Social healing with conditions

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Teerayut: Lodge crucial petitions
Teerayut: Lodge crucial petitions

Just because something is dormant, it doesn’t mean it’s dead. That was how sceptics described efforts in parliament to push through an bill granting amnesty to political offenders in the name of social healing after years of bitter divisions in the country.

These efforts have reached the stage where an ad hoc House committee has finalised a study on the design of the amnesty bill, which has run into problems over whether offenders of Section 112 of the Criminal Code, or the lese majeste law, should be granted an amnesty too.

Critics have argued that most lese majeste offenders, particularly those charged in connection with the youth-led protest movement in recent years, are facing the consequences for defaming the monarch, which is a criminal offence and for that reason, they should be punished.

A source noted only two parties, the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the main opposition People’s Party (PP), backed an amnesty covering lese majeste law violators.

No other parties have stepped forward to support them.

Even the opposition Thai Sang Thai Party has warned that including Section 112 violators among amnesty beneficiaries would derail the law’s original goal of absolving political offenders.

Critics have chastised Pheu Thai and the PP for having a vested interest in making an “all-in” amnesty law a reality.

Pheu Thai’s alleged de facto leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, was arraigned on June 18 on lese majeste and computer crime charges, which stem from comments he made during an interview with the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo on May 21, 2015.

Thaksin allegedly defamed the monarchy by claiming privy councillors supported the 2014 military coup that ousted his younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.

Thaksin was released on 500,000-baht bail and is prohibited from leaving the country without court permission.

The PP, on the other hand, has a lot riding on the youth-led protest leaders and members — several of whom are being tried or were convicted on multiple lese majesty counts — being amnestied.

The movement trumpets reform and advocates radical changes to Section 112, deemed by conservatives as vital for defending the monarchy. The reforms sought by the protest group, which commands a large student and young voter following, are closely aligned, if not identical, to those of the Move Forward Party (MFP), which was dissolved for allegedly attempting to overthrow the constitutional monarchy. The MFP was reborn as the PP.

The source said the PP stands to gain more than it loses from having youth-led protest leaders exonerated with an amnesty law.

The party, through successive dissolutions of its predecessors going right back to the Future Forward Party, could be running out of luminaries among its leadership, who exude magnetism and the calibre needed to maintain and expand the PP’s support ahead of the next general election in three years.

Leaders of the youth movement, such as former human rights lawyer Anon Nampa, currently jailed on a lese majeste charge, could fill a void in the party, according to the source.

However, some observers have argued that admitting protest figures to a political party has significant risks. For one, there is no telling if, after an exoneration, they will insult the monarchy again, which could cause the party’s downfall.

Many observers believe the prospect of Section 112 offenders being incorporated into an amnesty bill that will be passed by parliament is very slim, and the Senate is unlikely to support it.

A credible gauge of the Senate’s stance on the issue may be the Bhumjaithai Party’s position not to support an amnesty law covering lese majeste offenders. After all, some 150 of the 200 senators have been labelled as having a “blue” affiliation. Blue is the colour of Bhumjaithai.

As resistance mounts against the amnesty push in parliament, the House study panel has delayed tabling its report on the bill to lawmakers for consideration.

The PP and Pheu Thai are pushing for an amnesty to be accepted by parliament. However, the push is stalled pending a parliamentary debate on the study panel report.

According to the panel, there are three camps: those who want the Section 112 offence excluded from the amnesty bill, those who favour its inclusion, and those who want it included under special conditions.

Last week, the study report reached parliament, and a lengthy debate got underway, only to be cut short by Deputy House Speaker Pichet Chuamuangpan, who adjourned the session. Mr Pichet said he had to call a halt as the debate had become a drawn-out affair and inconclusive.

Nikorn Chamnong, secretary to the study committee, said the committee’s report recommends the government sponsor the amnesty bill but an amnesty should only be limited to 25 crimes.

As for Section 112, he agreed it is a delicate issue which requires deeper discussion.

Despite what some observers have interpreted as the committee’s aptness to backtrack on its commitment to have an amnesty bill enacted, the source said the moves seeking amnesty for Section 112 offenders may be losing momentum. However, they can eventually succeed as long as Pheu Thai and the PP are up for it.

The Senate may not pose a hindrance if Pheu Thai can cut an irresistible political deal with Bhumjaithai, compelling it to soften its opposition to Section 112 offenders gaining an amnesty.

Signs point to ominous times

Despite not yet accepting a petition against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai Party, the Constitutional Court’s request for details from the Office of Attorney-General (OAG) is expected to create unease within the ruling party, according to political observers.

Pichet: Had to halt debate

Pichet: Had to halt debate

First, the petition in question was lodged by lawyer Teerayut Suwankesorn, who previously earned recognition for his petition asking the court to order the then Move Forward Party (MFP) to cease all activities related to the lese majeste law.

The court ruled in Mr Teerayut’s favour in January this year, and the ruling triggered a series of events that resulted in the disbandment of the MFP and political bans for the party’s executives.

Next, the accusation against Thaksin echoed those made against the MFP. Mr Teerayut also requested that the court stop Thaksin from committing actions that might undermine the constitutional monarchy by influencing the Pheu Thai Party.

Mr Teerayut outlined six key events to back his allegation against the Pheu Thai patriarch.

They covered Thaksin’s extended stay at the Police General Hospital (PGH), the government’s plan to negotiate with Cambodia over territorial claims and the Pheu Thai’s charter rewrite bid. They all involved Thaksin pulling the ruling party’s strings, according to Mr Teerayut.

The government policy statement delivered to parliament by PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, his daughter, also reflected Thaksin’s vision outlined at a forum on Aug 22.

A gathering of core coalition party figures at his Bangkok home to find a prime ministerial candidate after Srettha Thavisin was removed from office on Aug 14, and the coalition expulsion of a faction led by Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, were examples of the influence exerted over Pheu Thai, the petitioner alleged.

