‘Market fundamentalism’ is an obstacle to social progress

A changing world order, a shrinking US empire, migrations and related demographic shifts, and major economic crashes have all enhanced religious fundamentalisms around the world.

Beyond religions, other ideological fundamentalisms likewise provide widely welcomed reassurances. One of the latter, market fundamentalism, invites and deserves criticism as a major obstacle to navigating this time of rapid social change.

Market fundamentalism attributes to that particular social institution a level of perfection and “optimality” quite parallel to what fundamentalist religions attribute to prophets and divinities.

Yet markets are just one among many social means of rationing. Anything scarce relative to demand for it raises the same question: Who will get it and who must do without it?

The market is one institutional way to ration the scarce item. In a market, those who want it bid up its price, leading others to drop out because they cannot or will not pay the higher price. When higher prices have eliminated the excess of demand over supply, scarcity is gone, and no more bidding up is required. Those able and willing to pay the higher prices are satisfied by receiving distributions of the available supply.

The market has thus rationed out the scarce supply. It has determined who gets and who does not. Clearly, the richer a buyer is, the more likely that buyer will welcome, endorse, and celebrate “the market system.”

Markets favor rich buyers. Such buyers in turn will more likely support teachers, clerics, politicians, and others who promote arguments that markets are “efficient,” “socially positive,” or “best for everyone.”

Alternatives acknowledged

Yet even the economics profession, which routinely celebrates markets, includes a sizable – if underemphasized – literature about how, why, and when free (that is, unregulated) markets do not work efficiently or in socially positive ways. That literature has developed concepts like “imperfect competition,” “market distortions,” and “externalities,” to pinpoint markets failing to be efficient or benefit social welfare.

Social leaders who have had to deal with actual markets in society have likewise repeatedly intervened in them when and because markets worked in socially unacceptable ways. Thus we have minimum-wage laws, maximum-interest-rate laws, price-gouging laws, and tariff and trade wars.

Practical people know that “leaving matters to the market” has often yielded disasters (for example, the crashes of 2000, 2008 and 2020) overcome by massive, sustained governmental regulation of and intervention in markets.

So then why do market fundamentalists celebrate a rationing system – the market – that in both theory and practice is more replete with holes than a block of Swiss cheese?

Libertarians go so far as to promote a “pure” market economy as a realizable utopia. Such a pure market system is their policy to fix the massive problems they admit exist in contemporary (impure) capitalism. Libertarians are forever frustrated by their lack of success.

For many reasons, markets ought not claim anyone’s loyalty. Among alternative systems of rationing scarcity, markets are clearly inferior.

For example, in many religious, ethical and moral traditions, basic precepts urge or insist that scarcity be addressed by a rationing system based on their respective concepts of human need.

Many other rationing systems – including the US version used in World War II – dispensed with the market system and substituted a needs-based rationing system managed by the government.

Rationing systems could likewise be based on age, type of work performed, employment status, family situation, health conditions, distance between home and workplace, or other criteria. Their importance relative to one another and relative to some composite notion of “need” could and should be determined democratically.

Indeed, a genuinely democratic society would let the people decide which (if any) scarcities should be rationed by the market and which (if any) by alternative rationing systems.

Ideology vs reality

Market fetishists will surely trot out their favorite rationalizations with which to regale students. For example, they argue that when buyers bid up prices for scarce items, other entrepreneurs will rush in with more supply to capture those higher prices, thereby ending the scarcity.

This simple-minded argument fails to grasp that the entrepreneurs cashing in on the higher prices for scarce items have every incentive and many of the means to prevent, delay, or block altogether the entry of new suppliers. Actual business history shows that they often do so successfully.

In other words, glib assurances about reactions to market prices are ideological noise and little else.

We can also catch the market fetishizers in their own contradictions. When justifying the sky-high pay packages of mega-corporate CEOs, we are told their scarcity requires their high prices. The same folks explain to us that to overcome scarcity of wage labor, it was necessary to cut US workers’ pandemic-era unemployment supplement, not to raise their wages.

During times of scarcity, markets often reveal to capitalists the possibility of earning higher profits on lower volumes of product and sales. If they prioritize profits and when they can afford to bar others’ entry, they will produce and sell less at higher prices to a richer clientele. We are watching that process unfold in the United States now.

The neoliberal turn in US capitalism since the 1970s yielded big profits from a globalized market system.

However, outside the purview of neoliberal ideology, that global market catapulted the Chinese economy forward far faster than the United States’ and far faster than the US found acceptable. Thus the US junked its market celebrations (substituting intense “security” concerns) to justify massive governmental interventions in markets to thwart Chinese development: a trade war, tariff wars, chip subsidies, and sanctions.

