SINGAPORE: Popular Holdings ( PHL ) has been purchased and taken over by Hong Kong investment firm ZQ Capital. The” strategic ownership change” was announced in a press release on Wednesday( Nov 1 ), & nbsp, the Singapore-based company that publishes, distributes and retails books for both the educational andContinue Reading
As the United States and its allies learned when nations with 70 % of the world’s population rejected UN sanctions against Russia after February 2022, the Global South — with 85 % of its population — has retreated from the Western sphere of influence.
On October 27, 120 nations voted in favor of a UN General Assembly resolution that the United States opposed but which did not condemn Hamas’s invasion on Israel on October 7. The West learned this for the next time.
& nbsp: China’s expanding economic dominance in the developing world is by far the main cause of this tectonic shift in global politics.
Notably, China accomplished this with a full forward deployment of 200 soldiers( soldiers at its foundation in Djibouti ), in contrast to the US’s$ 7 trillion investment in the Global War on Terror over the previous 20 years. China has so far only used gentle authority, despite dire warnings from the US Defense Department and various think tank about its military interests in Eurasia.
Due to growing ties with Malaysia and Indonesia, the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia, and economic diplomacy in the Persian Gulf, China now exports more to the Muslim world($ 42 billion ) than the United States($ 38 billion ).
China’s export to the US increased to$ 40 billion per month in 2018 from simply$ 30 billion to nations with a majority of Muslims. China’s exports have increased significantly over the past five years, primarily from the Arab world and the Global South. China then exports as much to all developed markets as it does to the Global South nevertheless.
As a result of the Sinocentric inclusion of Asian trade and investment, Indonesia and Malaysia are China’s two biggest Muslim trading lovers.
Chinese imports have benefited greatly from the novel Silk Road across Asia. The former Soviet republics in Central Asia now import Chinese goods at a rate of almost$ 5 billion per month, up from about$ 2 billion in 2018. That has a security matrix, for sure: China decided it couldn’t rely on the US to put an end to jihadists on or near its borders after America’s careless withdrawal from Afghanistan, so it poured money into nearby economies.
Professor Zhang Weiwei of Fudan University told the” Observer” news website on November 3 that” the world has long entered the post-American era ,” and American strategists should pay close attention to him. This does not imply that America is no longer significant. The United States continues to play a significant role. It indicates that the United States is” going against the grain.”
Zhang compared US controls on tech exports to Jake Sullivan’s catchphrase,” little yard, higher fence ,” which he used to describe frog self-restraint in a well.
Zhang claimed that the United States” has isolated itself within this large fencing around a little garden.” Outside is the whole Global South, or non-Western world, which has the largest market, most solutions, and the greatest potential for development.
I went to a Huawei grow in Shenzhen next July. There are now only 15 workers per column, compared to the 80 workers there previously. The plant now produces 1, 800 5G base stations per day on three assembly lines. That facility, one of many run by Huawei, produces close to 700,000 base stations annually, or one-third of the world’s current power. The universe can be wired up industrially by China.
China gains significant social clout as a result. Zhang stated in the cited meeting to” The Observer”:
Although it is difficult, we want the United States to shift. China has had an unbroken society for thousands of years, and its own culture is the source of a great deal of knowledge. For instance, some Americans and Westerners do not accept China’s proposals for” peace and development.”
We cautioned the West against encouraging and supporting the” Arab Spring” when uprisings broke out in Arab nations because doing so would result in an Arab Winter.
The migrant crisis is currently one of the biggest issues facing Europe. Color uprisings have destroyed some nations in the Middle East and North Africa, and a sizable number of refugees have fled to Europe. nbsp: Peace and development are the only ways to address the issue of migrants.
In order to lessen the number of immigrants, we are promoting peaceful creation in Africa and the Middle East as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. So, it makes sense that European nations should take part in China’s” One Belt, One Road” program.
Zhang is totally correct: No other nation, besides China, has the means and ability to avert the economic hardship that drives refugees to Europe. The same argument was made by Asia Times editor Uwe Parpart in an article published on October 18 for the Swedish publication Weltwoche.
Between 1979 and the present, China’s per capita income increased from roughly$ 3 to$ 30 per day. This country is aware of how cutting-edge technology can significantly improve the lives of extremely poor people.
With the help of digital infrastructure, rural residents can use a$ 60 smartphone to access microcredit, sell on international markets, receive treatment via healthcare, or receive education in schools with few teachers. Artificial intelligence programs may be more successful in developing markets than in developed types.
I predicted that a” Pax Sinica” may appear in the Middle East ten years ago. China imported 53 % of its oil from the Persian Gulf in 2022. It is obviously interested in keeping hostilities from cutting off its crutch of power. As the largest consumer of Iran’s oil and its largest supplier of commercial goods, China has significant effect in Tehran, making it a moderating impact on Iran in that regard.
