Govt support to make ‘pla ra’ sauce from blackchin tilapia

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PUBLISHED: 7 Oct 2024 at 17: 22

Blackchin tilapia.
Blackchin fishes.

The Department of Fisheries is developing “nam army ra,” or&nbsp, fermented seafood sauce, in order to eliminate blackchin fish from Thailand’s waters.

The office will work with local populations in affected areas to turn blackchin fish into the common eastern spice in an effort to stop the spread of the invasive types, which threatens commercially valuable bass stocks in at least nine provinces, according to department head Bancha Sukkaew.

He claimed that this is in line with Akkara Prompow, the deputy minister of agriculture and cooperatives ,’s recommendation that the department take proactive measures to lessen the impact of the invasive fish on the economies of the affected regions.

The plan, he said, aims to remove at least 200, 000 kg of blackchin fish from lakes in Chumphon, Phetchaburi, Samut Prakan, Samut Songkhram, Prachin Buri, Ratchaburi, Chon Buri, Rayong and Nonthaburi regions.

The tools needed to make army baba will each get 245,000 baht from the sign-up communities. In total, the department may manage 4.9 million ringgit to the system, said Mr Bancha. Twenty populations had signed off, to date.

Phichaya Chainak, chairman of the Fisheriees Industrial Technology, Research and Development Division (FTDD), said spiced fish items, such as trained army baba and powdered army ra, are not only commonly consumed in Thailand, but also exported to markets in different Asean countries, China, the European Union, the Middle East and the United States.

” Turning blackchin fish into na pla baba will not only help control the spread of the aggressive seafood, but also enhance local economies and encourage community wedding,” said Ms. Phichaya.

Bancha, the head of the department, expressed confidence that this program will be a successful strategy to stop the spread of alien species and increase the value of native fish products while encouraging regional economic growth.

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Xi knows what it takes to sustain China’s rally – Asia Times

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Last year, as Chinese shares produced their biggest obtain since 2015, Lu Ting, general China analyst at Nomura Holdings, was warning investors not to forget another, more tragic memory from that same time.

The risk of repeating the amazing boom and bust of 2015 was fall quickly in the coming months, Lu information.

Lu adds that in a worst-case situation,” a stock market madness had been followed by a fall, similar to what happened in 2015″. He continues,” We wish Beijing could be more calm, while investors might still be Sure to partake in the growth for the time being.”

But alcoholism does appear to be returning, and more quickly. Though perhaps not Lu’s” accident” situation, family names like JPMorgan Asset Management, HSBC Global Private Banking and Invesco Ltd. are also advising precaution. Invesco, for one, worries coast stocks are “really overvalued”.

This is very questionable, of course. Consider the financial giants Fidelity International, an investment company, among those who also see a lot of value in mainland shares after years of losses totaling many trillions of US dollars.

Goldman Sachs Group, to. If the government fulfills its promise regarding stimulus measures, the Wall Street giant now has an overweight view of mainland shares with a 15-20 % potential for growth.

Current policy decisions by Beijing, according to Goldman strategist Tim Moe, “have led the marketplace to think that policy makers have become more concerned about taking enough action to reduce left-tail growth risk,” the market believes.

BlackRock has not reaffirmed its bearish position on Chinese stocks in the past. In light of how attractive prices had become in relation to peers in the developed-market, as its managers wrote on October 1:” We see room to turn quietly big Chinese shares in the near term.”

Despite this, Xi Jinping’s state had continue to pay attention to the fact that foreign investors have debated how much China has actually advanced since 2015. Shanghai stock lost a second of their value in just three months in that year. Beijing’s response last week to plunging shares was n’t nearly as overwhelming as after the July 2015 stumble.

A week ago, the People’s Bank of China cut borrowing costs, slashed businesses ‘ supply need numbers, reduced loan rates and unveiled new market-support resources to put a floor under share prices. Additionally, proposals for strong fiscal stimulus measures are being considered.

In the days that followed, Chinese stocks skyrocketed. Some sobriety had returned by the week’s end and into Monday, though, as traders began to wonder how many things Xi’s team had learned from 2015.

More troubling, is perhaps what they did n’t. In other words, addressing the symptoms of China’s challenges with waves of liquidity is no substitute for supply-side reforms that address the underlying issues.

In China, circa 2024, the biggest ailment is a property crisis that Xi’s reform team has yet to end. Some economists believe that the fallout has hampered Asia’s largest economy, which has since been deflating this year, and that it is at risk of repeating Japan’s mistakes from the 1990s.

The most obvious lesson is not to focus more on short-term stimulus than structural improvements that improve competition, boost competition, and lower the risk of boom-bust cycles.

The 2015 episode saw something of a whole-of-government response to plunging shares. China Inc. at the time launched waves of state funds into the market, halted trading in thousands of businesses, discontinued all initial public offerings, and made it possible for mainlanders to pledge homes as collateral on margin loans. It even rushed out buzzy marketing campaigns to encourage stock-buying as a form of&nbsp, patriotism.

Although the response did work for some time, it was in opposition to Xi’s pledge to allow market forces to influence economic and financial policy decisions.

Since then, this treating-symptoms-over-reforms pattern has played out too many times for comfort. All of which explains why investors are concerned that using state-friendly funds to buy stocks and save money could actually go wrong.

In consequence, it is possible to make valid arguments that too frequently initiatives to promote the private sector, improve transparency, or improve corporate governance have failed to achieve the same results.

