Another Trump administration may not be a disaster for Ukraine – Asia Times

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, was one of the first world leaders to address Donald Trump following his win on November 5. Congratulating the US president-elect, Zelenskyy expressed trust in the “potential for stronger participation” between the two countries.

Some are less certain. Trump’s defeat has stoked ambiguity over Washington’s commitment to help Ukraine repel Soviet invaders in the wake of his lukewarm attitude toward NATO, his condemnation of the volume of US support being sent to Ukraine, and his vows to close the ongoing battle in Eastern Europe.

As an expert on Eastern Europe, I am aware of these problems. However, I also provide a counterargument: Kyiv might never actually benefit from a Trump White House.

NATO’s quest to shop Russia remains constant

It is common to speak Trump described as separatist, political and an anti-interventionist on the world stage. He has promoted such a viewpoint through states, such as that the US may ignore its obligation to defend a NATO member from a Russian attack if the member nation did n’t meet its commitments for defence spending.

However, established facts and former Republican positions undermine for speech.

The US Congress passed republican legislation that would have prohibited a senator from reversing their unilateral support for European security and stability in December 2023.

Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican co-sponsor of that bill, has recently come out as a significant Trump confidant, and according to studies, Rubio will be appointed as Trump’s secretary of state.

The US and Europe remain each other’s most important areas. In light of the impact of volatility in Europe on both the US and the world, the United States will become very motivated to keep playing a key role in European security.

In addition, there is nothing to indicate that the incoming administration may view China as the main risk to the US from those in Obama, Biden, and even Trump. Vladimir Putin’s martial engagements in Ukraine have been supported by Beijing.

Washington would be strengthened in Asia if it continued to cooperate with friends in Europe. Strong defense cooperation, such as coordinating with the British to create submarines for Australia, helps the US plan to store and have China’s threat in the Pacific. In times of crisis, continuing that cooperation would also show to US allies in Asia that it can provide reliable protection partners, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Trump is n’t as comfortable with Putin as he’s often portrayed as being

Trump’s alleged closeness with Putin has received a lot of praise. In the run-up to the poll, Trump insisted that, should he succeed, he would send peace to Ukraine yet before he was inaugurated and called Putin” savvy”, a “genius”, for the Ukrainian war. On his part, Putin congratulated Trump on his win, praising him for being” gutsy” when a gunman tried to assassinate him. Moscow has even indicated that it is prepared to speak with the newly elected Democratic president.

Trump’s true policy toward Russia during his first name may have been more aggressive than these statements suggest. However, it is persuasive that the Trump presidency was more hawkish toward Putin than the Obama-led one.

For instance, Trump refused to give Ukrainers anti-tank rockets despite the Obama administration’s protests. Moreover, in 2018, the U. S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, citing the preceding violations of the agreement by Russia. In comparison, when President Obama first alleged that Russia had tested a ground-launched boat weapon in 2014, he had chosen to stay away from the agreement.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, referred to the Trump administration’s agreement removal move as” a pretty risky step”. The US was stifled from developing new weaponry as a result of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which had also tied Washington’s interests in the Pacific corporate conflict with China.

Finally, in 2019, Trump signed the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act, which included restrictions halting the development of the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline immediately connecting Russia to Germany, via the Baltic Sea. The Russian government has since called the pipeline an “economic and power blockade,” but a sabotage attack in 2022 has since caused it to be useless. The second Trump administration to hinder Russia took 52 policy steps to sign the act.

In comparison, the Biden administration waived Nord Stream 2 pipeline restrictions in 2021, just to reinstate them on Feb. 23, 2022 – one moment before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

‘ Drill, child, drill’ did hurt Russian oil

About three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s combat system also runs on energy revenues. Countries continue to buy from Russia despite previously unrestricted sanctions from the West that aim to restrict sales of Russian oil. For instance, India has surpassed Russia in terms of shipping seaborne crude oil.

And here a Trump policy not aimed directly at Russia may, in fact, harm Russian interests.

Trump has repeatedly promised to start a new wave of oil and gas drilling on American soil. And while it may take some time for this to come through to lower global prices, US production, which is already the world’s top crude oil producer, has the potential to have an impact.

Trump’s resumption of the White House might lead to stricter sanctions against Iran from the US, which would lessen Tehran’s ability to sell weapons to Russia. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian invasion in February 2022, Iran has backed Russia both militarily and diplomatically. And since 2020, Iran’s revenue from oil exports nearly quadrupled, from US$ 16 billion to$ 53 billion in 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Predicting what Trump, a notably unpredictable leader, will do in power is difficult. Since US foreign policy can be a slow-moving beast, no one should anticipate major breakthroughs or surprises. However, his record contradicts what observers have suggested: Ukraine’s future may not be in good hands with his victory.

Tatsiana Kulakevich is an affiliate professor at the University of South Florida’s Institute for Russian, European, and Eurasian Studies. She is also an associate professor of instruction in the School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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PM courts US cash on trip

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Thai ambassadors urged to attract buyers

PUBLISHED: 13 Nov 2024 at 04: 45

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra receives a garland from youngsters who came to perform for her at a reception at a Thai community in Los Angeles, where she is chairing a meeting of Thai ambassadors and diplomats until Wednesday before attending the 30th Apec Summit in Lima, Peru, from Nov 14-16. GOVERNMENT HOUSE
Before the 30th Apec Summit in Lima, Peru, on November 14 and 16, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is invited to perform for her at a reception at a Thai society in Los Angeles. GOVERNMENT HOUSE

Following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, Thai officials have been urged to take a proactive strategy in attracting foreign buyers, according to Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Tuesday.

