Trump’s return will change Asia’s trade game – Asia Times

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Donald Trump’s election win is creating new financial relationships for Asia, bringing both confusion and tactical opportunities. &nbsp,

Trump’s policies, generally known for prioritizing strong British benefits, are now raising concerns across Eastern markets, where trade, investment and political stability could all be significantly affected. &nbsp,

Trump’s re-election is likely to sign a return to heightened business conflicts, particularly with China. His past leadership set a precedent by imposing severe tariffs on Chinese goods, citing trade imbalances and fears about intellectual property.

The charges, which swelled into a trade war in large numbers, disrupted global supply chains and shook up industries that depend heavily on US-China business. &nbsp,

Trump is anticipated to revise or expand this strategy. On the campaign trail, the businessman-cum-politician frequently said he would impose 60 % tariffs on all Chinese goods and 20 % on all other nations ‘ imports.

If fully implemented, this threats risks China as well as other Asian countries whose supply chains are tied together.

A new trade war, in the eyes of China, would only add to the financial strains it is already experiencing due to a lingering house crisis and a weak domestic economy, which have raised doubts about whether it will be able to meet its 5 % GDP growth target.

The past Trump administration’s taxes pressured China to reassess its business methods, pushing it to get deeper regional partnerships.

China can be expected to look to expand its industry alliances in Asia further, especially within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP ) free trade bloc, if these taxes are increased or more stringent laws are implemented.

The shift could lessen its dependence on US markets, leading to a more cohesive and dependent Asian trade bloc, and easing the impact of revived tariffs on the country’s crucial export market.

Under Trump 2.0, smaller economies in the region that serve as intermediaries between the world’s two largest markets in terms of business are also likely to experience a more difficult setting. &nbsp,

Places like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, which benefited from various benefits from the last trade war’s producing shifts, may experience additional risks if tariffs continue to stifle supply chains.

Additionally, they run the risk of receiving tariff-sensitive items because their products are shipped from a factory elsewhere.

In response to the business tensions, these nations may be able to produce more products, but the confusion of sustained demand may restrict capital outflows, potentially putting off long-term growth and investment.

In addition, Japan and South Korea might have to make proper choices about how to deal with China and America. Both countries are important US allies and depend heavily on imports, especially in high-tech areas like automotives and semiconductors. &nbsp,

With Trump’s renewed effort to reintroduce high-value manufacturing employment to the US, Japanese and South Korean companies that export to the US may experience additional taxes or pressure to move production to fresh American companies.

Both nations will struggle to balance their ties with China, their largest trading partner, and the US, a vital safety alliance, as competition grows to keep the US as a vital business.

Tech issues

In the software industry, Trump’s plans are expected to continue restricting Chinese exposure to US high-end systems, impacting Chinese technology firms like Huawei. &nbsp,

With the result of these limitations, Chinese companies have already been forced to look for alternatives in Asia, which could lead to an increase in modern technology in the region.

China has responded by investing a lot in its domestic semiconductor sector, but the restrictions on sharing technology may cause the differences between nations to grow and make Asian countries choose to take sides in a technical battle. &nbsp,

With more powers putting pressure on nations like Taiwan, which has a strong position in the semiconductor sector, export restrictions or expansions could become more difficult. This could create an environment in which corporate industries can become battlegrounds for power and control.

Under Trump, as traders react to changes in trade relations and international capital flows, the price of the currency areas in Asia may experience significant fluctuations. &nbsp,

On the horizon, Beijing might start implementing capital controls or other measures to maintain the yuan as a result of increased tension.

In addition, emerging Asian currencies may experience uncertainty if taxes or trade restrictions cause their exports to decline, making these nations more prone to cash outflows. Having said that, the current perhaps even present an opportunity for some Asian nations to boost exports as the money rises.

As a result of Trump’s policies, funding flows into Asia may be affected. This could lead to pressure on American businesses to relocate their operations there.

Asia may initially face challenges as a result of this money duplication, especially if Washington implements tax incentives or other measures to encourage more regional growth. &nbsp,

However, if Asia’s economies continue to shift toward consumer-driven models and digital economies, they could attract a new wave of foreign investments that are unrelated to American investments.