Only time will tell if Xi’s most recent actions in support of falling stock prices could also thaw out the reform process. However, Xi’s Communist Party ca n’t afford to fail in this most recent bull run for Chinese shares.

Lu’s case at Nomura is that nearly four years of turmoil in the property sector, made worse by Covid-19 lockdowns, has exacerbated troubles with rising local government debt. These pre-existing issues led to trade disputes between the US and Europe, and a flaming Middle East.

” While investors might still be OK to indulge in the boom for now, a more sober assessment is required”, Lu says.

What’s needed, say economists like Michael Pettis, senior fellow at Carnegie China, is “rebalancing” efforts that mark a decisive” shift in the economic model” to “reverse decades of explicit and implicit transfers in which households have subsidized investment and production”. And as Pettis views it, Xi’s latest fiscal effort “is n’t really part of a real structural rebalancing”.

The problem, Pettis adds, is that if China does n’t upend its growth model, “imbalances will continue to build”, meaning the nation “risks facing the same problem in the future as it does now, only without a clean central-government balance sheet to help it manage potential disruptions”.

It’s possible to end this cycle decisively. Particularly in view of the party’s most recent policy conclaves, including July’s closely watched” Third Plenum”. Xi and Premier Li Qiang showed once more that they fully comprehend what must be done to boost China’s economy, increase competition, and boost productivity.

Among the signals that were music to investors ‘ ears were pledges to: “unswervingly encourage” the private sector, pivot to “high-quality development“, accelerate” Chinese-style modernization”, champion “innovative vitality”, and “actively expand domestic demand”.

It’s no small thing that the Plenum communique” for the first time mentions carbon reduction,” says Belinda Schäpe, China policy analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. This elevates China’s commitment to reducing emissions and tackling climate change&nbsp, to a new level”.

Missing, though, has been urgent implementation since. That includes rebalancing the growth engines, reducing the influence of ineffective state-owned enterprises that still control the economy and financial imbalances caused by falling real estate values to struggling municipalities struggling with mounting debts.

To grease the skids for these and other disruptive reforms, says economist Brad&nbsp, Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Beijing must overcome its aversion to fiscal pump-priming.

” The needed reforms to China’s central government center around freeing itself from the set of largely self-imposed constraints”, Setser says. ” Such constraints have limited its ability to use its considerable fiscal space to help China sort out its current bind: a shrinking property sector and falling household confidence.”

According to Setser,” the central government has ample room to ensure that the property developers deliver on pre-sales– or provide a refund… and to expand the provision of social insurance while lowering regressive taxes.” Even if that results in a larger central government deficit, the central government still has the ability to change the revenue-sharing formulas to support the troubled provincial governments.

Setser goes on to say that if China’s central government had fiscal space and used it to give households more freedom to spend money, it might be able to recover from the country’s property slump on its own, without relying even more on exports.

A significant policy push also needs to include efforts to create bigger, more dynamic social safety nets to encourage households to spend less and save more.

Xi has repeatedly demonstrated that he is aware of how to create a more creative, productive, and market-friendly China. His team simply needs to act or risk paying the price for yet another deceitful global investor.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Can China’s stimulus blitz fix its flagging economy? – Asia Times

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Pan Gongsheng, the government of China’s northern bank, announced a raft of methods on September 24 aimed at boosting the government’s flagging economy. Problems that China might not meet its unique 5 % annual growth specific were the focus of the decision, which came a week before the 75th anniversary of communist party rule.

The amount of money reserves that professional businesses are required to include as deposits with the central bank was reduced by 0.5 % in the stimulus package. This should open up roughly 1 trillion renminbi for fresh borrowing. Pan predicted that by 2024, the amount could be lowered by another 0.25 to 0.5 %.

Additionally, the central bank’s lending rate to commercial banks has decreased by 0.2 % percentage points. Pan gave the impression that this would be followed by a 20 to 25 schedule point cut in the interest rate charged to consumers with the best credit scores.

The central bank has reduced the deposit requirement for people looking to purchase a second home from 25 % to 15 % in an effort to stop the downward trend that saw house prices fall by their highest rate in nine years in August.

As investors anticipate a rise in the demand for goods and services, payment expansion may have a positive impact on the price of commodities and the financial markets. And, following the kills of fresh methods, this is exactly what we have seen.

China’s key share score surged by more than 4 % within days of the main company’s statement, enjoying its best single-day rally in 16 years. And this was followed by an over 1 % increase in the standard fuel price. Since then, sentiment has remained positive, with Chinese securities increasing by about 20 % over the five days that followed.

Expansionary plans do, but, even come with risks. Since 2021, China’s housing market has been in crisis as a result of the government’s restrictions on the amount of money developers can acquire, which has caused many developers to default on their debts. Making significant borrowing costs could rekindle a surge in sales and values, causing a new housing bubble.

But it could be a thus before China’s house industry starts to burn. House costs in China are falling rapidly and there’s lots of extra inventory. According to Goldman Sachs, the government may need to invest more than 15 trillion yuan to resolve the sector’s issues, which is significantly more than the new stimulus campaign can deliver on its own.

It is difficult to predict the long-term effects of the main bank’s new financial deal. It will likely take a year or two before any actual results start to appear. But, at least in theory, the growth of private credit that will be triggered by the main bank’s lending rate cut, as well as the related banking stimulus, may spread to the wider economy.