She addressed the remarks to Indian ministers, consul generals, and Team Thailand leaders based in North and South America at a conference held at a hotel in Los Angeles.

Before flying to Peru for the 31st Apec Economic Leaders ‘ Meeting and related meetings scheduled for November 10 to 16, the prime minister and her group will be in Los Angeles on Wednesday.

She claimed that now that Mr. Trump has been elected president, the government is getting ready for a change in the political environment.

She also emphasized the importance of Thai officials, business attaches, and board of funding representatives taking a proactive approach and acting as the nation’s “front line” to attract foreign investors.

Diplomats should make their government’s activities known. The government is making every effort to help Thailand with its financial problems by bringing as little money as possible.

It is necessary to look for new opportunities and partnerships that will boost the economy. I want the officials to focus on promoting purchase,” Ms Paetongtarn said.

She added that when developing and implementing common policies and services, the state places a focus on people.

She said Thailand boasts a wealth of expertise, but many of the region’s brightest thoughts now work elsewhere. The government is therefore working to boost the economy, create more options, and entice Thai ability to work there.

The government’s “matching fund” was established to develop the Thai private sector’s markets, the prime minister added, stressing the need to encourage startups.

In contrast, the state has a plan that supports Thai individuals ‘ studies abroad. Students who want to advance their studies in fields like aerospace and electronic technologies will receive scholarships.

The government may try to ensure social stability, according to Ms. Paetongtarn, to improve investor confidence.

She even assured me that the government would continue in power until the end of its term to maintain consistency with the way its investment plan is implemented.

Thai ambassadors from North and South America likewise provided the PM with updates on a number of problems during Tuesday’s meet. Suriya Chindawongse, the US embassy, gave the PM a briefing on US politicians and potential economic growth, and stated that Thai investors were being encouraged to make more US investments.

In the winter, the French ambassador, Kallayana Vipattipumiprates, informed the prime minister that French visitors enjoyed daily direct flights between Vancouver and Thailand.

Wimonpatchara Raksakiat, the Thai adviser to Chile, informed the prime minister about the country’s soft power advertising policy.

The prime minister responded by saying that the government supports international experts ‘ knowledge markets and teaching of Thai staff in a variety of new areas, which it believes will expand the country’s appeal further.

According to government official Jirayu Houngsub, Ms. Paetongtarn also went to a Thai church in Los Angeles on Tuesday, where she met members of the largest community that, which is located outside of Thailand.

During the explore, she accepted a US$ 30, 000 payment from the Thai community to help flood victims in Thailand.

She also praised Thai foreigners who lived in the US and encouraged them to travel back and utilize their expertise and knowledge to advance Thailand.

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Rubio brings China Realism to the State Department – Asia Times

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Marco Rubio will be the next Secretary of State in the following Trump presidency, according to press reports.

The senior senator from Florida offers as a vocal China hawk, like the whole of his Democratic gathering, but with a essential difference: In September, Rubio published a 60-page statement,” The World China Made“, with a complete and painstakingly researched study of China’s financial success.

Some observers have already speculated that Nixon’s 1972 China trip might be influenced by the hiring of a seasoned China hawk like Rubio.

According to this theory, Secretary of State Rubio could negotiate with China without making any claims that he would sell out, and Secretary of State Rubio could do the same. Without second-guessing the incoming president’s negotiating strategy with China, Rubio’s published thoughts about China speak for themselves.

Full disclosure: the report cites Asia Times and this writer in particular, including our groundbreaking analysis of China’s export success in the Global South. By creating supply chains for Vietnam, Mexico, India, and other nations for export to the United States, China evaded Trump and Biden tariffs by building factories in third countries.

A bright line divides realists from Utopians among Washington’s China hawks. According to neoconservatives like Dan Blumenthal, well-known figures like Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan, and real believers like former US Secretary of State and CIA director Michael Pompeo, China is about to collapse, and the US should prepare to do so militarily and economically.

If the US had shut down ZTE, he claimed, he would have led a group of unemployed engineers to march on Beijing and toppled Xi Jinping. A senior official from the first Trump administration told this writer in 2018 that the then-president had made a mistake by agreeing to that deal.

Realists on the other side of the coin may despise China and accuse it of scheming, but they acknowledge that it has made significant progress in both domestic and international trade. Rubio dismisses the utopian vision in the report’s conclusion as the best-informed among the realists:

Commentary on China’s economy swings wildly between extremes. On the one hand, the Chinese economy is often portrayed as deeply troubled, perhaps even on the verge of collapse. Stories in this vein emphasize China’s very high debt burden, slowing growth, distressed real-estate sector, and aging population—all real problems. In an interview with Time magazine in June, President Joe Biden made the claim that China’s economy is “on the brink.” ‘ …

China’s export- and manufacturing-oriented development model may have been successful enough in the short term to push the country toward the cutting-edge of technology, but not enough to enable it to overcome its structural issues over the long term. Many in Washington favor this narrative because it brings back our Cold War victory.

Then, a revolutionary, dynamic, and capitalist United States triumphed over a repressive regime with a dysfunctional, gerontocratic political class and a failed communist economic system incapable of navigating the information age. Our country’s past success has led to a similar triumph, which is tempting to believe. We win, they lose. But an invincible belief in one’s own success is a recipe for complacency. And increasingly, this belief is at odds with the evidence in front of our faces.

