HQ Capital opens Singapore office; appoints head of Asia | FinanceAsia

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According to a business statement, international private equity firm HQ Capital has opened a new business in Singapore and appointed Michael Hu as managing producer and nose of Asia.

Hu will take over HQ Capital’s world professional commission and will be in charge of the Asia-focused investment and business growth activities. The new Singapore office will serve its private wealth and institutional investors in the region, whilst acting as a “gateway” for investment activities in markets including Australia, Greater China, Japan, Korea, India and Southeast Asia ( SEA ), according to the statement.

HQ Capital has invested in Asia since 1997 and has an company there since 2007. HQ Capital invests worldwide with private collateral managers, focusing on the little- to middle- market. The agency also has offices in New York, Frankfurt, London, Shanghai and Tokyo, according to its site. &nbsp,

Hu served as a senior member of the secondaries &amp, primaries funding group and led investment relations and personal success solutions before becoming a controlling director at secret investment house Ardian, which is based in Singapore. Hu served as a principal at Greenhill &amp, Co. in Singapore and Hong Kong before becoming a director of the Asia Pacific ( Apac ) capital advisory business. I have 15 years of financial and personal ownership experience.

Marc Brugger, chief executive officer and chief financial officer of HQ Capital, said in the declaration:” Michael has a tremendous track record in secret capital investment, on both a primary and secondary basis, as well as co- investments, and a solid network in the region. Our presence in Asia, a growing market with unmet investor demands, is further strengthened by the opening of our new Singapore office.

With a global platform and a specialized investment focus, Hu added,” We will offer long-term, bespoke investment solutions to private wealth and institutional investors looking for different access to private markets. I look forward to working closely with our investors, HQ Capital’s global team, and top- tier private equity managers in Asia”.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ), which is pending approval, has approved HQ Capital’s application for a capital markets services license. &nbsp,

¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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Cause to cheer, cause to jeer China stock bounce – Asia Times

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A debate between the bulls and bears is raging as a few measures for Chinese companies, which are off 20 % from their January lows.

The cows are betting that Beijing’s recovery efforts have been successful in bringing the market base and that there are numerous buying opportunities. The animals see more of a “dead kitty jump” after a US$ 7 trillion defeat and continued symptoms China’s economic holes are deepening.

Who’s straight? Whether President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang take the lead in that regard depends on what they will do next.

To be sure, the rise in promote charges, including those for the Hang Seng Tech Index, suggests that investors have overcame the stress and are now digesting Beijing’s ostensible game plan.

That requires very targeted more than broad-based stimulus and a greater emphasis on longer-term reforms to strengthen China’s large economic game and strengthen the role of high-tech and other high-value-added sectors.

However, this preliminary rally also signifies that Xi and Li have a new relationship with international investors.

On the time: Li Qiang and Xi Jinping in a document image. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

Communist Party leaders must accelerate efforts to end the house crisis, maintain regional government finances, and enhance China’s funds markets to support the new buying.

This week’s National People’s Congress and” Two Sessions” conferences made for an uneasy split- display for Xi’s group.

Beijing took a huge leap forward with strategies to destroy “new successful forces” to build a more stable and successful business on one monitor.

On the other hand, there were messages that previous policy mistakes are catching up with the business, as seen in fierce efforts to stop China Vanke, a significant property developer, from going bust.

Techniques taken since January to comfort international investors appear to be gaining some traction. These include the People’s Bank of China’s use of precise cash to help the country’s frightened areas and the “national group” of state-run cash ‘ stock purchases.

” We see China’s stock turnover possible growing more, especially if stimulus policies out of the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress meet marketplace expectations”, says Jonathan Fortun, an analyst at the Institute of International Finance.

” We are beginning to see the pandemic go away from the Chinese equity market, with significant reforms in the real estate industry under way and significant state-led purchases,” he continued.

Zhu Liang, investment director of AllianceBernstein Fund Management, points out that mainland stocks, particularly A- shares, are highly attractive in terms of valuation.

It’s a bit of a change from January when Chinese stocks were among the worst-performing asset classes on the planet. Since then, changes to the banks ‘ reserve ratio requirements and other efforts to boost liquidity have slowly but surely retracted the attention of the world to China.

Xi, Li, and PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng have yet to address the deflation narrative to the delight of many investors.

According to Citigroup economist Xinyu Ji, “further policy efforts are essential to foster and consolidate the price momentum.”

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, “markets are likely to remain volatile because the NPC fiscal package is insufficient to address the deflation concern and corporate earnings remain constrained.”

Hope can be sparked by reports that China Vanke, a country struggling for cash, is negotiating a debt swap with banks. The property industry is still very insolvent despite its stumble, which serves as a reminder of that. On Monday, Moody’s Investors Service cut China Vanke to a” junk” rating.

The most recent property developer is teetering toward default, China Vanke. Image: X Screengrab

” The rating actions reflect Moody’s expectation that China Vanke’s credit metrics, financial flexibility and liquidity buffer will weaken over the next 12 to 18 months”, says Kaven Tsang, an analyst at Moody’s.

That’s “because of its declining contracted sales and the growing uncertainty over its funding options in the face of the prolonged property market downturn in China.”

The onshore debt default watch involving Country Garden’s continues to generate unfavorable headlines. So there are doubts about China’s “around 5 %” economic growth target for this year without additional bazooka stimulus explosions.

