Prigozhin’s ‘warrior class’ threatens Putin from the Right

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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the creator of Wagner Private Military Company( PMC ), gave another of his fierbrand interviews as he declared victory in the Bakhmut battle.

He vehemently denounced the Russian defense minister and his chief of staff, Russia’s” heavy state ,” which included the political administration, the” quasi-defense” establishment, and the elites who protect their children from the front lines of battle.

He admitted that he doesn’t know why the war in Ukraine is being fought, but added that” as long as there is a battle, we have to battle it well.” How Prigozhin gets away with it when people are receiving jail terms for much milder criticisms begs the question of how he spoke the terrible truth in this.

He represents the opinions of a sizable portion of Soviet culture, is the answer. These people support conflict, but they criticize how it is fought and are disgusted by the corruption and incompetence that have claimed the lives of soldiers.

Those who can work politically and, if necessary, forcefully, giving Prigozhin a sense of common resonance, share this anti-elite but” nationalistic” sentiment.

The” heroes” of the so-called Russian Spring, the men who participated in the insurgency in Donbas starting in 2014, stand out among these figures. The widespread belief in the west is that this uprising was solely a Kremlin plot.

However, my conversations with field officers and officials like Igor Strelkov( real name Girkin ) suggested then. Many of these officers were driven by personal views; they dreamed of creating a brand-new” Novorossiya” in eastern Ukraine that idealized Russia, as opposed to the crony capitalism that defines Putin’s Russia.

I was certain that they were sincere in their ideas and willing to sacrifice both their own and other women’s lives for a greater cause. I’ve come to believe that this group does play a part in any dire situations, and it might soon happen.

The Russian state, which at first was unsure of how to handle these strongly pro-Russia but disorderly individuals, came to understand that they could pose a threat. Since 2017, they have begun to get repressed.

Rightwing Russian nationalism’s primary website academic tool, Sputnik-i-Pogrom, was blocked, and its director Yegor Prosvirnin passed away in dubious circumstances in 2021. Those who did survive were kept in the dark about politics and the media, so they focused their efforts on” milblogging.”

Men who enjoy fighting

These are men who adore conflict and everything associated with it, including the tools, strategies, traditional battles, wargaming, attire, and thrills of combat. They are present in all societies, but in Russia, the action in Ukraine gave them the opportunity to rise to social fame.

These” online warriors” emerged from the shadows and entered politics. Big audiences are drawn to their resources on the well-known software Telegram.

More people in Russia have subscribed to channels like Rybar( 1.13 million subscribers ), WarGonzo( 1.3 million ), and Igor Strelkov, the former” minister of defense” of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic( 790.000 ), who started the initial uprising in 2014.

In a film released earlier this year, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, can be seen speaking in Bakhmut. Photo: @ concordgroup_ official / Telegram channel

They identify as voenkory, or war correspondents, and engage with their people by posting articles and videos. Viewers value their frank assessments of the reality on the front lines, their knowledgeable sources, engaging news, and engaging guests.

Social feelings are important, and the” soldiers” have developed a popular sub-culture. It has its own legends, including Vladlen Tatarsky( Maxim Fomin ), who stole money, served time, escaped from jail after being shelled by a tank, participated in the Donbas uprising, wrote three memoir books, and served as the channel’s host. In a recent targeted burst, he was killed. Even if it was a brief experience, war was an experience worth having for Tatarsky and those like him.

Tatarsky was involved in the YouTube channel” Reverse Side of the Medal ,” which promotes military garb and insignia like the Wagner group’s red skull and two mortar shells, which have gained popularity as a badge of honor.

clash of cultures

Thus, two very different military cultures collide: a rigid and top-heavy ministry of defense establishment that is supported by the state, and the guerrilla tactics of volunteers and private military companies( PMCs ) that rely on initiative and improvization.

These two teams are afraid of one another. The defense ministry has been reticent to give Wagner a lot of weapons. Prigozhin criticizes them for the defense failure in the meantime. Putin, meanwhile, observes and seems to like the generals’ opposition.

The state may have to rely on this” warrior” district both on the front lines and to help keep a pro-war momentum in society, so it cannot afford to placate them. However, the Kremlin is even aware of the dangers involved because” warriors” like Prigozhin can be difficult to handle and may grow ambitious.

Individual enmities and divergent perspectives on the future of Russia exist, and their camp is not consistent. However, signs of a social force that could affect Russia’s post-Putin results are starting to take shape.

This district will be the one most willing to take action if an internal turmoil— such as Putin’s sudden death, for instance— opens a window of opportunity and the ruling elite loses power. They will have access to organizational, economical, and advertising resources thanks to people like Prigozhin.

Prigozhin may rise to the position of functionary, even if he is not a monarch. Therefore, we must look beyond merely observing the Kremlin’s hands in all directions to identify autonomous actors who have the potential to move and shake the new order.

At King’s College London, Anna Matveeva is a visiting senior research fellow.

Under a Creative Commons license, this post has been republished from The Conversation. Read the article in its entirety.

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Will China build a military presence in the Middle East?