Let’s say the United States ca n’t be complacent about Communist China if this report serves as a message. Think-tank scholars and economists may bank on China’s coming collapse. The wager is being flipped by Beijing. It believes that manufacturing, exports, and ‘ new quality productive forces’ are the keys to regime survival and indeed to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. It thinks that modern technology and production will help it maintain its communist system while achieving wealth.

It has succeeded so far in establishing an alternative development path. But suppose today is the high-water mark of China’s power. Even in such a promising world, the CCP will continue to be a real, existential threat to American workers and industry for years to come. Additionally, Communist China will continue to be a formidable adversary unlike anything the US has ever faced. The CCP’s project’s critics, who claim that it is doomed to fail, should bear the burden of proof at this point.

Some highlights from Rubio’s report include:

  • In terms of industrial robot installations, China is the world’s top installers, with more installed in 2022 than the rest of the world combined.
  • Given the size of China’s manufacturing workforce and wage levels in comparison to those of the United States, China’s robot density exceeded our own in 2021, a remarkable achievement.
  • China’s extensive 5G telecommunications network, which consists of more than 3 million 5G base stations, makes it a leader in smart manufacturing.
  • Chinese entrepreneurs are assisting China in overcoming its reliance on imported tools and robots. Despite record installations, China’s imports of industrial robots have declined the past two years. This is due to Chinese companies ‘ steadily expanding business, which are thought to have had a 35.5 % domestic market share. share in 2022, up from 17.5 % a decade ago. China’s position is even stronger in the incredibly fragmented machine-tool market, wherein Chinese manufacturers will account for nearly a third of global production in 2022.
  • Chinese businesses are establishing sophisticated factories that will enable them to enter foreign markets and halt criticism of export practices.

Rubio’s message is that the United States must make extraordinary efforts to stay ahead of China and that it should n’t believe that a pen-waving device can stop this technological behemoth.

It is not difficult to draw any conclusions about foreign policy based on this analysis.

Follow David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman

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Comparing North and South Korea’s support for two illegal wars – Asia Times

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In recent past, two world powers – first the United States in Iraq and eventually Russia in Ukraine – initiated conflicts that were commonly regarded as questionable, if not outright improper, by much of the global community. Both of these problems sparked heated debate and scrutiny, not just for the aggressors ‘ behavior but also for the international response and alliances they sparked.

Two responses, in particular, have out for their resemblance and political sarcasm: the selection by South Korea to send troops to Iraq in 2004, and North Korea’s new move to give support to Russia in Ukraine. This parallel between the Asian states ‘ respective political systems reveals complex interconnectedness, allegiances, and evolving norms governing foreign military treatments.

A tale of two attacks

The earth was distinctly divided when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. The alleged presence of weapons of mass destruction ( WMDs ) in Iraq was the US’s official justification for the invasion, which was later refuted. However, the Bush administration went forth, citing a desire to promote democracy and remove threats to global stability.

The war was not approved by the UN. The intervention was criticized as unlawful by the UN secretary general and numerous specific nations, including many European allies. Despite global demonstrations and social criticism, the war proceeded, sparking what would become one of the most controversial war of the 21st century.

Nearly two decades later, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unfolded in a similar surroundings of international condemnation. Russia asserted that it was responding to safety concerns and that Ukraine’s residents were being treated unfairly by NATO’s expansion and Russian-speaking groups. Supporters make a distinction between the two, claiming that Ukraine is a neighboring state allied to European powers that threaten Russia’s immediate safety while Iraq is a royal state on the other side of the planet that does not pose a threat to the US.

Regardless, the majority of the country’s nations, especially in the West, denounced Russia’s activities as unwarranted aggression and an unconstitutional violation of Ukraine’s independence. Countries all over Europe and beyond imposed sanctions on Russia while supporting Ukraine, and the UN General Assembly largely condemned the war.

South Korea’s assistance for the US in Iraq

South Korea made the decision to send troops to support the partnership 18 weeks after the US invaded Iraq. This decision was important because South Korea, as a close ally of the United States, was under significant pressure to demonstrate its help for Washington’s plans. South Korea became one of the largest forces contributors to the alliance, behind only the United Kingdom, with the implementation of the Zaytun Division, which included around 3,600 North Korean soldiers. Nevertheless, the decision was not without controversy internally.

Substantial monetary bonuses also contributed to South Korea’s decision to support the United States and dispatch forces. This included continued US military ( including technology ) support, favorable trade conditions crucial for an export-driven economy, and lucrative contracts in construction, energy and telecommunications in Iraqi reconstruction. These economic advantages at the time significantly contributed to South Korea’s growth into Middle Eastern industry.

In South Korea, common opinion on the Iraq War was greatly divided. Many South Koreans viewed the conflict as a United States ‘ “misuse of energy” and an international agreement-brokering. However, South Korea’s state argued that the empire with the US was major, especially given the ongoing defense tension with North Korea. So, South Korea saw a way to strengthen its proper ties with the US, hoping for continued security guarantees and political support for the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea’s aid for Russia in Ukraine

Today, over 30 times into the fight in Ukraine, North Korea has sent military aid to Russia. Although the precise nature of this aid is still undetermined, evidence suggests that North Korea has already deployed military forces and provided ordnance shells and other ammunition to Russian forces, although the role they may enjoy is still unclear. In light of the international sanctions and loneliness that both nations are experiencing, North Korea’s support indicates a more comprehensive alliance with Russia.