Hitting the 5 % GDP goal will be” challenging”, says ING Bank economist Lynn Song, pointing to weak consumer confidence in Asia’s biggest economy. ” Trade is unlikely to be a major engine of growth as well, with global trade growth expected to remain below historical averages, especially given rising Sino-US trade protectionionism,” said one analyst.

Nomura Holdings ‘ economists concur that “achieving the’around 5 % ‘ growth target will be very challenging.”

They point out that China’s economy is still” still faltering,” as evidenced by the crackdown on local government debt in 12 high-risk provinces, the likely likely significant slowdown in investment in the new energy sector, and the lackluster data that has been made available for January and February.

The local government debt component of China’s economic puzzle is also undergoing growing and more stringent scrutiny. Banks are being advised by Xi’s regulators to halt their use of offshore bond-issuance services by local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ).

The$ 9 trillion mountain of LGFV debts poses a significant challenge for Xi’s efforts to deleveraging the economy. A state-owned company selling bonds to pay LGFV debt was one recent transaction that raised questions. The issue is that these practices are more prevalent than many investors might think.

It’s “rare to explicitly issue debt just to repay debt of another entity,” says economist Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century&nbsp, China&nbsp, Center at the University of California- San Diego.” Insect subsidies of LGFVs are everywhere,” he says.

They must deal with an increasingly difficult balancing act as Xi and Li try to deleverage the economy. Beijing could face new pressure from the outside as the world’s headwinds increase in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

” China’s economy is marred by insufficient domestic demand”, says Emily Jin, an analyst at advisory firm Datenna.

” For years, analysts have urged Beijing to boost consumption’s role in China’s economy, to little avail. The 5.2 % increase in consumer demand in 2023, largely attributable to a low base effect from pandemic consumption levels, may not hold up until 2024, according to Jin.

For now, China’s deflation trend is cheering many bond investors. In early March, yields on 30- year bonds hit a record low of 2.4 %.

Yet Beijing’s fiscal spending plans– and its debt issuance plans – mean Xi and Li must tread carefully. China, for example, plans to sell a record 1 trillion yuan ($ 139 billion ) of ultra- long- term bonds. That’s more than two times the average issuance between 2019 and 2023.

According to Goldman Sachs analyst Xinquan Chen,” the risk of a correction at the long end is high.”

According to economists, the recent spike in gold prices may be just as related to worries about Chinese deflation as US inflation.

” Gold is now the most overbought since March 8, 2022, where it peaked and declined from$ 2, 050 to$ 1, 650″, write Bank of America strategists in a recent note. Although we do n’t demand that, it is reasonable to anticipate that price momentum to wane and/or decline in the face of stretched daily relative-strength index conditions.

China’s stock market could be hampered by rising trade tensions ahead of the US election on November 5. According to Stephen Innes, a strategist at SPI Asset Management, the recent decline in Apple Inc.’s stock as iPhone sales in China decline are a” stark reminder of the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China.”

The most crucial missing element is a bold and specific strategy to solve the property crisis, which investors are currently looking at. It’s vital, analysts say, that Beijing devises a mechanism to get bad assets off property developers ‘ balance sheets.

Whether China cribs from Japan’s 1990s bad- loan mess or America’s 1980s savings and loan debacle matters less than authorities acting urgently and assertively.

In the short run, China’s housing minister, Ni Hong, says regulators intend to support “reasonable” financing needs of real estate developers. A so-called “whitelist mechanism” is a part of the plan to keep liquidity flowing to the property sector, which can account for about a quarter of GDP.

China has n’t intervened in the property market as aggressively as many anticipated. Image: Twitter

Last month, China Construction Bank, one of the nation’s biggest state- owned commercial institutions, said it had handled more than 2, 000 such projects, approving nearly$ 2.8 billion of pending disbursements.

However, much more incisive action may be required to keep the China stock bulls moving and give them the confidence to put their bets up. A definitive end to the crisis may be required.

That’s not to say Team Xi’s splashy pivot toward greater innovation and productivity is n’t a “buy” signal. China needs more productivity gains to achieve decent economic growth in the future, according to analyst Tilly Zhang of Gavekal Dragonomics, who is a member of Gavekal Dragonomics.

Yet, the move upmarket is very much still a work in progress. According to Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics,” the NPC Work Report last week commits to keeping “money supply and credit growth in step with the real GDP and inflation targets.” This may indicate that policymakers will try a little harder to push inflation higher than the 3 % target than the previous year.

But, Huang notes,” we think China’s low inflation is a symptom of its growth model built on a high rate of investment. We anticipate that inflation will remain low in the long run because reducing dependence on investment is still far off.

The good news, though, is that efforts to raise China’s economic game are beginning to pay some dividends.

” China’s economy is weak but it’s not that weak”, economist Shaun Rein at the China Market Research Group, told CNBC.

” If you’re a multinational, if you’re looking to drive growth over the next three to five years, the next China is China. It’s not India — India’s only a sixth of the GDP of China— it’s not Vietnam. These are small markets. So I actually think investors should be looking long- term at China again, it’s definitely investible”, he said.

” It’s too early to call a bull market, you still have to be very cautious, the economy is still weak – do n’t get me wrong — again the D word – deflation – looms over China, there is still a weak job market, but the valuations are too low”, Rein said.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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When Japan ends negative interest rates – Asia Times

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Japan surprised the world’s markets by implementing negative interest rates in January 2016 with an unconventional monetary policy to stop recession and boost economic development.