And should Mr Teerayut’s claim stick, the case is shaping up to be more than just a legal battle, according to observers. It will be a fight for survival for the party and its leader, Ms Paetongtarn, who has had a more difficult start as premier than most of her predecessors.

Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, told the Bangkok Post that the court’s action clearly demonstrates court president Nakharin Mektrairat’s commitment to supporting public scrutiny of politicians and political parties.

Mr Teerayut initially submitted the complaint with the OAG on Sept 24, asking it to investigate and forward the case to the Constitutional Court for a ruling. He went on to file the complaint directly with the court after the OAG failed to act on his request within 15 days.

According to Mr Thanaporn, the court’s request for information from the OAG can be seen as a signal that the court might step in and consider the petition itself if the OAG fails to act.

Of the six events listed by Mr Teerayut, the one surrounding Thaksin’s extended stay at the PGH can put Thaksin in a particularly tight spot, considering the court’s rulings regarding actions that undermine the constitutional monarchy, said the analyst.

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) was the first independent agency to look into the matter and submitted its damning findings to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to consider further action.

The NHRC concluded that the Department of Corrections (DoC) gave privileged treatment to Thaksin, and both the DoC and the PGH helped Thaksin serve all his jail time in comfort in the PGH instead of a prison cell or in the DoC’s hospital.

Mr Thanaporn expressed scepticism about the Pheu Thai legal team’s ability to counter the allegations, saying the party rarely won cases brought before the Constitutional Court and other independent agencies.

According to the analyst, Thaksin’s only legal victory was in 2001 when the Constitutional Court ruled 8:7 in his favour to clear him of an asset concealment charge. He narrowly escaped a political ban and removal from office.

The NACC had charged Thaksin with failing to declare the transfer of shares worth more than 600 million baht to his driver, gardeners and close associates, although he did declare ownership of a 60-billion-baht stake in Shin Corporation.

“It is the only time he won a case. He can’t rely on the party’s legal team and will need to employ similar tactics [as he did in the asset concealment case] to get himself out of this situation, especially since he coined the phrase, ‘politics is the art of mystery’,” said Mr Thanaporn.

However, Pheu Thai heavyweight Chousak Sirinil said earlier that the accusation against Thaksin and the party lacked sufficient grounds to be considered actions aimed at undermining the constitutional monarchy.

Mr Chousak, who is the ruling party’s legal adviser, argued that the petitioner tried to draw a comparison between Pheu Thai’s actions and those that led to the court’s ruling against the MFP.

He insisted that the two cases were entirely different.

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Karthik Shenoy joins Bank of Singapore in transformation push | FinanceAsia

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Karthik Shenoy joined Bank of Singapore as head of platforms and transformation, chief operating office, last month.

Shenoy (pictured) reports to Bank of Singapore’s global chief operating officer Jacky Ang, and has been tasked with driving the implementation of the bank’s three year strategic plan to enhance its internal infrastructure and platforms.

Shenoy has over two decades of experience in the financial services industry, and has held senior positions in both business and technology domains. Prior to joining Bank of Singapore, Shenoy worked at Credit Suisse (now part of UBS) where he was most recently its global head of financing technology and head of Asia Pacific (Apac) wealth technology. Before that, he was head of Apac banking & lending platform and head of Apac markets platform.

He has experience across markets including Singapore, Tokyo, and Hong Kong, and has been involved in conceptualising, designing and delivering complex applications and platforms involving pricing, trade lifecycle, risk, and portfolio management domains, according to a media release.  

Ang commented: “Karthik’s exceptional combination of business acumen and technology expertise positions him well to drive the implementation of our three-year strategic plan in enhancing our infrastructure and platforms. His ability to collaborate well will also be instrumental in developing intricate client and front-office applications, which are critical deliverables of our three-year strategic plan.”

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Citi boosts Asia markets team with two hires from JP Morgan | FinanceAsia

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Citi is adding to its Asia markets team with two appointments from JP Morgan who are both set to start at Citi in December. 

Anand Goyal is set to join Citi’s FX team as head of FX institutional sales for Japan, Asia North & Australia and Asia South clusters. Based in Singapore, Goyal (pictured right) will report to Cécile Gambardella, head of sales for markets for Japan, Asia North and Australia clusters and Sam Hewson, global head of FX sales.

Goyal was previously head of macro FX (MacroX) and real money sales for Asia Pacific (Apac) at JP Morgan, where he began his career over 20 years ago, according to his LinkedIn profile. 

In addition, Hooi Wan Ng will join Citi as head of markets for Malaysia. Ng (pictured left) will report to Sue Lee, head of markets for the Asia South cluster and Vikram Singh, Citi country officer and banking head for Malaysia. She was most recently head of local corporate sales and private side sales at JP Morgan, where she has served since 2011.

The upcoming move follows the appointment of Ngo Hong Minh as head of markets and country treasurer for Vietnam who joined Citi in December 2023 from JP Morgan.

Commenting on Goyal’s appointment, Hong Kong-based Gambardella said, “As Apac’s leading markets and FX franchise, we have opportunities for growth across our network. With his extensive experience and deep understanding of regional market trends, we are well positioned to further strengthen and grow our client relationships under Anand’s leadership.”

Commenting on Ng’s appointment, Singh said: “Malaysia is a key market for Citi globally, where we are seeing strong growth across our interconnected businesses. Malaysia is at the forefront of investments, both foreign and domestic, as it continues to benefit from supply chain shifts. I’m confident under Hooi Wan’s leadership Citi’s growth momentum will continue.”

Citi’s Q3 2024 results 

 

Meanwhile, on October 15, Citigroup revealed that its net profit was $3.2 billion in the third quarter 2024, compared to net profit of $3.5 billion in Q3 2023. 