Awkwardly and unpersuasively, the economic profession keeps teaching about the efficiency of free or pure markets, while students learn from the news all about protectionism, market management, and the need to turn away from the free market gods previously venerated.

Then too the market-based health-care system of the United States challenges market fundamentalism: The US has 4.3% of the world population but accounted for 16.9% of the world’s Covid-19 deaths. Might the market system bear a significant share of the blame and fault here?

So dangerous is the potential disruption of ideological consensus that it becomes vital to avoid asking the question, let alone pursuing a serious answer.

During the pandemic, millions of workers were told that they were “essential” and “front-line responders.” A grateful society appreciated them. As they often noted, the market had not rewarded them accordingly. They got very low wages. They must not have been scarce enough to command better.

That’s how markets work. Markets do not reward what is most valuable and essential. They never did. They reward what is scarce relative to people’s ability to buy, no matter the social importance we give to the actual work and roles people play.

Markets pander to where the money is. No wonder the rich subsidize market fundamentalism. The wonder is why the rest of society believes or tolerates it.

This article was produced by Economy for All, a project of the Independent Media Institute, which provided it to Asia Times.

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Taiwan pushes FTA after closing US trade deal

Taiwan is seeking to reach a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States after both sides concluded a trade initiative to boost their economic ties.

The United States Trade Representative announced on Thursday that the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO) have concluded negotiations on the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade.

The agreement came just before the three-day G7 Summit started in Hiroshima in Japan on Friday.

Taiwanese media said Hsiao Bi-khim, representative of the Republic of China to the US, will visit Washington and sign the first phase of the trade initiative with her US counterpart within the coming weeks.

The first phase of this agreement covers five areas, including customs administration and trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, domestic services regulation, anticorruption and small-and-medium-sized-enterprises (SMEs).

“This agreement is not only the most comprehensive trade agreement signed between Taiwan and the US since 1979, but also represents an important milestone for Taiwan’s economic and trade system to meet high international standards,” the Office of Trade Negotiations, Taiwan’s Executive Yuan says in a statement. “This is also an important step in completing the Taiwan-US FTA by means of building blocks.”

In January 1979, the US established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China as the Chinese Communist Party claimed to be a united front with the West against the Soviet Union. It also ended its diplomatic relations with Taiwan but has maintained trade and cultural exchanges with the island under the Taiwan Relations Act
 
On Friday, Beijing said it resolutely opposes the US-Taiwan Trade Initiative.

“China firmly opposes all forms of official interaction with the Taiwan region by countries having diplomatic ties with China, including negotiating or concluding agreements with implications of sovereignty and of official nature,” Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said Friday. 

Wang said the US must stop sending wrong signals to Taiwan separatists in the name of forming trade and economic ties with the island. He said the US should strictly abide by the one-China principle and the three Joint Communiqués with real actions.

Meanwhile, the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) announced on Friday that China had reopened its doors to Taiwanese tour groups with immediate effect.

“We warmly welcome Taiwan compatriots to see the beautiful scenery and recent developments in the mainland,” said TAO spokesperson Ma Xiaoguang.
 
The symbolic move is seen as Beijing’s effort to increase exchanges with the island ahead of its presidential election in early 2024.

The central committee of Kuomintang (KMT), favored by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), on Wednesday nominated New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih as KMT’s presidential candidate without having a primary election within the party.

Hou Yu-ih, Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Regional trade deals

In September 2021, Taiwan formally applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) but progress has been slow so far.
 
In May last year, the Biden administration launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) but did not include Taiwan as a founding member. Founding nations include Australia, Brunei, Fiji India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. 

Last June, the US and Taiwan said they would begin bilateral trade talks. Both sides met initially last November and held a four-day negotiation in January this year with fruitful results.
 
“It’s usually easier to reach a bilateral trade deal than a multilateral one that involves more parties,” Darson Chiu, a research fellow of the Department of International Affairs and Macroeconomic Forecasting Center, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, said in January. “The US-Taiwan Trade Initiative will help Taiwan enter the IPEF.” 

On Friday, the US and Taiwan finalized the first phase of the trade initiative. Taiwan’s Minister Without Portfolio and Trade Representative John Deng said earlier this month that the second phase of the agreement, which covers seven areas such as agriculture and labor, should be reached by the end of this year.
 