The policy, which was put in place after another economic policies failed to have the desired effects, aimed to encourage consumers to spend money, businesses to invest, and banks to lend by punishing holding extreme reserves.

Eight years later, this economic experiment may be coming to an end as soon as this month. A “growing amount” of Bank of Japan politicians are leaning in that direction, according to Reuters ‘ report, amid concerns about significant give increases in the upcoming month’s annual wage negotiations.

What can be anticipated after bad rates are made positive if Reuters and others who predict a scheme shift have it right?

A result of this change is likely to be a stronger yen, which may be a sign of the local economy’s growing optimism. However, maintaining the yen’s strength would likewise present significant challenges for Chinese exporters, who have benefited from the current currency weakness.

As investors adjust their portfolio in response to the plan change, Chinese stocks can be expected to experience uncertainty. Profitability and other industries that are vulnerable to interest rates can be expected to experience major movements.

Japanese government bonds ( JGBs ) make up the majority of global bond markets. Bond markets around the world will be reassessed by shareholders as a result of any change in Japan’s interest rate plan.

Uncertainty may also be present in the world’s capital markets.  Sectors with considerable exposure to Japan, including mechanical and customer electronics, can be expected to experience price changes based on dollar movements and the actual performance of key Japanese companies.

Investors ‘ attitudes toward these broad fields are greatly influenced by the performance of major Chinese companies like Toyota, Honda, Sony, and Panasonic. &nbsp,

Good earnings reports or geopolitical shifts by these companies can encourage global property prices in their respective sectors, while setbacks or deficiencies can cause downward force.

Investor sentiment will be important to understanding how a potential shift from negative to good interest rates might affect these Asian giants. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Another significant effect is that if home goods become more appealing due to higher interest prices, Chinese investors are more likely to reevaluate their global portfolios. &nbsp,

This would probably cause international market capital outflows, which could have an impact on property prices, particularly in areas and sectors that were formerly preferred by Japanese investors.

Media reports suggest that the nine-member board of the BOJ is not in agreement on whether to repeal the adverse rate policy at its future March 18 to 19 meeting.

However, investors around the world will be closely watching for any suggestions of a coming change that, if implemented, will have an impact on how markets will behave in the coming months and years.

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China’s Global South exports surge in 1st 2 months – Asia Times

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(Note: This report is a preview of the Asia Times Global Risk/Reward Monitor issue of March 13, 2024.)

China’s exports rose year-on-year by 10.3% in RMB, driven by 20% to 40% jumps in exports to India, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa and other countries of the Global South. This more than compensated for sharp declines in shipments to developed markets including the US (-7%), the European Union (-6.8%), and Japan (-2.5%).

Destination Export Import
Total 10.30 6.70
  European Union 1.60 -6.80
   United States 8.10 -7.00
   Japan -7.00 -2.50
   ASEAN  9.20 6.60
   R. O. Korea -6.80 12.30
   Taiwan, China 7.70 12.00
   Australia -4.80 2.20
   Russian Federation 15.50 9.90
   India 16.20 39.30
   Latin America 24.10 11.30
         of which: Brazil 37.70 37.10
   Africa 24.40 7.90
         of which: South Africa -10.90 14.80
 Source: China Customs    

The biggest gains were registered in BRICS members India (+16%), Brazil (+37.1%), and South Africa (14.8%), as well as Vietnam (+28.4%) and Indonesia (+22.2%). 

China’s exports to the Global South surpassed exports to all developed markets during late 2022 and 2023, as we have emphasized in past reports.

The preliminary January-February data show that this trend is accelerating. 

Chinese investment in the Global South through the Belt and Road Initiative as well as private channels explains part of this success. Outbound Chinese investment to the Asia-Pacific reason jumped by 37% to $20 billion during 2023 – “reshaping the global economy,” as William Pesek wrote in Asia Times on March 11, 2024.

China dominates supply chains in key industries including telecommunications equipment, solar panels an, above all, electronics. “Re-shoring” and “friend-shoring” have routed increasing amounts of Chinese trade through third parties, notably Mexico, India and Vietnam.

Asia Times published the first statistical analysis of the great Sinocentric shift in supply chains in April 2023. More recent studies, by IMF economists as well as World Bank, Peterson Institute and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) researchers, confirm this result.

The Chinese shipped semi-finished goods and components to third countries for final assembly and re-export to the United States. As the BIS wrote:

Firms from other jurisdictions have interposed themselves in the supply chains from China to the United States. The identity of the firms that have interposed themselves in this way can be gleaned from the fact that firms from the Asia-Pacific region account for a greater portion of suppliers to US customers than in December 2021, as well as accounting for a greater portion of the customers of Chinese suppliers.

The World Bank economists put it this way:

US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. Countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated into China’s supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China, especially in strategic industries. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China’s supply chains.

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‘Empower, Inspire, Transform’

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The Bangkok Post’s Ladies of the Year 2024 have been chosen as the outstanding people from a variety of areas who have inspired, influenced, and influenced change in their communities through their pursuit of excellence in the month of International Women’s Day.

Up until Thursday, there will be a number of in-depth characteristics of these people. The information will list their accomplishments, provide background information, and discuss their achievements.