The bank said this was driven by the higher cost of credit, which was  partially offset by the higher revenues and the lower expenses.

Citigroup revenues of $20.3 billion in Q3, an increase of1%, on a reported basis. Excluding divestiture-related impacts, primarily consisting of the approximately $400 million gain from the sale of the Taiwan consumer banking business in the prior-year period, revenues were up 3%. This increase in revenues was driven by growth across all businesses.

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Xiaomi is said to have designed its own 3nm chip – Asia Times

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Xiaomi Inc, a Beijing-based smartphone maker, is said to have “taped out” its first 3 nanometer system-on-chip ( SoC ) processor, which is to be mass produced in the first half of 2025.

Tapeout is a term used in the semiconductor industry to describe the long-awaited point in the development operation when the final design files are kept in storage and sent for processing. It was used in the days of reel-to-reel electrical tape.

Tang Jianguo, the chief economist of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology, made the disclosure of the data on Xiaomi’s 3nm chip on Beijing Satellite TV on October 20. &nbsp,

Xiaomi’s success in chip design would be a historic milestone for China, according to Chinese media, as it would be the first 3nm device to be created by a Chinese company if the reports were accurate.

There has been no information regarding the 3nm chipset’s central processing unit ( CPU) cluster, graphic processing unit ( GPU) or architecture. &nbsp,

In an article published on Monday, a technology columnist using the pseudonym” Uncle Biao” claims that it is likely that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co ( TSMC) will manufacture the new 3nm chip in conjunction with Xiaomi and Taiwan’s MediaTek. &nbsp,

Wccftech.com, a United States-based IT tool site, says it is possible that Xiaomi may become sanctioned by the United States due to its discovery in designing 3nm cards. &nbsp,

According to the article, if Xiaomi has successfully achieved the tapeout reputation for its 3nm soc, it means that another Chinese companies, including Huawei Technologies, who has been sanctioned, can also use this processor in their products. &nbsp,

Wccftech.com reported in August that Xiaomi may release a system-on-chip computer in the first quarter of 2025, the device to be mass produced via TSMC’s N4P method, which can enhance a chip’s performance, power efficiency and transistor density. &nbsp,

US trade handles

Chinese companies have been prohibited from using the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS ) since August 15, 2022, because it has blocked access to the country’s electronic computer-aided design (ECAD ) software, which is used by the military and aerospace defense industries for designing complex integrated circuits in a variety of applications.

Chinese analysts said at that time that the new US trade handles of electronic design automation (EDA) software would not have an immediate impact on China, which did not design 3nm chips. 

In a report released in October 2022, Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS), stated that one of the four choke points being used to stifle the Chinese chip design industry is America’s dominance of the EDA software market. &nbsp,

Other obstacles included the United States ‘ export ban on high-end AI chips, chip-making tools, and related parts to China. &nbsp,

The three leading players in the semiconductor EDA industry are Mentor Graphics, Cadence Design Systems, and Synopsys. Despite the fact that Mentor is a division of Siemens in Europe, all three have their headquarters in the US and employ the majority of their employees there. &nbsp,

A 10-year excursion

How Xiaomi gained admittance to American EDA program is a mystery. But most critics believe that the company’s chip-design systems primarily came from MediaTek. &nbsp,

In November 2014, Pinecore, a fabless chipmaker in which Xiaomi is reported to have a 51 % stake and Leadcore Technology a 49 % stake, said it decided to acquire a chip-making package called SDR1860 from Leadcore for 103 million yuan ( US$ 14.5 million ). Leadcore is a cooperative venture between MediaTek and China’s Datang Telecom Technology. &nbsp,

In 2017, Xiaomi launched its first laptop device called S1, which is an octa-core SoC. It was fabricated on TSMC’s 28nm high-performance compact plus ( 28HPC ) technology, which features high performance and low power advantages. Nevertheless, the S1 device was later found to have a major burning problem.

Xiaomi attempted to introduce a new S2 chipset in 2020, but the tape-out approach was unsuccessful and the device was unable to be used.

Xiaomi’s founder and CEO Lei Jun once said that chip design is a high-risk activity that you end up costing nothing after a lot of money. &nbsp, &nbsp,

A journalist from Yunnan, China, claims in an article published in August this year that it is important for Xiaomi to create its own chips because Qualcomm’s Chipset processors are becoming more expensive. He says the start of a fresh SoC next month is only one of Xiaomi’s techniques to try to reach self-sufficiency. &nbsp,

With a global market share of 39 %, MediaTek maintained its position as the top laptop computer manufacturer in the first quarter of this year. It shipped 1.14 billion bits, up 17 % year-on-year, during the time, according to Canalys, a global technology industry analyst. &nbsp,

Xiaomi, Samsung, and OPPO were the top three contributors, representing 23 %, 20 %, and 17 % of MediaTek’s smartphone processor shipments, respectively.

For comparison, Qualcomm’s smartphone processor shipments grew by 11 % to reach 75 million units in the first quarter, with 46 % of the shipments coming from Samsung and Xiaomi. &nbsp,

Read more: US examines whether TSMC actually cut relations with Huawei.

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Investors welcome China’s rate cuts but want fiscal catalyst – Asia Times

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One of the most drastic interventions by the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) in recent years is China’s slashing of its key lending rates on Monday. &nbsp,

The one-year loan prime rate ( LPR ) was reduced by 25 basis points to 3.1 %, and the five-year LPR, widely used as the benchmark for mortgages, fell by a similar margin to 3.6 %. &nbsp,

For global investors, this news could n’t come at a better time. The second-largest economy in the world has experienced slow growth, mostly as a result of a combination of negative pressures, deflationary pressures, and weak consumer demand.