“This accomplishment represents an important step forward in strengthening the US-Taiwan economic relationship,” US Trade Representative Katherine Tai said Thursday. “We look forward to continuing these negotiations and finalizing a robust and high-standard trade agreement that tackles pressing 21st century economic challenges.”

Tai said US businesses will be able to bring more products to Taiwan and Taiwanese customers, while creating more transparent and streamlined regulatory procedures that can facilitate investment and economic opportunities in both markets, particularly for SMEs.

Chinese pundits’ criticism

While Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said Taiwan will be able to sign a FTA with the US, Chinese commentators poured cold water on the idea.

“The biggest intention of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to sign the so-called US-Taiwan Trade Initiative is to sell Taiwan to the US and maximize the US’s benefits on the island,” Kong Fan, a Sichuan-based reporter for Nouvelles d’Europe, a pro-Beijing newspaper, writes in an article on Friday. 

Kong says the DPP wants to use this deal to form stronger political and military ties with the US in order to promote Taiwan independence.

He says the US avoided discussing tariff exemptions and market access but highlighted its benefits. He says before this, the US has been pressuring TSMC to build foundries in Arizona and the Taiwanese government to buy US weapons.

On June 2 last year, Tseng Ming-chung, convener of the KMT legislative caucus, criticized the DPP for exaggerating the benefits of the US-Taiwan Trade Initiative, which does not mention FTA or CPTPP membership. 

But after seeing the actual trade initiative on Friday, Tseng said the Tsai administration should “sign it as soon as possible” and make good use of the close bilateral relations to resolve tariff and double taxation issues with the US.

Read: Beijing cools Taiwan issues ahead of G7 Summit

Read: US-Taiwan trade deal talks defy China’s warning

Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3

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Speeding toward a ChatGPT-powered Wall Street

Artificial Intelligence-powered tools, such as ChatGPT, have the potential to revolutionize the efficiency, effectiveness and speed of the work humans do.

And this is true in financial markets as much as in sectors like health care, manufacturing and pretty much every other aspect of our lives.

I’ve been researching financial markets and algorithmic trading for 14 years. While AI offers lots of benefits, the growing use of these technologies in financial markets also points to potential perils. A look at Wall Street’s past efforts to speed up trading by embracing computers and AI offers important lessons on the implications of using them for decision-making.

Program trading fuelled Black Monday

In the early 1980s, fueled by advancements in technology and financial innovations such as derivatives, institutional investors began using computer programs to execute trades based on predefined rules and algorithms. This helped them complete large trades quickly and efficiently.

Back then, these algorithms were relatively simple and were primarily used for so-called index arbitrage, which involves trying to profit from discrepancies between the price of a stock index – like the S&P 500 – and that of the stocks it’s composed of.

As technology advanced and more data became available, this kind of program trading became increasingly sophisticated, with algorithms able to analyze complex market data and execute trades based on a wide range of factors. These program traders continued to grow in number on the largey unregulated trading freeways – on which over a trillion dollars worth of assets change hands every day – causing market volatility to increase dramatically.

Eventually this resulted in the massive stock market crash in 1987 known as Black Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered what was at the time the biggest percentage drop in its history, and the pain spread throughout the globe.

In response, regulatory authorities implemented a number of measures to restrict the use of program trading, including circuit breakers that halt trading when there are significant market swings and other limits. But despite these measures, program trading continued to grow in popularity in the years following the crash.

HFT: Program trading on steroids

Fast forward 15 years, to 2002, when the New York Stock Exchange introduced a fully automated trading system. As a result, program traders gave way to more sophisticated automations with much more advanced technology: High-frequency trading.

HFT uses computer programs to analyze market data and execute trades at extremely high speeds. Unlike program traders that bought and sold baskets of securities over time to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity – a difference in price of similar securities that can be exploited for profit – high-frequency traders use powerful computers and high-speed networks to analyze market data and execute trades at lightning-fast speeds.

High-frequency traders can conduct trades in approximately one 64-millionth of a second, compared with the several seconds it took traders in the 1980s.

These trades are typically very short term in nature and may involve buying and selling the same security multiple times in a matter of nanoseconds. AI algorithms analyze large amounts of data in real time and identify patterns and trends that are not immediately apparent to human traders. This helps traders make better decisions and execute trades at a faster pace than would be possible manually.

Another important application of AI in HFT is natural language processing, which involves analyzing and interpreting human language data such as news articles and social media posts. By analyzing this data, traders can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

Benefits of AI trading

These AI-based, high-frequency traders operate very differently than people do.

