US tech war opens fire on China’s cloud computing

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US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo stated that she and the Biden administration would not be portrayed as bad on China in response to Republican senators’ pressure to censure Chinese cloud computing business:

She told the Senate Appropriations Committee,” I’ve put more than 200 Chinese businesses on the institution list during my tenure, and we’re constantly looking into new threats. If and when we decide that companies should be added to the list, I won’t bother.”

Eight Republican senators, including Senator Bill Hagerty( R-TN ), a ranking member of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on National Security and International Trade and Finance, wrote to Raimondo, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 25 requesting that they take decisive action against Chinese cloud service providers like Baidu and Tencent, as well as Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Cloud.

According to” Open-source information ,” Huawei Cloud and PRC-based cloud computing services are directly undermining the interests of the US and our allies and partners in terms of national security and economic security. They are also increasingly interacting with foreign entities, some of which are sanctioned. & nbsp, We implore you to take decisive action against these companies through sanctions, export restrictions, investment bans, and further research into PRC cloud computing service companies.

The following payment is listed on Senator Hagerty’s site:

” The example we give in the text demonstrate the viability of China’s military-civil integration strategy.” It does make sense to refuse US exports of these nations given China’s laws, which require every Chinese citizen and company to participate in regional security or intelligence work, according to Hagerty. & nbsp,” Yet businesses like Alibaba Cloud that are not on the Entity List now have access to US technology, imports, and even activities here in the United States.”

Do you recognize that the PRC cloud service providers operating in the United States pose a danger to our national and our financial security, given the scope of China’s military legal fusion strategy and regional security-related laws? Hagerty questioned.

According to Secretary Raimondo,” I’m in wide agreement with you.”

Gina Raimondo, secretary of commerce. Asia Times images

The email continues by citing specific but well-known instances of the companies’ play with China’s military, security, and intelligence services, such as satellite imagery and regional monitoring. They do, however, mainly serve financial markets, much like US military legal fusion company Boeing.

For instance,” military civil fusion” is not a sinister Chinese plot; rather, it is based on common practice. Boeing declared in February that it had been” selected by the US Air Force as the prime contractor for the country’s intercontinental ballistic missile ( ICBM ) guidance subsystems support.” Over the course of 16 years, the contract could be worth up to$ 1.6 billion.

Alibaba Cloud is the biggest cloud service provider in China and the fourth-largest in the world. It offers services to the banking, e-commerce, logistics, and many industries around the world in the areas of repository, storage, data analytics, networking, application, security, etc.

The employment website indeed.com currently lists 30 positions at Alibaba in Sunnyvale, California, including software engineer, photonics expert, research scientist, and business manager, with annual pay ranging from$ 110,000 to$ 240,000.

According to Crunchbase, US technology providers have eliminated more than 135, 000 projects so far this year. Senator Hagerty and his associates likely want to do away with internships at Alibaba as well as the modern know-how they stand for.

The level of knowledge is very deep. For instance, a Ph.D. is required for applicants for the placement of optics professional. have in the construction, development, and production of golden optics chips for visual interconnects, as well as a d. degree in electrical engineering, applied science, or another related field.

Although Huawei Cloud is basically roughly half as big as Alibaba Cloud, it has been developing quickly. Huawei Cloud, as reported on its website, has received a number of qualifications and awards since being added to the Entity List in August 2020, including:

The initial cloud service provider in Asia-Pacific to receive PCI 3DS accreditation for regional transactions account information security as of August 2020.

The second cloud service provider to achieve information security management Standard 27799 certification in September 2020.

The British Standards Institution has awarded both the CSA STAR 2021 Gold Certification and the ISO / IEC 27034 application security standard certification.

Forrester Research has named him a president in predictive analytics and machine learning as of November 2020.

For its GaussDB registry products, which assist businesses in migrating data to the sky, Gartner has included it in its Magic Quadrant for Cloud Database Management Systems for December 2020.

One of the best four and the fastest-growing cloud service provider in Latin America, Canalys named it in March 2021.

May 2021- No. Ranked 1 in the IDC market for commercial cloud infrastructure in China.

Ranked No. December 2021 IDC ranks machine learning at number one in China’s public cloud system market.