In China, there are countless houses that have not been sold. &nbsp, Photo: Andres Martinez Casares / EPA via The Talk

This may restore building and construction activities, increase customer spending, and boost demand for capital goods. This might later encourage China to move toward home demand-driven growth rather than export-dependent growth.

China’s economic miracle has traditionally been based on export growth, which reached their highest level in 2006, when exports accounted for 36 % of GDP. This percentage has come down considerably since then, falling to 19.7 % in 2023, but it still remains large relative to similar markets. In 2022, the export-to-GDP amount in the US, for example, was 11.6 %.

Due to this, China is especially vulnerable to political shocks like the US’s decision to impose new tariffs on imports of Taiwanese electric vehicles, thermal products, and batteries.

The tariffs have decreased the need for Chinese imports in the US business, but they have not undermined China’s standing in global supply chains. The need, especially for Chinese electrical vehicles in the US, was, certainly now very small.

The prospect is not so dark

China’s market is undergoing turmoil. However, China has consistently outperformed the rest of the world since 1990 in terms of GDP progress, and its financial outlook is still largely positive.

In fact, China’s 5 % monthly development goal is still much higher than that of the majority of other nations. Other than the US, growth is anticipated to continue at a G7-level annual rate of 2 %.

Because these nations contribute a sizable portion to China’s exports, the country’s economy did still struggle as a result of the country’s poor economic outlook. In the upcoming years, China may gain more from equipment jobs spearheaded by the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Development Bank.

These facilities projects are connecting China with resource-rich core Asian countries through highways, railways, oil pipelines and power systems. In 2023, China and Kazakhstan signed a lucrative oil offer agreement. And China now accounts for the majority of Mongolia’s metal exports, which increased by approximately 3 % between 2023 and 2024.

China may gain from bilateral trade with other major emerging markets, including Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia. Over recent decades, China has developed closer business ties with these states and has led efforts to say six novel people – Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, the UAE and Ethiopia– at the start of 2025.

We are eager to find out what effect the new measures from the central bank will have. However, a positive impact on China’s economic outlook would be a positive influence on the rest of the world’s economic outlook and consumer confidence.

Sambit Bhattacharyya is professor of economics, University of Sussex Business School, University of Sussex

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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EU to vote on import taxes on Chinese electric cars

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Later, a crucial European Union ( EU) vote is scheduled to be held to decide whether to impose high taxes on China’s imports of electric vehicles.

The introduction of tariffs is intended to stop what EU officials believe are cruel Chinese-state subsidies for its own cars, and to guard the European car industry from being hampered by it.

If EU members support the proposals, charging rates of up to 45 % could be applied to electric vehicles made in China for the next five years. However, there have been concerns that this would raise electric vehicle ( EV ) prices for buyers.

The selection also runs the risk of stoking a trade war between Beijing, which has criticized the levies as being unfair.

China has relied on high-tech goods to revive its sluggish economy, and the EU is the biggest international marketplace for the nation’s electrical car industry.

Over the past 20 years, China’s domestic vehicle industry has grown rapidly, and its car brands have begun entering foreign markets, posing as a threat to their own businesses as a result of the EU’s concern that they will be able to compete with the lower prices.

In the summer, the EU imposed trade tariffs of various degrees on various Chinese manufacturers, but Friday’s vote will determine whether they are implemented.

The costs were determined based on estimates of the amount of Chinese state aid each company has received as a result of an EU research. The German Commission established specific tasks for the three main Chinese electric vehicle companies: SAIC, BYD, and Geely.

Statistics show that in August this year, EU registrations of battery-electric cars fell by 43.9 % from a month earlier.

Demand for new electric automobiles in the UK reached a new report, but sales, according to the business system, were primarily driven by business deals and significant manufacturer discounts.

Union people remain divided on taxes. Germany, whose car-manufacturing market is heavily reliant on exports to China, is doubtful to vote in favour of them.

European carmakers have been outspoken in opposition. Ford has said they are” the wrong method”.

But, France, Greece, Italy and Poland are likely to vote in favour of the transfer fees. The EU’s plan can only be withdrawn if a qualified majority of the 15 members cast a ballot against it.

Regardless of the outcome of the vote, SAIC, which owns the MG company, announced on Friday that it would not modify the price tags of its electric cars this time.

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Not your grandfather’s NATO – Asia Times

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The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, when a simple protective empire, now faces a crisis.

Nowadays, NATO is a huge global alliance of 32 countries, much larger and covering significantly more territory than the initial gathering of 12 countries. In raw numbers, it has a potential military force of 3.5 million people and covers 25.07 million square kilometers ( 15.58 million square miles ) of territory.

Although that would seem like a lot, NATO’s strength and capability depend on the United States for a variety of factors. This was true from the start, and it remains so now. First an American-led anti-Communist protective empire, NATO has morphed into a US-led power union that is forcefully expanding.

Despite the statements in the NATO Treaty, the empire no more coordinates with the UN ( at least consistently ).

Despite attempts to strengthen its presence in Poland, Romania and Estonia, the alliance faces important issues:

  • a crucial lack of weapons,
  • armed troops that are unknown and understaffed,
  • a US existence that is still largely military.

Ukraine

The chances of Ukraine surviving Russian problems seem slim despite NATO’s expansion and ongoing arms distribution.

