature of the SDGs. Identifying and tackling immediate challenges such as poverty, food security, and resource supply is vital. Simultaneously, fostering scientific progress and communication is essential in the longer horizon.

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Unmasking Russia’s military soft spots in Asia

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Russia faces four potential military problems in the Indo-Pacific:

  1. Vulnerability of the sea leg of its nuclear triad as part of the Pacific Fleet;
  2. Escalation of tensions around Japan’s territorial claims to the Kuril Islands;
  3. Large-scale regional armed conflicts, primarily on the Korean Peninsula, but also around Taiwan or in the South China Sea, and between India and China;
  4. Shifts in strategic trends between Russia and China, and between Russia and India.

Russia’s regional security outlook revolves around these four problems.

The future deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the region by the United States and its allies (especially Japan and the Republic of Korea) is a direct threat to Russian strategic nuclear forces. These missiles could also lead to a clash in the Kuril Islands due to aggressive actions by Japan.

The US Army and US Marine Corps both have programs nearing completion (LRHW Dark Eagle and SMRF Typhon for the former, and uncrewed Long Range Fires launchers for the latter).

Japan is also actively developing such capabilities (including in the hypersonic domain), and the Republic of Korea has already fielded such weapons, namely the advanced missiles of the Hyunmoo family.

The integration of early warning and space situational awareness systems by the United States, Republic of Korea, and Japan should be considered in the same context. In the long term, this will likely result in the buildup of joint and integrated air and missile defense, as well as counterspace capabilities, including through the development and forward deployment of new land- and sea-based missile defense capabilities by those countries.

Meanwhile, the Australia-United Kingdom-United States trilateral partnership (dubbed AUKUS) – which will equip the Australian Defense Force with nuclear-powered submarines and long-range precision weapons and strengthen Australian anti-submarine warfare capabilities – will further increase threats to both the submarine and surface forces of the Russian Pacific Fleet.

Artist rendering of possible design for SSN-AUKUS submarines. Image: Wikimedia Commons

Australian submarines will free up US Navy forces and assets to counter the Russian Navy and, possibly, patrol in the Northern Pacific themselves. The fielding of increasingly capable anti-submarine warfare patrol aircraft also contributes to increasing vulnerabilities for Russia.

None of these developments has been explicitly labeled “anti-Russian,” but capability matters more than policy.

Adversary pressure in the immediate vicinity of the Russian sea, air and land borders in the Indo-Pacific is also maintained by freedom-of-navigation operations, flights of bomber aircraft (within the so-called Dynamic Force Employment doctrine) and reconnaissance flights by the United States and its allies – including during exercises and tests of Russian strategic nuclear forces.

The United States’ and allies’ interests in establishing and enforcing so-called “air defense identification zones” – a fictional concept that often leads to media headlines about “airspace violations” – create additional pressure.

The “materialization” of US extended nuclear deterrence, expressed not only in a declarative “nuclear umbrella” for allies, but also in the possible forward deployment of nuclear warheads, adds another dimension to these problems.

Moreover, there seem to be changes to the way extended deterrence operates. US nuclear capabilities protect “US allies and partners,” but the latter’s conventional forces are developing a role in facilitating and supporting US missions involving nuclear weapons.

To put it more bluntly: enhanced and expanded allied non-nuclear capabilities now enable US nuclear missions, aligning with the new US concept of integrated deterrence.

As for possible armed conflicts in the region, be it in the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or South Asia, each would have a direct effect on Russia as a Pacific country.

The consequences of such conflicts would lead to dramatic changes in supply chains (which already face immense pressure due to the breakdown of relations between Russia and “the West”), the shake-up of the regional markets (which are increasingly important for Russian exports and imports) and migration waves.

The result would have direct effects on the Russian economy. The effects would be even greater because of the inevitable involvement of China, Russia’s strategic partner.

So far, Russia has managed to maintain relatively stable and even fruitful relations with both China and India. Its relationship with Japan suffers, however, and the relationship with the Republic of Korea will probably follow suit – due both to Seoul’s ever-growing involvement in providing military industrial support to Western countries and to Moscow’s possible cooperation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

To be sure, the future of Russia-China and Russia-India relations will depend not only on Moscow, but also on Beijing and New Delhi. Given increasing strategic tensions – augmented by the United States’ interest in rallying India to the US side against China as well as in limiting Russia-India cooperation – established strategic relations might evolve.

These changes might not lead to direct military conflicts but could well drive Moscow to greatly re-prioritize Russian military development.

Russia’s military security depends squarely on the Russian Far East. The Pacific Fleet has the most advanced SSBNs of the Borei family. New surface ships and submarines with Kalibr cruise missiles are entering service.

Anti-ship and air/missile defense missile batteries are deployed to the Kuril Islands and throughout the region. And even a new heavy bomber regiment might be established. The Russian Navy and Long-Range Aviation also routinely hold joint patrols with their Chinese counterparts.

Chinese troops under a Russian flag in a file photo. Image: RT

Furthermore, the deployment of US-made intermediate-range, ground-launched missiles in the region (which seems inevitable) would mean the so-called “moratorium” on such weapons no longer stands, and Russia will likely deploy similar capabilities as well, with everyone’s security undermined.

But Russia has bigger vulnerabilities, in that it lacks general-purpose naval forces: submarines, surface ships, and aviation. At this point, it is unclear if the Russian defense industry can address this problem in view of the priority it gives to the Western front. Growing military-technical cooperation with China might offer a solution, however.

Still, if Russia wants to remain a relevant military power both in the region and globally, Moscow must do more. Otherwise, even the ability to sustain the regionally deployed elements of its nuclear triad will be questioned – both by adversaries and partners.

Dmitry Stefanovich ([email protected]) is a research fellow at the Center for International Security, IMEMO Russian Academy of Sciences.

This article was first publishled by Pacific Forum. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.

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