The Chinese, like the majority of nations, use mirrors instead than telescopes to watch the rest of the world. Peoples who also speak 200 dialects from six main language groups were assimilated into Chinese culture.
Contrary to Christian Europe, the Chinese empire rarely made an effort to bring its peoples together through faith. According to Sinologist Francisco Sisci, it required them to become” civilized ,” which required learning the written characters, dressing in Chinese attire, and paying taxes to the emperor.
Then, they were free to worship any gods and speak any dialect they wanted. The kingdom in turn provided order and system, both of which were essential in the vast flood flat of Central China.
China wants the Middle Eastern population to stay out of trouble and focus on making money in traditional Chinese style because it sees them as digital regions of a new Taiwanese economic kingdom. According to the standard display, President Xi Jinping responded to European representations about Ukraine and Israel in a video seminar with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on November 3 as follows:
Whether it be the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the Polish crisis, Xi Jinping emphasized that in order to address its underlying causes, we must think more deeply about security issues, uphold a common, all-encompassing, cooperative, and lasting security concept, as well as encourage the development of an effective, long-lasting security architecture.
Local imbalances and the growth and intensification of conflicts may result from squeezing other nations’ security spaces and arbitrarily supporting one part while ignoring the genuine demands of the other.
Of course, it’s not quite that easy. There are instances, and China’s strategy for dealing with jihadists inside its own borders has proven to be very successful. Punitive expeditions against unassailable barbarians have a long( but distant ) history in China.
In my role as an advisor to SIGNAL, a foundation that promotes Sino-Israeli relations, I have gone to numerous gatherings where eminent Chinese thought leaders explained that China’s position on Middle East issues was caused by the fact that the country had over 50 Arab embassies in comparison to one Israeli ambassador, and that its large Muslim population supported the Palestinians.
China, however, finds it difficult to comprehend why somebody doesn’t cut the center and resume operations. Nationalism, including its Jewish incarnation, is deeply despised by the Chinese.
That line of thinking has a defect, which is highlighted by China’s tripwire awareness regarding the Taiwan issue. Because one rogue state may serve as an example for many more, China will wage war to prevent Taiwan from achieving de jure freedom.
Although the ethnic groups of the Chinese empire may be preserved like flies in gold, they are not necessarily dead or dormant. The popular proverb from the Romance of Three Kingdoms,” The kingdom, much divided, must unite. much united. must divide ,” is the guiding principle of Chinese management.
China has had thousands of years to adapt its ethnic groups, but it is still impossible to guarantee their obedience. However, given that the empire has no desire to provide security, it is unreasonable to expect Eastern Asian countries and tribes to act in a Chinese manner.
China’s position on Center Eastern concerns is still atmospheric. Beijing earns positions for the Global South at a low cost. & nbsp, However, China’s contribution might increase significantly.
According to Zhang, the doctor mentioned earlier, China may have a crucial impact on the refugee crisis. Gaza is one particular migrant crisis that China might be able to assist with.
Menachem Begin, the prime minister of Israel, suggested to later Egyptian President Sadat in 1978 that Egypt should conquer Gaza and end the refugee crisis by naturalizing the Gazans. American diplomats have never considered this option because Sadat declined.
Two-fifths of Egypt’s people live on$ 3 per day, making the country extremely impoverished. With the neighborhood Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas’ family firm, it already has a jihadist issue. It has imprisoned 40,000 Brotherhood members. It is not in need of more.
Egypt’s major opposition to annexing Gaza, however, may be economic if Israel could dismember Hamas. That is a problem that China, in collaboration with the Gulf States, might be able to resolve. China is already actively involved in Egypt, developing facilities and a brand-new high-tech area.
This kind of assistance to Egypt and Israel in resolving the Gaza issue could signify a political revolution if China wanted to take the lead in the Middle East.
On Thursday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida unveiled a comprehensive stimulus package that is intended to address the nation’s rising costs of living and is estimated to be worth around 17 trillion yen( roughly US$ 113 billion ). & nbsp,
Most likely, it’s likewise intended to boost his administration’d declining popularity. According to a poll conducted by Nikkei and TV Tokyo, his cabinet’s approval rating decreased by 9 percentage points from September to 33 %. Since he took office in October 2021, that was the lowest level.
The core of this program entails money handouts to low-income communities as well as temporary cuts to money and personal taxes totaling an estimated 5 trillion renminbi. & nbsp,
Although this plan has received praise and assistance, it has also come under reasonable fire.
Like many others, I think these policies might be difficult given how stubborn inflation is right now.