More than 1,000 public staff, clientele, and business experts attended the Huawei Cloud Summit Middle East and Africa in Dubai in March 2022.

The meeting looked at how cloud computing can help with public services, financing, carriers, media, e-commerce, and gaming.

The second Huawei Cloud Indonesia Summit was held in Jakarta in September 2022 to discuss the electronic economy with local business leaders and scholars, business partners, and the internet.

With more than 60 products to be launched in areas like e-commerce, shorter video platforms, online gambling security, and finance, Indonesia became a new area for Huawei Cloud in November.

In order to create good town ideas, Huawei Cloud and BCB Blockchain of Singapore joined forces in November 2020.

The Huawei Cloud Accelerator, a system intended to support the growth of start-ups with the aid of venture entrepreneurs, was unveiled in September 2022 at the summit held by the Huang Cloud Global Startup Founders Summit. This program aims to empower businesses in Shenzhen.

According to the company, Huawei Cloud is now used by more than 800 public clouds in China. The bank’s” One City, One Cloud” approach has been put into practice in over 150 settlements, and it also powers over 300 financial institutions, including six major institutions.

E-commerce, financing, power, manufacturing, medicine, and gaming are a few other user industries. Huawei Cloud is present outside of China in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Europe. Being on the Entity List does not appear to be a serious issue, aside from not being able to work in the US.

May US politicians be able to punish some Chinese cloud service providers for their actions? Maybe. Even as they forced Oracle to cut its ties with Huawei, they may compel US businesses like Salesforce, IBM, VMware, and Fortinet to do the same with Alibaba Cloud.

Huawei created its own ERP application as a result, which it unveiled in April. If Alibaba Cloud were added to the Entity List, which is overseen by the Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS ) of the Commerce Department, something similar would likely occur.

Being placed on the list can be a significant issue, but it also motivates the targeted business to exert more effort. It may be referred to as the BIS Certificate of Quality in the Global South and some regions of the world where US sanctions are truly recognized.

@ ScottFo83517667 is the author’s Twitter account.

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Voters urged to help map national development

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SONGKHLA: Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday called on voters in this southern province, especially the young generation, to join him in mapping the direction of national development.

In a campaign speech in Muang district, Gen Prayut, the United Thai Nation Party’s No 1 prime ministerial candidate, told supporters that the May 14 general election is possibly the nation’s most important election.

He said Thailand must change for the better and asked young voters to help him shape development. He also thanked people in Songkhla for their support.

Gen Prayut also introduced UTN leader Pirapan Salirathavi­bhaga, who is the party’s No 2 prime ministerial candidate, and UTN candidate Jua Ratchasi to supporters.

After the speech, Gen Prayut toured several markets in Muang to solicit support for the UTN’s MP candidates in the district.

On Saturday evening, thousands of people turned up for the UTN’s first rally in Phatthalung, which was held in the province’s Muang district.

There, he told party supporters that every policy proposal could be implemented if the UTN wins the election, gains control of the House and leads the next government.

He touted support for a double-track rail system for every region, a new motorway project to connect the Andaman coast with the Gulf of Thailand and amendments to outdated laws.

He also said several development schemes under his government could not be completed due to insufficient funds, a problem made worse by the Covid-19 pandemic. “These policies we want to push can’t proceed if the party has too few seats,” he said. “There are several issues that I have to finish, and I’m here asking for your votes and support for the UTN.”

Gen Prayut spent the weekend campaigning in Trang, Phatthalung and Songkhla provinces, known to be traditional strongholds of the Democrat Party, and wrapped up his tour with a rally in Songkhla’s Hat Yai district yesterday.

There are 60 constituency seats up for grabs in the South, compared with 50 in the previous election in 2019. The UTN aims to capture 20 seats in the region, which was split among the Democrats, the Palang Pracharath Party, the Bhumjaithai Party, the Prachachart Party and the Action Coalition for Thailand Party in the last polls.

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Consensus on need to support farmers

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An 11-party conference on agriculture and food protection was reportedly agreed upon, and there is widespread political commitment on the significance of sustainable farming, food safety and security, as well as the need to combat poverty among farmers.