These rate reduces underscore the necessity of Chinese politicians ‘ efforts to revive a growth trend that has been sluggish for decades. &nbsp,

For traders, this is a pleasant walk. Lower borrowing costs should help businesses and households, bringing in new liquidity and regaining the economic speed that has been severely lacking. &nbsp,

However, while monetary easing will undoubtedly be a powerful lever, it’s increasingly clear that a more potent fiscal response – especially targeting households – will be the key to achieving the country’s year-end target of 5 % GDP growth.

Ripple result

When China’s central bank makes a decisive move to boost its economy, international markets typically sigh a collective sigh of relief. &nbsp,

Many global investors have been watching China’s financial challenges with growing suspicion, and the PBOC’s price reductions may include a rippling effect, boosting optimism among them. &nbsp,

Lower interest rates are anticipated to encourage customer saving and investment in vital businesses, creating a more positive environment for Chinese stocks and bonds.

These actions may also ease worries about China’s troubled property market, which is a major boon for the world economy. &nbsp,

A more affordable payment climate could assist property developers in need and, in turn, stabilize a market that accounts for almost 30 % of China’s GDP. If the new PBOC cuts manage to recover some trust in this field, it could have a significant impact on all major financial markets, starting from commodities to equities.

Moreover, with China being the largest consumer of raw materials and an engine of global demand, a treatment in its property market may possibly result to a broad-based protest in goods, boosting industry worldwide.

Good but inadequate?

However, investors are aware that monetary policy alone may only bring about positive outcomes despite the quick praise these cuts will bring. &nbsp,

Lower interest rates will ease the economic burden on businesses and individuals, but they do little to tackle the deeper structural issues that China faces because they are multidimensional.

Consumer confidence in China is also small, hurt by the continuous property slump and worries about deflation. &nbsp,

Companies, too, have been anxious to ramp up purchase, given the weak demand. This implies that despite the advantages of monetary easing, lower rates may not produce the solid consumption or investment required to ignite a meaningful recovery.

The difficulty lies in the fact that many of the problems that are stifling China’s market are demand-side in nature. &nbsp,

It’s not that consumers and businesses ca n’t borrow – it’s that they’re hesitant to spend and invest. &nbsp,

Fiscal policy must be complemented by striking fiscal measures designed to stimulate consumption and investment in order for China’s growth engine to really revive it.

A significant fiscal response that gives households the cash they need is what China desperately needs right then. &nbsp,

A massive, targeted fiscal item, whether through tax breaks, subsidies or direct cash transfers, did go a long way toward reigniting need.

Additionally, a fiscal push intended to boost household incomes may help to offset the problem of rising living costs and stagnant wages, which have been significant factors in the diminished consumer sentiment. &nbsp,

Households are more likely to invest, especially on enclosure, with more disposable income, which would help relieve pressures on the property field.

China may help create a much stronger recovery, one that will last a long time, by combining fiscal stimulus with the most recent wave of economic easing. &nbsp,

Beijing may increase its chances of meeting its 5 % GDP growth target for 2024 by doing so, as well as comfort the world’s confidence that it has the resources and the will to combat its economic downturn.

deVere Group was founded by Nigel Green as its CEO.

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The Prabowo era is born in Indonesia – Asia Times

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JAKARTA – Prabowo Subianto has been inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh leader, marking the end of both cheerful President Joko Widodo’s ten years in office and Prabowo’s personal multi-decade search for the best work.

In his inaugural address to Indonesia’s parliament, Prabowo urged lawmakers and the country to be courageous in the face of difficulties and prioritize the needs of the Indian people over those of their own interests, including their own personal interests.

But, what can we truly expect for the next five times? On the campaign trail, Prabowo, when Widodo’s bitter enemy, vowed to be a devout heirs to his counterpart’s policies.

However, some people believe that the renowned former common will have his own plan on a number of fronts. A few key themes emerged in his inaugural address and afterwards cabinet picks, including the need for a strong international policy, an economics lean, a poverty-relief focus, and a potential shift to authoritarian rule.

European legislation

” In facing the global world, Indonesia chooses a free and effective way, non-aligned”, declared Prabowo, speaking to congress. ” So, we want to be associates with all nations, but we have principles, especially anti-colonialism because we have experienced conquest”.

In light of this, he continued to appoint Indonesia’s support for Arab independence, which the parliament greeted with loud cheers.

Indonesia’s theory of non-alignment paired loosely with a Fourth Worldist arrangement is regular fare, suggesting consistency with Widodo, and, indeed, the plans that have guided Indonesia since 1998. However, there are also indications that Prabowo may flame his own road.

Widodo generally let the foreign ministry run its own for ten years, leaving little interest in foreign affairs aside from their economic impact. Jokowi, however, takes a little closer individual interest and will probably seem to perform an active part on the world stage.

This is reflected in the recently appointed foreign secretary, Sugiono, a somewhat little-known secretary to Prabowo. In choosing Sugiono, Prabowo has broken with the post-1998 law of appointing a job minister to mind the government.

Prabowo appears to want a foreign minister with few, if any, ties to the strong government civil service.

Jokowi has urged people to play the role of an honest seller in international issues in his speeches. Most notably, at the Shangri La Dialogue in 2023, he surprised many with a proposed peace prepare for the Russia-Ukraine battle.

Defense geopolitics may also increase. In his capacity as Indonesia’s defence minister from 2019 to 2024, Prabowo oversaw the expansion of Garuda Shield drills with the US and the filing of a new military assistance deal with Australia.

Considerably, his views of the Quad and AUKUS, both seen as aimed at counterbalancing China in the Indo-Pacific, are considerably more comfortable than many in the Indonesian creation.

However, this should n’t be taken as Prabowo leaning toward the US and its allies in its purest form. However, Prabowo’s first overseas visit after his election this year was to China, a representation of both China’s need to judge Indonesia and Indonesia’s needed for Chinese funding to grow its business. His China trip was finally balanced out by subsequent trips to Malaysia and Japan.