The human brain is slow, inaccurate and forgetful. It is incapable of quick, high-precision, floating-point arithmetic needed for analyzing huge volumes of data for identifying trade signals. Computers are millions of times faster, with essentially infallible memory, perfect attention and limitless capability for analyzing large volumes of data in split milliseconds.

And, so, just like most technologies, HFT provides several benefits to stock markets.

These traders typically buy and sell assets at prices very close to the market price, which means they don’t charge investors high fees. This helps ensure that there are always buyers and sellers in the market, which in turn helps to stabilize prices and reduce the potential for sudden price swings.

High-frequency trading can also help to reduce the impact of market inefficiencies by quickly identifying and exploiting mispricing in the market. For example, HFT algorithms can detect when a particular stock is undervalued or overvalued and execute trades to take advantage of these discrepancies. By doing so, this kind of trading can help to correct market inefficiencies and ensure that assets are priced more accurately.

a crowd of people move around a large room with big screens all over the place
Stock exchanges used to be packed with traders buying and selling securities, as in this scene from 1983. Today’s trading floors are increasingly empty as AI-powered computers handle more and more of the work. Photo: AP / Richard Drew

The downsides

But speed and efficiency can also cause harm.

HFT algorithms can react so quickly to news events and other market signals that they can cause sudden spikes or drops in asset prices.

Additionally, HFT financial firms are able to use their speed and technology to gain an unfair advantage over other traders, further distorting market signals. The volatility created by these extremely sophisticated AI-powered trading beasts led to the so-called flash crash in May 2010, when stocks plunged and then recovered in a matter of minutes – erasing and then restoring about $1 trillion in market value.

Since then, volatile markets have become the new normal. In 2016 research, two co-authors and I found that volatility – a measure of how rapidly and unpredictably prices move up and down – increased significantly after the introduction of HFT.

The speed and efficiency with which high-frequency traders analyze the data mean that even a small change in market conditions can trigger a large number of trades, leading to sudden price swings and increased volatility.

In addition, research I published with several other colleagues in 2021 shows that most high-frequency traders use similar algorithms, which increases the risk of market failure. That’s because as the number of these traders increases in the marketplace, the similarity in these algorithms can lead to similar trading decisions.

This means that all of the high-frequency traders might trade on the same side of the market if their algorithms release similar trading signals. That is, they all might try to sell in case of negative news or buy in case of positive news. If there is no one to take the other side of the trade, markets can fail.

Enter ChatGPT

That brings us to a new world of ChatGPT-powered trading algorithms and similar programs. They could take the problem of too many traders on the same side of a deal and make it even worse.

In general, humans, left to their own devices, will tend to make a diverse range of decisions. But if everyone’s deriving their decisions from a similar artificial intelligence, this can limit the diversity of opinion.

Consider an extreme, nonfinancial situation in which everyone depends on ChatGPT to decide on the best computer to buy. Consumers are already very prone to herding behavior, in which they tend to buy the same products and models. For example, reviews on Yelp, Amazon and so on motivate consumers to pick among a few top choices.

Since decisions made by the generative AI-powered chatbot are based on past training data, there would be a similarity in the decisions suggested by the chatbot. It is highly likely that ChatGPT would suggest the same brand and model to everyone. This might take herding to a whole new level and could lead to shortages in certain products and service as well as severe price spikes.

This becomes more problematic when the AI making the decisions is informed by biased and incorrect information. AI algorithms can reinforce existing biases when systems are trained on biased, old or limited data sets. And ChatGPT and similar tools have been criticized for making factual errors.

AI is making strides in learning the English language. Image: Facebook

In addition, since market crashes are relatively rare, there isn’t much data on them. Since generative AIs depend on data training to learn, their lack of knowledge about them could make them more likely to happen.

For now, at least, it seems most banks won’t be allowing their employees to take advantage of ChatGPT and similar tools. Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and several other lenders have already banned their use on trading-room floors, citing privacy concerns.

But I strongly believe banks will eventually embrace generative AI, once they resolve concerns they have with it. The potential gains are too significant to pass up – and there’s a risk of being left behind by rivals.

But the risks to financial markets, the global economy and everyone are also great, so I hope they tread carefully.

Pawan Jain, Assistant Professor of Finance, West Virginia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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G7 leaders must resist US calls for more protectionism

The Group of Seven Summit taking place in Japan this weekend could herald the start of a new era of global protectionism as the US continues its push for a G7-wide “screening of outbound investments” to China in certain cutting-edge technologies.

The European Union and the UK are also reported to be discussing a reinforcement of export controls on semiconductors and other technology that is regarded as critical to China.