Several policies were put forth at the party, including support for organic gardening, technological development, modernizing the business to meet international standards, and addressing land ownership disparity.

The National Farmers Council, Biodiversity, Sustainable Agriculture, and Food Sovereignty Action Thailand( the BioThai Foundation ), Chulalongkorn University’s Social Research Institute, as well as their companions, organized it.

The government’s subsidy programs should be revised, according to Decharut Sukkumnoed, director of the Move Forward Party ( MFP ) Think Forward Centre, as they haven’t been successful in enhancing farmers’ standard of living.

To replace aging farmers and improve agricultural product manufacturing, the plantation sector needs to be restructured and a new workforce of small farmers, he said.

In four years, the MFP has pledged to distribute Sor Por Kor land to impoverished farmers and may raise the property rights bank from 300 million ringgit to 10 billion.

In the meantime, the Bhumjaithai Party would increase organic farming areas by 20 % over the course of four years while halving the use of chemical fertilizer.

According to Supachai Jaisamut, the secretary of Bhumjaithai, taxation measures on hazardous chemicals may be taken into consideration to prevent their use as well as a moratorium on and commercialization of chemical-laden goods.

According to him, the club also intends to boost nutrition security standards, promote clean markets across the country, and give the organic farming industry financial support.

Alongkorn Ponlaboot, a deputy president in the Democratic Party, stated that the group’s 26-point agricultural policy has been developed to boost farmers’ incomes and support Thailand, which has the ability to dominate food exports.

According to him, the occasion intends to advance sustainable farming by expanding inorganic farming areas and preserving wildlife.

According to the Chartthaipattana Party, its agricultural strategy is based on the New-Theory Agriculture theory, and it will set aside more money to support business development.

According to club manager Nikorn Chamnong, the nation has placed an excessive amount of emphasis on the transportation sector, harming the agricultural sector.

The Chartpattanakla Party’s deputy president, Atavit Suwanpakdee, floated a plan to create an international cheese nutrition company called Fonterra that is owned by 10,500 farmers in New Zealand and their families.

The party, according to him, will also encourage the use of modern management to assist farmers in managing their farms more effectively.

The Palang Pracharath Party will work to lower costs, increase productivity, and encourage exports while Pheu Thai plans to issue property deeds totaling 50 million ray to persuade grain farmers to switch to wheat and soy beans.

While the Prachachart Party may push for a law to restrict investor property rights, the Thai Sang Thai Party wants to set off 150 billion ringgit for research and development.

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Singapore ‘cautiously optimistic’ about economic prospects amid volatile global environment: PM Lee

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“Singapore’s survival depends on us staying open and doing business with the world. This means continually transforming our industries, enhancing existing capabilities and building new ones as we move into growth markets.

“This will cause disruptions to some existing jobs, but at the same time it will create new jobs with better prospects for the future,” the Prime Minister said.

Against this backdrop, Singapore will do more to professionalise skilled trades to create more pathways to success and to improve career planning support for Singaporeans. 

Mr Lee said that these issues were being discussed during the Forward Singapore exercise, including how to help Singaporeans improve their work prospects and resilience, as well as transition to new jobs and careers.

He added that these will require a strong collaboration between tripartite partners – the Ministry of Manpower, the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) and the Singapore National Employers Federation – with the labour movement playing a key role. 

He recalled how NTUC had worked closely with employers and employees to implement wage-cutting measures during the pandemic, with the management “taking the lead in wage cuts, to share the pain, sustain businesses and save jobs”.

“NTUC also set up the Job Security Council to redeploy workers from pandemic-hit sectors like aviation to other sectors needing more manpower like healthcare.

“Such efforts enabled us to come through COVID-19 united as one, and reinforced trust amongst the tripartite partners,” Mr Lee said.

The Prime Minister also said he is happy to see that worker training and upgrading programmes are “progressing well”, with employers providing training opportunities and encouraging workers to take them up. 

He noted that more employers are also accommodating the changing needs of workers such as by implementing flexible work arrangements and redesigning jobs for older workers, which will help to improve productivity and retain talent.

“The government will continue to do its best to support Singaporeans,” Mr Lee said. 