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Beijing’s political and military ambitions in the Middle East have been the focus of intense speculation ever since China brokered the a & nbsp, Saudi-Iran peace deal, in March.

Although the majority of observers concur that China’s regional strategic objectives go beyond conventional energy trades, there is debate over whether it should send troops to work its power in the Middle East in order to remove the United States.

Those two inquiries are naturally related and moral. Beijing’s capacity to influence home and intra-regional dynamics is expanding as China becomes more involved in local socioeconomic, political, and diplomatic affairs.

Strategiticians can’t help but wonder what this means for America’s position in the region and the security structures its existence has enabled in light of the great-power competition between the US and China.

In the oil-rich place, China obviously has national security interests to safeguard. More than & nbsp, or 53 % of Beijing’s crude oil imports, comes from the Middle East, a source of hydrocarbons that Beijing cannot risk losing. It makes sense to believe that China would want to have troops in the area given this dependence and the danger it presents in case of a military issue. & nbsp,

reasonable, but is the presumption accurate? Perhaps no.

Production and transportation are the two factors that have an impact on Beijing’s power supply. The biggest dangers to the past are inter-state conflicts or local unrest. The difficulties in protecting strength transportation are more varied and include, in the worst-case scenario, a naval blockade, local instability, disruption to sea-lane communications, and piracy.

The risk of disturbance to production and transportation will continue to exist as long as China’s reliance on Middle Eastern energy resources is great.

The leaders of China, however, are pragmatic and make a distinction between risk and vulnerability. Beijing believes it is vulnerable but not necessarily resilient despite its significant reliance on Middle Eastern strength. This is due to the fact that both China and the Middle East depend on one another for their crude. There is a shared dislike of upheaval.

Moreover, China wouldn’t be the only survivor in the event of a regional problems that interfered with production or transportation. Oil-importing nations from Asia to Europe may be impacted, a circumstance that neither China nor the US wants. In addition, & nbsp,

Taiwan is currently the biggest possible battlefield between the US and China. Washington could use its government to obstruct or suffocate China’s energy transport lanes in the event of hostilities it in an effort to control Chinese operations in Taiwan Strait. China will likely need to fortify its strength transports from the Middle East in order to prepare for that situation.

However, the Chinese see this exposure from two very distinct angles. A US naval blockade on energy imports would worry China less than the prospect of a full-scale conflict with its power rival, on the one hand. Global power market upheaval would be important, but it is unlikely to be the deciding factor in any US-China conflict.

However, despite Beijing’s concerns about a possible US blockade of Middle Eastern energy imports, the cost-benefit analysis does not support the presence of Chinese troops there. Beijing would need to deploy at least a near-peer military in order for China to build efficient and ample capabilities to combat the US. Anything less would not solve China’s flaws in any case.

The US’s regional military budget currently exceeds$ 70 billion. China will have a$ 224 billion defense budget in 2023. Beijing would need to spend at least one-third of China’s overall defense budget if it were to match the level of military spending Washington is currently making in the area.

Given that the West Pacific, which receives the majority of China’s military interest, is its main theater and most serious geopolitical threat, this is obviously not cost-effective.

As a result, China has created alternative, less expensive strategies to reduce its challenges to energy security. Beijing has worked to mediate harmony agreements between long-standing rivals in order to put an end to regional wars.

It is integrating and entwining itself with the local players’ future economic architecture. Additionally, it is attempting to foster interconnectedness between China’s 1.4 billion people and energy-producing nations.

These resources, when combined, might be far more efficient than military equipment ever was. & nbsp,

Regarding China’s expanding appearance in the Middle East, whatever form it takes, National strategists have conflicting opinions. Many experienced American diplomats are also slowly excited to see China be enmeshed in a location that is plagued by conflicting conflicts, even though Washington is convinced that Beijing wants to replace the US as the country’s security guarantor.

However, regardless of whether the US finds it interesting or appropriate, China will still participate in the area in its own method. The country’s social, economic, and political existence will be a force to be reckoned with even if Chinese troops always deploy in large numbers to the Middle East.

The Syndication Bureau, which holds rights, provided this content.

At the Stimson Center in Washington, DC, Yun Sun serves as the director of the & nbsp, China & NbSp program and a co-director for the AndnBsP, East & NBP, Asia program.

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Cambodia navigates nexus of crises

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Climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical conflicts have caused enormous disruptions to energy and food markets, driving prices to record highs, impacting the poor most severely. In Cambodia, hard-earned development gains were lost, and the country’s Human Development Index regressed to its 2018 level.

The cascading energy, food and financial crises impacted economic, education, employment and health outcomes, particularly for the most vulnerable. 

At the onset of the pandemic in 2020, the Cambodian government upscaled its social assistance. More than 700,000 poor and vulnerable households received cash assistance to offset the socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic.

In 2022, about 500,000 additional near-poor households were included to minimize their vulnerability to the impacts of floods and inflation.

Undoubtedly, these measures slowed the loss of development and the slide of vulnerable households into poverty. But immense pressure was exerted on public finances and the financial resources available for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) had to be repurposed. 