As leaders of the world’s seven largest so-called “advanced” economies, which dominate global trade and the international financial system, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who was in Japan last week for a meeting of finance ministers, has said, “Obviously, it would be most effective if there’s coordinated action by a group of like-minded countries and agreement that this is a useful approach.”

She added that the United States would continue “informal” discussions on the measures with other G7 members, which are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK.

The existing restrictions to China from the US and others have already led to a sharp fall in high-end tech exports, and with geopolitical competitions between the US and China seemingly intensifying, it is likely Western countries, led by America, will impose further export controls on new sectors and industries. These could include biopharma, biotech, and agricultural products, such as seeds.

While clearly every country needs to look out for its own interests in all levels, I am skeptical about the creeping protectionism and urge political and business leaders to pursue a safe and secure form of globalization.

As we have borne witness to in recent decades, globalization promotes economic growth by facilitating the free flow of goods, services, and capital across borders. When countries open up to international trade, they access larger markets, benefit from economies of scale, and attract foreign investment. This, in turn, leads to increased productivity, job creation, and higher living standards.

Also, critically, it encourages the exchange of ideas, knowledge and technologies among countries. It allows for the transfer of best practices, encourages innovation through competition, and facilitates international collaboration on research and development. 

Through allowing the import of goods and services from different countries, consumers typically gain access to a wider range of products at competitive prices. On the other hand, protectionist measures restrict choices, limit competition, and raise prices for consumers.

Globalization has the potential to lift millions of people out of poverty. By integrating into the global economy, developing countries can attract foreign investment, access new markets, and diversify their economies. 

In addition, a rejection of protectionism fosters international cooperation and diplomacy. By engaging in open trade and maintaining strong economic ties, G7 members can build mutually beneficial relationships with other nations.

This can lead to improved diplomatic relations, increased stability, and enhanced collaboration on global challenges such as climate change, cybersecurity, and public health.

While globalization has its challenges, the benefits outweigh the drawbacks. By embracing globalization and rejecting protectionism, G7 members can contribute to a more prosperous, interconnected, and peaceful world.

Nigel Green is founder and CEO of deVere Group. Follow him on Twitter @nigeljgreen.

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S,100 for a food delivery job in Singapore: Rider accounts for sale illegally on Carousell

What was left unsaid on the Carousell listings is that people interested in obtaining such accounts are likely to be foreigners. Only Singaporeans and permanent residents can legally work as riders for food delivery platforms. 

Mr Luqmanul Hakim, a local delivery rider, told CNA he also found food delivery rider advertisements in a Facebook group for Malaysians looking for jobs in Singapore. When he replied to one such listing by posing as an interested buyer, he was told he would be working as a rider for foodpanda or Deliveroo.

When CNA contacted the same person, she said vacancies were closed, but that she would reach out if a delivery rider position opened up.

SECURITY MEASURES IN PLACE: DELIVERY PLATFORMS

In response to queries from CNA, foodpanda said it has measures in place to detect improper use of its accounts.

For example, it introduced a “selfie verification” feature in October 2022. Delivery riders must take a selfie of themselves before the start of their shift. Those who are caught exploiting the verification process may have their accounts suspended or potentially blacklisted, foodpanda said. 

Deliveroo’s website states that riders are allowed to appoint substitutes to use their accounts, but these substitute riders have to meet age and residency requirements, among others.

“We have a number of measures to identify fraudulent behaviour and keep these measures under regular review, including (trialling) and rolling out facial verification checks across our international markets with the aim of bringing this to Singapore soon,” Deliveroo said.

The company added that it encourages riders to report anyone they believe to have violated the rules.

In response to queries, Carousell said it is “not privy to and not in a position to enforce” the agreements made between the food delivery platform and the rider.

“However we will review on a case-by-case basis if the platform is able to provide evidence of known illegal activity,” its spokesperson said.

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‘Unified’ G7 hits Russia with new sanctions

Economists are divided about just how much G7 and other sanctions have hurt the Russian war effort. The Russian economy contracted 2.1 per cent in 2022, a trend that continued early this year. But Moscow has adapted quickly, introducing strict capital controls, diverting trade to allies like China and reportedlyContinue Reading

US default, China decoupling hang heavy over Hiroshima

TOKYO — Japan’s decision to hold this weekend’s Group of Seven (G-7) summit in Hiroshima is appearing more and more “on the nose” with each passing day.

Worries that Russia might use nuclear weapons on Ukraine were part of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s calculus in choosing the city that was the first military target of such armaments in human history. Since that call, though, two economic nuclear options have emerged to fuel a bull market in Hiroshima symbolism.