In supporting Russia, North Korea has possible secured vital power supplies, food aid and potential access to advanced military technology, which are essential for its struggling economy. Moreover, it is likely that direct funds or in-kind payments may add to the government’s capacity to maintain control within the regime.

The choice also reflects North Korea’s long-standing anti-Western attitude and want to balance US influence in East Asia. North Korea sends a powerful concept of disobedience to what it perceives as American imperialism by supporting Russia in Ukraine. Additionally, North Korea has a significant ally in a world where there are few and its economy and tools are severely restricted by international sanctions because of aligning itself with Russia. Russia, in turn, increases from North Korea’s artillery offer, easing its possess weapons shortages on the forefront in Ukraine.

Norms are dead, long live geopolitical irony! &nbsp,

The irony of these events is not lost on observers. Each of the two rival states on the Korean Peninsula found itself allied with a superpower that was accused of carrying out illegal aggression. The decisions were strategic moves that emphasized the Koreas ‘ respective geopolitical alliances, not necessarily in accordance with the aggressors ‘ justifications.

South Korea’s participation in Iraq, while controversial, demonstrated its alignment with the Western world and its dependence on the US security umbrella, a crucial factor in its security strategy against North Korea. Similarly, North Korea’s support for Russia highlights its resistance to Western influence and a desire to maintain the balance of power in East Asia by aligning itself with a powerful, albeit embattled, Russia.

Further research is also needed regarding how international law and norms affect state behavior in these parallel decisions. Both superpowers acted in ways they believed were in line with their national interests despite the widespread condemnation and the possibility of diplomatic friction. Both South Korea and North Korea gave their strategic alliances precedence over strict adherence to international legal standards, which highlights the limitations of international law when national security is perceived as being at stake.

The two cases make a strong argument that “middle power” norms are, and always were, dependent on national interest. There is no such thing as” good international citizenship”. It is wholly dependent on national interest.

In the end, these cases demonstrate that international alliances often exert a stronger influence on state behavior than adherence to global norms or concerns about the legality of military actions. South Korea’s assistance for the US in Iraq and North Korea’s aid for Russia in Ukraine both highlight how secondary states navigate complex webs of power and influence. The priorities of both Koreas remain their national interestw and the maintenance of alliances that offer them some leverage and stability in an unpredictable world.

The complex nature of international relations and the strong sway of alliances are demonstrated by South Korea and North Korea’s decisions to engage in wars that are widely regarded as illegal. The two Koreas, though ideologically opposed, responded similarly when they were pressured&nbsp, – and offered incentives – by their superpower allies. These choices, in contrast to the increasingly multipolar world where great power competition has resumed, show how small states continue to play strategic roles, frequently placing geopolitical advantage before universal principles.

Jeffrey Robertson is an academic, consultant and writer focusing on foreign affairs, diplomacy and the Korean Peninsula. &nbsp, This article was originally published&nbsp, on his Substack, Diplomatic Seoul, and is republished with permission. Read more here.

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Malaysia stock market’s rally in 2024 buoyed by political stability but analysts warn of looming turbulence

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The KLCI bottomed out at around 1,301 positions during COVID-19, which was further exacerbated by the pandemic’s negative effects on the world market.

As of Monday ( Nov 11 ), the benchmark index has since surged to around 1, 609 points, a 23.7 per cent hike overall. &nbsp,

The Malaysian investment market’s fluctuation between 2018 and 2022, according to Mr. Ng Zhu Hann, founder and CEO of store account manager Tradeview Capital with a base in Kuala Lumpur, is a clear indicator of how sensitive the sector is to leadership unrest.

” So if you look at the chain ( of events that coincided ) with that period, with the changes in administrations, political change from the Sheraton Move, it’s clear that the five year downtrend has to do with political instability”, said Mr Ng. &nbsp,

The Sheraton Move refers to a social maneuver that led to Dr. Mahathir Mohamad’s departure as prime minister and the government’s demise in 2020.

This eventually led to many different prime minister meetings: First, with Muhyiddin Yasin in February 2020, and therefore Mr Ismail Sabri Yaakob in August 2021. &nbsp,

Following the social impasse that resulted from the General Elections in November 2022, Mr. Anwar was appointed prime minister. &nbsp,

Mr Ng said:” Since 2020, the ( Malaysia stock business ) has gone up by nearly 200 details, and this is making us one of Asia’s leading players over the past year, just behind Taiwan and India. The KLCI has resurrected, but it is still not at the 1,800-point levels it was at at the 2018 top.

Mr. Ng noted that Bursa Malaysia as a whole has expanded in addition to the spike in the market index, which is the first time the country’s total market cap has crossed the RM2 trillion ( US$ 454 million ) mark for the first time in May. This is one way to evaluate a company’s worth based on the number of shares of stock and the stock price. &nbsp,

” This has been a broad-based protest led by companies in the home market, banks and even services”, he added.

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Singapore and China sign 25 agreements at annual top-level bilateral meeting to boost cooperation

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STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL Participation

With a number of green finance and money markets initiatives, bilateral economic cooperation will grow.

One tie-up between the central banks of China and Singapore aims to spur natural funding flows. By the end of this year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in a press release on Monday that the practice would be finished.

This will make cross-border alternative loans, natural bond issuance, and account investments easier to compare the natural taxonomies of Singapore and China.