Russia has also discovered a lot about using its weather defenses and electrical jamming capabilities to combat NATO weapons. There is no reason to believe that NATO could do any better in Ukraine than the Russians because the shelves in the United States are considerably clear as a result of the issue.

NATO is also vehement about Ukraine and its attitude toward Russia. Some non-factors such as the European Union are even worse arguments. However, the new NATO is dealing with a grim state in Ukraine and the possibility of a wider German conflict. Does NATO cross the Rubicon of fight, or get some hotel with its sworn army, Russia?

The danger

It is no small problem that the empire is no longer focused on socialism as a risk but, instead, on Russia as a menace to Europe ( and, by expansion, to the United States ). Washington is in a hard operational and military location because of its commitment to Europe in order to combat China’s much bigger threat.

However, it appears that US politicians favor dealing with the Russian danger, perhaps because it guarantees US supremacy in European politics and advances American interests.

If Russia were a real threat, and if the Europeans were truly committed to their own defence, then Europe was easily assemble a force that was at least as large as something Russia could summon.

Europe has a community of more than 700 million. By comparison, Russia has a much smaller population ( 144.2 million ), a much smaller economy and an army of around 470, 000 soldiers. ( The US Army numbers around 452, 000 active-duty personnel ).

The unique risk

In 1949, Washington adopted the NATO Treaty. The Russians had generally completed their work of establishing Communist governments in Eastern Europe, the Berlin Airlift was still in progress, and Europe was under assault from soaring home communism.

The US President signs the NATO Treaty, Harry S. Truman.

The Soviet Union detonated its first atomic bomb ( Joe-1-Joe Stalin ), ending the US atomic monopoly four months after the Treaty was signed.

The original members did not contain Germany, Turkey, Greece or Spain. Greece and Turkey would join in 1952, Spain only in 1982, well after dictator ( Caudillo ) Francisco Franco’s death in 1975.

Germany was divided and occupied. The Federal Republic of Germany ( FRG ) under allied occupation ( US, UK, and France ) was declared in May 1949, but it remained an occupied area until 1955. In May of that year, the FRG joined NATO. In reply, Russian-occupied East Germany became a status on October 7, 1949.

It may meet the Warsaw Pact, or Warsaw Treaty Organization, Russia’s response to NATO founded on May 14, 1955. The Cold War was characterized by the Warsaw Pact and NATO until 1991, when the USSR was overthrown.

NATO was a significant component of a successful initiative the US launched.

  • Following World War II, restore Europe.
  • end the domestic Communist threat in some European countries ( Greece, Italy ),
  • protect the divided town of Berlin and its allies.
  • produce strong defenses in Europe against any danger from the Soviets.

In consequence, the US established a continuous military presence in Europe, including significant bases in Italy, the UK, and Germany.

The NATO order, which was led by General Dwight D Eisenhower from April 1951 to May 1952, was based in Belgium.

Post 5

The NATO Treaty defines the alliance as defensive. The key provision, Post 5, states:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Post 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Post 5 was only used once, on September 12, 2001, a day after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States. A decision was reached, after some controversy, by the North Atlantic Council, the political decision-making part of NATO. NATO carried out a program called Eagle Assist, sending NATO AWACS aircraft to patrol US skies. Although a symbol of support, NATO’s intervention was militarily largely meaningless. What NATO AWACS planes could do in US airspace was never explained.

NATO itself, but, has been involved in a number of activities that used military power – in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Libya. NATO even is directly involved in Ukraine, though not with earth forces.

The growing Soviet risk

After its foundation, NATO concentrated on preventing a Russian invasion of Western Europe, primarily focused on West Germany. American strategists identified the” Fulda Gap,” a coastal hall running south from the German state of Thuringia to Frankfurt am Main, as a potential way for a Russian invasion of the British occupation area from the eastern sector occupied by the Soviet Union, as a result of the efforts of NATO strategists and outside martial experts.

Western strategists were concerned that the US and its NATO allies lacked the armor and artillery needed to stop a Russian attack as the USSR strengthened its forces in the 1970s and 1980s.

Two novels reflect some of this emphasis on the Russian threat. One, written by Sir James Hacket, was” The Untold Story: The Third World War” ( 1978 ). The other was Tom Clancy and Larry Bond ‘s&nbsp,” Red Storm Rising&nbsp, ( 1986 ).

In 1981, KGB chairman Yuri Andropov, in a then-secret speech, said it was critical that Russia” not miss the military preparations of the enemy, its preparations for a nuclear strike, and not miss the real risk of the outbreak of war.”

Andropov claimed that NATO was preparing a first strike on the Soviet Union under the guise of two NATO exercises, Autumn Forge 83 and Able Archer 83.

Defense Minister Dimitry Ustinov stated to the Politburo that the NATO exercises were “increasingly difficult to distinguish from a real deployment of armed forces for aggression.”

Russia appears to have had a preemptive attack on the USSR that was focused on nuclear weapons, just as the US and NATO were concerned about a Russian attack. While Russia and the United States would engage in proxy conflicts over the Cold War Years ( Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, the Middle East ), general war in Europe did not happen.

Collapse of the USSR

In October 1985, Gorbachev, on a visit to Paris, met with Francoise Mitterrand, the French president. He claimed that Russia was a Third World nation with nuclear weapons. In 1991, his insight was demonstrated. The USSR ceased to exist on December 26 by the Soviet of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union, according to Declaration No 142-.