Even with shifting US priorities, these markets may still be appealing to international investors because of the favorable demographics and growing middle class in many Asian countries and the spread of digital infrastructure.

While Trump’s second presidency may erect new hurdles and barriers for Asia’s export-geared and investment-dependent economies, the region’s adaptability and integration should allow for resilient responses.

The region could have a foundation to successfully deal with shifting policy directions from a more protectionist administration in Washington thanks to Asia’s extensive trade networks, expanding technological capabilities, and shifting alliances.

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EU-China tit-for-tat tariffs aren’t really a trade war – Asia Times

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Business ties between Slovenia and Europe are going through a rough piece. Beijing is bringing a lawsuit against Brussels at the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) over its decision to impose severe tariffs on Chinese battery electric vehicles ( BEVs ).

Although China-EU tensions are obviously rising, examination of the conflict reveals that the two parties are moving toward a more careful business engagement than a full-fledged trade war.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed on November 4 that it had filed a complaint against the EU for the country’s late October decision to impose tariffs on Chinese BEV imports. The new income levels on Chinese BEVs range between 18 and 45 percent, taking the foundation import tax of 10 % on all cars imported into the EU. Following an anti-subsidy research that was launched in October of last year, the EU made its decision.

China has taken a number of measures against what it perceives as “unfair deal protectionionism” in addition to confronting the Union in front of the WTO. Beijing launched its own anti-subsidy queries earlier this year against EU meat and dairy products.

China imposed tariffs on imported vodka from the Union at the beginning of October and threatened to impose taxes on gasoline-powered vehicles. The Chinese government officially asked automakers to stop mega-investment programs in the EU-member nations two weeks after the EU’s selection.

An impending trade war might be suggested by a cursory examination of the latest Sino-European tit-for-trade situation. However, a closer examination of the evolving geo-economic dynamics and the structure of EU-China’s professional relations reveals that the two countries are undergoing a process of rebalancing their financial engagement.

That is, Brussels is “de-risking, no” decoupling “vis-à-vis Beijing. In crucial industries like pharmaceuticals and alternative technology, the EU heavily relies on Chinese goods and raw materials. Brussels tries to reduce this dependent while upholding positive financial relations. This entails reducing risks in crucial areas while sustaining deal in less vulnerable regions. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Beijing is likely to be receptive to such an relationship. China’s attention is not attracted to scaling the industry debate, as it would lead to a multi-pronged trade war.

The US signed tax increases for a range of imported Chinese goods in September. In October, Canada put additional tariffs on Chinese energy vehicles, metal and metal products and” essential manufacturing sector products.”

It makes more financial sense for Beijing to perform damage control in this geo-economic culture rather than launch new trade war sides in Europe. In this environment, China’s economic defenses against the EU aim to physically target vital industries and EU member states to put strain on Brussels for a resolution.

In light of this situation, China and the Union are more likely to find resolution in the Noel trade dispute. In a 2013 solar panels business dispute, Beijing and Brussels struck a deal to avoid additional taxes.

Beijing and Brussels are moving away from detailed bilateral trade in favor of more granular engagement, according to recent dynamics in the China-EU Noel trade dispute.

The implication of this trend goes beyond institutions, impacting business areas. Chinese corporates operating in areas prioritized by the EU—biotechnology, &nbsp, essential raw materials, clean technology, among some —have to assume more restricted access to European markets, as the EU seeks to reduce dependency in the areas.

Businesses in vital sectors and member states of the EU must also be prepared to face China’s trade protection plans.

Daniel Balazs, PhD, is a Research Fellow of the China Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University. His analysis focuses on Chinese foreign policy, China-India and China-Europe relationships.

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AvePoint launches AI Lab in Singapore to drive industry-focused innovation

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  • The AI Lab will generate world Artificial studies with industry-focused R&amp, D
  • strategies to employ through 25 AI specialists and researchers over the next three years.