In an effort to expand the exposure to China’s bond market for foreign shareholders, MAS and the People’s Bank of China are even conducting a pilot project with the banks of both nations. It will utilize the existing “over-the-counter” bond business model in China.

Other projects include expanding the range of products on the Shenzhen and Shanghai bourses ‘ Exchange Traded Funds ( ETF ) Product Links, as well as facilitating financial institutions’ access to the Singapore and China markets.

FACILITATING Business AND Opportunities

In trade, Singapore and China reiterated their commitment to the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement ( CSFTA ) Further Upgrade Protocol, which is set to enter into force on Dec 31, 2024, said Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry ( MTI ) in a separate press release.

China’s primary extensive diplomatic free trade agreement with an Asian nation is the CSFTA. It became effective in 2009, and the most recent prepared improvements were unveiled at JCBC last year.

According to MTI, Singapore investors and service providers can anticipate “more democratic and open rules” that will allow them to conduct business with China.

The government added that Singaporean businesses will also gain greater access to China’s economy through a “negative listing” strategy, which means that all industries are automatically opened to investors except those that are exclusively listed.

” Importantly, China commits to not limiting foreign ownership restrictions for Singapore buyers in 22 areas such as design, shopping &amp, wholesale, and architectural &amp, urban planning service”, MTI said.

The Belt and Road Initiative is being promoted in a second deal. It aims to strengthen Singapore and China’s cooperation in places such as policy cooperation, network connectivity, bilateral deal and people-to-people markets.

“( This ) will provide clearer policy guidance for the next phase of high-quality Belt and Road development, further promoting the joint growth of China, Singapore, and regional countries”, said Mr Ding.

Since 2013, Singapore has been China’s largest foreign investment in terms of purchase travels, and China has been Singapore’s largest goods trading partner. Bilateral deal in 2023 amounted to US$ 108.39 billion, according to China’s international government.

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Trump tariffs threaten to torpedo the yuan – Asia Times

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Since Donald Trump’s November 5 vote gain, the Chinese yuan has traded below the main company’s fixing level. As the past and future US leader prepares to start large new trade wars, the evidence suggests that the markets are anticipating a weaker yuan.

A sensible assumption? Not sure if Gongsheng, the government of the People’s Bank of China, has anything to say about it. Pan and, for the time being, President Xi Jinping, want a steady trade rate versus the dollar.

The prominent one is assurance. A significant decrease in the renminbi could indicate to global investors that Asia’s largest economy is facing a serious issue in addition to a terrible property crisis, a growing deflation, and a significant capital flight.

The string, though, is how Trump’s coming trade war may include Team Xi scrambling to make money depreciation excellent again.

” Donald Trump’s win … is ushering in a new cycle of stress on the Foreign money”, says Wei He, an scientist at Gavekal Research.

What will happen if Trump implements his threats of fresh taxes after taking office in January, the main topic is. In this situation, it is very doubtful that the yen will be at its present level”, He said.

After Trump began imposing tariffs in 2018, the PBOC allowed a 13 % loss of the yuan in get” to largely restore trade competitiveness”, He says. So, it is “very likely” that it will allow depreciation once more, especially given the recent policy shift toward supporting local demand.

Again, this is n’t the most likely scenario as yuan internationalization&nbsp, has been a top Xi priority. Xi’s strategy to expand the dollar’s world use in finance and trade may be hampered by a weaker exchange rate.

In&nbsp, 2016, China&nbsp, won a place for the renminbi in the International Monetary Fund’s” special&nbsp, drawing&nbsp, right” box joining the dollar, yen, euro and pound. In the decades since, the stock’s usage has soared. Excessive exchange-rate interference then may dent confidence in the yuan, slowing its hinge toward reserve-currency standing.

At the same time, a falling yuan may increase the odds greatly indebted Chinese firms, including giant home designers, default on their international currency-denominated off-shore debts. That may improve the chance of new problems involving the China Evergrande Group and a Chinese asset dump.

The US Federal Reserve cutting costs as well as the monetary easing needed to support the dollar’s declines may harm Beijing’s deleveraging attempts, in part because of it. Xi’s inner group has made significant strides in eradicating economic abuse over the past few years.

That clarifies why Xi and Premier Li Qiang have been afraid to actively lower prices in the face of mounting negative forces.

Not surprisingly, the” PBOC now appears to be slowly renewing its defence of the money through large state-owned business banks”, says Gavekal’s He.

But if Xi switched program, it would destroy two unexpected dynamics.

One, it may produce Trump’s head explode, artistically speaking. He might retaliate by levying even higher taxes on mainland goods than the 20 % that all products entering the United States must pay are already telegraphed and the 60 % that all other countries have already telegraphed.

” If Trump does began a major industry war, China does, however, hit again, targeting American companies with interests in China, selling US bonds, devaluing the yuan and targeting US imports of agricultural items”, says Evie Aspinalla, a director&nbsp, at the British Foreign Policy Group think tank. ” It would have a significant impact on global trade. China, if it can, would rather avoid this, but if Trump follows through on his trade rhetoric, a tit-for-tat trade war seems all but inevitable”.

Trump, Aspinalla adds, has been “incredibly forthright throughout the campaign on his views on China, not least in his threats to impose 60 % tariffs on China. China, meanwhile, &nbsp, has pledged to continue to work with the US based on the&nbsp, principles of mutual respect, peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation, claiming there are’ no winners’ in a trade war. 60 % tariffs would cripple the Chinese economy, which would put a strain on China’s ability to compete.