Even before the pandemic, achieving the SDGs was highly dependent on sustained investment, the adoption of effective policies, and the ability to implement them on time.  Although rapid economic recovery in Cambodia is attracting foreign direct investment, refueling the economic engines and creating jobs is still vulnerable to external shocks and uncertainties.

Interconnectedness

Although fuel and commodity prices have eased globally to varying degrees, concerns remain, as they are still above historical averages. Dependence on fossil fuels is causing a current-account deficit in the country.

In 2021, about US$57 million were spent on fuel subsidies in Cambodia. In January and February 2022 alone, the subsidy accounted for $31 million – resources that could have been invested in development. 

A floating community in Cambodia with rooftop solar panels (2019). Photo: UNDP

A 2020 study indicated that Cambodia could save $250 million by 2040 in direct power-system costs if the national energy grid mix was 14% solar photovoltaic, notwithstanding other indirect environmental and socio-economic impacts (such as a 38% increase in job creation). 

Such socio-economic gains cannot be underestimated. Also, the performance of the energy sector directly affects the country’s climate agenda. Cambodia increased its mitigation ambition with an emissions-reduction target of 41.7% by 2030. This included specific targets in areas such as energy efficiency. 

Cambodia remains highly vulnerable to climate-change impacts. The increased frequency of extreme weather events is making harvests more unpredictable and reducing crop productivity, threatening food security and farmers’ livelihoods, notwithstanding other types of loss and damage.

In 2020, a 50% prevalence of food insecurity was reported in Cambodia. A study by the Ministry of Economy and Finance assessed that Cambodia’s expected GDP could decline by almost 10% by 2050 because of loss and damage due to climate change. Recovery requires public investments that will further reduce fiscal space. 

The country is at a crossroads 

New opportunities can emerge from the crisis. Innovation is vital to renew development momentum and improve resilience. This would require new technologies, business models, policy frameworks, and social advances that prioritize synergies across energy, food, and finance. 

For instance, low-carbon farming offers the opportunity to optimize the use of fertilizers, raise agricultural yields, and reduce environmental impact. Clean energy improves the resilience of the agriculture sector and accelerates agri-food value chain improvement through secure irrigation, cold storage, and the use of agricultural residues for clean cooking – a health concern for rural women and girls. 

Energy efficiency plays a key role by bringing gains in different sectors of the economy and reducing energy sector vulnerability and energy uncertainty. The National Energy Efficiency Policy identified that Cambodia has the potential to save 12.5 terawatt-hours of energy (1.07 million metric tons of oil equivalent) by 2030 through energy efficiency measures. The financial savings could be reallocated to support development priorities and the SDGs. 

Recalibrating public financial management is vital through the integration of the SDGs in the budgeting process, exploring new approaches to revenue mobilization and reforming wasteful agricultural, food, and fossil-fuel subsidies. Cambodia has developed a methodology for monitoring and tracking SDGs-related expenditures in the national budget system, which is expected to be institutionalized soon. 

Finally, as a Least Developed Country, Cambodia has been benefiting from concessional financing, but once it graduates from LDC status, its financial architecture will progressively evolve.

Unlocking private capital and scaling up private-sector investment is key to expanding SDG-related investments. It will require removing barriers to direct financing from private institutions such as high interest rates, short repayment periods, and stringent collateral requirements, as well as prioritizing SDGs’ impact investments.

This is where blended finance can also de-risk investments in the agri-food sector and clean energy, to boost business but also food and human security. 

The road to resilience passes by the energy, food, and finance nexus. The risks posed by this nexus will become more significant because of growing demand for energy and food in a context of uncertainty and decreasing domestic and international financial resources for development.

A systemic approach to policymaking and investment that considers their interconnectedness, multi-sectoral nature and the need for multi-actor partnerships prioritizing synergies across energy, food, and finance is needed to break the vicious cycle of vulnerability. 

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Don’t underestimate China’s ability to catch up with the West

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Investment strategy: Not a time to play the hero

David Woo voices skepticism about the smooth passage of the debt ceiling deal and ponders the motivations behind Kevin McCarthy’s actions. He discusses the performance of GPM’s portfolio trades and a bullish outlook on gold due to the debt ceiling situation.

Ukraine: What next and to what effect?

Uwe Parpart questions the likelihood of a successful major offensive by Ukraine without air superiority and highlights the perspective of General Mark Milley, head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, who states that the war cannot be won militarily by Russia and predicts continued fighting until a settlement is negotiated.

The China bailout that wasn’t

David Goldman writes that while China’s post-Covid recovery has been below expectations, with weak consumption and property investment and an underperforming equity market, China’s exports to developing markets, especially in the auto sector, are showing strength, with China becoming the world’s largest auto exporter in April.

Russian air offensive intensifies as Ukraine grapples with stalemate

James Davis assesses that the war in Ukraine remains in a state of attrition, with Russian forces focusing on gradually weakening Ukrainian manpower and infrastructure. Both sides lack the readiness for large-scale offensives, leading to a probable continuation of the current stalemate with increased air and missile attacks.