At first glance, it seems like a natural step to encourage economic growth and to help those in need to implement tax cuts and offer financial relief to low-income families. & nbsp,
However, given Japan’s now strong economy, these tax reductions may be unnecessary. & nbsp,
Implementing these tax breaks then could overheat the economy, possibly causing an untenable increase in inflation, as Japan has seen solid growth in recent years. Consumer spending could increase as a result of giving homes more disposable income, possibly escalating the inflation issue, which ultimately affects lower income households proportionally.
For years, the nation has struggled with frequent low prices, or even deflation. It’s crucial to distinguish between moderate, acceptable inflation and the kind of quick, unsustainable inflation that may weaken consumers’ purchasing power and destabilize markets, even though inflation can be seen as a sign of an economy in good health. & nbsp,
Economists are concerned that Japan may unintentionally exacerbate the issue by implementing these steps at a time when inflation is now proving to get” stickier” than expected.
Additionally, some structural issues with Japan’s business, such as its rapidly aging population and declining labor force, are not addressed by the stimulus package. & nbsp,
These are some of the issues that need to be prioritized, and money may be better spent on solutions to these long-term problems rather than stifling quick economic development.
We anticipate that foreign investors will continue to have recently rekindled interest in Japanese companies, despite worries about the country’s tax cuts, cash handouts, and possible effects on the economy. & nbsp,
Buyers looking for opportunities in the Land of the Rising Sun are likely to continue to be drawn there by Japan’s stable stock market, continued innovation, strong corporate governance, allure of growth, and global economic integration.
The founder and CEO of deVere & nbsp, Group is Nigel Green. Follow him @ nigeljgreen on Twitter.
PUBLISHED: 3 November 2023 at 4:00 p.m.
According to Prime Minister and Finance Minister Srettha Thavisin, Thailand is open to foreign investment and is prepared to collaborate with the secret business to guide the nation toward a sustainable and equitable future.
At the Foreign Industrial Club Gala Dinner hosted by the Federation of Thai Industries on Wednesday, the PM gave a keynote speech on” Reformation of the Thai Economy Amidst Polycrisis.” The main points of the speech were summarized by Chai Wacharonke, a federal spokesman.
According to the PM, Thailand’s GDP has only increased by 1.8 % annually on average over the past ten years, and household debt has increased from 76 % in 2012 to 91.6 % this year.
According to him, the country’s exports have decreased over the past three quarters as a result of high inflation, high interest rates, expensive raw materials and energy, and intense foreign competition, particularly for agricultural and commodity products.
In the midst of world conflicts and a climate crisis, Thailand must be future-proofed in order to prosper in an economy that is becoming more and more economical.
By lowering the cost of living, promoting private spending, and boosting investment and business growth, the government’s top priority, according to him, is to restore the economy to health and get the country ready for future success.
The PM reaffirmed the government’s commitment to work hard to achieve this through” quick wins” by lowering the cost of energy and implementing the digital wallet policy, as well as medium – and long-term measures, such as using diplomacy to open doors to new markets for Thai goods and services, he said.
According to him, the state also wants to turn Thailand, a country that produces low-profit goods and agricultural products, into one that is high-value and innovation-driven.
He added that the government is preparing for the S-curve market to support this move and that it must connect technology to increase overall productivity for high-value products and services. The government intends to set up a complete EV supply string for electric cars, scooters, cars, and all of their parts and components in the electric car sector, he said.
Thailand is presently willing to work with all parties and is open to opportunities, he declared.
Immoral system is under attack
Published on November 3, 2023, at 4:00 p.m.
According to government official Chai Wacharonke, the government has doubled its efforts to end an illegitimate bacon system in the nation and is determined to finish any related instances by next month.
Yesterday, Mr. Chai and representatives from the Department of Special Investigation ( DSI ), the Anti-Money Laundering Office ( Amlo ), and other organizations released a joint statement on the status of the crackdown.
According to Mr. Chai, the issue began before the state took office and has had a significant negative impact on the economy.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has given the necessary organizations instructions to handle the situation quickly since taking office, according to Mr. Chai.
According to DSI director-general Pol Maj Suriya Singhakamol, smugglers have brought in 2, 385 loading containers of unlawful pork since 2020, for about 3 billion baht, according to an expanded analysis by the authorities.
Trade companies, financiers, and refrigerator room providers are the three groups that the DSI divides gangs associated with the improper pork network into.
The DSI originally filed charges against six suspects from five different companies, but a larger investigation turned up two more. But, the DSI is working to finish the situation by the following month.
Regulators are moving quickly to find those who were fleeing and track down the financial transactions.