Revisionist is anticipated to adopt a careful position on the Israel-Palestine debate. Unlike some in Indonesia, he declined to condemn techniques like Australia’s shift of its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

The Indonesian army has long had silent ties with Israeli rivals, giving the military a more amiable outlook on the nation than many in the foreign government. Public opinion may also give Prabowo a limited amount of room to maneuver.

Governmental development

Are we conscious that Indonesians also suffer from excessive hunger? In his annual conversation, Prabowoo asked the legislature. Prabowo made the main component of his plan to be fighting poverty and its effects.

His name promises in this case include free school meals for children and diet assistance for pregnant women. Additionally, he has pledged to construct three million fresh homes.

Some investors and economists are concerned about the potential value of these programs. There have been suggestions that the school meals program alone could end up costing some 400 trillion rupiah ($ 25.8 billion ) annually.

And according to comments made by various figures in the Prabowo camp, his government would be willing to allow the national debt to rise from 39 % to 50 % right now.

But, Prabowo has moved to try and alleviate those worries. Most notable is the request to keep Indonesia’s symbolic finance secretary, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who excelled under Widodo and his succeeding President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in her position.

Her reinstatement defied expectations that Prabowo may fire her because, according to reports, the two were at odds with one another over the defence budget.

But, if tensions between Prabowo and Sri Mulyani reappear, it is questionable how they will be handled. Widodo apparently played a vital role in persuading Prabowo to maintain her on. But as Widodo’s control wanes, but does Prabowo’s patience with a strong financing minister with a penchant for fiscal prudence.

Importantly, Prabowo’s brother – Thomas Djiwandono – is also staying on as assistant finance minister, a position he was appointed to in July 2024 to help ease the transition to Prabowo’s state. This ostensibly suggests that Prabowo may ultimately want his devoted associate in the finance department.

However, making room for extra saving on social programs may require cuts elsewhere. There have already been indications that Widodo may reduce his name infrastructure spending. And the government’s willingness to commit money to Widodo’s last megaproject, the new investment Nusantara, which is being constructed from scratch in Borneo, is a question mark.

Autarky and isolationism

” Brothers and sisters, I have made the declaration that Indonesia has eat a lot of food within the shortest amount of time. We ca n’t rely on external food sources. In a crisis, in a crucial position no one will help their items for us to buy”, Prabowo told congress.

” We also have to be self-sufficient in power. In a state of tension, in a state of possible battle everyday, we have to be prepared for the worst possible outcome”, he added.

Throughout the course of Prabowo’s presidential campaign, self-sufficiency in food and fuel were important elements. Prabowo’s military service has given him a different perspective on the world than Widodo, who had an entrepreneurial background as a furniture supplier and was more favorable to the development of global trade.

Jokowi has set incredibly ambitious goals, nevertheless with serious query marks about their achievability. In his statement, he suggested Indonesia could obtain food self-sufficiency in 4-5 times. Additionally, Indonesia has plans to increase its percentage of biodiesel blended with regular fuel from 35 % to 50 % or even 60 %.

However, critical questions have been raised about the viability of these objectives. Prabowo’s push for meals property projects as defense minister was somewhat unsuccessful. In Papua, more mega-projects are undergoing intense attention in order to achieve these objectives.

Green goals may suffer as a result of the emphasis on energy independence. As sources of energy self-sufficiency, Prabowo cited volcanic, diesel and fuel. While the first has low emissions, the second may have high emissions if combined with logging to produce biodiesel fuel like sugar or hand oil. Coal, of training, is anything but natural.

Zulkifli Hasan, who has been appointed the recently appointed Coordinating Minister for Food, will be in charge of all of this. As a close social supporter of Jokowi who displayed protectionist impulses as trade minister, the pick suits Prabowo’s interests. Some may be concerned about Hasan’s uneven performance in his past post, despite the fact that it appears to be central to implementation.

However, the new secretary of trade, past civil servant Budi Santoso, is said to be linked to a certain prominent businessman with huge coal and large biodiesel interests.

It’s unknown whether these protectionist instincts will eventually manifest in other sectors of the economy. Airlangga Hartarto, the coordinator of Minister for Economic Affairs, will continue in his current capacity and may serve as a potential counterweight.

Nickel and downstreaming

” We must all have commodities downstream.” In his speech, Prabowo said that the increased economic value of all those goods must help ensure that our people can enjoy a high standard of living.

In Indonesia, the heart of “downstreaming” is the nickel industry. Indonesia is the world’s top nickel producer thanks to a combination of export bans, tax breaks, and Chinese investment. Additionally, efforts are being made and plans to incorporate this into the production of batteries and electric vehicles.

However, Luhut Panjaitan, the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment ( CMA ) under Widodo, has left with him. Without direction, the policy may change, but Luhut’s centrality depended more on his personal status than his title.

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia, who is now taking the lead in the role he was given in the Widodo administration’s final months, is now the focal point. Although some have questioned how he allegedly finished his PhD dissertation on the nickel industry in just under two years while serving as minister, a title he recently obtained was recently published under his name.

Despite the PhD’s dubious origins, it could provide some indication of Bahlil’s priorities. Four flagged issues include overreliance on foreign workers, lack of opportunities for local entrepreneurs, a paucity of revenue-sharing with local governments and a lack of post-mining diversification plans.

Authoritarianism

” In the midst of such great ideals and dreams, we need an atmosphere of togetherness, unity, collaboration, not prolonged bickering”, declared Prabowo. Let us be aware that our democracy must be one that is unique to Indonesia, he continued.

While the comments may seem innocuous, they’ll put a shiver down Prabowo’s critics ‘ spines. In the past, Prabowo has criticized democracy in particular as a difficult habit to break, like smoking. He has suggested removing direct elections for president and regional leaders.