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BigPay appoints Zubin Rada Krishnan acting group CEO

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Zubin Rada Krishnan succeeds Salim Dhanani as acting group CEO
BigPay currently has 1.3mil users representing nearly 50% growth YoY

BigPay, a Capital A venture company and fintech in Southeast Asia has announced the appointment of Zubin Rada Krishnan (pic) as acting Group CEO.
Zubin was the Malaysia country head for BigPay the past year and…Continue Reading

Turkey’s attack helicopter built to storm global markets

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Turkish Aerospace (TA) and Turkish Defense Industry Agency have unveiled the T929 ATAK 2 heavy attack helicopter, a heftier and larger version of the T129 that it intends to replace in Turkish service, according to a Jane’s report.

The T929 is envisioned to be operated by the Turkish Armed Forces and export customers and is expected to make its maiden flight in the coming weeks.

The Janes report notes that the T929 follows the typical attack helicopter layout with a stepped tandem cockpit, stub wings and fixed-tailwheel-type landing gear.

Janes says the T929 cockpit is armored against .50 caliber rounds and has a large display area. Its stub wings can carry 1,200 kilograms of ordnance, such as air-to-surface and air-to-air missiles, guided and unguided rockets, and a chin-mounted T-30H 30-millimeter chain gun and Aselsan forward-looking electro-optic/infrared turret.

Janes says that the T929 prototype is powered by two Ukrainian Motor Sich TV3-117VMA-SBM1V Series 1 turboshaft, in contrast to the US-made twin LHTEC T800s on the T129.

The use of LHTEC T800s on the T129 caused delays to Philippine export sales due to US sanctions on Turkey, stemming from Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400E air defense systems in 2019. The Janes report notes that production models will have twin TS1400 turboshafts from domestic manufacturer TUSAS Industries.

The T129 is smaller than its US and Russian counterparts, which may present some design limitations such as smaller fuel and armaments load. 

Comparing the T129 to the US AH-64 Apache, SOFREP notes in an August 2022 article that the T129 can outrange the AH-64 by nearly 100 kilometers while the AH-64 is faster by 80 kilometers per hour.

In addition, SOFREP says that the T129 and AH-64 can carry roughly the same amount of ordnance, with the T129 capable of carrying eight UMTAS 160-millimeter long-range anti-tank missiles, 76 unguided 70-millimeter rockets for close air support, 16 CIRIT 70-millimeter missiles, or eight Stinger air-to-air missiles.

The report mentions that the AH-64 can carry equivalent weapons, such as the Stinger, AIM-9 Sidewinder, Sidearm, and guided and unguided 70-millimeter rockets. It also says that the T129 has a 20-millimeter cannon with 500 rounds, while the AH-64 has a single-barrel 30-millimeter gun that has a 1,200-round-per-minute rate of fire.

SOFREP says that the AH-64 has the advantage over the T129 as the former has higher speed, heavier and more varied armaments, state-of-the-art avionics and sensor packages, and better-trained crews.

Concept art of Turkey’s T929 heavy attack helicopter. Photo: Defense Turk

The T929 is just one of the several high-end products that Turkey’s defense industry has lately started to produce.

Significantly, Turkey may already be poised to join the elite club of countries capable of making fighter jets. Last December, Asia Times reported on Turkey’s progress on its TF-X fighter, photos of which show the type in the early stages of construction with a complete fuselage and wings while its engines, avionics, and control fins remain out of view. It is designed for air-to-air operations with a secondary emphasis on air-to-ground attacks.

This January, The Warzone reported that the TF-X is in an advanced stage of production, with a complete nose section with faceted enclosures for what seems to be a dedicated infrared search and track sensor system (IRST) in front of the cockpit and a multi-purpose electro-optical targeting system (EOTS) under the forward fuselage.

The source notes that no other fighter in production has the same configuration.

Turkey has also developed a stealth drone following a trend of smaller powers building affordable robotized air forces. Last November, Asia Times reported on Turkey’s Kizilelma stealth drone, which is envisioned to perform air-to-ground and air-to-air missions in heavily-defended airspace. A naval variant is planned to operate from the TCG Anadolu light carrier.