We honor Narumon Chivangkur, Citi Country Officer and Banking Head, and Wallaya Chirathivat, President & Chief Executive Officer, Central Pattana Plc, now.

” Icon of financial light”

originating in the front

Wallaya Chirathivat , — , President &, Chief Executive Officer;  , Central Pattana Plc.

A light is a fixture in the active Thai business community: Central Pattana Plc ( CPN) President and CEO Wallaya Chirathivat.

Ms. Wallaya, who is the CEO of one of Thailand’s most important financial and property growth firms, goes beyond just being successful to being a visionary architect of the country’s future.

Her leadership has led the company to exceptional levels, and her career at CPN has been marked by pioneering accomplishments. Under her direction, the business properly launched a number of shopping center projects, thereby influencing the country’s financial history.

Her accolades demonstrate her management skill. Ms. Wallaya has been praised for her extraordinary accomplishments in driving operational success and encouraging impressive growth despite various difficulties. She has been named one of Forbes Asia’s best 20 businesswomen in 2022. She won the prestigious” Thailand Major CEO of the Year” honor in the real estate business group in 2023, a recognition of her remarkable management strategy and vision.

The revolutionary leadership of Ms. Wallaya has also won praise from around the world, with CPN receiving three big awards, including” Best CEO”,” Best CFO,” and” Best Investor Relations.” These accolades strengthen CPN’s status as a world leader in the field by demonstrating its quality in business and financial management.

Additionally, Ms. Wallaya’s commitment to sustainability has given CPN new levels. CPN continues to serve as the industry’s benchmark for sustainability with its listing in the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices ( DJSI) for real estate management and development as well as S&amp, P Global’s The Sustainability Yearbook 2024.

Importantly, CPN is ranked No. In the DJSI, Ms. Wallaya’s unwavering commitment to environmental stewardship ranks first nationally in the real estate control and development industry.

Ms. Wallaya’s trip is deeply connected to her mother’s legacy as well as her career success. At age 23, she joined the family business kingdom and set out to change the financial landscape. She demonstrated her strong organization skills and creative spirit by overseeing the change of Central Supermarket into the renowned Tops company.

Ms. Wallaya spearheaded the revitalization of Robinson and the development of Central Phuket, marking important milestones in her career, when she transitioned to the position of co-chief executive in her 30s. Her first property development project was at CPN in 2005, combining her in-depth knowledge of financial with her drive for innovation.

The redevelopment of the World Trade Center, now CentralWorld, which received the prestigious” Best of the Best Award” from the International Council of Shopping Centers in 2010, was Ms Wallaya’s most notable accomplishment.

This award recognized Ms. Wallaya’s multidimensional approach to financial development, showcasing both design excellence and successful sales.

Despite Thailand’s slow economic restoration, the company continues to invest heavily and have ambitious plans for long-term progress. CPN intends to develop five big mixed-use projects in various strategically located in Bangkok between 2023 and 2027, with a total investment of more than 100 billion baht.

Part of this ambitious plan, Central Park, which will debut in the second quarter of 2025, will redefine Bangkok’s industrial landscape, creating memorable parks in New York and London.

” International finance pioneer”

crystal ceilings blown off

Narumon Chivangkur, the mind of Citi Thailand and the country official, is also a member of the team.

Narumon Chivangkur stands as a pillar of revolutionary leadership in the realm of foreign banks in the center of Thailand’s bustling economic hubs. She embodies a blend of vision, experience, and a continuous pursuit of excellence with an famous 28-year occupation at Citi. Ms. Narumon is a visionary shaping the future of international banking in the region as the Citi Country Officer (CCO ) and Banking Head of Citi Thailand.

Beyond her recognized finance job, Ms. Narumon’s quest is enhanced by her unique skills. She performed on stage as a well-known pop singer in a bygone age, captivating audiences with her melodic words and captivating stage presence. Ms. Narumon excels in her authority by combining her special combination of creative flair and business acumen, which infuses her authority with originality and a deep understanding of the various facets of human expression.

Ms. Narumon’s trip exemplifies passion, knowledge, and a continuous pursuit of excellence. Her progression through the ranks, from a management relate in 1996 to her present position as CCO and banking mind of Citi Thailand, is a testament to her unwavering dedication to fostering growth and innovation.

In May 2023, Citigroup appointed Ms. Narumon as the fresh CCO for Thailand, making her the first woman to hold this position after the company sold its customer banking operations to United Overseas Bank in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. I want to help both local and international customers in their search for new business opportunities under Citi Thailand’s leadership role, she said.

Ms. Narumon has a wealth of knowledge in different fields, including foreign exchange, fixed-income securities, multi-award technique, and structured products. Her previous positions as head of business sales and arranging, head of derivatives and arranging, and nose of world markets and securities services at Citi demonstrate her management prowess. But beyond the office, she has an impact. Ms. Narumon is a steadfast supporter of diversity and inclusion, having previously served on the boards of directors of the Association of International Banks and the American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand. She has never before been more committed to empowering women in the workplace, opening the door for a new generation of leaders.

She has a clear vision for Citi Thailand, helping both domestic and foreign clients find new business opportunities and navigate the complex foreign market. Under her leadership, Citi Thailand is more than just a institution; it is also a proponent of international commerce and a change-maker. The bank’s” think globally” philosophy makes use of Ms Narumon’s vast network, which spans 95 countries, to quickly respond to client needs and promote business development across borders.