The key concept here is musyawarah, which broadly means deliberation. It is often invoked to argue Indonesia’s culture means its politics must be centered on consensus-building and not oppositional. In practice, this typically refers to a system that makes little room for criticism and dissention.

Every party that has been elected to the national parliament, aside from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle ( PDI-P), is now a part of Prabowo’s governing coalition. Despite attempts to organize regional elections using nomination thresholds, the idea was pulled out due to a pending Constitutional Court ruling.

This, plus Prabowo’s tendency to blame protests on foreign agitation, has left many worried about the space for opposition under the new government.

Cabinet appointments here provide little reassurance. Attorney General ST Burhanuddin and Minister of Home Affairs Tito Karniavan, who served during Widodo’s second term when the former president increasingly used legal institutions for political purposes, will continue in their positions.

In addition, Prabowo is close to new Attorney General Supratman Andi Agtas and new State Intelligence Agency head Muhamad Herindra. New Minister of Communication and Digital Meutya Hafid, a former journalist, is a potential bright spot.

Looking ahead to Prabowo’s new era, many anticipate challenges to media freedoms, tough crackdowns on any protests, and possible changes to election rules. Constitutional changes to repeal or modify liberalizing amendments introduced post-1998, measures that effectively gave birth to Indonesia’s modern democracy, are also not inconceivable considering Prabowo’s known views.

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Now’s not the time to short the yuan – Asia Times

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As the” Trump business” returns to create fear of political upheaval great once, global hedge funds are racing to little China’s yuan money.

They are betting that Trump’s designed combination of tax and business measures will boost local rise if elected, and that China may seek to become more dynamic.

However, betting on a weaker yuan could prove to be a lot of a mistake if the last several decades of the Xi Jinping age are any link.

Let’s begin with the Trump estimate. Obviously, the November 5 US vote is a true toss-up. One time, polls suggest Kamala Harris ‘ Democrats may emerge. The second, hp emerges to telephone a Trump 2.0 White House is coming.

This year, the speed seems to be on Trump’s part. In the US$ 300 billion dollar options business, hedge funds are placing higher stakes on a weaker renminbi. Yuan uncertainty is currently at its highest level since the middle of 2022.

However, it seems as though Trump’s 2017-2021 phrase will be forgotten due to fears that he might prefer a stronger dollar. Trump was unwaveringly in favor of a lower US transfer rate to benefit American companies and stifle China.

It’s also worth remembering Trump’s abuse on the US Federal Reserve. Trump was angry that his chosen Fed chair, Jerome Powell, continued father Janet Yellen’s price hikes. He then browbeat Powell into cutting rates, adding stimulus in 2019 that the economy did n’t need.

On top of the Fed’s broken trust, the US federal debt soared under Trump and present President Joe Biden, then topping$ 35 trillion.

Include social fragmentation to the picture until January 20, 2025, when the next management will take office. Even if Trump loses, no significant journalist thinks he will go away quietly.

One of the causes of Fitch Ratings ‘ cancellation of its AAA standing on US bill, joining Standard & Poor’s, was the fallout from the uprising on January 6, 2021, which Trump fomented. The next rating agency to assess America AAA is now Moody’s Investors Service, the source of the current query.

The Beijing component of this riddle is more crucial, though. There are at least four causes why Beijing is unlikely to help the yuan to fall very little.

One, a falling yuan may make payment on onshore bill more difficult for very obliged organizations like home builders. That would boost proxy risks in Asia’s biggest market. The last thing Xi wants is to see# ChinaEvergrande trending once more in the internet.

Two, the economic easing needed to sustain the yuan’s declines — especially with the Fed cutting rates, also— could harm Xi’s deleveraging efforts. Xi’s interior group has made significant strides over the past few years in eradicating financial abuse.

This explains why Xi and Premier Li Qiang have been reluctant to permit the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) to cut rates more forcefully, despite China Inc.’s reputation for deflationary pressures.

Three, increasing the yuan’s global usage is probably Xi’s biggest economic transformation achievement since 2012. In&nbsp, 2016, China&nbsp, won a place for the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s” special&nbsp, drawing&nbsp, right” box, joining the dollar, yen, euro and pound.

Since next, the stock’s apply in business and banking has soared. Increased easing then may dent trust in the yuan, slowing its headway toward reserve-currency position.

Fourth, it may produce China a more contentious and important issue during a distinctly divisive US election. Trump’s Republicans and Democrats who are close to Harris concur that they must be strong with Beijing.

Beijing’s claims that it is manipulating the renminbi lower could stoke bipartisan support in Washington. especially in light of the Trump administration’s plan to impose 60 % taxes on all products made in China.

” As well as levies, the badge of ‘ money manipulator’ may be a second red flag for an Eastern economy”, said Robert Carnell, Asia-region head of research at ING Bank.

A weaker renminbi would be used by Xi to sign a sense of anxiety and anguish. Certainly the stories Xi wants international investors to be thinking about as the year 2025 draws near.

Otherwise, Xi and Li have been ratcheting up the signal without triggering sounds of 2015, 2008 and additional past incidents of large pro-growth “bazooka” storms.

Earlier this month, Beijing cut borrowing costs, slashed businesses ‘ supply need numbers, reduced mortgage costs and unveiled market-support resources to put a floor under share costs. Bolder fiscal stimulus steps are being mulled, too.

On Thursday ( October 17 ), Team Xi raised the loan quota for unfinished housing projects to 4 trillion yuan ($ 562 billion ), nearly double the previous amount.

The bump was less than markets wanted, as evidenced by Chinese stocks falling into” correction” territory this week. The&nbsp, CSI 300 Index&nbsp, ended Tuesday down 1.1 %, bringing its declines since an October 8 high to roughly 11 %.