The TCG Anadolu was envisioned to operate the F-35B short take-off and vertical-landing (STOVL) fighter. Still, due to Turkey’s removal from America’s F-35 program in 2019, the ship was converted into a drone carrier, proving some aircraft carrier capabilities such as power projection for a fraction of the cost.

Turkey has also developed a mini-submarine which it hopes will be a hit in the global market and a potential game-changer for naval warfare.

Asia Times reported on Turkey’s ST-500 mini-submarine, which may be effective in littoral operations due to its small magnetic and acoustic signature which is further obscured by blending into background noise such as shipping traffic.

The ST-500 mini-submarine can also be an option for countries seeking to build undersea warfare capabilities on a tight budget, such as the Philippines and Ukraine.

Airforce Technology notes multiple reasons Turkey seeks to build its domestic defense industry. Airforce Technology notes that the Ukraine war has opened a massive rift between Russia and NATO, creating a potentially huge market for Turkey.

Airforce Technology notes that as Russia may be unable to fulfill international arms orders due to sanctions on its defense industry and the need to replace battle losses, countries that have placed orders for Russian weapons may look to Turkey for replacements.

A TF-X fighter concept image. More updated images of the aircraft under construction were released on Youtube. Image: Industry Handout

It also mentions that Turkey’s struggling economy makes it imperative for the country to look for other sources of revenue, with its burgeoning defense industry capable of making significant profits.

These ambitious defense projects tie into the grander aspirations of Turkey’s foreign policy. In an article last month for the peer-reviewed Journal of the Human and Social Sciences Researches, Serdar Yilmaz and Murat Yorulmaz argue that Turkey’s ramped-up defense industry is indicative of an active and assertive foreign policy.

Yilmaz and Yorulmaz mention that Turkey’s defense industry investments aim to reduce reliance on external powers, enable a more flexible and transactional approach in foreign affairs, open new opportunities for international collaboration and serve as a muscular bargaining tool for Turkey’s economic and security interests.

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Young voters see little hope from Turkey’s elderly candidates

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With more than half of Turkey’s eligible voters made up of millennials and those from the younger Generation Z, the opposition may think they have a chance finally to unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after 20 years in power.

But while 51% of the 64 million voters are young – 20 million voters were born after 1981, including 13 million Gen Zers and 6 million who are eligible to vote for the first time – they are far from a certainty at the presidential and parliamentary polls on May 14.

Meet Turkey’s Gezi Park generation, an apolitical and politically apathetic group who have grown weary of politics and have little to no belief they live in a functioning democracy. 

In such a crucial election, young people appear to lack a voice or be included in any candidate’s political platform, including that of Erdogan, 69, or his main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74.    

It would seem Kilicdaroglu could benefit from the generational angst. Eight out of 10 Gen Zers believe it is harder to be a young person in Turkey than in any country in the European Union.

A report by Turkish researcher KONDA in October revealed that four in five Turks between ages 18 and 30 said they were not affiliated with any political party. Furthermore, 90% rated the functionality of Turkey’s democracy 5 on a scale of 10, and 62% said the country is poorly managed. 

These young Turks have never really experienced a time when the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its leader, Erdogan, were not in power. 

These weren’t exactly the salad days of their young lives. Fifty-four percent of those between 17 and 30 said in a recent survey that they are in need of psychological help. Meanwhile, 71% said they are unable to imagine a different future.

Under the two-decade reign of the AKP, young people’s lives have become worse. Although Turkey’s older population argues otherwise, labeling younger generations as ungrateful, the numbers speak a different truth.

Economic woes

Opportunities are scarce for young people amid Turkey’s deteriorating economy. Research shows 69% of Turks between the ages of 18 and 29 are financially dependent on their families.  

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is 21% among people between 15 to 24, while other estimates put the figure as high as 33%. If included with European countries, Turkey has the fifth-highest youth unemployment rate in the region. 

The low employment rates do not stem from a lack of higher education. Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) data from 2019 show the number of unemployed university graduates in Turkey has increased tenfold in the past 15 years. One out of four unemployed people is a university graduate. 

This has all led to a massive brain drain under the AKP’s watch. According to TUIK, between 2019 and 2021, more than 250,000 citizens aged between 20 and 29 left the country. And those who have stayed want to leave – and in big numbers.