Left to Right: Dayana Bulchand, AI Corp Lab program specialist, AvePoint, Dr Lea Tuan Anh Le - country manager of AvePoint Vietnam, Zoe Shang, head, Growth & Strategy Group, AvePoint Singapore, Gerry Hoe, manager, Digital Industry Singapore, Philbert Gomez, executive director & head, Digital Industry Singapore, Dr Tianyi Jiang, co-founder & CEO, AvePoint, Wei Chen, head of R&D, AvePoint, Gregory Tan, AI Corp Lab Program lead, AvePoint 

The Singapore Economic Development Board ( EDB) supported the release of AvePoint’s AI Lab to advance AI-driven research and innovation in the cutting-edge areas of artificial intelligence and machine learning. The company is the world leader in information management and data management. The AI Lab is said to be addressing global business issues through the development of new research and the integration of AI across the AvePoint Confidence Platform in a speech.

It added that the AI Lab may serve as a main hub for high-impact studies in AI, focusing on spurring industry-relevant R&amp, D with a global reach. Scientists, drawn from both local and international expertise lakes, will have the opportunity to operate with AvePoint’s international teams on employ cases from different countries, ensuring an international exchange of knowledge and insights.

In the next three decades, the test will employ across 25 AI researchers and program specialists to help these initiatives, which will encourage AI innovation both locally and globally. Through a global circular programme at AvePoint’s headquarters, it will allow regional PhD-qualified experts to collaborate with top international researchers. Also, the facility will offer opportunities for collaboration with a system of universities and the company’s global item teams.

” We are excited to start the AvePoint AI Lab, which will be instrumental in advancing AI-driven analysis and addressing market requires”, said Wei Chen, mind of R&amp, D at AvePoint. With this facility, we aim to create effective solutions that benefit global industries while improving our SaaS products.

With its global trade element, the AvePoint AI Lab will produce AI-driven solutions for important industries, including:

    Education: AI systems may be harnessed to enhance learning and evaluations, offering personalised, AI-driven academic counselors tailored to students ‘ levels of study.

  • FinTech: AI will improve finance operations by combining advanced information formation and fraud detection with Know Your Client solutions to improve financial product recommendations.

The laboratory will also create impressive suggestion systems for profession development and lifelong learning that are relevant to a worldwide audience. These solutions include enhancing collaboration and knowledge management through AI.

Philbert Gomez, senior producer &amp, head of Digital Industry Singapore, said, “EDB is committed to fostering Artificial technology that addresses real-world business issues. We are pleased to back AvePoint’s AI Lab in Singapore, which may improve cutting-edge AI research and help convert these discoveries into useful solutions for worldwide markets. This program is in line with our intention of positioning Singapore as a center for AI ability and development, creating valuable job opportunities, and promoting the development of AI applications that can increase productivity and competitiveness across different sectors worldwide.

The AI Lab’s main objectives are to expand the company’s SaaS merchandise while expanding its existing product lines to meet changing needs in the world market.

Wei Chen continued,” Our focus is always going to be translating these achievements into practical programs for our customers worldwide,” adding that” The Lab enables us to work on a global level, ensuring that the improvements we develop here in Singapore can have an effect on industries around the world.

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How China plans to rule the world in AI – Asia Times

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This content was first published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with authority.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, said in 2017 that “whoever takes the crown in this realm will rule the world.” He was speaking to some kids about the risks of any nation monopolizing developments in artificial intelligence.

In our present political environment, the United States and China appear to be focusing on AI as the fresh front-runner in the great power fight. This is obvious from the increased amount of AI activities, policies, and actions the two nations have engaged in late.

While the US’s and the EU’s actions on AI have been a regular part of media coverage, the first complete law on AI, the EU’s, have not been properly noted, aside from in-depth scientific analyses that are frequently difficult for the layperson to access or biased coverage that does not do justice to the scientific content of China’s strategies.

This article will cover China’s strategy for influencing AI management and growth on a global level while remaining limited to what is contained in China’s papers on AI while providing some framework where necessary.

It will provide insight into how China intends to utilize AI in its pay for international influence. Ideally, this will tell the discussion on global AI governance in the general public and function as a resource for experts and policymakers working on global AI developments.

Understanding China’s strategy may assist other actors in leadership and AI developments in general in preparing and responding appropriately. It is important that the earth keeps an eye on China seeing that it is very motivated to result in the new century of Artificial Intelligence and that whatever China does is affect us all.

The ways in which China intends to dominate the world through AI are summarized in the following. These were derived from a review of , China’s top AI plan documents , and a relevant analysis, with an emphasis on obvious representations of China’s method for influencing AI management worldwide and its strategies for dominating AI improvements at an international level.