During Gorbachev’s working trip to France, French President François Mitterrand and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev formally reaffirmed their agreement on cooperation and consent.

With the collapse of the USSR, Russian power was radically downsized. The infamous Soviet military construction from the 1980s, which had ruined the Russian economy, was now rusting away.

Nuclear submarines slowly sank in their berths in the port as they were abandoned. Production in defensible factories stopped, and workers were not compensated. For the next 15 years, Russia would be on its heels, struggling to reinvent itself. The Warsaw Pact disappeared.

Russia is now a dysfunctional state with nuclear weapons. The Russian army itself was disintegrating. Russian military equipment was available for purchase in Eastern European flea markets to make a profit.

The West was concerned about former Soviet scientists leaving their jobs as rogue states, worried about rotting nuclear submarines and unsafe nuclear power plants, and unsure about who held the office, and overall whether Russia was a stable nation.

Meanwhile, what remained in Russia was mired in corruption. Even as Russia slowly regained its footing, corruption throughout the country continued, including in the military.

As the Russian military is conducting anti-corruption investigations, arrests, and firings as the country’s leadership tries to improve the military’s leadership and the release of military-grade weapons and supplies, according to the writing of this article.

Post-Soviet NATO expansion

When the Soviet Union collapsed, NATO still regarded Russia as an existential challenge.

That challenge, in the NATO view, took on added gravitas after Russia sent troops into Georgia ( 2008 ) and Ukraine ( 2014 and 2022 ). It is easy to overlook the fact that NATO was actively supporting NATO in both Georgia and Ukraine, including trying to oust the Russians out.

Today, all NATO military exercises, troop deployments, and operations are geared toward halting a Russian attack. NATO has reinforced its troop deployments and bases to protect the Baltic states (especially Estonia, which NATO sees as vulnerable ), Poland and Romania.

While the USSR was dissolving, NATO started an unprecedented round of expansion. The newly independent states needed defense assistance while there was little to worry about in 1991 and the following years.

Most had been utterly dependent on Russian weapons, and these would no longer be forthcoming. Moreover, they wanted to be protected. While the Russians from time to time complained, and on occasion were given assurances that proved false, NATO expanded.

Georgia and Ukraine will be able to join NATO in the future, NATO has also started programs. The offer came with NATO advisors and specialists, weapons and intelligence support.

Russian leaders saw the attempts as threats, especially when it came to Ukraine. Along with the EU, NATO has pressed on Ukraine to ally itself with Russia and join Europe. Russia, for its part, saw the Ukrainian NATO as a serious threat to Russian security.

Beyond its defensive mandate, the alliance took an aggressive stance in addition to the expansion of NATO. That includes operations in Afghanistan’s International Security Assistance Force ( ISAF ), the Bosnia and Herzegovina Implementation Force ( IFOR ), Kosovo Force ( KFOR ) and, in Libya, Operation Unified Protector.

The US tried to get NATO to support the Iraq war ( 2003 ) but could not, with Turkey strongly opposed. Instead, the US created a” Coalition of the Willing” ( Multinational Force, Iraq ) with troops from the US, Australia, UK and Poland. In order to support stabilization efforts, other countries would send contingents to Iraq.

Ukraine again

NATO’s future is inextricably linked to Ukraine. The defense minister of Ukraine is working hard to persuade Washington to give Ukraine long-range weapons to attack Russian territory, particularly Moscow and St. Petersburg, as the conflict nears an end point with the potential that Kiev will be forced to deal with Moscow.

The Ukrainians are well aware that the Ukraine war will result in even more bloody Russian attacks if Washington fully cooperates. They are hoping that this will entice NATO and allow them to take over the front line from Ukraine.

In an undisclosed location in Ukraine, a Russian howitzer is fired at Ukrainian positions. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service

The war would quickly spread to Europe if NATO actually sent troops or used NATO air force to support Russian operations in Ukraine.

This vital resource for Ukraine would put NATO in the path of a storm, to which it has already contributed in numerous ways. Could NATO be entangled in a conflict that will threaten European cities, military installations, and infrastructure?

The Russians have not taken the bait other than continuing to put pressure on Ukraine’s army ( AFU) despite the Ukrainian push into the Kursk region of Russia and extensive drone attacks on Russia including the shelling of civilians in Belgorod. Most reports are that Ukraine’s army is overstretched, short on manpower and starting to crack.

What comes next, then?

Stephen Bryen served as the deputy undersecretary of defense for policy and the staff director of a subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. &nbsp,

This&nbsp, article originally appeared in InFocus Magazine, published by the Jewish Policy Center in Washington, DC. It is republished with permission.

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As communist China turns 75 can Xi fix its economy?

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Getty Images People walk past a giant screen outside a shopping mall which displays a sign marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, on the third day of a week-long National Day holidays in Beijing on 3 October, 2024.Getty Images

The ruling Communist Party unveiled a number of methods to boost China’s struggling economy as it prepared to observe its Golden Week trip and commemorate its 75th anniversary.

The plans included support for the country’s crisis-hit home business, support for the investment industry, money handouts for the weak and more government spending.

Following the announcements, stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong experienced report benefits.

However, economists caution that the policies may not be sufficient to solve China’s financial difficulties.

Some of the new measures announced by the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) on 24 September took direct aim at the country’s beaten-down stock market.

The new tools included funding worth 800bn yuan ($ 114bn, £85.6bn ) that can be borrowed by insurers, brokers and asset managers to buy shares.