One is the default drama that risks restoring the US to developing nation status. Republicans toying with financial Armageddon have US President Joe Biden truncating his Asia trip, scrapping stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea.

The other is how to play the China “decoupling” dynamic threatening to blow up world markets — and the Global South nations that host Kishida is inviting to the G-7. Along with Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US, Japan has invited leaders from India, Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia and African Union and Pacific Islands nations.

Yet try as they may to send a clear message of unity versus China, G7 officials are likely to find that domestic disunity undermines any grand pronouncements, let alone bold joint actions.

Biden is sure to confront a torrent of questions about default risks. In just a matter of weeks, says US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Washington will run out of cash. If so, all hell would break loose for every economy represented in Hiroshima – and those far beyond.

“If it does ultimately default on US Treasuries this would undermine the integrity of the world’s most popular ‘risk-free’ asset used in central bank reserves, low-risk private investments and as collateral,” says economist Will Denyer at Gavekal Research. “It would disrupt the global financial system and undermine the reserve status of dollar-denominated assets.”

Between Japan, China and other major Asian holders of US government debt, this region is sitting on somewhere near US$3.5 trillion of Treasuries. Yet Asia’s real exposure is its trade-reliant economies, which would be completely upended by the resulting surge in global bond yields, plunging share prices and gyrating exchange rates.

Even just the risk of the US missing a bond payment would do monumental damage. Joseph Abate, strategist at Barclays Plc, thinks US coffers might dip below $50 billion between June 5 and June 15. “Even this amount is too close for comfort a week or so ahead of mid-June tax date,” Abate says.

Adding to the dramas facing the G-7, this is a 100% self-inflicted threat to the global system manufactured in Washington by craven US lawmakers.

Craven: US Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy could soon preside over the first ever US debt default. Image: CNN Screengrab

Sushil Wadhwani, chief investment officer at PGIM Wadhwani, notes that “in an increasingly polarized environment, politicians will need to see significant market turbulence in order to reach an agreement.”

As such, Wadhwani adds, “there’s a concern that the market is being complacent and that investors could be in for a sudden shock. Investors would not want to see unexpected fiscal tightening at a time when the risks of a US recession are already rising, and the possibility of a hard landing is increasing.”

All this plays right into China’s hands. To be sure, Chinese leader Xi Jinping won’t welcome how a US default derails his economy’s ability to meet this year’s 5% growth target. Nor would Beijing be happy suffering epic losses on the $865 million worth of US Treasury securities it owns.

Yet Kishida’s Japan would lose more on its $1.1 trillion of US government debt. And by playing Russian roulette with America’s credit rating again, the Republicans led by US House of Representative Speaker Kevin McCarthy would make Xi’s case for him that the global economy needs an alternative to the dollar.

“Again,” because the last time Republicans played games with raising the debt ceiling on Washington’s ability to borrow, in 2011, Standard & Poor’s yanked away its AAA credit rating.

As this reckless game plays out anew, Xi’s pro-yuan lobbying effort gets that much easier. If not the yuan, perhaps a “BRICS” currency, as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other anti-dollar-hegemony factions join forces.

One could argue decoupling efforts are a nuclear option all their own. The trade wars that former president Donald Trump launched against China from 2017 to 2021 disrupted US-China dynamics plenty. But Biden’s surgical focus on Chinese companies’ access to vital technology – and US prodding of allies to join in – accelerated the decoupling train.

This weekend’s stop in Hiroshima is an opportunity to gain broader clarity on what would constitute an economic divorce from China Inc and, more importantly, how to do it without wrecking Asia’s 2023 and beyond. Even the basic terminology is complicated, with some G-7 members and other leaders visiting Hiroshima favoring “de-risking” phraseology.

Biden’s White House has ambitious plans for the weekend. As the Wall Street Journal reports, “the US and its allies are poised to increase pressure on China” with “an expected joint statement rejecting use of economic retaliation against nations over policy disputes and other disagreements.”

The WSJ adds that “the anticipated statement isn’t expected to mention any country by name” but “comes as concerns mount among the US and its allies over Beijing’s increasing use of what its critics call ‘economic coercion’ to show its displeasure with other countries.”

US-China decoupling’ is gathering pace as global nations are pressured to take sides. Image: iStock

A wrinkle that few saw coming is how Europe’s position toward China has in many ways become more adversarial than Biden’s. This might open an opportunity for the US to take something of a middle ground. Even so, leaders of the largest and mid-size industrialized economies will find severing commercial ties with China all but impossible.