However, on Wednesday, Pol Maj Natapon Disayatham, chairman of the DSI’s exclusive legal research center, received information on a road used for illegal meat smuggling from Northeast Micro-Scale Swine Farmer Union Chairman Duenden Yimyaem.
According to Mr. Duenden, the information relates to a broad way that is comparable to direct sales companies that target restaurants and new markets.
The earnings of little pig farmers have decreased as a result of unlawful frozen pork, and they are now outcompeted. The issue has decreased pork’s industry price nevertheless.
In a meeting with the Department of Livestock Development ( DLD ) today, the union stated that it was looking to make the small pig farm groups’ preferred solution.
The association may request that the Price of Goods and Services Act be used to set meat purchased at ranches at prices that are at least 80 baht per kilo for 90 days. For animal farmers, this is done to keep their profitability.
Japan’s exchange rate environment made a big turnaround in 2022 when the yen began to depreciate sharply. When it exceeded 145 yen against the US dollar by September 2022, and then 150 yen in October, the Ministry of Finance conducted two rounds of foreign exchange interventions.
Partly due to a decline in long-term interest rates in the United States from November 2022, the exchange rate returned to below 140 yen. The response from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also contributed to the appreciation, leading to the yen reaching 130 against the US dollar by early 2023. But the yen is still considered undervalued compared to Japan’s economic fundamentals, which are around 100 to 110 yen.
The extreme depreciation of the yen resumed from May 2023. Since early 2022, the yen has declined by an average of about 20% against major currencies. Against the US dollar, the yen depreciated by around 30%.
This is partly attributable to the BoJ’s monetary easing policy, namely yield curve control, that was adopted in 2016. This sets short-term interest rates at negative 0.1% and aims for 0% for 10-year long-term interest rates. For the 10-year interest rate, a small fluctuation range has been permitted.
While the United States and Europe are shifting to interest rate hikes to curb inflation, the BoJ has maintained yield curve control. The widening of the interest rate differential has led to a sharp depreciation of the yen.
Market participants widely believe that the BoJ raised the fluctuation range of the 10-year interest rate from plus or minus 0.25% to plus or minus 0.5% in December 2022.
Under the new leadership of Governor Kazuo Ueda, the BoJ further raised the fluctuation range of long-term interest rates to 1% in July. But unlike in 2022, they left 0.5% as a reference. This meant that fluctuations of up to 1% can be tolerated, but the BoJ will try not to let the long-term interest rates deviate significantly from 0.5%.
Investors found this policy difficult to understand. It was unclear whether the central bank wanted to maintain a low-interest policy to increase domestic demand to achieve the 2% inflation target or raise interest rates to alleviate excessive depreciation of the yen.
The depreciation of the yen progressed even after the policy adjustment. By leaving the reference rate at 0.5%, the exchange rate market judged there was little intention for the central bank to raise interest rates significantly, leading to foreign exchange transactions where people felt reassured to sell yen and buy high-interest dollars.
US monetary policy has greatly influenced the interest rate differential. The US economy is stronger than expected, with a tight labor market. Inflation stands at 3.7%, but excluding energy and food is still above 4%. To ensure inflation decreases toward the 2% target, there is a possibility of a further rate hike or maintaining current high interest rates (5.25 to 5.5%).
The sharp depreciation of the yen is causing import prices to soar, keeping Japan’s inflation well above the 2% target. The BoJ revised the inflation rate for the 2023 fiscal year from 1.8% to 2.5%. The current inflation rate is in the 3% range, with food prices accounting for 70% of this inflation. This is eroding the purchasing power of consumers, leading to a decline in real consumption.
Even with the yen’s depreciation, Japan’s trade deficit continues and export quantities have not increased. Industrial production and corporate investment remain sluggish. While the government’s revenue is increasing due to inflation-induced income and consumption taxes, this is essentially a tax hike. Wage growth has not caught up with the rate of inflation.
Japan’s services sector is enjoying an increase in foreign demand — driven by the yen’s depreciation. Hotels are full and tourist spots are overflowing. Another 10% of Japan’s inflation arises from rising hotel fees, thanks to the tourism boom.
With the rising cost of construction materials and foreign demand for real estate, house prices have also increased. It is also a good time to buy Japanese stocks, which has contributed to good stock market performance in 2023.
The BoJ’s challenges are enormous. How to correct the extreme depreciation of the yen – without causing significant damage to markets, while also committing to a 2% inflation target — is an unprecedented challenge.
Markets widely anticipate the BoJ’s monetary policy normalization, including removing the negative interest rate policy and the yield curve control 10-year target within the next two years. Given rising government and corporate debt, a rapid interest rate hike is likely to cause significant stress to the economy.
The BoJ needs to improve communication with the market and the public about its future monetary stance. It needs to explain how to achieve the 2 % inflation target in the long run, when interest rates become more flexible and possibly higher.