Research by Kondrad-Adenuer-Stifftung in 2021 found that 72% of those between 18 to 25 would live in another country if given the chance. And who can blame them? In the past two years, the annual inflation rate has risen more than 100%, the Turkish currency has been mired at record lows, and a devastating earthquake has claimed the lives of thousands.

All these factors have immensely lowered the living standards of young people in Turkey. No wonder 82% believe they are worse off than in 2021. 

The fact the opposition has done so little to woo young voters amid this turmoil is mind-boggling. More than 80% of young people between 18 and 35 said they do not believe any party can solve their problems, according to an October report by the nongovernmental organization SOMDER. 

The campaign of Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party has made some gestures including a pledge to not tax purchases of mobile phones, vehicles and video-game consoles. But this does not appear to be enough to support its promise of a better future for the younger generation.

Kilicdaroglu will, however, be buoyed by the response to a video message to young people in which he discussed his Alevi identity. The tweet itself received more than 110 million views.

But the overall tone-deaf approach to young voters highlights an unspoken problem within Turkey: the exclusion of the young from the conversation about the country’s present and future.

The age distribution of the current parliament is reflective of the ageism tilted in favor of the older generations. Out of 600 members of parliament, 319 are aged 40 and above while only eight are below 30. 

Turkey, with a median age of 31, is considered a relatively young country, but like most countries it is run by people decades older. The upcoming election should represent a generational clash, however neither side is fighting for the rights of the youth. That is why it is safe to call millennials and Gen Zers Turkey’s betrayed generation. 

Not only have these young people lost all hope for the future, they live with the constant notion that their future has been stolen. Although youth have the power to sway elections, they have been bullied into silence and robbed of a will to take part in their own destinies.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright. Follow Alexandra de Cramer on Twitter @aedecramer.

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US officials scramble to slow China’s advances

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It was the ultimate chip war that never was: German officials denied that Berlin planned to stop exporting specialty chemicals for chip fabrication, Reuters reported on April 27 – a day after Bloomberg News claimed that the government of Olaf Scholz “was in talks” on the subject, presumably under prodding from Washington.

The stock prices of BASF and Solvay, the largest makers of the specialty products, plunged on Thursday after the Bloomberg report appeared but recovered sharply on Friday after the government’s denial.

More than a dozen chemicals including acids, bases and solvents are indispensable to etching microcircuits onto silicon wafers, and an interruption of supplies would cripple China’s fabrication capacity. Restricting these chemicals would escalate the chip war far beyond the scope of the Biden Administration’s October 7 controls on semiconductor equipment and design software for the most advanced chips, used in high-end smartphones, servers and artificial intelligence applications. The target would include all chips including so-called mature processes.

In related news, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced on April 26 that the US will consider banning exports to Chinese cloud-computing companies, including Alibaba as well as Huawei. Raimondo responded to a letter from a group of Senators led by Bill Hagerty (R-TN) warning that Chinese cloud computing threatens US “national security and economic security.”

The Biden Administration is also expected to ban US investments in yet-to-be-announced high-tech industries in China.

Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee meanwhile are wrapping up a three-month investigation of the Commerce Department’s enforcement of chip controls and have offered legislation that would give the Defense Department responsibility for enforcing the ban. Gregory Allen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argued in congressional testimony April 13 that “China’s export control evasion activities are significant and growing. My primary recommendation is that Congress focus on concrete strategies to tighten this enforcement and shore up remaining gaps that risk allowing China to close the AI gap.”

Washington is scrambling to restore credibility to its effort to contain China after a streak of Chinese diplomatic victories, including the Beijing-mediated restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beijing in a show of independence from Washington and the visits of Brazilian President Lula and Malaysian President Anwar Ibrahim.

Ukraine President Zelensky’s telephone call with Xi Jinping and the dispatch of a special Chinese envoy to Ukraine, moreover, raise the prospect that China will pick up the pieces in Ukraine, after a drumbeat of damaging Pentagon leaks revealed how badly America stumbled.

In the advent of the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic administration is sensitive to Republican claims that it is too easygoing towards China.