Pan Gongsheng, the governor, added that the central banks had assistance listed companies that wanted to buy back their own shares. He also announced plans to lower borrowing costs and allow banks to increase their financing.

Only two days after the PBOC’s news, Xi Jinping chaired a shock economy-focused conference of the country’s best officials, known as the Politburo.

Authorities made the promise to increase government spending to help the economy.

The standard Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 8 % on Monday, the day before China began its weeklong vacation, making it its best day since the global financial crisis of 2008, when it reached its peak. The action marked the end of a 20 % increase over the course of the previous five days of protest.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong increased by over 6 % the day after businesses closed on the island.

” Buyers loved the presentations”, China researcher, Bill Bishop said.

Mr. Xi has more pressing problems to address than just popping vodka lids, which investors may have had.

Getty Images China's President Xi Jinping speaks during a National Day reception on the eve of the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.Getty Images

With the 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s establishment, The People’s Republic has been in existence for 74 years. Only the other big socialist sate, the Soviet Union, has since fallen.

The officials of China’s leaders have long been concerned about avoiding the death of the Soviet Union, according to Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.

At the forefront of officials’ minds will be boosting confidence in the broader economy amid growing concerns that it may miss its own 5% annual growth target.

” In China goals must be met, by any means necessary”, said Yuen Yuen Ang, professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University.

The management problems that failing to meet them in 2024 may cause a slow-growth and low-confidence loop.

The decline in the nation’s property market, which started three years ago, has been one of the major drags on the second-largest economy in the world.

The lately unveiled stimulus package targeted the real estate sector in addition to laws designed to boost companies.

It includes steps to boost bank financing, lower loan rates, and lower the minimum down payment requirements for first-time home buyers.

However, some people question whether these actions will be sufficient to stabilize the housing industry.

” Those procedures are delightful but unlikely to move the needle many in isolation”, said Harry Murphy Cruise, an analyst at Moody’s Analytics.

” China’s weakness stems from a crisis of confidence, not one of credit, firms and families do n’t want to borrow, regardless of how cheap it is to do so”.

Leaders pledged to use state funds to increase economic growth at the Politburo program and go beyond the interest rate reductions.

However, the officials provided much information about the size and scope of government spending aside from establishing priorities like stabilizing the housing market, encouraging usage, and boosting employment.

” If the fiscal signal fall short of market expectations, owners could be disappointed”, warned Qian Wang, chief economist for the Asia Pacific region at Vanguard.

” In contrast, cyclical plan signal does not correct the structural issues”, Ms Wang noted, hinting that without deeper changes the difficulties China’s economy experience will not go away.

Economics believe that the real estate market’s deepening issues are essential to rebalancing the business as a whole.

The most expensive expenditure is in real estate, and falling home prices have contributed to consumer confidence being sluggish.

” Ensuring the distribution of pre-sold but empty houses had been key”, said a word from Sophie Altermatt, an analyst with Julius Baer.

Governmental assistance for household incomes must move beyond one-off transfers and be provided by improved pension and social protection systems in order to boost domestic consumption on a green basis.

Getty Images Unfinished project of Evergrande Cultural Tourism City in Zhenjiang City, China.Getty Images

On the day of the 75th celebration, an editor in the state-controlled paper, People’s Daily, struck an cheerful voice, recognising that “while the journey back remains challenging, the potential is promising”.

According to the article, concepts created by President Xi such as “high-quality development” and “new productive forces” are key to unlocking that path to a better future.

The emphasis on those concepts is a result of Xi’s desire to shift from the traditional fast growth drivers, such as investment in property and infrastructure, to create a more balanced economy based on high-end industries.

The challenge China faces, according to Ms Ang, is that the “old and the new economies are deeply intertwined, if the old economy falters too quickly, it will inevitably hinder the rise of the new”.

The leadership has come to terms with this and is taking action accordingly.

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Chinese stocks cool down as investors check reality – Asia Times

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After a week-long rally, Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks returned on Thursday after economists were unable to accept the financial stimulus that the People’s Bank of China ( PBoC ) unveiled last week could put an end to China’s property crisis. &nbsp,

The Hang Seng Index, a benchmark of Hong Kong companies, fell 1.5 % to close at 22, 113 on Thursday. In the six trading days following the PBoC’s announcement of a number of monetary easing measures on September 24, the index increased by 4, 196 points, or 23 %. &nbsp,

Chinese property securities, which had gone over by 70-90 % over the past few years, even went on a rollercoaster ride in the past year.

Longfor Group decreased 9.5 % to HK$ 16.98 ( US$ 2.19 ) on Thursday after surging by 114 % in the previous six trading days. After increasing by 273 % from September 23 to October 2, Country Garden dropped 12.1 % on Thursday. &nbsp,

Shares of Agile Group were down 15.9 % to HK$ 1.64 on Thursday after a 353 % surge. China Vanke softened 1.2 % to HK$ 11.86 after a 163 % increase. &nbsp,

Since September 23, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 21 % to close at 3,335. Due to National Day breaks, the A-share marketplaces were closed the rest of the year. &nbsp,

According to an ordinary prediction made by 25 Foreign economists who were approached by Nikkei, China’s gross domestic product is then projected to increase by 4.5 to 5.5 % for the entire year of 2024. This is down from the previous survey that was conducted in July. &nbsp,

Of the 25 economics, 17 lowered their perspectives while nine maintained their prediction. According to Nikkei, the third quarter’s GDP growth rate for China was 4.6 %, compared to 4.9 % for the same period last year.