Under the direction of Ms. Narumon, Citi Thailand is dedicated to supporting their growth and fostering long-term success in the global market, from small and medium-sized businesses ( SMEs ) to large corporations. Her commitment to customer satisfaction is underlined by her proper focus on providing customized options, such as effective payment systems that can process thousands of transactions per minute. However, Ms. Narumon’s influence extends beyond banks.

Ms. Narumon also emphasizes the value of the team, focusing on developing the organization’s staff ‘ potential and efficiency, who are regarded as essential resources. With this support, bank workers can work in new techniques and gain new perspectives in order to adjust to the rapid changes in the business and technology earth.

As Ms. Narumon moves on to the next chapter of her distinguished occupation, she continues to inspire other women to strive for success. Her hard work, innovative thinking, and unwavering commitment to excellence function as a guiding light for upcoming decades of leaders.

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Breaking the glass ceiling

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Narumon Chivangkur, Citi Thailand’s Country Officer and Head of Banking,

PUBLISHED: 02:00, 22 Mar 2024

NEWSPAPER SECTION: News

Narumon Chivangkur stands as a pillar of revolutionary leadership in the realm of foreign banks in the center of Thailand’s bustling economic hubs. She embodies a blend of vision, experience, and a continuous pursuit of excellence with an famous 28-year occupation at Citi. Ms. Narumon is a visionary shaping the future of international banking in the region as the Citi Country Officer (CCO ) and Banking Head of Citi Thailand.

Beyond her distinguished career in finance, Ms. Narumon’s quest is enhanced by her unique skills. She graced levels as a well-known pop singer in a bygone age, captivating audiences with her melodic words and captivating stage presence. Ms. Narumon excels because of her distinctive fusion of artistic flair and business acumen, which infuses her authority with originality and a deep understanding of how people express themselves.

Ms. Narumon’s excursion embodies hard work, experience, and a continuous pursuit of excellence. Her progression through the ranks, from a control relate in 1996 to her present position as CCO and banking mind of Citi Thailand, is a testament to her unwavering dedication to fostering growth and innovation.

In May 2023, Citigroup appointed Ms. Narumon as the fresh CCO for Thailand, making her the first woman to hold this position after the company sold its client banking operations to United Overseas Bank in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. I want to help both local and international customers in the search of new business opportunities under the leadership of Citi Thailand, she said.

Ms. Narumon has a wealth of knowledge in different fields, including foreign exchange, fixed-income securities, multi-award technique, and structured products. Her previous positions as head of business sales and arranging, head of derivatives and arranging, and nose of world markets and securities services at Citi demonstrate her management prowess. But she has a far-reaching impact beyond the board. As well as serving on the boards of directors of the Association of International Banks and the American Chamber of Commerce’s board of governors, Ms. Narumon is a steadfast argue for diversity and inclusion. She has an unmatched commitment to supporting people in the business world, opening the door for a fresh generation of leaders.

Her goal for Citi Thailand is simple: to assist both domestic and foreign customers in identifying new company opportunities and navigating the challenges of the world market. Under her authority, Citi Thailand is more than just a institution; it is also a force for change and a proponent of international commerce. Ms. Narumon’s” consider internationally” process makes use of Citigroup’s extensive network, which spans 95 countries, enabling the bank to quickly respond to client needs and help market expansion across borders.

Under the direction of Ms. Narumon, Citi Thailand is dedicated to supporting their growth and fostering long-term success in the global market, from small and medium-sized businesses ( SMEs ) to large corporations. Her proper focus on offering customized options, such as effective settlement systems that can process thousands of transactions per minute, underlines her dedication to satisfying her clients. However, Ms. Narumon’s influence extends beyond banks.

Ms. Narumon also emphasizes the value of the staff, focusing on developing the effectiveness and potential of the staff, which are regarded as important assets of the organization. With this support, bank workers can work in new techniques and gain new perspectives in order to adjust to the rapid changes in the business and technology earth.

As Ms. Narumon moves on to the next section of her distinguished occupation, she continues to inspire other people to strive for success. Her hard work, innovative thinking, and unwavering commitment to excellence function as a model for future leaders.

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China’s outbound investment reshaping the global economy – Asia Times

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As economists obsess over plunging foreign direct investment into China, they risk missing a far more important trend: the giant waves of capital zooming in the other direction.

In 2023 alone, Chinese outward direct investment in the Asia-Pacific region surged 37% to nearly US$20 billion. That outflow speaks to how Chinese companies seeking growth abroad are altering financial dynamics from Asia to the West to Latin America.

And how China Inc’s investment ambitions are only just beginning to remake the global pecking order, despite Washington’s attempts to curb its influence.

“China’s ODI has risen substantially since the turn of the millennium,” says Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “Only starting to venture out into the international investment landscape in the mid-2000s, China was, in a sense, ‘late to the game.’ However, after rapid increases in the first half of the 2010s, China’s stock of ODI now surpasses that of Japan, Germany and the UK.”

And there’s still room for exponential growth. As of the end of 2023, Neumann notes, the overall stock of Chinese outward investment was just one-third that of the US, and still small relative to the size of China’s economy. At 15.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), Neumann says, “it’s well below” that of the major developed economies and the global average of 34%.

The reason, Neumann explains, is that Chinese firms have strong incentives to “go out” to explore global markets, including the so-called “Global South” developing markets. As China develops, its funding of ODI will be an increasingly vital channel to gain access to resources, markets and trade routes.