Even just discerning where G-7 economies end and China begins will be a Herculean task. Chatter about reshoring industry, ring-fencing supply chains and tech self-sufficiency makes for great politics but precarious economics from Washington to Berlin to Tokyo.

Yet a recent report from S&P Global Ratings calls the process “unavoidable” despite the growing knowledge that it “will be costly” for the global economy.

“Global tech’s transition away from China will strain efficiencies and may consume much management focus over the next three to five years,” argues S&P credit analyst Hins Li. “Moreover, firms that move capacity out of China risk losing some access to that market, which many entities rely on for much of their growth.”

Nevertheless, Li points out, all available data show that the tech industry’s biggest global players are loosening their China ties. The catalysts range from China’s production disruptions amid Covid-19, geopolitical tension and a sharp escalation in curbs on tech exports. This generated a bull market in “concentration risk” in boardrooms around the globe.

In its report, S&P zeroes in on global laptop production. In 2021, China’s share of global laptop production topped 80%. By 2025, S&P thinks that share will fall by at least 10-20 percentage points. This will be a direct result of tech’s biggest names redistributing manufacturing capacity out of Xi’s economy.

For handsets, S&P estimates China’s share of production will drop by between 5 percentage points and 15 percentage points by 2025. The proportion of iPhones that Apple Inc makes in China will drop as rivals like India raise their manufacturing games. S&P notes that India’s iPhone industry will likely at least double by 2025. That compared to today’s mid-single digit percentage of total production.

“Spreading out operations won’t be as efficient as utilizing giant factories in China, which maximize economies of scale and draw on existing robust supplier networks, infrastructure, and talent pools,” S&P writes. “Some companies may retain redundant capacity in China in case they encounter production hiccups while ramping up new sites.”

Even so, this weekend’s G-7 talks are just as likely to get bogged down in petty infighting and a torrent of sideline topics that leaders will bring to Hiroshima. In addition to Biden’s debt default nightmare, French President Emmanuel Macron faces public outrage back home over steps to raise the national retirement age from 62 to 64 later this year.

Macron’s team, meantime, is feuding with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, which it has called a “far-right government” with a policy mix “incapable of fixing Italy’s migration problems.”

Ukraine says it needs bigger and better weapons to defeat Russia. Image: Twitter / New Statesman

The G-7 confab also comes as Ukraine seeks additional aid, both financial and military, and Russia continues to dig in for the long haul. Along with worries about Vladimir Putin’s threats to use tactical nukes in the conflict, G-7 leaders are sure to be questioned about how Moscow’s economy is skating around global sanctions quarter after quarter. Support for Taiwan will come up early and often, too.

Also likely to come up in G-7 discussions and press conferences: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political survival instincts ahead of a May 28 runoff election. This drama in Turkey, a NATO member, will matter greatly for the course of everything from Russia-Ukraine dynamics to the state of play in the Middle East.

Still, the 800-pound gorilla in the room during any of these discussions will be the default insanity following Team Biden at every turn. Defusing that existential threat to global stability 7,000 miles away in Washington will be easier said than done.

Follow William Pesek on Twitter at @WilliamPesek

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War rooms and bailouts: How US is preparing for a default

Convening war rooms, planning speedy bailouts and raising house-on-fire alarm bells: Those are a few of the ways the biggest banks and financial regulators are preparing for a potential default on US debt.

“You hope it doesn’t happen, but hope is not a strategy – so you prepare for it,” Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, the nation’s second-biggest lender, said in a television interview.

The doomsday planning is a reaction to a lack of progress in talks between President Joe Biden and House Republicans over raising the US$31.4 trillion debt ceiling – another round of negotiations took place on May 16, 2023.

Without an increase in the debt limit, the US can’t borrow more money to cover its bills – all of which have already been agreed to by Congress – and in practical terms that means a default.

What happens if a default occurs is an open question, but economists – including me – generally expect financial chaos as access to credit dries up and borrowing costs rise quickly for companies and consumers.

A severe and prolonged global economic recession would be all but guaranteed, and the reputation of the US and the dollar as beacons of stability and safety would be further tarnished.

But how do you prepare for an event that many expect would trigger the worst global recession since the 1930s?

‘Default doomscrolling’ again, Mr. Powell? Photo: Kimimasa Mayama / Pool Photo via AP / The Conversation

Preparing for panic

Jamie Dimon, who runs JPMorgan Chase, the biggest US bank, told Bloomberg he’s been convening a weekly war room to discuss a potential default and how the bank should respond. The meetings are likely to become more frequent as June 1 – the date on which the US might run out of cash – nears.