China’s C919 passenger jet’s maiden voyage could invite US sanctions

Scott Foster writes that China’s COMAC could surpass Boeing to become China’s second-largest commercial aircraft supplier after its C919 passenger jet successfully completed its first commercial flight. There are concerns, however, that Washington may impose export restrictions on COMAC’s US suppliers.

Japan likely to benefit from ‘de-risking’ China, at least in the short run

Scott Foster believes US-imposed chip export restrictions are expected to have a limited impact on Japanese equipment makers in the short term, investments by TSMC, Micron and Rapidus in Japan’s semiconductor industry are anticipated to significantly enhance production capacity and technological sophistication.

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Ukraine war gives China’s yuan a needed boost

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The Chinese economy’s sheer size and rapid growth are impressive.

China maintained one of the highest economic growth rates in the world for more than a quarter of a century, helping lift over 800 million people out of poverty in just a few decades.

The country is the largest exporter in the world and the most important trading partner of Japan, Germany, Brazil and many other countries. It has the second-largest economy, after the United States, based on the market exchange rate – and the largest of all based on purchasing power.

And yet the yuan still lags as a major global currency. The war in Ukraine, which started in February 2022, may change that.

As a professor of finance and expert on international finance, I understand how this geopolitical conflict may put China’s currency on the next phase of its path to becoming a global currency – and prompt the onset of the decline of the US dollar from its current dominance.

Chinese yuan’s slow progress

China has long wanted to make the yuan a global force and has mounted significant efforts to do so in recent years.

For example, the Chinese government launched the Cross-Border Interbank Payments System, or CIPS, in 2015 to facilitate cross-border payments in yuan. Three years later, in 2018, it launched the world’s first yuan-denominated crude oil futures contracts to allow exporters to sell oil in yuan.

China has also emerged perhaps as the world’s largest creditor, with the government and state-controlled enterprises extending loans to dozens of developing countries. And China is developing a digital yuan as one of the world’s first central bank digital currencies. The trading hours for the yuan were recently extended on the mainland.

Thanks to these efforts, the yuan is now the fifth-most-traded currency in the world. That is a phenomenal rise from its 35th place in 2001. The yuan is also the fifth-most-actively used currency for global payments as of April 2023, up from 30th place in early 2011.

China’s yuan is gaining ground as an international currency. Photo: Facebook

Rankings can be misleading, though. The yuan’s average trading volume is still less than a 10th of the US dollar’s. Moreover, almost all trading was against the US dollar, with little trading against other currencies.

And when it comes to global payments, the actual share of the yuan is a mere 2.3%, compared with 42.7% for the dollar and 31.7% for the euro. The yuan also constituted less than 3% of the world foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2022, compared with 58% for the dollar and 20% for the euro.

US dollar’s dominance questioned

The US dollar has reigned supreme as the dominant global currency for decades – and concern about how that benefits the US and potentially hurts emerging markets is not new.

The value of the US dollar appreciated significantly against most other currencies in 2022 as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. This had negative consequences for residents of almost any country that borrows in dollars, pays for imports in dollars, or buys wheat, oil or other commodities priced in dollars, as these transactions became more expensive.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, the US and its Western allies put sanctions on Russia, including cutting Russia’s access to the global dollar-based payments system known as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT. That clearly displayed how the dollar can be weaponized.

With Russia largely cut off from international financial markets, it stepped up its trade with China. Russia began receiving payments for coal and gas in yuan, and Moscow increased the yuan holdings in its foreign currency reserves. Russian companies like Rosneft issued bonds denominated in yuan. According to Bloomberg, the yuan is now the most-traded currency in Russia.

Other countries took notice of Russia’s increasing use of the yuan and saw an opportunity to decrease their own dependency on the dollar.

Bangladesh is now paying Russia in yuan for the construction of a nuclear power station. France is accepting payment in yuan for liquefied natural gas bought from China’s state-owned oil company.

A Brazilian bank controlled by a Chinese state bank is becoming the first Latin American bank to participate directly in China’s payments system, CIPS. Iraq wants to pay for imports from China in yuan, and even Tesco, the British retailer, wants to pay for its Chinese imported goods in yuan.

The combined dollar amount of these transactions is still relatively small, but the shift to yuan is significant.

Yuan still not freely available

China keeps a tight grip on money coming in and out of the country. Such capital controls and limited transparency in Chinese financial markets mean China still lacks the deep and free financial markets that are required to make the yuan a major global currency.

For the yuan to achieve a truly global standing, it needs to be freely available for cross-border investment and not just serve as a payment medium to accommodate trade.

But the war in Ukraine may have just made it feasible for the yuan to eventually join the ranks of the dollar and the euro – even if the volume isn’t there yet.

And any US policy decisions that weaken the reputation and strength of US institutions – such as the recent drama over raising the debt ceiling, which brought the government to the brink of default – will accelerate the rise of the yuan and decline of the dollar.

Tuugi Chuluun is an associate professor of finance at Loyola University Maryland.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Pheu Thai shelves digital cash plan

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Pheu Thai’s digital wallet scheme will be shelved for the time being to make way for the social welfare policies of the Move Forward Party (MFP), according to the party’s secretary-general, Paopoom Rojanasakul.