That threatened 60 % maneuver alone, UBS&nbsp, Group estimates, will cut China’s annual growth by more than half – chopping 2.5 percentage points off the gross domestic product ( GDP ) of the globe’s top trading nation. Due to sluggish retail spending, property investment, and new home sales, China increased only 4.6 % in the third quarter, up from 4.6 % last year.

A weaker yuan would have a negative impact on a region that is still too dependent on exports for comfort. As UBS&nbsp, economist Wang Tao warns, there’s a “risk of other countries raising tariffs on imports from China as well”, triggering a new wave of retaliatory trade curbs. A weaker yuan may also sway Asian governments to join the bottom-skinned nations.

In the past, Beijing’s beggar-thy-neighbor proclivities put officials from Tokyo to Jakarta on the spot. The top destination for Asian goods is by far China. A weaker yuan might spur regional governments to carry out the biggest devaluations since the Asian crisis of 1997-1998.

Stephen&nbsp, Innes, strategist at SPI Asset Management, notes that” the stakes are sky-high” if Trump goes full steam ahead with tariffs. ” For China”, he says,” the regional economic heavyweight, the options are stark: either devalue the yuan to protect exports or unleash a massive fiscal stimulus to spark domestic demand. A 60 % tariff could trigger a jaw-dropping 30%-45 % yuan devaluation, pushing dollar-yen&nbsp, skyward, possibly even past the 175 mark”.

For Asia, Innes adds,” a roaring dollar could spell disaster. The lifeblood of Asia’s emerging markets is local currency debt, which has lost all gains due to previous dollar surges. Some economies may experience a chokehold as a result of their significant external debts in US dollars. The Trump effect is a high-stakes gamble that could transform the financial landscape for years to come, despite Trump’s victory setting Wall Street on fire.

Context matters, of course, and most Asian economies are n’t approaching the Trumpian storm to come from a position of strength. Due to sluggish retail sales, weak business investment, and soft industrial production, Japan’s GDP continues to decline quarter after quarter. Hence the Bank of Japan’s reluctance to hike short-term rates above 0.25 %.

Political chaos is also raging in Japan. The Liberal Democratic Party lost absolute power late last month, marking the third straight year since 1955. With the assistance of coalition partners, the LDP and Shigeru Ishiba were able to snag control and the title of premier. On Monday, the parliament voted to let Ishiba stay on as Japan’s leader. He will now lead a minority Japanese government.

In Seoul, South Korean President&nbsp, Yoon&nbsp, Suk Yeol is struggling with a 19 % approval rating. Korea struggles to cope with record household debt, which slows down growth. Notably, Korea’s economy is dominated by a handful of giant, export-driven family-owned conglomerates whose profits are uniquely vulnerable to a new trade war.

Central bank officials in Taiwan are struggling with a housing bubble. Indonesia’s economy struggles to stop growing. Artificial intelligence is putting a strain on the Philippines ‘ vital call center sector, which is rapidly expanding. Singapore is having a cost-of-living crisis. Political conflict is preventing economic reforms in Thailand.

All of this implies that many Asian economies will import tariffs from countries already in place. China, too, as a massive property crisis drags on and increases the odds of deflation.

Jeremy Zook, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, says,” the potential exacerbation of current supply and demand trends, coupled with demographic and debt overhang challenges, poses a risk of sustained price falls”.

Chinese “domestic demand is weak, and a longer-than-expected real estate downturn is a significant risk to our growth forecasts”, Zook notes. ” Capital spending is increasing faster in export-oriented sectors. External demand is robust, but a slowing global economy in 2025 will likely constrain export growth”.

There is a case for the Communist Party of Xi’s devaluing the yuan. One of his 11 years in power was one of the most consistently consistent reform initiatives to create a stable and reliable currency regime.

” This was a commonly discussed topic throughout the year, and while it’s impossible to say for sure, we do not think this is a likely outcome”, says Lynn Song, economist at ING Bank. China’s emphasis on currency stabilization is not directly related to short-term trade flows, but it is likely to lessen pressure on capital outflows in the near future and make RMB trade settlement and internationalization easier.

In consequence, Song states that” we anticipate the PBOC to continue to resist significant movements for the RMB in either direction.” This position does not appear to be significantly changing.

The” PBOC might attempt to reset the yuan at a new equilibrium after incorporating the tariffs risk,” says Mizuho Bank’s chief Asian FX strategist, Ken Cheung. By front-loading onshore yuan depreciation, it could smooth out volatility during the US tariffs announcement, if any”.

Economist Robin Xing&nbsp, at Morgan Stanley notes that” we believe PBOC’s strategy could be to tolerate some onshore yuan depreciation against the dollar, but keep it outperforming other emerging-market currencies with intervention”.

All bets are off, of course, if Trump tries to out-devalue Asia. Trump’s supporters have suggested a unilateral dollar-price strategy to benefit US exporters. Trumpworld has been debating an Argentina-like pivot at the behest of advisors like Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former and likely future international trade representative.

Or if Trump’s next Treasury Department attempts to upend the post-World War II” Bretton Woods” system in ways Trump 1.0 did n’t. Trump’s tax proposals could also lead to an even higher national debt, which would lead to credit downgrades that would cause the dollar to drastically fall.