Adopting an inflation target range, such as 1-3%, rather than sticking to a single 2% numerical target could be another option.
Sayuri Shirai is Professor at Keio University and a former policy board member of the Bank of Japan.
This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.
Any staffers at People’s Bank of China headquarters planning a vacation in the last two months of 2023 are almost surely hitting the “cancellation” button.
No major monetary authority is likely to be busier than Beijing’s between now and January 1 than the one Pan Gongsheng leads as governor. In the last 24 hours alone, the PBOC made headlines by, first, signaling a fresh liquidity surge to halt a jump in money market rates and then doing the opposite by draining about US$15 billion from money markets.
It dramatizes the ways in which the PBOC is caught between Federal Reserve rate hikes in Washington, Bank of Japan dovishness in Tokyo and credit market volatility everywhere else.
Add in China’s economic downshift, capital fleeing Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks, and enduring investor concerns about regulatory uncertainty in Beijing and it’s easy to see why holiday plans are likely being canceled at PBOC central.
Pan’s balancing act is made more precarious by the fact neither US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell nor BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda knows where the next two-to-six months will take their respective monetary policies.
The US economy continues to surprise to the upside, growing at a barn-burning 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter. Wages in Japan continue to underwhelm, taking BOJ tapering off the table.
The PBOC’s balancing act at home is getting dicier, too. At the same time, the yuan is under downward pressure, PBOC officials are trying to limit stimulus so that progress in reducing leverage and unproductive lending isn’t squandered. Yet there’s also a need to prop up a slumping economy and channel liquidity to troubled property developers.
Now, there’s an added test for Pan’s leadership team: President Xi Jinping’s new push to reduce debt risks plaguing local governments in order to increase economic dynamism around the nation.
At a twice-a-decade policy meeting of the Central Financial Work Conference this week, attended by Xi, officials unveiled plans for a long-term mechanism to clean up municipal balance sheets.
Naturally, it will fall to the PBOC to grease the skids via liquidity as local governments dispose of bad debts. The enterprise will echo the role the BOJ played in the early 2000s to facilitate the discarding of toxic loans undermining what was then Asia’s biggest economy.
Resolving local government debt troubles, made worse by an explosion of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), is vital to stabilizing China’s $61 trillion financial sector at a time when China Inc is already grappling with cratering real estate markets.
The idea, argues state-run Xinhua News, is to “optimize the debt structure of central and local governments” to improve the quality of national growth.
“This phrase suggests the central government may take up more funding responsibilities and leverage up further while local governments de-leverage and de-risk by resolving implicit debt problems,” says economist Maggie Wei at Goldman Sachs.
Lan Wang, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, says that “moving to diffuse refinancing strains” among LGFVs “could provide some potential for capex expansion under selected local governments,” bolstering Chinese growth.
Overall, Wang says, “property fallout continues.” Fitch, she adds, “recently downgraded several of the largest surviving homebuilders that are still rated in the investment-grade categories, underscoring the lack of stabilization.”
The local government debt plan coincides with Premier Li Qiang’s efforts to repair the property sector. So far, authorities have resisted calls for giant public bailouts of the kind Beijing resorted to in the past. Yet there are signs Xi and Li are becoming more open to easing regulatory pressure on a sector that has previously generated as much as 30% of gross domestic product.
In recent days, Communist Party leaders “vowed to meet the reasonable financing needs from developers,” says economist Larry Hu at Macquarie Bank. But, he adds, “it’s noteworthy that the conference didn’t mention the mantra ‘housing is for living, not for speculation.’” In other words, he notes, “this time around, the focus is to keep regulatory pressure to prevent the emergence of new risks, instead of launching another de-risking campaign.”
Even so, the extreme interconnectivity between property markets and local government finances means this week’s policy shift could be a major one for China’s macro performance in 2024 and beyond.
In the view of Bloomberg Intelligence economist David Qu, this “could turn out to be a monumental event for the financial sector. A debt-laden property sector that’s threatening to rock the financial system adds urgency to the agenda.”
The same goes for the urgency at PBOC headquarters to keep the financial peace. Pan’s team has more work to do as rising US yields and elevated global inflation generate intensifying headwinds.
“China’s structural economic downturn will continue,” says Raymond Yeung, an economist at ANZ Bank. Recent “data improvement doesn’t represent a turnaround in fundamental challenges, such as worsening demographics, a lack of productivity improvement and trade tension.”
It helps that Xi and Li are boosting fiscal stimulus, albeit modestly. Last week, Beijing announced a 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) sovereign debt package for construction projects and that the national budget deficit would be allowed to widen to the largest in three decades.