Speaking after a meeting of the party’s economic team yesterday, Mr Paopoom said while the country would still benefit from further economic stimulus, the scheme, which would cost 560 billion baht, will be put on hold.

The decision was taken to allow the MFP to make good on its promises to improve social welfare through policies which analysts have estimated would cost around the same as Pheu Thai’s digital wallet scheme, he said.

The MFP, which will lead the formation of the coalition government, has vowed to focus on education, children, people with disabilities and retirees.

Mr Paopoom said the meeting also discussed which of the party’s economic policies will be pushed at talks with other coalition partners. These will include tax reforms, measures to boost exports and foreign direct investment, tackle non-performing loans, especially in the SME sector, and other problems relating to ageing society tax reforms.

The party wants to seek new markets for the export sector with a focus on the Middle East and develop products and services to meet market demand better. It also advocates a flexible policy to attract FDI, and there will be no “one size fits all” approach, he said.

With regards to non-performing loans in the SME sector, Mr Paopoom said defaults are on the rise and measures are needed to tackle the problems before they worsen.

He said the team debated ways to find new sources of revenue to offset expenditures which are expected to spike, as well as how to increase efficiency in the agriculture sector and the appropriate minimum wage.

Mr Paopoom said the minimum wage and the establishment of new economic zones would be raised at a June 6 meeting with prospective coalition partners.

He declined to comment on the MFP’s economic policies, which have come under criticism as they would result in higher taxes, saying every policy has its advantages and disadvantages.

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Singapore’s plant-based entrepreneurs are targeting meat eaters

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In an unassuming butcher’s shop on Singapore’s Ann Siang Hill, juicy steaks hang from hooks in the windows. Local favourites – chicken satay skewers and beef rendang – sit in cool glass booths. 

But the meatiness is an illusion, the satays are soy-based and the steaks pumped up with shiitake mushroom. But, Love Handle, Asia’s first plant-based butcher, is not targeting Singapore’s vegans, or the vegetarian diets of the country’s Buddhist and Hindu communities. About 70% of its customers are meat eaters and its mission is to reach the mainstream. 

“Our target audience is specifically not vegans,” said Ken Kuguru, Love Handle’s CEO and founder. “It’s a bit of a paradox. [But in everything] we are a little bit paradoxical.” 

Love Handle CEO and co-founder Ken Kuguru (right) works to bring meaty flavours to plant-based dishes at his meat-free butcher. (Photo supplied)

As a city-state that imports more than 90% of its food and has little room for actual livestock, Singapore has a vested supply chain interest in shifting from traditional meats. 

Last year, a three-month chicken export ban from Malaysia, which provides the Lion City with about 34% of its poultry, halted the normal inflow of approximately 1.8 million broiler chickens a month. The ban caused a hike in poultry prices and concern over the country’s food security.

At the same time, environmental sustainability concerns are pushing many in Singapore and beyond to rethink their diets to reduce consumption of animal products. Restaurants and suppliers are increasingly following a similar path as Love Handle in using plant-based foods to reach customers beyond just vegans and vegetarians. Though challenges remain in making a convincing meat substitute, a rising class of Singaporean food entrepreneurs are betting on new techniques to recreate favourite dishes in a more eco-friendly way. 

For some of them, this isn’t just a business decision – it’s a way to possibly prevent the worst outcomes of global climate change while preparing for a new world brought on by environmental crises.

Hawker Neo Cheng Leong (right) and his apprentice Lim Wei Keat at Neo’s chicken rice stall in Singapore. Recent chicken export bans have triggered food supply chain fears for the country, which imports 90% of its food. (Photo: Roslan Rahman/AFP)

In the Lion City, about 7% of the population are vegan or vegetarian, according to a 2020 poll by research firm YouGov Singapore. Individual reasons for the diet typically include environmental and health concerns, which together accounted for 70% of the reasons to give up meat.But it is unlikely that change will be driven by the small minorities who are willing to fully embrace a plant-based diet. 

“There’s a lot of dishes that already cater to this community,” said Kuguru. “It’s established, it’s traditional, it’s there – but it hasn’t grown.”

To penetrate beyond this small and set demographic, he believes it’s important to emulate the “meaty” flavours that might hold people back from moving away from animal proteins. 

Love Handle’s products replicate the umami tones of meat by catalysing the natural chemical interactions released from vegetables through the cooking process. Some plant-based companies replicate meat’s bloody qualities through leghemoglobin, a red protein found in soybeans. 

These kinds of efforts are already showing promise in the marketplace as consumers around the world gain a taste for the meat-free lifestyle. According to Bloomberg Intelligence data, the global market for plant-based foods could see fivefold growth by 2030. 

On the other hand, the quantity of meat produced over the past 50 years has increased threefold and remains on an upward trajectory, according to an October report on sustainable food by accounting giant PwC’s strategy consulting business. 

Another report by the Stockholm Environment Institute a month later stated animal-based foods could be responsible for at least 16.5% of total greenhouse gas emissions. The report warned that if current consumption trends continue, it will be impossible to keep global warming below the 1.5° Celsius mark and increasingly challenging to stay below the 2° Celsius upper limit.