Recognizing AI as a corporate technology for competing at a global stage

China recognizes that AI has implications for national security, and uses it as a proper technology for advancing its position among the most ingeniously competitive nations of the world.

In the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan ( NGAIDP ) of 2017, the People’s Republic of China ( PRC ) made note of the increasing complexity that China faces in terms of national security and international competition in a rapidly emerging world. It therefore recommended that China “must, looking at the world, take the development of AI to the national strategic level with systemic layout, take the initiative in planning, firmly seize the strategic initiative in the new stage of international competition in AI development, “&nbsp, to create

China seems to have recognized the transformative impacts of AI techniques across cultures and markets and is seeking to place itself carefully. By adopting a properly planned approach to AI that aims to create competitive advantages in new markets while also using AI to defend its national security interests, the PRC aims to become a “global science and technology power.”

Keeping up knowledge of one’s strengths and weaknesses

In its bid to utilize AI for global profitability, China looks to strengthen its areas of strength. The NGAIDP took note of this:

China has made significant progress in the field of AI as a result of many years of constant accumulation, with the number of global scientific and technological papers published and the number of patents ranked second in the world, while also achieving significant breakthroughs in some of the most important areas of technology.

The PRC went on to list different areas of China’s scientific leadership and accomplishments, like as voice recognition, physical recognition, professional and service robots, smart monitoring and biological identification.

China, however, appears to be open-minded about its abilities and acknowledges the areas where it needs to improve. The PRC pointed out that despite China’s accomplishments in the fields listed, there is still a gap between, in the eyes of China, and other developed nations that are particularly concerned about achieving significant original results in fields like basic theory, core algorithms, key equipment, high-end chips, and more.

China looks to address these and other areas through urgently improving basic infrastructure, policies, regulations, and standards systems.

identifying opportunities and monitoring global trends in AI development

China does n’t take the risk of stumbling over its approach and dumping its resources wherever it wants to go in order to realize its AI plans. Instead, the PRC looks to be opportunistic and utilizing-maximizing. China will “accurately grasp the global development trends of AI, find the appropriate openings for breakthroughs and directions for the main thrust,” according to the NGAIDP.

The PRC intends to closely monitor global AI developments through R&amp, D initiatives and studies that evaluate general trends. By capitalizing on opportunities revealed in crucial areas by trendwatching, China hopes to lead the world by setting the trend itself.

gaining the advantage of the first-mover

The phrase “first-mover advantage” is a recurring phrase in China’s AI policy documents. This is indicative of the PRC’s intent to drive novel discovery and application of AI systems. The Ministry of Education released the 2018 Artificial Intelligence Action Plan for Institutions of Higher Education ( Action Plan ) to help with this goal. One of the goals of the Action Plan was stated as follows:” That China can gain a first-mover advantage in the development of artificial intelligence.”

The implication of this is that China preconceives that certain benefits of AI will only accrue to first-movers and it works towards realizing these.

consciously distributing resources

According to them, money makes the world revolve. AI is no exception and China understands this. China will “fully use existing finances, bases, and other such stored resources,” according to the NGAIDP, and it will “fully plan the allocation of international and domestic innovation resources.”

The PRC intends to use policy incentives to inform its use of inputs from its financial administration experts, aiming to make the best use of its resources for pursuing innovation on a global scale.

Therefore, to realize its vision of being a global science and technology power, China is prioritizing a conscientious allocation of its financial and other resources in its domestic and international policies.

achieving technological and theoretical advancements in AI

Basic science funding is typically a subject of negative effects when budget cuts are made in many nations because the returns are frequently not immediately apparent or applicable. However, China has identified this area as a critical area that will inform its capacity to develop world-leading AI systems and drive its economic ascent to global power.

By 2025, China will have significant advances in fundamental theories of AI, with the NGAIDP predicting that AI will become the main driver of China’s industrial upgrading and economic transformation.

China’s ambitions are further exemplified in the Action Plan, which states that it will “make a number of original achievements of international significance” and “demonstrate a world-class level in some theoretical research, innovative technology, and application.”

By achieving groundbreaking progress in new-generation AI theory and technology systems, China hopes to contribute to AI applications in fields such as intelligent manufacturing, intelligent medicine and national defense construction, all of which it expects will greatly expand and strengthen its economy.