China’s economic success in the Global South threatens to lure key countries out of the American orbit. As of March, China’s exports to ASEAN countries rose 35% year-on-year and exports to Central Asia (including Turkey and Iran) rose 55%, Asia Times reported April 25. China now exports more to the Global South than it does to developed markets.

Washington’s controls on the export of high-end chips and chip-making technology to China, announced October 7, 2022, were intended to deny China access to cutting-edge hardware that supported the most advanced AI applications. By contrast, the Commerce Department has shown flexibility in allowing semiconductor equipment manufacturers to ship machines that produce mature chips.

The Biden Administration adapted its strategy from a September 2022 report by the Special Competitive Studies Project, chaired by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. This offered a response to China’s growing military power as imagined by Silicon Valley software venture capitalists: An “Offset-X strategy” including “distributed and networked operations, human-machine collaboration, human-machine teaming, primacy in software-centric warfare, resilience and greater technological interoperability and interchangeability and partners.”

Eric Schmidt speaks during a National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) conference November 5, 2019, in Washington, DC. Photo: Asia Times files/ Alex Wong / Getty Images via AFP

That was a Silicon Valley futurist’s view of warfare, unrelated to military technology that will prevail for the foreseeable future. Both the US and Chinese military use older-generation chips for sensing, targeting and processing information. The older chips are more robust and easier to harden, as a February 2022 Rand Corporation study explained.

The Biden Administration gravely underestimated the power and importance of mature chip technologies (14 nanometers and higher), which comprise 95% of the global chips market and power 5G infrastructure, industrial productivity applications, and other so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies. Semiconductor fabricators depend on mature chips for most of their revenues, and China’s massive investment in a domestic supply chain threatens to erode the financial base of the whole Western chip industry, as Dimitri Alperovitch of Silverado Incubator has observed.

One problem is that cutting off the Chinese market may have devastating consequences for the revenues of Western high-tech companies. The Atlantic Council warned in a March 2023 report, “While the steps taken by the Biden administration to constrain China’s progress in producing cutting-edge semiconductors appear calibrated to avoid widespread industry disruption, the policy has painful consequences that cannot be downplayed….the bottom-line impact may be felt in terms of what the industry terms a ‘significant loss of scale’ that could yield fewer resources for R&D and new investments…. It is essential that the semiconductor industry – and US allies, as discussed below – have a voice in assessing the potential impact of additional proposed constraints. Communication is essential to avoid unintended consequences.”

To make matters worse, American sanctions on the sale of high-end chips to China are extremely difficult to enforce. To comply with sanctions Nvidia reduced the clock speed on a variant of its GPUs, the standard for high-end servers, while selling substantially the same product to China.

In addition, the global market in chips is so complex and opaque that Chinese companies can buy whatever they want on the gray market, and the enforcement capacity of the Commerce Department is woefully inadequate to prevent this, Allen stated. Chinese sources say that high-end GPUs are freely available at a 10% premium to the going price.

Chinese commentators compare the chip war to China’s civil war. By concentrating on low-end chips, and undercutting the prices of Western manufacturers, “Observer” columnist Chen Feng says, China will “encircle the cities from the countryside,” a reference to Mao’s successful military strategy during the Civil War of the 1940s. The United States “can only go to Menglainggu [the site of a decisive 1947 Communist victory) by relying on high-end chips.” As noted, analysts like Alperovitch have already flagged the danger.

On March 27, Huawei announced that it had developed its own chip design software for 14 nanometer and wider mature nodes; if true, that would represent a major step towards Chinese independence from US design firms Cadence and Synopsis, which have had a near monopoly on the technology.

As the Atlantic Council suggested, the Biden Administration appears to have given US firms considerable leeway in exports to China. LAM Research, a leading US manufacturer of semiconductor equipment, predicted an increase in sales to China during the remainder of 2023, after receiving “clarification” of export rules from the Biden Administration. The Dutch chip lithography giant ASML also projected an increase in Chinese sales this year, and its CEO Peter Wennink stated that “the mature semiconductor space is very important and needs to grow. And this is where China is very strong.”

The reported Berlin ban on semiconductor chemicals might have misfired, but it was the first salvo of what will be a long tech war of attrition.