For now, though, the” Trump trade” is sending the dollar higher and pulling waves of capital toward US assets. That is putting downward pressure on the yuan, which is raising concerns that Beijing might choose to pursue a downward trend.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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India giving RCEP free trade pact a needful second look – Asia Times

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” India should be a part of RCEP and CPTPP”, according to B V R Subrahmanyam, CEO of the National Institution for Transforming India ( NITI ) Aayog, the Indian government’s top public policy think tank and nodal agency for catalyzing economic development.

Speaking recently to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India ( Assocham ), Subrahmanyam said inclusion in the Asia-centric trade blocs” …will be best for India’s micro, small &amp, medium enterprises sector…40 % of India’s exports are from MSMEs. Great corporates are not great producers”.

The NITI Aayog CEO even claimed that higher taxes prevented India from fully exploiting the expanding supply chain growth away from China. ” I do n’t think we have captured the’ China plus one ‘ opportunity as much as we could have”, he added.

The American government participated in the negotiations that ultimately led to the 15-member Asia-Pacific free trade agreement, which has the highest GDP in the world. But, it decided against joining on the idea it would set American company and agriculture at a net-net downside.

However, as the world business environment enters a precarious new time, perceptions appear to be shifting in New Delhi. &nbsp,

India’s first role in forming RCEP, which took power in January 2022, gives the rest to widely held notions the union is, at its base, a China-led program aimed at rewriting the rules of international business to Beijing’s advantage.

In actuality, RCEP originated in August 2011 at the ASEAN 3 ( China, Japan, South Korea ) conference, which adopted a joint Japanese-Chinese proposal known as the” Initiative on Speeding up the Establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area ( EAFTA ) and Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia ( CEPEA )”.

All of the Asia-Pacific governments were involved in the lengthy procedure of RCEP’s growth, and all, barring India, signed it on November 15, 2020. The RCEP includes Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam

RCEP will remove taxes on about 90 % of traded commodities within 20 years and regulate many customs, purchase, intellectual property and e-commerce rules. Covering almost 30 % of the world economy, it is also the first trade agreement linking Japan, China and South Korea.

The benefits of RCEP were summarized by the New Zealand authorities because:

  • Greater certainty and lower difficulty are enhanced by a second set of trade and investment regulations that apply to the entire RCEP place.
  • the possibility for our manufacturers to enter local RCEP-wide value chains.
  • More business exposure opportunities, specifically for companies and investment into China and some ASEAN member state.
  • Less red audio for manufacturers, and more refined trade, and
  • New guidelines on federal procurement, competition policy and electronic business, which will help New Zealand producers take advantage of increased business possibilities.

Operate could do the same for India.

The CPTPP ( Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ) is a separate free trade agreement comprised of 11 countries around the Pacific Ocean, including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

The US was instrumental in developing the Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ) under President Barack Obama but abandoned under Donald Trump in January 2017; it became effective at the end of December 2018.

The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity ( IPEF ) promoted by the US government as an alternative to the CPTPP is long on feel-good jargon but short on measures to lower tariffs and improve US market access for its 13 other participants: Australia, Brunei, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. In May of this year, IPEF was launched.

In the words of the Office of the United States Trade Representative ( USTR ),” This framework will advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness for our economies. Through this program, the IPEF partners aim to lead to assistance, security, happiness, development and peace within the region”.

According to the USTR, this will be accomplished through” …negotiations on the following pillars: ( 1 ) Trade, ( 2 ) Supply Chains, ( 3 ) Clean Energy, Decarbonization, and Infrastructure, and ( 4 ) Tax and Anti-Corruption. Because of its flexibility, IPEF partners are not required to participate in all four pillars. Neither India nor China participated.

Then, in November 2023, Biden abandoned the IPEF trade pillar. And as a result, Trump, the new president, intends to raise tariffs across the board as well.

Robert Lighthizer, a former US trade representative who served under the first Trump administration and is now expected to serve under the second, outlined the bipartisan US embrace of protectionism in an essay that the Financial Times published on November 1:

” In the last three decades, millions of jobs have been lost, many of which are highly paid in the manufacturing sector. We have seen median wages stagnate…. Communities across America have been destroyed … We have run up giant&nbsp, trade deficits every year for decades. We are losing the future innovation that comes with manufacturing because of this, which sends trillions of dollars of our wealth overseas.

After distinguishing nations that “adopt industrial policies that are designed to increase their standard of living from those that adhere to free trade,” Lighthizer comes to the conclusion that” countries that consistently run large surpluses are the protectionists in the global economy.” Others, like the US, that run perennial huge trade deficits are the victims”.

Never mind that outsourcing to low-cost foreign suppliers has long been a key factor in the rise in economic growth and the rise in living standards in Germany, Japan, South Korea, China, and other nations.

Additionally, the US itself prospered for the majority of its history and established its own industrial base behind a wall of tariffs as high as 40 %. And unlike quotas and sanctions, tariffs are a market-based instrument that simply change price incentives. In any case, Trump has decided to change, and other nations must follow suit.

India has the world’s fifth-largest national economy in US dollar terms, ranking between Japan and the UK, but the third-largest in purchasing power parity terms, behind only China and the US. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts a 6.9 % increase in GDP for all of them this year, and it is outgrowing them all.

If participating in regional trade agreements gave its own companies comparable access to new markets, India might eventually replace it as a source of demand with more than four times the population of the US.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Lahore smog: Pollution hits record levels in Pakistan city

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Reuters Young boy is setting up a fishing trap, with the bridge over the River Ravi in the background, amid smog in LahoreReuters

Smog starts slower.