Vegan alternatives of popular local food … appeal[s] to the masses, draws them in to give vegan food a try”

LK Ong, Chef, VeganBliss

The high environmental stakes have provided extra motivation to those hunting the elusive secrets of re-creating meatiness. 

For VeganBliss restaurant, which opened last year amongst the bright Peranakan shophouses of Joo Chiat Road, the key to selling a wider market on sustainable eating has been emulating not just the meat, but also the meal. The restaurant’s “roast chicken rice” bestseller is made from natural gluten but resembles the sliced fillets found at most of the country’s popular hawker food markets. 

“Making vegan alternatives of popular local food … appeal[s] to the masses, draws them in to give vegan food a try, [and shows them] that the switch to veganism doesn’t entail sacrificing your favourite food,” says LK Ong, chef at VeganBliss. 

For other restaurants, branching out from familiarity of local favourites has raised a challenge.

“In Asia, we eat based on tradition. You eat what you do because that’s what your mum did and grandmother did,” said Christina Rasumussen, a chef and entrepreneur. “But this doesn’t work for our planet anymore … we have to change.” 

Chef and entrepreneur, Christina Rasmussen is tackling preconceptions of what a plant-based diet should look like. (Photo supplied)

After working at Michelin-starred restaurant Noma and a plant-based collective in her native Denmark, Rasmussen moved to Singapore in 2022. When launching Mallow, her first pop-up concept in the city-state, she grappled with the challenge of how to integrate a vegan business into a culinary culture that celebrates local dishes such as poached Hainanese chicken rice and seafood laksa soup noodles and where traditional hawker food markets have gained UNESCO heritage status.  

“Overall, vegan concepts are not popular like you may find in other western cities,” she said.

Most of Mallow’s customers were not vegan. As she prepares to launch her first permanent restaurant, Fura, she has consciously moved away from “plant-based” or “plant-forward” labels, to instead focus on “what our diet could look like in the future, due to climate change”. The menu will use ingredients that are in abundant supply, including insect proteins. 

“We don’t openly brand ourselves as being vegan on purpose as it turns many away, instead we say plant-focused,” Rasmussen said. “[We’re] slowly changing people’s perceptions of what being conscious can look and taste like.”

Meat-free roast chicken fillet made from gluten resembles its animal-based counterpart. (Photo: Amanda Oon/Southeast Asia Globe)

As a small island metropolis, making sustainable diets the norm in Singapore will rely on sustainable supply chains.

Last year’s upheaval of chicken imports brought this fact into stark relief. 

“We intend to grow more food locally to serve as a buffer in times of supply disruption,” said Grace Fu, minister for sustainability and the environment, in a parliamentary response to the chicken situation.

Fu and others in government used the issue to promote Singapore’s “30 by 30” campaign, an ongoing effort that aims to boost domestic food production to about 30% of everything consumed in the city-state by the end of the decade. 

A demonstration for flavour smell testing room at ADM’s Plant-based Innovation Lab in Singapore. (Photo: Roslan Rahman/AFP)

Restaurants including Love Handle and Fura focus on native ingredients such as soybeans, jackfruit and mushrooms. But the market still faces serious challenges in cost accessibility. Currently, Love Handle’s prices parallel those of high-end meat butchers in the city. 

“Green Rebel” beef steak, made from mushrooms and seasoned with Cajun spices, costs $5.91 (SGD 8) for a 180 gram portion, while a 100 gram packet of vegetable “sausage” mince is priced at $5.17 (SGD 7). 

In comparison, $10.16 (SGD 13.75) can buy 500 grams of Australian grass-fed beef mince and a 250 gram New Zealand striploin beef steak costs $8.49 (SGD 11.50) at local supermarket FairPrice. At local wet markets, prices can be even cheaper. 

“In order to bring plant-based meats closer to the [meat-eating] consumer, the company will often add in additives, flavourings, colours, textures – when you add in all these new ingredients, you add to the cost, you add to the energy consumed in the process,” said Willam Chen, a professor in food science and technology at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University. 

“Subsequent processing of plant-based protein foods to suit consumers’ demand also needs energy. There is no holy grail.”

Nuggets made from lab-grown chicken meat are displayed during a media presentation in Singapore, the first country to allow the sale of meat created without slaughtering any animals, in December 2020. (Photo: Nicholas Yeo/AFP)

To address this issue, some innovation hubs are developing alternative proteins grown from animal cells in labs. Last year, Singapore became the first country in the world to grant regulatory approval for the sale of lab-cultured meat.

It’s a sector of innovation that fascinates Kuguru. For Love Handle’s next venture, he is  partnering with a research lab to fuse animal and plant cells to create alternative proteins at a larger scale. 

While not involving the slaughter of live animals, these new hybrid meats would not be considered vegan. But Kuguru is confident this move will not shut most vegans out.

“Anecdotally, the vast majority of vegans and vegetarians opted to move to a vegan and vegetarian diet because of either environmental reasons or animal cruelty reasons,” he said. “For those groups, moving to hybrid meat products would solve their core issues and allow them to reintroduce sustainable and ethical meat products back into their diets.”