On September 24, the PBoC made its strategies to lower borrowing costs and increase financing to businesses. &nbsp,

In order to provide borrowers with an additional 1 trillion yuan ( US$ 143 billion ) of loans, it initially reduced Chinese banks ‘ reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points. Additionally, it decreased the reverse mortgage rate for 14 days by 10 base items, reaching 1.85 %.

A number of fiscal measures were introduced by the central government to encourage the desire part of the business. Additionally, it urged local institutions to rest their house laws to stop falling house prices. &nbsp,

According to academics at PGIM, previously known as Prudential Investment Management, the lowering of second home purchase restrictions “demonstrates some willingness to expand hands of residential real estate expense.” &nbsp,

” The intention is unlikely to revive real property to the point where it causes a private wealth consequence,” they claim. Instead, it’s likely to work to remove excess stock from the industry to prevent further decline in real estate prices. &nbsp,

The government’s financial easing and recently announced fiscal measures, including those involving child benefit support, some child benefit assistance, and pension reform initiatives, are expected to aid China in meeting its 5 % growth target over the coming year, according to PGIM economics. &nbsp,

They say that prior to last week’s announcements, China was growing at about 3 % annually, which is solidly below authorities ‘ stated annual growth target of 5 %. &nbsp,

” Despite&nbsp, the&nbsp, current&nbsp, surge&nbsp, in&nbsp, market&nbsp, enthusiasm, &nbsp, the&nbsp, lasting&nbsp, effects&nbsp, may have more coverage helps and take time to present,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief scholar in Asia Pacific region, Natixis CIB Research, says in a study review. The true test will be whether the financial underpinnings will change.

” China’s economy is now dealing with major issues&nbsp, such&nbsp, as&nbsp, persistently&nbsp, low&nbsp, prices, poor real&nbsp, estate&nbsp, costs, &nbsp, and&nbsp, declining record need,” she says”. Just after we&nbsp, see actual improvements in these areas may market confidence be completely restored.”

Limitations of stimuli

Some experts speculated that the PBoC’s price reductions may cause asset bubbles and lower margins for Chinese banks.

According to Duncan Innes-Ker, senior director of Fitch Wire at Fitch Ratings,” We expect bank net interest margins ( NIMs) to remain pressure-stricken in the second half of this year and the entire year of 2025.” Although rate reductions will improve asset quality, we also anticipate a moderate increase in the number of affected loans rated banks will have as a result of the slowdown in growth in 2025.

Besides, he says Fitch’s calculations show that outstanding bonds issued by local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ) increased by 3.1 % year-on-year in June 2024.

” We expect LGFV debts to continue to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower rate than the 8.8 % boost in 2024, “he adds. &nbsp,

A Beijing-based author claims in an article that the PBoC’s most recent price cut is a significant step to try to improve the Chinese market but it needs more time to evaluate whether or not it will work. Policy makers does take significant steps to stop an economic sluggishness while putting an emphasis on economic reform to achieve steady long-term growth.

He recommends that the government be aware that rate increases could lead to asset bubbles and raise systemic economic risks without actually causing a rise in corporate investment. &nbsp,

Read: China releases pleasant flood of market-friendly signal

Following Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

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Yen at 125 less black swan than gray under Ishiba – Asia Times

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Tokyo: With the yen looking set to skyrocket, the” Ishiba shock” ruining stock investors ‘ week may only just be beginning.

The research here, of course, is to the surprise poll of Shigeru Ishiba as Japan’s probable next prime minister. The veteran lawmaker, a self-described “lone wolf”, seemed to come out of nothing last week to best eight different candidates for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s management.

However, the real wonder may be how Ishiba’s long-held beliefs set the stage for an amazing yen protest.

For now, Ishiba, 67, is downplaying his taste for Bank of Japan price hikes and a stronger renminbi. As investors speculate that Ishiba might not be the feared financial hawk, the yen is falling this week. They’re good bad.

Obviously, Ishiba’s officials warned him that perhaps BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is bashful about more strengthening. Chances are, too, Ishiba’s inner circle is looking at slowing monetary conditions&nbsp, — and China’s brake — and realizing today might not be the day for more increases in borrowing costs.

However, Ishiba’s preferences for higher prices and a rising japanese are unlikely to hold back for very long. Since&nbsp, July 31, when the BOJ hiked short-term costs to their highest level since 2008, the renminbi has given up its sharp 2024 costs. In late June, it passed the 161 to the US level, the lowest in more than 37 times.

Since then, the dollar has rallied more than 9 %, dealing on October 3 at around 147 to the greenback. And as Ishiba transitions to the position of prime minister, there are good chances that the yen protest will push into even higher products. Could it go to 125 or higher? So do the problems about an” Ishiba shock” soon developing.

Second, Ishiba’s LDP may succeed at the September 27 snap election, the chances of which are good given the persistent turmoil among opposition events. BOJ representatives are likely to believe that Ishiba has their tails when he settles in and attempts to implement zero rates.

It’s Ishiba’s long-held conviction that the ultra-weak japanese is doing more harm than good. He told Reuters as late as August that” the Bank of Japan is on the right plan path to eventually coincide with a world with good interest rates.”