“Beijing’s rare budget expansion marks a critical step in reflation,” says Robin Xing, economist at Morgan Stanley. “We expect growth and inflation to improve but in a subpar fashion. More stimulus and reforms are likely needed and exiting deflation could be a two-year journey.”
Zhiwei Zhang, economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, says “I take this policy as another step in the right direction. China should make its fiscal policy more supportive, given the deflationary pressure in the economy. Part of the funds raised will be utilized next year, hence this helps to boost growth outlook beyond the fourth quarter.”
Jing Liu, an economist at HSBC, adds that “this should have a positive effect for growth, though the effect may be more backloaded into next year.” Yet, notes economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen at ABN Amro, China faces “fierce headwinds” from the property sector, related debt issues and the “global growth slowdown” and from “ongoing tensions” with the US, EU and the West in general.
These and other headwinds will increase the pressure at PBOC headquarters. One is how rising global energy prices affect inflation – and the risk of Chinese stagflation. Another: sluggish demand for mainland exports. In September, shipments to the US plunged 16.4% year on year.
What’s more, “measures of foreign orders point to a more substantial decline in foreign demand than what has been reflected in the customs data so far,” says Zichun Huang at Capital Economics. “And the lagged impact of higher interest rates is likely to dampen consumer spending in major export markets over the next few quarters.”
In late October, Xi reportedly visited the PBOC, a first since he became president in 2012. It spotlighted the key role Pan’s team is playing in supporting GDP growth and financial markets. Along with the PBOC, Xi and Vice Premier He Lifeng dropped by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which manages China’s $3 trillion of currency reserves.
Yet the PBOC faces an uphill struggle in the months ahead to overcome the myriad headwinds bearing down on China. Some are coming in from Washington, where the Fed is likely to hike rates again. Others are from Europe and Japan, where post-Covid-19 recoveries aren’t as robust as hoped.
“Whatever does emerge from Beijing over the coming months, it likely won’t be quick enough to make any meaningful difference to 2023,” says Robert Carnell, an economist at ING Bank. “At best, it should be viewed as a pain management tool for the transition to a less leveraged economy.”
The good news is that the pain management process is accelerating in ways that could put China on a firmer footing in 2024 and beyond. The bad news is that vacations are off at PBOC for the foreseeable future.
Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek
PUBLISHED : 1 Nov 2023 at 07:02
The National Science and Technology Development (NSTDA) has opened a one-stop service to assist entrepreneurs in the cosmetics industry in entering the global market.
NSTDA director Chukit Limpijamnong said this industry is one of the agency’s core businesses and has strong potential to grow in both local and international markets. As such, firms operating in the industry need strong support as they research and develop innovative technology.
The NSTDA has a clear policy of transferring research in the lab into commercial products, thus boosting the nation’s economic prosperity.
Mr Chukit said the NSTDA has a Service Platform for Food and Functional Ingredients, known as Food SERP, which plays an important role in supporting the food and cosmetics industries.
Some entrepreneurs in the former field have found it difficult to launch their products overseas and need a reliable agency to issue a certificate for the active ingredients used in their products. The NSTDA has provided this service to facilitate their business, he said.
“We have paid attention to the Quick Win policy under the science minister’s guidelines. Close cooperation between the NSTDA and the cosmetics-manufacturing group will help their businesses to grow faster with our strong support based on science and technology, including our one-stop service that helps them to get the documents they need to sell their products,” he said.
The NSTDA and the Thai Cosmetic Cluster (TCOS) on Tuesday signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to cooperate on R&D when it comes to cosmetics and the development of related manufacturing procedures.
The goal is to raise product quality via innovation and technology to make them more competitive in the global market and strengthen networks to create a positive impact on social, economic and environmental development sustainably, Mr Chukit added.
South Africa must tread carefully in its economic relationships to avoid being caught in the escalating tension between East and West, and more specifically China and the US. The country’s hosting, and the outcome, of the 2023 AGOA Summit should strengthen its role in diplomatic relations and contribute toward safeguarding South Africa’s economic interests.
From November 2-4, the US and 35 sub-Saharan African countries will meet in Johannesburg for the 20th Africa Trade and Economic Cooperation Forum (AGOA Forum). It entails strengthening trade and investment ties between the US and sub-Saharan Africa through the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), US legislation that provides various trade preferences to eligible countries in the region.
Also read: Africa-focused US law reframed around countering China, Russia
Given Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine and its rising tension with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, plus the China-US trade war, tensions between East and West are high. South Africa has come under attack for its non-alignment role in the Ukraine war. It refused to support UN resolutions condemning Russia. This resulted in some of the US Congress pushing for the forum to be moved out of South Africa.