As companies vye to keep up with consumer tastes, the wider industry has a more pressing issue on its plate. For Kuguru, switching to greener alternatives from traditionally farmed, animal meats may quite literally be a way to save the earth. 

“Given the data on the beef industry, the carbon emissions, the amount of land that’s available, the math doesn’t work,” he said. “The planet is going to implode.”

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BRICS expansion and a message to the West

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Saudi Arabia is in talks on joining BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB), a precursor to inclusion in a club that comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Extending membership to Riyadh would signal the bank’s interest in challenging the West’s monopoly over global financial institutions and represent a counterweight to rich-country clubs such as the Group of Seven, which are seen as neocolonial structures, especially in the Global South.

Saudi Arabia’s financial heft would give the BRICS – or BRICSS? – bank a more prominent role in multilateral funding and is aligned with the group’s plans to create alternative financial structures not dominated by Washington.

Critics often point out that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank tend to be structurally under-represent the Global South in their decision-making, and are too closely aligned with Western foreign-policy goals. As global funds shrink away from investments in Russia and China, the NDB might offer an alternative.

In this context, the entry of Saudi Arabia to BRICS would send a message that its current and future members are likely to seek alternative structures of global governance and financing. The West seems to have taken note: The G7 this year invited India, Brazil, the African Union, Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea as observers.

Double standards

Like current BRICS members, Saudi Arabia is neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One factor behind this is that while BRICS states are largely in sync with the post-World War II consensus on the sanctity of national borders and sovereignty, they share a mutual frustration with the West’s double standards in this area.

The calamitous aftermath of US president George W Bush’s Iraq invasion, which killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, resonates as a painful reminder of that hypocrisy.

Where BRICS member states diverge markedly from their Western counterparts is on the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs, as they all operate under vastly different regime types and don’t comment on one another’s domestic politics. Politically, this is broadly the glue that keeps the BRICS together.

Saudi Arabia joining BRICS would cement this geopolitical trend while reminding Washington of its diminishing clout. Despite US President Joe Biden’s journey to Saudi Arabia last year to persuade the kingdom to raise oil output to offset high global energy prices, Saudi Arabia did the opposite.

That decision, which no doubt benefited Russian President Vladimir Putin – and which Riyadh justified on the basis of economics – was viewed as a way to distance the kingdom from Washington’s approach to Russia and China.

At the World Economic Forum this year, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said Saudi overseas funding would now come with strings attached: It would be tied to economic reforms in recipient countries. As such, Saudi Arabia’s BRICS membership would give the kingdom a seat at the table as the grouping seeks to reshape the global financial landscape.

Domestically, at a time when the kingdom is planning to diversify its economy, expand its tax base, and reduce its generous public sector, BRICS membership would provide a platform to showcase a new approach to external funding that is responsible and prudent.

China has likely played a role in championing Saudi Arabia’s BRICS bid. In March, Saudi Arabia joined the China-centric Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a dialogue partner and was in active talks with China to conduct oil-related transactions in yuan. 

Not that Saudi membership would raise many objections from other BRICS states. None would be averse to de-dollarization initiatives as a form of insurance against repeated American weaponization of the global dollar-dominated financial system.

After taking over the NDB’s presidency in March, Dilma Rousseff, a former president of Brazil, emphasized the bank’s future strategy to fund projects in local currencies, thus nurturing domestic markets and shielding borrowers from volatile currency-exchange fluctuations.

Expansion hurdles

As more countries express interest in joining BRICS, there are likely to be many challenges for its members. 

First, the NDB is at least a decade from bypassing Western sanctions against Russia. To assuage investor concerns, the NDB suspended its financial involvement with Russia in March 2022 and has also stopped financing new projects in the country.

Second, there are territorial rivalries among the BRICS (China and India, for instance) that may hamstring the group.

Third, except for India, none of the other BRICS countries have the same rosy economic prospects they enjoyed at the group’s inception in 2009. 

Fourth, the NDB has relatively little to show in terms of investments. Since 2015, it has funded about 96 projects to the tune of US$33 billion, compared with the World Bank’s disbursal of almost $67 billion for the year ending June 2022.

Fifth, member countries are separated by vast distances, have different political systems, are not fully complementary on trade, and aren’t fully aligned on geopolitical postures.  

Finally, even on the issue of expansion, there are divergences on criteria among member states. Without resolving these issues, an expanding BRICS (or whatever acronym it transitions to) may collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.

Nonetheless, even as the world watches these developments unfold – with interest or trepidation – the potential BRICS expansion should be interpreted by the West as a message that it cannot advocate for an international geopolitical order or global financial system while also attempting to monopolize the definitions.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.

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China’s C919 takes off with US sanctions on the horizon

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China’s Comac C919 passenger jet made its first commercial flight from Shanghai to Beijing on May 28, completing a state-backed development, manufacturing and qualification process dating back to 2007 that now promises to shake up the global civil aviation business.

China Eastern Airlines, the local airline that flew the plane’s first flight, took delivery of the C919 last December. The short- to medium-range plane is expected to go head to head soon with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 for local sales and global markets.