The dynamic marks an about-face from earlier policies de-emphasizing ODI in 2016 and 2017 and during the pandemic period. Yet an increasing amount of investment now “would align with broader Chinese economic and political development priorities,” Neumann says.

“We think that Chinese ODI flows are set to accelerate,” he adds. “In our baseline scenario, which envisages ODI rising in line with its recent trend, annual flows could rise by over 50%, with at least $1.4 trillion to be invested abroad between now and 2028.”

There’s an ever more dramatic upside scenario that HSBC is analyzing: China’s ODI rising in sync with per capita gross domestic product. That would mean a near-tripling of the recent pace of ODI to well over $400 billion per year.

China’s outgoing cash contrasts sharply with the 12% drop in overall FDI into emerging Asia in 2023. Roughly half of the investment China is making in the region is going to Southeast Asia, up 27% year on year.

Especially Indonesia. Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, which grew more than 5% in 2023, took in about US$7.3 billion of Chinese ODI last year.

“Indonesia has a track record of navigating shocks and maintaining economic stability,” says economist Satu Kahkonen, World Bank country director for Indonesia.

Incoming president Prabowo Subianto projects 8% growth for Indonesia over the next five years. The challenge, Kahkonen says, “is to build on strong economic fundamentals to deliver faster, greener and more inclusive economic growth.”

To achieve such growth, she adds, “it’s important to continue implementing reforms that remove bottlenecks that limit efficiency, competitiveness, and productivity growth. Doing so will enable Indonesia to accelerate growth, create more and better jobs, and achieve its vision of becoming a high-income country by 2045.”

Clearly, Chinese investment could help Jakarta achieve these lofty goals. That goes for other parts of Asia, too, as China’s global investment trends begin returning to pre-Covid-19 levels.

Significantly, the sectors in which China is focusing are shifting. For example, mining and real estate ODI have declined. More recently, manufacturing, transport, storage and postal services have been among the top sectors. Now, it’s technology, renewable and green energy, electric vehicles and digitalization.

Headline-grabbing EV sector investments include a joint venture between South Korea’s LG Chem and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt. Others involve mainland automakers putting manufacturing facilities in countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia.

China’s geographic priorities are pivoting, too. The US and Europe are less in favor, while Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East are seeing more ODI from Asia’s biggest economy.

“The allure of new global markets and evolving business models are driving Chinese enterprises to venture abroad and expand their presence on the global stage,” notes economist Yi Wu, an author of the China Briefing newsletter published by Dezan Shira & Associates.

This, of course, presents new challenges. “While this trend opens doors to promising opportunities for Chinese firms,” Wu says, “the complexity of navigating diverse regulatory landscapes in different countries can be challenging to their global endeavors.”

There’s much about China’s role in the global economy that is being misunderstood. One is the state of US-China ties, the globe’s most important relationship.

“If you think the US is decoupling from China, think again,” says economist Robin Brooks at the Institute of International Finance. “Look at the sharp rise in China’s trade surplus with key ‘trans-shipment’ hubs around the world. Stuff made in China is still heading to the US, just on a more circuitous route. There is no decoupling. Only relabeling.”

Yet the pivot that may matter most is how China’s cash is moving upmarket.

Wu notes that in recent years, Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) “presented tremendous opportunities for China’s ODI investors, leading to a significant uptick in the number and value of investments within these nations.” Yet such BRI projects covered just over 70 countries.

By the end of 2022, Chinese domestic investors had established what Wu calls a “robust global presence” with 47,000 offshore enterprises spanning 190 countries worldwide.

More than 60% of these enterprises were in Asia, 13% in North America, and 10.2% in Europe. That left roughly 16,000 overseas enterprises, around 34% in BRI countries.

All this means China Inc is methodically raising its “presence in the global market,” while “improving local infrastructure and creating massive jobs with their projects launched worldwide,” notes Yu Miaojie, president of China’s Liaoning University.

This includes Latin America. Thilo Hanemann, analyst at the Rhodium Group, notes that the US “is experiencing a post-pandemic boom in foreign direct investment, driven by the resilience of the US economy as well as new industrial policies that incentivize US manufacturing investment such as the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. Chinese companies are notably missing from the party.”

Instead, the burgeoning economies of the Global South are enjoying increased interest from the mainland.

“China’s engagement with Latin America has also been expanding rapidly,” says Wu of China Briefing.

A “substantial catalyst for this expansion,” he notes, was a nearly $3 billion transaction in Peru. There, China Southern Power Grid International acquired two Peruvian assets from Enel, Italy’s largest utility company. It speaks to how “Latin America emerged as a remarkable hub for M&A deals for Chinese enterprises,” Wu says.

Loletta Chow, global leader of EY China Overseas Investment Network, notes that “China remains Latin America’s second-largest trading partner and the region is gradually becoming a crucial economic and trade partner for Chinese enterprises.”

In a November report, EY China calculated that the mergers-and-acquisition deal value by Chinese enterprises in Latin America was $3.3 billion, up 185.9% year on year. The main targets were Peru’s power sector and advanced manufacturing and mobility sector enterprises in Brazil. 

EY Global notes that China Inc’s top interests in Latin America are electronics, cross-border e-commerce, agriculture, healthcare, culture and tourism, logistics, solar energy, and automotive, “signaling broad prospects for future collaboration between the two regions.”