The country recently hosted the 15th BRICS summit, which resolved to expand the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa grouping to 11 member states. The enlargement will bolster BRICS’ role as a geopolitical alternative to the West, which is dominated by the US. Might this be a direct challenge to American hegemony?
I have been researching major global economic developments, such as globalization and the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, for 20 years. This body of work shows the risks that come with behavior like South Africa’s. The country could find itself in the middle of a tense situation.
South Africa needs to pull off an exceptional balancing act in managing its international relations in a sensible way that protects and advances its economic interests.
Note that the geopolitical tensions between China and the US are not just about trade disputes. They also include espionage, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, climate change and environmental issues, and tensions over Hong Kong, Taiwan and South China Sea disputes.
As a major source of infrastructure financing to sub-Saharan Africa, China is now the region’s largest bilateral official lender. Its total sub-Saharan African external public debt – what these governments owe to China – rose from less than 2% before 2005 to more than 17% in 2021.
AGOA might present a challenge to China as competition for its own interests in Africa. China would like African countries to untie or loosen their agreements with the US. It is thus a good moment to take stock of the actual benefits South Africa has derived from the Agoa agreement with the US.
The AGOA agreement was approved as legislation by the US Congress in May 2000 for an initial 15 years. On June 29, 2015, it was extended and signed into law by then-president Barack Obama for a further 10 years, to 2025.
It will come into review again in 2024, hence the importance of the upcoming summit. Recently, Senator John Kennedy introduced a bill to the US Congress to extend AGOA by a further 20 years, to 2045. This is a bid to counter China’s growing influence in Africa, and to continue to allow sub-Saharan African countries preferential access to US markets.
In 2021, the US was the second-most-significant destination for South Africa’s exports worldwide, mainly thanks to AGOA. China took the top spot; Germany was third. The US ranked third as a source of South Africa’s imports, following China and Germany.
In that year, the total trade volume between South Africa and the US reached its zenith at $24.5 billion, with a trade imbalance of $9.3 billion in South Africa’s favor.
AGOA offers preferential entry for about 20% of South Africa’s exports to the US, or 2% of South Africa’s global exports. The stock of South African investment in the US has more than doubled since 2011, amounting to $3.5 billion in 2020.
American foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Africa increased by more than 70% over that period, to $10 billion. This made the US South Africa’s fifth-largest source of FDI in 2019. The US was its third-largest destination for outward FDI.
US investment in South Africa is mainly concentrated in manufacturing, finance and insurance, and wholesale trade, which is vital for economic growth. American multinationals doing business in South Africa employ about 148,000 people.
More specifically, AGOA’s benefits include:
China is the largest consumer of South African commodity exports, and thus a key influencer of the rand exchange rate. In addition, China and Russia’s planned move toward de-dollarization (trying to replace the petrodollar system with their own system) puts American interests under threat. This means South Africa needs to navigate carefully its relations with the US and its BRICS partners, China and Russia.
It will want to keep strong ties with the US through AGOA without getting into a difficult position between China and the US. The outcome of this week’s meeting will have serious economic implications.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
(A)manda Parkinson/BBCDarwin is a city obsessed.
Here in this town on Australia’s northern edge, laksa is the meal of choice for breakfast, lunch and dinner, weekday or weekend, a staple everywhere from food courts and cafes to snazzy restaurants.
The sour and spicy noodle broth, traditionally topped with meat or seafood, is the love child of Malaysian, Indonesian, Chinese and Singaporean cuisine, though each tries to claim it.
If you ask Darwin though, they’ll say it’s theirs now.
Such is the love for laksa in this multicultural city that it’s inspired weekly rituals, sparked rivalries that have divided households, and turned humble chefs into local celebrities.
“As a dish, it really does help sum up not just the community, but where we are and what we are,” says demographer Andrew Taylor.
“You’ve got a population here that’s just different and laksa too is different to everything else.”
Nowhere is the city’s infatuation more obvious than at its local markets.
The mercury in Darwin rarely dips below 20C and the air is often so thick with humidity that walking to the letterbox leaves you needing a shower.
And yet, every Saturday like clockwork, sweaty crowds form lines between stalls at the Parap Markets, craving a fix. A tangy scent and a choir of electric fans greet the faithful, many armed with containers to take home a few ladlefuls of the beloved soup.
Everyone has their favourite.
“It’s very controversial which laksa you go to,” local Elly says. “It’s properly a debate in our household. There’s two people that love Yati’s, there’s two people that love Purple Lady, and one undecided.”
Kirsty’s family is firmly on team Mary – a stalwart of the Parap Markets who has been dishing up steaming bowls of brothy goodness for two decades.
“We’re a military family and we’re actually coming to the end of our two years [here], so we’re trying to get our Mary fix as much as we can,” Kirsty says.