The bigger issue, of course, is repairing the balance sheets of giant property developers.

” They’re still trying to talk the talk, with more noise about stabilizing the property market”, said Stephen Innes, an economist at SPI Asset Management.”

As Thursday’s housing moves were” rolled on, it was clear: traders were not thrilled,” Innes said”. Let’s be honest, though – China’s property mess is n’t something that can be patched up with a few speeches and half-baked measures.”

According to Morgan Stanley economist Robin Xing, “resolving the debt issue is a crucial step in stopping a key deflationary downward spiral,” while adding that direct demand stimulus is equally crucial.

Team Xi has made several commitments over the past few years to develop a method to remove toxic assets from property developers ‘ balance sheets.

Beijing has in fact demonstrated what is required to turn things around: a bold plan to boost the finances of high-quality developers, encouraging mergers and acquisitions, promoting property investment so that more people no longer consider real estate as their only option, and establishing social safety nets to encourage households to spend more and save less.

Indeed, over the past few decades, there have been numerous crises from which to draw lessons. They include Japan’s efforts to remove toxic loans from banks ‘ balance sheets in the early 2000s, as well as the US’s use of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, to deal with troubled assets after 2008.

More fundamentally, Xi’s reform team must step up efforts to recalibrate growth engines away from exports toward innovation and high-niche industries.

Investors should be reassured that the brutal crackdowns on tech companies have ended in 2020. China also needs to shed its adversity toward the fundamental level of economic transparency that the world’s funds demand.

But as Xi and Li understand, a weaker yuan wo n’t bring about any of these big-picture reforms. It might give China a little more time to achieve its 5 % growth goal this year, but at a cost that Chinese leaders appear unwilling to pay.

There are myriad other reasons why, in the US, one reason is to believe that the dollar’s outlook will be more red ink than black.

One of the issues with the US national debt, which is now twice the size of China’s annual gross domestic product, is that it is two times that large. However, there are a good chance that Trump will backtrack on some of the financial planning moves he made during the first, only to have them halted by economic advisers in a second term.

One was Trump considering canceling large sums of the US owed to Beijing in order to punish Xi’s economy in the midst of trade negotiations. These considerations were hardly ever out of the blue.

In May 2016, six months before he was first elected, &nbsp, Trump, a serial bankruptcy offender as a businessman, floated reneging on US debt in a&nbsp, CNBC&nbsp, interview.

” I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” &nbsp, Trump&nbsp, said”. And if the economy was good, it was good. So therefore, you ca n’t lose.”

Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi spoke for many when he called the idea of reneging on US debt” complete craziness” that” would be financial Armageddon.”

Trump&nbsp, 1.0 considered a dollar-to-yuan devaluation of the kind that Argentina or Vietnam might employ. In April, for example, Politico&nbsp, reported that Trump 2.0’s inner circle is” actively debating” an Argentina-like pivot at the behest of advisors like&nbsp, Robert&nbsp, Lighthizer, Trump’s former international trade representative.

Yet, instead of” America first,” such a detour might do more to advantage China in the longer run. Buenos Aires would be operating a Group of Seven economy if devaluation were a method for prosperity. Turkey and Zimbabwe would be booming. As Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia would be giving China a run for its money.

To China’s advantage, the US trying this gambit would increase inflationary pressures and expose the dollar’s status as a reserve currency.

Investors generally believe that the policies they are proposing to promote US reindustrialization, such as steep tariffs on goods imported, will tend to result in dollar strength in comparison to other currencies, according to a note from Global Analysts.

But, they added, the” likely consequences of this disconnect include a potential conflict between the White House and Fed, and a diplomatic drive to&nbsp, weaken the US dollar, possibly involving a new version of the 1985 &nbsp, Plaza&nbsp, Accord.”

Trying such a gambit in 2024 would be extraordinarily destabilizing. The odds are very low that Xi would choose to pursue it. China recalls how Japan’s acceptance of a stronger yen ravaged its economy for decades to come, aside from the Communist Party’s aversion to being pushed around.

Even so, hedge funds that are betting on a weaker yuan in the months ahead might be ignoring the bigger picture of the Xi era.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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US doubles down on Patriot to hold China, Russia at bay – Asia Times

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The US Army has halted plans to replace its Patriot missile system, opting to enhance the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement ( PAC-3 MSE ) interceptor instead.

Despite being successful in battling Russian fast missiles, the PAC-3 MSE also faces challenges in retaliation for superior weapon threats and absorption attacks. The decision, announced during the Association of the US Army’s quarterly meeting, was taken due to the alternative agency’s high prices, Defense News reported.

The Integrated Air and Missile Defense ( IAMD) system, which includes the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor ( LTAMDS ) and the Integrated Battle Command System, will continue to evolve, according to the report.

It will concentrate on improving the PAC-3 MSE to withstand future challenges, including the anticipated fast and agile nuclear weapons by 2040.

According to Defense News, the US Army is considering ensuring greater integration between the Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Systems in order to improve combat space management. This will allow the use of both interceptors in the face of superior threats.

The Missile Defense Agency ( MDA ) has already carried out some integration work in the Indo-Pacific theater, demonstrating the potential advantages of this strategy.

The Patriot weapon has a combined fight record in Ukraine, showing usefulness against Russian fast missiles&nbsp, while also exhibiting risks.

For example, The New York Times reported that six Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were properly intercepted over Kiev by Ukrainian-operated Patriot weapon air defense systems in May 2023.

That victory, noted by&nbsp, Peter Mitchell in a May 2023 Modern War Institute article, perhaps plant from&nbsp, the Kinzhal’s limits. For sustained high-speed flexibility, Mitchell claims that the Kinzhal uses a solid-fuel jet engine, but the Kinzhal uses scramjet or different sophisticated propulsion systems.