And the results are already arriving. China has filed the most AI patents since 2020, leading the world in terms of publication figures, and as of 2022, it has filed the most. These results are also aided by China ‘s&nbsp, expanding domestic market and AI-promoting privacy-weak regulations.

promoting globalization and entering global markets

China hopes that the cumulative effects of its AI-related theoretical and technological advancements will have a bigger impact on global markets. The NGAIDP predicted that China will achieve “world-leading levels” in AI theories, technologies, and applications by 2030, making it the&nbsp, “world’s primary AI innovation center”.

The PRC hopes that having concrete results from the use of AI in sophisticated society and economic arrangements will lay the foundation for its rise to economic dominance among the most creative countries on the world stage. China is also determined to actively support its domestic AI businesses and brands to achieve a global leading status and facilitate international cooperation with leading foreign AI companies and research institutes.

The” Internet ” Artificial Intelligence Three-Year Action and Implementation Plan ( Internet Plan ) detailed China’s plan to

encourage cooperation with the relevant nations to improve the R&D and use of AI technology, integrate domestic and international innovation resources, and strengthen the industry’s ability to innovate globally and remain competitiv. We will assist relevant industry associations, industry alliances, and business service organizations in developing service platforms and providing international cooperation and overseas innovation services to innovative companies in the AI field. &nbsp,

China also wants to increase its influence on global AI developments by collaborating with other member nations in the” One Belt, One Road” initiative, a foreign policy initiative to increase its global footprint by funding infrastructural, trade, and investment projects around the world, and obtaining foreign AI investments in research and development.

investing in education and the talent pipeline

Talent is a critical element and resource for AI developments and China recognizes this in its plan for global influence in AI. This is particularly crucial given China’s growing brain drain and the country’s increasing talent shortage, many of whom are leaving the country as a result of undemocratic political and social conditions.

The NGAIDP provides specifics on how China addresses what it sees as a strategic weakness in its AI strategies. By prioritizing the” construction of a high-end talent team” the PRC seeks to build a talent base both by improving its AI education system and by hunting for the “world’s top talent and young talent”.

It aims to accomplish this by setting up personnel training centers, conducting research collaborations with the top AI research institutions in the world, receiving technical advice from top AI talent from abroad, supporting academic exchanges abroad and technical exchanges, and using talent schemes like the” Thousand Talents” plan.

By 2030, colleges and universities will be the main force behind the construction of the world’s main AI innovation centers, according to the Action Plan, and they will be the ones to create a new generation of AI talent. This will give China the scientific and technological support and guaranteed talent to place it at the top of the list of innovation-oriented nations.

In light of this, institutions of higher education are encouraged to adapt their curricula to be responsive to cutting-edge developments in global science and technology, create additional AI-related majors that address industrial demand nationally and regionally, cross-integrate professional education for AI with other disciplines and create world-class teaching materials.

influencing global governance and standards

China is no longer content to take directions and follow the rules on AI made by its Western counterparts. Instead, it now wants to actively participate in and even take the lead in developing international standards for AI.

In the NGAIDP, the PRC stated that it would play a bigger role in global AI governance. China looks to focus on studying major problems common to the international community, such as robot alienation and safety supervision, and improve its collaboration with other countries to develop AI laws, regulations, and international rules to” jointly cope with global challenges”.

The PRC intends to support its domestic AI businesses in their efforts to contribute to or take the lead in the development of technical standards abroad, even as they promote their AI goods and services there. The Action Plan also details how China’s education strategy affects international standards and laws.

By encouraging Chinese scholars to occupy influential positions in international academic organizations and supporting them as they actively take part in drafting international AI regulations, the PRC believes it can influence many international AI spaces with Chinese initiatives and standards.

Finally, China’s Internet Plan expressed its intention to support its relevant departments, research institutions, standardization organizations, industry organizations, and businesses in working with, among others, the International Organization for Standardization ( ISO ), to establish mechanisms for standards exchange and cooperation.

The PRC stated in full that it would continue to support the export of Chinese AI standards to the world and continue to strengthen our standing internationally. Obviously, China is going all out to rewrite the rules.

At the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Olajide Olugbade studies science and technology policy with a minor in international affairs.