In October, the mania kicks into another gear for the month-long laksa festival.
A giant shrine to laksa is erected in the city’s mall, the streets are decked out with banners promoting the event, and the most outlandish and tasty dishes become excited water cooler-buzz and fodder for group chats.
On offer are traditional laksas of every ilk – thick and soupy, or thin and light; topped with wontons or adorned with prawns; chicken or pork or vegetarian.
But there’s also the more adventurous oddities – laksa ice-cream, laksa pies, laksa smoothies, even vegan laksa-gna and laksa crocodile dumplings.
No one is sure exactly when, or exactly how, this laksa obsession began in Darwin.
“I grew up in Darwin and laksa just has always been a thing that people love,” says Jo Smallcombe, who organises the government-backed festival.
But the answer likely lies in the city’s long and rich multicultural history.
It is far closer to Asia than it is to every other Australian capital. From the Japanese pearl divers and Chinese gold rushers who came in the late 1800s to now, Darwin has been a hotspot for travel. There’s even evidence the Top End’s First Nations people were trading with their neighbours before the country was colonised.
And today the Northern Territory is one of Australia’s most culturally diverse places – more than half of the population was born overseas, or has a parent who was.
“Everyone’s just contracted this laksa fever,” Jason Chin tells the BBC, grinning. Stopping to greet at least four people, the 42-year-old explains how he accidentally became the city’s laksa king and the festival’s most decorated chef.
His mum Loretta bought a modest food court joint called Chok’s Place from a friend 30 years ago. He spent years helping out after school and raiding the drinks fridge, before having an epiphany.
“I actually woke up one day and said ‘Mama, I’d like to start doing what you’re doing.”
Fast forward to 2019 and Mr Chin – who had by then bought the business from his mum and quietly built on her legacy and her recipes – became a last-minute entry to the city’s first-ever laksa festival.
Vendors compete for the coveted Golden Bowl, the winner of which is determined with a blind tasting.
When judgement day came, Mr Chin plated up his laksa then, without a fuss, went straight back to work. “I didn’t wait around because it was a Saturday and we have a skeleton staff on,” he says with a shrug.
He only found out he’d won when the festival organisers called the next day to ask where he’d gone.
Almost overnight, business exploded. Chok’s Place went from sometimes selling only six laksas a day, to almost 100. Now Mr Chin caps the number of dishes at 50 to ensure quality, making it even more of a commodity.
He took himself out of Golden Bowl contention this year to share the love, but was inducted in the Laksa Festival Hall of Fame.
Alongside the more traditional offerings, there are also scores of vendors who vie for the title of best laksa-inspired dish.
Among the most controversial is a Basque burnt cheesecake at Kopi Stop. Its Singaporean creator Jules Mou has strong laksa credentials; her traditional bowl is an undeniable hit and this year, it won People’s Choice, but she also wanted to plate up something unique.
The top is innocent enough – sweet and fluffy – before it gives way to a thick slab of laksa paste, in place of a biscuit base.
“I was thinking laksa coffee, ‘Mmm, I really want to try it, but I really don’t’,” Ms Mou said with a laugh: “[But] one day, it just came to me like, ‘Oh, maybe we can try a cheesecake’.”
When word got around that One Mile Brewery would be making an alcoholic Laksa Seltzer, customers were similarly sceptical.
“People were very much like, ‘Really?’ And some people were just like, ‘Why?'” brewer Stuart Brown said.
He and business partner Bardy Bayram briefly tossed up working noodles and coconut milk into the drink somehow, but decided floaties and a creamy flavour would probably be a bridge too far.
They landed on a brew which, by their own admission, smells “pungent”. But it is surprisingly palatable – fruity, with notes of lime, coriander and chilli, and a slight salty aftertaste.
“You look at it and you think: it’s chunky, it’s full, and it’s not the right colour. But if you close your eyes, block out your nose and have a sip…” Mr Bayram says.
“I’ve said to people, try it without breathing if you can,” Mr Brown adds.
Some laksa-inspired dishes are cult favourites – one local says she has to buy and deep-freeze laksa sausages for her mum to take home when she visits from interstate.
Even the dishes that don’t work, that are borderline offensive, are a fun celebration of the things that make Darwin extraordinary, locals say.
“It’s something different, it’s exciting, everybody’s trying to be innovative – it’s great!” Ms Mou says. “It represents who we are.”
That includes laksa chocolate, which is dividing opinion in Darwin.
Getting a whiff of “curry” before biting, brave taste-testing volunteer Tim’s face shifts from concern to relief as he chews.
“Oh my god, it does taste like laksa… then a caramel, sweeter taste at the end,” he says.
Would he buy it for himself? That’s a polite but resounding no.