Mitchell claims that the design raises questions about its ability to maintain fast speeds throughout its journey, especially during the terminal phase, making it prone to intercept.

He mentions that professional analysis suggests Kinzhal lacks the flexibility and agility needed for hypersonic weapons, referring to it as a “giant garden arrow” with explosives rather than a powerful weapon.

However, Moscow Times, an independent Russian media outlet, reported this month that Russia had targeted and struck two US-made Patriot missile launchers, a control station and a radar integral to the system with an Iskander ballistic missile in the central Dnipropetrovsk region, specifically in Pavlohrad, Ukraine.

In an article this month for Russian state media outlet TASS, Viktor Bodrov discusses how improvements in Russia’s reconnaissance-strike complex in identifying and dismantling these air defense systems, as well as Ukraine’s propensity to place them close to the front line to conceal its troops, may have led to their destruction.

The Patriot PAC-3 MSE may not be adequate defense against a lot of missiles in a saturation attack, despite having hit-to-kill capability to precisely destroy incoming missiles. Further, the Patriot PAC-3’s high cost of US$ 3.7 million per interceptor and extended production period of nearly 20 months may hinder its ability to perform in this scenario.

Jonathan Panter mentions in a Council on Foreign Relations ( CFR ) article this month that despite Israel’s support of close military allies like the US and its neutralization of Iran’s direct missile attacks in April and October 2024, the increasing sophistication and frequency of attacks may put strain on these defenses.

He makes the point that the US faces potential security conflicts because it continues to support Israel, which could have an impact on its strategic goals in other countries.

According to the Associated Press ( AP ), the US Army’s air defense forces are under strain from US Patriot missile donations to Ukraine and the recent decision to send a THAAD missile battery to Israel, which has caused delays in updating its missile systems.

These actions, according to AP, add to the strain of troop deployments because the US Army tries to ensure that troops in the continental US have enough time to rest and train. Recurrent deployments, according to the report, also make it challenging to transport these systems into depots where they can be upgraded.

In the Indo-Pacific region, where China has more missiles and technological advancements than either Russia or Iran, those issues may become even more pressing.

China operates the DF-21D” carrier killer” medium-range, road-mobile anti-ship ballistic missile, designed to target ships at sea with a range of 1, 450 to 1, 550 kilometers and an accuracy of 20 meters Circular Error Probable ( CEP ).

Due to its maneuverable warhead and precision, it is a significant threat to naval assets, particularly aircraft carriers, underscoring China’s advancing anti-access/area denial ( A2/AD ) capabilities.

Apart from the DF-21D, China also has the DF-26″ Guam killer” intermediate-range ballistic missile ( IRBM ) with a range of 4, 000 kilometers. The missile has a range of conventional and nuclear warheads, and its modular design makes it simple to swap out components quickly. As with the DF-21D, the DF-26B variant has anti-ship capability.

In conjunction with missile attacks, China may choose to use weaknesses in the&nbsp, US kill chains, and launch attacks from multiple domains such as space, cyber, and the electromagnetic spectrum in conjunction with missile attacks to defeat US missile defenses, according to Asia Times ‘ report from September 2024.

Integrating various missile defense systems, such as Patriot and THAAD, might be challenging. In August 2023, Asia Times pointed out that disjointed systems might not effectively counter an enemy in a saturation attack&nbsp, using various advanced weapons, such as drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons.

Given the limitations of US missile defense systems, the US and its allies may need to adopt a different deterrence strategy, focusing on  the ability to respond to an adversary.

In line with that, Melanie Sisson asserts in a May 2022 Brookings article that the US should adopt a deterrence by punishment approach to stop China from using force against Taiwan.

Sisson points out that deterrence by denial, which aims to convince China it would lose a military conflict, is deemed costly and risky, potentially leading to immediate war with a nuclear-armed adversary.

In contrast, she says deterrence by punishment seeks to make China’s costs of aggression prohibitively high, leveraging economic sanctions, diplomatic measures and military support for Taiwan. According to her, the latter approach is more pragmatic, flexible and less likely to escalate into full-scale war.

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Commentary: Anticipating the first moves of Indonesia president-elect Prabowo

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RISK OF Ineffectual Cooperation

There have been rumors about the content of the Cabinet, which are reportedly difficult because it is believed that Prabowo’s will be much bigger than Jokowi’s.

News reports speculate that as many as 44 to 46 ministers ( and ministries ) might take office. Future presidents have now had complete control over the number of Cabinet opportunities thanks to the new Ministerial Law, which was ratified on September 20.

There are also rumors that new ministers and organizations may be established while the already existing ones will be expanded or disbanded.

New coordinating ministers mentioned include one for Society, while fresh ministers may include policy areas like Education, Research and Technology, Environment, Forestry, Creative Economy, Law, and Immigration and Penitentiary, and fresh agencies handle National Communication, Nutrition, and State Revenue.

This expansion might lead to inefficient cooperation in the Cabinet. Interestingly, any new or actually restructured state institution administrative design will require a lot of time.

The new Cabinet wo n’t be able to begin working on the programs Prabowo has promised because of this. A larger Cabinet dils plan emphasis, with officials pursuing their own goals rather than national priorities, at the substantial or technical levels.

However, Prabowo may be able to win political favors and form a more united front in parliament by appointing key political figures to his Cabinet, especially if he offers positions to the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle ( PDI-P). &nbsp,

Before Inauguration Day, we might be aware of the Cabinet’s content, but some fanciful reports mention a number of loyalists who might play significant roles.

The brands include Setyo Hadi, Sugiono, Rachmat Pambudi, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, Anggito Abimanyu, Burhanuddin Abdullah, and present Cabinet members like Pratikno, Azwar Anas, Airlangga Hartarto, Budi G Sadikin, and Erick Thohir.

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