One passenger reputedly told China’s Communist Party-run Global Times: “I am so excited to be one of the first passengers to fly on the C919. I am so proud that China now has such advanced aircraft manufacturing industry.”

The state-run Beijing Daily triumphantly declared: “After generations of endeavor, we finally broke the West’s aviation monopoly and rid ourselves of the humiliation of ‘800 million shirts for one Boeing.’”

Critics were quick to note that the C919’s engine, avionics and other key components are procured from US and European suppliers. The Wall Street Journal, for one, reported the C919 “faces a steep path to success.”

But the fact remains that Comac’s assembling of a modern passenger aircraft marks a major Chinese accomplishment.

To put things in one comparative perspective, Japan’s Mitsubishi Regional Jet, also announced in 2007, has suffered numerous humiliating setbacks and was embarrassingly renamed Mitsubishi SpaceJet before it was altogether canceled in February of this year.

A comparison with Boeing is also instructive. Airbus took a slight lead over Boeing in the China market a decade ago, but the gap abruptly widened in 2019 after Boeing 737 MAX aircraft crashed in Indonesia and Ethiopia due to defective flight control software.

In 2022, Airbus sent more than 100 aircraft in China while Boeing delivered fewer than 10. US-China trade tensions also appear to have contributed to Boeing’s poor performance in China, where Airbus has no such problem.

Airbus now accounts for more than 50% of commercial aircraft in service in China and appears likely to maintain or increase its market share with the establishment of a second A320 assembly line at its factory in Tianjin, China.

The agreement setting this in motion was signed during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China in early April. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury was one of about 60 French business executives who accompanied Macron.

An Airbus A320neo plane under construction for delivery to China Southern Airlines. Credit: Airbus.

Although the 737 MAX is now back in service and China Southern Airlines is reportedly planning to order 103 new aircraft from Boeing (and 111 from Airbus), data from Aviation Week shows orders for 697 C919 aircraft, most of them from Chinese airlines and leasing companies.

If current trends hold, it seems that Comac could – in fact, is likely to – soon overtake Boeing to become the second-largest commercial aircraft supplier in China.

This, of course, will depend on whether or not Comac can assemble hundreds of aircraft in time to meet delivery schedules while avoiding the quality problems that have plagued Boeing. In April, Boeing revealed that deliveries of a number of 737 MAX aircraft had been delayed due to quality problems at US subcontractor Spirit AeroSystems.

The Chinese government wants the C919 to have 10% of China’s domestic commercial aircraft market by 2025. Five years from now, Comac wants to be producing 150 C919 aircraft per year. China Eastern will reportedly take delivery of its second C919 in June.

However, there are concerns that the US Department of Commerce may try to ground the C919 by imposing new export restrictions on its US suppliers.

In January 2021, then-President Donald Trump had the Department of Defense add Comac to its list of companies owned or controlled by the Chinese military. As a result, US investments in Comac were banned.

In April of this year, US Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott of Florida sent a letter to Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security Alan Estevez complaining about the department’s failure to add Comac to its Military End User (MEU) list.

The senators wrote that:

“COMAC also works closely with Western aerospace companies, including firms that produce jet engines and many other components used in commercial and military aircraft. Given the CCP’s [Chinese Communist Party’s] commitment to acquire dual-use aerospace technologies through trade as well as forced joint venture and partnerships, these firms, and U.S. national security by extension, are at risk.”

For reference, Comac is owned by the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of China’s State Council (the chief administrative organ of the People’s Republic), state investment company Shanghai Guo Sheng, Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC, which is on the MEU list), Aluminum Corporation of China, China Baowu Steel, Sinochem, China Electronics Technology and other corporations.

Until now, it is not clear if the US Commerce Department will heed Rubio and Scott’s plaintive call. If it does, several US companies could be affected, including GE, Honeywell, Rockwell Collins and Parker Aerospace.

The Global Times commented that “The maiden commercial flight by China’s first domestically-manufactured large passenger aircraft… ushers in a new era for the cooperation between Chinese manufacturers and foreign companies.”

If that optimistic view is squelched, an aggressively nationalist response would be all but certain, to the detriment of US aerospace companies and the advantage of their Chinese competitors and Airbus. Mass production of the C919 would be delayed but not abandoned.

The C919’s cockpit is being developed by the Chinese Aeronautical Radio Electronics Research Institute, and will feature integrated 15.4-inch avionic Display Head units coming from Barco Display Systems of Atlanta, Ga. Credit: Comac.

As Wang Yanan, chief editor of China’s Aerospace Knowledge magazine, puts it: “We must have our own manufacturing capabilities for regional aircraft and large commercial airliners.”

Some 200 Chinese subcontractors supply the C919’s fuselage, wings, forged parts and other basic components and materials. Avionics and engines are likely to follow, with or without US sanctions.

Aero Engine Corporation of China is already developing an alternative to the LEAP jet engine manufactured by CFM International, a joint venture between GE Aviation of the US and Safran Aircraft Engines of France that powers the C919.

The question is, does the US want to participate in or decouple from the world’s most promising civil aviation market?

Follow this writer on Twitter: @ScottFo83517667

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