His research areas include the global dynamics of emerging technologies, ethics and governance, innovation politics, and innovation ecosystems. He can be contacted at&nbsp, oolugbade3@gatech .edu.

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With falling interest rates, have T-bills and savings bonds lost their allure?

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Additionally, Mr. Thum cited items from online banks and financial institutions like Stashaway, GXS, Singlife, and Syfe, which have interest charges that are close to 3 %.

” The biggest beneficial is that these are all incredibly low risk purchases”, he said, adding that the minimum sum is as low as S$ 100 for some items.

According to Mr. Ray Zheng, a client advisor at Providend, owners should find out where their money is actually going with fixed payments or several money. The earnings on products offered by financial institutions may be attractive.

Alfred Chia, the CEO of SingCapital, noted that some businesses may use this technique to generate higher profits. Buyers need to be aware of what the long-term results may actually get.

ALTERNATIVES WITH HIGHER LIQUIDITY

For buyers looking for items without lock-in intervals, fixed income resources and money market funds are two possible solutions, according to Mr Zheng of Providend.

The first is a collection of investment-grade ties, while the second is a collection of short-term fixed payments managed by a fund manager.

Both are extremely wet, so buyers can typically withdraw their money as needed.

A least BBB rating on investment grade bonds indicates that the lender is financially positioned to pay attention to investors.

” Ties and fixed income are generally considered to be low-risk equipment”, said Mr Zheng, noting that they are less dangerous than other asset classes like stocks.

” When businesses are over, bonds or fixed income lose less than securities”, he said.

Comparing strong bonds or fixed payments to set money funds and money market funds, maximum investment amounts are usually lower.

But, Mr. Zheng noted that these funds may be more difficult to understand and less clear than bonds or fixed payments, which are both more difficult to buy and understand.

Mr Alfred Chia, CEO of SingCapital, said there is potential for capital gains when owners buy a set salary account.

When interest rates fall, bond rates generally rise. Selling the tie for a higher price may have a positive impact on the investor.

He even said traders should consider shares in building a healthy, long-term investment.

” Come state for low-risk buyers, they may consider an investment portfolio made up of 80 per cent ties and 20 per cent equity”, he said.

When interest rates fall, the saving cost for firms is lowered. ” Companies that can handle well, they will be able to boost their profit, but finally, equity markets did do well”.

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‘Trump trade’ wins, Asia loses as risk factors surge – Asia Times

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It’s obvious Donald Trump’s big gain is a game-changer of epic sizes, from the harsh effect in Asian economies to the frantic press speculation about what lies ahead.

The declines in Chinese securities and the yuan only demonstrate how investors are quickly rearranging their strategies for addressing global financial risks and opportunities. The money surged on the news Trump scored a&nbsp, next term. US companies jumped, as did crypto prices. Provides on US Treasury securities shot higher, also.

The” Trump trade” that Asia has in mind is to take cover. A Trump 2.0 White House may certainly be more inward-looking, putting Asia’s export-oriented economy in harm’s way.

A large fire radius is present. Though aimed at China, Trump’s designed 60 % tariffs will destroy Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam and another trade-driven markets. The aftermath on shipping flows could be unimaginable.

According to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, a planner at JPMorgan,” a significant increase in tariffs would reflect the most significant departure in policy from the latest administration and possibly the largest source of volatility.” The current macro environment is significantly different from what it was eight years ago, when the business cycle was in its mid-cycle, when the Fed did n’t care about inflation, and when pro-growth 1.0 policies were simpler to implement and had a greater impact on the bottom line.

Trump’s win over Kamala Harris is more of a “black swans” occasion for Asia than a “gray one.” Unlike the past, the latter is a repetitive but doubtful results. A “gray swan”, though, does have its own&nbsp, serious consequences, too.

Unexpected effects might be a way to strengthen Xi Jinping’s influence in China. Trump may effectively strengthen it by attacking Beijing with such an aggressiveness that he essentially strengthens by compulsion to integrate with an Eastern economy with China at its core and not an America led by an uneven, mercantilist president who blames Asia for many of his country’s failings.

For Asia, the best-case situation is that Trump’s tax risks are more a negotiating strategy than a real accompli. In fact, Goldman Sachs economists predict that Trump may only establish 20 % tariffs on China and resist the urge to impose blanket charges on other countries.