It can also be a way to buttress China’s soft power in the region, notes Linda Calabrese, a research fellow at the Overseas Development Institute. “Therefore,” she says, “investing in renewables has positive non-monetary returns and can improve bilateral relationships.”

Margaret Myers, Asia-region director at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, notes that Chinese investors “remain focused on traditional sectors of interest, too, including those related to China’s own food and energy security.”

Some of these still account for a significant portion of overall investment, but investment within these sectors is also shifting in ways that are consistent with China’s growing focus on innovation,” Myers says.

In general, she adds, “the sorts of large-scale infrastructure projects” that once characterized BRI “are no longer as emblematic of Chinese investment in Latin American countries as they once were.”

In many parts of the region, Chinese interest in canals, rail, and other major transport and energy, she adds, “is being replaced by a growing emphasis on innovation, whether in information and communication technology, renewable energy, or other emerging industries, consistent with Beijing’s laser focus on its own economic upgrading and global competitiveness.”

More broadly, EY’s Chow adds that “China’s commitment to high-level openness and utilization of international platforms such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Summit, Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings supported the creation of an open world economy.”

This, Chow says, “has provided a more favorable policy coordination environment for the internationalization of Chinese enterprises. We look forward to the continued release of momentum in China outbound investment in the future.”

Of course, geopolitical currents are written between the lines in bold font. It’s worth noting that among the nations that saw a roughly 100% drop in engagement with China Inc investments between 2022 and 2023 were the Philippines, Mongolia and Papua New Guinea – all places that are at odds with Beijing on a variety of priorities.

As Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, tells Nikkei Asia: “There are various reasons but it is typically due to incorporation of political and economic risks. For example, the Philippines and China have had some cooling of bilateral relationships.”

So do domestic economics. China Inc isn’t making outbound investments in a vacuum. And China’s wherewithal to continue pouring heaps of cash into projects around the globe requires stabilizing the financial system and ensuring GDP growth ends 2024 as close to 5% as possible.

But the ways in which Chinese ODI is offering a fascinating split-screen counternarrative to faltering FDI at home is a potential megatrend that deserves greater attention.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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India signs 0bn free trade deal with four European nations

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A crane loads a cargo container on a truck inside the Mundra Port, India.Getty Images
By Peter Hoskins
Business reporter

India has signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with a group of four European countries that are not members of the European Union.

The deal with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) will see investments in India of $100bn (£77.8bn), the country’s trade minister says.

The EFTA is made up of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein.

The announcement comes as the UK and India have been holding negotiations over an FTA for the last two years.

“This landmark pact underlines our commitment to boosting economic progress and creating opportunities for our youth,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a statement.

“The times ahead will bring more prosperity and mutual growth as we strengthen our bonds with EFTA nations,” he added.

The agreement comes after almost 16 years of negotiations. Under this deal, India will lift most import tariffs on industrial goods from the four countries in return for investments over 15 years.

The investments are expected to be made across a range of industries, including pharmaceuticals, machinery and manufacturing.

“The agreement enhances market access and simplifies customs procedures making it easier for Indian and EFTA businesses to expand their operations in the respective markets,” the EFTA said in a statement.

India and the four EFTA nations now need to ratify the agreement before it can take effect, with Switzerland planning to do so by next year.

India is due to hold general elections this year as Mr Modi seeks a record third term in office.

In the last two years, India has signed trade deals with Australia and the United Arab Emirates.

Last week, the UK’s trade minister Kemi Badenoch suggested that it was possible that Britain could sign a free trade deal before India held its elections but said it would be “challenging” .

“I suspect that that is not necessarily going to be the case because I don’t want to use any election as a deadline,” she added.

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Taiwan training laser weapons on China’s drone threat – Asia Times

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Taiwan has teamed up with allies to develop a 50-kilowatt laser weapon system, marking a potential great leap in the self-governing island’s defenses against China’s rising drone threats and incursions.

The Taipei Times reported that Taiwan is rapidly advancing in the development of a pioneering 50-kilowatt vehicle-mounted laser weapon, which it aims to deploy on CM-32 Clouded Leopard armored vehicles by the end of the year.

The initiative, spearheaded by the National Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), marks a notable improvement on a low-powered prototype unveiled last year. The high-energy laser system under development is primarily designed to counter drones.

The effort highlights the institute’s global technological collaborations and the publication of research exploring operational synergies between laser technology and existing air defense platforms such as the missile-based AN/TWQ-1 Avenger.

While lasers can be used against ballistic and hypersonic missiles, a July 2021 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report states that a 1-megawatt laser may be needed to neutralize such threats.

While the Boeing YAL-1 airborne laser weapon was in that power range, it was canceled in 2010 due to high costs, impractical size and weight, technological immaturity and limited range due to atmospheric beam distortion.

However, solid-state laser (SSL) technology advancements and a resetting of goals to use lasers for point defense rather than missile defense have made laser weapons feasible.

Taiwan’s new laser weapon may become the “hard kill” component of its planned national drone defense system against intruding drones from mainland China.

In September 2022, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Taiwan is bolstering its defense capabilities with a US$143 million drone defense system developed by the NCSIST to counter the rising incursions of Chinese drones, particularly around its offshore islands.

SCMP notes that the system is designed to identify incoming drones through search radars, camera and frequency detection, jam the drones’ controls electronically and then capture them with nets.