At first, you cannot see it but you can taste it. It smells like something is burning. And the heat falls, the intensity increases.

Then the town and you’re encircled by smoke and fog. You can see it right then. You are walking through the dust, a wet roof of it hanging behind.

You will immediately inhale the bitter air if you do n’t wear a mask or take it off for a moment.

Your mouth may start to itch and hurt. As it gets worse, you start sneezing and coughing. But it’s worse for another: babies, the elderly, those with respiration problems. The facilities are aware of the influx’s impact.

Everything above 300 is regarded as harmful, and Lahore and its 13 million inhabitants have been choking for a year.

Also in a city that experiences dust at this time every year, Pakistani officials have had to work overtime to deal with the crisis.

As part of a so-called “green shutdown,” which has also banned motorbike rickshaws, big vehicles, and motorbike parking from hot spot areas, schools are closed, workers are told to stay home, and residents are urged to stay inside.

By the end of the week, the Punjab province’s largest industry had been declared closed for all time on Saturday and by the close of the week. Parks and animals have also been shut until 17 November.

The problem, according to Nasa professor Pawan Gupta, is that waste levels in the town “typically peak in late November and December”.

” So this is just beginning. He warned that we probably wo n’t have the worst days of pollution until next year.

The dust that has enveloped Lahore, in Pakistan’s Punjab province, can be seen from area- when you part of the cause.

The area between Delhi, India’s capital, and Lahore, Pakistan, is characterized by a heavy layer of dust and a number of fires in its vicinity.

The same photo, six weeks earlier, shows obvious skies and- critically- far fewer fires.

The fires that farmers in Pakistan and India produce are a major contributor to the dust because they quickly clear their fields to prepare for the next crop.

Reuters A farmer walks next to burning stubble in a rice field at a village in Karnal, Haryana Reuters

This time, Nasa estimates it will matter “between 15, 500 and 18, 500 burns”, according to Hiren Jethva, a senior studies professor at Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Center and Morgan State University, higher than most times.

According to Pakistan’s environment protection specialists, around 30 % of Lahore’s dust comes from across the frontier in India. In an effort to address the problem, the American government attempted to resolve the issue by double the fines issued this year for farmers caught with stubble burning.

However, the releases of Lahore’s five million motorcycles and tens of other vehicles contribute to the city’s air pollution. On Friday, Lahore’s higher court identified large customers emissions as the main cause of the dust, according to the Associated Press of Pakistan.

Then there are the city’s fringes ‘ industries, such as the coal-fired brick kilns, which add even more pollutants to the air.

And in the last month of the year, it all comes together with Tibet’s frosty air, creating the dust that is already covering the area.

Getty A vendor carries a bucket of radishes in Lahore Getty
EPA A man rides a bike amid heavy smog in Lahore, PakistanEPA

It is obvious that people are tired from the poisonous atmosphere.

According to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s ( EPA ) Air Quality Index ( AQI), a value of 50 or below indicates good air quality, while a value above 300 signals Hazardous air quality.

According to WHO recommendations, PM2.5 levels may remain below five on average.

Abid Omar, chairman of Pakistan’s Air Quality Initiative, which collects data from 143 heat quality panels across the country, says the observations in Peshawar “have hit beyond indicator on every day in November”.

” Some areas in Lahore have exceeded 1, 000″, he says, adding:” On Thursday we had one reading of 1, 917 on the AQI level”.

Getty Images A vendor transports food items on his bicycle cart along a road engulfed in smog in Lahore Getty Images

By Tuesday, it was widely reported 900 persons had been admitted to hospital in Lahore with breathing problems.

” More and more people are coming with issues of asthma, itchy necks and coughing”, says Dr Irfan Malik, a cardiologist at one of the biggest facilities in Lahore.

He has now observed a rise in respiratory tract illnesses, which is “particularly worrying because the winter season has not yet experienced our second cold wave.”

Sadia Kashif, a native of Lahore, is a continuous concern about the risk.

” Like every family, I want to see my kids run and play without fearing pollutants”, she tells the BBC.

The painful reminder that our surroundings has turned out to be extremely toxic is what I see my kids struggling with these days with coughs and respiration issues.

But the recent “green shutdown” has left her disappointed.

According to Kashif, “it is simple for the authorities to shut down schools rather than take serious action to address the crisis.”

Getty Labourers work at a brick kiln engulfed in smogGetty

For years, officials have struggled to find a solution to Lahore’s waste problem.

The government anticipates a break from short-term changes, but claims that long-term fixes, like improving public transportation, does require time.

In the interim, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz announced this week that she intends to publish a notice to her American rival inviting them to join in” weather diplomacy” because it affects both regions. According to Delhi, Pakistan has not yet heard from them regarding the matter.

Getty Water is sprayed from a truck in Lahore Getty

Omar argues that weather pollution is a frequent problem rather than a seasonal problem.

He points out that” Lahore is much more poisoned than Delhi, with waste episodes that last longer and accomplish higher mountains.”

And it is getting worse, he believes. According to his own analysis of the data, the level of pollution in October increased by 25 % over the previous year.

He contends that both sides of the border needed to resolve the issue quickly.

The path to cleaner air is clear, but neither India nor Pakistan’s current plans have done enough to substantially lessen waste.

He is skeptical about the potential shift in the near future as a result.

” I tell people, blue skies are an indication of great governance”, Omar says.

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