Trump may turn the other means and impose taxes he has previously threatened to impose. Trump has already stated that there will be 100 % taxes on Mexican car exports.

How much is manufacturers in Japan and Korea hope to avoid such restrictions, especially given that Tesla’s CEO has Trump’s ear? At the very least, electronic vehicle charges will be stacked confidently against non-US manufacturers.

The&nbsp, financial challenges &nbsp, may be even greater. One is that a penny march that has already irritated Asia will take a turn. For years, the economy’s “wasteball” impulses have shook international markets. It has lured enormous waves of global capital west, disadvantaging emerging-market markets in specific.

The difficulty, explains Tom Dunleavy, a companion at MV Capital, is that emerging markets “rely strongly on assets and have debts in money”. The majority of business and debt is also based in dollars, along with fuel. And he says that” the ratio of everything is going up.”

Regardless of the dubious reasoning behind it, the more packed a continued-dollar-strength business becomes as the result of the global fallout when depressed punters flee for their exits. And Trump was serve up some such situations.

Though Trump’s tariffs get the headlines, Asia is extremely worried about what his next president may mean for the Federal Reserve, the keeper of the world’s top supply money.

Trump put the techniques on the Fed during his 2017-2021 stay in the White House. Jerome Powell sabotaged his hand-picked Fed chair, and he went after him frequently. In 2019, Powell bowed to unrelenting force from&nbsp, Trump, who also threatened to fire him.

That’s how the world’s most powerful economic authority added liquidity to a flourishing business that did n’t need new substances. Trump’s Fed meddling set the stage for the post-Covid-19 price surge to come. It also tarnished the Fed’s credibility in global markets.

For Asia, Trump’s Fed policies are especially worrisome. The region’s central banks are armed with the largest stocks of US Treasury securities. Japan alone holds$ 1.1 trillion of US debt, China$ 770 billion.

Together, Asia’s largest holders of dollars own about$ 3 trillion worth. Trump 2.0 would put at risk vast amounts of Asian state wealth if his fiscal policies push Washington’s debt far above today’s US$ 35 trillion.

Not to mention the ways China might retaliate, leading to cycle of tit-for-tat trade curbs. Or might Beijing make a move to dump sizable amounts of Treasuries to punish the Trump 2.0 gang?

Or what if Trump’s designs on altering the Fed’s mandate come to pass? A key plank of the” Project 2025″ strategy that the Heritage Foundation devised for a&nbsp, second Trump term&nbsp, is watering down Fed independence.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Trump took shots at Powell and his fellow policymakers. ” I think it’s the greatest job in government”, Trump said. Everybody talks about you like a god when you say,” Let’s say flip a coin,” and you show up to the office once a month.

Trump also contends that the White House has every right to compel the Fed to do its bidding.

Trump once remarked in August that the Federal Reserve had “kind of got it wrong” ( very interesting ). He went on to say that” I feel the president should have at least ]some ] say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful. And I believe I have a better instinct than those who, in many cases, would be chairman of the Federal Reserve.

This could put the Fed’s economic role closer to that of the People’s Bank of China.

To be sure, the concept of central bank independence has been muddied. Take the&nbsp, Bank of Japan, which has held interest rates at or near zero for 25 years. What truly self-governing central bank would do that?

Yet the Fed is a different story. The dollar serves as the foundation of global finance and trade. Trump frequently discussed using a weaker dollar to gain a competitive advantage during his first term. Any policy change that undermines confidence in the US government and the dollar makes the world system shakier.

A weaker dollar could fan inflation. That, on top of Trump’s tariffs, could put the Fed in a very tough spot as Trump looks over Powell’s shoulder. Economists are frantically debating how all of this might turn out.

” On the US dollar, Trump wants to revitalize US manufacturing and exports”, says Will Denyer, an analyst at Gavekal Research. He may try to manipulate the dollar lower because he recognizes that the strength of the US dollar is an obstacle to these goals.

However, Denyer says, “he has few good options. Given how dependent the US government and companies are on foreign capital today, it is difficult to use capital controls to deter foreign inflows. And if Fed chair Jay Powell persists until the end of his term in May 2026, leaning on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates wo n’t be simple in the near future.