Ishiba continued,” We must realize the positive aspects of price increases, such as a property market rout, have been the focus right now, but we must understand their merits as higher interest rates may lower the costs of imports and create industry more competitive.”

The BOJ’s decision to raise prices to 0.2 % resulted in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average’s worst decline since October 1987, among other “aspects.” On Monday only, the Nikkei fell 5 % as investors assessed Ishiba’s expected economic policy mixture.

Yet it’s difficult to reject the reasoning underlying Ishiba’s take these. The argument is that 25 years of relentless exchange-rate exploitation have had a backseat, which some LDP heavyweights will acknowledge. Ishiba outshined by his surprise victory to gain the LDP election.

Sanae Takaichi, a senator, is one of them, who believes she is the natural heir to Shinzo Abe’s reflationary signal measures.

Takaichi stated on September 19 that” I think it would be terrible to raise interest rates right today.” She added that “what we’re seeing today is cost-push inflation. We must maintain economic plan until real income consistently rise.

The Ishiba believes that a quarter century of free money has stifled the need for the government to revamp labor markets, cut red tape, support a business growth, empower women, and stop the shift of economic power from Tokyo to Shanghai.

It also reduced stress on corporate CEOs to rebuild, develop and get great threats on new products, solutions and industries. It helps explain why Japan is 30th in productivity among the 38 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ).

Beginning in 2013, the BOJ supersized quantitative easing. By 2018, the BOJ’s balance plate had surpassed the size of Japan’s US$ 4.7 trillion in annual production due to the amount of government bonds and stocks it hoarded. The BOJ had to get an leave because of that purchasing spree, which has now fallen to Ueda.

The aggressive global market response to the BOJ’s&nbsp, July 31&nbsp, tightening has left Team Ueda gun-shy about further movements. However, the need to tighten monetary policy perhaps simply grow as inflation rises.

The problem, says Takeshi Yamaguchi, analyst at Morgan Stanley MUFG, is an “increasingly extreme scarcity at smaller non-manufacturers” that’s driving “further worsening in the work situation overall”.

The biggest give boost for workers in 33 years was scored by Japanese organisations earlier this year. It’s piece of Tokyo’s work over the last few years to generate a “virtuous cycle” of salary increases. The goal is to improve corporate profits to levels that encourage also fatter pay raises, which will in turn boost consumption and GDP.

However, if these increases are not followed by steps to improve overall output, they could lead to inflation. In August, Japan’s” core” consumer price index rose at a 2.8 % year-on-year rate, well above Tokyo’s 2 % target. It marked the third straight month of motion.

” Consequently, underlying inflation may … fast another rate climb by the Bank of Japan at its October meeting”, says Marcel Thieliant, Asia-Pacific scholar at Capital Economics.

Ishiba might provide the walk with the necessary political support. Ishiba’s main objection to the poor japanese is because he thinks it’s causing him to believe that both at home and abroad. It lowers families ‘ purchasing power, making Japan prone to imported inflation caused by higher commodity prices.

Some foreign investors, however, are confounded by a very developed market maintaining a developing-nation-like exchange-rate plan. Why does investors believe that the” Japan is up” tale is true this time if Japan Inc. is not ready to grow without history’s largest corporate welfare scheme?

Some economists predict that Ishiba may back off and force the political dynasty to pressure the BOJ to raise the yen. If thus, the Fumio Kishida government’s plans will continue to exist.

According to Masafumi Yamamoto, a strategist at Mizuho Securities, Ishiba’s” attitude on financial plan is thought to be the same as the Kishida administration, which usually respects the independence of the BOJ, and he is not constantly in favor of raising interest rates.” Therefore, it is likely that the opportunities for the yen to continue to rise are limited in the run-up to the new cabinet’s formation.

We think the most recent political developments in Japan still support a more gradual than accelerated JPY appreciation path, as suggested by UBS analysts in a note.

Strategist Yukio Ishizuki from Daiwa Securities acknowledges that” Ishiba’s comments over the weekend were trying to put out the fire of his hawkish image.”

Since then, says strategist&nbsp, Jeff Weniger at&nbsp, Wisdom Tree&nbsp, Asset Management,” things have settled down. Investors have come to the realization that even if the Fed Funds Rate wins the job, there will still be a yawning gap between the two nations ‘ cost of money.

The outlook of the US Federal Reserve is in fact a wildcard. ” The lack of clarity on how the easing cycle will unfold and the inverted yield curves”, are key challenges facing global markets, says&nbsp, Teresa Ho, a strategist at&nbsp, JPMorgan Chase &amp, Co.

This might explain why so many currency traders insist that the yen wo n’t deviate too far from the current levels. Hedge funds and other speculative entities have more than 66, 000 positions positioned on a rising yen, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ). That’s the most since October 2016.

The size of this position is largely due to the so-called “yen-carry trade,” which has resulted in Japan becoming the world’s top creditor nation by keeping rates at or close to zero since 1999.

Borrowing cheaply in&nbsp, yen &nbsp, and deploying those funds in higher-yielding assets around the globe became the most popular maneuver in finance. Bloomberg data puts the scale of the trade at about$ 4.4 trillion, a sum larger than India’s economy and roughly twice the size of Russia’s.

The global financial system would tremble and quake if the yen-carry trade sprang into chaos. However, a yen move toward 125 to the dollar would be less of a black swan than a gray one with Ishiba as the head of the market.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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