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US debt: The bomb is ticking

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The US debt ceiling will be increased by$ 1.5 trillion, according to a deal between Democrats and Republicans. Markets do not, however, expand quickly, and the price of default insurance ( CDS ) on US government bonds is still skyrocketing.

Why don’t people support the bill put forth by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy? It all revolves around President Joe Biden’s reluctance to give in or, more accurately, reduce public investing. In the end, the leader will reject it even if both houses of Congress vote” Yes.”

Treasury securities are dissipating in the interim, and the offer on a 13-week Treasury bill is approaching 5 %. At this rate, Elon Musk’s anticipation that the nation will mistake will be realized sooner rather than later. The challenge of the US default, on the other hand, is by no means different.

Researchers at Fitch Ratings predict that the US institutional leveraged loan default price will end in 2023 at 2 to 3 % despite the CDS spike, escalating economic headwinds, and recessionary danger. Therefore, never actually 50 %, so there is still nothing to worry about.

What happens if the veil comes down?

Even if the nation doesn’t repay its loans on time, it will still be considered a professional default, in which case the debts, including the interest, may be settled. The primary remaining query is when. In the worst-case approach, the nation’s credit rating might be lowered, which might raise the price of loans.

Speaking of the repercussions for the US market, prices could drop on the one hand, and the challenge of a recession would be even more clear in light of declining borrowing and spending. Everyday Americans’ retirement addresses would also be impacted.

According to Moody’s Analytics, real GDP could fall by more than 4 %, resulting in a reduction in the number of jobs lost and the potential for an employment rate of over 8 %. Additionally, at the worst of the downturn, stock prices could drop by nearly a fifth, wiping out$ 10 trillion in home income.

The S & amp, P 500, fell 17 % in 2011 as a result of the political unrest in Washington over the country’s debt limit. The recovery of past worth took about seven weeks. The results may be even worse if things do not go as planned this day.

Is there a place to hide then?

There are devices like the ProShares Trust Ultrashort 20 Year Treasury ETF, the Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond Fund, and the Powershares DB US Dollar Bearish Fund for those who think a proxy is inevitable. Finally, but most importantly, gold( XAUUSD ) might increase.

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Sri Lanka crisis: Central bank lays out extent of economic problems

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People wait to buy kerosene at a petrol station amid a fuel shortage in Colombo, Sri Lanka.EPA
Submitted by Mariko Oi
columnist for company

The size of Sri Lanka’s worst economic crises in more than 70 years has been determined by the country ‘ central banks.

The bank explained in its yearly report how wages fell short of the skyrocketing cost of everything from bread to fuel last year.

According to the bank,” a number of natural flaws” and” policy mistakes” contributed to causing the South Asian country to experience severe financial problems.

The lender next anticipates a resurgence of economic growth in the coming year.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka forecast the economy will shrink by 2% this year, but expand by 3.3% in 2024.

Compared to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ), which predicted a 3.5 % contraction in 2023 and 1.5 % growth the following year, the prediction is more upbeat.

The report from the central bank also described how prices of fresh fruit, wheat, and eggs more than doubled in September, causing headline inflation to reach almost 70 %.

The cost of travelling and basic services like electricity and water increased even more quickly at the same time.

The nation’s economy contracted by 7.8 % last year, and it made its first foreign debt default since gaining its independence from the UK in 1948.

Failures occur when governments are unable to fulfill all or some of their debt obligations to debts.

Its history with creditors was damaged as a result, making it more difficult to take out loans on foreign markets.

According to the state,” the Sri Lankan business experienced its most difficult year in its post-independence history.”

It continued,” An” unsustainable” financial style” steered the country towards a varied catastrophe.”

Sri Lanka owes China and India approximately$ 7 billion(£ 5.7 billion ). Both nations decided to rebuild their payments in February, giving Sri Lanka more time to pay them back.

The IMF agreed to lend Sri Lanka$ 3 billion last month. That was on top of the World Bank’s$ 600 million payment from the previous year.

Before the IMF evaluates the environment in September, Sri Lanka’s authorities is presently negotiating its mortgage payment with borrowers and creditors.

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