Trump might try to use the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic in an effort to revalue their currencies, Denyer adds. However, it is doubtful whether multilateral or even broader economic policy changes will significantly weaken the US dollar in the absence of broader economic policy shifts.

This, Denyer concludes,” will leave Trump to hope that continued disinflation allows the Fed to cut rates, weakening the US dollar. However, there is a sizable probability that loose fiscal policy and sticky inflation will keep&nbsp, monetary policy&nbsp, relatively tight, supporting the US dollar and confounding Trump’s aim of weakening the currency”.

Another irrational possibility: whether Trump will continue to flirt with defaulting on US debt. He declared to CNBC in 2016 that he would “know that you could make a deal” if the economy crashed. And if the economy was good, it was good. So, therefore, you ca n’t lose”.

Trump considered canceling Beijing’s debt while serving as president for the first time in light of trade tensions. With the US national debt twice the size of Chinese gross domestic product, it’s easy to see how that would make the 2008″ Lehman shock” seem quaint by comparison.

Asian assets are also weighed by the threat of geopolitical conflict. One example is what a Trump 2.0 foreign policy team might have for Taiwan.

Trump’s return is music to Vladimir Putin’s ears, giving the Russian leader greater scope to commandeer&nbsp, Ukraine&nbsp, once and for all. Compared with US President Joe Biden’s administration, Trump also seems less likely to come to Taipei’s defense if China moved against the island of&nbsp, 23 million people.

Asia investors will also keep their bets guessing about the direction US policies in the Middle East will take. Trump, for instance, might give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more freedom to fight the conflict in Gaza. He’s also likely to tighten sanctions on Iran, adding fresh uncertainty to oil supply dynamics and, by extension, energy prices.

” Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous”, says commodity researcher Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby at Goldman Sachs.

As Trump 2.0 assumes power, other issues will concern Asian governments. Japan and Korea are concerned that Trump’s “grand bargain” trade agreement with Xi leaves other top Asian nations staring in from the distance.

All that’s clear, though, is that there will be fewer guardrails or inhibitions as Trump seeks to “make America great again” at Asia’s expense.

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PM gives top priority to food security 

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In: South-East Asia

Thailand has the opportunity to target local requires thanks to two summits in China.

PUBLISHED: 6 Nov 2024 at 19: 49

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and cabinet ministers arrive at Kunming Changshui International Airport in Yunnan province of China on Wednesday afternoon for the Greater Mekong Subregion summit. (Photo: Royal Thai Government)
For the Greater Mekong Subregion conference, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and government officials arrive at Kunming Changshui International Airport in Yunnan province of China on Wednesday evening. ( Photo: Royal Thai Government )

One of the main issues to be discussed at two regional meetings in China is the promotion of Thailand’s imports and addressing problems surrounding food safety, according to Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Wednesday. &nbsp,

Ms Paetongtarn is attending the eighth Greater Mekong Subregion ( GMS ) Economic Cooperation Summit and the 10th Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy ( Acmecs ) summit in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province. The two sessions will finish on Thursday.

Ms. Paetongtarn said the browse presented an chance for the Thai authorities to strengthen its cooperation with local leaders and build on the discussions that took place at the Asean mountain in Laos in October to increase trade and investment opportunities.

” We will get assistance to develop our trade markets, especially in the food safety field, which is becoming a global issue”, she said. Thailand has the resources to support foods safety because of its technological and technological advancements.

She also emphasized the need for local leaders to collaborate on issues like flooding, dryness, and air pollution.

Thailand is prepared to learn from the experiences of its neighbors in terms of disaster management and prevention, as well as their systems and early warning systems, in order to stop future disasters like the recent flooding in the Mae Sai area of Chiang Rai, according to Ms. Paetongtarn.

She added that she would get discussions with neighbors to find strategies to combat intergovernmental cloud pollution, which occurs almost every dry time.

At the GMS Summit, the chairman of the Asian Development Bank and members of the GMS Business Council joined the rulers of Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam and China. &nbsp,

They were expected to explain how to suppress disparities in the sub-region through three pillars: communication, competitiveness and society, according to government official Jirayu Houngsub.

The Acmecs meet, chaired by Laos, is reviewing the development of its 2019-23 master plan.

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