Dimon described the wide range of economic and financial effects that the group must consider such as the impact on “contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients” – basically every corner of the financial system – at home and abroad.

“I don’t think it’s going to happen — because it gets catastrophic, and the closer you get to it, you will have panic,” he said.

That’s when rational decision-making gives way to fear and irrationality. Markets overtaken by these emotions are chaotic and leave lasting economic scars.

Banks haven’t revealed many of the details of how they are responding, but we can glean some clues from how they’ve reacted to past crises, such as the financial crisis in 2008 or the debt ceiling showdowns of 2011 and 2013.

One important way banks can prepare is by reducing exposure to Treasury securities – some or all of which could be considered to be in default once the U.S. exhausts its ability to pay all of its bill. All US debts are referred to as Treasury bills or bonds.

The value of Treasurys is likely to plunge in the case of a default, which could weaken bank balance sheets even more. The recent bank crisis, in fact, was prompted primarily by a drop in the market value of Treasurys due to the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year. And a default would only make that problem worse, with close to 190 banks at risk of failure as of March 2023.

Another strategy banks can use to hedge their exposure to a sell-off in Treasurys is to buy credit default swaps, financial instruments that allow an investor to offset credit risk. Data suggests this is already happening, as the cost to protect US government debt from default is higher than that of Brazil, Greece and Mexico, all of which have defaulted multiple times and have much lower credit ratings.

But buying credit default swaps at ever-higher prices limits a third key preventive measure for banks: keeping their cash balances as high as possible so they’re able and ready to deal with whatever happens in a default.

Four white men sit on white couches in a large office filled with presidential portraits.
Little has come out of fiscal negotiations between Mitch McConnell, left, Kevin McCarthy, second from left, President Joe Biden, second from right, and Chuck Schumer. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Evan Vucci

Keeping the financial plumbing working

Financial industry groups and financial regulators have also gamed out a potential default with an eye toward keeping the financial system running as best they can.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, for example, has been updating its playbook to dictate how players in the Treasurys market will communicate in case of a default.

And the Federal Reserve, which is broadly responsible for ensuring financial stability, has been pondering a US default for over a decade. One such instance came in 2013, when Republicans demanded the elimination of the Affordable Care Act in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Ultimately, Republicans capitulated and raised the limit one day before the U.S. was expected to run out of cash.

One of the biggest concerns Fed officials had at the time, according to a meeting transcript recently made public, is that the US Treasury would no longer be able to access financial markets to “roll over” maturing debt.

While hitting the current ceiling prevents the US from issuing new debt that exceeds $31.4 trillion, the government still has to roll existing debt into new debt as it comes due. On May 15, 2023, for example, the government issued just under $100 billion in notes and bonds to replace maturing debt and raise cash.

The risk is that there would be too few buyers at one of the government’s daily debt auctions – at which investors from around the world bid to buy Treasury bills and bonds. If that happens, the government would have to use its cash on hand to pay back investors who hold maturing debt.

That would further reduce the amount of cash available for Social Security payments, federal employees wages and countless other items the government spent over $6 trillion on in 2022. This would be nothing short of apocalyptic if the Fed could not save the day.

To mitigate that risk, the Fed said it could could immediately step in as a buyer of last resort for Treasurys, quickly lower its lending rates and provide whatever funding is needed in an attempt to prevent financial contagion and collapse. The Fed is likely having the same conversations and preparing similar actions today.

A self-imposed catastrophe

Ultimately, I hope that Congress does what it has done in every previous debt ceiling scare: raise the limit.

These contentious debates over lifting it have become too commonplace, even as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle express concerns about the growing federal debt and the need to rein in government spending.

Even when these debates result in some bipartisan effort to rein in spending, as they did in 2011, history shows they fail, as energy analyst Autumn Engebretson and I recently explained in a review of that episode.

That’s why one of the most important ways banks are preparing for such an outcome is by speaking out about the serious damage not raising the ceiling is likely to inflict on not only their companies but everyone else, too. This increases the pressure on political leaders to reach a deal.

Going back to my original question, how do you prepare for such a self-imposed catastrophe? The answer is, no one should have to.

John W Diamond is Director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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In Taiwan, former UK PM Truss warns against appeasing China

TAIPEI: Former British prime minister Liz Truss will say in Taiwan on Wednesday (May 16) that the West must avoid appeasing China and show unwavering support for the self-governed island, in a speech that risks further damaging Britain’s relations with Beijing. Truss is the most well-known British politician to visitContinue Reading