China’s Caihong-5 armed drones are for sale on global markets. Photo: Xinhua

SCMP notes that Taiwan’s Defense Ministry plans to implement this system over the next four years across all military bases, ports and airports with an emphasis on 45 offshore islands and isolated locations, targeting not only Chinese military threats but also civilian drones used in gray-zone tactics.

Taiwan’s drive to develop a cost-effective short-range air defense system that can take down multiple drones is likely spurred by the potential dronification of a Taiwan Strait conflict.

In February 2024, Asia Times reported that China has revealed plans to transform its military operations by integrating advanced unmanned systems.

China’s strategy marks a shift toward drone-led special operations in war scenarios, including a potential conflict with the US over Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of flying vast distances, diving deep underwater and lying in wait for long periods.

The PLA is reportedly planning for a small-scale conflict between China and an unnamed neighboring country in 2035, with both sides agreeing to limit their equipment to small arms including small boats, drones and anti-aircraft guns.

In the scenario, the PLA is tasked with striking swiftly and silently at key enemy installations, including critical command and supply hubs, deep behind enemy lines.

Advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems hover over the battlefield after an initial attack, assess the damage and determine whether further action is required.

Furthermore, in December 2022, Asia Times reported that China had unveiled a catamaran drone carrier mothership, a new type of warship that could change the military balance in a conflict over Taiwan.

The catamaran drone mini-carrier, part of an experimental naval training force, can simulate enemy drone swarms, high-volume anti-ship missile strikes and distributed electronic warfare attacks.

The drone carrier could operate as part of a larger surface action group to direct drone swarms against shore targets or air defenses, allowing more traditional capabilities to be used more effectively.

The drones can have specialized payloads such as sensors, electronic warfare systems or explosive warheads.

This new type of warship could play a decisive role in a clash between the mainland and Taiwan, potentially launching drone swarm attacks to knock out Taiwan’s air defenses and enabling a “shock and awe” bombing campaign to take out critical military, government and civilian infrastructure.

China could seek to launch dronified small-scale military operations to take Taiwan’s frontline islands, Kinmen and Matsu, which are situated only three and nine kilometers away from the mainland.

The heavily fortified islands would likely play a vital role in Taiwan’s possible protraction strategy against a Chinese invasion, whereby their defenders would seek to buy time for US and allies to intervene in the first 90 days of a conflict.

A Taiwanese military outpost on Shihyu Islet, seen past anti-landing spikes along Lieyu Island in the Kinmen Islands, August 10, 2022. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

Taking cues from the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and Ukraine war, Taiwan could seek to use its new laser weapon to defend critical urban areas from suicide drone strikes, potentially eliminating the problem of limited and costly missile interceptors and the relatively poor performance of gun-based defenses.

In February 2024, Asia Times noted that if the PLA were to enter Taipei, it might face costly urban warfare in the city of seven million. Taiwan’s military is known to be preparing for that situation by acquiring “mobile, small, portable and AI-enabled” weapons, UAVs and counter-UAV systems.

Still, Taiwan may face challenges in delivering an effective laser weapon. Those include high development costs, diminishing beam power over distance, size and mobility restrictions, high energy requirements, limited suppliers for critical components and the need for specialized facilities to maintain the sophisticated weapons.

Taiwan has so far struggled to balance its acquisition of high-profile assets such as frigates and fighter jets with that of more survivable assets like shore-based anti-ship missiles, naval mines and anti-tank guided missiles, which are better-suited for an asymmetric defense strategy.

These competing strategic priorities may limit Taiwan’s resources and ultimately slow its laser weapons program.

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Gold, Bitcoin surges show black swan risk rising – Asia Times

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Gold continued to break price records on Friday, trading at US$2,183 an ounce at mid-afternoon, following a more dramatic rally in Bitcoin. Gold led Bitcoin in 2020 and 2021, during the Covid crisis. This time Bitcoin clearly led gold, suggesting that investors have more confidence in the high-tech alternative to the dollar.

Key to understanding how gold gauges geopolitical risk is the longstanding relationship between Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and the precious metal. Both are hedges against unexpected inflation or debasement of the dollar.

From 2007 through 2022, the gold price moved in lockstep with TIPS yields, as investors used them interchangeably. The seizure of more than $300 billion of Russian reserves after Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine changed that.

Foreign central banks hold $3.4 trillion of Treasury debt and all foreigners own more than $8 trillion. Confiscation of reserves persuaded many foreign investors, official as well as private, to shift to gold.

That’s why the value of gold predicted by TIPS yields remained very close to the actual gold price from 2007 to 2022, and then decoupled. Gold is now nearly $900 “rich” to TIPS yields. The divergence between TIPS yields and gold is at an all-time high.

This is all the more remarkable given the strong performance of world stock markets during the past several months and the subdued price of risk hedges in options markets. The cost of options on the S&P 500 (the VIX Index) or the cost of options on major currencies is close to its all-time low.

But options only provide hedges against short-term fluctuations, and their payout depends on the smooth functioning of derivative markets.

Investors evidently want to take out insurance against extreme events – the sort of trouble that might arise from a geopolitical crisis – although they are unwilling to pay much for hedges against short-term fluctuation.

Despite the tranquil appearance of markets, the likelihood of a black swan event is rising.

Follow David P Goldman on X, formerly Twitter, at @davidpgoldman

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